COLUMN THE AMERICAS

Delivering Change Won’t Be Easy for Latin

America’s New Wave of Leaders
James Bosworth Jun 27, 2022

Confetti explode over a screen showing photos of Gustavo Petro and his running mate Francia
Marquez after they won Colombia’s presidential election, Bogota, Colombia, June 19, 2022 (AP
photo by Fernando Vergara).

   

In 2022, it’s easy to be an opposition politician, party or political movement in Latin American
democracies, where the political environment is about as anti-incumbent as it can get.
Including the victory by Gustavo Petro in Colombia earlier this month, the parties of incumbent
presidents have lost the past 14 consecutive democratic presidential elections in the region going
back to 2018. Latin America has gone from a region where incumbent advantage was a major
factor in elections to one where incumbent parties almost never win.
Of course, there is an obvious catch to this phenomenon: Once the opposition wins, it is no longer
the opposition. As these newly elected figures take office, they face the same geopolitical
headwinds that battered their predecessors. In many cases, the same domestic political gridlock
that once helped them stymie their predecessors now works against them as incumbents.
Meanwhile, the high expectations for change they created among their supporters can’t be met,
leading to further disillusionment and anger at the political system.

Adding to the challenges facing the wave of left-wing presidents elected in the past two years is
that they will have to govern on “hard mode.” And that’s the single biggest difference between
them and the wave of presidents that governed in the 2000s, dubbed “the Pink Tide.”

Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez, Argentina’s Nestor Kirchner, Brazil’s Lula da Silva and the rest rode a
wave of high commodity prices and growing Chinese demand to finance their redistributive policy
agendas, bringing record numbers of people out of poverty and into the middle class. Right-wing
leaders, including Colombia’s Alvaro Uribe, also benefited from the widespread prosperity of that
time.

There are clear and important differences to how the various leaders of South America’s
commodity-exporting countries managed their windfalls in the 2000s. Unfortunately, with
hindsight, many of those governments misused their resources. Some spent all the money and
forced their countries into unsustainable long-term deficits. Some used their temporary
popularity boosts as an opportunity to repress political opponents and consolidate control, which
would benefit them later on when they were less popular. Many financed corruption schemes in
which they were personally enriched and their political allies made billions in ill-gotten gains that
should have contributed to the public good.

Despite all those behind-the-scenes scandals, Latin America’s economies grew, and poverty
dropped. More children went to school and ate three meals per day, and the average person was
generally better off than they had been in previous decades. The fact that governments could
waste money on corruption and pet projects and still have enough to spare to improve everyone’s
lives was a gift that was largely overlooked at the time.

Today’s wave of left-wing leaders doesn’t get to benefit from anything like that forgiving economic
environment. Nearly every country in the region languished in terms of economic growth
throughout the 2010s, and not one addressed their baseline fiscal challenges. Then the pandemic
hit, forcing millions out of work and back into poverty, and leading nearly every government to—
correctly—engage in additional deficit spending to protect their citizens. Now, facing inflation in
food and fuel prices, their budgets are too strained to provide additional subsidies or create other
social safety nets to protect the poor once again.

Unlike in the 2000s, Latin America’s new generation of

left-wing leaders will not be able to paper over the
mistakes they make with easy money.
Even if the region’s new crop of leaders were all exceptional, this would be a major governance
challenge. But the law of averages says they won’t be. None of them will be perfect. Most will
overreach, and some may even be quite bad at governing. But unlike the 2000s, this generation of
leaders will not be able to paper over the mistakes they make with easy money. Every error will
have immediate and harsh consequences for their populations, and be a public relations hit to
boot. Additionally, the politicians they just forced from office will likely delight in their own
newfound position in the opposition, from which they can toss criticisms at the new governments
with no responsibility to find alternative solutions.

Six months into office, Peruvian President Pedro Castillo admitted in an interview with CNN that
he was still learning on the job. After numerous setbacks to his political agenda, including multiple
unnecessary Cabinet changes, that was already obvious to most observers. But Chilean President
Gabriel Boric has also stumbled in terms of managing the country’s security situation since taking
office in March, putting a dent in his popularity and partially derailing his economic agenda just
months into his term.

As president, Petro will be the first left-wing leader in Colombia’s modern history, but he’s taking
office at an awful moment. When he hits early challenges, whether due to self-made errors or
events well outside of his control, he might blame his predecessors or neighboring countries or the
overall geopolitical environment. But Colombian citizens aren’t going to buy excuses like that,
even if they are valid.

Tamping down high expectations is hard for politicians who are elected on platforms promising
great change. Failing to deliver can lead to a term in office filled with trouble and, particularly in
Castillo’s case, one potentially shortened by popular protests and removal by Congress. To
succeed, this new group of left-wing leaders will have to deliver concrete and sustainable
progress, even if it is smaller than what they originally promised as candidates. Above all, these
leaders must demonstrate that voters’ trust in both political movements and the democratic
system as a whole is not misplaced.

Their success isn’t guaranteed, and pessimism is warranted here, particularly given the sobering
economic forecasts for the next few years due to the war in Ukraine. It’s possible the anti-
incumbent wave will continue for another five years. The political pendulum will swing again, as it
always does. Traditional and newly formed opposition parties will fight for power, using the easy
tactics of obstructionism and at times unfair criticism to their advantage.

Through it all, today’s newly elected leaders should remember that alternation of power is the
goal of a healthy democracy, meaning that someday they will be out of power. In the meantime,
they should work toward building systems that go beyond gridlock and reward cooperation for all
of the players in the political arena. They should govern with the goal of compromise, and above
all, they should remember how hard governing was when they are back in opposition in a few
years’ time.

James Bosworth is the founder of Hxagon, a firm that does political risk analysis and bespoke
research in emerging and frontier markets. He has two decades of experience analyzing politics,
economics and security in Latin America and the Caribbean.
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