Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730

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Remote Sensing of Environment

j o u r n a l h o m e p a g e : w w w. e l s ev i e r. c o m / l o c a t e / r s e

Annual changes in MODIS vegetation indices of Swedish coniferous forests in relation

to snow dynamics and tree phenology
A.M. Jönsson a,⁎, L. Eklundh a, M. Hellström a, L. Bärring a,b, P. Jönsson c
a
Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, Division of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, SE-223 62 Lund, Sweden
b
Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-601 76 Norrköping, Sweden
c
Centre for Technology Studies, Environment and Society, Malmö University, 205 06 Malmö, Sweden

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: Remote sensing provides spatially and temporally continuous measures of forest reflectance, and vegetation
Received 12 February 2010 indices calculated from satellite data can be useful for monitoring climate change impacts on forest tree
Received in revised form 18 June 2010 phenology. Monitoring of evergreen coniferous forest is more difficult than monitoring of deciduous forest, as the
Accepted 18 June 2010
new buds only account for a small proportion of the green biomass, and the shoot elongation process is relatively
slow. In this study, we have analyzed data from 186 coniferous monitoring sites in Sweden covering boreal,
Keywords:
Coniferous forest
southern-boreal, and boreo-nemoral conditions. Our objective was to examine the possibility to track seasonal
MODIS changes in coniferous forests by time-series of MODIS eight-day vegetation indices, testing the coherence
NDVI between satellite monitored vegetation indices (VI) and temperature dependent phenology. The relationships
Norway spruce between two vegetation indices (NDVI and WDRVI) and four phenological indicators (length of snow season,
Phenology modeled onset of vegetation period, tree cold hardiness level and timing of budburst) were analyzed.
Scots pine The annual curves produced by two curve fitting methods for smoothening of seasonal changes in NDVI and
TIMESAT WDRVI were to a large extent characterized by the occurrence of snow, producing stable seasonal oscillations in
WDRVI
the northern part and irregular curves with less pronounced annual amplitude in the southern part of the country.
Measures based on threshold values of the VI-curves, commonly used for determining the timing of different
phenological phases, were not applicable for Swedish coniferous forests. Evergreen vegetation does not have a
sharp increase in greenness during spring, and the melting of snow can influence the vegetation indices at the
timing of budburst in boreal forests. However, the interannual variation in VI-values for specific eight-day periods
was correlated with the phenological indicators. This relation can be used for satellite monitoring of potential
climate change impacts on northern coniferous spring phenology.
© 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The recent global warming has induced earlier timing of spring
events (IPCC, 2007; Parmesan, 2006). In a meta-analysis with data
from Europe, the average advance of spring/summer was estimated to
be 2.5 days per decade during the period of 1971–2000 (Menzel et al.,
2006). Changes in tree phenology may have implications for forest
management, in particular during the phase of forest regeneration
with selection of suitable tree species and provenances (Larsen, 1995;
Saxe et al., 2001). Leafing and flowering are visible signs of tree
response to seasonal changes, preceded by physiological processes
associated with recovery from winter dormancy. Both the seasonal
cold hardiness level (i.e. tolerance of freezing temperatures) and
timing of budburst are affected by the cumulative impact of ambient
temperature (Chuine, 2000; Kalberer et al., 2006). In a warming
climate, the trees may not develop the same cold hardiness as today,
⁎ Corresponding author. Tel.: +46 46 222 94 10.
E-mail address: Anna_Maria.Jonsson@nateko.lu.se (A.M. Jönsson).
and they may be hardened for a shorter period of time. De-hardening
and budburst may occur already in the beginning of the year when the
seasonal temperature progression is slow and the risk of temperature
backlashes with sudden frost episodes is high, which has raised
concerns of an increased risk for frost damage (Cannell & Smith, 1986;
Jönsson et al., 2004; Morin et al., 2009).
Monitoring of forest phenology is required to assess the impact of
ongoing climate change, which may vary among tree species due to
different sensitivity to seasonal changes in temperature, light and
precipitation. Satellite remote sensing has the advantage of providing
spatially and temporally continuous measures of forest reflectance, and
remotely sensed data are used in calculations of different vegetation
indices. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (Tucker,
1979) is one of the most widely used indices, and it has been applied to
monitoring of spring phenological events over large areas (Beaubien &
Hall-Beyer, 2003; Cleland et al., 2007; Schwartz et al., 2002; Stöckli &
Vidale, 2004; Zhang et al., 2006). NDVI is basically a measure of
‘greenness’, and it has been related to the absorption of photosynthet-
ically active radiation (Grace et al., 2007) and GPP (Olofsson et al., 2008).
A rather high correspondence between NDVI and leaf area index has

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doi:10.1016/j.rse.2010.06.005
2720 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730
been found for Swedish coniferous forests (Tagesson et al., 2009),
though dense coniferous forests are commonly above the threshold for
recognizing asymptotic saturation effects (Eriksson, 2007). The same
phenomenon may occur during monitoring of agricultural areas, and the
Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index (WDRVI), derived from the
NDVI, has been developed and used for reducing the sensitivity to
saturation effects (Viña & Gitelson, 2005).
Satellite data have successfully been used for monitoring of birch
phenology at high latitudes in Fennoscandia, using thresholds for the
onset of growing season (Karlsen et al., 2006, 2007, 2008). However,
the phenology of evergreen tree species can be more difficult to
monitor than the phenology of deciduous species. One reason is that
the annual changes in photosynthetic capacity of evergreen trees are
less obvious, since green tissue is present all year round, and the new
shoots only account for a part of the green biomass. In a study of
boreal North America, NDVI of evergreen coniferous forest did not
reveal any consistent trend in relation to changes in temperature,
whereas increasing lengths of growing season were detected for the
nearby tundra region (Goetz et al., 2005).
A range of problems is encountered when monitoring forests at
high latitudes. The reliability and accuracy of winter values are
generally lower than during other seasons due to an influence of large
solar zenith angles, and to snow affecting the spectral reflectance
(Delbart et al., 2005; Schwartz, 1999). Smoothing methods for
outlining the seasonal patterns of vegetation are commonly used for
reducing effects dependent on view angle, errors in georeferencing
and low quality of data, though these methods may in turn add
uncertainties related to the interpretation of data (Hird & McDermid,
2009). Several methods can be used for extracting phenological
measures from the annual curves (i.e. global thresholds, local thresh-
olds, conceptual–mathematical functions and hybrid functions), and
the choice of method can have a large impact on the results as the
methods differ in ability to track observed variability in timing of
phenology (White et al., 2009).
The objective of this study is to analyze the possibility to track
seasonal changes in coniferous forests by time-series of MODIS
eight-day vegetation index data, taking uncertainties of post-
processing into account by comparing the performance of two
vegetation indices smoothed by two fitting methods. The study was
carried out with the specific aims to 1) characterize the annual curves
of NDVI (most commonly used) and WDRVI (more recently
developed for agricultural purposes, not yet thoroughly tested for
forest conditions) produced by the double logistic and the Savitzky–
Golay fitting methods, and 2) analyze the coherence in between-year
variations of vegetation indices and temperature dependent onset of
spring phenology. We used data from Swedish forest monitoring
sites, covering three forest vegetation zones (boreo-nemoral,
southern-boreal, and boreal conditions). Phenological indicators
were derived from simulations of coniferous cold hardiness, onset of
vegetation period, budburst and MODIS snow/ice flags.
2. Material and methods
2.1. Monitoring sites
In Sweden, almost 23 million ha are covered by forest. Norway
spruce (Picea abies) accounts for 42% of the standing volume, and
Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) for 38% (Loman, 2008). Norway spruce is
commonly grown on more fertile soil than Scots pine. There is a
general south to north temperature trend across Sweden, with the
average annual temperature during the period of 1961–1990 ranging
from 7 °C in the southernmost part to − 3 °C in the mountainous
northernmost part. The length of growing season ranges from above
210 days in the south to less than 100 days in the north. South Sweden
(latitude 55°N–58.7°N) is characterized by boreo-nemoral conditions
with a mixture between summergreen broadleaved trees and
evergreen needleleaved trees. Further north, the evergreen needle-
leaved trees dominate. Mid Sweden (latitude 58.7°N–63.5°N) is
characterized by southern-boreal conditions, and North Sweden
(latitude 63.5°N–68.3°N) by boreal conditions (Ahti et al., 1968).
Monitoring of soil conditions, understorey vegetation, crown condi-
tion and tree nutrient status (Table 1) is carried out at coniferous
forest sites by the Swedish forest agency according to the standards of
ICP-forest (Haussmann & Lorenz, 2004). The size of the monitoring
plots is about 50 m × 50 m. Only sites dominated by coniferous forest
within a radius of 250 m according to Swedish CORINE land cover data
(LMV, 2002) were included in this analysis (117 Norway spruce sites
and 69 Scots pine sites, Fig. 1). The forest site characteristics are
influenced by climatic and geographical conditions showing latitudi-
nal trends. An increase in latitude correlated with an increasing
proportion of understorey vegetation, higher number of trees, older
trees, lower productivity, less annual growth, and less nitrogen in the
soil (Table 2).
2.2. MODIS data
In this study, satellite data products from the Moderate-Resolution
Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) instrument onboard the Terra
satellite were used. Two MODIS tiles, labeled H18V02 and H18V03,
were used for extraction of data for the period of March 2000 to
August 2008. Gap filling was performed for the period A2001169
using a copy of A2001161 for both tiles.
Vegetation indices (NDVI and WDRVI) were calculated from the
red and near-infrared reflectance using the eight-day 250 meter
resolution surface reflectance (MOD09Q1) (Fig. 2), including the
reflectance data from bands 1 (red) and 2 (NIR) as well as the quality
flags “band 1 data”, “band 2 data” and “MODLAND QA”. As the “cloud
state” quality flag included in the 250-m MOD09Q1 product was
considered to be somewhat unreliable, the cloudiness information
“MOD35 cloud” from the eight-day 500 meter resolution surface
reflectance (MOD09A1) was combined with the quality information
for the reflectance measurements “MODLAND QA bits” into an overall
data quality indicator for each 250-m pixel used in the study.
Similarly, the presence of snow and/or ice was derived directly from
the 500-m data “MOD35 snow/ice”. (Note the concentration of pixels
affected by snow and/or clouds during the winter season in Fig. 2).
The dates and orbits of the 250-m reflectance measurements were
assumed to be identical to the day-of-year value recorded in the
corresponding 500-m resolution dataset.
High quality was defined as occurring when the 250-m resolution
reflectance bands were flagged as having ideal quality of all bands,
and the 500-m resolution “MOD35 cloud” flags had the value “clear”.
Reasonable quality corresponded to “less than ideal quality” for either
or both of the reflectance measurements and/or “mixed” cloud status.
All other combinations were classified as poor quality.
Table 1
Norway spruce and Scots pine sites monitored by the Swedish forest agency according
to the standards of ICP-forest were included in this study. Monitored forest site
characteristics were used as explanatory variables in statistical analysis of vegetation
indices calculated from MODIS data.
Information category Site characteristics
Site position Latitude, longitude, height above sea level
Tree species Norway spruce/Scots pine
Stand properties Number of trees, tree age, productivity class,
annual growth, standing volume 2004
Soil nutrient status Carbon content, nitrogen content, base saturation
Soil properties Moisture class, pH (KCl), pH (H2O)
Understorey vegetation % Cover
Crown defoliation % Needle loss, monitored during years 2000–2005
Land cover class Coniferous forest, broadleaved forest, arable land,
other land use
 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730 2721

Fig. 1. Map showing the distribution of coniferous forest monitoring sites in Sweden. Gray dots indicate Norway spruce sites (n = 117) and black dots Scotch pine sites (n = 69). The
two black lines show the borders between the North (latitude 63.5°N–68.3°N), Mid (latitude 58.7°N–63.5°N), and South (latitude 55°N–58.7°N), parts of Sweden.

As an alternative to the commonly used NDVI index, the Wide
Dynamic Range Vegetation Index WDRVI has been proposed (Viña &
Gitelson, 2005):
WDRVI = ððα + 1Þ × NDVI + ðα−1ÞÞ  ððα−1Þ × NDVI + ðα + 1ÞÞ
where the weighting coefficient (α) serves to attenuate the contri-
bution of the NIR wavelength band for moderate-to-high green
biomass, hence reducing the saturation behavior inherent to the NDVI
metric as leaf area index increases. In the present study the value
α = 0.2 was chosen, based on experiences from a study of pine stands
in southern Norway (Eklundh et al., 2009).

2.3. Phenological indicators

Table 2
Correlation between forest site characteristics (Table 1) and latitude, influencing climatic Large-scale field observations of coniferous phenology have not been
and geographical conditions, calculated for Norway spruce and Scots pine, respectively. carried out in Sweden, and we therefore used three temperature
Correlation coefficients are only given for significant correlations (pb 0.05).
dependent indicators to assess the variation between sites and years;
Site characteristics Norway spruce Scots pine cold hardiness level, onset of vegetation period, and the subsequent
r-values (n = 122) r-values (n = 72)
timing of budburst. Two phenological models, described in the following
paragraphs, were run with daily temperature data for the period of
Understorey vegetation 0.40 0.34
2000–2006. Gridded mean and minimum temperatures at 2 meter
Height above sea level 0.23 0.45
Number of trees 0.22 0.32 above ground (T2mean and T2min) were obtained from the E-Obs
Tree age 0.28 0.28 gridded dataset version 1.0 (daily temporal resolution, 0.22 degree
Productivity class − 0.63 Not significant spatial resolution), available via the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES
Annual growth − 0.43 − 0.49
(Haylock et al., 2008).
Standing volume − 0.54 − 0.48
pH (KCl) 0.41 0.31 The seasonal development of tree tolerance to frost was expressed
pH (H2O) 0.57 0.29 as the cold hardiness level, simulated with a daily time step (Jönsson
Base saturation 0.50 0.26 et al., 2004). For each time step, the daily mean temperature was used
Soil carbon content − 0.37 − 0.38 for calculating a steady-state hardiness level. The steady-state
Soil nitrogen content − 0.38 − 0.45
hardiness level corresponds to a threshold of frost tolerance induced
2722 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730

Fig. 2. Data for two sites with evergreen coniferous forests; one with stable seasonal oscillations (A) situated at Lat 60.88°N, Lon 13.8°E and one with irregular and less pronounced annual
amplitudes (B) situated at Lat 56.99°N, Lon 15.49°E. The two upper subplots in A and B show NDVI data, processed with the software TIMESAT using the double logistic (solid black line) and
Savitzky–Golay (dashed gray line) methods. Unprocessed data are indicated as circles (○), high quality observations are indicated as circles with a dot (⨀), and a star (✰) indicates
observations influenced by snow or ice. The lower subplots show red reflectance data (red circles) and NIR reflectance data (black circles), used for calculating the NDVI (detailed data for
years 2003–2005). Filled circles indicate observations influenced by snow or ice. Observations influenced by cloud according to the 500-m MOD35 cloud flag are marked with a red and
black × (for red and NIR, respectively). Blue dots indicate the corresponding NDVI values (high quality only).

by temperature dependent chemical reactions and cellular adjust-
ments to withstand freezing temperatures. The minimum steady-
state hardiness level was set to − 2 °C (typical value during summer,
indicating that frost damage can occur at −2 °C), and the maximum
steady-state hardiness level was set to −50 °C (typical value during
cold winters). For each time step, the steady-state hardiness level was
compared with the cold hardiness level of the day before. If the cold
hardiness level was above the steady-state hardiness level, it was
adjusted according to a daily, temperature dependent, hardening rate.
If the cold hardiness level was below the steady-state hardiness level,
the cold hardiness level was adjusted according to a temperature
dependent de-hardening rate. However, de-hardening was not
calculated between the autumn equinox (day 260) and the winter
solstice (day 355), accounting for winter dormancy. For comparison
 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730
with satellite data, the cold hardiness level for the satellite
observation day within each eight-day period was used.
In this study, the onset of coniferous vegetation processes was
calculated to occur after four consecutive days with a temperature
above the threshold of 5 °C (Persson et al., 2007; Suni et al., 2003). The
accumulation of temperature impact on developmental processes
leading to budburst was counted from this onset. The budburst was
modeled to occur when 120 or 170 degree days had accumulated. The
thresholds correspond to values reported for Norway spruce adapted
to the climate north and south of the boreal border at latitude 61°N
(Hannerz, 1994, 1999; Jönsson et al., 2004). In this study we used the
same thresholds for Scots pine as for Norway spruce for obtaining the
vegetation index value before budburst, as the Scots Pine has
approximately the same or somewhat higher thermal requirement
(Beuker, 1994; Rötzer et al., 2004).
2.4. Analysis of data
MODIS data were processed with the software TIMESAT (Jönsson
& Eklundh, 2002, 2004), ver. 2.3, that has been developed for fitting
mathematical functions to time-series of satellite data in order to
outline the seasonal progression of vegetation development. The
analysis was based on data from 2001 to 2006, i.e. the years with
complete MODIS and E-Obs data sets. Data from year 2000 was used
for initiating curve fitting and cold hardiness modeling. Two model
fits were used, double logistic and Savitzky–Golay. The double logistic
function has been found to preserve the NDVI signal integrity (Hird &
McDermid, 2009) whereas Savitzky–Golay filtering using a relatively
narrow window size is able to capture rapid changes by local fitting,
but is more sensitive to noise. The data were fitted using upper
envelope-weighted least-squares methods, assuming negative biased
noise, and data were weighted according to the quality indicators
ensuring that cloudy or otherwise low-quality pixels had minimum
influence on the fitting (Fig. 2). The high quality weight was set to 1,
the less than ideal quality to 0.5, and poor quality to 0.
The three vegetation zones were characterized by analyzing
variations in annual amplitude of NDVI and WDRVI, processed by
TIMESAT using the two smoothing methods. The between-year
variation was analyzed by calculating the standard deviations of
annual amplitude, winter minimum and summer maximum for each
monitoring site. The results were expressed as the mean value for
each vegetation zone.
Regression analyses were carried out to evaluate the influence of
site characteristics (Table 1) on TIMESAT processed vegetation
indices. The summer maximum vegetation index was used for
evaluation, as this was the most stable measure (Fig. 3). Site averages
over years were calculated to get a robust measure of the dependent
variable, and site characteristics were used as explanatory factors.
The original MODIS data (i.e. not processed by TIMESAT) were
analyzed in order to investigate causes behind observed variations in
annual amplitude. The proportion of high quality records for each
eight-day period was calculated for all three vegetation zones in order
to assess seasonal variations in data quality. The influence of snow
was analyzed in a similar way by comparing observations with and
without snow as indicated by the MODIS snow/ice flags. In addition,
vegetation index values for periods with and without snow were
compared. The length of snow season was calculated as the sum of
eight-day periods indicated by the MODIS snow/ice flag as influenced
by snow during the first half of the year (periods 1 to 23).
In search of threshold values generally applicable for assessing
spring phenology, the TIMESAT processed vegetation indices were
analyzed in relation to the modeled timing of budburst. To assess the
influence of the new shoots on the vegetation indices, a ‘green
amplitude’ was calculated for all sites and years. The green amplitude
was defined as the difference between the summer maximum index
value and the index value for the eight-day period just before
2723
budburst. The vegetation index at the timing of budburst corre-
sponded roughly to 90% of the summer maximum, and this threshold
was used for comparing the modeled timing of budburst with the first
eight-day period in spring when this level was reached.
A rank correlation test was performed for each eight-day period to
analyze the within-site, between-year variation in vegetation indices
in comparison with the onset of vegetation period, timing of budburst,
number of snow-indicated periods during winter and modeled cold
hardiness level. The rank correlation tests for association between two
variables by comparing their relative performance (rank), and the test
can be used without assuming normal distribution or linear relation-
ships (Sokal & Rohlf, 1995). By using the rank correlation comparison,
the between-year variation in temperature was captured without
being sensitive to the effect of local temperature conditions deviating
from grid cell averages and provenance-specific phenological timing,
thereby reducing uncertainties associated with phenological model-
ing and quality of climate data.
All modeling and data analysis were performed with MATLAB 7.0.4
(The MathWorks Inc.).
3. Results
3.1. Characterization of NDVI and WDRVI annual curves
The curves produced by TIMESAT smoothing of vegetation indices
were characterized by stable seasonal oscillations for some sites,
whereas irregular and less pronounced annual amplitudes were
observed for other sites. Most of the sites were in-between these two
extremes (Fig. 2). However, there is a certain geographical differen-
tiation in that irregular curves with less pronounced annual amplitude
were more common in the South and Mid Sweden than in the North
(Fig. 3A). Furthermore, the between-year variation in annual
amplitude was typically more pronounced in the South than in the
North, but this regional differentiation was sensitive to curve fitting
procedure as it was more emphasized by the double logistic method
than by the Savitzky–Golay method (Fig. 3B). For all three geograph-
ical regions, the variation in annual amplitude was mainly attributed
to variation during winter. The high variation during winter was in
turn caused by to two factors, data quality (including cloud) (Fig. 4)
and occurrence of snow (Fig. 5). The data quality was lower during
winter than during other seasons, and particularly low in the North.
Whereas low-quality data were not included in the analysis, the curve
fitting procedures were indirectly affected by missing data.
For all sites, the average vegetation index value during periods
with snow was below 0.5 for NDVI and below − 0.2 for WDRVI.
However, for all sites the highest values with snow were larger than
the lowest values without snow. This overlap was partly related to
seasonality, i.e. vegetation indices measured during brief periods
with snow cover late in winter season (March–April) had generally
higher values than vegetation indices measured during midwinter
(Fig. 6A, B). This was related to an increase in both red and NIR
reflectance during snow periods occurring later in winter season
(Fig. 2). Within each eight-day period, vegetation indices for years
with snow were lower than for years without snow.
The within-site variation in vegetation indices was much less
pronounced during summer than during winter (Fig. 3B). The summer
maximum of the annual curves captured between-site variations in
forest properties, being positively correlated with annual growth and
standing volume, and negatively correlated with crown defoliation
(Table 3).
3.2. Vegetation indices in relation to temperature dependent phenology
The timing of phenological events was mainly determined by the
latitude and further modulated by between-year variations. Onset of
vegetation processes occurred in January to June (eight-day periods
2724 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730

Fig. 3. A) Mean vegetation index value and B) between-year variations, expressed as standard deviation, in winter minimum, summer maximum and annual amplitude for two
vegetation indices (NDVI and WDRVI) processed by two curve fitting methods, double logistic (DL) and Savitzky–Golay (SG). The standard deviations are site mean values,
calculated for all monitoring sites (n = 186) using data from 2001 to 2006.

Fig. 4. Quality of MODIS data during 2001–2006 with 46 eight-day periods per year. The boxes show the median, upper and lower quartile of the fraction of high quality observations
in the satellite monitoring data set covering 186 sites dominated by coniferous forest in North (n = 14), Mid (n = 88) and South Sweden (n = 92). The whiskers show the 1.5
interquartile range, and outliers are indicated by +.
 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730 2725

Fig. 5. Occurrence of snow during 2001–2006 within the 46 eight-day periods per year. The boxes show the median, upper and lower quartile of the fraction of snow/ice observations
in the satellite monitoring data set covering 186 sites dominated by coniferous forest in North (n = 14), Mid (n = 88) and South Sweden (n = 92). The whiskers show the 1.5
interquartile range, and outliers are indicated by +.

Fig. 6. A) Unprocessed NDVI values for all sites (only high quality data, sorted in latitudinal order with data from the northernmost site at the top of the figures and data from
the southernmost site at the bottom of the figure) and eight-day periods not influenced by snow according to the MODIS snow/ice flag. B) Unprocessed NDVI values for all sites and
eight-day periods influenced by snow according to the MODIS snow/ice flag.
2726 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730

Table 3 used for assessing the timing of budburst as it varied considerably

Correlation coefficients between forest site characteristics (Table 1) and summer between sites and years, commonly occurring much earlier in season
maxima obtained for two vegetation indices (NDVI and WDRVI) as processed by two
curve fitting methods (double logistic and Savitzky–Golay). Norway spruce (n = 117)
than the timing of budburst (Fig. 7B). Sites with a pronounced annual
and Scots pine sites (n = 69) were treated separately. Only statistically significant amplitude, however, displayed a substantial increase in vegetation
correlations (p b 0.05) are shown. indices between the onset of the vegetation period and the timing of
budburst (illustrated for one site in Fig. 8). This is related to the
Tree Measure NDVI WDRVI
species melting of snow, and in the North the melting of snow can lead to a
Double Savitzky– Double Savitzky–
substantial increase in the vegetation indices also after budburst. This
logistic Golay logistic Golay
(r-values) (r-values) (r-values) (r-values) was particularly pronounced for Scots pine stands, showing higher
green amplitudes in the North than in the Mid and South Sweden
Spruce Annual growth 0.36 0.29 0.34 0.32
Standing volume 0.28 0.25 0.26 0.25
(Fig. 9). The Savitzky–Golay method that is sensitive to local variations
Crown defoliation − 0.20 − 0.16 − 0.23 − 0.20 in index values produced more pronounced green amplitudes than the
Pine Annual growth 0.64 0.58 0.64 0.59 double logistic method.
Standing volume 0.56 0.53 0.56 0.53 Whereas it was not possible to determine the annual timing of
Crown defoliation − 0.29 − 0.30 − 0.30 − 0.28
budburst using vegetation index thresholds, the interannual variabil-
ity of vegetation indices within each eight-day period covaried with
1–20), end of de-hardening in March to June (periods 16–22), timing the interannual variability of the four temperature dependent
of budburst in May to June (periods 17–23), and start of hardening measures of spring progress (Fig. 10). Years with an early onset of
in July to December (periods 23–45). The average NDVI value at vegetation processes and early timing of budburst were associated
the timing of budburst (Fig. 7A) corresponded approximately to with high vegetation index values, whereas years with late timing
90% of the site-specific summer maximum value (cf Fig. 9). The first were associated with low index values (i.e. negative rank correlation).
eight-day period when the 90% level is reached could however not be Longer snow seasons with late onset of spring were associated with
low vegetation indices, and shorter snow seasons with high
vegetation indices. On the other hand, deeper levels of cold hardiness
were associated with low vegetation indices, and lower levels of cold
hardiness with high vegetation indices (i.e. positive rank correlation).
The correlations were not statistically significant for all sites and
monitoring periods, due to uncertainties associated with data quality.
Nevertheless, the trend over adjacent periods indicated that the
strength of the correlations were dependent on the climate of the
geographical regions, and this can be used for monitoring interannual
variations in onset of spring.
The four indicators of spring processes produced complementary
assessments, with the relative importance during different eight-day
periods being related to indicator-specific timing and interannual
variation (Fig. 10). The length of the periods with correlations for the
four phenological indicators were partly overlapping, due to the
cumulative impact of temperature on snow melting and timing of
budburst. The vegetation indices were therefore correlated with the
length of snow season also in periods later than the latest snow record
(Fig. 5), and vice versa for the correlation between vegetation indices
and the timing of budburst. The regional-specific trends were
somewhat more pronounced for WDRVI than NDVI, but without any
major difference between the two smoothing methods.

4. Discussion

Satellite monitoring of forest phenology requires a defined

Fig. 7. A) The timing of budburst in relation to the eight-day periods for 2001–2006.
B) The first period in spring when NDVI exceeded 90% of the summer maximum value.
Data for NDVI were processed with the software TIMESAT using the double logistic
method. The boxes show the median, upper and lower quartile for 186 monitoring sites
with Norway spruce and Scots pine. The whiskers show the 1.5 interquartile range, and
outliers are indicated by +. (See Figs. 2 and 8 for examples of site-specific annual
curves).
relationship between tree phenology and vegetation indices, and
there are a wide range of methods for estimating the start of spring
using remote sensing data, most of them producing estimates that are
related to or influenced by the snow dynamics (White et al., 2009). In
this study we analyzed time-series of satellite data for northern
coniferous forests, covering a latitudinal gradient in duration of snow
cover and commencement of spring phenology. We found some
support for relating the vegetation indices to temperature dependent
processes in spring. It was, however, not possible to establish any
absolute or relative threshold values for assessing the timing of
budburst, as the general outline of the annual cycle was more related
to snow dynamics than to small and relatively slow changes in needle
biomass. Neither can analysis of the rate of change in vegetation index
between eight-day periods be used for monitoring of budburst in
Sweden, due to the interference between snow melting and greening-
up in combination with uncertainties associated with single vegetation
index values.
 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730 2727

Fig. 8. Data for NDVI and WDRVI, processed with the software TIMESAT using the double logistic (DL) and Savitzky–Golay (SG) methods for one site with Norway spruce, situated at
Lat 64.24°N, Lon 17.39°E. The curves represent one year each (2001–2006), and modeled onset of vegetation processes (⨀) and timing of budburst (*) are indicated. Note the
interannual variation in vegetation indices for the two phenological indicators.

Snow alters surface reflectance, and snow covered forests may
have very low NDVI values (Myneni et al., 1997). Winter-time
monitoring conditions are therefore very variable and the reflectance
data are not related to forest properties per se. The between-year
variation in snow cover had a large influence on the annual amplitude
in South and Mid Sweden, whereas the variation was less pronounced
in the North due to longer periods with snow cover and a less variable
seasonal progression. It has been suggested that vegetation properties
should only be examined at NDVI values above 0.2 as they are less
likely to be affected by snow (Suzuki et al., 2003). This study indicated
that a fixed threshold value would be of little use for monitoring of
coniferous forests at northern latitudes due to the large overlap
between records with and without snow. The snow/ice flags may
provide a better option for sorting out records influenced by snow.
Green coniferous canopies can, however, be observed even during
winters with snow covered ground (Suzuki et al., 2001), as the snow
on branches is likely to disappear due to wind and sun exposure
whereas the ground snow is more likely to stay for longer periods.

Fig. 9. ‘Green amplitude’, the difference between the VI value at the period before budburst and the summer maximum.
2728 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730
Fig. 10. Rank correlation analysis of the interannual variation in vegetation index values and the temperature dependent onset of vegetation processes, timing of budburst, length of
snow season, and modeled cold hardiness level. The correlation coefficient (r-value), calculated for each site and eight-day period from January to June (i.e. periods 1–23) using data
from 2001 to 2006, expresses the degree of association. The r-values represent the mean across sites in the North (n = 14), Mid (n = 88) and South (n = 92) Sweden. Data shown for
WDRVI processed with TIMESAT using the Savitzky–Golay method.
This creates a need for evaluating the performance of the snow/ice
flag during conditions when the reflectance data represent a mixture
between green forest canopy and snow. Another issue is related to
poor illumination conditions at high latitude sites in wintertime
caused by high solar zenith angles. While the MODIS quality flag data
identifies measurements obtained at solar zenith angles above 86°, it
may be necessary to use a more conservative threshold, at least for
sites located in areas with highly variable topography where
shadowing effects are accentuated.
The annual changes in needle biomass are related to the gradual
increase by bud burst and shoot elongation during spring and
summer, and gradual decrease during autumn caused by shedding of
older needles. The annual turnover decreases with increasing
latitude, from 40% in the South to 20% in the North for Scots pine
and from 20% to 10% for Norway spruce (Lagergren et al., 2006). The
green amplitude did, however, not replicate this pattern, as it was
most pronounced in the North where the estimated amplitude was
influenced by snow melting occurring at the same time as budburst
(Delbart et al., 2005). Scots pine stands indicated a higher influence
from snow than Norway spruce stands, and this is most likely related
to the differences in tree needle densities that affected the
proportion of ground visible from the sky. The difference between
tree species in annual needle biomass turnover was however not
detected in the South and Mid part, and evergreen understorey
vegetation (e.g. mosses, lichens and lingonberry) in stands with
lower tree crown density can have caused a dampening of the green
amplitude (Wang et al., 2004), whereas NDVI saturation effects can
occur in dense forests (Eriksson, 2007). In addition, the phenology of
deciduous understorey vegetation (e.g. blueberry) may affect the
seasonal variability observed by satellite monitoring of sparse
coniferous forest.
Difficulties in monitoring of coniferous forests call for the
development of new remote sensing techniques. Although the
coniferous trees remain green during the dormancy season, the
photosynthetic efficiency is down-regulated as a response to low
demands of carbohydrates (Ensminger et al., 2004). Seasonal changes
in photosynthetic efficiency are not visible to the eye, but physiolog-
ical changes associated with cold hardening such as clumping of
chloroplasts, modification of cell membranes, cell dehydration and
forming of intracellular ice (Zwiazek et al., 2001) change the light
absorbance and reflectance. These changes could possibly be detected
by remote sensing using wavelengths outside the range included in
NDVI and WDRVI (Grace et al., 2007; Nakaji et al., 2008).
NDVI and WDRVI may nevertheless be used as a large-scale
complement to ground observations of climate change impact on
spring phenology, with the strength of the analysis being that satellite
data required for calculating NDVI and WDRVI is now available for a
fairly long period of time. In this study, we showed that the site-
specific variation in vegetation indices within different eight-day
periods was related to the temperature dependent timing of
greening-up (including both melting of snow and increase in green
biomass). The relation between phenological indicators and eight-day
periods differed between geographical regions, being most pro-
nounced for time periods with high interannual variability. The site-
specific annual curves can be expected to move from relatively stable
seasonal oscillations to more irregular patterns with lower annual
amplitude in response to a progressively warmer climate. Over time
this will induce a shift in the correlation pattern within regions,
comparable to the latitudinal differences than can be observed today.
The regional analysis requires data from several monitoring sites, as
the site-specific analysis is sensitive to uncertainties associated with
satellite monitoring data and curve fitting procedures. Site-specific
analysis may also suffer from interference from tree growth, as an
annual increase in biomass will cause a subsequent increase in
vegetation indices, until the saturation level is reached, and this may
falsely be interpreted as an earlier greening. Forest management
practices, such as thinning, may cause the opposite effect unless
cancelled out by compensatory growth of understorey vegetation
(Vesala et al., 2005).
The choice of phenological models may influence the interpreta-
tion of the satellite data, and temperature driven models were used for
estimating effects of between-year variations in onset of vegetation
period and timing of budburst in this study. The photosynthetic
recovery in spring is temperature dependent (Repo et al., 2006), and a
running five-day average temperature can be used to predict the start
of photosynthesis, though alternating periods with temperatures
above and below 0 °C can turn the photosynthetic activity on and off
several times (Suni et al., 2003). Different plant species shows a similar
response to annual variations in temperature (Linkosalo et al., 2009;
Scheifinger et al., 2002; Sparks & Menzel, 2002), and thermal-time
models based on accumulation of degree days after a fixed date has
been shown to outperform more complicated phenological models
 A.M. Jönsson et al. / Remote Sensing of Environment 114 (2010) 2719–2730
(Linkosalo, 2000; Linkosalo et al., 2008). More sophisticated process-
oriented approaches may, however, be required to model climate
change impact on tree phenology (Chuine, 2000; Hänninen & Kramer,
2007), though the regulation by ambient temperature and light
conditions is not yet fully understood (Linkosalo et al., 2006).
5. Conclusions
Vegetation index threshold values, commonly used for monitoring
of spring phenology, were not applicable to Swedish coniferous
forests. Evergreen trees do not have a sharp increase in greenness
during spring, and the seasonal changes in vegetation indices were
more related to snow dynamics (approximately 90%) than to changes
in needle biomass (approximately 10%). The VI-values represent a
mixture between green forest canopy and snow covered ground, and
the melting of snow therefore influences the vegetation indices at the
timing of budburst in boreal forests. A potential for satellite monitoring
of climate change impact on northern coniferous phenology was
indicated by the VI-values for specific eight-day periods being
correlated with temperature dependent spring progress (including
both melting of snow and increase in green biomass). The regional-
specific trends were somewhat more pronounced for WDRVI than
NDVI, but without any major difference between the two smoothing
methods (double logistic and Savitsky–Golay).
Acknowledgements
This study was financially supported by the Swedish Research
Council and the Swedish National Space Board. The MODIS data were
distributed by the Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center
(LP DAAC), located at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earth
Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center (lpdaac.usgs.gov).
We acknowledge the forest monitoring data from the Swedish Forest
Agency, the climate dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES
(http://www.ensembles-eu.org) and the data providers in the ECA&D
project (http://eca.knmi.nl).
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