Democratization

and Democratic
Breakdown, 1828-
1995

FA L L 2 0 2 2
The Causes of
Democracy
Samuel P. Huntington’s The Third Wave:
Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century
What happened in the late 20th century democratization?

Why democratizations took place when they did?

Under what process democratization occurred?

What were the characteristics of these transition processes?

How long are the new democracies likely to last?

Is democratization a global-historical phenomenon?

How does Huntington define
democracy?
Three approaches:

Sources of authority for government

Purposes served by the government

Procedures for constituting government

A twentieth century political system
according to Huntington
“democratic to the extent that its most powerful collective decision-makers are selected through fair,
honest, and periodic lections in which candidates freely compete for votes and in which virtually all the
adult population is eligible to vote.” (p.6).

Purpose of the government is excluded in this definition.

Democratization waves
“ a group of transitions from non-democratic regimes that occur within a specific period of time that
significantly outnumber transitions in the opposite direction during that period of time.” (p. 15).
1828–1926 1970s-1995
The first wave (prewar) The third wave (leading to post
Cold War) The
transition
to
The second wave (postwar) democracy
1943-1962s
 Revolutions

The First Wave

Expansion of Franchise

Receded by military coups and

fascism in 1930s
 Post-WWII Europe

The Second
Wave Independence movements

Receded by military coups,

dictatorship, and Cold War politics in
the 1960s
 Democratization in Europe (fall of
Berlin Wall)

The Third Wave Democratization in Latin America and

Asia

Former Soviet Union nations

(Lithuania, Belarus, Armenia) declare
independence.
Reverse waves
When some countries that had previously made the transition to democracy reverted to non-democratic
rule.
Crucial factors (independent variables) caused democratization in 1970’s and 1980s:
predisposing or causal?

1. Deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian regime (in the context of globalization of dem. values);

2. Unprecedented economic growth of the 1960s followed by crises in the 1970s;

3. Religious changes, particularly in an antiestablishment direction in the Roman Catholic Church;

4. New policies if external actors' subversive authoritarianism (e.g., democratic shifts associated with
Gorbachev’s leadership in the Soviet Union);

5. Demonstration of snowballing effects of democratization (in the context of post-1960s media and
communication technology).
The First Wave
English Revolution: The Fundamental Orders of Connecticut adopted by the citizens of Hartford on Jan 14,
1638, were the first written constitution of modern democracy. (Puritans and Anglican reformation).

By 1660 the government in England and America tended to be more closed and less representative.

By 1750 no democratic institution at the national level existed in the Western world.

By 1900 democratic institutions existed in many countries.

The first reverse wave
World War I and the rise of authoritarianism:

1922 Mussolini’s disposal of Italy’s democracy; Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, were overthrown by
military coups; Yugoslavia and Bulgaria reverted to dictatorship; Hitler rule in 1933 ended democratic
development in Germany, Austria, and Czech by 1938; Greek unsettled democracy due to the National
Schism in 1915 ended by 1936; Portugal succumbing to military coup in 1926 lading to the long Salazar
dictatorship; military takeover in Brazil and Argentina in 1930; Uruguay reverted to authoritarianism in
1933; Spain witnessed a military coup in 1936 which led to civil war and the end of the Spanish republic in
1939; Japan’s new democracy of 1920s was supplanted by military rule in 1930s.
The Second Wave
Post-World War II: independence movements and the Allied promotion of democracy: West Germany;
Italy; Austria; Japan; Korea; Turkey; Greece; Israel; India; Sri Lanka; Indonesia; Malaysia; Philippines;
Nigeria; Argentina; Colombia; Peru; and Venezuela (Soviet pressure eroded incipient democracy in
Czechoslovakia and Hungary).
The second reverse wave
Pot-World War II and the shift toward authoritarianism and military rule:

Peru’s shift to authoritarianism in 1962 by a military intervention in elections followed by a civilian rule and
a military coup in 1964; a military coup in Brazil in 1964; a military coup in Bolivia in 1964; a military coup
in Argentina in 1968; a military coup in Ecuador in 1972; a military coup in Uruguay in 1973; a military coup
in Chile in 1973; martial law imposed in Pakistan in 1985; martial law instituted in the Philippines in 1972;
military coup in Korea in 1961; end of guided democracy in Indonesia in 1965; suspension of democratic
rule in India and the declare of emergency rule in 1975; Taiwan's KMT regime suppression of dissenters in
1960s; Greece royal coup in 1965 and military coup in 1967; military coups in Turkey in 1960,1971 and
1980; Nigeria reverted to military rule in 1966.

The emergence of bureaucratic authoritarianism: (e.g., Brazil, Argentina, Chile, and Uruguay).
The Third Wave
Post-Cold War Democratic transitions:

The Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) was abandoned in 1989; China’s movement to
democracy in 1989; democratic movements in mid 1070s in southern Europe including Greece and Spain;
in Latin America including Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Honduras, Guatemala, and Salvador in mid to late 1970s
and 1980s; in India in 1977; Pakistan in 1988; in Korea in 1987.

According to the Freedom House, in 1973 32% of the world’s population lived in free countries, and in
1990 39% of the world’s population lived in free countries. (two-step forward, one-step backward)
Possible causes of democratization
Single cause: independent variables could be a major war, the rise of new superpower, or some major change in
the international distribution of power. The dependent variable is the democratization. A is the independent
variable (allied victory in WWII) and x is the dependent variable (development in each country).

Parallel development: When x is caused by similar development in the same independent variables (a1, a2, etc.)
manifesting themselves simultaneously in all the observed countries. E.g., GNP or literacy levels.

Snowballing: when an important cause for x in one country may be the occurrence of x in another country
(triggering comparable event in another country).

Prevailing nostrum: When immediate cause of vent x may differ significantly but could still promote a common
response if the elites in the different countries shar a common belief in the efficacy of that response. E.g.,
individual causes of political change act on a common set of beliefs, z, to produce similar x responses.
What explains democratization?
High level of economic wealth

Equal distribution of wealth/income

A market economy

Th absence of feudalism in the society

A strong middle class

High level of literacy and education

Protestantism

Low level of civil violence

Low level of polarization and extremism

Pluralism

Communal heterogeneity/homogeneity

Elite desire to emulate democratic nations

Arguments/Conclusions
No single factor is sufficient to explain democratization

No single factor is necessary to explain democratization

Democratization in each country is the result of combination of of causes

The combination of causes producing democracy varies from country to country

The combination of causes responsible for one wave of democratization different from that responsible for
other waves.
Explaining the Third Wave
Cyclical pattern: alternating back and forth between democratic and authoritarian systems (e.g., Argentina, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia, and
Ecuador, Turkey, and Nigeria).

Second-try pattern: an authoritarian system shifts to a democratic one. Either the democratic one fails because the country lacks the
social base for democracy, or the leadership pursue extremist policies which may lead to war or depression and eventually undermines
the regime, then authoritarian reverse occurs then democratic (e.g., Germany, Italy, Austria, Japan, Venezuela, Colombia –established
democracies in the second wave after suffering reversal in their earlier efforts; Spain Portugal, Greece, Korea, Czechoslovakia, and
Poland—fit in this second-try pattern if their third wave democratic regime stabilize.

Interrupted democracy: after developing relatively sustained democracies, instability occurs due to polarization, or instability, etc., (e.g.,
in India and the Philippines, in 1970s democratically elected leaders suspended democracy; in Uruguay elected leaders cooperated with
the military, and in Chile by military leaders overthrowing an elected regime).

Direct transition: from stable authoritarian system to a stable democratic system, either through gradual evolution or abrupt replacement
(e.g., Romania, Bulgaria, Taiwan, Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua).

Decolonization pattern: a democratic country imposes democracy on its colonies.

Explaining the Third Wave
Why did some thirty countries with authoritarian system but not about one hundred other authoritarian
countries shift to democratic political system?

Why did regime changes in these countries occur in the 1970s and 1980s and not at some other time?

Does the nature of authoritarian system matter?

Regimes democratized in the third wave varied: One-party system, military regimes, personal dictatorships,
and racial oligarchy in South Africa. Within each category of regime type, some countries did not
democratize during the 15 years after 1974: China and Vietnam (one-party system); Burma and Indonesia
(military regimes); Iraq and Cuba (Personal dictatorship).
The Social Requisites of Democracy
National wealth

A large degree of industrialization,

High levels of education

“the more well-to-do a nation, the greater the chances that it will sustain democracy.”

The “functional interdependence” of these factors create modernization eventually leads to democracy.

Daniel Lerner’s step-by-step path to democracy: wealth leads to education (associated with literacy and
media growth, which mutually fuel one another), which leads to technology and industrial development.