Remote Sensing Applications

for Drought Monitoring

Amir AghaKouchak
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of California, Irvine
 Outline

http://drought.eng.uci.edu/

http://chrs.web.uci.edu/
Space-Based Observations

Satellite Observations:
Rainfall Estimation

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of

Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information
using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)

PERSIANN System
Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using Artificial Neural Networks

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of

 Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information using
Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN)

PERSIANN System “Estimation” Products

Hourly Global Precipitation Estimates
Global IR
ANN
Satellite Data

(CPC, NOAA) High Temporal-Spatial Res.

Feedback
Cloud Infrared Images

MW-RR
(TRMM, NOAA, DMSP Satellites)
Sampling Hourly Rain Estimate
Error
Detection
Quality
MW-PR Hourly Rain Rates Control
(GSFC, NASA; NESDIS, NOAA)

Merging
Ground Observations

GPCC & CPC Merged Products

Gauge Analysis - Hourly rainfall
- 6 hourly rainfall
- Daily rainfall
- Monthly rainfall

Gauges Coverage

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing,

Center for Hydrometeorology University
and Remote of California,
Sensing, University of
Real Time Global Data: Cooperation With UNESCO

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of

PERSIANN Satellite Product On Google Earth & App

http://chrs.web.uci.edu/
App: RainMapper

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of

PERSIANN Extensions: Climate-Related

PERSIANN-CDR

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of

 01/01/1983
01/02/1983
01/03/1983
01/04/1983
01/05/1983
../../….

../../….

../../….

12/24/2012

12/25/2012

12/26/2012

12/27/2012

12/28/2012

12/29/2012

12/30/2012

12/31/2012

PERSIANN-CDR
A 30-Year, Daily, 0.25o, Global
Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of
Precipitation Climate Data Record
PERSIANN-CONNECT Exploratory Analysis

c) Search For All Storms During 2001: 106

b) Search For A Single Storm Events

2001-01-02 02:00:00

2001-01-04 06:00:00

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of

Global Integrated Drought Monitoring
and Prediction System (GIDMaPS)
GIDMaPS: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

http://drought.eng.uci.edu/

Meteorological Drought

Agricultural Drought
GIDMaPS: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

http://drought.eng.uci.edu/

Meteorological Drought

Agricultural Drought

Meteo-Agricul. Drought
GIDMaPS: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System
 Drought Definition and Indicators

Different drought indices based on different climate variables (e.g.,

Precipitation, soil moisture):

• Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

• Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI)
• Standardized runoff Index (SRI)
• Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI)

Precipitation (D-Scale) – Jan 2012 Soil Moisture (D-Scale) – Jan 2012

 Multi-Index Drought Monitoring

Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

pSPI  P ( X  x ) SPI   1  pSPI 

Standardized Soil moisture Index (SSI)

pSSI  P (Y  y ) SSI   1  pSSI 

Multivariate Standardized Drought Index

(MSDI)

pMSDI  P ( X  x, Y  y )

MSDI   1  pMSDI 

Where: X: accumulated precipitation;

Y: accumulated soil moisture;
φ: standard normal distribution

MSDI (Hao and AghaKouchak, 2013):

• Standardized index similar to SPI
• Improves drought onset detection
• A multi-Index for composite meteorological -agricultural drought monitoring
 Multi-Index Drought Monitoring

Sample time series of the 6-month SPI, SSI and MSDI for a grid cell in Texas (Location:
longitude 100 W and latitude 30 N).
 Multi-Index Drought Monitoring

1-Month SPI and SSI Derived

Using NASA MERRA-LAND
Precipitation and soil moisture
Data.
Multi-Index Drought Monitoring
 GIDMaPS: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

http://drought.eng.uci.edu/

Fraction of the global land in D0 (abnormally dry), D1 (moderate), D2 (severe), D3

(extreme), and D4 (exceptional) drought condition (Data: Standardized Precipitation Index
data derived from MERRA-Land).
GIDMaPS: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

a) Area under moderate drought

 GIDMaPS: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

• Empirical PDF Matching

• Mean-Fields Bias Removal
• Bayesian-Based Correction Algorithm Real-Time Data
• Parametric Fitting Correction

Global Precipitation Climatology Project + ~18 Months Real-Time Data

~ 32 Years Satellite-Based Rainfall Data
where G and S denote GPCP
and real-time satellite data
(here, PERSIANN and TRMM-
RT). The conditional probability
P(G|S) indicates the likelihood
of the measurement G given
the satellite observation S.

1950
1979 1998 Present
AghaKouchak A., and Nakhjiri N., 2012, A Near Real-Time Satellite-Based Global Drought Climate Data
Record, Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 044037, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044037.
 GIDMaPS: Global Integrated Drought Monitoring and Prediction System

9-18 Months Real-Time

May (1-month lead) June (1-month
(1-month lead)

1-, 6-Month Forecast

May lead) June (1-month
Prediction component is
45 45
45 45
based on a drought
persistence model which 40 40
40 40
requires historical 35 35
35 35
observations. The seasonal 30 30
30 30
drought prediction 2

component is based on two -120 -100 -80 -120

-120 -100 -80
-80 -120 -100
input data sets (MERRA and 0

NLDAS) and three drought ~ 30 Years Satellite-Based Rainfall Data

July (1-month lead) July (1-month lead)
August (1-month lead) August (1-mont

-2
indicators (SPI, SSI and 45 45
45 45
MSDI). 40 40
40 40

35 35 35
35
Ai+1(1)= Si-4+ Si-3+ Si-2
30 30
30 30
+Si-1+ Si +S(1)i+1
Ai+1(2)= Si-4+ Si-3+ Si-2 -120 -100 -80 -120
-120 -100
-100 -80
-80 -120 -100
+Si-1+ Si +S(2)i+1
......

Ai+1(m)= Si-4+ Si-3+ Si-2

+Si-1+ Si +S(m)i+1

1979 NOW
Improving Early Drought Detection
Using Satellite Observations
 Integration of AIRS Data into GIDMaPS

Precipitation
(MERRA)

Soil Moisture
(MERRA)

Relative
Humidity
(AIRS Data)
 Integration of AIRS Data into GIDMaPS

Precipitation
(MERRA)

Soil Moisture
(MERRA)

Relative
Humidity
(AIRS Data)
 Integration of AIRS Data into GIDMaPS

Precipitation
(MERRA)

Soil Moisture
(MERRA)

Relative
Humidity
(AIRS Data)
 Integration of AIRS Data into GIDMaPS

Precipitation
(MERRA)

Soil Moisture
(MERRA)

Relative
Humidity
(AIRS Data)
Integration of AIRS Data into GIDMaPS
Integration of AIRS Data into GIDMaPS
 Integration of AIRS Data into GIDMaPS

Probability of drought detection (i.e., fraction of detected drought) when

Drought Onset (DO) based on SRHI is less or equal to that of SPI (a),
mean lead time based on SRHI relative to SPI (months)(b).
 Summary

GIDMaPS provides both monitoring and prediction capabilities based on

multiple data sets and drought indicators.

MSDI leads to a composite product based on the joint distribution of

precipitation and soil moisture. It can be used for multi-index drought
assessment.

Real-time PERSIANN Precipitation data sets can be used for near real-time
drought monitoring and improving initial conditions for drought prediction.

PERSIANN-CDR data offers daily long-term data sets that can be used for
drought monitoring and assessment.

There are opportunities to integrate the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

(AIRS) relative humidity data into GIDMaPS to improve drought early
detection.
Research Team: Present and Recent Past

S. Sellars

Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing, University of and many more
 References

AghaKouchak A., and Nakhjiri N., 2012, A Near Real-Time Satellite-Based Global Drought Climate
Data Record, Environmental Research Letters, 7(4), 044037, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044037.
http://amir.eng.uci.edu/publications/12_RG_Drought_CDR_ERL.pdf

Damberg L., AghaKouchak A., 2014, Global Trends and Patterns of Droughts from Space,
Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 117(3), 441-448, doi: 10.1007/s00704-013-1019-5.
http://amir.eng.uci.edu/publications/13_Drought_Trend_TAAC.pdf

Golian S., Mazdiyasni O., AghaKouchak A., 2014, Trends in Meteorological and Agricultural
Droughts in Iran, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, doi: 10.1007/s00704-014-1139-6.
http://amir.eng.uci.edu/publications/14_Drought_IR_TAAC.pdf

Hao Z., AghaKouchak A., Nakhjiri N., Farahmand A., 2014, Global Integrated Drought Monitoring
and Prediction System,Scientific Data, 1:140001, 1-10, doi: 10.1038/sdata.2014.1.
http://www.nature.com/articles/sdata20141

Tabari H., AghaKouchak A., Willems P., 2014, A perturbation approach for assessing trends in
precipitation extremes, Journal of Hydrology, 519, 1420-1427, doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.09. 019.
http://amir.eng.uci.edu/publications/14_Trend_IR_JHydrology.pdf