Dato real

Hipótesis -1 0 1 2

Operating

Revenues 48,090.00 60,000.00 69,829.82 78,343.13

Units 30,000 32,400 34,992 37,791
% variación 8%
Price 1.60 1.85 2.00 2.07
% variación 15.52% 7.76% 3.88% 1.94%
COGS -23,680.00 -45,473.31 -43,654.06 -48,976.16
Gross profit 24,410.00 14,526.69 26,175.76 29,366.98
Gross margin 50.76% 24.21%
Promedio 37.49%
SG&A Expenses -2,774 -2,938 -3,723.96 -4,177.97
-5.77% -4.90%
Promedio -5.33%
EBITDA 21,636 11,588 22,451.79 25,189.00
D&A -11,400.00 -11,400.00
EBIT 11,051.79 13,789.00
Taxes (Ebit * tax rate) -2,320.88 -2,895.69
tax rate 21.00%
NOPAT (Ebit - taxes) 8,730.91 10,893.31
D&A 11,400.00 11,400.00
OPERATING FREE CASH FLOWS 20,130.91 22,293.31

Investments

CAPEX -60,000.00
NOF
Inventories 13,965.96 15,668.63 17,250.49
AR 5,819.15 6,528.59
AP 1,500.00 1,500.00 1,500.00
12,465.96 19,987.78 22,279.09
NOF VARIATION -12,465.96 -7,521.81 -2,291.31

UNLEVERED FREE CASH FLOW -72,465.96 12,609.10 20,002.00

PRESENT VALUE
Cost of capital 10% -72,465.96 11,462.82 16,530.58

NPV 22,332.57

IRR 19%
 3 4 5 6

86,252.47 94,056.48 102,073.80

40,815 44,080 47,606
Avg increase in units sold
2.11 2.13 2.14
0.97% 0.49% 0.24%
-53,920.67 -58,799.35 -63,811.37
32,331.80 35,257.14 38,262.44 Revenues* Avg gross margin

-4,599.77 -5,015.95 -5,443.51 Revenues* Avg (SG&A expenses/Revenues)

27,732.03 30,241.19 32,818.93

-11,400.00 -11,400.00 -11,400.00 Capex 60k, savage value 3k, 5 years
16,332.03 18,841.19 21,418.93
-3,429.73 -3,956.65 -4,497.97

12,902.30 14,884.54 16,920.95 Net operating profit after taxes

11,400.00 11,400.00 11,400.00
24,302.30 26,284.54 28,320.95

18,811.30 20,414.76 0.00 20% next year´s revenues

7,187.71 7,838.04 8,506.15
1,500.00 1,500.00 1,500.00
24,499.00 26,752.80 7,006.15 0.00
-2,219.91 -2,253.80 19,746.65 7,006.15 Sum equals zero

22,082.39 24,030.74 48,067.60 7,006.15

16,590.82 16,413.32 29,846.20 3,954.79 Present values of FCF

s/Revenues)