SIR SYED CASE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,

ISLAMABAD

IS V-a-R STILL A PROLIFIC TOOL FOR EVALUATING

SHOCKS?

By

Muhammad Arslan (Reg# Number)

Muhammad Arslan (Reg# Number)

A Project submitted in partial fulfillment for the degree of Bachelors in

Business Administration

in the

Faculty of Business and Engineering Management

Department of Management of Sciences

2022
Your Dedication Goes Here

i
 ATTESTATION OF AUTHORSHIP

This Research report is composed by

1. Muhammad Arslan Registration No.

2. Muhammad Arslan Registration No.

We therefore proudly announce that our Final Thesis entitled IS V-a-R STILL A
PROLIFIC TOOL FOR EVALUATING SHOCKS? FILTERED HISTORICAL
SIMULATION APPROACH THROUGH NON-PARAMETRIC
QUANTITATIVE MODELS is our own
work and that, to the best of our insight and conviction, it contains no material
beforehand distributed or composed by someone else. This report is not submitted as
of now and might not be submitted in future for getting a degree from same or another
University or Institution. On the off chance that it is discovered to be
replicated/copied at later phase of any understudy selected in the same or some other
college, We might be obligated to face lawful activity before Disciplinary Committee
according to SS-CASE-IT principles and regulations, and we comprehend that on the
off chance that we are discovered liable, our degree will be wiped out.

Muhammad Arslan

_________________

Muhammad Arslan

_________________

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 CERTIFICATION

We hereby undertake that the presented piece of research work is an original one and no
part of this thesis falls or exceeds the plagiarism as per university criteria. If found
otherwise, at any stage, we will be responsible for the consequences.
Name: Muhammad Arslan

Name: Muhammad Arslan

Certified that the contents and form of thesis entitled “IS V-a-R STILL A PROLIFIC
TOOL FOR EVALUATING SHOCKS? FILTERED HISTORICAL SIMULATION
APPROACH THROUGH NON-PARAMETRIC QUANTITATIVE MODELS” submitted
by:

1. Mr. Muhammad Arslan

2. Mr. Muhammad Arslan

Have been found satisfactory for the requirement of the degree.

Supervisor: ______________________
(Supervisor Name)
Member: ______________________
(Name Member)
Member: ______________________
(Name Member)
Member: ______________________
(Name Member)

Date of Defense: __ /__ / _____ HOD: ______________________

(Signature)

iii
 Acknowledgement

Your Acknowledgement Goes Here

Sincerely,

Muhammad Arslan Muhammad Arslan

iv
Abstracts

Your Abstract Goes Here

Keywords:

v
Table of Contents
ATTESTATION OF AUTHORSHIP.................................................................................................ii
CERTIFICATION.............................................................................................................................iii
Acknowledgement.............................................................................................................................iv
Abstracts..............................................................................................................................................v
List of figures...................................................................................................................................viii
List of Tables.....................................................................................................................................ix
Chapter 1: Introduction.......................................................................................................................2
1.1 Background (pages 2-3)........................................................................................................2
1.2 Problem Identification/ Broad Problem Area/Need of the Study (2 pages).........................2
1.3 Problem Statement................................................................................................................2
1.4 Research Question/s..............................................................................................................2
1.5 Objective/s of the Study........................................................................................................2
1.6 Significance of the Study (1.5 -2 pages)...............................................................................2
Chapter 2: Literature Review..............................................................................................................4
2.1 Theoretical Framework.........................................................................................................4
2.2 Hypotheses Statements.........................................................................................................4
Chapter 3: Research Methodology......................................................................................................5
3.1 Research Design....................................................................................................................5
3.2 Population of the Study.........................................................................................................5
3.3 Sampling Techniques............................................................................................................5
3.4 Sample Size...........................................................................................................................5
3.5 Instrument and Measures/ Research Tools (very important part of this chapter).................5
3.5.1 Pilot Testing...................................................................................................................5
3.6 Procedure/ data collection.....................................................................................................5
3.7 Data Analysis/Techniques.....................................................................................................5
Chapter 4: Results and Discussion......................................................................................................7
4.1 Result....................................................................................................................................7
4.2 Discussion.............................................................................................................................7

vi
Chapter 5: Conclusion (3-5 pages)......................................................................................................8
5.1 Recommendations/ policies..................................................................................................8
5.2 Practical Implications............................................................................................................8
5.3 Limitations............................................................................................................................8
5.4 Future Directions...................................................................................................................8
References...........................................................................................................................................9

vii
List of figures

viii
List of Tables

ix
1
Chapter 1: Introduction

General Formatting (Page: A4; Font Size: 12-Time New Roman; Line spacing:
1.5, Text: Justified; Page Margin: Left-1.5, Right-1, Top-1, Bottom-1; Heading:
Bold & 14-Time New Roman, Sub-headings 12-Time New Roman)

1.1 Background (pages 2-3)

Introduction of the study along its origin, history, and background. Introduce the topic with the
support of references in ascending order. Also, write the introduction of company, organization,
sector, or industry, where you are going to conduct research. However, your focus should be on
the topic. You may also describe each variable in this part.

1.2 Problem Identification/ Broad Problem Area/Need of the Study (2 pages)

You have to identify the problem, how the actual problem is existing theoretically as well as
practically. I mean build a story by three different ways 1) Find the gap from literature with
proper references (future directions/ limitations from recent papers specially from post 2010
papers); 2) build the local scenario of your target sector or companies by comparing the
theory/literature and practice/actual situation and 3) compare the current situation of your
particular sector or company with developed/underdeveloped/emerging economies and write
situation of Pakistan. This is the very important part of your study.

1.3 Problem Statement

Write the actual problem/crux in one or two sentence/s drive it from the problem identification.

1.4 Research Question/s

Derive from problem statement, should start from how, why, where, what, to what extent, to
whom, etc.

1.5 Objective/s of the Study

Write the objective/s of your study which start from “to” and the mostly useable words are (To
explore, to determine, to find out, to measure, to highlight, to examine, to judge). There should be
developmental aspect.

1.6 Significance of the Study (1.5 -2 pages)

Discuss the importance/worth/rationale of the study, what kind of benefit and who will be the
beneficiary/ies of this work, what will be the practical implications, how this study will contribute
in your particular area or sector? What kind of policy will be given by this study? How the
2
policies will be implemented.

3
Chapter 2: Literature Review
(Write this chapter in past tense, use second form)
In this part explain your study variables by the support of citations/references, I mean bombard
this part with references. Literature review should be written as i.e. the significant relationship
was found among the dependent and independent variables (Aurther, 2009: 23 page); or Sing
(2010) conducted a research on…………. page numbers if possible. Also put you voice among
the different scholars ideas/findings (I mean commentary).
The appropriate words could be (Elaborated, declared, discussed, highlighted, examined,
explored, agued, found, focused on, determined, revealed, investigated, described, showed, used,
predicted, studied, developed, follow the approach used by, documented, favored this, noticed
that, studied the determinants, Earlier researches relied on, suggested, reinforced etc.)

At the end of the literature review before theoretical framework you have to write the summery of
the literature how many variables are used and what relationship is found in the literature?

2.1 Theoretical Framework

Draw a figure which shows the independent/s mediating/moderating/ intervening and dependent
variables relationship and put the sign (+ or -) on arrows on the bases of literature review.
OR
Research Model (only for secondary data)
Draw an equation and explain the abbreviation/s or alphabetic/s

2.2 Hypotheses Statements

Draw the hypothesis/es on the bases of literature review. What relationship was found in previous
researches and yours’ study assumptions/hypotheses will be in line of previous studies.

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Chapter 3: Research Methodology
(Write this chapter in future tense, almost use will/shall)
Methodology of primary Data collection

3.1 Research Design

Explain what is research design? and what will be the design of yours’ study? Nature of
investigation.

3.2 Population of the Study

Explain what is population? and what will be the population of yours’ study?

3.3 Sampling Techniques

Explain the techniques of sampling and what will be sampling technique of yours’ study?

3.4 Sample Size

What is sample? And what will be sample size of yours’ study?

3.5 Instrument and Measures/ Research Tools (very important part of this chapter)
Write about the research instrument, how many variables are being used? How many are
independents and dependent? Write their names. Is scale/instrument/questionnaire self developed,
adopted, or adapted from previous studies? If adopted/adapted from past studies give their
references. Also, write how many items/statements/questions are used to measure the each
variable. Which software will be used for analysis? Discuss which tool will be used for data
analysis.
3.5.1 Pilot Testing
3.6 Procedure/ data collection
Explain what will be the procedure of data collection

3.7 Data Analysis/Techniques

What will be the most appropriate tests for yours’ study and write the assumptions/applications of
those tests?
Methodology of Secondary Data collection
3.1 Research Design
3.2 Methodological Literature
Write the different techniques of data analysis which have been used in previous studies i.e. Smith
(2011) conducted research/analyzed on………………. And used/apply the technique……….
towards data analysis ……………….
3.3 Data

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From where the data of each variable was taken and what was the time span?
3.4 Statistics
Write about the variables, their formulas/equations etc. dependent, and independent variables
3.5 Techniques
What will be the most appropriate technique for data analysis and introduction of that technique?
Background of those technique or assumptions etc.

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Chapter 4: Results and Discussion

4.1 Result
4.2 Discussion
Support your results with previous studies. How many studies results/findings are in line
findings/results of your study?

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Chapter 5: Conclusion (3-5 pages)

5.1 Recommendations/ policies

5.2 Practical Implications
5.3 Limitations
5.4 Future Directions

8
References
(Should as per APA Style )

Arslan, M., Ahmed, W. S., & Akhter, M. (2020). Volatility, Global Proxy Index, VAR: Empirical Study on
Pakistan And China Stock Exchanges. International Journal of Advances in Data and Information
Systems, 1(2), 103-115.