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1990 William Even and David Macpherson - The Gender Gap in Pensions and Wages
1990 William Even and David Macpherson - The Gender Gap in Pensions and Wages
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Review of Economics and Statistics
Abstract-This study provides rationale for the underrepre- A second explanation is that pensions screen
sentation of women in the pension sector, and examines the
consequences for the gender wage gap. For a given set of
out quitters and women have above average quit
observed characteristics, a woman is 11%-19% less likely rates. The implicit contract theory of pensions
than a man to have a pension. Of the unexplained portion of (see Ippolito (1987)) implies that, at any point
the gender wage gap, 10%-38% is due to unexplained differ-
ences in pension coverage. Finally, consistent with a screening
prior to normal retirement age, the present value
effect of pensions, women are paid more equally in the of the pension a worker receives (the "quit"
pension sector. pension) is less than the present value of the
worker's previous contributions. This quit penalty
I. Introduction screens out women with an above average proba-
counterparts received coverage.1 In section II, sector employers are less willing to hire workers
with a high quit propensity. Mobility reduction
possible causes of this gap in coverage and the
devices (such as pensions) are most desirable in
consequences for the gender wage gap are out-
lined. The empirical model and relevant statistics the presence of high turnover costs. The differ-
ence between the quit pension and the value of
for the data analysis are presented in section III.
previous contributions serves as a bond that the
Three results from the empirical work in section
IV are: (i) for a given set of observed characteris- employee forfeits if s/he quits prematurely. Given
some probability that the firm will fail, or cheat
tics, a woman is 11%-19% less likely to have a
pension; (ii) if women are represented in the on the contract by firing the employee, the opti-
tween 10% and 38% of the unexplained gap in complete insurance for the firm. In this case,
wages is eliminated; and (iii) controlling for ob- pension sector firms may be faced with relatively
high uninsured quit costs, causing avoidance of
served characteristics, men and women are paid
more equally in the pension sector. workers with high quit rates.3
These three reasons provide a rationale for
women being underrepresented in the pension
II. The Conceptual Framework
sector, even after controlling for observed charac-
Controlling for differences in labor market teristics. Henceforth, this is referred to as the
characteristics, there are at least three reasons to "unexplained" component of the gender gap in
expect that a woman is less likely to have a pension coverage. The remainder of the gap is
pension. The first arises from the fact that the tax "explained" by differences in observed character-
advantages of pensions rise with income and-that, istics.
as shown in numerous studies (e.g., Corcoran and This study's first goal is to determine how much
Duncan, 1979), women receive a lower return to of the gap in pension coverage is explained versus
observed labor market characteristics. Conse- unexplained. The hypothesis is that, for a given
quently, since women have lower wage returns to
characteristics they are less likely to have a pen-
2 Under a "legal" theory of pensions, pensions impose no
sion.
quit penalty. However, most of the empirical evidence sup-
ports the implicit contract theory. See, for example, Ippolito
Received for publication January 17, 1989. Revision ac- (1985), Kotlikoff and Wise (1985), Mitchell (1982), and Schiller
cepted for publication October 10, 1989. and Weiss (1980).
* Miami University. 3Pension firms have an additional incentive to discriminate
We thank Richard Ippolito, Daniel Seiver, members of the if employers complement pensions with efficiency wage premi-
Miami University Micro workshop, and two anonymous refer- ums (as suggested in Akerlof and Katz (1988)). According to
ees for comments. Partial funding for Professor Even's work Bulow and Summers (1986), firms that pay efficiency wages
was provided by a Miami University summer research grant. hire proportionately fewer workers with high quit rates to
1 Based on a sample of privately employed workers over age equalize the expected value of the shirk penalty across worker
18 from the May 1983 Current Population Survey. types.
set of observed characteristics, women have a sector decreases the estimated return to X in a
lower probability of being in the pension sector pooled sample of pension and nonpension work-
because of screening effects, lower wages, and ers. Elimination of unexplained differences in
pension firms avoiding workers with high quit pension coverage (thus increasing female repre-
rates. sentation in the pension sector) reduces unex-
The second goal is to determine how much of plained gender wage differences. The reverse is
the gender wage gap is due to unexplained dif- true if pensions decrease the wage return to X.
ferences in pension coverage. Numerous studies The effect of pooling pension and nonpension
use the Oaxaca (1973) technique to decompose workers on the unexplained portion of the gender
the wage gap into explained (nondiscriminatory) wage gap is demonstrated by calculating the
and unexplained (discriminatory) components. change in wages that occurs if unexplained dif-
The unexplained component results from males ferences in pension coverage are eliminated.
and females receiving different estimated returns Three sources of the unexplained gap in pen-
to a vector of productive characteristics (denoted sion coverage are screening, women receiving
by X). Moore (1987) argues that, within the pen- lower wage returns to characteristics, and pen-
sion sector, women pay a greater compensating sion employers avoiding workers with high quit
wage differential for a defined benefit pension rates. While it is impossible to sort out the rela-
plan since they have greater life expectancies, tive importance of each factor, whether screening
and hence greater expected benefits. This re- plays a role can be ascertained. If women receive
duces women's wage returns to characteristics lower wage returns to X because of higher quit
relative to men's, and increases the traditionally rates, and if pensions screen out quitters, the
measured unexplained gap in wages. gender difference in the return to X should be
This study takes a more general view of how reduced by pensions. Working in the opposite
pensions affect the returns to characteristics by direction is the greater life expectancy of women
recognizing that pensions influence the observed which increases the difference in the wage re-
relationship between productive characteristics turns to X.
(X) and wages in numerous ways. It is unclear, In sum, the study investigates three major
a priori, what the net effect is. On the one hand, questions. First, for a given X, are women less
the theory of compensating differences suggests likely to have a pension? Second, if the unex-
that workers will have to sacrifice wages in order plained difference in pension coverage is elimi-
to offset the cost of the pension. Thus, pensions nated, how much would the wage gap change?
reduce wages. Working in the opposite direction Finally, does pension screening result in women's
are three phenomena. First, following Salop and wage returns being more equal to men's?
Salop (1976), if pensions screen out quitters and
if a low quit propensity is a scarce resource, total III. The Model
compensation in the pension sector will be The econometric analysis relies upon an en-
greater. Second, as Akerlof and Katz (1988) note, dogenous switching regression model (Maddala
when turnover costs are high, firms will comple- and Nelson, 1975). It consists of a wage equation
ment pensions with tilted wage profiles (as in for the pension and nonpension sector, and an
Lazear (1979)), and efficiency wage premiums to equation that determines sector membership. De-
impede quits.4 Third, tax advantages induce
fine Wi as the observed wage; W1i and W21 as the
workers with unobservables that increase wages pension and nonpension wage of the ith worker,
to negotiate pensions. In contrast to the theory of
respectively; Pi* as a latent variable that deter-
compensating differences, these effects increase
mines sector membership; Pi as an indicator vari-
wages for a given X. able that equals one if worker i is in the pension
For the sake of illustration, assume that pen-
sector and equals zero otherwise; X, as a vector
sions increase the wage return to X. In this case, of observed characteristics that determine wages;
underrepresentation of women in the pension
and Zi as a vector of characteristics that deter-
mine pension membership.5 The switching re-
4 Gustman and Steinmeier (1987) find empirical evidence of
efficiency wage premiums for pension workers. 5X, and Z, may have variables in common.
gression model is written as computations for the male sample are made by
interchanging the f and m subscripts in equa-
Wli = X43l + uli (1.1)
tions (4) and (5).
W2i = Xi432 + U2i (1.2) To determine how differential pension mem-
Pi*=Zi + Ei (1.3) bership contributes to the gender wage gap, the
Pi = 1 iff Pi* > Ofollowing question is posed: If a worker with the
= O iff Pi* < 0. average characteristics switched from the non-
pension to the pension sector, how much would
The distributional assumption is that (u
her wage change? To determine this, equations
are N(O, E).
(2) and (3) are differenced:
The expected value of worker i's wage condi-
tioned on observed characteristics and pension E(WJjIX, Pi = 1) - E(WIlXi, Pi = 0)
status is
X -i( 31_2) + o1A,li + 2A2i (6)
E(WjIlXi, Pi = 1) = Xi431 + a)1Ali (2) where Xi is the sample mean, and the computa-
E(W2jIXj, Pi = 0) = XiB32-to2A2i (3) tion is made separately for each sex.
The wage effect of underrepresentation of fe-
where A1li f(Zi5)/F(Zi8), A2i f(Zia)/(l -
males in the pension sector is determined by the
F(ZiS)), f(-) and F(A) are, respectively, the stan-
following approach. First, a predicted wage for
dard normal density and distribution functions,
each woman is generated with the estimates of
and oj is the covariance between Ei and uji(=
the switching regression model as follows:
1,2).
A A A A)
The model is estimated using Heckman's (1979)
Wi( f, t3f, (f0
two stage procedure. The first stage estimates a
probit model of pension membership to obtain 5.
- Pr(Pi = 1Zi) [ E(WA
The second stage estimates wage equations with + Pr(Pi = OIZ1)[E(W
selectivity corrections. - F(Zi?3)[Xif31f + (
The first issue is whether women are less likely
to have a pension than men, cetens paribus. The + [i - F(Zif)J [ Xif3
following approach is taken. First, the probit (7)
model of pension membership defined in (1.3) is where Aki(&f) (k = 1, 2) are the selectivity correc-
estimated separately for males and females. Us- tions computed with the coefficients from the
ing m and f subscripts to denote whether an female pension probit, and (f = ( 2f) rep-
estimated parameter is from the male or female resents the estimated selectivity coefficients from
sample, the predicted fraction of women (hf) the female wage equations.
with pensions is The predicted mean wage iS7
Nf
Nf
Male Female
No Pension Pension No Pension Pension
TABLE 2.-SIMULATIONS OF PENSION COVERAGE male model, pension coverage increases from
Predicted Pension Coveragea b 51.1% to 69.7%. With the job-specific controls,
Without Job With Job the same simulation increases coverage to 62.0%.
Characteristics Coefficients Characteristics Characteristics The symmetric exercise for males supports simi-
lar conclusions. Worker characteristics do not
Male Male 66.4% 66.4%
Male Female 48.5% 55.1% explain much of the gap in pension coverage, but
Female Female 51.1% 51.1% job-specific characteristics do.
Female Male 69.7% 62.0%
To determine how pensions affect wage struc-
d Predicted pension coverage isthe
ture, computed as in
exercise described (1/Nj)1F(Z,g3k)
equation (6) is w
and k indicate, respectively, the characteristics and coefficients employed.
bThe pension probit is estimated with and without job characteristics performed. The results indicate that if the aver-
(union membership, firm size, and industry).
age male (female) worker switched from the pen-
sion to the nonpension sector, his (her) wage
would increase 15% (13%).9 Thus, pensions in-
lated pension coverage rates are presented in crease returns to observed characteristics.
table 2, with and without job-specific controls
included. For both specifications, the predicted
fraction of workers with a pension is equal to the 9 In an OLS regression of log(wage) on observed character-
istics and a dummy variable indicating pension status, the
observed fraction. Without the job-specific con- pension effect is 14% and 12% for males and females, respec-
trols, if women receive pensions according to the tively.
d The wage regressions include the following control variables: occupation (manager, professional, technician,
sales, administrative support, service, precision production, operative, transport operative, equipment operative,
and laborer), industry (mining, construction, durable manufacturing, transportation, communications and utilities,
wholesale trade, retail trade, finance and insurance, business services, personal services, entertainment, or
professional services industry), firm size (0-24, 25 to 99, 100 to 499, 500 to 999, or 2 1000 employees), region
(Northeast, North Central, South, and West), residence in an SMSA, union membership, tenure with current
employer, other experience (age - education - tenure - 6), schooling and its square, and the appropriate selec-
tivity correction.
bThe wage is predicted with and without job characteristics (union membership, firm size, and industry)
included in the pension probit.
and women receive more equal wage treatment in Error," Econometrica 47 (Jan. 1979), 153-161.
Ippolito, Richard, "The Labor Contract and True Economic
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(Dec. 1985), 1031-1043.
_____, "The Implicit Pension Contract: Developments and
New Directions," Joumal of Human Resources 22
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the pension probit, separate wage equations are estimated for Kotlikoff, Laurence J., and David Wise, "Labor Compensa-
each probit specification. Results are available upon request. tion and the Structure of Private Pension Plans: Evi-
11Since ln (W) is the dependent variable, our technique
dence for Contractual Versus Spot Labor Markets," in
generates a predicted value for the mean of ln(W), which is David Wise (ed.), Pensions, Labor and Indiuidual
exponentiated in table 3 to convert to standard units. Choice (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1985).
Lazear, Edward, "Why Is There Mandatory Retirement?" Related to Life-Expectancy-Caused Pension Cost Dif-
Joumal of Political Economy 87 (Dec. 1979), 1261-1284. ferences?" Economic Inquiry 25 (July 1987), 389-401.
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Defined Contribution, or No Pension?" mimeo (Aug. Labor Markets," Intemational Economic Review 14
1986). (Oct. 1973), 693-709.
Maddala, G. S., and Forest Nelson, "Switching Regression Salop, Joanne, and Steven Salop, "Self-Selection and Turnover
Models with Exogenous and Endogenous Switching," in the Labor Market," Quarterly Journal of Economics
Proceedings of the American Statistical Association 91 (Feb. 1976), 39-57.
(1985), 423-426. Schiller, Bradley R., and Randall D. Weiss, "The Impact of
Mitchell, Olivia, "Fringe Benefits and Labor Mobility," Jour- Private Pensions on Firm Attachments," this REVIEW
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Moore, Robert, "Are Male/Female Earnings Differentials