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Topic 3

Introduction to the
Valuation of Fixed Income Instruments

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Topic 3: Outline

• Absolute Pricing
– Dirty price and clean price*

• Relative Pricing
– Law of One Price
– No-arbitrage Pricing*

• RJR Nabisco Case☺

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Additional assignment during this weekend

• Read the AER paper on the case of RJR Nabisco


– Uploaded at Blackboard
• Watch a movie – “Barbarians at the gate”

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Absolute Pricing --- DCF

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Recall
• Computing the price or yield of a coupon bond on
issuance date or right after a coupon payment is easy
C1 C2 C3 CT −1 CT
P= + + + + +
1 + y (1 + y ) 2 (1 + y )3 (1 + y )T −1 (1 + y )T
T
Ct
=
t =1 (1 + y )t
– The nth cash flow in the future will be paid exactly n periods
away

• What if the bond is traded in between coupon payments?

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Computing yields and prices when the settlement
date falls between coupon payments

• What happens when a bond is sold between coupon periods?

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The “dirty” price or “invoice” price is the
present value of the remaining cash
flows. It is the price the buyer actually
pays, including accrued interest:

C C C+F
tp = + +...+
y y y
(1 + ) w (1 + ) 1+ w (1 + ) n −1+ w
2 2 2

tp = Dirty price
C C
C = semiannual coupon payment
0 w 1+w
y = the BEY

w = (# days between settlement and


next coupon) 
(# days in coupon period)

n = number of remaining coupon


payments

F = face value

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Computing yields and prices when the settlement
date falls between coupon payments
• The quoted price is the “clean” or “flat” price. It can be
thought of as the price “as if” the next coupon were six months
away.
• clean price = dirty price - accrued interest
• accrued interest = (1-w)C
• w = (# days between settlement and next coupon)  (# days in
coupon period)
• In Excel:
• "PRICE" returns the clean price, given the quoted yield and other
information.
• "YIELD" returns the yield, given the clean price and other
information.
• "ACCRINT" returns the accrued interest, given dates and other
information.

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Day Count Conventions for Accrued Interest (AI)*

Actual/365 AI = C x days/365
Actual/360 AI = C x days/360
Actual/actual AI = C x days/actual days in the year
30/360 All months are assumed to have 30 days (e.g. there are
30 days between Feb. 9 and Mar. 9). If the first date is on
the 31st change it to the 30th. If the 2nd date falls on the
31st and the first date is on the 30th or 31st, change the
2nd date to the 30th.
30E/360 Like 30/360 except that if the 2nd date is on the 31st it is
always changed to the 30th.

*from Bond Market Securities by Moorad Choudhry, Prentice Hall

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Day Count Convention

• Coupon-bearing Treasury Securities:


– Actual/Actual

• Agency, Municipal and Corporate Bond:


– 30/360

• When there is no coupon payment, accured


interest is zero, the bond is be traded flat

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Example: Calculating Accrued Interest
Buy 8 1/2% Treasury note quoted at clean price P=$1010 (per $1000
face)
Maturity Date: July 1, 2018, Settlement Date: May 1, 2016
• How much interest must you pay per $1000 face value?
Date 2017 2018
1/1 5/1 7/1 1/1 7/1 1/1 7/1
Cash flows
42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 42.5 1042.5

1/1/16 - 5/1/16 = 121 days


1/1/16 - 7/1/16 = 182 days

Accrued interest = (121/182)$42.5 = $28.26 in interest.

• Total payment is $1038.26, the dirty price.


• Yield is 7.98%, calculated in Excel.

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Practice question (mid-term example)

• Suppose that a Treasury Note with a coupon rate of 7.4%


is purchased between coupon periods. The days between
the settlement date and the next coupon date is 115. There
are 183 days in the coupon period. The price of the T-Note
quoted on the WSJ is 107.500. What’s the dirty price of
the bond (assume a par value of a $100)?

(a) $106.125
(b) $108.535
(c) $108.875
(d) $109.825

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Answer

• The accrued interest is: $7.4/2 * (1 – 115/183) =


1.3749
• Dirty price = clean price + AI = 107 .500 +
1.3749 = 108.875

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Example: A WSJ example

The quote below is obtained from September 30, 2015 WSJ

Maturity Coupon Bid Asked Chg Asked Yield

5/31/2017 2.75 103.5938 103.6094 0.0313 0.57

Can you reproduce the Asked Yield given the other information?

Hint:
1. Assume a par value $100 for convenience of calculation
2. The settlement date is the next business date: 10/1/2015
3. The asked yield is the yield-to-maturity implied by the asked (invoice) price in
%, or 0.57%

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Example: A WSJ example
Days Calculation
• Step 1: Compute the Settlement Date 10/1/15
Accrued Interest Prior Coupon Payment Date 5/31/15
Next Coupon Payment Date 11/30/15
Coupon Payment 1.375
Days Between Payments 183
• Step 2: Compute the Days Past Since Last Coupon 123
dirty price as
quoted price + Accrued Interest and Invoice Price
accrued Interest Quoted Ask 103.6094
Accrued Interest 0.9242
Invoice Price 104.5336

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Example: A WSJ example
• Step 3: Find the BEY such that the sum of discounted cash
flows is equal to the dirty price
– Calculation done in Excel

IRR=BEY 0.57%
Payment Date 10/1/2015 11/30/2015 5/31/2016 11/30/2016 5/31/2017
Cash Flow -104.5336 1.375 1.375 1.375 101.375
Time in 6m Units 0 0.328 1.333 2.328 3.333
Discount Factor 1 0.999 0.996 0.993 0.991
PV -104.5336 1.374 1.370 1.366 100.424
Sum of PVs (0.00)

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A Side Point: Why bother quoting clean price?
• Take a 10yr treasury note with 8% coupon and assume YTM = 8%
• This bond should trade at par, except for the timing of coupons.
• The AI convention ensures that the quoted flat price is around 100

Bond Prices

105.0000
Increase because closer
104.0000 to coupon payment
103.0000
102.0000
Flat Price
101.0000
Invoice Price
100.0000
99.0000
98.0000
97.0000
10/15/2000

12/15/2000
4/15/2000

6/15/2000

8/15/2000

2/15/2001

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Computing prices when there are multiple
discount rates

• The Same Discounted Cash Flow Idea:

C1 C2 C3 CT −1 CT
P= + + + + T −1
+
1 + r1 (1 + r2 ) 2
(1 + r3 ) 3
(1 + rT −1 ) (1 + rT )T
T
Ct
=
t =1 (1 + rt )
t

• The discount rate rt is the yield on a zero-coupon


bond maturing at t (aka spot rate)

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Example
• A three-year coupon bearing bond has an annual
coupon of $50 and par value of $1,000. You
observe the following spot rates: r1=5%, r2=5.5%,
and r3=6%. What’s the price of the bond?

C C C + Par
P= + +
1 + r1 (1 + r2 ) 2 (1 + r3 )3
50 50 50 + 1000
= + + = 974.14
1 + 5% (1 + 5.5%) 2
(1 + 6%) 3

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Recession is Coming

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Relative Pricing --- No Arbitrage

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Arbitrage Profits
• Non-technical Definitions - Arbitrage profits are:
– Guaranteed profits earned at zero cost.
– Getting “something for nothing.”
– Getting a “free lunch.”
• Technical Definition - arbitrage profits are earned
on an investment when either:
(1) You earn a positive profit for sure today and pay at
most zero in the future.
(2) You earn a positive profit for sure in the future and
pay at most zero today.
(3) Your cumulative net cash flows are never negative and
are positive in at least one period
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The three-steps of arbitrage

1. Identify relative mispricing


2. Buy low (underpriced) and sell high (overpriced)
3. Construct CF tables and verify it is an arbitrage

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Arbitrage: Example 1

• Two treasury strips, M matures in one period, and


N matures in two periods.
– M is selling at $70, while N is selling at $ 80
– Both M and N has face value of $ 100
– Arbitrage opportunity?
• Yes!
• N is over-priced (why?)

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Arbitrage: Example 1 (continue)
• Strategy:
– Short N and Buy M
– Positive cumulative net cash flow
Points in time
0 1 2
Short N +80 - -100
Buy M -70 +100 -
Net Cash Flow +10 +100 -100
Cum. Net Cash Flow +10 +110 +10
• Implication
– Arbitrage opportunity will disappear eventually
– Arbitrage guarantees the time value of money

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Arbitrage: Example 2

• Assume two coupon bonds, G and H


– Both are two-periods, with face value of $100
– G has a coupon of $6, and H has $8 coupon
– Both are selling at face value
– Arbitrage opportunities?
• Yes!
• G is over-priced (or H is under-priced)

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Arbitrage: Example 2 (continue)
• Strategy:
– Short G and buy H
– Positive cumulative net cash flow
Points in time
0 1 2
Short G +100 -6 -106
Buy H -100 +8 +108
Net Cash Flow 0 +2 +2
Cum. Net Cash Flow 0 +2 +4
• Implication
– Eventually arbitrage opportunity will disappear
– Arbitrage guarantees that bond with higher coupon
must have higher price
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Arbitrage Example 3

• A two-period coupon bond K has $6 coupon, $100


face value, and is selling at par
• One period zero-coupon bond (strip) L is selling at
$94.34
• Two period zero-coupon bond (strip) M is selling
at $85.73
• Arbitrage opportunity?
– Yes!
– Bond K is over-priced (why?)

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Arbitrage Example 3 (continue)
• Strategy
– Short 1 K
– Buy 6% of L and buy 106% of M
– Positive cumulative net cash flow
0 1 2
Short K +100 -6 -106
Buy 6% of L -5.66 +6 -
Buy 106% of M -90.87 - +106
Net Cash Flow +3.47 0 0
Cum. Net Cash Flow +3.47 +3.47 +3.47
• Implication
– Arbitrage occurs if a particular security can be created
from a portfolio of other securities at a lower price
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Arbitrage Example 4
• Assume that there are two two-year coupon-
bearing bonds. Bond H has an annual coupon of
$6.25 and par value of $100. Bond G has an
annual coupon of $4 and par value of $100.
Bond H is selling at $94.50 and bond G is selling
at $90.
• Is there an opportunity of arbitrage? Why or
why not?

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Arbitrage Example 4 (continue)

• Strategy 1:
Points in Time 0 1 2
Buy 1 G - $90.00 + $4.00 + $104.00
Short 1 H + $94.50 -$6.25 -$106.25

Net Cash Flows $ 4.50 -$2.25 -2.25

Cum. Cash Flows $4.50 +$2.25 +$0.00

• Arbitrage Profit?

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Arbitrage Example 4 (continue)

• Strategy 2:
Points in Time 0 1 2
Buy 102.16% G - $91.94 + $4.0865 + $106.25

Short 1 H + $94.50 -$6.25 -$106.25

Net Cash Flows $ 2.56 -$2.1635 0

Cum. Cash Flows $2.56 +$0.3965 +$0.3965

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No-Arbitrage Pricing and Arbitrage Profits
• No-Arbitrage pricing principles is a popular way to
determine what the price of a security should be.
– Also called relative valuation.
– Particularly popular when discussing pricing of
derivatives.
– Often used intuitively to determine value (e.g. forward
rate example later).
– Most popular way for professionals in the “real world” to
value financial securities.

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No-Arbitrage Pricing and Arbitrage Profits
• Idea:
– Take a security you want to price or “value”.
– Using another security, or set of securities (portfolio),
with known price(s), mimic the payoff of the security
you want to value. Such a collection of securities is
called a synthesizing or replicating portfolio.
– Law of One Price: In the absence of arbitrage profit
opportunities, the value of the security you want to
price should equal the cost of the mimicking strategy.
• No Arbitrage => Law of One Price
• Question: Does Law of One Price => No arbitrage?

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No-Arbitrage Pricing and Absolute Pricing

• Absolute Pricing
– Strong assumption: exact cash flows and discount rate
– Strong result: THE true price
• No-Arbitrage
– Weak assumption: no-arbitrage holds
– Weak result: relationship (restrictions) among prices
• Can be boundaries
• Can be wrong if prices are wrong in a systematic way
– Violation: arbitrage opportunities
• Sufficient condition for suboptimal portfolio
• Maybe many ways
• Not necessarily the best strategy
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Arbitrage?

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Limits to Arbitrage

• Limits to Arbitrage
– Transaction cost
– Restrictions on short-selling
• Collateral is required and may be forced to liquidate the
position if large losses occur
– Different securities may have slight differences in risks
• ‘Near’ arbitrage opportunities

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Evergande Public Failure

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‘Near’ Arbitrage

• 2008 Earthquake

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‘Near’ Arbitrage

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On Homework

• “Lightly, caressingly, Marie Antoinette picked up


the crown as a gift. She was still too young to
know that life never gives anything for nothing,
and that a price is always exacted for what fate
bestows.”

― Stefan Zweig, Marie Antoinette: The Portrait of


an Average Woman

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When arbitrage goes wrong
- Long Term Capital Management
• Long Term Capital Management (LTCM)
– Hedge fund started in 1994 by John Meriwhether.
– Employed former Salomon Bros. Traders plus lots of PhD
economists and mathematicians (including 2 Nobel Prize-
winning finance professors, a vice chairman of Fed
Reserve).
– Idea: Find “near” arbitrage opportunities in fixed income
market. Use sophisticated math models to find replicating
portfolios.
– Convergence trading: “Suck up nickels around the world”

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Yield Curve Strategies from DB Fixed Income Research
1/22/2016
Regress Y7-(Y5+Y10)/2 on Y7

Relative to 5y and 10y, is 7y note too expensive or too cheap?

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LTCM --- Leverage

• In order to make more money, must take large


leveraged positions.

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Limits to Arbitrage
- Long Term Capital Management
• Example: Bet on convergence of European bond
market after introduction of Euro.
– German bonds were “overpriced” (yields too low),
Belgian bonds were “underpriced” (yields too high).
– Bet: Yields must converge.
• Problem: take large leveraged positions.
– What if yields don’t converge.

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Limits to Arbitrage
- Long Term Capital Management
• Fall 1998
– Asian financial crisis + collapse of Russian financial
system.
– Leads to “flight to safety” - U.S. and German bonds.
– German bond prices rise (yields fall), Belgian prices
fall (yields rise).
• Other LTCM positions
– U.S. Treasury (overpriced) versus Russian bonds
(underpriced).
– U.S. Treasury (overpriced) versus U.S. Corporate
(underpriced)
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LTCM

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Limits to Arbitrage
- Long Term Capital Management
• The rescue of LTCM
– Warren Buffett’s offer
– Bailout by a consortium of 14 banks and brokerage
firms (Sep 28, 1998)
– The curse of LTCM

• Aftermath
– JM started another hedge fund just a year later
– Merton and Scholes returned to teaching
– The consortium recover their investment completely

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What are the lessons from LTCM?

• Be careful of what you wish for --- there is a limit


to arbitrage

• Leverage is a double-edged sword

• You can’t float without liquidity


Read “When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of LTCM”

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Yesterday Once More

• Bill Gross known as "The king of bonds" is a founder of


PIMCO and ran the PIMCO’s $ 270.0 billion Total Return
Fund (PTTRX) until joining Janus on September2014.
• On April 21, 2015 he noted: “It's just a question of when.
It's certainly a trade that doesn't cost you anything in the
short term, because it doesn't yield anything and it has the
ultimate potential of a 10 or 15 percent (return) over a one
or two year period of time ... German bunds are 'the short
of a lifetime”

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Yesterday Once More

• European central bank (ECB) buy German Bund which


drives a negative yield (quantitative easing)
• Bill Gross managed Janus Henderson Global
Unconstrained Bond Fund and bet on the convergence of
yields between German bund and US treasuries
– Yield of German Bund is much lower than that of US treasuries
– Bill thought they should converge as the yield of German Bund is
negative and cannot go lower
• So short German Bunds and long US treasuries
• In 2018, US FED increased the interest rate

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Can fixed-income mis-pricing happen in real
world?
The Answer is Yes!

• The RJR Nabisco Case

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The Case of RJR Nabisco
Holdings Capital Corporation

• Outline
– Background (LBO and Junk Bond)
– Understand the securities involved
– Theoretical no-arbitrage pricing restriction
– Arbitrage strategy
– What happened?

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Based on

“The Relative Pricing of High-Yield Debt: The Case


of RJR Nabisco Holdings Capital Corp”

Robert M. Dammon
Kenneth B. Dunn
Chester S. Spatt

American Economic Review (1993), Vol 83 No.5, 1090-1111

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Leveraged Buyout (LBO)
• A strategy involving the acquisition of another company using a
significant amount of borrowed money (bonds or loans) to meet
the cost of acquisition.

• Often, the assets of the company being acquired are used as


collateral for the loans in addition to the assets of the acquiring
company.

• The purpose is to allow companies to make large acquisitions


without having to commit a lot of capital.
– It's ironic that an acquired company's success (in the form of cash on the balance
sheet) can be used against it as collateral by the hostile company that acquires it.
– For this reason, some regard LBOs as an especially ruthless predatory tactic.

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Junk Bond and Mike Milken

• In a LBO, there is usually a ratio of 90% debt to 10% equity

• The bonds are usually not investment grade and are referred
to as junk bonds (High-yield bonds).

• Michael Milken (nicknamed "The Junk Bond King" ) almost


single-handed created the market for Junk bonds during the
1970s-1980s.

• He was charged in 1989, paid a total of $900 million in fines


and still had over one billion dollars in personal fortune
intact.
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Background of the Case

• RJR Nabisco
– an American conglomerate formed in 1985 by the
merger of Nabisco Brands and R.J. Reynolds Industries
– was purchased in 1989 by Kolberg Kravis Roberts
(KKR) in the largest leveraged buyout (LBO) (before
2005)
– Depending on the source cited, KKR paid between $25
billion and $31 billion for the acquisition
– The LBO was featured in a book and a movie called
“Barbarians at the Gate”
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RJR Nabisco Bonds
• In May 1989, RJR issued three nearly identical debt
securities maturing in May 2001 to finance the
leveraged buyout
– Cash-Paying Bond [Cash Bond]
• Pays semi-annual cash 13.5% coupon
– Pay-in-Kind (PIK) Bond [PIK Bond]
• Pays semi-annual 15% coupon in cash or additional PIK bonds (at the
option of RJR) through May 15, 1994
• Pays semi-annual cash 15% coupon after May 15, 1994
• Additional PIK bonds issued in lieu of cash are valued at their face value
– Deferred-Coupon Bond [Deferred Bond]
• No coupons are paid through May 15, 1994
• Pays semi-annual cash 15% coupon after May 15, 1994
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RJR Nabisco Bonds
• Bonds Standings
– All three bonds have equal standing per dollar of claim in the event of
bankruptcy or default

• Sinking Fund
– 25% of the original principal amount to be retired on May 15, 1999 and another
25% on May 15, 2000

• Put Provision – only in case of a change in control


– Cash and PIK bonds can be sold back to RJR by the holder at 101% of par plus
accrued interest
– Deferred bond can be sold back to RJR at 101% of its accreted value (given by
the schedule that assigns value based on 15% discount)

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RJR Nabisco Bonds
• Call Provision
– All bonds are not callable prior to May 15, 1994, except in the event
of a change in control
– All bonds are callable after May 15, 1994 at the call-price schedules
below

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Pricing Restriction

• T*: May 15, 1994


• v: the dirty price; p: the clean (quoted) price
• c: Cash Bond, p: PIK Bond, d: Deferred Bond

• Before T*, both p and d are traded flat:


vtd = ptd , vtp = ptp for t  T *

• After T*, p and d become identical and both are better


than c: v c  v d = v p for t  T *
t t t

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Relative Mis-pricing

c
Cash Bond

3
1

d 2 p
Deferred Bond PIK Bond

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Cash Bond  Deferred Bond
• Consider
(1) The Cash Bond
(2) Deferred Bond + T-Strips mimicking coupons before T*

• Cash flows of (2) are larger and less risky than those of (1)

• No arbitrage => price of (1) < price of (2)


m
v  p + 6.75 qit  ptd + 6.75m
c
t
d
t (1)
i =1
th
qit is the price of a T-strip that pays $1 at i coupon payment date

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Cash Bond  Deferred Bond

• Large Arbitrage Profit --- $5 per $100 face value

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Deferred Bond  PIK Bond
• Consider a Hypothetical PIK Bond (pk) that always pays
coupon in the form of new PIK Bond
– Its face value grows by 7.5% every coupon-paying-period
– Let n denote the number of periods before T*
– At T*, you need (1.075)n of d to replicate pk, therefore:
ptpk = (1.075)n ptd
• In the actual PIK bond, RJR Nabisco has the option to pay
coupon as cash or new PIK bond
– The option is good for the company, therefore bad for the investor:

wt = ptpk − ptp = (1.075)n ptd − ptp  0 (2)

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Deferred Bond  PIK Bond

• Some mis-pricing

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PIK Bond  Cash Bond
• Combine restriction (1) and (2)

p p
+ w m
vtc  t t
n
+ 6.75 qit
(1.075) i =1

• Put a upper bound on wt --- Assume PIK bond trades like


Treasury so option value wt is maximized, then:
n
  n
 
p +  ( 0.075)  7.5  qkt + 107.5qnt  − 7.5qit 
t
p

i =1   k =i +1  
m
vt 
c
n
+ 6.75 qit (3)
(1.075) i =1

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PIK Bond  Cash Bond

• Large mis-pricing

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Overall, Cash Bond is too expensive

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Mis-pricing quite difficult to explain

• Difficult in Short-Sale?
– Doesn’t explain why someone will buy Cash Bond at
such a high price

• Small issue size, nobody notices?


– Issue size quite large
– Look at all the publicity around RJR LBO
– Several Wall Street firms indeed noticed

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Mis-pricing quite difficult to explain

• Tax?
– Explain at most 25% of the arbitrage profit

• Liquidity?
– No, the PIK and Deferred Bond are actually more liquid

• More bargaining power associated with the Cash Bond?


– Not enough

• Investor’s preference for cash?


– If so, go and buy T-strip + Deferred Bond

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Aftermath

• Mis-pricing largely disappeared by Mar 1991


– That was when the authors decided to make their
findings public☺

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