why population forecasting is needed in water supply project?

& what are

method of forcasting ?

Population forecasting is defined as the method of determining the expected

population for a particular design period of a water supply system with the help
of the study and analysis of future events and available records.

The population is an important parameter that is determined for the design of

the water system of a particular area. Water supply systems are designed for a
population expected for a certain design period instead of taking into
consideration the present population of the area.

There are several mathematical methods that can be used to determine the
population for a design period.

• Water supply system planning involves

– identification of service needs

– evaluation of options

– determination of optimal strategy to meet services

– development of implementation strategies

• The planning exercise involves

– collection of pertinent data

– consideration of relevant factors, and

preparation of project documents and cost estimate

method of forcasting

• Geometric or uniform percentage method: rate of increase which is

proportional to the population.

• Integrating yields

P=Po + kt
• This hypothesis could be verified by plotting recorded population growth
on semi-log paper. If a straight line can be fitted to the data, the value of k can be
estimated from the slope.

• Arithmetic method: the rate of population growth is constant.

Mathematically the hypothesis may be expressed as

• k is determined graphically of from successive population figures.

• And the future population is given by Pt = Po +kt

Where, Pt = population at some time in the future

Po = present population

t = period of projection

3. Iller Bankasi Method or Geometric Increase Method

This method is employed in a area where the population is rapidly increasing. Here the future
population Pn is given by,

Eq.5

Here, r = Assumed growth rate in percentage, n is in decades and Po is the last known population
of the city.

The value of 'r' is calculated differently based on the data available.

1.If Initial Population P' and Final Population P'' are given, then

4. Decreasing Rate of Growth Method

The method is applied to a city that owns a limiting saturation population. In this type, the rate of
growth is a function of its population deficit. That means,

dP/dt = Kd(S-P) Eq.9

Where, P is the population, S is the saturation population and Kd is the constant.

Then, Kd and Kd average is given by,

Then, future population is given by,

5. Graphical Extension Method

In this method, the population of the past few decades is plotted in the graph correctly following
a proper scale. The obtained population curve is extended to obtain the future population. The
extension o

A water audit is an accounting of all of the water in a water system resulting in a quantified
understanding of the integrity of the water system and its operation. It is the first step in
formulating an economically sound plan to address water losses. A preliminary water audit
begins with the following information and simple calculations :i

1. Determine the amount of water added to the system, typically for a one year period,

2. Determine authorized consumption (billed + unbilled), and

3. Calculate water losses (water losses = system input – authorized consumption)

a. Estimate apparent losses (unauthorized consumption + customer meter inaccuracies + billing

errors and adjustments)

b. Calculate real losses (real losses = water losses – apparent losses))

4,
Well: hydraulic structure utilized to access water-bearing aquifers

 Allows estimation of aquifer hydraulic properties

 Provides direct access to ground water conditions

1) Sampling

2) Testing

3) Resource Extraction

4) Environmental Restoration

Aquifer test: studies involving analyzing the change, with time, in water levels in an aquifer caused by
withdrawals through wells.

Drawdown/cone of depression: is the difference between the water level at any time during the test and
the original position

4,

Darcy's law

Take away ideas and understandings

Definitions of saturated/unsaturated zone, groundwater.

Groundwater flows from high to low elevations, or more precise from high potential energy
(=hydraulic head) to low potential energy.

The hydraulic head is measured by determination of the vertical position of the water table in a well
relative to a reference surface.

Darcy's law says that the discharge rate q is proportional to the gradient in hydrauolic head and the
hydraulic conductivity (q = Q/A = -K*dh/dl).

Definitions of aquifers, aquitards, and aquicludes and how hydraulic conductivity relates to geology.

Darcy's law

 what drives groundwater flow?

o water flows from high elevation to low elevation and from high pressure to low
pressure, gradients in potential energy drive groundwater flow
 o groundwater flows from high to low  head

o how do you measure the head or potential? => drill an observation well, the elevation of
the water level in the well is a measure of the potential energy at the opening of the
well

Conceptual model of groundwater flow

 the flow of water through a porous medium

 water flows tortuous paths

geometry of channels is very complex

 frictionles flow is totally meaningless!

conceptual model of flow through a porous medium is flow through a bundle of very small (capillary)
tubes of different diameters

How to determine and taste conductivity of well?

5, Methodology: The specific conductance of a sample is measured by a self-contained conductivity

electrode.

Environmental Impact: Conductivity is a measurement used to determine a number of applications

related to water quality. These are as follows:
 

1) determining mineralization: this is commonly called total dissolved solids. Total dissolved solids
information is used to determine the overall ionic effect in a water source. Certain physiological effects
on plants and animals are often affected by the number of available ions in the water.

2) noting variation or changes in natural water and wastewaters quickly;

3) estimating the sample size necessary for other chemical analyses; and

4) determining amounts of chemical reagents or treatment chemicals to be added to a water sample

 Fig

. 1.2 Classification of
groundwater

The saturated zone beneath the water table is called an aquifer. Aquifers are huge
storehouses of groundwater. There are two types of aquifers: unconfined and confined.
Unconfined aquifers are those into which water seeps from the ground directly above
the aquifer. Confined aquifers are those in which an impermeable layer exists above the
aquifer that prevents water from seeping into the ground from the surface directly
above. Instead, water seeps into confined layers from recharge zones located farther
away where the impermeable layer does not exist. Aquifers are also classified on the
basis of their size and the volume of water that can be extracted on an annual basis.

8.

What Are Impurities in Water?

When we talk about impurities found in water, we're typically referring to the
negative components dissolved in water. These impurities in water are what we
seek to exclude from drinking water. The types of impurities in water can include
dust, dirt, harmful chemicals, biological contaminants, radiological contaminants,
and total suspended solids (TSS). Total suspended solids are visible particles that
can make water appear cloudy or hazy.

What Causes Water Impurity?

Unwanted impurities in water can be caused by a variety of conditions. Water from

rainfall, streams, and wells can pick up harmful chemicals in the environment like
acid and metallic elements. Biological components in water can include bacteria,
algae, organic waste, amino acids, pathogens, viruses, microbes, and parasites.
They end up in water because of contact with industrial sewage and wastewater,
agricultural waste and runoff, decomposing waste in water bodies, and imbalances
in water chemical profiles that promote the proliferation of microbes.

Some methods of removing soluble impurities from water can help. Unfortunately,
in many cases the treated water coming from your tap includes added impurities
such as chlorine, chloramine, and fluoride.

Is Purer Better?

It’s easy to believe that the more you remove from water, the better it is. The
thought of 100% pure water seems ideal at first glance. However, water companies
labeling their products as “ultra-pure” water or purer than the rest are generally just
selling tap water that's been run through a process to remove chemicals and
particles.

And while cleaner water sounds great, during this filtering, elements that are
actually good for you are removed. The truth is, water from natural sources has
always contained minerals, and filtering it doesn’t mean it’s better.

Necessary Minerals in Water

Water in underground springs and aquifers picks up many beneficial minerals also
known as electrolytes. Naturally occurring minerals in spring water such as
calcium, magnesium, sodium, and potassium are essential for humans. While ultra-
purified might seem inviting, you may end up missing out on necessary minerals.
In addition, it’s these minerals that give flavor to water. That’s why water from
different locations has different tastes.

While it’s important to remove contaminants from drinking water, it’s unnecessary
to strip water of all of its minerals and nutrients. Consuming pure H20 deprives
your body of necessary minerals. In addition, because water is such an effective
solvent, ultra-pure water can actually pull minerals already inside your body’s cells
out.

At Eldorado, we’re passionate about water quality, and our natural spring water
represents the best of both worlds when it comes to water purity. Our award-
winning water doesn’t contain any harmful contaminants but does provide the
necessary and naturally occurring minerals your body need

9,

Site Selection for Intake Structures

1. The site should be so selected that it may admit water even under worst
condition of flow in the river. Generally, it is preferred that intake should
be sufficiently below the shore line.

2. Site should be very close to treatment plant as possible.

3. It should be so located that it is free from the pollution. It is better to

 provide intake at upper stream of city so that water is not contaminated.

4. It should not interfere with river traffic, if any.

5. It should be located where good foundation conditions are available.

6. It should be so located that it admits relatively pure water free from mud,
sand and pollutants. Means it should be protected from rapid currents.

Types of Intake Structures

Intakes are classified under three categories: Category 1:

1. Submerged intake

2. Exposed intake

Category 2:

1. Wet intake

2. Dry intake

Category 3:

1, River intake

2.Reservoir intake

3. Lake intake

4. Canal intake

1. Submerged Intake Structures

1,It is the one which is constructed entirely under water.

2, It is commonly used to obtain supply from a lake.

2. Exposed Intake Structures

1. It is in the form of a well or tower constructed near the bank of a river, or in

some cases even away from the river banks.

2. Exposed intakes are more common due to ease in operation.

3. Wet Intake Structures

 1. It is a type of intake tower in which the water level is practically the same
as the level of the sources of supply.
2. It is sometimes known as Jack well and is most commonly used.

4. Dry Intake Structures

1. In case of dry intake there is no water in the water tower.

2. Water enters through entry port directly into the conveying pipes.
3. It is simply used for the operation of valves etc.

5. River Intake Structures

1. It is a type of intake which may either located sufficiently inside the river so that
demands of water are met with in all the seasons of the year, or they may be
located near the river bank where a sufficient depth of water is available.
2. Sometimes, an approach channel is constructed and water is led to the intake
tower.
3. If the water level in the river is low, a weir may be constructed across it to raise
the water level and divert it to the intake tower.

6. Reservoir Intake Structures

1. When the flow in the river is not guaranteed throughout the year, a dam is
constructed across it to store water in the reservoir so formed.

2. These are similar to river intake, except that these are located near the
upstream face of the dam where maximum depth of water is available.

3. Design of intake may vary based on the type of dam

7. Lake Intake Structures

1. Generally submerged intakes are preferred for lake intakes.

2. These are constructed as cribs or bell mouths. The cribs are made of heavy
timber frame work which is partly or wholly filled with rip-rap to protect
the intake conduit against damage by waves etc.

3. The top of the crib is covered with cast iron or mesh grating.
8. Canal Intake Structures

1. In some cases, source of water supply to a small town may be an irrigation

canal passing nearer or through the town. Then it will be constructed.

2. Generally it consists of masonry or concrete intake chamber of rectangular

shape, admitting water through a coarse screen.

3. A fine screen is provided over the bell mouth entry of the outlet pipe.

4. The intake chamber may be constructed inside the canal bank if it does not
offer any appreciable resistance to normal flow in the canal.

5. It’s preferred to provide lining to the canal near the intake chamber.

10,

Common Valve Types and Their Applications

Valves feature a range of characteristics, standards, and groupings the help to give
you an idea of their intended applications and expected performance. Valve
designs are one of the most basic ways to sort the huge range of valves available
and finding a good fit for a project or process.

Common types of valves include:

Ball Valve

Predominantly equipped with quick-acting 90-degree turn handles, these valves

use a ball to control flow to provide easy on-off control. Generally accepted by
operators to be faster and easier to operate than gate valves.

Butterfly Valve

Using a compact design, the butterfly valve is a quick-acting rotary motion valve
ideal for tight spaces thanks to its wafer type design. Butterfly valve bodies are
offered in many different configurations.

Check Valve

Used to prevent backflow, these valves are typically self-activated allowing the
valve automatically opens when media passes through the valve in the intended
direction and close should flow reverse.

Gate Valve

As one of the most common valve types, gate valves use linear motion to start and
stop the flow. These are typically not used for flow regulation. Instead, they used
in the fully open or closed positions.

Knife Gate Valve

Typically used for controlling flow of media containing solids, the knife gate valve
features a thin gate controlled through linear action which can cut through
materials and create a seal.

While not suited for high-pressure implementations, these valves are ideal for use
with grease, oils, paper pulp, slurry, wastewater and other media which might
obstruct the operation of other valve types.

Globe Valve

Globe valves are typically applied in modulating control operations. Typically

avaialable in three body types, T-body (as shown above), Y-Pattern, and Angle
body.

Needle Valve

Typically used in small diameter piping systems when fine, accurate flow control
is needed, Needle valves get their name from the point on a conical disc used
within.

Pinch Valve

Often used for handling solid materials, slurries and liquids with suspended solids,
pinch valves use a linear motion. Typically Pinch Valves feature an internal sleeve
to isolate the media.

Plug Valve

Using a quick-acting quarter-turn valve handle, these valves control flow using
tapered or cylindrical plugs. They provide some of the best ratings when tight
shutoff is essential and are reliable in high-pressure or high-temperature
environments.

Pressure Relief Valve

Used to help improve safety, these valves are spring-automated and will help to
return a system to the desired pressure during over-pressure events.