Phillip Seo

Professor John Alford

Elections 2022
25 October, 2022

2022 Midterm Elections Prediction:

Texas Political Background:
As the 2022 congressional midterm elections approach quickly, many Americans are
wondering who will win the crucial governor races that will decide future state election laws as
well as House and Senate seats that will determine control of Congress. Two states that are
talked about extensively are Texas and Nevada. To have a proper forecast as to who will win the
consequential elections in each of these states, it is important to look back at the states’ previous
voting records.
Texas has been particularly known for being a consistently conservative state as shown
with its previous election results, especially in the past presidential elections. Since 1980, the
Republican candidate for president has won the 40 electoral votes in the Lone Star State (Texas
270 To Win, 1). There have been numerous occasions in which the Republican presidential
candidate has decisively won over their Democratic opponent in Texas. In 1980, Ronald Reagan
won 55.3% of the popular vote while Jimmy Carter only won 41.4% of the popular vote (Texas
270 To Win, 1). In 1984, Reagan won again by 63.6% compared to Mondale’s 36.1% (Texas 270
To Win, 1). In 2000 and 2004, George W. Bush won 59.3% and 61.1% of the Texas vote
respectively and in 2020, Donald Trump won the state with 52.1% of the vote (Texas 270 To
Win, 1). Needless to say, conservatives have dominated Texas in the past presidential election
cycles.
As for the congressional elections since 1988, there hasn’t been a Democratic Senator
elected in Texas since Senator Bensten in 1988, although Beto O’Rourke was close to unseating
Ted Cruz in 2018 (Essig 2018, 1). In addition, regarding the House of Representatives,
Democrats had a majority within the population of U.S. representatives for Texas from 1988 to
2002 (Texas Ballotpedia, 1). They had as much as 21 seats compared to Republicans’ 9
congressional seats in 1992 (Texas Ballotpedia, 1). But after 1992, the Democratic majority
waned over time as more seats were added due to redistricting and census counting that
Republicans were able to win (Texas Ballotpedia, 1). In 2004, Democrats and Republicans had
an equal number of seats as they both had 16, but after that, Republicans consistently had more
House seats than Democrats had up to now (Texas Ballotpedia, 1).
As for Texas’s ideological position, all of Texas’s Senators with the exception of Senator
Bensten have had a lifetime rating of over 84 (Center For Legislative Accountability Lawmakers
Ratings, 1). The current U.S. Senators for Texas, John Cornyn and Ted Cruz have ratings of
87.16 and 97.11 respectively, making Texas’s general ideological position predominantly
conservative over the course of time.
As for main patterns that have occurred throughout the election history in Texas, the
biggest one is that conservatives have consistently won in congressional, gubernatorial, and
presidential elections over time as previously mentioned, including Governor Abbott himself. As
mentioned previously, there hasn’t been a Democratic Senator elected in Texas since Senator
Bensten in 1988 and since 1980, and the Republican candidate for president has won the 40
electoral votes in the Lone Star State (Essig 2018, 1) (Texas 270 To Win, 1).
Another pattern shift in the election history of Texas is within the Texas electorate itself.
Over the past century, Texas’s population has grown by about 40% and 91% of the Texans within
that population growth have been people of color, including Latinos, Black Americans, and
Asian Americans (Ramsey, 2021). These minorities have historically leaned Democratic, but
because of the way the districts are drawn, white voters have had disproportionate control over
elections for some time (Igielnik and Budiman, 2022) (Ramsey, 2022). However, because of the
minorities favoring the Democrats in the 2018 midterms for Texas, Beto O’Rourke was inches
away from pulling an upset against incumbent Senator Ted Cruz (Politico Texas Senate Election
Results 2018, 2018). The minorities, especially the Latino voters, may have a consequential role
in this upcoming governor’s race as O’Rourke attempts to run again for office to try and defeat
incumbent Governor Abbott.
Another significant change in the election history is the implementation of the voter ID
law. The voter ID law makes it harder for minorities who tend to vote Democratic to be able to
vote in elections as minorities tend to not have ID’s (The Impact of Voter Suppression on
Communities of Color, 2022). Hispanics are twice as likely and Black Americans are three times
as likely compared to white voters to not have an ID under the law (Texas voter ID law
discriminates against minorities, court rules, PBS, 2016). This has made voting harder in Texas,
especially for minorities who tend to vote Democratically, which may have contributed to
Texas’s consistent conservative history despite its population demographic shifts.

Nevada Political History:

Nevada is brewing up to be one of the most consequential midterm election races in the
country. Both the governor and Senate races are so close that they are considered toss-ups. The
Senate race could determine which party has majority control in Congress and the governor race
will determine future policies that are implemented within the state level. Nevada is a pivotal
state that must be won by either of the parties if they have any hope of securing a majority in
Congress or at the state government level.
Nevada has trended blue in recent presidential elections since 1988. In 1988, 2000, and
2004, the Republican presidential candidate won Nevada. In every other presidential election
between 1988 and now, Nevada has been won by the Democrat (Nevada 270 To Win, 1). In
1998, George H.W. Bush won 58.9% of the popular vote in Nevada and over time the
Republican vote has waned to where the average in the most recent elections is around 45.5%
except for 2000 and 2004 where his son George W. Bush won with 49.5% and 50.5% of the vote
respectively (Nevada 270 To Win, 1). The Democratic candidates who won Nevada include
President Bill Clinton who won by 3% and 1% in his elections, President Barack Obama who
won by 13% and 7% in his elections, Hillary Clinton who won by 2% in her election, and
President Joe Biden who won by over 3% in the 2020 election (Nevada 270 Win Win, 1). Even
though the margins between Republicans and Democrats have been really narrow, Democrats
have generally won presidential elections in the state of Nevada.
The Senate representation pattern usually leaned Democratic but had a Republican shift
during the mid 2000’s. (Nevada 270 To Win, 1). One of the Senate seats has been in Democratic
control for a very long time: Democratic Senator Harry Reid, who was the Democrats’ Senate
Majority and Minority Leader for a very long time, served from 1987 to 2017, and then
Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto succeeded him from 2017 up to now (Nevada 270
To Win, 1). However, for the other Nevada Senate seat, it’s a much more complicated story.
Democratic Senator Richard Bryan was elected in 1988 and served until 2000, and then
Republican Senator John Ensign got elected in 2000 and served until 2011 and Republican
Senator Dean Heller succeeded him from 2012 to 2018, in which he lost to Senator Jackie Rosen
in the 2018 midterm election who is currently still in office (Nevada 270 To Win, 1). So over
time, the Senate composition transitioned from fully Democratic to one Republican and one
Democrat for a while, and then back to fully Democratic control in current times (Nevada 270 To
Win, 1).
For the House of Representatives, Nevada has become more Democratic over time. In
1988, there was one Democrat and one Republican elected and that lasted until 1994 when the
Democrat lost to a Republican (Nevada 270 To Win, 1). In 1998, the House composition
switched back to one Democrat and one Republican (Nevada 270 To Win, 1). In 2002, another
district was added to Nevada and a Republican won making the composition two Republicans
and one Democrat, which changed in 2008 when one of the Republicans lost, switching the
composition to two Democrats and one Republican (Nevada 270 To Win, 1) (Nevada
Ballotpedia, 1). In 2010, the composition switched once again back to two Republicans and one
Democrat (Nevada 270 To Win, 1) (Nevada Ballotpedia, 1). In 2014, another district was added
to Nevada and Democrat won making the composition two Republicans and two Democrats
(Nevada 270 To Win, 1 ) (Nevada Ballotpedia, 1). In 2016, one of the Democrats lost making it
three Republicans to one Democrat and in 2018, that flipped to where there were three
Democrats and one Republican and that has stayed the same up to now (Nevada 270 To Win, 1)
(Nevada Ballotpedia, 1).
As for Nevada’s ideological position, Nevada’s Senator ratings are a little complicated. In
the 1970’s and 1980’s, Nevada generally had one Democratic and one Republican Senator who
had more conservative index scores in their respective ideologies. For example, Republican
Senators Ensign and Laxalt had conservative scores of over 90 while Democratic Senator
Richard Bryan had a liberal index score of only 56 (Center For Legislative Accountability
Lawmakers Ratings, 1) (Americans For Democratic Action, 1). As time progressed into the
2000s, Senators became more liberal in their ideological indexes. For example, Senators Reid,
Masto, and Rosen have had liberal index scores of over 90, with Masto having a score of 100 and
even Senator Heller who is Republican had a conservative index score of around 80, which is
lower than past Republican senators for Nevada (Center For Legislative Accountability
Lawmakers Ratings, 1) (Americans For Democratic Action, 1). The current U.S. Senators for
Nevada, Catherine Cortez Masto and Jackie Rosen have ratings of 100 and 95 respectively,
making Nevada’s general ideological position more liberal over the course of time.
 Nevada has always been sort of a purple state over the course of recent history. Nevada
has had its fair share of both Republican and Democratic Senators from Senators Heller and
Ensign to Senators Reid and Cortez Masto. Most recent presidential elections have been won by
Democratic candidates, as well as congressional elections as Nevada currently has 3 Democratic
representatives in the House as opposed to only 1 Republican and two Democratic U.S. Senators
(Nevada GovTrack, 2022). (270 To Win, 1).
A significant pattern involved in Nevada elections is the Latino factor: Latinos are a huge
voting block in the Nevada population as they are over 20% of eligible voters and 28.7% of the
overall Nevada population (Cullen, 2022) (Sanchez and Snyder, 2021). Latinos were considered
to be a stronghold demographic for the Democrats which allowed Democrats to slowly turn the
state more blue, but as of recently Republicans have slowly chipped away at the Latino voting
block once associated with them as Latinos believe that Republicans would better handle the
economy, inflation, and job stability which are the most important factors Latinos are
considering when they are voting (Cullen, 2022). With the Latino factor being volatile in this
election, it remains to be seen whether or not Nevada will keep up its blue streak in the 2022
midterms.

National Prediction:
The U.S. Senate:
One of the most important and consequential results of the 2022 congressional midterms
is which political party will control the Senate. Battleground races across the country are
considered toss ups and Americans are eagerly anxious to find out the results, which will
determine control of the Senate. The party composition for the U.S. Senate after the 2022
midterm elections will most likely be 50-50 again, like it is currently, giving Democrats the
majority control. There are 3 battleground states that will ultimately determine the balance of
power in the Senate: Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania (FiveThirtyEight, 2022).
Out of all of these states, Nevada may be one of the most consequential as Senator
Catherine Cortez Masto is the most vulnerable Democratic Senator up for reelection (McHugh,
2022). Recent polls have shown that the Senate election in Nevada is a dead heat
(FiveThirtyEight, 2022). However, Nevadans believe the economy and inflation are the top
issues in the state and voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to deal with issues
involving the economy (Golonka, 2022) (Dorn, 2022). It is very possible that challenger Adam
Laxalt will defeat incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto and take Republicans one step
closer to getting control of the Senate.
However, two other major Senate races to consider are Georgia and Pennsylvania. In
Georgia, Warnock continues to narrowly lead Walker in the polls due to his higher favorability
rating as Walker has been involved in numerous scandals, including his abortion scandal
(Breuninberger, 2022). Fetterman also leads Oz by about 5 points in recent polling, but Oz has
recently made the race much more competitive due to his new strategy of focusing on
Fetterman’s crime policies and Fetterman’s arguably subpar performance in the Senate debate
between the two (Zhou, 2022) (Manchester, 2022). Assuming, Georgia stays Democratic and
Pennsylvania flips blue, Nevada flips to Republican control, and the other battleground states
stay within their respective party controls, the Senate will stay in a 50-50 composition with
slightly different seats, giving Democrats the Senate majority as Vice President Kamala Harris
casts the deciding vote.

House of Representatives:
Another consequential result of the 2022 congressional midterms is which political party
will control the House of Representatives. Whoever wins will be in control of committee
assignments, passing legislation, potentially impeachment proceedings if Republicans take back
the House, and oversight on the bureaucracy among other things. The Republicans will likely flip
back the House in about a 225-210 majority (FiveThirtyEight, 2022). Over 70% of Americans
believe that the economy and inflation are some of the top priorities that America needs to deal
with (Doherty and Gomez, 2022). More Americans prefer the GOP over Democrats to handle
issues regarding the economy and inflation (Shepherd, 2022). Prices at the pump and everyday
necessity costs have intensified the concerns Americans have about inflation and the economy
(Pew Research Center, 2022). Because of this, it is most likely that the Republicans will take
back control of the House of Representatives fitting with the history of midterm elections in
which the party out of power takes back control (Woolley, 2022).
National Voter Turnout:
Voter turnout is usually lower in midterm elections compared to presidential elections by
about a 20% difference (FairVote, 2022). However, in recent election cycles including midterm
elections, voter turnout has consistently increased and the 2020 presidential election had the
highest voter turnout in the 21st century for America (US Census Bureau, 2022). The 2018
midterm elections also had the highest turnout for an American midterm election in over 4
decades (Misra, 2019). Even though historically, midterm elections’ voter turnout has been
relatively low compared to that of presidential elections, the 2022 midterm elections may defy
that historical precedence. Currently, around 35.5 million Americans have already voted through
absentee ballots or early voting, signaling that the overall turnout for the 2022 midterm elections
could reach record-breaking levels (Gilligan, 2022). In addition, early voting and mail in voting
has seen a significant increase in participation since the COVID-19 pandemic which gave voters
more time, options, and flexibility to vote before or during election day, which contributed to the
2020 presidential election having the highest voter turnout of the 21st century (Murray, 2022). In
addition, because inflation is at an all time high and abortion rights have become restricted after
the Dobbs v. Jackson's decision by the Supreme Court, it might motivate large flocks of voters to
the polls. With the fact that mail in and early voting has been expanded since the COVID-19
pandemic in 2020 coupled with the facts that there has been record voter turnout for early voting
in a midterm election as well as historically pressing issues motivating voters, the 2022 midterm
elections will probably have a slightly higher turnout rate than the 2018 midterms, but less than
the 2020 presidential election at about 125 million votes.

Texas Prediction:
Governor:
Texas has a very important governor’s race coming up as Beto O’Rourke and Governor
Abbott face off in the 2022 midterms. Texans believe that the economy, inflation, crime, and
border security are the top issues for them in the upcoming 2022 midterm elections (Washington,
2022). As previously mentioned, most Americans, especially Republicans, believe that the
economy is the top issue in America and they trust Republicans more to handle the economy
(Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists, Pew Research Center,
2022). In addition, voters trust the GOP more to deal with immigration and crime problems
(Hesson, Morgan, and Lange, 2022).
Other issues like abortion from the Dobbs v. Jackson's decision and gun control from the
Uvalde shooting are also important issues to Texans but they pale in comparison to border
security and the economy (Saad, 2022). The fact that Americans believe the economy and border
security are the most important issues and trust the GOP more to deal with them in conjunction
with Texas’s voter ID law making it hard for Democratic voters and minorities to vote as well as
Governor Abbott having the incumbency effect in a solidly conservative state, makes it very
likely that Governor Abbott will defeat challenger Beto O’Rourke by about a 10 point margin of
55% to 45%.

House of Representatives:
As previously mentioned, over 70% of Americans believe that the economy and inflation
are some of the top priorities that America needs to deal with (Doherty and Gomez, 2022). More
Americans prefer the GOP over Democrats to handle issues regarding the economy and inflation
(Shepherd, 2022). Prices at the pump and everyday necessity costs have intensified the concerns
Americans have about inflation and the economy (Pew Research Center, 2022). 36 of the 38 of
the House seats are projected to stay safe as they have strong political bases there, but two of
Texas’s congressional seats are considered to be dead-heats: Texas’s 15th congressional district
and 34th congressional district (FiveThirtyEight, 2022).
Texas’s 15th congressional district is a toss up between Trump conservative Monica De
La Cruz and progressive Michelle Vallejo (Choi, 2022). They are both focusing on the economy
and border security as their top issues, which is consistent with what the majority of Texas voters
believe to be the most important issues to them when they are voting (Choi, 2022) (Washington,
2022). This has been a traditionally Democratic district which could signify that the Democratic
base in the district may be motivated to go to the polls and vote for Vallejo (Choi, 2022). Not to
mention, La Cruz has been involved in numerous scandals including mismanagement of
COVID-19 relief funds and child abuse (Choi, 2022). With all this in mind, Vallejo will likely
defeat La Cruz in a 48.8% to 48.1% margin (FiveThirtyEight, 2022).
Texas’s 34th congressional district is a toss up between Representative Vincente
Gonzalez and Representative Mayra Flores (Choi, 2022). Gonzales should theoretically win the
district as it is heavily Democratic, but the elements have changed drastically as he is now trying
to represent a new district due to redistricting as well as the fact that Representative Mayra
Flores flipped the district in a special election in June where Republicans heavily turned out to
vote (Choi, 2022). With the new redistricting, the district has become more Democratic to where
Biden would have won against Trump by 15.5% (Choi, 2022). Gonzales is also well known
throughout Texas due to his policy making, experience, and Texan background (Choi, 2022).
However, Gonzales has had controversy as he had attacked Flores with racist and sexist
comments (Choi, 2022). Both candidates also have experience calling back on issues such as
Flores’ infrastructure bills and Gonzales’ border and gun safety bills (Choi, 2022). This race will
be competitive due to technically two incumbents running, but because of the Democratic
favored redistricting as well as Gonzales’ more prominent presence, he will likely win but by a
margin of 48.9% to 48.6% (FiveThirtyEight, 2022).
The Texas’ U.S. House of Representatives composition will likely be 14 Democratic
seats to 24 Republican seats.

Texas’s 15th Congressional District:

Texas’s 15th congressional district is a toss up between Trump conservative Monica De
La Cruz and progressive Michelle Vallejo (Choi, 2022). They are both focusing on the economy
and border security as their top issues, which is consistent with what the majority of Texas voters
believe to be the most important issues to them when they are voting (Choi, 2022) (Washington,
2022). This has been a traditionally Democratic district which could signify that the Democratic
base in the district may be motivated to go to the polls and vote for Vallejo (Choi, 2022). Not to
mention, La Cruz has been involved in numerous scandals including mismanagement of
COVID-19 relief funds and child abuse (Choi, 2022). With all this in mind, Vallejo will likely
defeat La Cruz in a 48.8% to 48.1% margin (FiveThirtyEight, 2022).

Harris County Judge:

The Harris County Judge election is between incumbent judge Lina Hidalgo and
challenger Alexandra Mealer (Fechter, 2022). Harris County has generally become a Democratic
stronghold over recent years (Fechter, 2022). Hidalgo is using the message of abortion after the
Dobbs v. Jackson’s decision to help stir up Democratic turnout and has made abortion a central
component of her campaign (Fechter, 2022). However, the issue of crime is making the race a
very competitive one (Fechter, 2022). Recently, since the COVID-19 pandemic, crime, especially
violent crime and homicides, have dramatically increased (Fechter, 2022). Mealer has centered
her campaign around crime and ways to help support police to help reduce crime within Harris
County (Fechter, 2022). As previously mentioned, crime is an important issue that many Texans
consider to be on the top priorities for the state and country as a whole (Washington, 2022).
Because many Texans believe crime is an issue that needs to be resolved, Mealer has gotten a lot
of support for her focus on trying to reduce crime, positioning herself to be in a close race with
Judge Hidalgo.
Even though the race is a competitive one, because Harris County has a lot of Democratic
voters, the abortion message will likely resonate more with voters in Harris County compared to
crime to a slight extent allowing Hidalgo to win reelection by a margin of 47% to 45% for
Mealer.

Nevada Prediction:
House of Representatives:
As previously mentioned, over 70% of Americans believe that the economy and inflation
are some of the top priorities that America needs to deal with (Doherty and Gomez, 2022). More
Americans prefer the GOP over Democrats to handle issues regarding the economy and inflation
(Shepherd, 2022). Prices at the pump and everyday necessity costs have intensified the concerns
Americans have about inflation and the economy (Pew Research Center, 2022).
Nevadans agree with the rest of America as they believe the economy and inflation are
the top issues in the state and voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to deal with issues
involving the economy (Golonka, 2022) (Dorn, 2022). In recent months, Nevadans have spent
more on groceries than most other states and have had some of the highest gas prices in the
nation (Drewes, 2022) (Kamisar, 2022). Higher costs are detrimental because they lead to a
decrease in discretionary spending, which helps drive Nevada’s hospitality tourism, which is
Nevada’s main economic force (Wolford, 2022). This makes Nevada’s economy one the most
vulnerable to a recession, which makes Nevadans extremely concerned (Wolford, 2022). Other
economic problems have surfaced such as lower wages, more expensive house markets, higher
interest rates, etc. (Wolford, 2022). These problems have only continued to prolong themselves,
only making people continue to think about the economy and inflation as the top issues facing
the country.
Despite the economic concerns of Americans which favor the Republicans, all
congressional seats in Nevada are likely to stay the same in the 2022 midterm elections. Nevada
has generally trended blue in recent years: 3 of 4 House seats are currently held by Democrats,
Joe Biden won Nevada in the 2020 presidential election, and Nevada has two Democratic
Senators, Catherine Cortez Masto and Jacky Rosen (Politics and Voting in Clark County,
Nevada, 2022). This trend may help Nevada’s 1st, 3rd, and 4th districts, which are held by
Democrats, as they all cover parts of Clark County, which covers Las Vegas and has been
trending liberal in the most recent election cycles (Politics and Voting in Clark County, Nevada,
2022).
Abortion has become a key issue in the 2022 midterms after the Dobbs v. Jackson
decision which may drive the Democratic base to re-elect Representatives Titus, Lee, and
Horsford (Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists, Pew Research
Center, 2022). As for Nevada’s 2nd district, it covers the more rural areas of Carson City and
Reno, which tend to vote more conservatively (Parker, Horowitz, Brown, Fry, Cohn, and
Igielnik, 2022).
However, to mention again, most Americans, especially Republicans, believe that the
economy is the top issue in America and they trust Republicans more to handle the economy
(Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists, Pew Research Center,
2022). Because most Americans believe the economy is an important issue, it may help drive
voter turnout for Republicans in Nevada, especially for the 2nd district.
While Representatives Amodei and Horsford are considered to be relatively safe for
reelection, Nevada’s 1st and 3rd Districts are considered dead-heats even though they are more
Democratic leaning districts because of the economy (FiveThirtyEight, 2022). Because
Nevadans trust the GOP more to deal with the economy and because Nevada’s 1st and 3rd
districts are swing districts, the races will be close (Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided,
Economic Gloom Persists, Pew Research Center, 2022). However, both districts have been
leaning Democratic in recent years, so the abortion factor may help Representative Titus and Lee
with their reelection bids coupled with the fact that they have an incumbency advantage. It is
likely that none of these seats will flip and all 4 Representatives of Nevada will go back to
Congress after the 2022 midterm elections as they all have the incumbency advantage and they
have strong base support in their respective districts.

Governor and Senator:

The Governor and Senator races for Nevada are much more heated compared to the
House races. The Governor and Senate races for Nevada are considered dead heats
(FiveThirtyEight, 2022). As previously mentioned, Nevadans believe the economy and inflation
are the top issues in the state and voters trust Republicans more than Democrats to deal with
issues involving the economy (Golonka, 2022) (Dorn, 2022). In recent months, Nevadans have
spent more on groceries than most other states and have had some of the highest gas prices in the
nation (Drewes, 2022) (Kamisar, 2022). Higher costs are detrimental because they lead to a
decrease in discretionary spending, which helps drive Nevada’s hospitality tourism, which is
Nevada’s main economic force (Wolford, 2022). This makes Nevada’s economy one the most
vulnerable to a recession, which makes Nevadans extremely concerned (Wolford, 2022). Other
economic problems have surfaced such as lower wages, more expensive house markets, higher
interest rates, etc. (Wolford, 2022). These problems have only continued to prolong themselves,
only making people continue to think about the economy and inflation as the top issues facing
the country.
However, another issue that is at play is abortion. As previously mentioned, abortion has
become a key issue in the 2022 midterms after the Dobbs v. Jackson's decision which may drive
the Democratic base to re-elect Governor Sisolak and Senator Cortez Masto as Nevada has
become more of a blue state over time, having 3 Democratic Representatives, 2 Democratic
Senators, and was won by Democratic presidential candidates most of the time in recent history
(Midterm Voting Intentions Are Divided, Economic Gloom Persists, Pew Research Center,
2022). (Politics and Voting in Clark County, Nevada, 2022). This Democratic leaning in Nevada
could help Sisloak and Cortez Masto as abortion could help rally the Democratic base to show up
and vote for them.
In addition to the economy, inflation, and abortion issues, the Latino factor will decide
the fate of Governor Sisolak and Senator Cortez Masto. As previously mentioned, Latinos are a
huge voting block in the Nevada population as they are over 20% of eligible voters and 28.7% of
the overall Nevada population (Cullen, 2022) (Sanchez and Snyder, 2021). Latinos were
considered to be a stronghold demographic for the Democrats which allowed Democrats to
slowly turn the state more blue, but as of recently Republicans have slowly chipped away at the
Latino voting block once associated with them as Latinos believe that Republicans would better
handle the economy, inflation, and job stability which are the most important factors Latinos are
considering when they are voting (Cullen, 2022).
With all of these factors taken into consideration, the Republicans will most likely flip the
governorship and Senate seat and Joe Lombardo will defeat Governor Sisolak and Adam Laxalt
will defeat Senator Cortez Masto by about 50% to 49.5% margin for both races.
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