EDEXCEL A-LEVEL BUSINESS

Quantitative
sales
forecasting
Question 1
Below is a table of data showing the yearly sales revenue of a business. Using the data in the
table, calculate a three-year moving average.
Year Sales (£000) Three-year moving Three-year moving
total (£000) average (£000)
2009 700
2010 1,100
2011 1,000
2012 1,200
2013 1,400
2014 1,300
2015 1,800
2016 2,000

Question 2
Calculate the cyclical variation for 2011 and 2015.

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Quantitative Sales Forecasting

Question 3
Below is a table of data showing the yearly sales revenue of a business. Using the data in the
table, calculatea three-year moving average, the cyclical variation for each year and the average
cyclical variation.
Year Sales (£000) Three-year moving Three-year moving Variation (£000)
total (£000) average (£000)
2007 225
2008 240
2009 240
2010 360
2011 240
2012 340
2013 330
2014 380
2015 280
2016 420

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Quantitative Sales Forecasting

Question 4
Below is a table of data showing the quarterly sales of a business. Using the data in the table,
calculate a four-quarter moving average.
Year Quarter Sales (units) Four-quarter moving Eight-quarter moving Four-quarter moving
total (units) total (units) average (units)
2013 3 8,000
4 9,000
2014 1 11,000
2 12,000
3 9,000
4 10,000
2015 1 13,000
2 15,000
3 11,000
4 12,000
2016 1 16,000
2 18,000

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Quantitative Sales Forecasting
Teacher Answers
Question 1
Year Sales (£000) Three-year moving Three-year moving
total (£000) average (£000)
2009 700
2010 1,100 933.33
2011 1,000 2,800 1,100
2012 1,200 3,300 1,200
2013 1,400 3,600 1,300
2014 1,300 3,900 1,500
2015 1,800 4,500 1,700
2016 2,000 5,100

Question 2
2011 = £1,000 - £1,100 = -£100
2015 = £1,800 - £1,700 = £100

Question 3
Three-year moving Three-year moving Variation (£000)
total (£000) average (£000)
2007 225
2008 240 235 +5
2009 240 705 280 -40
2010 360 840 280 +80
2011 240 840 313.33 -73.33
2012 340 940 303.33 +36.67
2013 330 910 350 -20
2014 380 1050 350 +50
2015 280 990 360 -80
2016 420 1080

Average variation = (+5-40+80-73.33+36.67-20+50-80)/ 8 = -5.21 or -£5,210

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Quantitative Sales Forecasting
Teacher Answers
Question 4
Year Quarter Sales (units) Four-quarter moving Eight-quarter moving Four-quarter moving
total (units) total (units) average (units)
2013 3 8,000
4 9,000
40,000
2014 1 11,000 81,000 10,125
41,000
2 12,000 83,000 10,375
42,000
3 9,000 86,000 10,750
44,000
4 10,000 91,000 11,375
47,000
2015 1 13,000 96,000 12,000
49,000
2 15,000 100,000 12,500
51,000
3 11,000 105,000 13,125
54,000
4 12,000 110,000 13,875
57,000
2016 1 16,000
2 18,000

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