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The Gender Gap in Pensions and Wages

Author(s): William E. Even and David A. Macpherson


Source: The Review of Economics and Statistics , May, 1990, Vol. 72, No. 2 (May, 1990),
pp. 259-265
Published by: The MIT Press

Stable URL: http://www.jstor.com/stable/2109715

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THE GENDER GAP IN PENSIONS AND WAGES

William E. Even and David A. Macpherson*

Abstract-This study provides rationale for the underrepre- A second explanation is that pensions screen
sentation of women in the pension sector, and examines the
consequences for the gender wage gap. For a given set of
out quitters and women have above average quit
observed characteristics, a woman is 11%-19% less likely rates. The implicit contract theory of pensions
than a man to have a pension. Of the unexplained portion of (see Ippolito (1987)) implies that, at any point
the gender wage gap, 10%-38% is due to unexplained differ-
ences in pension coverage. Finally, consistent with a screening
prior to normal retirement age, the present value
effect of pensions, women are paid more equally in the of the pension a worker receives (the "quit"
pension sector. pension) is less than the present value of the
worker's previous contributions. This quit penalty
I. Introduction screens out women with an above average proba-

IN 1983, 53% of employed men over age 18 had bility of quitting.2

private pensions. Only 36% of their female


A third possible explanation is that pension

counterparts received coverage.1 In section II, sector employers are less willing to hire workers
with a high quit propensity. Mobility reduction
possible causes of this gap in coverage and the
devices (such as pensions) are most desirable in
consequences for the gender wage gap are out-
lined. The empirical model and relevant statistics the presence of high turnover costs. The differ-
ence between the quit pension and the value of
for the data analysis are presented in section III.
previous contributions serves as a bond that the
Three results from the empirical work in section
IV are: (i) for a given set of observed characteris- employee forfeits if s/he quits prematurely. Given
some probability that the firm will fail, or cheat
tics, a woman is 11%-19% less likely to have a
pension; (ii) if women are represented in the on the contract by firing the employee, the opti-

pension sector according to the male model, be-


mal size of the bond may result in less than

tween 10% and 38% of the unexplained gap in complete insurance for the firm. In this case,

wages is eliminated; and (iii) controlling for ob- pension sector firms may be faced with relatively
high uninsured quit costs, causing avoidance of
served characteristics, men and women are paid
more equally in the pension sector. workers with high quit rates.3
These three reasons provide a rationale for
women being underrepresented in the pension
II. The Conceptual Framework
sector, even after controlling for observed charac-
Controlling for differences in labor market teristics. Henceforth, this is referred to as the
characteristics, there are at least three reasons to "unexplained" component of the gender gap in
expect that a woman is less likely to have a pension coverage. The remainder of the gap is
pension. The first arises from the fact that the tax "explained" by differences in observed character-
advantages of pensions rise with income and-that, istics.
as shown in numerous studies (e.g., Corcoran and This study's first goal is to determine how much
Duncan, 1979), women receive a lower return to of the gap in pension coverage is explained versus
observed labor market characteristics. Conse- unexplained. The hypothesis is that, for a given
quently, since women have lower wage returns to
characteristics they are less likely to have a pen-
2 Under a "legal" theory of pensions, pensions impose no
sion.
quit penalty. However, most of the empirical evidence sup-
ports the implicit contract theory. See, for example, Ippolito
Received for publication January 17, 1989. Revision ac- (1985), Kotlikoff and Wise (1985), Mitchell (1982), and Schiller
cepted for publication October 10, 1989. and Weiss (1980).
* Miami University. 3Pension firms have an additional incentive to discriminate
We thank Richard Ippolito, Daniel Seiver, members of the if employers complement pensions with efficiency wage premi-
Miami University Micro workshop, and two anonymous refer- ums (as suggested in Akerlof and Katz (1988)). According to
ees for comments. Partial funding for Professor Even's work Bulow and Summers (1986), firms that pay efficiency wages
was provided by a Miami University summer research grant. hire proportionately fewer workers with high quit rates to
1 Based on a sample of privately employed workers over age equalize the expected value of the shirk penalty across worker
18 from the May 1983 Current Population Survey. types.

Copyright C) 1990 [ 259 1

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260 THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS

set of observed characteristics, women have a sector decreases the estimated return to X in a
lower probability of being in the pension sector pooled sample of pension and nonpension work-
because of screening effects, lower wages, and ers. Elimination of unexplained differences in
pension firms avoiding workers with high quit pension coverage (thus increasing female repre-
rates. sentation in the pension sector) reduces unex-
The second goal is to determine how much of plained gender wage differences. The reverse is
the gender wage gap is due to unexplained dif- true if pensions decrease the wage return to X.
ferences in pension coverage. Numerous studies The effect of pooling pension and nonpension
use the Oaxaca (1973) technique to decompose workers on the unexplained portion of the gender
the wage gap into explained (nondiscriminatory) wage gap is demonstrated by calculating the
and unexplained (discriminatory) components. change in wages that occurs if unexplained dif-
The unexplained component results from males ferences in pension coverage are eliminated.
and females receiving different estimated returns Three sources of the unexplained gap in pen-
to a vector of productive characteristics (denoted sion coverage are screening, women receiving
by X). Moore (1987) argues that, within the pen- lower wage returns to characteristics, and pen-
sion sector, women pay a greater compensating sion employers avoiding workers with high quit
wage differential for a defined benefit pension rates. While it is impossible to sort out the rela-
plan since they have greater life expectancies, tive importance of each factor, whether screening
and hence greater expected benefits. This re- plays a role can be ascertained. If women receive
duces women's wage returns to characteristics lower wage returns to X because of higher quit
relative to men's, and increases the traditionally rates, and if pensions screen out quitters, the
measured unexplained gap in wages. gender difference in the return to X should be
This study takes a more general view of how reduced by pensions. Working in the opposite
pensions affect the returns to characteristics by direction is the greater life expectancy of women
recognizing that pensions influence the observed which increases the difference in the wage re-
relationship between productive characteristics turns to X.
(X) and wages in numerous ways. It is unclear, In sum, the study investigates three major
a priori, what the net effect is. On the one hand, questions. First, for a given X, are women less
the theory of compensating differences suggests likely to have a pension? Second, if the unex-
that workers will have to sacrifice wages in order plained difference in pension coverage is elimi-
to offset the cost of the pension. Thus, pensions nated, how much would the wage gap change?
reduce wages. Working in the opposite direction Finally, does pension screening result in women's
are three phenomena. First, following Salop and wage returns being more equal to men's?
Salop (1976), if pensions screen out quitters and
if a low quit propensity is a scarce resource, total III. The Model
compensation in the pension sector will be The econometric analysis relies upon an en-
greater. Second, as Akerlof and Katz (1988) note, dogenous switching regression model (Maddala
when turnover costs are high, firms will comple- and Nelson, 1975). It consists of a wage equation
ment pensions with tilted wage profiles (as in for the pension and nonpension sector, and an
Lazear (1979)), and efficiency wage premiums to equation that determines sector membership. De-
impede quits.4 Third, tax advantages induce
fine Wi as the observed wage; W1i and W21 as the
workers with unobservables that increase wages pension and nonpension wage of the ith worker,
to negotiate pensions. In contrast to the theory of
respectively; Pi* as a latent variable that deter-
compensating differences, these effects increase
mines sector membership; Pi as an indicator vari-
wages for a given X. able that equals one if worker i is in the pension
For the sake of illustration, assume that pen-
sector and equals zero otherwise; X, as a vector
sions increase the wage return to X. In this case, of observed characteristics that determine wages;
underrepresentation of women in the pension
and Zi as a vector of characteristics that deter-
mine pension membership.5 The switching re-
4 Gustman and Steinmeier (1987) find empirical evidence of
efficiency wage premiums for pension workers. 5X, and Z, may have variables in common.

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THE GENDER GAP IN PENSIONS AND WAGES 261

gression model is written as computations for the male sample are made by
interchanging the f and m subscripts in equa-
Wli = X43l + uli (1.1)
tions (4) and (5).
W2i = Xi432 + U2i (1.2) To determine how differential pension mem-
Pi*=Zi + Ei (1.3) bership contributes to the gender wage gap, the
Pi = 1 iff Pi* > Ofollowing question is posed: If a worker with the
= O iff Pi* < 0. average characteristics switched from the non-
pension to the pension sector, how much would
The distributional assumption is that (u
her wage change? To determine this, equations
are N(O, E).
(2) and (3) are differenced:
The expected value of worker i's wage condi-
tioned on observed characteristics and pension E(WJjIX, Pi = 1) - E(WIlXi, Pi = 0)
status is
X -i( 31_2) + o1A,li + 2A2i (6)
E(WjIlXi, Pi = 1) = Xi431 + a)1Ali (2) where Xi is the sample mean, and the computa-
E(W2jIXj, Pi = 0) = XiB32-to2A2i (3) tion is made separately for each sex.
The wage effect of underrepresentation of fe-
where A1li f(Zi5)/F(Zi8), A2i f(Zia)/(l -
males in the pension sector is determined by the
F(ZiS)), f(-) and F(A) are, respectively, the stan-
following approach. First, a predicted wage for
dard normal density and distribution functions,
each woman is generated with the estimates of
and oj is the covariance between Ei and uji(=
the switching regression model as follows:
1,2).
A A A A)
The model is estimated using Heckman's (1979)
Wi( f, t3f, (f0
two stage procedure. The first stage estimates a
probit model of pension membership to obtain 5.
- Pr(Pi = 1Zi) [ E(WA
The second stage estimates wage equations with + Pr(Pi = OIZ1)[E(W
selectivity corrections. - F(Zi?3)[Xif31f + (
The first issue is whether women are less likely
to have a pension than men, cetens paribus. The + [i - F(Zif)J [ Xif3
following approach is taken. First, the probit (7)
model of pension membership defined in (1.3) is where Aki(&f) (k = 1, 2) are the selectivity correc-
estimated separately for males and females. Us- tions computed with the coefficients from the
ing m and f subscripts to denote whether an female pension probit, and (f = ( 2f) rep-
estimated parameter is from the male or female resents the estimated selectivity coefficients from
sample, the predicted fraction of women (hf) the female wage equations.
with pensions is The predicted mean wage iS7
Nf
Nf

,LLf(8f) = (1i=A /Nt) E F(Zi8f) (4) W f,O f) _(f/N) E H f(f,Of f


where Nf is the number of females in the sample.6 (8)
If female pension membership is determined
The consequence of the unexplained gender
by the male model, the predicted fraction of
gap in pension coverage for female wages is de-
women with pensions is
termined by computing the expected wage when
Nf female pension membership is determined by the
aLf(8m) = (1/Nf) E F(Zim) (5) male model. The computation is the same as that
it=1
in (7)-(8) except that 8m replaces 8f everywhere.
The difference [A/ifSA) -,uf(8m)] is the "unex- The effect of sex differences in wage structure,
plained" difference in pension coverage. Similar holding pension determination constant, is com-
puted by replacing (13f, (Of) with (Pm m) in
6The expected fraction of women with pensions is not, in
general, equal to F(ZfSf) due to the nonlinearity of the 7 Due to the nonlinearity of the model, the predicted sample
probit model. mean will not necessarily equal the true sample mean.

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262 THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS

(7)-(8). The combined effect of differences in to differences in observed characteristics is artifi-


pension and wage determination is obtained by cially low.
Means of selected variables are provided in
replacing (1f, af, (Of) with (fm' Nm' m). Differ-
ences in observed characteristics explain the por- table 1. There are four notable differences across
tion of the wage gap not attributable to pension groups: First, pension wages are 40% higher than
and wage structure. By reversing the roles of nonpension wages for men, and 32% higher for
males and females in the above computations, a women. Second, pension women earn 66% of
symmetric analysis is possible with male wages as pension men's wages; nonpension women earn
the reference point. 71% of nonpension men's wages. Third, for each
sex, average tenure is higher for pension workers;
and for a given pension status, average tenure is
IV. The Data and Empirical Results
higher for men than women. Fourth, the percent-
The May 1983 Current Population Survey (CPS) age of workers with pensions is 51% for women
is chosen as the data source because of its pen- and 66% for men.
sion information. Our subsample includes those To determine whether, for a given set of ob-
who are white, married, work 35 or more hours served characteristics, women are less likely than
per week, 25 to 64 years old, not enrolled in men to have a pension, a probit model of pension
school, and not a self-employed, agricultural, or coverage is estimated for each sex. There are
government worker. "worker-specific" and "job-specific" control vari-
The data have some shortcomings. For exam- ables. The worker-specific controls are: years of
ple, whether a pension is defined benefit or de- education and its square; 10 occupation dum-
fined contribution plan is unknown. Defined mies; 4 region dummies; age; the income of the
contribution plans are essentially tax-free savings spouse; and the number of children in three
accounts that do not penalize quitters. For most different age groups. These variables are included
workers, the pension is expected to be a defined because of their influence on the worker's pen-
benefit plan. Luzadis and Mitchell (1986) report sion demand. Education, occupation, and age all
that 85% of pensions are defined benefit plans. influence wages, and hence the worker's demand
However, since some pensions do not penalize for pensions. The incom'e of the spouse will in-
quitters, the total effect of pension screening in crease pension demand by increasing the family's
defined benefit plans will be underestimated. marginal tax rate. The number and ages of chil-
A second potential problem is that compar- dren will affect pension demand by altering the
isons of the pension effect across the sexes is family's saving behavior.
biased if gender affects the probability of having a The job-specific controls are union member-
defined benefit versus defined contribution plan. ship, the employer's firm size, and industry. Since
If, for example, all women have defined contribu- the job-specific variables are endogenous to the
tion plans and all men have defined benefit plans, pension choice, their inclusion may bias the re-
the screening effect would be larger for males. sults. That is, if women have lower pension de-
Such a problem is unlikely, however. Two studies mand, they will avoid the large, unionized firms
(Luzadis and Mitchell, 1986, and Gustman and that are more likely to offer pensions. However,
Steinmeier, 1988) report that the gender differ- since the reverse argument may be true (i.e.,
women may have lower pension coverage because
ence in the probability of a defined benefit versus
defined contribution plan is only 1%-2%. they are not at large, unionized firms), results are
Another shortcoming of the data is that the presented with and without the job-specific con-
worker's true amount of "other experience" is trols included.
unknown, though the actual number of years with For each sex, the control variables provide
the current employer is available. As a proxy for significant explanatory power, but do not explain
other experience, (Age - Education - Tenure much of the gender gap in coverage.8 The simu-
- 6) is used. Since this is likely to overestimate
the true value for females, a smaller return on 8A likelihood ratio test of the hypothesis that all coefficients
except the constant term are equal to zero is rejected at the
their "other experience" is expected, implying .01 level. Estimates of the probit model are available upon
that the male-female wage difference attributed request.

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THE GENDER GAP IN PENSIONS AND WAGES 263

TABLE l.-MEANS OF VARIABLES

Male Female
No Pension Pension No Pension Pension

Hourly Wage 8.92 12.19 6.12 7.99


Tenure 6.9 13.8 5.8 10.4
Union Membership 9.3% 35.4% 6.1% 22.1%
Firm Size
1-24 47.4% 8.4% 42.1% 8.5%
25-99 19.8% 9.8% 20.1% 10.1%
100-499 13.5% 13.5% 14.9% 17.2%
500-999 3.7% 5.5% 5.1% 9.2%
> 1000 15.6% 62.7% 17.9% 54.9%
Sample Size 1477 2916 941 983

TABLE 2.-SIMULATIONS OF PENSION COVERAGE male model, pension coverage increases from
Predicted Pension Coveragea b 51.1% to 69.7%. With the job-specific controls,
Without Job With Job the same simulation increases coverage to 62.0%.
Characteristics Coefficients Characteristics Characteristics The symmetric exercise for males supports simi-
lar conclusions. Worker characteristics do not
Male Male 66.4% 66.4%
Male Female 48.5% 55.1% explain much of the gap in pension coverage, but
Female Female 51.1% 51.1% job-specific characteristics do.
Female Male 69.7% 62.0%
To determine how pensions affect wage struc-
d Predicted pension coverage isthe
ture, computed as in
exercise described (1/Nj)1F(Z,g3k)
equation (6) is w
and k indicate, respectively, the characteristics and coefficients employed.
bThe pension probit is estimated with and without job characteristics performed. The results indicate that if the aver-
(union membership, firm size, and industry).
age male (female) worker switched from the pen-
sion to the nonpension sector, his (her) wage
would increase 15% (13%).9 Thus, pensions in-
lated pension coverage rates are presented in crease returns to observed characteristics.
table 2, with and without job-specific controls
included. For both specifications, the predicted
fraction of workers with a pension is equal to the 9 In an OLS regression of log(wage) on observed character-
istics and a dummy variable indicating pension status, the
observed fraction. Without the job-specific con- pension effect is 14% and 12% for males and females, respec-
trols, if women receive pensions according to the tively.

TABLE 3.-WAGE SIMULATIONSa

Assumptions Employed Predicted Wageb

Wage Pension Without Job With Job


Characteristics Coefficients Coefficients Characteristics Characteristics

Female Female Female 6.41 6.48


Female Female Male 7.26 6.69
Female Male Female 7.64 8.02
Female Male Male 8.63 8.49
Male Male Male 9.53 9.79
Male Male Female 9.00 9.43
Male Female Male 8.35 7.87
Male Female Female 7.39 7.59

d The wage regressions include the following control variables: occupation (manager, professional, technician,
sales, administrative support, service, precision production, operative, transport operative, equipment operative,
and laborer), industry (mining, construction, durable manufacturing, transportation, communications and utilities,
wholesale trade, retail trade, finance and insurance, business services, personal services, entertainment, or
professional services industry), firm size (0-24, 25 to 99, 100 to 499, 500 to 999, or 2 1000 employees), region
(Northeast, North Central, South, and West), residence in an SMSA, union membership, tenure with current
employer, other experience (age - education - tenure - 6), schooling and its square, and the appropriate selec-
tivity correction.
bThe wage is predicted with and without job characteristics (union membership, firm size, and industry)
included in the pension probit.

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264 THE REVIEW OF ECONOMICS AND STATISTICS

Given that pensions enhance wages, women's V. Conclusions and Summary


lower pension probabilities will partially explain
Three important results from our wage simula-
their lower average wage. The empirical results
tions are: (i) If the source of gender differences in
support this hypothesis. Table 3 presents simu-
pension coverage were eliminated, women's aver-
lated wages under alternative assumptions along
age wages increase by 3%-13%. (ii) For each sex,
with a list of the control variables used in the
pension coverage is associated with a significant
wage equations.10 According to the specification
(13%-15%) increase in the return to observed
without job-characteristics in the pension probit,
characteristics. (iii) The smaller unexplained wage
the gender gap in simulated wages is $3.12 ($9.53
gap in the pension sector provides suggestive
- $6.41).11 Changing female pension determina-
evidence of a screening effect that tends to equal-
tion to the male structure increases their average
ize the treatment of men and women.
wage by 13.3% (0.85/6.41). If women receive
More needs to be done to determine the causes
pensions and wages according to the male model,
of female underrepresentation in the pension sec-
their wages increase 34.6% (2.22/6.41). Thus, of
tor. In particular, this study provides no conclu-
the $2.22 unexplained gap in wages, 38.4% is due
sive evidence regarding whether women avoid, or
to differential pension determination.
are avoided by, the pension sector. However, it
As expected, the importance of pension deter-
does show that most of the gender gap in pension
mination is reduced when job-specific variables
coverage is not explained by differences in worker
are included in the pension probit. According to
characteristics, though job characteristics do ex-
this specification, switching female pension deter-
plain a substantial portion of the gap. Possible
mination to the model increases wages by 3.3%
explanations for this unexplained gap in coverage
(0.21/6.48). There is, however, an interaction be-
include: screening, unobserved wage differences,
tween pension and wage structure that increases
and pension employers avoiding workers with high
the importance of each. Switching only wage
quit rates.
structure to the male model increases wages
23.7% (1.54/6.48), whereas changing both pen-
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THE GENDER GAP IN PENSIONS AND WAGES 265

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