An Assessment The Impacts of Climate Change On Mosul Dam Lake Using Satellite Data

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An Assessment the Impacts of Climate Change on Mosul Dam Lake Using

Satellite Data
Thesis · May 2021

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28581.17121
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Republic of Iraq
Ministry of Higher Education
and Scientific Research
MUSTANSIRIYAH UNIVERSITY
College of Science
An Assessment the Impacts of Climate Change

on Mosul Dam Lake Using Satellite Data
A Thesis Submitted to the College of Science, Mustansiriyah

University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the
Degree of Master of Science in Atmospheric Sciences
By
Mervat Ayad Abd-Alkhaleq
B.Sc. in Applied Physics Science (2003)
Supervised by
Dr. Yaseen Kadhim Al-Timimi
Professor
May 2021A.D. Shawal 1442 A.H.

‫َش ٍء‬ ‫﴿ َو َج َع ْلنَا ِم َن ا ْل َم ِاء ل َّ‬
‫ُك َْ‬
‫ح ۖ َأفَ ََل ي ل ْؤ ِمنلو َن ﴾‬
‫َ ٍي‬
‫دَق هللا ال َعظمي‬
‫َص َ‬
‫سورة الانبياء – الاية ‪30‬‬
Dedication
TO
My Mother, Light my way at every stage of my life.
My Father’s soul, who guided me to the right path.
My Sons, A piece of my soul and the joy of my
heart.
My lovely forever, who always supporting me.
TO
Everyone Who Enabled Me to Achieve this thesis
and giving Me the greatest Pride to Carry Out My
thesis.
Mervat…
Acknowledgments
First of all, praise and deep thanks are due to ALLAH Almighty for making this
work possible. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisor,
Prof. Dr. Yaseen Kadhim Al-Timimi, for suggesting this work, for his advice,
consultations, and continued encouragement. I am so thankful for his support
since the beginning.
I'm grateful to all teaching staff and the head of Atmospheric Science
Department for their support during the period of my study.
I would like to express my deep appreciation to Dr. Ammar Abd Jasim for his
help.
thanks to the Department Space and Communications -Geophysics Research
Center- Ministry of Science and Technology.
Special thanks to Dr.Haider Abdel-Zehra, Mr.Abdel- Hadi Ahmed Turkey, Dr.
Ahmed Ali Hameed, Dr.Anass Abdel-Razaq Mohamed, Mr.Alaa Ezat Hassan,
and Miss.Faten Ghanim Abed for their encouragement and giving me the chance
to compete with my fellow pupils for my Master's study.
There are no words to express my appreciation and gratitude to my
Mother for her love, support, help, and providing me with everything she can
to earn my Master's degree.
Finally, I thank my husband for his help and supportive words.
Mervat….
Abstract
Climate change leads to changes in the hydrological cycle for different

components of the climate system that include the atmosphere, hydrosphere,
cryosphere, land surface, and biosphere, are involved. Therefore, climate change
affects water resources (runoff, flooding and drought, snowmelt, water quality,
and groundwater) both directly and indirectly influences by global warming,
temperature increases, and changes in precipitation patterns.
This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on water resources as a
case study, Mosul Dam Lake by detecting the changes in Water Surface Area
(WSA) and studying the relationship between climatological variables and lake
area through employing Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information
System techniques (GIS).
This thesis deals with three steps, each step complementary to the other.
Firstly; calculating Mosul lake watershed area by use of the ArcMap GIS program
to process and analyze Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) that derived from the
Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) as nine accurate images for periods
2000-2020. Secondly; this step included Normalized Different Water Index
(NDWI) analysis to calculated and detected the changes in WSA using series of
Landsat satellite images (5TM,7ETM+, and 8OLI sensors) as forty images in
April and September for the study period, where the lake witnessed clear changes
from year to year and even from season to another, especially in April. The most
significant change in the study area is in the northwestern part of the Lake, the
values of the WSA fluctuated over the 21 year. As expected, the maximum area
of the lake was 327 km2 in April 2002, while the minimum value was 180 km2 in
September 2018. Thirdly; this step included the impacts of the climatological
variables (air temperature, snow, and precipitation) on an Area of Lake (AOL),
the spatial and temporal characteristics of climatological variables have been
identified in the study area.
The result of spatial analysis indicated that the lake was found at the highest
class of temperature, and lowest class of snow and precipitation. The temporal
analysis showed that the air temperature and precipitation have a positive trend,
while snow has a negative trend for all study years.
The results of the annual Rate of Change (RC) in air temperature tend to be
rise, the highest Rate of Change was in minimum temperature12.28%, and the
lowest Rate of Change was for a maximum temperature of 1.57%. The highest
annual Rate of Change in the snow was in snowmelt -64.74%, and the lowest Rate
of Change for snow cover was -16.003%.
The results of a Pearson correlation coefficient between climatic variables

and AOL showed that minimum temperature has more impact on a lake in April
(R = -0.61) compared with maximum and mean temperatures (-0.19 and -0.5)
respectively. While the result between snow and AOL indicated that the snowmelt
has the highest significance in statistical analysis (0.88), and the snow cover and
snow depth were (0.63 and 0.6) respectively in April. Finally, the multiple
regression indicated that climatic variables that are used in this study have a more
accurate impact on a lake in April (0.86) than in September (0.64).
List of Contents
NO. Title Page NO.
Chapter One: General Overview

1.1 Introduction. 1
1.2 The Changes in Climate System. 2
1.3 Factors Affecting Climate Elements. 4
1.4 Impacts Climate Change on lakes . 5
1.5 Description of the Problem. 7
1.6 Previous Studies. 9
1.7 Aim of Thesis. 13
1.8 Thesis Organize. 14
Chapter Two: Theoretical Background
2.1 Introduction. 15
2.2 Remote Sensing. 15
2.3 Landsat Satellite Series. 17
2.4 Geographic Information Systems. 19
2.5 Components of GIS. 19
2.6 Digital Elevation Model . 22
2.7 Hydrological Analysis. 22
2.7.1 Mosaic. 23
2.7.2 Fill Method. 24
2.7.3 Flow Direction. 25
2.7.4 Flow Accumulation. 26
2.8 Change Detection. 27
2.9 Spectral Indices. 27
2.10 Normalized Difference Water Index. 30
2.11 Image Classification Technique. 31
2.11.1 Supervised Classification. 31
2.11.2 Unsupervised Classification. 32
2.12 Spatial Interpolation Methods. 32
I
2.13 Inverse Distance Weighting. 34
2.14 Statistical Analysis. 36
2.14.1 Mann-Kendall Test and Sens' Slope. 36
2.14.2 Mann-Kendall Test and the Magnitude of the Sen's Method Trend in 36
MAKESENS.
2.14.3 Mann-Kendall Test. 37
2.14.4 Sen's Method. 39
2.15 Standard Deviation. 40
2.16 Annual Rate of Change for Climate Variables 41
2.17 Linear Regression and Correlation Coefficient 41
2.18 Multiple Linear Regression 42
Chapter three: Study Area, Datasets, and Methodology
3.2 Description of the Study Area. 43
3.3 Climate of Study Area. 45
3.4 Hydrology of the Study Area. 46
3.5 Geology of Study Area. 47
3.6 The Used Software. 48
3.7 Dataset Source and Pre-prossesing Images. 48
3.7.1 Digital Elevation Models Dataset and sources. 48
3.7.2 Projected Data from the Geographic Coordinate System to the 51
Universal Transverse Mercator.
3.7.3 Mosaic Bands. 52
3.7.4 Depression less DEM (Fill). 52
3.8 Landsat Series Dataset. 53
3.8.1 Clip Raster. 55
3.8.2 Correcting and Filling the Gaps in the Images of Landsat 7 ETM+. 55
3.8.3 Filter. 56
3.9 Climatic Data and Resource. 56
3.9.1 Missing Data. 57
3.10 Methodology. 58
II
3.10.1 Extract Watershed of Mosul Dam lake. 59
3.10.2 Detecting the Changes in Mosul Dam Lake. 60
3.10.3 Studying the Impacts of Climate Variables on Mosul Dam Lake. 61
Chapter Four: Results and Discussion
4.2 Hydrological Analysis 62
4.2.1 Flow Direction. 62
4.2.2 Flow Accumulation. 63
4.2.3 Drainage point. 64
4.3 Spatial Analysis. 65
4.3.1 Normalized Difference Water Index. 65
4.3.2 Iso Cluster Unsupervised Classification Technique. 76
4.4 Spatial Distribution of Climate Data. 86
4.4.1 Air Temperature. 86
4.4.2 Snow. 89
4.4.3 Precipitation Rate. 92
4.5 Temporal Analysis of Climate Data. 93
4.5.1 Air Temperature. 94
4.5.2 Snow. 101
4.5.3 Precipitation Rate. 107
4.6 Annual Rate of Change. 110
4.7 Statistical Analysis. 111
4.7.1 Correlation Coefficient 111
4.7.2 Multi Regression Between Area of Lake and Climate variables. 118
Chapter Five: Conclusions and Recommendations
5.1 Conclusions . 119
5.2 Recommendations. 121
References
References. 122-131
III
List of Figures
NO. Title Page NO.
Chapter One
1.1 Ilisu and Cizre Dams. 8
Chapter Two
2.1 Type sensors of remote sensing. 16
2.2 The longest and continuous earth science observation program. 17
2.3 The geographic information system. 19
2.4 Components of GIS. 20
2.5 GIS data raster-vector data model. 21
2.6 Illustration three adjacent raster datasets are mosaicked together 23
into one raster dataset.
2.7 Filling sink and remove peak in the DEM. 24
2.8 Flow direction arrows based on the direction of steepest descent. 25
2.9 Determination flow accumulation grid. 26
2.10 The reflectance of several typical land cover objects. 29
2.11 Deterministic methods 33
a) Global interpolation, b) local interpolation.
2.12 Geostatistical methods. 34
Chapter three
3.1 Mosul dam cross-section schematic diagram. 44
3.2 Location of Mosul dam lake. 45
3.3 Regional climate classification of Iraq. 45
3.4 SRTM 1 Arc Sec DEMs nine images. 50
3.5 SRTM DEMs nine images collected. 52
3.6 Mosaic and fill raster for the study area. 53
3.7 Result of gap-filling for one band: a- original image b- image after 56
gab-filling.
3.8 Flowchart showing the overall methods adopted in the study. 58
3.9 Steps of extract the watershed study area from DEM data. 59
IV
3.10 Steps to drive the WSA for the study area from a satellite image. 60
Chapter Four
4.1 Flow direction raster. 63
4.2 Flow accumulation raster. 63
4.3 Feeding watershed of Mosul dam lake raster. 64
4.4 NDWI for Landsat images in 2 April 2001. 65
4.5 NDWI images for 2000-2001. 66
4.6 NDWI images for 2002-2004. 67
4.7 NDWI images for 2005-2006. 68
4.8 NDWI images for 2007-2008. 69
4.9 NDWI images for 2009-2010. 70
4.10 NDWI images for 2011-2012. 71
4.11 NDWI images for 2013-2014. 72
4.12 NDWI images for 2015-2016. 73
4.13 NDWI images for 2017-2018. 74
4.14 NDWI images for 2019-2020. 75
4.15 Unsupervised classification technique for Landsat images in 2 76
April 2001
4.16 Binary maps for 2000 , and 2001 . 77
4.17 Binary maps for 2002,2004, and 2005. 78
4.22 Binary maps for 2018,2019 and 2020. 83
4.23 The water area in April and September. 84
4.24 a) The monthly average air temperature map, 86
b) Applying the IDW method for the map.
V
4.25 The spatial distribution of average monthly a) max, b) min, and c) 88
mean temperature, applying IDW and classification method for
map.
4.26 The spatial distribution of average monthly a) snow cover, b) 91
snow depth, and c) snowmelt, applying IDW and classification
method for map.
4.27 The spatial distribution of average monthly precipitation rate. 93
4.28 Seasonal maximum temperature. 94
4.29 Seasonal and annual maximum temperature. 95
4.30 Seasonal minimum temperature. 96
4.31 Seasonal and annual minimum temperature. 97
4.32 Seasonal mean temperature. 98
4.33 Seasonal and annual mean temperature. 99
4.34 Seasonal snow cover. 101
4.35 Seasonal and annual snow cover. 102
4.36 Seasonal snow depth. 103
4.37 Seasonal and annual snow depth. 104
4.38 Seasonal snowmelt. 105
4.39 Seasonal and annual snowmelt. 106
4.40 Seasonal precipitation rate. 108
4.41 Annual precipitation rate. 109
4.42 Scatter plot between area of lake and maximum temperature. 111
4.43 Scatter plot between area of lake and minimum temperature. 112
4.44 Scatter plot between area of lake and mean temperature. 113
4.45 Scatter plot between area of lake and snow cover in April. 113
4.46 Scatter plot between area of lake and snow cover in September. 114
4.47 Scatter plot between area of lake and snow depth. 114
4.48 Scatter plot between area of lake and snowmelt. 115
4.49 Scatter plot between area of lake and precipitation. 116
VI
List of Tables
NO. Title Page NO.
Chapter Two
2.1 The significance level of α. 38
2.2 Interpreting the range of correlation coefficients. 42
Chapter Three
3.1 Landsat Series Dataset. 54
Chapter Four
4.1 Area of Lake in April and September. 85
4.2 Study area classes percentage of max, min, and mean temperature. 89
4.3 Study area classes percentage of snow cover, snow depth, and 92
snowmelt.
4.4 Study area classes percentage of precipitation rate. 93
4.5 Mann-Kendall test and Sens’slope results (Z and Q test) for air 100
temperature.
4.6 Mann-Kendall test and Sens’slope results (Z and Q test) for snow. 107
4.7 Mann-Kendall test and Sens’slope results (Z and Q test) for 109
precipitation rate.
4.8 Annual Rate of Change for climate variables. 110
4.9 Statistical analysis in April. 117
4.10 Statistical analysis in September. 117
VII
List of Abbreviations
Abbreviation Meaning
AOL Area of Lake.
ArcGIS Architecture Geographic Information System.
AWEI Automated Water Extraction Index.
b.c.m billion cubic meter .
D8 Eight Direction.
DD Decimal Degrees.
DEMs Digital Elevation Models.
DMS Degrees, Minutes, and Seconds.
DOC Dissolved Organic Carbon.
ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute.
ETM+ Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus.
GCS Geographic Coordinate System.
GEE Google Earth Engine.
GHGs GreenHouse Gases.
GIOVANNI GES-DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information. Services
Center) Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure.
GIS Geographic Information Systems.
GMS Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite.
GS Ground Survey.
IDW Inverse Distance Weighting.
ILWIS Integrated Land and Water Information System.
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
ISODATA Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique.
LDCM Landsat Data Continuity Mission .
LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging .
m.a.s.l meter above sea level .
MAKESENS Mann-Kendall Test for Trend and Sens’ Slope Estimates.
MDL Mosul Dam Lake .
MDR Mosul Dam Reservoir.
MENA Middle East and North Africa.
VIII
MK Mann-Kendall Test.
MNDWI Modified Normalized Difference Water Index .
MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer .
MSS Multispectral Scanner System .
NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration .
NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index .
NDWI Normalized Difference Water Index .
OLI Operational Land Imager .
PCs Personal Computers .
PGS projected Coordinate System.
RC Rate of Change .
RBF Radial Basis Function.
RS Remote Sensing .
SAGA System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses.
SD Standard Deviation .
SLC Scan Line Corrector .
SPOT Satellite Pour Observation de la Terre.
SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission.
SWIR Short Wave Infrared .
TCW Tasseled Cap Wetness Index.
TIN Triangular Irregular Network .
TIRS Thermal Infrared .
TM Thematic Mapper .
UNEP United Nations Environment Programmer.
USGS United States Geological Survey .
USGS EE United States Geological Survey Earth Explorer.
UTM Universal Transverse Mercator.
WGS-48 World Geodetic System 1984.
WI Water Index.
WMO World Meteorological Organization.
WSA Water Surface Area.
IX
Chapter One General Overview
Chapter One: General Overview
1.1 Introduction
Water bodies, an integral part of the Earth's hydrological cycle, such as
rivers, ponds, lakes, wetlands, and reservoirs, have a major effect on climate
change and global warming. Typically, surface water bodies are dynamic in nature
as they decrease, increase, and change their appearance or course of the stream
with time, due to various natural and human-instigated factors [1]. These changes
usually cause serious consequences in extreme cases, it can cause floods and
droughts; Therefore, it is necessary to distinguish the presence of water surface,
extract its extent, evaluate and calculate the quantity of its volume, and monitor
its dynamics [2].
Climate change is affecting the water cycle all over the World, the effect
on arid and semi-arid regions is relatively more. The Middle East region is one of
the biggest hyper-arid, semi-arid, and arid zones in the world where the long-term
average precipitation does not exceed 166 mm per year [3,4].
For this reason, the Middle East represents an extremely important factor
in the stability of the region and an integral element in its economic development
and prosperity [5,6]. Future predictions suggest more severe shortages to be
expected both in surface and groundwater resources [7]. At the end of this century,
the mean temperatures in the middle east region are projected to increase by 3 to
5 °C, while the precipitation will decrease by about 20% [8] and Water run-off
will be reduced by 20% to 30% by 2050 [9] and water supply might be reduced
by 10% or more by 2050 [10].
One of the most imperative vital activities in Iraq for the administration of
its water resources is Mosul Dam Lake (MDL), which was selected as a case
study, is the biggest artificial reservoir in Iraq [11,12], which supports the water
interest of Mosul, Baghdad, and different urban areas, also provide water for
1
irrigation called North Al-Jazira Irrigation project [11]. The lake has changed in
the water surface due to the severe anthropogenic activities, climate change, the
monthly inflows received from the Tigris River, and the controlling of water
imports by neighboring countries, and the territorial policy [13].
1.2 The Changes in Climate System
Climate is the average weather at a given point and time of year, over a
long period (typically 30 years). We expect the weather to change a lot from day
to day, however expect the climate to remain relatively constant. If the climate
does not remain constant it calls climate change [14].
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states; definition of

Climate Change “Refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean
state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period
(decades). Climatic changes may be due to natural internal processes or external
forcing or, to persistent anthropogenic changes” [15].
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) qualifies this

definition by adding: “The change which may occur over the next century (21st)
as a result of human activates in the composition of the atmosphere or land use”
(IPCC 1990). Global and Regional climates have already begun changing. The
WMO has pointed out that since the start of the 20th century, the global average
surface temperature has risen approximately 0.7 oC but this rise has not been
continuous. Since 1976, the global average air temperature has risen sharply, at
0.18 oC per decade. The IPCC report indicates that [17]:
- There is high agreement and much evidence that, with current climate change
mitigation policies and related sustainable development practices, global
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions will continue to grow over the next few
decades.
2
- Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further

warming and induce many changes in the global climate system during the 21
century that would very likely be larger than those observed during the 20 century.
- Even if radiative forcing (e.g., GHG driven longwave radiation) were to be

stabilized, thermal expansion (i.e., expansion of seawater volume due to global
warming) would continue for many centuries, due to the time required to transport
heat into the deep ocean.
The Greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that contributes to the

province keeping the air temperature on the ground within a range appropriate for
human life. Climate changes can be caused by human activity that causes
environmental change and degradation, which is caused by several factors,
including economic growth, population growth, urbanization, strengthening of
agriculture, industrial activity, technological, rising energy use, and
transportation. Numerous other factors such as variation in solar radiation and
pollutant aerosols also contributed to climate change [18].
Mountains and high-land regions are sensitive to climate change. Also,

another feature associated with climate warming is the asymmetric nature, the
asymmetric nature during the daily cycle is an important characteristic associated
with climatic warming observed by many researchers [19].
Clouds and water vapor are the main anthropogenic contributor to the
Earth’s greenhouse effect, but a new study of the atmosphere-ocean climate
modeling proves that the planet’s temperature ultimately depends on the
atmospheric concentration of Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Scientists show that there is
a straight connection between the increasing CO2 levels in the atmosphere and the
rising amount of solar energy that warms the surface. They found a key theory
about the reason for recently worldwide warming of earth’s climate or the global
warming in other sentences, and one of the reasons that caused the increase in
3
CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is the activities induced by combusting of

fossil fuels for heating, power, and transportation which released CO2 [20].
1.3 Factors Affecting Climate Elements
The climate changes depending on the variations in the climatological

elements such as temperature, precipitations, wind, humidity, atmospheric
pressure, solar radiation, air masses, visibility, and dust storm. These variations
either was increasing or decreasing it leads to change in climate which is very
important cause it affects food production, drinking water supply, and sustainable
development in many parts of the world, rising sea level, extreme weather events,
particularly threatening lives of people in the third world countries [21]. Many
factors which cause the variations in the climate of a region:
Distance from the sea: the sea affects the climate of a place. Coastal areas
are cooler and wetter than inland areas. Clouds form when warm air from inland
areas meets cool air from the sea. In the summer, air temperatures can be very hot
and dry as moisture from the sea evaporates before it reaches the Centre of the
landmass.
Clouds: clouds have two major effects on weather and climate, Clouds
reflect sunlight, which can keep surface air temperatures cool. However, they also
trap heat close to the Earth's surface, which keeps air temperatures warmer. Which
one of these processes wins out depends on cloud type and thickness, the
magnitude of the solar radiation, and the albedo of the underlying surface [22].
Nature of the prevailing winds: the on-shore winds bring moisture from the
sea and cause rainfall in the area through which they pass. The off-shore winds
coming from the land are dry and help in evaporation. The on-shore summer
monsoon winds bring rains while off-shore winter monsoon winds are dry.
The world’s ocean: is crucial to heating the planet. While land areas and
the atmosphere absorb some sunlight, the majority of the sun’s radiation is
4
absorbed by the ocean. In Particular, in the tropical waters around the equator, the
ocean acts as a massive and heat-retaining solar panel. The ocean doesn't just store
solar radiation; it also helps to distribute heat around the globe. When water
molecules are heated, they exchange freely with the air in a process called
evaporation. Ocean water is constantly evaporating, increasing the temperature
and humidity of the surrounding air to form rain and storms that are then carried
by trade winds, often vast distances. Almost all rain that falls on land starts in the
ocean. The tropics are particularly rainy because of the heat absorption and thus
ocean evaporation is highest in this area [23].
Altitude (height above sea level): at the higher up, the lower temperature
will be due to less dense than it is at lower altitudes, as a general rule for higher
1,000 m the air temperature will decrease by 6.5 °C [24].
Latitude (angle of sun’s rays and effect on day length): latitude is the
distance of a location from the equator. The hottest temperatures on Earth are
found near the equator because the sun shines directly on it for more hours during
the year than anywhere else. As moving further away towards the poles, less sun
is received and the temperature becomes colder.
1.4 Impacts Climate Change on lakes
Impacts of climate change on lakes are important because lakes play a

critical role in the landscape, providing nesting habitat for birds, foraging habitat,
a source of water for many terrestrial animals, and they play a substantive role as
sources and sinks of Carbon (C) and Nitrogen (N2) gases, as well as Oxygen (O2).
For the human population, lakes are a major source of drinking water, irrigation
water, recreation and fisheries resources, and they can have major cultural and
economic significance. Freshwater ecosystems and their biodiversity are
presently seriously threatened by global changes [25, 26].
5
Warming, enhance drought with strong implications for water level and
salinity in lakes in arid and semi-arid climates. In the most extreme circumstances,
drought will transform permanent water bodies into temporary systems [27].
Lakes around the world are being affected by climate change, and that
includes changes in their physics, chemistry, and biology, as well as interactions
between their internal compartments and their surrounding watersheds in which
causes the thermodynamic balance across the air-water interface, amount of wind-
driven energy input to the system, and the timing of stream delivery into a lake
and reservoir, these processes can exert changes across the entire water column
depth [28, 29].
On average [30] observed that the lakes displayed an increase in water

temperature near the surface in a global lakes assessment, and most lakes
displayed an increase in the strength of thermal stratification. Surface waters
warmed 1.7 times faster than corresponding air temperatures at the lakes.
In non-regulated lakes, the water level is a good indicator of climate change

because it reflects the dynamic balance between water input (precipitation, runoff)
and water loss (evaporation), and the timing of the ice-free season. Because
individual physical lake properties influence freezing processes much more
strongly than thawing processes, the timing of ice-off makes a better direct
indicator of climate change than the timing of ice-on [31]. Nutrient concentrations
can also be affected by internal processes related to changes in thermal structure
and/or primary productivity [32].
The Potential of Hydrogen (PH) ionic strength, ionic composition, and

conductivity are very sensitive and easily measurable indicators of changes in
weathering rate, as well as water balance. Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC)
concentrations can also serve as an indicator, and they may be particularly
appropriate for detecting changes within the terrestrial environment [33]. DOC
integrates multiple responses within the lake, such as water transparency, heat
6
absorption, and lake metabolism, as well as changes observed in the catchment

related to increased run-off, permafrost melting, shifts in vegetation, changes in
wetlands, and increased CO2 concentrations [34]. Oxygen concentrations in lakes
can indicate climate shifts because oxygen levels are strongly influenced by
temperature and thermal structure [35].
In addition to changes in mean ambient temperature, major changes in

precipitation patterns are expected worldwide based on multiple climate models.
This will lead to enhanced net precipitation in, for instance, vast areas in the
northern temperate zone, particularly during winter. The increases in precipitation
and runoff can lead to an increase in DOC depending on the changes in terrestrial
vegetation cover, wetlands, ice melting, etc.[33]. In other parts of the world, in
contrast, net precipitation is expected to decrease, in the Mediterranean region
where as much as a 25-30% decrease in freshwater runoff is expected by 2040-
2061 [36].
1.5 Description of the Problem

Geographically, Iraq is one of the Middle East and North African countries
(MENA region) in the world's driest belt [37], this implies that Iraqi agriculture
relies on surface and groundwater resources to provide the irrigation water
required for agricultural stability [38]. These resources are restricted and the
greater part of them are imparted to different countries neighboring Iraq, also have
faced a lot of threats and damages that caused to decrease in the water supply of
the country. In the second half of the last century, water resources in Iraq such as
MDL suffered from a lot of damage and threats that drove to an incline in water
supplies [39]. The Mosul lake has changed in the water surface due to the severe
human activities, climate change, and the dams and irrigation projects that have
been constructed at the headwaters in neighboring countries such as Turkey, Iran,
and Syria, where the greater part of the water flowing into the lake comes from
Turkey.
7
Six large dams in Turkey had been constructed on the River Tigris upstream
from Mosul Dam during the last century [40]. The Ilisu Dam is one of the most
projects located on the Tigris River in Turkey Figure (1.1), its watershed is the
same as that of the Mosul Dam in Iraq, filling the Ilisu reservoir alone will absorb
one half of a yearly streamflow Tigris River [41]. Published research has
concluded that the Ilisu Dam project would significantly reduce the inflow to the
reservoir of the Mosul Dam [42, 43]. A reduction as high as 78% of the inflow of
the Mosul Dam may occur if the operation of the Ilisu and the Cizre Dams is
conducted with no consideration of downstream hydrological and environmental
impacts. Furthermore, the annual reduction of the water inflow for the Tigris
River before entering Iraqi territory is 0.1335 km3 year -1 [44].
Reservoir sedimentation and consequent loss of storage capacity affect

directly the future performance of the reservoir. Consequently, it is of prime
importance to monitor the rate of sedimentation and the changes in the capacity
of the reservoir with time. The annual reduction rate of the storage capacity of the
Mosul reservoir is 45.72 × 103 km3 year -1. Furthermore, the annual loss in WSA
of the reservoir at the dead storage level zone is 1.34 km2 year -1[45], while the
live storage level did not change because the water levels in the reservoir did not
exceed it during this operation period [46].
Figure (1.1): Ilisu and Cizre Dams [41].
8
1.6 Previous Studies
Many kinds of research have been done to study Mosul Dam and its reservoir
in terms of water quality, risk assessment, sedimentation, and other characters,
also focused in terms of evaluating the surface area and detect the change of lakes
using remote sensing, GIS techniques, and Landsat images, these studies are:
Kadioğlu (1997) in this study eighteen stations are considered for the study of
climatic records over Turkey in search of possible trends. Mean, seasonal, and
annual maximum and minimum temperatures are analyzed using the Mann–
Kendall rank statistic to demonstrate any existence of possible trends. The
analyses indicate that the mean annual temperature records in Turkey have a
warming trend over the 1939 to 1989 period, but a cooling trend from 1955 to
1989. These trends in mean annual temperatures, however, are not statistically
significant. Comparatively greater warming effects have occurred in spring and
winter minimum rather than the maximum temperature records. A regional
increase in the mean minimum temperature around 1955 is attributed to the urban
heat island effect [47].
El-Asmar et al (2013) in this paper a set of six satellite images acquired

between 1973 and 2011 was employed to map the change of the surface area of
the Burullus Lagoon in the Nile Delta using the water indices approach by
applying the non-traditional Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and the
Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) to quantify the change
in the water body area. Results showed that the lagoon lost 42.8% of its open
water area due to severe anthropogenic activities, such as the reclaiming of its
southern margins for agricultural purposes and the filling caused by the discharge
of agricultural wastes [48].
Rokni et al (2014) Lake Urmia is the largest inland body of saltwater in the
Middle East. Nevertheless, this study modeled the spatiotemporal changes of
9
Lake Urmia in the period 2000–2013 using the multi-temporal Landsat 5TM,
7ETM+, and 8OLI images. In doing so, the applicability of different satellite-
derived indexes including Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI),
Modified NDWI (MNDWI), Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI), and
other indices were investigated for the extraction of surface water from Landsat
data. Overall, the NDWI was found superior to other indexes and hence it was
used to model the spatiotemporal changes of the lake. The results indicate an
intense decreasing trend in Lake Urmia's surface area in the period 2000–2013,
especially between 2010 and 2013 when the lake lost about one-third of its surface
area compared to the year 2000. The results illustrate the effectiveness of the
NDWI approach for surface water change detection, especially in detecting the
changes between two and three different times, simultaneously [49].
Yaseen et al (2017) this paper found the Surface analysis and Hydrological
analysis to obtain much important information about the Therthar Lake and
surrounding areas using four Digital elevation models (DEMs) for the region
integrate with the GIS program. The hydrological analysis is carried out through
the application of its tools which of from fill sink tool; is found get DEM of study
area without any sinks and pits and make the flow network of water continuities,
from flow direction tool; is found all directions of water flow, from flow
accumulation tool; is found the watercourse of the study area, and from stream
order tool is found the order of the waterways, finally, projection waterways of
the study area. Surface analysis is carried out through the application of its tools
which from elevation tool; is found the heights and deepest point of the study area,
from contour line tool; is found the areas have the same elevation and represented
by a single contour line, from slope tool; is found the degree of earth's slope
relative to sea level, from aspect tool; is found the facing slope, and from Hill
shadow; is found the strength shadow regions of the study area [50].
10
Khattab et al (2017) this work demonstrates Mosul Dam Lake in three main
stages; coastline extraction, dataset interpolation, and a Triangular Irregular
Network (TIN) model. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was
used for automatic delineation of the lake coastline from satellite images. The
ordinary kriging interpolation with a stable model was used to interpolate the
water depths dataset. Finally, a TIN model was used to visualize the resulting
interpolation model. Calculated values of the area and volume of a TIN model
during 2011 were compared with values of the supposed initial operation of the
reservoir. The difference in water volume storage between these stages at 321 m
water level was about 0.81 × 106 Km3, where the lake lost around 10% of the
storage value. Also, the results of the depths lake model show that the change in
water storage between March and July 2011 was about 3.08 × 106 Km3 [12].
Sarp et al (2017) in this study spatiotemporal changes in Lake Burdur in

Turkey from 1987 to 2011 were evaluated using multi-temporal Landsat TM and
ETM+ images. Classification and spectral water indexing, including the
Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference
Water Index (MNDWI), and Automated Water Extraction Index (AWEI), were
used for extraction of surface water from image data. Spatiotemporal changes of
the lake based on the applied method reveal an intense decreasing trend in surface
area between 1987 and 2011, especially from 1987 to 2000, when the lake lost
approximately one-fifth of its surface area compared to that in 1987 [51].
Yaseen et al (2018) Darbandikhan and Dokan lakes in the north of Iraq have
been monitored and studied throughout the past eighteen years (1999-2016) in
terms of area and Average Monthly Rainfall (AMR) of the feeding basin, the
effect of historical climate change. Landsat images satellite (5, 7, and 8) types
were used, ArcGIS 10.2 program was used as well to create a map of the water
drainage networks. The results showed that the average variation in AMR of
feeding basins of the two lakes was about 1.12. The overall average area of
11
Darbandikhan and Dokan lakes was about 71.52 km2 and 168.86 km2 respectively,
overall average AMR of lakes was 1.02 km3 and 0.92 km3 consecutively. The
correlation coefficient between area and AMR of feeding basin for Lakes was
75% and 90% respectively, and Coefficient of Variance (COV) has been found as
well to be the lowest for Dokan Lake area, which was about 23% in comparison
with Darbandikhan which was about 39% [52].
Xia et al (2019) this paper present an understanding of the changes in water

surface areas in the Huai River basin, the major river basins in China. This study
used the Landsat TM, ETM+, and OLI images from 1989 to 2017 and processed
the data on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The vegetation index and
water index were used to quantify the spatiotemporal variability of the surface
water area changes over the years. The major results include: (1) The maximum
area, the average area, and the seasonal variation of water surface in the Huai
River basin showed a downward trend in the past 29 years, and the year-long
water surface areas showed a slight upward trend; (2) the water surface area was
positively correlated with precipitation, but was negatively correlated with the air
temperature and evapotranspiration; (3) the changes of the total area of water
bodies were mainly determined by the 216 larger water bodies (>10 km2) [53].
Al-Madhhachi et al (2020) this paper presents an assessment of the

hydrological impact of the Ilisu Dam in turkey on the Mosul Dam. The Ilisu Dam
and Mosul Dam watershed areas were calculated using ArcMap GIS. The
assessment is based on the worst-case scenario. The analyses that are employed
include geographic information system (GIS) techniques, regression models, and
statistical analyses. Results reveal that the Ilisu will have a drastic impact on the
inflow regime of the Mosul Dam. A reduction as high as 78% of the inflow of the
Mosul Dam may occur if the operation of the Ilisu and the Cizre Dams is
conducted with no consideration of downstream hydrological and environmental
impacts [41].
12
Mahmod et al (2020) studied and evaluated water surface area in Mosul Dam
lake during the prior 35 years to detect the effects of historical climate changes on
the surface area. The results indicated that the water layer suffered a pattern of
changes concerning the water of the surface area when the average surface area
and perimeter of the study area were about 242 km2 and 432 km consecutively
[54].
1.7 Aim of Thesis
This work is providing accurate scientific methods in the analysis of spatial

data and linked metadata which helped in the study of surface properties and
hydrological study area through geographic database based on advanced data
sources and conducting surface analyzes and advanced hydrological down to a
quick, accurate, and a variety of results. There are three main objectives of this
study:
 Extract and compute Mosul Dam lake watershed using hydrological analysis
tools through the process and analyze Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) for
periods 2000-2020.
 Calculate the variations of water area extent for a mentioned lake where the
size of the lake is changed according to the seasons, is important for water
balance study and to manage risks around the lake, through satellite images
using remote sensing techniques.
 Identify, analyze and evaluate the changes in the lake and assessment the effect
of climatological variables on the lake feeding basin, by applying spatial
interpolation methods where maps are prepared to distribute some
climatological variables data (air temperature, precipitation, and snowmelt),
and temporal analysis to study the relationship between the climatological
variables and the water area of Lake.
13
1.8 Thesis Organize
In addition to this chapter, the thesis includes four other chapters. Chapter
two reviews the basic concepts of remote sensing its focus on physical process and
the integration of remote sensing and geographic information systems, the many
satellites that are used in this study, also the theoretical background of the study
including hydrological analysis techniques, spectral indices, spatial interpolation
technique, temporal distribution, and statistical analysis. Chapter three presented
and discussed the study area, data source, data collection, the satellite images were
used in this study, and the description of the methodology of this thesis. Chapter
four presented the techniques that process the data, presented results, and discuss
the results. Chapter five shows conclusions and suggestions.
14
Chapter Two Theoretical Background
Chapter Two: Theoretical Background
2.1 Introduction
This chapter produces the basic concepts of remote sensing and focuses on
the physical process, the integration of remote sensing and geographic
information systems, the most satellites that are used in this study, also theoretical
background of study including hydrological analysis techniques, spectral indices,
spatial interpolation technique, temporal analysis technique, and statistical basic.
2.2 Remote Sensing
Remote Sensing (RS), refers to the science and the art of obtaining and
interpreting information about an object, area, or phenomenon through the
analysis of data acquired by a sensor (such as cameras, laser, radios, radar
systems, and sonar) that are not in physical contact with the object, area or
phenomenon under investigation [55]. This is done by sensing and recording
reflected or emitted energy (electromagnetic radiation) and processing, analyzing,
and applying that information [56].
The weather and climate satellite is a type of satellite that is primarily used
to monitor the weather and climate of the earth satellites can be polar orbiting,
covering the entire earth asynchronously, or geostationary, hovering over the
same spot on the equator. Platforms with the highest altitude are geosynchronous
satellites such as the Geosynchronous Meteorological Satellite (GMS), which has
an altitude of 36,000 km at the Equator. Most of the Earth Observation Satellites,
such as Landsat, Satellite Pour Observation de la Terre (SPOT), Moderate
Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), etc. are at about 900 km altitude with
a sun-synchronous orbit [55, 57].
RS provides a capture of the earth's surface in the different wavelength

areas of the electromagnetic spectrum. One of the important characteristics of a
15
remotely sensed image is the wavelength zone represented by the climate

management system. Some images represent reflected solar radiation in the
visible and infrared regions near electromagnetic radiation, and the remaining part
is energy.
The energy measured in the microwave region is the reflected radiation

meter of the targets, where the energy moves from the sensor itself this type of
RS is called active, where the power source is provided by the RS platform. The
second type of sensor that depends on the external energy source, such as the sun,
is called the passive RS system[58], see Figure (2.1).
Figure (2.1): Type sensors of remote sensing [59].
The output of the RS system is usually an image representing the scene

being observed. An image from an electronic sensor array (or a digitally scanned
photograph) consists of a two-dimensional rectangular grid of numerical values
that represent differing brightness levels each value represents the average
brightness for a portion of the surface, represented by the square unit areas in the
image, in computer terms the grid is commonly known as a raster, and the square
units are cells or pixels [60].
16
2.3 Landsat Satellite Series
The characteristics of the satellite image include the accuracy of spatial

resolution, spectral characteristics and the date of their capture play a role in the
interpretation process. In the present study, satellite images for Landsat 5
Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+),
and Landsat 8 Operational land Imager (OLI) were used , see Figure (2.2). The
approximate scene size is 170 km north-south by 183 km east-west.
Figure (2.2): The longest and continuous earth science observation program [61].
On March 1, 1984, NASA launched Landsat 5, which was designed and

built payload the Multispectral Scanner System (MSS) and the Thematic Mapper
(TM) instruments. The TM instrument was carried onboard satellite from July
1982 to May 2012 with a 16-day repeat cycle, very few images were acquired
from November 2011 to May 2012. The satellite began decommissioning
activities in January 2013 and then was moved into a lower orbit and they sent the
last command to power off the transmitter on June 5, 2013. Landsat 5TM images
consist of seven spectral bands with a spatial resolution of 30 meters for all bands,
except band 6 with a spatial resolution of 120 m, in the region of Visible, Near-
Infrared (NIR), Thermal and Short Wave Infrared (SWIR) [62].
17
Landsat 7 was successfully launched on April 15, 1999. The Landsat ETM+
sensor carried onboard satellite has acquired images of the Earth nearly
continuously since July 1999, with a 16-day repeat cycle. However, Landsat 7
mission worked efficiently until May 2003 when the equipment part Scan Line
Corrector (SLC) failure, so all scenes collected have data gaps but the data
acquired after this date are categorized as SLC-off [63]. This sensor includes
features that make it a more versatile and efficient instrument these features are:
 A panchromatic band with 15m spatial resolution.

 Enhance spatial resolution for thermal IR channel from 120 m to 60m.
 An on-board data recorder.
Landsat 7ETM+ images consist of eight spectral bands with a spatial

resolution of 30 meters for bands 1 to 5 and 7, while the spatial resolution for band
6 and band 8 is 60 m and 15 m respectively [64].
Landsat 8 launched on February 11, 2013, its payload consists of two

instrument sensors. The first one Operational Land Imager (OLI) collects data for
visible, near-infrared, and short wave infrared spectral bands, as well as a
panchromatic band, also provides two new spectral bands, one especially for
detecting cirrus clouds and the other for coastal zone observations. The second
type is Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) collects data for two more narrow spectral
bands in the thermal region. Landsat 8 has been regularly acquiring 725 scenes
per day while Landsat 7 is acquiring 438 scenes per day which increases the
probability of capturing cloud-free scenes for the global landmass. Its circles the
globe every 99 minutes, collecting and recording data in 11 different wavelength
regions After 16 days [65]. Landsat 8 OLI images consist of nine spectral bands
with a spatial resolution of 30 meters for bands 1 to 7 and 9 in the region (Visible,
NIR, SWIR), the new spectral bands a deep (ultra) blue visible channel band 1 is
useful for specifically designed for water resources, coastal zone investigation and
aerosol studies, and new IR channel band 9 is useful for cirrus cloud detection.
18
The resolution for band 8 (panchromatic) is 15 meters. Thermal bands 10

and 11 are useful in providing more accurate surface air temperatures and are
collected at 100 meters [66].
2.4 Geographic Information Systems

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is defined as a computerized
system that facilitates the phases of data capture and preparation, storage and
maintenance, manipulation and analysis, finally display and presentation data
especially in cases dealing with georeferenced data associated with the position
of objects on the ground [67]. GIS Provides the possibility of merging extensive
information with a geographical location. Besides a digital map, GIS provides
people with a vision of locations, events, categories, and climate changes display
layer upon layer of information like migration, storms, climate change, water
wells, urban, vegetation; as in Figure (2.3).
Figure (2.3): The geographic information system [68].
2.5 Components of GIS
A GIS constitutes five key components as shown in Figure (2.4). These five
components need to be in balance to function in any information system
satisfactorily.
19
Figure (2.4): Components of GIS [69].
The GIS hardware consists of the computer hardware system on which the GIS
software runs. The GIS runs on the whole spectrum of computer systems ranging
from portable Personal Computers (PCs) to multi-user supercomputers. Computer
hardware is used to obtain inputs, processing, output, and storage data [70].
The GIS software provides the functions and tools that are necessary to store,
analyze, and display geographic information. Some common GIS software is Arc
GIS, Arc View, Arc SDE, Arc IMS, MapInfo, Geomatics, TNT maps, and
Autodesk Map. Some of this GIS software can work on a network server-based
environment, and some (with extended features) have both capabilities [71].
The GIS data are named geospatial data. The source of spatial data is digitized
maps, aerial photographs, satellite images, statistical tables, and other related
documents. Geographic data and related tabular (attribute) data can be collected
by surveying or purchasing from a commercial data provider. The digital map
forms are the basic data input for GIS. The GIS stores information about the world
as layers of spatial features (customers, buildings, streets), there are three main
types of GIS data [72, 73]:
20
 Vector: In the vector data model, features on the earth are represented as
points, lines, or polygons.
 Raster: In the raster data model, a geographic feature like the land cover is
represented as a single square cell as shown in Figure (2.5).
 Attribute: Attribute values in a GIS are stored as relational database tables.
Each feature (point, line, polygon, or raster) within each GIS layer will be
represented [74].
Figure (2.5): GIS data raster-vector data model [72].

A methods computer system for GIS consists of hardware, software, and
procedures designed to support the data capture, storage, processing, analysis
modeling, and display of geospatial data. A successful GIS operates according to
a well-designed plan and business rules, which are the models and operating
practices unique to each organization.
Most definition of GIS focuses on the hardware, software, data, and analysis
components. However, no GIS exists in isolation of the user. There must always
be people to plan, implement, and operate the system as well as to make decisions
based on the output. GIS projects range from small research applications to
international corporate distributed systems, where different type of users interacts
with the GIS in many different levels and ways.
21
2.6 Digital Elevation Model
Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a digital representation of ground surface

topography or terrain. It is also widely known as a digital terrain model (DTM)
which can be represented as a raster (a grid of squares) or as a TIN [80].
DEM is generically described as a spatially geo-referenced data set that is

a popular way of encoding the topography for environmental modeling purposes.
They are also directly compatible with remotely sensed data sources and can
represent complex terrain units given the DEM has an adequate resolution. DEM
production has been one of the most automated processes (increasing the speed of
collecting the data and reducing the cost) of photogrammetry [75]. It is commonly
built using RS techniques, but it may also be built from land surveying, likewise
used often in GIS and the most common basis for digitally-produced relief maps.
It is used as a means of 3-D terrain modeling serves as a basic source of
information for deriving geospatial uniqueness.
2.7 Hydrological Analysis
Hydrological analyses are important resources for determining how the

geography of any area interacts with water, and thus, have important applicability
to safety, engineering, and ecology perspectives. Hydrological analyses can aid
researchers and emergency personnel in identifying the source and pathway of
groundwater, delineating watersheds, and identifying communities prone to
flooding conditions. A variety of programs can be used to perform hydrological
analyses including Architecture Geographic Information System (ArcGIS),
Integrated Land and Water Information System (ILWIS), and System for
Automated Geoscientific Analyses Geographic Information System (SAGA
GIS).The hydrologic analysis including Fill Pits, calculates Flow Direction,
determines Flow Accumulation, and the number of Outlet points of a watershed,
these functions used to define streams and the catchments that drain to them.
22
2.7.1 Mosaic
A collection of raster datasets (images) is stored as a catalog and viewed as
a mosaicked image that is dynamic. The properties of the original imagery are
maintained, and overlapping imagery can be ordered as required. An image
composed of multiple images fused, see Figure (2.6). A mosaic can be a static
product, such as a map-cache created from a single raster dataset, or a dynamic
image created using a mosaic dataset. The mosaic dataset model is designed for
handling multiple image scenes it supports data from many sensor platforms. The
mosaic dataset can be used to catalog a large image collection and virtually mosaic
them into a seamless image mosaic. Furthermore, mosaicking and cataloging
capabilities of the mosaic dataset can be accessed by web users using ArcGIS
Server, and ArcGIS product that publishes GIS resources as web services.
Mosaic datasets provide an automatic updating mechanism. New images

in the data folder can be automatically added to the mosaic dataset using the same
raster type used in the mosaic dataset through a synchronize operation. Existing
images in the mosaic dataset can also be updated if the sources or image properties
are changed [76].
Figure (2.6): Illustration three adjacent raster datasets are mosaicked together into one
raster dataset (ESRI 2016).
23
2.7.2 Fill Method
DEMs have flaws and restrictions that must be recognized before they can
be used in hydrological modeling. The most significant of these issues is that they
contain numerous data gaps, which are especially prevalent in hilly terrain.
Therefore, the DEMs need to improve for hydrologic modeling by the filling of
these depressions, pits, and peaks with values calculated using a surface fitting
technique and removing abnormal data values which have lower or higher values
than those of neighboring cells, as illustrated in Figure (2.7). Typically, this is
commonly used before any hydrological analysis because the presence of
depressions in the DEM can significantly affect the overland flow estimation [78].
To make a drop-less DEM, the fill function employs a variety of ArcGIS

Spatial Analyst methods, including various hydrological analytical tools. An input
surface, a fill limit, and an output raster are all required for this function. A sink
is filled to its pour point, which is the lowest elevation along its watershed
boundary. When a sink is filled, the borders of the filled area may cause other
sinks to form, which must then be filled. This can take minutes to hours for a big
DEM or one with several sinks [79].
Before filling a sink After filling a sink
Before removing peak After removing peak

Figure (2.7): Filling sink and remove peak in the DEM [80].
24
2.7.3 Flow Direction
This tool takes a surface as input and a raster as output showing the
direction of flow out of each cell. If the output drop raster option is chosen, an
output raster is created showing a ratio of the maximum change in elevation from
each cell along the direction of flow to the path length between centers of cells
and is expressed in percentages. If the Force all edge cells to flow outward option
is chosen, all cells at the edge of the surface raster will flow outward from the
surface raster [81].
The function computes the flow direction for a given grid. The values in
the cells of the flow direction grid indicate the direction of the steepest descent or
maximum drop from that cell trends in the flow of water over the surface of the
earth this is calculated as follows [82]:
𝑐ℎ𝑎𝑛𝑔𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑣𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒

maximum drop = x 100 ……………………..…..(2.1)
𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟
When a direction of steepest descent is found, the output cell is coded with
the value representing that direction. There are eight valid output directions
relating to the eight adjacent cells into which flow could travel. This approach is
commonly referred to as an Eight-Direction (D8) flow model and follows an
approach presented by [83], see Figure (2.8).
East = 1
Southeast = 2
South = 4
Southwest = 8
West = 16
Northwest = 32
North =64
Northeast = 128
Figure(2.8): Flow direction arrows based on the direction of steepest descent [84].
25
2.7.4 Flow Accumulation
This function uses the flow direction grid to compute the accumulated
number of cells draining into a certain DEM cell. The Flow Accumulation raster
allows identifying the contributing area at each grid cell in the domain, by
determines the area of a watershed that contributes runoff to any given cell, which
cells, or area, is upstream and /or upslope of a given cell. Next, the drainage
(outlet) point will be used to define a watershed as all points upstream of the outlet
[85].
The estimation of the Flow Accumulation is computed by tracing the

waterway upstream from an outlet (or sink). When the cell with the minimum
elevation in the DEM is found, all cells that drain to this cell will contribute to the
flow for an individual cell [86]:
𝐅𝐨𝐮𝐭=𝐅𝐢𝐧+𝐅𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐚𝐥………………………………………………………………………………..… (2.2)
where Fout denotes the low output from the cell, Fin denotes the flow
received by cell, and Flocal denotes the flow produced in the cell which is set to 1.
The Fout is distributed to the cell(s) which receive the flow from the center cell
according to its drainage distribution, see Figure (2.9).
Figure (2.9): Determination flow accumulation grid [87].
26
2.8 Change Detection
Change Detection is an important application of the RS technique. It is

ascertaining the changes of specific features within a certain time interval. It
provides the spatial distribution of features and qualitative and quantitative
information of feature changes. The quantitative analysis and identifying the
characteristics and processes of surface changes carry through the different
periods of RS data before and after the changes [88].
2.9 Spectral Indices
An easy and effective way to extract water surface from optical images is
based on lower reflectance of water, compared to that of other land cover types,
in IR channels, see Figure (2.10). Water Indices, which are calculated from two
or more bands, to identify the differences between water and non -water areas.
Many indices have been developed to extract water surface areas or flood
inundation extent for example:
Crist (1985) proposed the Tasseled Cap Wetness (TCW) index derived
from six bands of surface reflectance data and set a threshold of 0 to separate
water and non-water objects[89].
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) which is a vegetation

index that is worked at separating green vegetation from all types of land cover
such as soil, urban, water, etc. Domenikiotis (2003) has been used NDVI to detect
water, flood and utilized for hazard assessment[90].
Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) more useful indices for

highlight water bodies [91]. It was widely used in the first 10 years of the 21st
century and can be regarded as the first generation of water index [92, 93]. NDWI
is used to diagnose, identify and isolate water bodies from other types of land
coverings, especially those with near-water reflectivity, and to eliminate
27
interference between them as well as for water body mapping and drought
monitoring and it is sensitive to change in water content [51].
Xu (2006) found later that the SWIR band can reflect some subtle
characteristics of water, and so replaced the NIR band in NDWI with the SWIR
band and proposed the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI)
[94]. It is now widely accepted that MNDWI is more stable and reliable than
NDWI because the SWIR band is less sensitive to concentrations of sediments
and other optical active constituents within the water than the NIR band.
Therefore, MNDWI has been widely used in many recent studies such as by [95].
One limitation of MNDWI is that it cannot discriminate between water and snow,
because snow has a generally higher reflectance than the water in all the visible
and infrared channels. Snow can be easily distinguished from water using a single
visible or NIR band, which suggests that a combination usage of MNDWI and a
visible or NIR band should be able to extract water surface properly in snow cover
areas. Thresholding is one of the most critical issues in using water indices to
extract water bodies base on the reflectance characteristics of water, NDWI and
MNDWI values for water are usually greater than 0. Therefore, a threshold of 0
is often applied to extract water from index images [94].
Feyisa (2014) introduced a new index called Automated Water Extraction

Index (AWEI), capable of detecting water bodies from time series Landsat
imagery using a single threshold [96]. It includes two indices, AWEInsh, which
works well when there are no shadows, and AWEIsh, which further distinguishes
water pixels from shadow pixels. AWEI has been adopted in many recent studies
for extracting water bodies from Landsat images[97, 98].
A new Water Index (WI) was created using the linear discriminant analysis
from surface reflectance on Visible, NIR, and SWIR channels, and proved its
roughly equal strength with some other prevailing water indices [99].
28
NDWI is more superior than other indices, have a better result for deeper
and worse for shallower parts of the water surface. Therefore, the use NDWI
approach increases the reflectance properties of water by reducing the low
reflectance of NIR and enhancing the reflectance in green wavelength [91,94].
Landsat imagery is the most popular data source for calculating water
indices, due to its suitable spectral bands, as well as its medium spatial resolution.
[99] conducted a comprehensive comparison on the performance of several
popular WI methods for classifying water in 30 m resolution Landsat TM, ETM+,
and OLI imagery. They found that the accuracy of each index was highly
dependent on the composition of the validation pixels, with no index performing
best across all water and non-water pixel types.
Figure (2.10): The reflectance of several typical land cover objects [100].
29
2.10 Normalized Difference Water Index
The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) is one of the successful

indexes used to extract WSA and waterline from satellite images [101]. It was
concluded using the spectral reflectivity of the water is high in the range of the
green wavelength and low in the range of near-infrared, the values of NDWI are
in a range of −1 to +1, due to the high reflectivity of plant and soil (in the range
of near-infrared) makes the values of NDWI positive that indicates of the presence
water cover like (water bodies, rivers, and canals) therefore appear to be bright,
While the green and built areas like (Vegetation, bare land and other types of
covers) are an indicator of the absence of water covers are dark and have negative
values or zero [91].
The main goal of the arithmetic operation to find the spectral index is to
produce a single number from two or more spectral bands. These methods are
scientifically used to classify the data into two categories consisted of water and
non-water (land) objects the difference between them is based on combinations
of two or more spectral bands by utilizing various algebraic operations as shown
below [102] :
NDWI = (R Green−R NIR)/ (R Green+ R NIR)
NDWI 5TM,7ETM+ = (B2-B4)/(B2+B4) ……………………………………... (2.3)
NDWI 8OLI = (B3-B5)/(B3+B5) ……………………...……………...…. (2.4)
Where R NIR and R green are the reflectance of the near-infrared (band 4) and
the green (band2) respectively in Landsat 5TM and 7ETM+ sensors, while, R NIR
and Rgreen are the reflectance of the near-infrared (band 5) and the green (band3)
consecutively in Landsat 8 OLI sensor [103].
30
2.11 Image Classification Technique
Classification is defined as the process of categorizing every pixel in an

image or original remotely sensed satellite data to produce a given collection of
land cover/land use, based on those different feature kinds on the land, the
classification operation counts on the nature of the study area (urban or vegetation
and water). Therefore, each category has different spectral reflectance and
remittance characteristics that distinguish it from other species, their
distinguishing is carried out through the method of classification.
Various classification approaches have been developed and widely used to

produce land cover maps [104]. They range in logic, from supervised to
unsupervised; parametric to nonparametric to non-metric, or hard and soft
classification, or per-pixel, and sub-pixel [105,106]. However, there are two broad
types of classification procedures and each finds application in the processing of
RS images: one is referred to as supervised classification and the other one is
unsupervised classification. These can be used as alternative approaches, but are
often combined into hybrid methodologies using more than one method [107].
2.11.1 Supervised Classification
Supervised classification is the type of machine learning in which training

input is given, and then according to training inputs classification is applied.
Supervised classification is the most used classification algorithm in RS. After
applying this technique, the output is classified image according to each class
called training. In this technique, training places are chosen by the user and this
method applies a simple pattern, expected on the probability of a pixel fitting into
a particular category or class. Its fundamental method presumes that for all the
categories the probabilities are the same, which is the most utilized classification
in RS [108, 110].
31
2.11.2 Unsupervised Classification

Unsupervised image classification is a method in which the image
interpreting software separates a large number of unknown pixels in an image
based on their reflectance values into classes or clusters with no direction from
the analyst [111]. There are two most frequent clustering methods used for
unsupervised classification: K-means and Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis
Technique (ISODATA). These two methods rely purely on spectrally pixel-based
statistics and incorporate no prior knowledge of the characteristics of the themes
being studied. On the other hand, supervised classification is a method in which
the analyst defines small [112]. Better results will be obtained if all input bands
have the same data ranges. If the bands have vastly different data ranges, the data
ranges can be transformed to the same range using map algebra to perform the
equation [113]:
(𝑥−𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑚𝑖𝑛 )(𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑚𝑎𝑥 −𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑚𝑖𝑛 )

𝑍= + 𝑛𝑒𝑤𝑚𝑖𝑛 …………………….…………. (2.5)
(𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑚𝑎𝑥 −𝑜𝑙𝑑min
Where: Z is the output raster with new data ranges, x is the input raster,
oldmin is the minimum value of the input raster, oldmax is the maximum value of
the input raster, newmin is the desired minimum value for the output raster, newmax
is the desired maximum value for the output raster.
2.12 Spatial Interpolation Methods
Interpolation techniques predict values for cells in a raster from a limited

number of sample data points. It can be used to predict unknown values for any
geographic point data : elevation, rainfall, chemical concentrations, noise levels,
and so on. Unknown values are predicted with a mathematical formula that uses
the values of nearby known points. The interpolation methods can generally also
be depicted using the prediction approach, particularly deterministic and
geostatistical approaches.
32
A value is assigned to regions in the deterministic approach based on

surrounding observed values and mathematical procedures that determine the
smoothness of the resultant surface. Deterministic interpolation techniques can be
divided into two groups: global and local. Global techniques calculate predictions
using the entire data set, see Figure (2.11 a). Local techniques calculate
predictions from the measured points within neighborhoods, which are smaller
spatial areas within the larger study area, see Figure (2.11 b). Geostatistical
analyst provides the global polynomial as a global interpolator and the IDW, local
polynomial and Radial Basis Function (RBF) as local interpolators.
a) b)
Figure (2.11): Deterministic methods

a) Global interpolation, b) local interpolation [114].
The geostatistical approaches are based on autocorrelation-aware statistical

models. As a result, geostatistical approaches can not only create a prediction
surface but also offer a measure of the predictability or accuracy of the
predictions. The Kriging approach is included in this method, Figure (2.12). The
remaining interpolation techniques, Topo to Raster and Topo to Raster by File,
are used to create continuous surfaces from contour lines, and both approaches
have qualities that make them suitable for hydrologic study [115].
33
Figure (2.12): Geostatistical methods [114].
2.13 Inverse Distance Weighting
The Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) interpolator assumes that each

input point has a local influence that diminishes with distance. It weights the
points closer to the processing cell greater than those further away. A specified
number of points or all points within a specified radius can be used to determine
the output value of each location. The use of this method assumes the variable
being mapped decreases in influence with distance from its sampled location
[116].
IDW relies primarily on two assumptions: the first, is that the anonymous
value of a point is affected by the proximity control points more than the remote
points. The second, degree of impact (weight) of the points corresponds to each
other directly with the inverse distance between the points raised to the force
[117].
To predict a value for any unmeasured location, IDW will use the measured
values surrounding the prediction location. Those measured values closest to the
prediction location will have more influence on the predicted value than those
farther away. IDW weighting function defined by [118]:
34
1
w(d)= ………………………………………………………………….. (2.6)
𝑑𝑝
where w(d) is the weighting factor applied to a known value, d is the

distance from the known value to the unknown value, and p is a positive real
number, called the power parameter. That is the weights are inversely proportional
to the power 'p' of the distances between the point of interpolation and the data
locations (weight decreases as distance increases from the interpolated points).
Greater values of p assign greater influence to values closest to the interpolated
point. A general form of interpolating a value using IDW is [119]:
𝑧𝑖
∑𝑁
𝑖=1 𝑝
𝑑
λ= 𝑁 1
𝑖
………………………………………...………………………… (2.7)
∑𝑖=1 𝑝
𝑑
𝑖
where λ is the value at an unknown location. A formula like this applies to

many interpolators, such as Kriging; the issue is how the weights are computed.
With IDW it is simple to select a power 'p', usually around 2, and compute [120].
Advantages:
1- Can estimate extreme changes in terrain such as Cliffs, Fault Lines.

2- Dense evenly space points are well interpolated (flat areas with cliffs).
3- Can increase or decrease the number of sample points to influence cell
values.
Disadvantages:
1- Cannot estimate above maximum or below minimum values.
2- Not very good for peaks or mountainous areas.
35
2.14 Statistical Analysis
2.14.1 Mann-Kendall Test and Sens' Slope
An Excel template Mann-Kendall test for trend and Sens’ slope estimates
(MAKESENS) is developed for detecting and estimating trends in the time series
of annual, seasonal, and monthly values of atmospheric and precipitation
concentrations. In addition, MAKESENS not only performs statistical analyses
but also provides a simple graphical interface for the visual analysis of time series
and statistical findings. Microsoft Excel 97 was used to produce the MAKESENS
template, and Microsoft Visual Basic was used to develop the macros. There are
four spreadsheets in the template: About, Annual Data, Trend Statistics, and
Figure.
2.14.2 Mann-Kendall Test and the Magnitude of the Sen's Method Trend in
MAKESENS
MAKESENS has two different kinds of statistical analyses. The

nonparametric Mann-Kendall test having been tested, firstly the presence of a
monotonic trend that is growing or declining. Secondly, a nonparametric linear
trend slope is estimated by Sen's method, which is useful for Mann-Kendall's tests
(MK) in cases when the trend may be considered monotonous and hence the data
include no seasonal or other cycles. Sen's technique employs a linear model for
estimating the trend slope, and residual variance should be constant in time. These
methods have a variety of implications that make them effective for studying
atmospheric chemistry data. Missing values are acceptable, and the data does not
get to match into any certain distribution. Furthermore, single data errors or
outliers have little impact on Sen's technique [121].
Simple linear regression analysis could give us an essential sign of the

existence of a trend in times series, whereas another method, like the
36
nonparametric MK tests, were usually applied in hydrologic analysis, where

applied to discover trends that are monotonic and do not have to be linear.
2.14.3 Mann-Kendall Test
The Mann-Kendall Test (MK) test needs the assumption of normality, yet
the directions of significant trends will only be indicated but not the magnitude.
This test is useful in situations where data values xi of a time series may be
subjected to the model.
xi =f(ti)=Ɛi ………………………………………………………………… (2.8)
where xi is data values, f(ti) is continuous monotonic growing or

diminishing function with time, and Ɛi presumed to come from the same division
with zero means. Thus we can assume that the difference in the division is
constant with time. For testing the null hypothesis when there is no trend for
example the monitoring xi are randomly arranged with time, with the substitution
of hypothesis whereas a rising or declining monotonic trend. If the number of
annual values is nine data points or less, then the S-test will be applied, while the
normal approximation Z is applied to time series containing ten or more data
points [122].
Test statistic S as mentioned is used when the number of annual values in

the calculated data series symbolizes by n is nine or less the test S is shown, it
called MK test statistic S, the absolute value of S is compared to the probabilities
of MK non-parametric test for trend to define if there is a monotonic trend or not
at the level of significance. The positive or negative values of S indicate an
upward or downward trend respectively. When the number of n is greater than
nine the cell will be empty, the statistic S is calculated by:
𝑛
𝑆 = ∑𝑛−1
𝑘=1 ∑𝑗=𝑘+1 𝑠𝑔𝑛(𝑥𝑗 − 𝑥𝑘 ) …………………………………………. (2.9)
where xj and xk are the annual values in years, j and k respectively and
j > k.
37
1 if (xj-xk)>0
sgn(xj-xk)= 0 If (xj-xk)=0
-1 If (xj-xk)<0
The lower values of n with the four significance levels may approach were
derived from the likelihood table from S as shown in Table (2.1) [123]. The
significance level α is 0.001 which denotes the probability is 0.1% which are the
values xi for random distribution which denoted that presence of monotonic trend
is possible. While the significance level 0.1 denoted to 10% possibility that would
be a mistake to reject the null hypothesis.
Table (2.1): The significance level of α [123].

Number of annual values n
0.1
0.05
0.01
0.001
Test Z this statistic is used when the number of annual values in the
calculated data series symbolizes by n is 10 or more the test statistic z is displayed,
it called the normal approximation test Z.
Z has an absolute value equal to the standard normal cumulative
distribution to determine when the trend in the selected level α is of significance
or not. A positive or negative value of Z indicates an upward or downward trend
respectively when the number of n is less than 10 the cell stays empty. Although,
whether there are various tied values for example a similar value in the time series,
this may decrease the veracity of the normal distribution when the number of
values is near ten. The variance of S calculated by the next equation with
consideration that ties would be displayed as:
1 𝑞
𝑉𝐴𝑅(𝑠) = [𝑛(n-1)(2n+5)-∑𝑝=1 𝑡𝑝 (𝑡𝑝 − 1)(2𝑡𝑝 + 5)]………….……..(2.10)
18
38
where VAR(s) is the Function calculated the sample variance of supplied

sets of values, q is the number of tied groups, tp is the number of data values on
the pth group. The values of S and VAR(S) are combined to calculate the Z test as
follows:
………………….………………………..(2.11)
The existence of a significant trend is estimated by applying the Z value.

When the Z has a positive value that indicates an upward trend, and when the Z
value is negative then there is a downward trend [124]. The present study used the
Z statistics because the number of n is 21.
The smallest significance level test shows the null hypothesis of no trend
should be rejected. If n is 9 or less, the test is based on the S statistic. However, n
is at least 10 the test is based on the Z statistic. The template employs the
following symbols [121]:
*** if the trend at α = 0.001 level of significance.

** if the trend at α = 0.01 level of significance.
* if the trend at α = 0.05 level of significance.
+ if the trend at α = 0.1 level of significance.
if the trend at α > 0.1 level of significance.
2.14.4 Sen's Method

To evaluate and calculate valid slope for located trend for example the
changeover year, Sen's non-parametric method is applied. This method would
apply whereas trend would imply that it is linear, denoted to that f(t) in the
equation below is similar to model:
39
f(t) = 𝑄 t + B ……………………………………….……………………....(2.12)
where 𝑄 represents the slope, B is constant, to estimate 𝑄 first, all data value
pairs compute the slopes:
𝑥𝑗 −𝑥𝑘
𝑄= …………………………………………….……………..…. (2.13)
𝔧−𝒦
where 𝔧> 𝒦; the method in MAKESENS calculates the trusted period at

two levels of confidence; α = 0.1 and α = 0.05, produce in two various intervals.
The mean of values provides us a valuation of B, the valuation for the fixes B is
between (95-99%) authenticates intervals calculated in a similar procedure. The
confidence intervals are valid only if n is at least 10 and there are not many ties
(equal values). If n is less than 10, the constants 𝑄 and B for the confidence
intervals are not shown in MAKESENS [124].
2.15 Standard Deviation
In statistics, the Standard Deviation (SD) is a measure of the amount of

variation or dispersion of a set of values. A low standard deviation indicates that
the values tend to be close to the mean (also called the expected value) of the set,
while a high standard deviation indicates that the values are spread out over a
wider range, it can be represented mathematically by [126]:
∑(𝑥−𝜇)2
σ=√ …………………………………………………………….(2.14)
𝑁
where σ population standard deviation, x each value, μ population mean, N

number of values in the population.
40
2.16 Annual Rate of Change for Climate Variables
The method of a general trend and Annual Rate of Change (RC) was used
to clarify the changes occurring in the climatological variables of the study area.
To reveal the general trend and Rate of Change in the region, the general trend
was calculated for the annual averages of the time series of climate variables
during 21 years. Whereas, the trend coefficient was expressed in percentages of
all variables in the climate variables, as well as percentages of the annual and
seasonal Rate of Change according to the following equation[125]:
𝑓𝑓𝑄 𝑑𝑑
RC= − x100 ………………………………………………………….(2.15)
𝜒
where RC Rate of Change, Q refer to test that obtained from Sen's method
indicate the annual increasing or decreasing of a valid slope, and 𝑥̅ Arithmetic
mean.
2.17 Linear Regression and Correlation Coefficient
Much of statistical weather forecasting is based on the statistical procedure

known as linear, least-squares regression.
Regression analysis is a statistical tool that can produce data predictions.
The basic principle behind regression is to use one or more variables to predict
another variable of interest. The predictor variables are known as independent
variables and the variable that is being predicted is known as the dependent
variable [127]:
Y = a + bX …………………………….……………………………….… (2.16)
where Y is the dependent variable and X is the explanatory variable. The
slope of the line is (b), and (a) is the intercept (the value of Y when X = 0).
The coefficient of determination (R2) is an important tool in determining the
degree of linear correlation of variables (goodness of fit) in regression analysis.
∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖−ŷ)
2
2
R = 1-
∑𝑛 ̅)2
………………………………………………...(2.17)
𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖−𝑦
41
where yi Sample observed variable, ŷ Sample predicted variable, 𝑦̅: 𝑆ample

mean.
The Correlation coefficient (R) is a test of the linear relationship between

the measured and estimated value which is defined by [128]:
∑𝑛
𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖−ȳ) (𝑥𝑖−𝑥̅ )
R= …………………………………….…….(2.18)
√[∑𝑛 2 𝑛 2
𝑖=1(𝑦𝑖−ȳ) ][∑𝑖=1[ (𝑥𝑖−𝑥̅ ) ]
where yi is the estimated value, xi is the measured value , 𝑥̅ and ȳ are the
average value of the estimated and measured values respectively, n is the
observations count. The value closer to +1 or –1, is the stronger linear correlation.
The correlation coefficient (R) may be computed employing a computer-based
statistics program, Table (2.2) is used to evaluate correlation.
Table (2.2): Interpreting the range of correlation coefficients [129].

Range of Correlation Interpretation of Strength of correlation
0.9 < R = 1.0 (-0.9 > R = –1.0) Very strong positive (negative) correlation
0.7 < R < 0.9 (-0.7 > R > -0.9) Strong positive (negative) correlation
0.5 < R< 0.7 (-0.5 > R > -0.7) Moderate positive (negative) correlation
0.3 < R < 0.5 (-0.3 >R > -0.5) Weak positive (negative) correlation
0.0= R< 0.3 (0.0 = R> -0.3) No relationship
2.18 Multiple Linear Regression

Multiple linear regression is one of the modeling techniques used to
investigate the relationship between a dependent variable and several independent
variables. In the multiple linear regression model, the error term denoted by Ɛ is
assumed to be normally distributed with mean 0 and constant variance σ, Ɛ is also
assumed to be uncorrelated, on the assumption that the multiple linear regression
model has k independent variables and there are n observations. Thus the
regression model has been written by [130] as:
y= b0 + b1x1 + b2x2 + b3x3 + …. + bik xik + Ɛ ……………………………… (2.19)
where bi is the regression coefficients, xi is independent variables, Ɛ is an
error associated with the regression, and i= 1,…., n .
42
Chapter three Study Area, Datasets, and Methodology
Chapter three: Study Area, Datasets, and Methodology

3.1 Introduction
This chapter presented the study area, data sources, data collection, data
organization, also a description of the climate, hydrology, and geology of the
study area. Finally, determination of the methodology of this thesis.
The DEMs dataset were acquired from the United States Geological Survey
(USGS) Website. The database is World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS-84) were
used to extract and compute the area of the MDL watershed, the satellite images
for Landsat 5 TM, 7 ETM+, and 8 OLI, that explained with details in chapter two
were used to detect the changes in WSA of the lake. Finally, GIOVANNI is a site
that used as a source for climatological variables datasets include average monthly
minimum, maximum, mean temperatures, snow cover, snow depth, snowmelt,
and precipitation rate, for the study area during April and September for the period
2000 -2020 to analyze the variables in the qualitative and quantitative perspectives
related to the objectives.
3.2 Description of the Study Area
Mosul Dam is one of the large dams in the world, the second greatest dam
in the Middle East, and the largest dam in Iraq, due to the capacity of its reservoir
at a maximum operation level of 335 m.a.s.l and with maximum storage
volume11.13 × 106 km3 and a maximum water depth was 80 m [131]. The WSA
of its reservoir is 380 km2, the length is about 45 km, and the width ranges between
2 and 14 km at atop width including the spillway [12]. The dam has a concrete
spillway located on the left abutment. The crest elevation of the spillway is 330
m a.s.l and its length is 680 m. The spillway has five radial gates measuring
13.5 m×13.5 m giving a discharge of 12,600 m3.sec-1 at the maximum reservoir
level of 335 m a.s.l [132].
The dam high is 113 m, an earth-fill type with a mud core, the upstream
side is faced with rock. The maximum, normal and dead (minimum) storage levels
43
of its reservoir are 335, 330, and 300 m a.s.l respectively. The dam was designed
to impound 11.11 × 106 km3 of water at normal operation level, including
8.16×106 km3and 2.95×106 km3of live and dead storage respectively [132], see
Figure (3.1).
Figure (3.1): Mosul dam cross-section schematic diagram.
MDL is an artificial reservoir located between latitude (36˚36'N - 36˚50'N)

and longitude (42˚27'E - 42˚58'E), see Figure (3.2). Started operating in 1986 to
provide water for three irrigation projects one of its functions is to provide water
at a rate of 48 m3.sec-1for an irrigation project known as the “North Al-Jazira
Irrigation project” that covers an area of 625 km2 [11,46]. The dam has
constructed to serve many purposes such as flood control and hydropower
generation Mosul, build on Tigris River in northern Iraq approximately 50 km
northwest of Mosul city and 80 km from the Syrian and Turkish borders, also is
about 500 km distance to the north from Baghdad [133]. The shape of the reservoir
is almost elongated where then River Tigris enters the upper zone and expands
close to the dam site. In April and May, a most seasonal discharge occurs,
while there is less discharge in October and September. The lake receives water
from the Tigris River and collects the access water in the river during flood
seasons and recharges water to the river during dry seasons when Tigris River
water is deficient.
44
Figure (3.2): Location of Mosul dam lake.
3.3 Climate of Study Area
The climate of the catchment area may be regarded as being similar to a

Mediterranean climate except for some differences due to the presence of the
mountainous region which is located within Turkey, see Figure (3.3). The climate
is warm to hot dry during the summer and cold wet rainy during winter with
occasional snowfall taking place in the mountainous region.
Figure (3.3): Regional climate classification of Iraq [134].
45
The precipitation season within the Tigris River basin starts in October and
lasts until May. The annual precipitation over the Tigris basin ranges between 450
and 1000 mm [3]; whilst, the average regional precipitation for the Mosul Dam
watershed, is about 737 mm/year ranged between (601-1000) mm in which the
highest catchment area rate of precipitation is 701-800 mm, and it is 601-700 mm
at the dam site [41]. The heaviest precipitation occurs from December to
February. Generally, the snowmelt begins in February, Therefore the flood runoff
continues to May or early June. After this, the flow rates are reduced and the lower
rates occur from August to October during this period the main source of river
runoff is groundwater. The average monthly air temperatures range between 6°C
in January to 34°C in July but the air temperatures decrease towards the north
[46].
During Winter, the Siberian high-pressure system and subtropical jet

stream that form over Turkey, Arabian Peninsula, and North Africa, exert a
significant influence on the Iraq climate. Low-pressure configurations that affect
Iraq's climate are the Mediterranean and Sudan systems. In Summer the Indian
high pressure is the most important system for the Iraq climate, causing air
temperature increases [135].
3.4 Hydrology of the Study Area
The Tigris River is one of the two most important rivers in western Asia
and is the main source of water for the Mosul Dam Reservoir (MDR). The Tigris
River rises from Hazar lake, located in the southeastern region of Turkey. The
lake is surrounded by the Taurus mountain chain, the catchment area of the River
Tigris is geographically divided into three regions: mountainous, foothills, and
the plains region. Its estimated area upstream of MDR is about 54,900 km2, which
is shared by Turkey, Syria, and Iraq [136].
46
The Tigris River flows in the hilly regions located in the southwestern
portion of the mountainous area connecting Turkey, Iran, and Iraq. The River
crosses the Iraqi border in Faish Khabur village which is located about 400 km
from the main source and 128 km upstream of Mosul Dam. Four major
Tributaries: Batman, Garzan, Botan, and Al-Khabur feed the Tigris River north
of Mosul Dam from the left bank [3,137]. The channel of the Tigris River is
shallow and wide in the Diyarbakir area, but after it joins the Batman tributary it
becomes a narrow and deep river with high velocity.
The banks of the river valley have steep slopes from the right-hand side and
gentle low slopes from the left-hand side. The annual hydrograph for the Tigris
River starts from October to September.
Seven main valleys feed the reservoir from the left side and three from the right
side of the reservoir [138]. Due to the total storage volume of the MDL with a
maximum operation level leading to a drainage basin of about 4200 km2 inside
Iraq [139,141].
MDL received about (60-5000) m3/sec of discharge from Tigris River,

outflow amount varies from 100 to 1000 m3 since the manufacture of Mosul Dam
in 1985. The highest mean monthly discharge takes place during April and the
driest month is generally in September[142].
3.5 Geology of Study Area

The oldest exposed formation within the vicinity of the reservoir is the
Pilaspi Formation (L.Miocene). The exposures of this formation are confined to
the hilly areas. It is composed of dolostone, limestone, marl, and marly limestone.
In the plain areas, Lower and Upper Fars (Lower–Upper Miocene) formations are
exposed, the Lower Fars Formation (also referred to as the Fatha Formation) is
composed of alternating beds of limestone, gypsum, and siltstone, whilst the
Upper Fars Formation (also referred to as the Injana Formation) is composed of
47
alternating beds of sandstone and siltstone. In the northern part of the reservoir
near the inlet, the main geologic formations are Pilaspi and Ana which are
composed of limestone, while the Fatha and Injana Formations dominate the plain
area [143,144]. In the vicinity of Mosul Dam, the exposed formation is Lower
Fars. It is composed of alternating beds of limestone, marl, and gypsum [145].
3.6 The Used Software
Applications for scientific principles such as GIS and RS equipped with
GPS in detecting climatic variation are crucial in the world today in developed
developing countries.
In this study several types of software were used, ArcGIS has been used for
calculating the spatial change of the study area.
MAKESENS template is employed for detecting and estimating trends in
the time series of seasonal and annual values of climatological variables. The MK
test is a statistical test widely used for the analysis of the trend in climatologic and
hydrologic time series [146].
A Microsoft Excel program, graphs, and data analysis were used to draw
the results and to find the trend of climatological variables whether it increases or
decreases.
3.7 Dataset Source and Pre-processing Images
The various datasets were used in this study, DEMs, satellite images, and
climatic data. The following paragraphs illustrate the database in detail:
3.7.1 Digital Elevation Models Dataset and Sources
Data sources and processing methods for generating DEM have been
developed rapidly over the last few decades from ground surveying to passive
methods of remote sensing, and recently to active methods such as LiDAR and
RADAR interferometric with higher levels of accuracy, more detail, more rapid,
areal coverage, and at lower cost [147].
48
The NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission(SRTM) obtained elevation

data using Radar Interferometry with a spatial resolution of 30 m. The DEMs were
downloading as nine accurate images with free cloud in TIF format for all over
the globe in 23/09/2014.
DEMs were prepared before hydrological analysis, images were collected

using a mosaic tool, and were pre-georeferenced Geographic Coordinate System
(GCS) into Projected Coordinate System(PCS) Universal Transverse Mercator
(UTM) zone 38 North projection using WGS-84 datum as illustrated in a
preceding chapter. The images will be collected and exported into JBGE format
as ordinary and false colors where the coordinates are shown in Figure (3.4), these
data were used to extract the MDL watershed using hydrological analysis tools.
49
Figure(3.4) : SRTM 1 Arc Sec DEMs nine images.
50
3.7.2 Projected Data from the Geographic Coordinate System to the

Universal Transverse Mercator
The two most common projection systems are the Geographic Coordinate
System (GCS) and the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM).
Map projection is a system in which locations on the curved surface of the

earth are displayed on a flat sheet or surface according to a certain set of rules.
Mathematically, projection is the process of converting a global site into a flat
site. In general, the input maps collected from different sources are in different
projections, which requires transforming one or all of the maps to make the
coordinates compatible, and therefore, mathematical functions are needed for the
projections in the GIS. In this system, all horizontal lines are called Latitudes and
vertical lines are called Longitudes. The longitude and latitude system is perhaps
the best-known method for setting geographical coordinates, it can be expressed
in Decimal Degrees (DD) or Degrees, Minutes, and Seconds (DMS); The latter
gives numbers in a format that is the format usually used in GPS devices [148].
The familiar Mercator projection used on so many world maps is a

cylindrical projection, meaning the globe is encircled by an imaginary cylinder
touching at the equator, and the earth is projected onto the cylinder. Contrary to a
lot of geography texts, the projection is not what would result from placing a light
at the center of the earth and projecting the surface onto the cylinder [149].
The UTM coordinate system is a grid-based method for specifying

coordinates. Map projection in cartography is a way to present a two-dimensional
curved surface on a plane, such as a normal map [150]. All data must be in the
same projection, the topographic map was projected onto a satellite image and
georeferenced to the UTM projection, ‘WGS-1984, Zone 38N’in the Arc Info
program within Arc GIS software because it consists of metric units and is more
accurate than the geographic projection.
51
3.7.3 Mosaic Bands
A mosaic tool is a link or merger of two or more images. In ArcGIS Version

10.3, through this tool, a single raster dataset from multiple raster datasets can be
created by mosaicking them with each other. Data collected from the USGS EE
website as nine images of DEMs in TIF format, then applying mosaic function by
data management tools; as shown in Figures (3.5 and 3.6) :
Figure (3.5): SRTM DEMs nine images collected.
3.7.4 Depression less DEM (Fill)

This function fills the sinks in a grid. If cells with higher elevation surround
a cell, the water is trapped in that cell and cannot flow.
The fill sinks function modifies the elevation value to eliminate these
problems. It is important that eventually sinks or pits are removed from the DEM
to avoid discontinuities in the flow network. The sinks could be caused by errors
in the sampling points, during the generation of the DEM (false sinks), or they
could be naturally sunk in the terrain (true sinks).
52
In relatively steep terrain greater sinks than one meter could be assumed as
false. Sinks in the DEM used in this work have been removed by the sink filling
method, the height level in the sinks gradually is raised until the level of the lowest
outflow is reached [151]. SRTM DEMs data was used to drive watershed in this
study, the Raw SRTM data has been processed using the hydrology tools to
remove sinks an automated process, the fill raster is shown in Figure (3.6):
Figure (3.6): Mosaic and Fill raster for the study area.
3.8 Landsat Series Dataset
The forty satellite images of series Landsat (5TM, 7ETM+, and 8OLI
sensors) , see Table (3.1), which their path and Raw were 170 and 35 respectively
have been downloaded from the United States Geological Survey Earth Explorer
(USGS EE) database [152]. Best and cloud-less than 10% satellite images which
cover study area, bad images or contain defects have been excluded. These images
were gathered and employed to give clarifications on lake surface area
53
fluctuations for 21 years, acquired in April and September with 30 m ground

resolution and 185x185 km2 ground area.
Table (3.1): Landsat Series Dataset.
Landsat type year Date

15/April
2000
5 6/September
2/April
2001
9/ September
13/April
7 2002
4/September
10/April
5 2004
1/September
7 21/April
2005
20/September
31/march
2006
7/ September
21/may
5 2007
10/September
21/April
2008
12/ September
24/April
2009
15/ September
7 3/April
2010
5 17/August
14/ April
5 2011
21/ September
24/April
2012
7 15/ September
11/April
2013
10/ September
6/April
8 2014
13/ September
25/April
2015
2/ October
7 19/April
2016
2/ September
29/March
8 2017
5/ September
17/April
2018
8/ September
7 12/April
2019
8 11/ September
7 14/April
2020
8 13/ September
54
3.8.1 Clip Raster
Before utilizing this tool, the background /edge area from Landsat images
was removed to get zero value, this is often caused due to no data to display
around the data part of the image.
Clip Raster is utilized to extract part of a raster data by drawing the area
limits to be cut by the polygon tool, if the clip area specified is not stratifying with
the input raster data, this tool ensures that the proper alignment is used. This may
lead the output to have slightly different without this tool [153].
3.8.2 Correcting and Filling the Gaps in the Images of Landsat 7 ETM+
Sensor issues and errors tend to be either minor, predictable, and easily
corrected, or catastrophic resulting in the sensor being decommissioned. Minor
issues include such things as bad pixels, partial line or column dropouts, optical
corrections for color shift, fall off, and others. Also, line start problems can occur
where data at the beginning of a scan line is not collected. Some sensor issues are
more serious, such as striping when instead of a detector failing, it just gets out of
calibration with the other detectors. The result would be a stripe in the image when
the sensor is looking at the same object with multiple detectors at the same time.
This issue is commonly seen over water areas, where it is easy to see the striping.
One method for correcting a striping problem involves taking some average of the
pixels surrounding the stripe and substituting this average for the miscalibrated
data. Other modeling and convolution methods can also be used. Unfortunately,
some images from Landsat 7 which were used in this thesis suffering from the
SLC, as shown in Figure (3.7), some scenes collected have data gaps that were
affected to compute water surface , so processed by filling the gaps using Landsat
toolbox that can be download and activate in ArcGIS 10.3 program.
55
a) b)
Figure (3.7): Result of gap-filling for one band: a- original image b- image after gab-filling
3.8.3 Filter
Performs either a smoothing (Low pass) or edge-enhancing (High pass)

filter on a raster. The low filter option is an averaging (smoothing) filter and the
high filter option is an edge-enhancement filter. Input No Data cells may receive
a value in the output if the ignore No Data in calculations option is checked,
provided at least one cell within the filter neighborhood has a valid value.
3.9 Climatic Data and Resource
GIOVANNI is an acronym for the GES-DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences

Data and Information Services Center) Interactive Online Visualization ANd
aNalysis Infrastructure is a site that displays earth science data from National
Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) satellites directly on the Internet,
publicly available data Nationwide for many climate metrics.
GIOVANNI provides remote sensing data alongside several different basic

analytical capabilities, which include spatial maps of data variable values,
difference maps, area-averaged time series, animations, and vertical profiles of
atmospheric variables. The mapping capability includes rapid averaging, so that
mean values for months, seasons, or years can be visualized readily [154].
56
Climatological variables data for the period 2000 – 2020 based on satellite
data were downloaded from GIOVANNI and processed include time-averaged
map monthly, air temperatures, snow, and precipitation rate for the study area
during April and September to analyze the variables in the qualitative and
quantitative perspectives related to the objectives.
The time-averaged map of mean temperature, snow cover, and snow depth
monthly data were downloaded from (FLDAS-NOAH01-C-GL-Mv001) sensor
with a spatial resolution of 0.1 degrees over January 2000-December 2020. The
snow depth data were converted to (mm), and the mean temperature data
originally in the Kelvin unit (K), were converted to Celsius (ºC) using the math
algebra tool.
The time-averaged map of maximum and minimum temperature monthly

data were downloaded from the (MODIS11C3v006) sensor for the TERRA
satellite with a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees over Februarys 2000-December
2020.
The time-averaged map of snowmelt monthly data was downloaded from

(GLDAS-NOAH025-M v2.1) sensor with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees over
January 2000-September 2020, the snowmelt data was converted to mm.
The time-averaged map of precipitation rate monthly was downloaded from

the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM-3B 43 V7) sensor mm/month
with a spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees over January 2000-December 2019.
3.9.1 Missing Data
The missing data of any climate data are one of the problems, there are
several alternative ways to deal with the missing data. In this thesis, the mean
method has been used to find the missing climate data, which is one of the
common and simplest ways. This method depends on finding the total mean of
month values, which is used by many researchers to find the missing data.
57
3.10 Methodology
This section presents the methodology and all techniques that were adopted
in this thesis. All these datasets were pre-processed, processed, analyzed, and
interpreted using the ArcGIS 10.3 software, the process including three main
steps; extracting the watershed of MDL, detecting the changes on the lake, finally
identification spatial and temporal distribution of the lake watershed, as illustrated
in Figure (3.8):
Figure (3.8): Flowchart showing the overall methods adopted in the study.
58
3.10.1 Extract Watershed of Mosul Dam lake
RS techniques have been applied to extract the feeding watershed of the

lake using hydrological analysis tools in ArcGIS10.3 software. Nine DEM images
coverage areas were obtained from USGS to represent the region's topography
with a resolution of 30 meters. The main steps in this stage include filling sink,
identification of flow direction, calculation of flow accumulation, and determine
point drainage and watershed.
The flow direction was calculated based on the most widely used D8
algorithm and defines the direction of the slope for each cell. A grid of flow
accumulation where created by determining the number of upstream cells draining
to a given cell, finally the watershed was delineated and extract by mask to
compute the study area, Figure (3.9) illustrates the steps of processing DEM data
to extract the watershed of the study area.
Figure (3.9): Steps of extract the watershed study area from DEM data.
59
3.10.2 Detecting the Changes in Mosul Dam Lake

The purpose of the current step is to calculate the variations of water area
extent for a mentioned lake where the area of a lake is changed according to the
seasons, these data were collected to give explanations on lake surface area
fluctuations for 21 years. Forty images Landsat series (5TM, 7ETM+, and 8OLI)
sensors types were used, the extraction and delineation of WSA is a significant
step. Spectral Water indices, includes NDWI, and iso cluster unsupervised
classification techniques were used to extracting water bodies and computing
water areas. The methods have been applied to subsets of the Landsat series
images that many acquired during April and September. Figure (3.10) illustrates
the main techniques used to detect changes in the lake surface area.
Figure (3.10): Steps to drive the WSA for the study area from a satellite image.
60
3.10.3 Studying the Impacts of Climate Variables on Mosul Dam Lake
This step aims to assess the effect of climatological variables on the lake
feeding watershed, by applying spatial interpolation methods, where maps are
prepared to distribute some climatological variables data and studying their
relationship with the water area of lake by determining the correlation coefficient
and multiple regression through identifying, analyzing, and evaluating the change
in the lake and the impact of climatological variables in all years of the study.
Datasets include average monthly air temperatures, snow, and precipitation rate
were downloaded with different spatial resolutions, as shown in Figure (3.11)
Figure (3.11): Steps to drive the climatic maps.
61
Chapter Four Results and Discussion
Chapter Four: Results and Discussion
4.1 Introduction
This chapter presents data processed, analyzed, and interpret the results.
The process including three steps, the hydrological analyses technique including
flow direction, flow accumulation, and determining the drainage point. Spatial
detecting including NDWI and unsupervised classification techniques. Spatial
and temporal analysis, computing the annual Rate of change for each climatic
variable, finally interpreting the correlations between water area and climatic
variable in April and September for a given period.
4.2 Hydrological Analysis
4.2.1 Flow Direction
The flow direction from every cell is a crucial step in hydrological analysis
that assigns a value to each cell to indicate the direction that water will flow from
that particular cell. The D8 algorithm is used for determining flow direction that
is calculated by comparing the distance weighted drop of neighboring cells where
the main idea behind assigning a flow direction is to determine which of the eight
neighboring cells has a lower elevation to be each cell has a flow direction before
any hydrologic analysis. If a cell is lower than its eight neighbors it is assigned a
value of 0 meaning it is an outlet or sink. When running this tool the following
values: 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, and 128 indicates a direction of flow ; as shown by
Figure (4.1).
62
Figure (4.1): Flow direction raster.
4.2.2 Flow Accumulation
The results of this process is a raster depiction of the stream network

showing the progressive accumulation of water values range from 0 to highs
topographic value, where streams show a value greater than 0 in white and gray
color and other cells which have 0 show in black color, as shown in Figure (4.2).
Figure (4.2): Flow accumulation raster.
63
4.2.3 Drainage Point
The border and drainage (outlet) area of the watershed can delineate by the
outlet point of the watershed and using the watershed mask. The input flow
direction raster is analyzed to find all sets of connected cells that belong to the
same drainage watershed. The drainage watersheds are created by locating the
pour points at the edges of the analysis window, as well as sinks, then identifying
the contributing area above each pour point. To increase model reliability, the
delineation process of the Mosul watershed was based on the main outlet point
which is located at the lowest height, usually choosing near the lake dam
downstream. Watershed is delineated as raster data which is located in the
northwest of Iraq and southwest of Turkey. Ultimately, converting to polygon
(vector) data to calculate geometry watershed area. The results of the Mosul
watershed delineation show the overall drainage area was 30806 km2. The
elevation ranges from 328 m in the south and northwest to 3622 m in the
northeastern part of the watershed, as shown in Figure (4.3).
Figure (4.3): Feeding watershed of Mosul dam lake raster.
64
4.3 Spatial Analysis
4.3.1 Normalized Difference Water Index
This technique has been used mainly to separate and identify water bodies
from other types of land covers. The NDWI was calculated according to the
equations (2.3 and 2.4), where the spectral reflectivity of the water is high in the
range of the green wavelength (0.52-0.60 μm) and low in the range of NIR (0.76-
0.90 μm). Figure (4.4) shows the results of applying the NDWI, the values of
NDWI were ranged from −1 to +1. Figures (4.5 - 4.14) show variations in NDWI
values from month to month and even from year to year.
Figure (4.4): NDWI for Landsat images in 2 April 2001.
65
Figure (4.5): NDWI images for 2000-2001.
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
4.3.2 Iso Cluster Unsupervised Classification Technique
Image classification is the process of sorting pixels into a finite number of

individual classes, or categories, of data based on their pixel values. If a pixel
satisfies a certain set of criteria, then the pixel is assigned to the class that
corresponds to that criterion. In this step, data for each year were classified into 6
unique classes, Iso cluster unsupervised classification requires manual post-
processing to determine the individual classes. It analyzes the individual pixel
value of each pixel in the selected raster image and classifies the image based on
pixel brightness values and the desired number of classes. Upon completion of
classification, the 6 classes in the Figures above were re-classified and merged
into 2 distinct classes, water, and non-water, to represent a more accurate class
definition as well as to clean up some of the noise created by unsupervised
classification, see Figure (4.15).
Figure (4.15): Unsupervised classification technique for Landsat images in 2 April 2001.
The process of image classification is the most important step in the
processing of digital images as they are the final outcome of these processes. The
unsupervised classification was applied on the NDWI images, it is scientifically
76
used to classify the data into two categories consisted of water and non-water
objects the difference between them is based on combinations of two or more
spectral bands to calculate WSA of water bodies.
Results are displayed in the following Figures (4.16 - 4.22) show: the body
of the lake witnessed a clear variation from season to season especially on the
northwest part of the lake, with more variation in April in which the water area at
the highest value, and there was also a variation from year to year when a
maximum value in 2002 and minimum value in 2018.
Figure (4.16): Binary maps for 2000 and 2001.
77
Figure (4.17): Binary maps for 2002,2004, and 2005.
78
79
80
Figure (4.20): Binary maps for 2012, 2013, and 2014.
81
82
Figure (4.22): Binary maps for 2018,2019 and 2020.
83
Figure (4.23); as expected, the maximum WSA of the lake was calculated
to be about 327 km2 in April 13, 2002, when the air temperature recorded the
lowest value compared with others in the same periods. However, snow cover,
snow depth, snowmelt, and precipitation rate recorded the highest values during
April for 21 periods. In September 8, 2018, the minimum WSA of the lake was
calculated at about 180 km2. In April 2019, there is a clear variation in the area of
lake was 315 km2 compared to the previous year, likely reason is the lower air
temperature and the higher snow cover, snow depth, snowmelt, and precipitation
rate during April compared with others in the same study periods.
Since the peak average monthly discharge (wet months) happens

throughout April and the driest month is mostly during September. Overall, the
general behavior of the lake is witnessing a decrease in the area during 21years.
Figure (4.23): The water area in April and September.
Table (4.1) shows the significant results obtained by neglecting the

influence of the human factor on the lake for seasonal and annual changes in
rainfall, snow, and air temperature. The values of WSA fluctuated over the period
given, where the values below the mean area were written by normal font and the
84
values above of mean area were written by bold font. The total average surface
area of the lake was 258.7 km2. In April, the average surface area of the lake was
265.4 km2, while during September was 252 km2 this variation is maybe to
climatic variables such as temperature, snow, evaporation, and precipitation rate.
In addition to the effects of climate change on the lake area, other influences
lead to expanding and diminishing in water surface most likely because of the
month-to-month inflows got by Mosul reservoir from Tigris River, account of the
controlling of water imports by neighboring countries, the regional arrangement,
and it could be a result of the uses of the water that feeds the lake for irrigation,
urban use, agriculture, and industry.
Table (4.1): Area of Lake in April and September.

Area in Area in Area in Area in
Year Year
April km2 Sep. km2 April km2 Sep. km2
2000 281 287 2011 225 238
2001 271 276 2012 269 257
2002 327 304 2013 246 264
2004 296 308 2014 229 197
2005 320 280 2015 276 191
2006 282 261 2016 232 220
2007 283 256 2017 220 226
2008 264 237 2018 180 185
2009 272 226 2019 315 276
2010 225 258 2020 295 293
85
4.4 Spatial Distribution of Climate Data
The maps of the climatological variables (air temperatures, snow, and

precipitation) were produced from the climate data, using the IDW method to
detect the spatial variability in a lake. The values of climatological data in the
interpolation map were isolated to 9 classes and then reclassified into 3or 4 classes
to distinguish a change in the climatic zones. The average monthly climatological
data were organized into two months, April and September, to explain the change
in the lake’s area.
As stated earlier, IDW interpolation follows the assumption that things

close to one another are more alike than those farther apart. In the study area, the
data were downloaded converted from raster to grid point, to produce air
temperatures, snow, and precipitation distribution maps. The spatial distribution
of climatological variables should be in the field of GIS technique by IDW method
which is the most effective through using ArcGIS software.
4.4.1 Air Temperature
The monthly average air temperature map converted to grid point to

produce air temperature map, Applying the IDW method for map, see Figure
(4.24).
a) b)
Figure (4.24): a) The monthly average air temperature map

b) Applying the IDW method for map.
86
Figure (4.25 a) shows the spatial distribution of the average monthly

maximum (daytime) temperature data where ranged (7-38) oC, the study area
classified into four categories with interval value 7.75, the lake was determined in
the southern region at the highest maximum temperature class. It can be seen from
Table (4.2) the highest maximum temperature ranging from (30.25-38) oC which
covers about 46.27%, while the lowest maximum temperatures in the northeast
region ranged between (7-14.75) oC which covers about 9.67 % of the study area.
The spatial distribution of the average monthly minimum (Nighttime)

temperature shown in Figure (4.25 b) where ranged (-6-19) oC, where the study
area was classified into four categories with an interval value of 6.25, the highest
minimum temperatures were determined in the southern region. From Table (4.2)
the highest minimum temperatures ranging from (12.75-19) oC with a percentage
area of 34.28 % where the lake was found, while the lowest minimum
temperatures at the eastern region ranged between (-6-0.25) oC with a percentage
area of 10.02%.
Figure (4.25 c) shows the spatial distribution of the average monthly mean
temperature data where ranged (1-23) oC, where the study area was classified into
four categories with an interval value of 5.5. The lake was determined in the
southern region at the highest mean temperatures class. From Table (4.2) the
highest mean temperatures ranging from (17.5-23) oC which covers about 55.5%
of the study area, while the lowest mean temperatures in the eastern region ranged
between (1-6.5) oC which covers about 6.29% of the study area map.
87
a)
b)
c)
Figure(4.25): The spatial distribution of average monthly a) max, b) min, and c) mean
temperature, applying IDW and classification method for map.
88
Table(4.2): Study area classes percentage of max, min, and mean temperature.
Max Temperature oC Area of class km2 Class percentage
7-14.75 5409 9.76 %
14.75-22.5 10882 19.63 %
22.5-30.25 13499 24.35 %
30.25-38 25658 46.27 %
Min Temperature oC Area of class km2 Class percentage

10.02%
-6- 0.25 5556
14.67%
0.25-6.5 8133
41.03%
6.5-12.75 22749
34.28%
12.75-19 19010
Mean Temperature oC Area of class km2 Class percentage

6.29%
1-6.5 3715
18.62%
6.5-12 10994
19.58%
12-17.5 11560
55.50%
17.5-23 32764
4.4.2 Snow
The result of spatial distribution for snow cover was given in Figure (4.26 a).
The spatial distribution of average monthly snow cover ranged (0-0.52), where
the study area was classified into four categories with an interval value of 0.13.
The highest snow cover values were found in the northeast part of the lake feeding
watershed. From Table (4.3) the highest snow cover ranging from (0.39-0.52)
which covers about 8.89% of the study area, while the lowest snow cover values
extended from the northwest through the center to the south feeding watershed
which lake was found ranging between (0-0.13) which covers about 56.21% of
the study area.
89
Figure (4.26 b) shows the result of snow depth spatial distribution. The
spatial distribution of average monthly snow depth was ranged (0-421) mm,
where the study area was classified into four categories with an interval value of
105.25. The highest snow depth values were determined in the eastern part of the
lake feeding watershed. From Table (4.3) it can be seen that the highest snow
depth ranging from (315.75-421) mm covers about 3.64% of the study area, while
the lowest snow depth values extended from the northwest through the center to
the south feeding watershed which lake was found, ranged between (0-105.25)
mm which covers about 68.25% of the study area.
The spatial distribution of average monthly snowmelt ranged (0.0002-

0.862) mm; Figure (4.26 c), where the study area was classified into four
categories with an interval value of 0.215. The highest snowmelt values were
found in the north and northeast parts of the lake watershed. From Table (4.3) it
can be seen that the highest snowmelt ranging from (0.646- 0.862) mm which
covers about 25.16% of the study area, while the lowest snowmelt values
extended from the northwest through the center to the south watershed which lake
was found ranged between (0.0002-0.215) mm which covers about 51.01% of the
study area.
90
a)
b)
c)
Figure(4.26): The spatial distribution of average monthly a) snow cover, b) snow

depth, and c) snowmelt, applying IDW and classification method for map.
91
Table(4.3): Study area classes percentage of snow cover, snow depth, and snowmelt.
Snow Cover Area of class km2 Class percentage
0-0.13 11485 56.21%
0.13-0.26 3159 15.46%
0.26-0.39 3974 19.45%
0.39-0.52 1816 8.89%

Snow Depth mm Area of class km2 Class percentage
0-105.25 13947 68.25%
105.25-210.5 3768 18.44%
210.5-315.75 1976 9.67%
315.75-421 743 3.64%

Snow Melt mm Area of class km2 Class percentage
0.0002-0.215 11977 51.01 %
0.215 -0.431 3151 13.42%
0.431-0.646 2443 10.41%
0.646- 0.862 5907 25.16%
4.4.3 Precipitation Rate

From Figure (4.27) it can be seen that the spatial distribution of the average
monthly precipitation rate ranged (30.13-78.5) mm/month, where the study area
was classified into three categories with an interval value of 16.2. The highest
precipitation rate values were extended from the north to the east part of the lake
feeding watershed.
From Table (4.4) the highest precipitation rate ranging from (62.3-78.5)
mm/month which covers about 43.69% of the study area, while the lowest
precipitation rate values at south with a small part in the west and east feeding
watershed ranged between (30.13-46.25) mm/month which covers about 9.14%
of the study area.
92
Figure(4.27): The spatial distribution of average monthly precipitation rate.
Table(4.4): Study area classes of percentage precipitation rate.
Precipitation Rate mm/month Area of class km2 Class percentage

30.13- 46.25 1995 9.14%
46.25-62.3 10291 47.16%
62.3-78.5 9534 43.69%
4.5 Temporal Analysis of Climate Data

The seasonal and annual trends of climatological variables have been done
using the Mann-Kendall test employing MAKESENS for the time series for the
given period. Where the MK test is one of the most popularly applied tests to
detect trends in hydrologic time series.
The seasons of maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures were defined

using the standard meteorological definition: Winter represented by (January,
February, and March), Spring represented (April, May, and June), Summer season
represented by (July, August, and September), and finally Autumn represented by
(October, November, and December). While, the Winter seasons of snow cover,
snow depth, snowmelt, and precipitation rate represented by (December, January,
and February), Spring represented by (March, April, and May), Summer season
93
is represented by (June, July, and August), finally, Autumn represented by

(September October, and November).
4.5.1 Air Temperature
Figures (4.28 and 4.29); show the seasonal and annual maximum
temperature trends, it can be seen that there is a significant trend of maximum
temperature. In the winter and spring seasons, the results reveal a slight decrease
in the trend, while a slight increase during the summer and autumn seasons. The
annual maximum temperature for the study area shows that there is warming and
an increase with time for all years.
14.00
Winter
Maximum Temperature oc
12.00
10.00
8.00
6.00
4.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Years
Data Sen's estimate
36.00
Spring
34.00
32.00
30.00
28.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Years Data Sen's estimate
Figure (4.28): Seasonal maximum temperature.
94
46.00
Summer
44.00
42.00
40.00
38.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
25.00
Autumn
20.00
15.00
10.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
27.00
Annual
26.00
25.00
24.00
23.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.29): Seasonal and annual maximum temperature.

The results show maximum temperature characteristics in the study area, it
is clear that the average monthly maximum temperature is highest in July 44.4 oC,
and is the lowest value in January 4.2 oC. Seasonally, the highest registered
average maximum temperature is in the summer season 42.7 oC and the lowest
average maximum temperature is 9.4 oC in the winter season. Annually, the
annual mean maximum temperature is 25.3 oC. Also, Standard Deviation (SD) has
been found since it calculates the variation in the data. Lower the SD leads to
lower variation in data and vice versa, the value of annual SD is 0.7.
95
The highest value of seasonal SD is 1.5 in the autumn season, while the
lowest SD value is 0.9 noticed in summer seasons. It can be seen from Table (4.5);
that the Mann-Kendall test confirmed an upward and downward trend. The
seasonal and annual mean maximum temperatures have an increasing trend,
except winter and spring, which have a decreasing trend. Sen's Slope method
indicated the annual maximum temperature increasing is 0.019 oC/year this trend
corresponds to an increase of 0.4 oC for 21 years.
Figures (4.30 and 4.31); show the seasonal and annual trends of minimum
temperature, it can be seen that there is a significant trend of minimum
temperature and the most increase in all trends during winter, spring, summer, and
autumn seasons. The annual minimum temperature for the study area shows that
there was warming and an increase with time for all years.
0.00
1998 2001 2004 2007
Winter2010 2013 2016
Minimum Temperature oc
-2.00
-4.00
-6.00 Data Sen's estimate

Years
14.00
Spring
13.00
12.00
11.00
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Figure (4.30): Seasonal minimum temperature.
96
22.00
Summer
Minimum Temperature oc 21.00
20.00
19.00
18.00
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
6.00
Autumn
4.00
2.00
0.00
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
10.00
Annual
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Figure (4.31): Seasonal and annual minimum temperature.
The results show the minimum temperature characteristics in the study

area, it is clear that the average monthly minimum temperature is highest in July
22.48 oC, and its lowest value in January -5.05 oC. Seasonally, the highest
registered value is in the summer season 20.66 oC and the lowest is -2.34 oC in
the winter season. Annually, the annual mean minimum temperature is 8.595 oC.
also, the value of the annual SD is 0.6. The highest value of seasonal SD is 1.21
in the winter season, while the lowest SD value is 0.62 noticed in summer seasons.
97
In summer, the significant level is (If trend at α=0.01 level of significance

**) more confidence during the given period. It can be seen from Table (4.5) that
the Mann-Kendall test confirmed upward in all trends, the seasonal and annual
mean minimum temperature have an increasing trend. Sen's Slope method
indicated the annual minimum temperature increasing is 0.05 oC/year this trend
corresponds to an increase of 1.06 oC for 21 years.
Figures (4.32 and 4.33); show the seasonal and annual trends of mean
temperature, it can be seen that there is a significant trend of mean temperature
and a slight increase in the trends during the winter and autumn season, and the
most increasing trends during the summer season. While in the spring season the
results reveal a very slight decrease in the trend. The annual mean temperature for
the study area shows that there warming and is increasing with time for all years.
8.00
Winter
Mean Temperature oc
6.00
4.00
2.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
21.00
Spring
Mean Temperature oc
20.00
19.00
18.00
17.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.32): Seasonal mean temperature.
98
29.00
Summer
Mean Temperature oc
28.00
27.00
26.00
25.00
24.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
16.00
Autumn
Mean Temperature oc
13.00
10.00
7.00
4.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
17.50
Annual
Mean Temperature oc
16.50
15.50
14.50
13.50
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.33): Seasonal and annual mean temperature.
The results show the mean temperature characteristics in the study area, it
is clear that the average monthly mean temperature is highest in July 28.32 oC,
and its lowest value in January 1.62 oC. Seasonally, the highest registered average
mean temperature is in the summer season is 26.91oC and the lowest average mean
temperature is 4.22 oC in the winter season. Annually, the average annual mean
temperature is 15 oC and the value of the annual SD is 0.54.
99
The highest value of seasonal SD is 1.17 in the winter season, while the
lowest SD value is 0.66 noticed in the spring seasons. In summer, the significant
level is (If trend at α=0.05 level of significance *) more confidence during the
given period. It can be seen from Table (4.5), that the Mann-Kendall test
confirmed the upward and downward trends, the average seasonal and annual
mean temperature have an increasing trend except spring has decreased. Sen's
Slope method indicated the annual temperature increasing is 0.029 oC/year this
trend corresponds to an increase of 0.612 oC for study years.
Table (4.5): Mann-Kendall test and Sens’slope results (Z and Q test) for temperatures.
Q Test for one Q Test for 21
Season Z test Annual mean
year year
Maximum Temperature
Winter -0.09 -0.007 -0.15 9.38
Spring -0.51 -0.029 -0.61 31.51
Summer 0.63 0.014 0.29 42.71
Autumn 0.69 0.057 1.2 17.76
Annual 0.27 0.019 0.4 25.34
Minimum Temperature
Winter 1.06 0.056 1.17 -2.34
Spring 2.02 0.049 1.02 12.62
Summer 2.87 0.048 1.01 20.66
Autumn 1.96 0.067 1.40 3.43
Annual 2.33 0.050 1.06 8.595
Mean Temperature
Winter 0.69 0.031 0.659 4.2
Spring -0.21 -0.006 -0.117 18.6
Summer 2.02 0.042 0.875 27
Autumn 1.30 0.056 1.185 10.3
Annual 1.90 0.029 0.612 15
100
4.5.2 Snow
Figures (4.34 and 4.35) show the seasonal and annual trends of snow cover,
it can be seen that there is a significant trend of snow cover and a very slight
decrease in the trend during winter, and at stationary state (no change) in spring,
summer and autumn seasons. The annual snow cover for the study area shows that
there is a decreasing trend with time for all years.
0.35
Winter
0.30
Snow Cover
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.20
Spring
0.15
Snow Cover
0.10
0.05
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Years
Data Sen's estimate
0.00
Summer
0.00
Snow Cover
0.00
0.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Years
Data Sen's estimate
Figure (4.34): Seasonal snow cover.
101
0.06
Autumn
Snow Cover 0.04
0.02
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.15
Annual
0.10
Snow Cover
0.05
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.35): Seasonal and annual snow cover.

The snow cover characteristics in the study area, it is clear that the monthly
average snow cover is highest in January 0.3054, and the lowest values in July,
August, September are 0. Seasonally, the highest registered average snow cover
is in winter season 0.271 and the lowest average snow cover is 0.0001 in the
summer season. Annually, the annual average snow cover is 0.093. Furthermore,
the value of the annual SD is 0.015 and the highest value of seasonal SD is 0.0392
in the winter season, while the lowest SD value is 0.0003 noticed in summer
seasons. It can be seen from Table (4.6) that the Mann-Kendall test confirmed
negative and no change trends, the seasonal and annual mean snow cover spring,
autumn, and summer have no change trend, except in winter has decreased. In
winter, the significant level is (If trend at α=0.1 level of significance +) more
confidence during the given period. Sen's Slope method indicated the annual snow
cover decreasing is -0.001 per year this trend corresponds to a decrease of -0.015
for study years.
102
Figures (4.36 and 4.37); show the seasonal and annual trends of snow
depth. It can be seen that there is a significant trend of snow depth and the most
decrease in the trend during the winter season, a slight decrease in spring season,
very slight decrease during autumn, while summer season at stationary state. The
annual snow depth shows that there is a decreasing trend with time for all years.
200.00
Winter
150.00
Snow Depth mm
100.00
50.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
150.00
Spring
Snow Depth mm
100.00
50.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.80
Summer
0.60
Snow Depth mm
0.40
0.20
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.36): Seasonal snow depth.
103
15.00
Autumn
Snow Depth mm 10.00
5.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
80.00
Annual
60.00
Snow Depth mm
40.00
20.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.37): Seasonal and annual snow depth.
The snow depth characteristics in the study area, it is clear that the monthly
average snow depth is highest in February 140.41 mm, and is lowest values in
July, August, and September are 0 mm. Seasonally, the highest registered average
snow depth is in the winter season 105.73 mm and the lowest average snow depth
is 0.03 mm in the summer season. Annually, the annual average snow depth is
37.3 mm and the value of the annual SD is 13.21. The highest value of seasonal
SD is 30.54 in the spring season, while the lowest SD value is 0.12 noticed in
summer seasons. It can be seen from Table (4.6) that the Mann-Kendall test
confirmed the upward and stationery trends, the seasonal and annual mean snow
depth have decreased in all trends except summer have no change. Sen's Slope
method indicated the annual snow depth decreasing is -0.422 mm per year this
trend corresponds to a decrease of -8.858 mm for study years.
104
Figures (4.38 and 4.39); show the seasonal and annual trends of snowmelt,
it can be seen that there is a significant trend of snowmelt and the most decrease
in the trends during winter and spring seasons. While the summer and autumn
seasons have no change. The annual snowmelt for the study area is characterized
by decreasing trend with time for all years.
0.08
Winter
0.06
Snow Melt mm
0.04
0.02
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Years
Data Sen's estimate
0.12
Spring
0.10
Snow Melt mm
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.00
Summer
0.00
Snow Melt mm
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.38): Seasonal snowmelt.
105
0.01
Autumn
0.01
Snow Melt mm
0.01
0.00
0.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
0.05
Annual
0.04
Snow Melt mm
0.03
0.02
0.01
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Figure (4.39): Seasonal and annual snowmelt.

The snowmelt characteristics in the study area, it is clear that the monthly
average snowmelt is highest in March 0.075 mm, and is lowest values in June,
July, August, September, and October are 0 mm. Seasonally, the highest
registered average snowmelt in the spring season is 0.039 mm, and the lowest
average snowmelt is 0 mm in the summer season. Annually, the annual average
snowmelt is 0.0195 mm and the value of the annual SD is 0.007. The highest value
of seasonal SD is 0.023 in the spring season, while the lowest SD value is 0
noticed in summer seasons. It can be seen from Table (4.6) that the Mann-Kendall
test confirmed downward and no change trends. The seasonal and annual mean
snowmelt have decreased in winter and spring, except autumn and summer have
no change trends. In all seasons, the significant level is (If trend at α=0.001 level
of significance ***) more confidence during the given period. Sen's Slope method
indicated the annual snowmelt decreasing is -0.001 mm per year this trend
corresponds to a decrease of -0.013 mm for all years.
106
Table (4.6): Mann-Kendall test and Sens’slope results (Z and Q test) for snow.
Z test Annual
Season Q Test for one year Q Test for 21 year
mean
Snow Cover
Winter -1.78 -0.002 -0.042 0.271
Spring -0.27 0 -0.010 0.083
Summer -0.48 0 0 0
Autumn -0.57 0 -0.007 0.016
Annual -1.24 -0.001 -0.015 0.093
Snow Depth
Winter -0.94 -1.579 -33.166 105.73
Spring -0.39 -0.121 -2.547 40.06
Summer -0.30 0 0 0.03
Autumn -0.69 -0.047 -0.992 3.39
Annual -1.06 -0.422 -8.858 37.30
Snow Melt
Winter -1.14 -0.001 -0.020 0.0369
Spring -1.8 -0.002 -0.036 0.0392
Summer -0.29 0 0 0
Autumn -0.40 0 -0.001 0.0020
Annual -1.2 -0.001 -0.013 0.0195
4.5.3 Precipitation Rate
Figures (4.40 and 4.41); show the seasonal and annual trends of the
precipitation rate, it can be seen that there is a significant trend of precipitation
rate and an increase in the trends during autumn, summer, and spring season
except winter season have decreased in trend. The annual precipitation rate for the
study area shows that there is an increase with time for all years.
107
150.00
Winter
precipitation rate mm/month
100.00
50.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
150.00
Spring
100.00
50.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
15.00
Summer
10.00
5.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
80.00
Autumn
60.00
40.00
20.00
0.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Years
Data Sen's estimate
Figure (4.40): Seasonal precipitation rate.
108
60.00
Annual
precipitation rate mm/month 50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
Years
Data Sen's estimate
Figure (4.41): Annual precipitation rate.

The precipitation rate characteristics in the study area, it is clear that the
monthly average precipitation rate is highest in April 72.62 mm/month, and is the
lowest value in August 3.98 mm/month. Seasonally, the highest registered
average precipitation rate is in the winter season is 66.27 mm/month, and the
lowest average precipitation rate is 6.37 mm/month in the summer season.
Annually, the annual mean precipitation rate is 42.09 mm/month and the value of
the annual SD is 6.93. The highest value of seasonal SD is 16.88 in the spring
season, while the lowest SD value is 2.48 noticed in summer seasons. It can be
seen from Table (4.7) that the Mann-Kendall test confirmed the upward and
downward trends, the seasonal and annual mean precipitation rates have
increasing trends except winter has decreased. Sen's Slope method indicated the
annual precipitation rate increasing is 0.141 mm/month per year this trend
corresponds to an increase of 2.954 mm/month for study years.
Table (4.7): Mann-Kendall test and Sens’slope results (Z and Q test) for precipitation rate.
Season Z test Q Test for one year Q Test for 21 year Annual mean
Winter -0.75 -0.573 -12.028 66.274
Spring 0.94 0.612 12.844 62.317
Summer 1.01 0.138 2.895 6.373
Autumn 0.49 0.269 5.645 33.412
Annual 0.49 0.141 2.954 42.094
109
4.6 Annual Rate of Change

Table (4.8); shows the result of Annual Rate of Change for climate
variables that obtained using equation (2.15). The changes occurring in the
maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures, where the minimum temperature
has the greatest annual Rate of Change is 12.28, while the lowest annual Rate of
Change is 1.57 in maximum temperature for all study period.
The snow cover, snow depth, and snowmelt have occurring changes where
the snowmelt has a greatest decreased annual Rate of Change is -64.740, while
the lowest decreased annual Rate of Change is -16.003 in snow cover for all study
periods. The annual Rate of Change for precipitation is 7.017.
For seven climatological variables, the snowmelt has the greatest annual
Rate of Change, this means it is more impact on the lake than other variables.
Table (4.8): Annual Rate of Change for climate variables.
Season Rate of Change % Rate of Change % for period study

Max Temp. 0.07 1.57
Min Temp. 0.58 12.28
Mean temp. 0.19 4.08
Snow cover -0.762 -16.003
Snow depth -1.13 -23.75
Snow melt -3.083 -64.740
Precipitation Rate 0.334 7.017
110
4.7 Statistical Analysis

4.7.1 Correlation Coefficient
The Pearson Correlation Coefficient (R) between Area of Lake (AOL) and
variables were calculated according to equation (2.18) and tabulated in Tables
(4.9 and 4.10).
The correlation between AOL and maximum temperature is shown in

Figure (4.42) it can be seen that correlation coefficient R in April and September
were -0.5 and 0.28 respectively in which means that there is a moderate negative
linear correlation between AOL and maximum temperature in April and weak
positive correlation in September.
April
350
300
area of lake km2
250
200
150
17 19 21 23 25 27 29
maxi temp. oC
September
350
area of lake km2
300
250
200
150
35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42
maxi temp. oC
Figure (4.42): Scatter plot between area of lake and maximum temperature.
111
The results show that there is a strong negative linear correlation between
AOL and minimum temperature in April and a very weak negative correlation in
September. The correlation coefficient R in April and September were -0.61and
-0.18 respectively shown in Figure (4.43).
April
350
area of lake km2
300
250
200
150
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
mini temp. oC
September
350
area of lake km2
300
250
200
150
14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 17.5 18 18.5 19 19.5
mini temp. oC
Figure (4.43): Scatter plot between area of lake and minimum temperature.
Figure (4.44) shows the linear regression between AOL and the mean
temperature of the study area, it can be seen that correlation coefficient R in April
and September were -0.19 and -0.14 respectively in which means that there is a
very weak negative correlation between AOL and mean temperature in April and
September.
112
April
350
area of lake km2 300
250
200
150
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
mean temp. oC
September
350
area of lake km2
300
250
200
150
21 22 23 24 25 26 27
mean temp. oC
Figure (4.44): Scatter plot between an area of lake and mean temperature.
The correlation between AOL and snow cover are shown in Figures (4.45
and 4.46); it can be seen that correlation coefficient R in April and September
were 0.63 and -0.29 respectively in which means that there is a moderate positive
linear correlation between AOL and snow cover in April and weak negative
correlation in September.
April
400
area of lake km2
300
200
100
0
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18
snow cover
Figure (4.45): Scatter plot between area of lake and snow cover in April.
113
September
400
area of lake km2

300
200
100
0
0.00E+00 2.00E-06 4.00E-06 6.00E-06 8.00E-06 1.00E-05 1.20E-05
snow cover
Figure (4.46): Scatter plot between area of lake and snow cover in September.
While the results show that there is a moderate positive linear correlation
between AOL and snow depth in April and a weak negative correlation in
September. The correlation coefficient R in April and September were 0.6 and
-0.26 respectively shown in Figure (4.47).
April
400
area of lake km2
300
200
100
0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
snow depth mm
September
400
area of lake km2
300
200
100
0
0.0E+00 1.0E-04 2.0E-04 3.0E-04 4.0E-04 5.0E-04 6.0E-04 7.0E-04
snow depth mm
Figure (4.47): Scatter plot between an area of lake and snow depth.
114
Figure (4.48) shows the linear regression between AOL and snowmelt of
the study area, it can be seen that correlation coefficient R in April and September
were 0.88 and -0.16 respectively in which means that there is a very strong
positive linear correlation between AOL and snowmelt in April and a very weak
negative correlation in September.
April
400
area of lake km2
300
200
100
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12
snow melt mm
September
350
300
area of lake km2
250
200
150
0.00E+00 2.00E-05 4.00E-05 6.00E-05 8.00E-05 1.00E-04 1.20E-04 1.40E-04
snow melt mm
Figure (4.48): Scatter plot between an area of lake and snowmelt.
The correlation between AOL and precipitation is shown in Figure (4.49),

it can be seen that correlation coefficient R in April and September were 0.53 and
-0.48 respectively in which means that there is a moderate positive and negative
linear correlation between AOL and precipitation in April and September
respectively.
115
April
350
300
area of lake km2
250
200
150
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
September
350
area of lake km2
300
250
200
150
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Figure (4.49): Scatter plot between an area of lake and precipitation rate.
For all seven climatic variables above, the snowmelt has the highest
significance in statistical analysis represented by a high value of correlation
coefficient (R = 0.88) in April this means approximately 88% of the variation in
the AOL is interpreted by these independent climatological variables, then came
snow cover a correlation coefficient (R = 0.63), while mean temperature gave the
lowest significance in statistical analysis with a correlation coefficient (R = -0.19).
116
Table(4.9): Statistical analysis in April.
Max mini mean Snow Snow Prcip.

variables Snowmelt AOL
Temp. Temp. Temp. cover depth Rate
Max
1.00 0.85 0.50 -0.78 -0.68 -0.50 -0.79 -0.50
Temp.
mini
0.85 1.00 0.61 -0.65 -0.50 -0.52 -0.73 -0.61
Temp.
mean
0.50 0.61 1.00 -0.43 -0.19 -0.20 -0.44 -0.19
Temp.
Snow
-0.78 -0.65 -0.43 1.00 0.93 0.65 0.56 0.63
cover
Snow
-0.68 -0.50 -0.19 0.93 1.00 0.64 0.47 0.60
depth
Snow
-0.50 -0.52 -0.20 0.65 0.64 1.00 0.38 0.88
melt
Prcip.
-0.79 -0.73 -0.44 0.56 0.47 0.38 1.00 0.53
Rate
Area
-0.50 -0.61 -0.19 0.63 0.60 0.88 0.53 1.00
lake
Table(4.10): Statistical analysis in September.
Max mini mean Snow Snow Prcip.

variables Snowmelt AOL
Temp. Temp. Temp. cover depth Rate
Max
1.00 0.84 0.81 -0.48 -0.50 -0.16 -0.61 0.28
Temp.
mini
0.84 1.00 0.91 -0.45 -0.47 -0.24 -0.52 -0.18
Temp.
mean
0.81 0.91 1.00 -0.47 -0.47 -0.25 -0.43 -0.14
Temp.
Snow
-0.48 -0.45 -0.47 1.00 0.99 -0.25 0.72 -0.29
cover
Snow
-0.50 -0.47 -0.47 0.99 1.00 -0.25 0.72 -0.26
depth
Snow
-0.16 -0.24 -0.25 -0.25 -0.25 1.00 -0.08 -0.16
melt
Prcip.
-0.61 -0.52 -0.43 0.72 0.72 -0.08 1.00 -0.48
Rate
Area
0.28 -0.18 -0.14 -0.29 -0.26 -0.16 -0.48 1.00
lake
117
4.7.2 Multi Regression Between Area of Lake and Climate Variables

Multiple regression analysis between AOL and climatic variables from the
previous sections, we conclude that the AOL is correlated to all seven variables
considered, (maximum, minimum, mean) temperature, snow cover, snow depth,
snowmelt, and precipitation. For further analysis regarding the impact of each of
these variables, the multiple linear regression methods to generate the linear
regressions equations using monthly data have been done. As explained
previously in chapter 2, the regression in terms of b was used to generate the AOL
regression equation for data from the entire period in the study area, and the
formula is given in equation (2.19). The multiple regression analysis conferred a
good relationship between AOL and the seven variables 0.86 in April and a
moderate relationship of 0.64 in September.
The following Regression equations present the multiple regression results

for the monthly average data for seven climatic variables. The empirical equations
of AOL and variables with their constant values can be adopted.
The equation of April month can be given as:
AOL = 286.43-3.78 Max.T.-6.36 Min.T.+7.266 Mean T.+670.6 Snow cover -0.71 Snow depth
+960 Snow melt -0.537 Precip Rate.
While the equation of September was:
AOL= 98.51+18.78 Max.T. -31.64 Min.T.-0.74 Mean T.-16266636.24 Snow cover
+224798.58 Snow depth- 229273.68 Snow melt-1.95 Precip Rate.
118
Chapter Five Conclusions and Recommendations
Chapter Five: Conclusions and Recommendations
5.1 Conclusions
From the obtained results the following conclusions can be remembered:
1. The Mosul Lake watershed area was calculated to be about 30,806 km2.
2. The NDWI analysis indicates that the Mosul Dam lake area variated from
month to month and even from year to year. In April, the average surface area
of the lake was 265.4 km2, while during September was 252 km2. The variation
of 10 km2 between April and September is sufficient to influence the climate
and hydrological cycle in that region.
3. The NDWI analysis for the period 2000-2020 was studied to compare overall
changes in Mosul Dam Lake, the minimum surface area was founded in
September 8, 2018, about 180 km2 .while, its maximum area was about 327
km2 in April 13, 2002.
4. The lake was found at the highest class of maximum, minimum, and mean
temperatures.
5. The snow cover, snow depth, snowmelt, and precipitation rate indicate that the
lake was found at the lowest class.
6. The temporal variation of annual maximum, minimum, mean temperatures and

precipitation rate indicates positive trends, while negative trends in annual
snow cover, snow depth, snowmelt.
7. The the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's method indicate that the annual increase
of maximum, minimum, and mean temperature were 0.4oC, 1.06oC, 0.612 oC
respectively, while the annual decrease of snow cover, snow depth, and
snowmelt were -0.015mm,-8.858 mm, and -0.013mm respectively.
8. The annual Rate of Change in air temperature tends to rise during the period
2000-2020 reaching the highest value in minimum temperature12.28%, and
the lowest value in maximum temperature 1.57%.
119
9. The annual Rate of Change in snow tends to decrease during the period, the
snow cover was 16.003% snow depth was 23.75%, and snowmelt was 64.74%.
10.The Pearson's correlation coefficient between Area of Lake and temperature
show that the minimum temperature has more impact on the lake in April with
a correlation coefficient of 0.61 compared with maximum and mean values
0.19 and 0.5 respectively.
11.The Pearson's correlation coefficient between Area of Lake and Snowmelt
show that the Snowmelt has the highest significance in statistical analysis,
represented by a high value of correlation coefficient 0.88 in April, then came
snow cover with a correlation coefficient of 0.63, and snow depth was 0.6.
12.The Pearson's correlation coefficient show the precipitation rate has more
impact on the Area of Lake in April than in September with a correlation
coefficient of 0.53.
13.The multiple regression indicates that the climatic variables have a more
accurate impact on a lake in April than in September when the calculated is
0.86, while in September is 0.64.
120
5.2 Recommendations
1. Studying another climatological element for example potential
evaporation, winds, and runoff, so applying the used software to calculate
the spatial and temporal analysis for that element.
2. Studying the impacts of some phenomena like North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO)and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
3. Calculating the Tigris and Euphrates basin and assessing the climatic
impacts on the region.
4. Studying human interventions that cause variation in the lake area for a
long extent and comparing the results with the effect of climate change.
5. Measuring the lake temperature at a different point of the lake.
121
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131
‫الخالصة‬
‫يؤدي تغير المناخ إلى تغييرات في الدورة الهيدرولوجية حيث تشارك مكونات مختلفة من النظام المناخي ‪ ،‬بما في‬
‫ذلك الغالف الجوي والغالف المائي والغالف الجليدي وسطح األرض والمحيط الحيوي‪ .‬لذلك ‪ ،‬يؤثر تغير المناخ‬
‫على موارد المياه (الجريان السطحي ‪ ،‬والفيضانات والجفاف ‪ ،‬وذوبان الثلوج ‪ ،‬ونوعية المياه ‪ ،‬والمياه الجوفية)‬
‫التي تؤثر بشكل مباشر وغير مباشر على االحترار العالمي‪ ،‬وزيادة درجات الحرارة ‪ ،‬والتغيرات في أنماط هطول‬
‫األمطار‪.‬‬
‫الهدف من هذه الدراسة هو تقييم التغيرات المناخة على الموارد المائية ‪ ،‬كدراسة حالة بحيرة سد الموصل من خالل‬
‫الكشف عن التغيرات في مساحة سطح المياه )‪ (WSA‬وتأثير المتغيرات المناخية على حوض تغذية البحيرة ‪،‬من‬
‫خالل استخدام تقنيات االستشعارعن بعد )‪ )RS‬و نظم المعلومات الجغرافية )‪.)GIS‬‬
‫تتناول هذه الرسالة ثالث مراحل كل مرحلة مكملة لألخرى ‪ :‬أوال؛ حساب منطقة حوض تغذية بحيرة سد الموصل‬
‫باستخدام برنامج ‪ ArcMap GIS‬لمعالجة وتحليل نماذج االرتفاعات الرقمية ( )‪ )DEMs‬التي تم الحصول عليها‬
‫من القمر الصناعي من المتحسس (‪ )SRTM‬بواقع تسع صور دقيقة للفترات ‪ .2020-2000‬ثانيا؛ تتضمن هذه‬
‫المرحلة تحليل مؤشر المياه المختلفة (‪ )NDWI‬لحساب التغيرات في مساحة سطح الماء واكتشافها باستخدام سلسلة‬
‫من صور القمر الصناعي الندسات )‪ (5TM,7ETM+,8OLI‬بواقع أربعين صورة في أبريل وسبتمبر لفترة‬
‫الدراسة ‪ ،‬حيث شهدت البحيرة تغيرات واضحة من سنة إلى أخرى وحتى من موسم إلى آخر ‪ ،‬خاصة في أبريل‪.‬‬
‫حيث شهدت اكثر تغير في منطقة الدراسة في الجزء الشمالي الغربي من البحيرة ‪ ،‬تذبذبت قيم مساحة سطح الماء‬
‫على مدى ‪ 21‬سنة ‪ ،‬كما هو متوقع ‪ ،‬كانت أقصى مساحة للبحيرة ‪ 327‬كم ‪ 2‬في أبريل ‪ ، 2002‬بينما كانت القيمة‬
‫الدنيا كانت ‪ 180‬كم‪ 2‬في سبتمبر ‪ .2018‬ثالثًا ؛ تضمنت هذه المرحلة تأثيرات المتغيرات المناخية (درجة حرارة ‪،‬‬
‫الثلوج ‪ ،‬وهطول األمطار) على منطقة بحيرة (‪ )AOL‬وقد تم تحديد الخصائص المكانية والزمانية للمتغيرات‬
‫المناخية في منطقة الدراسة‪ .‬أشارت نتيجة التحليل المكاني إلى أن البحيرة تقع في أعلى فئة من درجات الحرارة ‪،‬‬
‫وأدنى فئة من الثلوج واألمطار‪ .‬أظهر التحليل الزمني أن درجة الحرارة وهطول األمطار لهما اتجاه إيجابي ‪ ،‬بينما‬
‫كان للثلوج اتجاه سلبي لجميع سنوات الدراسة‪.‬‬
‫تميل نتائج المعدل السنوي للتغير في درجات الحرارة إلى االرتفاع ‪ ،‬وكان أعلى معدل تغير في درجة الحرارة‬
‫الصغرى ‪ ، ٪12.28‬وأدنى معدل تغير كان لدرجة الحرارة القصوى ‪ .٪1.57‬أعلى معدل سنوي للتغير في الثلوج‬
‫كان في المتغير ذوبان الثلوج ‪ ، ٪64.74-‬وأقل معدل تغير للغطاء الثلجي كان ‪.٪16.003-‬‬
‫أظهرت نتائج معامل ارتباط بيرسون بين المتغيرات المناخية و ‪ AOL‬أن درجة الحرارة الدنيا لها تأثير أكبر‬
‫على البحيرة في أبريل (‪ )R = -0.16‬مقارنة بدرجات الحرارة القصوى والمتوسطة (‪ 0.19-‬و ‪ )0.5-‬على التوالي‪.‬‬
‫في حين أشارت النتائج بين الثلوج و ‪ AOL‬إلى أن ذوبان الثلوج له أعلى داللة في التحليل اإلحصائي (‪ )0.88‬في‬
‫أخيرا ‪ ،‬أشار االنحدار المتعدد إلى أن‬
‫ً‬ ‫أبريل ‪ ،‬بينما كان الغطاء الثلجي وعمق الثلوج (‪ 0.63‬و ‪ )0.6‬على التوالي‪.‬‬
‫المتغيرات المناخية المستخدمة في هذه الدراسة لها تأثير أكثر دقة على بحيرة في أبريل (‪ )0.86‬مما كانت عليه في‬
‫سبتمبر (‪.)0.64‬‬
‫جهورية العراق‬
‫وزارة التعليم العالي والبحث العلمي‬
‫الجامعة المستنصرية‬
‫كلية العلوم‬
‫تقييم آثارتغيرالمناخ على بحيرة سد الموصل باستخدام‬

‫بيانات االقمار الصناعية‬
‫رسالة مقدمة‬
‫إلى كلية العلوم ‪-‬الجامعة المستنصرية‬
‫وهي جزء من متطلبات نيل درجة‬
‫ماجستيرعلوم في علوم الجو‬
‫من قبل‬
‫ميرفت اياد عبد الخالق‬
‫بكالوريوس علوم فيزياء تطبيقية ‪2003‬‬
‫بإشراف‬
‫أ‪.‬د‪.‬ياسين كاظم التميمي‬
‫آيار ‪ 2021‬م‬ ‫شوال ‪1442‬هـ‬
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An Assessment the Impacts of Climate Change on Mosul Dam Lake Using

Thesis · May 2021

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An Assessment the Impacts of Climate Change

A Thesis Submitted to the College of Science, Mustansiriyah

May 2021A.D. Shawal 1442 A.H.

Climate change leads to changes in the hydrological cycle for different

The results of a Pearson correlation coefficient between climatic variables

Chapter One: General Overview

Chapter One: General Overview

1.2 The Changes in Climate System

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states; definition of

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) qualifies this

- Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates would cause further

- Even if radiative forcing (e.g., GHG driven longwave radiation) were to be

The Greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon that contributes to the

Mountains and high-land regions are sensitive to climate change. Also,

CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere is the activities induced by combusting of

1.3 Factors Affecting Climate Elements

The climate changes depending on the variations in the climatological

1.4 Impacts Climate Change on lakes

Impacts of climate change on lakes are important because lakes play a

On average [30] observed that the lakes displayed an increase in water

In non-regulated lakes, the water level is a good indicator of climate change

The Potential of Hydrogen (PH) ionic strength, ionic composition, and

absorption, and lake metabolism, as well as changes observed in the catchment

In addition to changes in mean ambient temperature, major changes in

1.5 Description of the Problem

Reservoir sedimentation and consequent loss of storage capacity affect

Figure (1.1): Ilisu and Cizre Dams [41].

1.6 Previous Studies

El-Asmar et al (2013) in this paper a set of six satellite images acquired

Sarp et al (2017) in this study spatiotemporal changes in Lake Burdur in

Xia et al (2019) this paper present an understanding of the changes in water

Al-Madhhachi et al (2020) this paper presents an assessment of the

1.7 Aim of Thesis

This work is providing accurate scientific methods in the analysis of spatial

1.8 Thesis Organize

Chapter Two: Theoretical Background

2.2 Remote Sensing

RS provides a capture of the earth's surface in the different wavelength

remotely sensed image is the wavelength zone represented by the climate

The energy measured in the microwave region is the reflected radiation

Figure (2.1): Type sensors of remote sensing [59].

The output of the RS system is usually an image representing the scene

2.3 Landsat Satellite Series

The characteristics of the satellite image include the accuracy of spatial

On March 1, 1984, NASA launched Landsat 5, which was designed and

 A panchromatic band with 15m spatial resolution.

Landsat 7ETM+ images consist of eight spectral bands with a spatial

Landsat 8 launched on February 11, 2013, its payload consists of two

The resolution for band 8 (panchromatic) is 15 meters. Thermal bands 10

2.4 Geographic Information Systems

Figure (2.3): The geographic information system [68].

2.5 Components of GIS

Figure (2.4): Components of GIS [69].

Figure (2.5): GIS data raster-vector data model [72].

2.6 Digital Elevation Model

Digital Elevation Model (DEM) is a digital representation of ground surface

DEM is generically described as a spatially geo-referenced data set that is

2.7 Hydrological Analysis