Project Planning & Scheduling

Dr. Yousaf Ali Khan

Department of Management Sciences and Humanities
GIK Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology
 What is a “Project”?
“ An individual or collaborative enterprise that is
carefully planned and designed to achieve a
particular aim”
EXAMPLES:
• constructing a new road
• building a ship
• designing and marketing a new product
• moving to a new office block
• installation of a computer system.
Objectives and Tradeoffs

Due Date!

Stay within Meet the

the budget Deadline--schedule

Meet the
specifications
 Management of Projects
 Planning - goal setting, defining the project, team
organization

 Scheduling - relates people, money, and supplies to

specific activities and activities to each other

 Controlling - monitors resources, costs, quality, and

budgets; revises plans and shifts resources to meet
time and cost demands
Project Management Activities
 Planning  Scheduling
 Objectives  Project activities
 Resources  Start & end times
 Work break-down  Network
schedule
 Organization

Controlling
 Monitor, compare, revise, action
 Project Planning
 Establishing objectives
 Defining project
 Creating work breakdown
structure
 Determining
resources
 Forming organization
 Project Organization
 Often temporary structure
 Uses specialists from entire company
 Headed by project manager
 Coordinates activities
 Monitors schedule
and costs
 Permanent
structure called
‘matrix organization’
 A Sample Project
Organization
President

Human Quality
Resources Marketing Finance Design Production
Mgt

Project 1 Project
Manager
Mechanical Test
Technician
Engineer Engineer

Project 2 Project
Manager
Electrical Computer
Technician
Engineer Engineer
 The Role of
the Project Manager
Highly visible
Responsible for making sure that:

 All necessary activities are finished in order and on

time
 The project comes in within budget
 The project meets quality goals
 The people assigned to the project receive
motivation, direction, and information
 Project Life Cycle

Feasibility

Management
Planning
Concept
Execution

Closure
Work Breakdown Structure
(WBS)
Level
1. Project
2. Major tasks in the project
3. Subtasks in the major tasks
4. Activities (or work packages)
to be completed
Example Of WBS For Building a
House
 Project Scheduling
 Identifying precedence relationships
 Sequencing activities
 Determining activity times & costs
 Estimating material and worker
requirements
 Determining critical activities
Purposes of Project Scheduling
1. Shows the relationship of each activity to
others and to the whole project
2. Identifies the precedence relationships
among activities
3. Encourages the setting of realistic time
and cost estimates for each activity
4. Helps make better use of people, money,
and material resources by identifying
critical bottlenecks in the project
Project Scheduling Techniques
 Gantt chart
 Critical Path Method
(CPM)
 Program Evaluation
and Review Technique
(PERT)
• Gantt Charts
– Shown as a bar charts
– Do not show precedence relations
– Visual & easy to understand

• Network Methods
– Shown as a graphs or networks
– Show precedence relations
– More complex, difficult to understand and costly
than Gantt charts
 PERT and CPM
 Network techniques
 Developed in 1950’s
 CPM by DuPont for chemical plants (1957)
 PERT by Booz, Allen & Hamilton with the
U.S. Navy, for Polaris missile (1958)
 Consider precedence relationships and
interdependencies
 Each uses a different estimate of
activity times
 Six Steps PERT & CPM
1. Define the project and prepare the work
breakdown structure
2. Develop relationships among the activities -
decide which activities must precede and which
must follow others
3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities
4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity
5. Compute the longest time path through the network
– this is called the critical path
6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor,
and control the project
 Questions PERT & CPM
Can Answer
1. When will the entire project be completed?
2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the project?
3. Which are the noncritical activities?
4. What is the probability the project will be completed by a
specific date?
5. Is the project on schedule, behind schedule, or ahead of
schedule?
6. Is the money spent equal to, less than, or greater than the
budget?
7. Are there enough resources available to finish the project
on time?
8. If the project must be finished in a shorter time, what is
the way to accomplish this at least cost?
 Constant-Time Networks
Activity times are assumed to be constant
Activities are represented by Arcs in the network
Nodes show the events
Notations used in calculating start and finish times:
– ES(a) = Early Start of activity a
– EF(a) = Early Finish of activity a
– LS(a) = Late Start of activity a
– LF(a) = Late Finish of activity a
 A Comparison of AON and
AOA Network Conventions
Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

A comes before B,
(a) A B C which comes
before C A B C

A A
A and B must both
(b) C be completed before
C can start C
B B

B
B and C cannot
(c) A begin until A is B
completed A
C C
 Rules
1. One node has no arc entering and defines the starting
event.
2. One node has no arc leaving and defines the finishing
event.
3. Each activity should appear exactly once as an arc of
the network, and lies on a path from the starting event
to the finishing event. Dummy activities can also be
used.
4. There should be a path passing successively through
any two activities if and only if the first is a pre-
requisite for the second.
5. There should be at most one arc between each pair of
nodes of a network.
 Drawing Project Networks
We consider an activity-on-arc approach.
We need a list of activities (constituent elements of a
project) and their prerequisites.
Example. Planting a tree
Description Activity Prerequisites
Dig hole A -
Position tree B A
Fill in hole C B
A B C
1 2 3 4
 Analysing Project Networks
Number the nodes so that each arc is directed
from a node i to a node j where i < j.
Let A be the set of activities
dij be the duration of activity (i, j)
n be the number of nodes.

Compute earliest event times, assuming that the

project starts at time zero and all activities are
scheduled as early as possible.
EET1 = 0
EETj = max{EETi + dij} j=2,…,n
(i,j)A
 Analysing Project Networks
Note that EETj is the length of a longest path from
node 1 to node j.
The project duration is EETn.

Compute latest event times, assuming that the

project finishes at time EETn and all activities are
scheduled as late as possible.
LETn = EETn
LETi = min{LET
(i,j)A j
- dij} i=n-1,…,1

Note that LETn - LETi is the length of a longest path

from node i to node n.
Determining the Project Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
 The critical path is the longest path through the
network
 The critical path is the shortest time in which the
project can be completed
 Any delay in critical path activities delays the project
 Critical path activities have no slack time

 Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed

without delaying the entire project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF
 Example
Precedence and times for Opening a New Office

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessors
A Lease the site —
B Hire the workers —
C Arrange for the Furnishings A
D Install the furnishings A, B
E Arrange for the phones C
F Install the phones C
G Move into the Office D, E
H Inspect and test F, G
Determining the Project Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Activity Description Time (weeks)
A Lease the site 2
B Hire the workers 3
C Arrange for the furnishings 2
D Install the furnishings 4
E Arrange for the phones 4
F Install the phones 3
G Move into the office 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total Time (weeks) 25
 AOA Network For
Opening a New Office
C
2 4
(Arrange for
the
furnishings)

H
1 Dummy 6 7
Activity (Inspect/
Test)

D
3 5
(Install the
furnishings)
 Determining the Project
Schedule
Perform a Critical Path Analysis
Activity Name or
Symbol

A Earliest
Earliest Finish
ES EF
Start

Latest LS LF Latest
Start 2 Finish

Activity Duration
ES/EF Network for Opening
a New Office

ES EF = ES + Activity time
Start EF of A =
0 0 ES ES of A + 2
of A
A
0 0 2

2
 ES/EF Network for Opening
a New Office
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5
 LS/LF Network for Opening
a New Office
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 LF = Min(LS
4 of following
8 13 15
activity)
13 15
0 4 2

B LS = LF
D – Activity time G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5 LF = EF
of Project
 Computing Slack Time

After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times

for all activities, compute the slack or free
time for each activity

 Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed

without delaying the entire project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF
 Computing Slack Time
Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On
Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical
Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes
 Critical Path for Opening a
New Office
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5
 ES – EF Gantt Chart
for Opening a New Office
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

A Lease the site A

B Hire the workers B

C Arrange for the C
furnishings
D Install the furnishings D

E
E Arrange for the phones
F
F Install the phones
G Move into the office G

H
H Inspect and test
Example
 Variability in Activity Times
 CPM assumes we know a fixed time estimate for
each activity and there is no variability in activity
times
 PERT uses a probability distribution for activity
times to allow for variability
 Three time estimates are required
 Optimistic time (a) – if everything goes
according to plan
 Most–likely time (m) – most realistic estimate
 Pessimistic time (b) – assuming very
unfavorable conditions
 Probabilistic Time Estimates
• Optimistic time
– Time required under optimal conditions
• Pessimistic time
– Time required under worst conditions
• Most likely time
– Most probable length of time that will be
required
 Probabilistic Estimates
Beta Distribution

to tm te tp

Activity Optimistic Most likely Pessimistic

start time time (mode) time
 Expected Time

te = t o + 4t m +t p
6
te = expected time
to = optimistic time
tm = most likely time
tp = pessimistic time
 Variance

2 (t
= p o– t ) 2

36

2 = variance
to = optimistic time
tp = pessimistic time
 Optimistic Pessimistic
Most likely
time time
time

1-2-3
2 4
(C)

1-2-3
1 Dummy 6 7
Activity (H)

2-4-6
3 5
(D)
 Computing Variance
Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time Variance
Activity a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2

A 1 2 3 2 .11
B 2 3 4 3 .11
C 1 2 3 2 .11
D 2 4 6 4 .44
E 1 4 7 4 1.00
F 1 2 9 3 1.78
G 3 4 11 5 1.78
H 1 2 3 2 .11
 Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by
summing the variances of critical
activities
s2p = Project variance
= (variances of activities
on critical path)
 Probability of Project
Completion
Project variance is computed by summing
the variances of critical activities

Project variance
2p = .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Project standard deviation

p = Project variance
= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks
Probability of Project
Completion
Standard deviation = 1.76 weeks

15 Weeks
(Expected Completion Time)
 Probability of Project
Completion
What is the probability this project can be
completed on or before the 16 week
deadline?
due expected date
Z= date – of completion /p

= (16 wks – 15 wks)/1.76

= 0.57 Where Z is the number of standard deviations

the due date or target date lies from the
mean or expected date
 Probability of Project
Completion
From Appendix I
What is the probability
.00 .01this project
.07 can .08
be
completed.1on .50000
or before the 16 week
.50399 .52790 .53188
deadline? .2 .53983 .54380 .56749 .57142
due expected date
.5 Z=
.69146 −
date .69497 .71566 /s
of completion .71904
p
.6 .72575 .72907 .74857 .75175
= (16 wks − 15 wks)/1.76

= 0.57
Where Z is the number of standard
deviations the due date or target date lies
from the mean or expected date
 Probability of Project
Completion
0.57 Standard deviations
Probability
(T ≤ 16 weeks)
is 71.57%

15 16 Time
Weeks Weeks
What Project Management Has
Provided So Far
 The project’s expected completion time
is 15 weeks
 There is a 71.57% chance the equipment
will be in place by the 16 week deadline
 Five activities (A, C, E, G, and H) are on
the critical path
 Three activities (B, D, F) are not on the
critical path and have slack time
 A detailed schedule is available
 Advantages of PERT/CPM
1. Especially useful when scheduling and controlling large
projects
2. Straightforward concept and not mathematically complex
3. Graphical networks help highlight relationships among
project activities
4. Critical path and slack time analyses help pinpoint
activities that need to be closely watched
5. Project documentation and graphics point out who is
responsible for various activities
6. Applicable to a wide variety of projects
7. Useful in monitoring not only schedules but costs as well
Trade-Offs And Project Crashing

It is not uncommon to face the

following situations:

 The project is behind schedule

 The completion time has been
moved forward

Shortening the duration of the project

is called project crashing
 Factors to Consider When
Crashing A Project
 The amount by which an activity is crashed
is, in fact, permissible
 Taken together, the shortened activity
durations will enable us to finish the
project by the due date
 The total cost of crashing is as small as
possible
 Steps in Project Crashing

1. Compute the crash cost per time period. If

crash costs are linear over time:

Crash cost (Crash cost – Normal cost)

=
per period (Normal time – Crash time)

2. Using current activity times, find the critical

path and identify the critical activities
 Steps in Project Crashing
3. If there is only one critical path, then select the
activity on this critical path that (a) can still be
crashed, and (b) has the smallest crash cost per
period. If there is more than one critical path, then
select one activity from each critical path such that
(a) each selected activity can still be crashed, and (b)
the total crash cost of all selected activities is the
smallest. Note that the same activity may be common
to more than one critical path.
4. Update all activity times. If the desired due date has
been reached, stop. If not, return to Step 2.
 Crashing The Project
Time (Wks) Cost ($) Crash Cost Critical
Activity Normal Crash Normal Crash Per Wk ($) Path?
A 2 1 22,000 22,750 750 Yes
B 3 1 30,000 34,000 2,000 No
C 2 1 26,000 27,000 1,000 Yes
D 4 2 48,000 49,000 1,000 No
E 4 2 56,000 58,000 1,000 Yes
F 3 2 30,000 30,500 500 No
G 5 2 80,000 84,500 1,500 Yes
H 2 1 16,000 19,000 3,000 Yes
 Crash and Normal Times and
Costs for Activity B
Activity
Cost
Crash

$34,000 — Crash Cost – Normal Cost

Crash Cost/Wk =
Normal Time – Crash Time
$33,000 —
Crash $34,000 – $30,000
Cost =
$32,000 —
3–1
$4,000
= = $2,000/Wk
$31,000 — 2 Wks

$30,000 —
Normal
Normal —
Cost
| | |
1 2 3 Time (Weeks)
Figure 3.16
Crash Time Normal Time