Arlyn Deslie Guevarra

AB in Political Science - PSC31

Political Economy

Jumel Estrañero

De La Salle University-Dasmariñas

TITLE: SRI LANKA'S INEVITABLE DEMISE: COULD THIS BE THE HARBINGER

OF SRI LANKA'S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPLOSION?

I. INTRODUCTION

I.I GEOGRAPHY AND POPULATION

Source: Peter Hermes Furian (Adobe Stock)

The Sri Lanka is the shortened name for the Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka, whereas its full title
is Shri Lanka Prajatantrika Samajavadi Janarajaya and its Tamil term is Ilankai. Sri Lanka is
located in the Indian Ocean between the Laccadive Sea and the Bay of Bengal, around 19 miles
(30 kilometers) southern coast of India. The Sri Lanka is approximately 255 miles (415 kilometers)
long from north to south and 135 miles (220 kilometer) wide from east to west, resembling a
teardrop. As reported by the World Bank Organization in 2021, the Sri Lanka's total population is
22,146,000. Furthermore, Sri Jayewardenepura Kotte, a satellite city of Sri Lanka's primary city,
Colombo, operates as its capital. Sri Lankans are identified as Sinhalese or Cingalese, and the
languages they employ include Sinhala (their official and native language), Tamil (also their
national language), and English (their second language).

Figure 1

Population in Sri Lanka

I.II HISTORY OF SRI LANKA

Buddhism was introduced to Sri Lanka by an expedition dispatched from Eastern India during the
time of the Mauryan emperor Ashoka, around 273 and 232 BCE. Mahendra, the son of Emperor
Ashoka, headed the expedition, which intended to reach Mihintale hill from Anuradhapura.
During the mission, Mahendra met Sinhalese King Devanmpiya Tissa, to whom he espoused
Buddhism. King Tissa thereafter brought Buddhism to Mahamegha's city park, where Mahendra
gave his first sermon to members of the royal family and the local population. Numerous
individuals embraced the new faith, establishing Mahavira the most significant Buddhist center in
Sri Lanka. In addition, as Buddhism progressed, it enabled the people acquire unity and awareness
of political and economic power, bringing in the expansion of the Anuradhapura kingdom's
political control over the majority of Sri Lanka.
Unfortunately, the invasion of Pandyan from southern India in 432 BCE dissolved the authority of
the Lambakanna Dynasty, which had flourished for roughly four centuries and was especially
concerned with the establishment of irrigation. Eventually, Dhatusena, who reigned from 459 to
477 BCE, was able to reestablish Sinhalese power with the Moriya Kings and overthrow the
Pandyas. Kashyapa I, the son of Dhatusena and ruler from 477 to 495 BCE, relocated the capital
from Anuradhapura to Sigiriya, but after his dethronement, the capital returned to Anuradhapura.

Vijayabahu I fought against the Cola invaders in the 11th century A.D. and established his capital
at Polonnaruwa, which was easier to defend against incursions from southern India. The capital
of Polonnaruwa thrived for 150 years until Nissankamalla's death in 1196, when the Polonnaruwa
kingdom was crippled by a series of incompetent kings. As a consequence of the demise of the
Polonnaruwa kingdom, Sinhalese subjugated to non-Sinhala forces such as the Kalingas and
Pandyas of southern India. This period lasted until 1255 and was marked by a disregard for
traditional authority and religion.

Arya Chakaravartis, a south Indian dynasty, gained possession in the north when Sinhalese
political authority shifted to the southwest. In the 14th century, the dynasty established a Tamil
kingdom with its seat at Nallur in the Jaffna Peninsula. Soon afterwards, the kingdom of Jaffna
advanced to the south, commencing a history of warfare with the Sinhalese through Rajarata.

Following the division of kingdoms from north to south, which resulted in foreign invasions as the
island's agricultural supply deteriorated, trade had become a major source of state income, with
spices being the most significant export. The Portuguese arrived in 1505 with the intention of
trading spices, but instead returned and established a commercial concessions fort at Colombo. As
a byproduct of their prolonged trade with the Portuguese, the Portuguese establish a great deal of
interest and influence on the island, including the cultivation of a thriving Catholicism. Until 1656,
the Portuguese were in control.

After the Portuguese occupation, the Dutch established the Dutch East India Company, or
Vereenigde Oost-indische Compagnie, in Sri Lanka (VOC). It is a trading company that was
founded in 1602 to safeguard the interests of Dutch commerce in the Indian Ocean. After first
dominating only the coastal areas, the Dutch progressively expanded inland, claiming large
territory in southern, southwestern, and western Sri Lanka. They proceeded to the east coast in
1665, acquiring control of the majority of the cinnamon-growing areas as well as the island's
departure and entrance gateways. From about 1656 until 1796, the Dutch were overtaken by
British.

The takeover of British East India Company, known as Ceylon, transpired during the French
Revolution from 1792 to 1802. As the Netherlands fell under French power, the British relocated
to Sri Lanka, and the Dutch ceded the island to them in 1796. Through the Treaty of Amiens with
France, British dominion over maritime Ceylon was established. Ceylon became a crown colony.
In 1815, the kingdom of Kandy was ceded to the British, enabling them to gain control of the
whole island. This newly independent nation retained the name Ceylon until 1972, when the new
constitution renamed it Sri Lanka while maintaining its connection to the British Commonwealth.

In 1983, the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam (LTTE) in North-
East engaged in battle. Eventually, after two decades, the government and separatist movement
reached a cease-fire agreement, compelling the separatist organization to abandon its objective of
establishing an independent state and accept the terms of the accord. In 2008, however, owing to
the persistent violations of the ceasefire agreement by the separatist group, the government decided
to cancel the deal. In order to recover from the Tamil Tiger Terrorism, the government conducted
a humanitarian operation in the North and East, which was accomplished in May 2009.

I.III GOVERNMENT STRUCTURE AND SYSTEM

On August 16, 1978, Sri Lanka declared itself to be a Democratic Republic and a Unitary State. It
is governed under a semi-presidential system that incorporates features of the presidential and
parliamentary systems. The government of Sri Lanka is divided into three branches: the Executive
Branch, the Legislative Branch, and the Judicial Branch.

The President is the chief of state and the head of the government in the Executive branch, and
they are elected through majority popular vote for a 5-year term, and may serve of two terms with
no term limit. The cabinet is also directed by the president, who appoints ministers from among
the elected parliamentary members. There are 12 key ministers in the executive branch, namely:

1. Agriculture; Wildlife and forest resources: Mahinda Amaraweera (SLFP)

2. Education: Susil Premajayantha (SLFP)
 3. Fisheries: Douglas Devanada (EPDP)
4. Foreign affairs: GL Peiris (SLPP)
5. Health; Water supply: Keheliya Rambukwella (SLPP)
6. Industries; Plantation industries: Ramash Pathirana (SLPP)
7. Irrigation; Sports and youth affairs: Roshan Ranasinghe (SLFP)
8. Justice; Prison affairs and constitutional reforms: Wijayedasa Rajapaksa (SLPP)
9. Power and energy: Kanchana Wijesekera (SLFP)
10. Public services; Home affairs; Provincial councils & local government: Dinesh
Gunawardena (MEP)
11. Tourism & lands: Harin Fernando (nonaffiliated)
12. Transport & highways; Mass media: Bandula Gunawardena (SLFP)

The Legislative branch of Sri Lanka's parliament consists of a unicameral 225-member legislature,
with 196 members directly elected in multi-seat constituencies by proportional representation vote
using a preferential method in which voters’ rate three candidates in preference order and 29 seats
allocated to other political parties and groups correspondingly to their share of the national vote.
The members serve for a term of five years. Their responsibility is to retain the power to make all
laws. After four and a half years, however, the president has the authority to convene, postpone,
or terminate a legislative session and dissolve parliament.

Sri Lanka's Judiciary comprises the Supreme Court, which is acknowledged as the highest and
ultimate superior court of record. The Supreme Court of the Republic is consisting of a chief justice
and 10 justices. The president appoints the chief justice, and with the assistance of the chief justice,
the president chooses the other 10 justices. Whereas, the subordinate courts consisted of the Court
of appeal, the High Court, the Magistrate's Courts, the Municipal Courts, and the Primary Courts.
Each judge of a subordinate court is likewise appointed by the president. Their legal system is a
combination of Roman-Dutch civil law, English common law, and Jaffna Tamil Customary Law.
Sri Lanka has nine major political groups or parties, including:

1. Eelam People's Democratic Party or EPDP

2. Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna or JVP
3. Jathika Hela Urumaya or JHU
 4. Sri Lanka Freedom Party or SLFP
5. Sri Lanka Muslim Congress or SLMC
6. Tamil National Alliance or TNA
7. United National Front for Good Governance or EYJP
8. United National Party or UNP
9. United People's Freedom Alliance or UPFA

I.IV ECONOMIC STATUS OF SRI LANKA

The Sri Lanka's current currency is the Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR). According to 2021 data, the
country has a Gross National Income of 88,979 million dollars (see Figure 2), placing 70th out
of 196 countries.

Figure 2

Gross National Income for Sri Lanka

The Gross National Income of Sri Lanka improved by 3.3% in 2021, compared to a decrease of
3.5% the previous year (see Figure 3).
 Figure 3

Evolution: Annual GDP Sri Lanka

Consequently, Sri Lanka's GDP per capita in 2021 was 4,016 dollars, which was 122 dollars less
than in 2020, when Sri Lanka's GDP per capita was 3,892 dollars (see Figure 4).

Figure 4

Evolution: GDP per capita in Sri Lanka

However, Sri Lanka's national debt reached 91,719 million dollars in 2021, an increase of 10,044
million dollars from the previous year. This finding implies that Sri Lanka's debt reached 103.08%
of GDP in 2021, a 7.38 percentage point increase from 2020. Since 2011, when it peaked at 47,020
million dollars and 69.43% of its gross domestic product, Sri Lanka's debts has soared. In addition,
Sri Lanka's per capita debt in 2021 was 4,140 dollars. Sri Lanka ranked 165th out of 190 countries
when it comes of debt to GDP and 108th in terms of debt per capita, demonstrating that its standing
in the rest of the world has worsened. (see Figure 5 and 6).

Figure 5

Sri Lanka: Evolution of debt

 Figure 6

Sri Lanka: Evolution of debt as a percentage of GDP

In terms of the Human Development Index (HDI), Sri Lanka improved its standing to 73rd out of
190 nations in 2020-2021, gaining 0.782 points from the United Nations Development Program
(UNDP). Sri Lanka's ranking has risen by two places since 2020, bringing it in the High
Development category. (see Figure 7)

Figure 7

Sri Lanka: Human Development

I.V CRISIS OF THE COUNTRY AND ITS CAUSES

The political and economic future of Sri Lanka is questionable as the country is facing its worst
difficulties. Since Sri Lanka's independence in 1948, various external shocks and the government's
inability to seek International Monetary Fund (IMF) assist sooner have worsened decades of
neglect. External imbalances were generated by a restrictive trade system, a poor investment
environment, periods of lax monetary policy, and a controlled exchange rate. Now that their
economic condition is worsening, triggering additional factors that will contribute to Sri Lanka's
downfall, such as budget and current account deficits, hyperinflation, a devalued currency, and a
vast national debt that cannot be paid.

Furthermore, the 2019 Easter bombing and the Covid-19 pandemic have ravaged Sri Lanka's
primary source of foreign income. In addition to the country's financial downturn, people are
suffering power outages and shortages of basic needs like as gasoline, cooking oil, medications,
food, and so on, triggering massive protests. In response, the administration utilized heavy-handed
tactics, imposing states of emergency and curfews, commanding police and the military to
incarcerate civilians, oftentimes while beating up protestors, and blocking the use of social media.

However, in consequence to the people's persistent objections, the current President of Sri Lanka,
Gotabaya Rajapaksa, temporarily escaped the country and went to the Maldives, promising to
resign, but an official resignation has not been received. People also swarmed the office of Prime
Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who is also the acting President, demanding that he resign as
well. As a consequence of these events, Sri Lanka is currently under a state of emergency.

II. BODY

II.I INCOMPETENT GOVERNMENT

Due to the inept government that has been in place from the beginning of the pandemic, Sri Lanka
was going through an economic crisis. Relating to the corruption of Sri Lanka's president, prime
minister, a member of the Rajapaksa family ruling elite. The government has mismanaged the
nation's financial, tax, and other economic policies in an extremely reckless and incompetent
manner. There are numerous indications of the severe catastrophe, such as hospital drug shortages
and businesses that are about to close.
II.II SOVEREIGN DEBTS

Worldwide, there has been a sharp rise in national debt levels as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic,
with recorded instances of lowering of sovereign debt ratings and difficulty in repaying debts
(referred to as "debt distress") disproportionately occurring in low- and middle-income nations.
The situation for the nation was dire. On the one hand, the pandemic's effects on Sri Lanka's
tourism sector resulted in a large loss of foreign money inflows. However, Sri Lanka was unable
to borrow from ISBs to close the gap. Foreign currency inflows thus sharply decreased while
currency outflows remained unchanged. Due to the country's restricted borrowing alternatives, the
foreign currency imbalance significantly increased.

II.III DEVALUED CURRENCY

It is anticipated that devaluing the rupee will encourage remittances while reducing imports. If
done properly and gradually, devaluation increases a country's competitiveness in the global
market and may eventually reduce its trade deficit. However, a sudden and significant devaluation
may frighten overseas investors, who may decide to withdraw their investment opportunities from
the country out of concern that the currency would depreciate even more.

II.IV BUDGET AND CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT

Fiscal dominance, large deficits, and public debt have all been features of Sri Lanka's
macroeconomic environment. Due to the recurrent balance-of-payments crises and turmoil, this
has resulted in a high level of macroeconomic volatility. Sri Lanka's economy has the conventional
twin deficits. Twin deficits are common, which suggests serious economic imbalances. Twin
deficits indicate that a country's production of tradable products and services is insufficient and
that its national expenditures are more than its national revenues (Weerakoon, 2017). The economy
of Sri Lanka has a high degree of macroeconomic instability, as seen by the recurrent balance of
payments (BOP) crises that it experiences.

II.V HYPERINFLATION

Due to the hyperinflation, which tends to exacerbate inequality and poverty because it hits lower-
and middle-income households' income and savings harder than it does for wealthy households,
as well as the possibility that people will start hoarding goods like food, Sri Lanka, which is
currently experiencing its worst economic crisis, may see a worsening of the current situation.
Shortages in the food supply may arise consequently. Money loses value when prices rise too much
which has less purchasing power due to inflation. Consumers that have less purchasing power must
spend more money to make fewer purchases. They consequently have less money to pay their bills
and less money to spend on necessities.

II.VI CURRENT SITUATION OF SRI LANKA

A severe lack of foreign exchange reserves caused Sri Lanka to experience an unparalleled
financial crisis in 2022, which also triggered political unrest on the island nation and resulted in
the overpowering Rajapaksa family's removal. The biggest economic crisis Sri Lanka has ever
experienced since gaining independence is now affecting the country and is predicted to last
through 2023. Fuel, cooking gas, medicine, and many other necessities are in low supply. In the
same period, the nation is experiencing a political turmoil, which prompted to island-wide
demonstrations and Mahinda Rajapaksa's resignation from the position of prime minister in May.
President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, Mahinda's brother, was also forced to quit.

III. ANALYSIS

Sri Lanka lost access to global financial markets in 2020 because of its credit rating downgrades.
Without market access, Sri Lanka continues to compensate for imports and service its foreign debt
with the assistance of state reserves and bank loans. Except for a currency transaction for US$1.5
billion with China, government reserves declined from US$7.6 billion in 2019 to less than US$400
million in June 2022. The banking system's net foreign assets also declined, reaching US$ -5.9
billion in June 2022. This severe FX liquidity constraint has been felt across the economy,
particularly since the second quarter of 2022, due to shortages of fuel, medicines, cooking gas, and
other essential economic inputs. Sri Lanka declared in April 2022 that it would suspend paying its
external debts due to low reserves, and it later named financial and legal advisers to help with debt
restructuring. In July of 2022, a new president was appointed amidst massive protests.
Nonetheless, because of the current economic crisis, political tensions remain elevated.

It is anticipated that poverty will have increased in 2022 as a direct effect of the economic
downturn. Due to issues such as food inflation, job losses, limited fertilizer supplies, and a
reduction in remittances, low-income families have suffered the most. In the face of considerable
declines in real income, the aid offered by social assistance, despite being in some ways beneficial,
is insufficient. During the first half of 2022, the goods trade deficit dropped by 18.6 percent on an
annual basis due to higher exports, notably of textiles, which expanded at a quicker pace than
imports. The majority of import finance came from India's financial assistance, which totaled
around $3.8 billion. It is projected that the current account deficit has widened during this period
due to a drop in remittances and limited tourist revenues. In May, after the Sri Lankan Rupee
(LKR) had dropped by around 78% since the floating of the currency in March, the central bank
of Sri Lanka reinstated a restricted floating. In March, the floating of the LKR happened. Due to
low levels of investor confidence, it has been difficult for Sri Lanka to receive export profits and
remittances through legal channels. Regardless of the existence of legislative repatriation and
conversion processes, this is the issue. Despite an increase in expenditure in the first four months
of 2022 owing to greater assistance offered to beneficiaries of social security benefits, public
workers, and pensioners, the main deficit was lowered by a variety of revenue initiatives, including
a one-time tax on major firms. Considering the ever-increasing cost of interest, the majority of the
general deficit was covered by the central bank, and it remained relatively stable over the whole
time. In order to collect more revenue, the government increased the value-added tax rate from 8%
to 15% and proposed further tax measures in May and through the interim budget in August.

The International Monetary Fund must employ the leverage available to it in order ensure that Sri
Lankans get assistance in an open and sensible manner. The International Monetary Fund and the
government should investigate the potential of imposing progressive taxes in order to obtain the
necessary revenue to support a social security extension. It should also consider the protestors'
demands, which are endorsed by the Foreign Relations Committee of the United States Senate, to
abolish systematic corruption and strengthen the rule of law. Developing revisions that have
damaged the independence of the judiciary, the human rights commission, and the bribery
commission are one of the most concrete actions the administration may take. Currently, three
anti-corruption proposals are being discussed in the House of Representatives. In addition, it
should encourage competent and impartial investigations of corruption and give assistance to other
governments as they investigate and, if necessary, recover stolen assets hidden abroad. Mass
demonstrations have made it quite clear that a substantial number of Sri Lankans want
accountability-enhancing and problem-solving reforms. Nonetheless, the people of Sri Lanka are
in dire need of IMF assistance. These demands should be supported by the IMF's operations

IV. RECOMMENDATION

Sri Lanka must step outside of their comfort zone in order to boost their economy. They must
consider exploring for development prospects and international investment beyond their borders
in order to raise their competitiveness in the global perspective. This open environment will
empower the country's labor force and broaden their expertise in the supply and demand chain,
allowing them to produce a greater quality of domestic goods and services. Consequently, having
an area to country that is associated with foreign investments would be a great strategy for
attracting new enterprises (Pswarayi-Riddihough, 2017). Furthermore, in order to enhance the Sri
Lanka's social safety nets, their programs must also be adequately equipped for its increasing
population. To accomplish this, a reform must be performed to their system and programs,
particularly their primary welfare program, Samurdhi, which was formed in 1996 and has not been
re-evaluated and revised since then. The World Bank is also extending assistance to the
country, which should be considered (The World Bank, 2017). According to Rafi and Abeyratne
(2022), Sri Lanka's ongoing crisis must also be utilized to undertake major changes in the
economy, which is something that the government has never done before. Sri Lanka might explore
eliminating its regressive subsidies in order to reorganize state-owned businesses. Hence, handling
the particular problems of the crisis while the economy is on the edge of collapse will be most
vital, and so will the comprehensive policy reforms, which may be the ray of hope for Sri Lanka's
economic meltdown.

V. CONCLUSION

The Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka is placed on the Indian Ocean between the Laccadive Sea and
the Bay of Bengal. Sri Lanka has a populace of 22,146,000 people, and its capital is Sri
Jayewardenepura Kotte. The country's citizens are referred to as Sinhalese or Cingalese, and they
speak Sinhalese, Tamil, and English. Officially, they are recognized as a Democratic Republic and
a unitary state, and they have established three branches of government: the Executive Branch, the
Legislative Branch, and the Judicial Branch. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Prime Minister
Ranil Wickremesinghe are currently in power. They are also utilizing Sri Lankan Rupee currency
(LKR).

Sri Lanka's history began with the introduction of Buddhism between 273 and 232 BCE, which
led to the accumulation of information about social cohesion and political and economic
management. Since the arrival of Buddhism, major events such as the invasion of southern India,
the rule of the Lambakanna dynasty, the rise and fall of Polonnaruwa, the possession of south
Indian dynasties in the north, the establishment of a Tamil kingdom at Nallurs, the arrival of the
Portuguese, the occupation of the Dutch, the govern of the British, the independence of Sri Lanka,
and the war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Ealam have taken place constantly. All of these
occurrences are relevant presently because all of the problems and issues that occurred in the past,
such as weak and inept leaders, contributed to the collapse of their economy and politics.

The current global position of Sri Lanka is 123rd. According to statistics from 2021, Sri Lanka has
a Gross National Income of 88,979 million dollars and a GDP per capita of 4,016 dollars in 2021.
However, Sri Lanka's national debt reached 91,719 million dollars in 2021, equivalent to 103.08%
of GDP. This means that Sri Lanka's status in the world community has declined. Sri Lanka's
political and economic woes are exacerbated by the recurrence of such tragedies, which, together
with the country's debt, constitute its gravest difficulties. Civil war, dependency on imported
commodities, a restricted trade system, a bad investment culture, periods of slack monetary policy,
a controlled exchange, the 2019 Easter bombing, the Covid-19 epidemic, incompetent and
ineffective administration are its principal factors. These reasons also culminated in budget and
current account deficits, hyperinflation, a depreciated currency, and an enormous, unpayable
national debt.

The intention of this analysis paper, titled "Sri Lanka's Inevitable Demise: Could This Be The
Harbinger Of Sri Lanka's Political And Economic Implosion?" is to look into the causes and
consequences of what is currently happening in Sri Lanka. This is an important matter to
understand and assess because it could occur in any country. To avoid a comparable disaster to Sri
Lanka from developing in a certain country, its shortcomings and problems must be acknowledged
and addressed in order to formulate such policies or programs to arrive at a solution.
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62132271

Message to Professor Jumel:

Hello Sir. I hope you are doing well. I would like to express my gratitude and amazement to you,
sir, because despite of your busy schedule, you were able to communicate and share your beliefs,
lessons, and advices with us, your students, as well as being considerate and patient with us. I am
very glad that I became one of your students in this semester. I will continue to wish you well and
pray for your good health and happiness in your life. God bless you, sir, and have a nice day!

- Lyng ♡