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Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000
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Transportation Research Procedia 27 (2017) 1105–1112
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20th EURO Working Group on Transportation Meeting, EWGT 2017, 4-6 September 2017,
Budapest, Hungary

Comparison Different Black Spot Identification Methods

Maen Ghadia*, Árpád Törökb
a,b
Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Department of Transport Technology and Economics,
1111 Budapest, Műegyetem rkp. 3., Hungary.

Abstract

The identification of road sections characterized by high risk accidents is the first step for any successful road safety management
process, considering the limited available resources. Although researchers started to study black spot decades ago, there are many
un-clarified questions in this field. In the identification process of black spots three main methods can be used: screening
methods, clustering methods and crash prediction methods. Many literatures and case studies were written describing each
method pros or cons. These literatures concentrate mostly on one type of road each time, although road characteristics (i.e. speed,
ADT) can highly affect the success and precision of the applied method. Therefore, the most important question to be answered
is which method for which road?. This question can be answered by comparing different applied methods for different road
types. However the comparison of different methods is still not adequately explored areas. This article aims to compare different
methods used in identifying black spot; the sliding window and the spatial autocorrelation for two types of roads differ in their
average speed, where speed is one of the important road characteristics which is still not adequately explored. The result shows a
preference to use the sliding window for identifying black spot in high speed roads and the lack of preference to use it in low
speed roads, and vice versa for spatial autocorrelation method, following accidents distribution pattern. And a result of a
weakness in applying Empirical Bayesian in high speed road is also included.

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 20th EURO Working Group on Transportation Meeting.

Keywords: Black Spot, High Speed Road, Low Speed Road, Accident Pattern, Sliding Window, Spatial Autocorrelation.

1. Introduction

* Corresponding author. Tel.: +36-70-55-15-674.

E-mail address: ghadi.maen@mail.bme.hu

2214-241X © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 20th EURO Working Group on Transportation Meeting.

2352-1465 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 20th EURO Working Group on Transportation Meeting.
10.1016/j.trpro.2017.12.104
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Today the most negative effects of building and developing transportation systems are related to road accidents with
live losses. The social and economic losses are another costs added to road accidents. Implementation of safety
measures are costly, although all of it has a positive net benefit, but restricted funds put limitations on the number of
sites that may be treated. Therefore, it is necessary to define the priority of the high risk sites and their related safety
measures in order to utilize the limited fund as effectively as possible. This article aims to compare two different
accidents' black spot (BS) identification techniques; the sliding window (SLW) screening method and the spatial
auto-correlation (SPA) method, considering crash data on two types of roads that have almost similar characteristics
but differ significantly in their average speed, and applying the empirical Bayesian (EB) as an evaluating third
method. In previous literatures, it was claimed that the length of road segments used for identifying BS as in SLW
method have a substantial influence in determining the real dangerous accident locations and consequently could
result in many false positive (i.e. a site involving in safety investigation while it isn't needed) or false negative (i.e.
not involving a site in safety investigation while it is needed). Therefore, different clustering techniques have been
developed in order to tackle the problem by identifying the minimum real length of BS locations. However, if we
consider the basic objective in identifying the road accidents BS, it is to find a point, an object or a small section in
a road that cause all of these dangerous accidents. Therefore, using clustering techniques can be more useful in
reducing the length of the study BS area by detecting the exact location of accidents' spatial aggregation. However,
this can only be accepted if we considered that all accidents in different road types occur under the same low speed
situations and resulted in more accident aggregation. But, unfortunately the situation is not so easy like that, where
accidents that occur from high speed vehicles can result in more scatter distribution pattern (as a result of high
speed) from the same causes, which reduce the efficiency of applying any clustering techniques. On the other hand,
using SLW of a fixed window length, for a low speed road types where accidents are more clustering around
conflicted areas like intersections, could have some other types of deficiencies; that an arbitrary length of the
identified BS may not cover any collision and resulted in partially false positive. Therefore, in this article we will
investigate each BS identification method (SLW, SPA, EB) pros and cons on two types of road with different speed.

2. Literature Review

Any success road safety improvement strategy firstly depends on identifying the real BS locations. Various method
can be used in identifying BS, each of it has a different accuracy. Over time, different BS methods have been
employed as identification criteria of black spot, trying to approach the real definition of BS. Wen Cheng and Simon
(2005) define the objective of BS identification is to "identify the locations in a transportation system that have
problems and its effects will be revealed through evaluated its crash frequency related to other similar locations". In
other words, accidents can be observed in both safe and unsafe locations, therefore the challenge will be to avoid
false positive and false negative in identifying the real dangerous locations. Elvik (2008) evaluate what type of
different black spot identification method shall be considered to minimise false negative and false positive for a
suitable reallocation of safety investments' budget. Road segmentation was another crucial issue for many
researchers especially who apply any screening techniques. OH Hoon et al. (2013) evaluate the performance of the
three screening methods using EB. He gave the road further segmentations based on the average annual daily traffic
(AADT) and number of lanes, resulted finally of that different locations of segments can result from different
definitions of endpoints, and that will affect on the estimated values regardless of which method were used.
However, the identification of BS is not exclusive for motor crashes. Aditya and Grembek (2016) study pedestrian
BS areas. They compare SLW with dynamic programing approach in identifying pedestrian black spots, and
resulting in the notion that; methods based on clustering in identifying black spots are more applicable, since
pedestrian accidents tend to be more aggregate in its pattern and can be determined in specific locations, such as;
junctions, pedestrian's crossing and midblock areas. The similar results were achieved by Long Tien and Sekhar
(2011) who apply GIS software to spatially identify pedestrian-vehicle crashes near bus stops. Benoit et al. (2003)
try to more understood empirically the spatial occurrence of road accidents by comparing the two well-known
methods in this area; kernel and SPA methods to gain almost the same results of efficiency from both of them both
in identifying accidents clustering locations. However, usually crash observation can be fluctuated from year to year
for many reasons, such as any improvement projects. Therefore, EB approach suggests using another measure of BS
based on the predicted number of accidents. Mc Guigan (1981,1982) propose the difference between the observed
and predicted number of accidents, while Hakkert and Mahalel (1978) define the BS as that have a higher accident
frequency than a specific prescribed expected level, and Mahalel et al. (1982) assume BS as the site which have a
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Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 3

maximum expected reduction in its total accidents by treatment. Hauer et al. (1988) also develop an EB technique to
evaluate the safety performance at signalized intersection. However, EB is considered state-of-the-art methodology
according to Montella (2010) who compare seven well-known BS identification methodologies and resulted in that
EB has the superior performances among them all especially that which apply sever and fatal crash frequencies
rather than total crash frequencies. Qu et al (2014) came to emphasise on that BS locations isn't necessarily
representing those with high crash frequencies that is crash severity should be considered in the evaluation process.
This article is ordered like that; firstly, a brief introduction and literature review will be given (or already given),
followed by a description for each BS identification method (SLW, SPA, EB) with the applied methodologies. The
next section will take a case study for applying each method on two types of road. And finally a conclusion will be
given. It is better to mention that "crash" and "accident" in this article refer to the same meaning.

3. Sliding Window SLW

Although SLW method faces with large number of critics, there are many extensive literatures, focusing on the
usage or development related to this kind of method giving it special importance. SLW could face some limitations
of being used a fix length window whatever the real extension of the real BS, rather than the problem of the rule
"first come first serve" that could result in a deviation of the identified BS from the real position. On the other hand,
this method can overcome other clustering techniques in some type of roads, of being able to identify BS locations
with less accidents' clustering pattern. The main objective of SLW and other network screening is to identify the
appropriate start and end points of BS locations along the road segments containing homogeneous traffic and similar
built-in environment attributes. In the general methodology of SLW the method require the user to input the window
length and the critical number of accidents per spot (i.e. critical accidents number, rate, frequency, etc.). Then, a
sliding window moves across the entire road network to identify segments that meet the criteria of crash's threshold.
When the criteria is met a BS location is identified, the search for another BS's is continued from the next segment
without overlapping. In this study the threshold value is calculated based on accidents frequencies, like that; firstly,
the scanned window moves along the road segments that have a similar characteristics and similar speed. The
number of accidents for each SLW (similar in length) is tabulated. Finally, the threshold value is calculated as the
average observed number of accidents for all tabulated similar locations with a level of confidence interval. Then the
window moves again along the road segments considering any location is unsafe if its observed number of
accidents exceeds the threshold value, as in the following equation (1):

CI * SD
xi  x  (1)
n
Where: is the number of crashes at any location ( ). is the average number of accidents for all similar locations.
CI is a confidence interval (99%, 95%, etc). SD is the standard deviation. And, n is the number of all measured
locations. The average window length can equal to 0.3 mile according to the Highway Safety Manual (HSM)
(AASHTO, 2010), but for ease the process a length of 0.6 mile have been taken, here. However, it is better to
mention that performance measures for both SLW and SPA are based on accidents' frequencies of fatal and serious
crashes, to have a similar level of comparison.

4. Spatial Auto-Correlation SPA

Autocorrelation literally means that if pairs of objects are close to each other they are more likely to have similar
values. Identifying BS in SPA is based on the spatial aggregation of contiguous spatial units (crashes) that are
geographically approximate. The assessment of SPA is based on measuring the degree of co-variation between
spatial units' values at each location and the nearby location using the global Maron's index I. Positive resulted I
index indicate a positive association between variables and a higher co-variation. While, a negative index I means a
negative association between variables, and (0) indicates no correlation between the variables. Statistically spatial
autocorrelation takes into account simultaneously discrete events' locations and values (attribute similarities) into
one index I. The statistical significance of Maron's index I can be calculated using z-score methods.
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Fig. 1. The process of segmentation the road into polygons to use it in SPA method (Hungarian M3 road)

However, sometimes global index fails in detecting the presence of clustering, like the case when equal amounts of
positive and negative clustering are existed, therefore local index is also important to detect these locations
separately. The local autocorrelation index is used to investigate the spatial variation and spatial associations
between approximate spatial units (polygons). In our case, the "Contiguity Edge Only method" is used for spatial
polygons' units. In this method neighbouring polygons that share a boundary will influence computations for the
target polygon feature according to their values (number of crashes). The methodology of SPA for BS is based on
the observed number of accidents per hectometre and spatial contiguity matrix, like that;

 Divide the road into small spatial units (polygons = 0.15 miles) and count the number of accidents for each
location hectometre as xi value. (See Fig. 1)
 Calculate the local index Ii for each location with values for all other locations. (See Equ. 2)

I i  zi wij z j (2)
j

Where: zi 
xi  x , z j 
xij  x here represent the critical number of accidents)

And, w
j
ij  1 (the weight here is row standardization)

The intensity of the dangerousness depends on the value of local Maron's index Ii while the black spot length
determination depends on the weight matrix wi. Therefore, the black zone can be determined for various lengths,
and the length also depends on the critical number of accidents for the contingent polygons.

5. Empirical Bayesian EB

EB method combines both the observed and predicted accidents' frequencies, for a specific roadway network, in one
statistical model, using equation (3).

N
 E w * N P  1  w * NO (3)

The expected number of crashes ( ) can be used to estimate the expected average crash frequency for both future
and past periods, if only both observed ( ) and predicted ( ) number of accidents are available. The weight factor
(w) in the equation (3) represent the degree of reliability in obtaining NP, and it is inversely proportion with its over-
dispersion parameter that measures the degree of disperse in NP for the different included study years. Therefore, if
the resulted NP's are more dispersed that will give it a lower weight in the EB equation (3), and vice-versa. However,
we can note that the crucial parameter in equation (3), to some extent, is NP. The predicted average crash frequency
(NP) can be predicted using Safety Performance Function (SPF) for the study period under a given conditions. SPF
is a regression equation that estimates the average crash frequency for a given site. The HSM developed a number of
SPFs for three different types of road: rural two way two lane, rural multilane highway and urban and suburban
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arterial. When calculate SPF the segmentation is also another crucial issue. The HSM is recommended to use a
homogeneous segmentation with a recommended length of 0.3 miles as an average. In our case-study a segment
length of 0.6 miles is used, unless the length of the homogeneous section is less than that, in this case the whole
length is taken as a one segment. The procedure of identifying BS in EB is based on using excess EB procedures.
Firstly SPF for the selected road is calculated using HSM's equation (4), after determining each road segment length
(L), AADT and observed number of accidents for each of the study years. Finally, the excess EM is calculated as the
difference between NE and NP, where the positive results refer to a black spot road segment.

exp  a  b *ln  AADT   ln  L  

NP  (4)

Where: a and b are regression parameters, its value depends on the type of road (number of lane and median type)
and type of collision. (Equation 4 is used for urban and suburban arterial road (HSM)).

6. Data

The data for this study consisted of road crashes in Hungary during the years 2013-2015. In the crash data of our
case study, we will combine the benefit of both crash frequency and severity by counting only the number of crashes
with high severity and effectiveness (higher weighting factor); fatal and severe injury crashes. We use these types of
crashes because we don't want to overemphasise sites with low frequency of fatal and sever but high total frequency
of crashes. On the other hand, it wouldn't be reasonable to assume that these crashes are randomly distributed along
the road. However, the reported crashes database in Hungary doesn't include PDO accidents. The data also include
the AADT as a shape file map for different road sections. The case study in this research compare two types of roads
with approximately similar characteristics (i.e. number of lanes), but fully difference in their average speed. For the
first type; Motorway M3 has been chosen which have a total length of about 281 Km and connect the capital
Budapest with Nyiregyhaza city in the northeast of Hungary. This road has an average speed between 90-130
km/hour. For the second type of road, an urban road inside Budapest has been chosen. This road is extended from
Isaszeg to Vác in the Best-side with a total length of around 50 km and average speed between 50-70 km/hour.

7. Case Study: Comparison between Sliding Window and Spatial Auto-correlation

7.1 Short Sections roads

For better illustration of the advantages and disadvantages of each method, lets take a sample of accidents on two
types of road as a case study.

7.1.1 Low speed urban road

Firstly, a short segment from urban road number (2104), as shown in figure (2-a), is selected. The figure (2-a)
contain (8) crashes, as indicated in a circled numbers. Figure (2-a) for a first glance indicate that these crashes seem
to be more clustering especially at or near intersection areas. The result of applying SPA method for this road
section (based on contiguity edge of 0.15 mile neighbour polygons, as mentioned in the previous sections), identify
two BS locations: SP1 for crashes (1,2,3,4) and SP2 for crashes (6,7,8) with a total length 0.3 mile and confidence
level 99 per cent for each black spot in the figure (2-a). It is better to mention here that the identified length (0.3
mile) could be smaller if smaller polygon lengths are used. On the other hand, the same figure (2-a) can give us also
some results from applying the moving window of length 0.6 mile on the same road section. The moving window is
used for a road segment regardless the presence of intersection. The BS location using SLW method, here, is that
which its observed number of crashes exceeds the threshold value that equal to the average observed number of
crashes for all the similar sections with same lengths. The threshold value here is 3 crashes. Figure (2-a) can reveal
two critical windows, but with many notes: firstly, the window (SW1) detect a BS within approximately the same
area of SPA black spot (SP1) but with longer length and some deviation which reveal the first disadvantage of SLW
for this type of road with low speed, that an arbitrary length of a critical window may not cover any collision and
result in partially false positive. By following the same window in the same road section another disadvantage can
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be revealed that the moving window failed to detect the second real black spot (crashes 6,7,8) identified by spatial
method (SP2) as a result of first come first serve rule in SLW and instead identify just part from the second section
as a black spot, where the next window (SW3) will start from the end of the critical window SW2 and can only
accommodate two crashes (7,8) and that do not satisfy the minimum crashes criterion.

Fig. 2. (a) Section of Budapest 2104 road contain 8 crashes; (b) Section of motorway M3 road contain 4 crashes.

7.1.2 High speed road

In comparison to the urban road, figure (2-b) shows a short section from the motorway M3 road. As a first glance to
this section, crashes (1,2,3) seems close to each other but with less clustering, and almost all the crashes are
distributed in similar pattern along the whole M3 road. For this type of road segment we will start by applying a
SLW method. The threshold value for this road is slightly different and equal 2 crashes, since this motorway have
some different characteristics than the urban road especially in the average speed. The threshold value is
recalculated, as described before, for the same window length (0.6 mile) but on M3 road. In figure (2-b) crashes
(1,2,3) are detected as a black spot inside the window (SW4) where it satisfy the minimum criterion. On the other
hand, by applying spatial auto-correlation on the same road segments (fig. 2-b) the used software gives "no
significant", or in other words, no black spots have been detected on this section.

7.2 Long Road Sections

To support the above mentioned theories it is better to zoom-out the upper view of roads to include and compare all
of its sections, this time. To do that, each road is divided into equal segments of length 0.15 miles, and each segment
is given an ID number, then number of crashes and AADT have determined for each segment. The mechanism for
applying SPA is based on using contiguity edge method of neighbour polygons (as described in SPA section) using
the same divided segments, which ease the comparison process. By starting with urban low speed road, figure (3-a)
describes the relationship between the resulted Z-score using SPA technique and the number of crashes along the
road segments. It is clearly that SPA method is almost succeeded in detecting most of high accident locations, where
accidents are mostly clustering in this low speed road around conflicted areas which ease to determine the spatial
locations of accident aggregations. On the other hand, SLW method may also identified most of these BS locations
but with lower efficiency resulted from the longer length of the identified BS in compare with the variable optimized
length used in SPA. Figure (3-b) shows the same relationship between Z-scores and number of accidents, but this
time for the high speed M3 road. It is hardly to find any relationship between Z-scores and the distribution of
accidents in this road. The less aggregation pattern of accidents is the reason that reduces any clustering technique
efficiency here. The proposed SLW in this road can be more efficient, where it can identify less accidents' clustering
locations using certain threshold value that represent (here) the average number of observed accidents for all similar
sections (especially in speed) with the same lengths.

7.3 Bayesian approach

In order to more understanding the above raised arguments that "each different BS method could be more suitable
for different road type with different speed", it is better to consult a third factor; which is the AADT, where the
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Author name / Transportation Research Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 7

number of accidents is proposed to be highly affected by AADT. EB is one of the most popular techniques that use
AADT in its parameters to estimate the expected number of accidents for a given road length. Figure (4) gives a
sketch of the relationship between the observed and predicted number of accidents (y-axis) with the AADT (x-axis),
of the urban and the motorway M3.

a b

Fig. 3. The relationship between Z-scores and number of accidents for consequent road segments (a) urban road (b) Motorway M3 road.

Fig. 4. The relationship between the observed and predicted number of accidents (y-axis) with the AADT (x-axis),
for (a) Motorway M3 (zero accident sections are excluded) (b) urban road.

The first thing to note from figure (4-a) is that the expected number of accidents (SPF) is almost decreasesing with
the AADT which indicates of high correlation between them. On the other hand, the observed number of accidents
is arbitrary distributed with less or no affection by the AADT, even in a high AADT values due to the high speed
(high flow rate), which mean that another factor could be more weighted in identifying BS and accidents distribution
in this type of roads, that put the speed factor on the top of the list since it’s the most feature that characterize this
road. Now, it is important to compare the above mentioned result with another type of road. Figure (4-b) gives a
similar comparison between SPF and AADT, but for lower speed urban roads. In this figure it is observed that the
observed number of accidents is more affected by the AADT and its almost decrease with it, although sometimes the
higher AADT could have a jam situation that results in a little lower number of observed accidents as indicated in
the figure. However, figures (4-a and b) can lead to a sub-conclusion that accidents on a high speed road can be
affected by speed factor more than AADT, which support the use of a SLW method for this road that is based on
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using a fixed window length regardless the AADT and considering the affection of speed by also overcome the
problem of the accident scattering pattern. Whereas, in urban road where the speed is low the AADT factor is more
important where a higher AADT values usually have a higher accidents number especially within a small area like
intersections.

8. Conclusion

Based on the results obtained from the case studies and overall comparison, it can be summarized and concluded
that; dangerous locations on two types of roads had been compared to discover the affection of the speed factor on
the efficiency of each selected BS analysis method. Two types of BS identification methods had been selected; the
first is the SPA method which is based on a spatial identification of accidents clustering locations, and the second is
the SLW screening method. It was noted that in low speed urban road accidents tend to be more aggregated around
real dangerous points or conflict areas like, intersections or pedestrian crossing locations. These areas can be
identified using local and global Maron's indexes as in the applied SPA method. Therefore, SPA can overcome SLW
in this type of roads of being more applicable and flexible in identifying BS lengths of clustering accident locations
more efficiently. Whereas, in the case of a high speed road types, like a motorway M3 road example; crashes
distribution pattern are seem to be more scattered from the exact dangerous point which make it difficult for spatial
method to identify any real black spot using clustering technique, and allow sectioning SLW method to be able of
identifying BS more efficiently, regardless its fixed length, by using a suitable threshold value equal to the average
observed number of accidents for all similar locations. EB approach is also applied to examine both roads as a third
method and its support to some extent the above mentioned results. EB shows a low correlation between the
predicted number of accidents and the observed number, in high speed M3 road, which gave an indication that in
this high speed road another factor may have a higher weight in EB equation rather than AADT, and as speed is the
special characteristic of this road it is supposed to be this factor. Therefore, it is recommended to consider a speed as
a third factor in the EB equation. However, future works with more detailed data about the average speed in each
road section may help in developing a comprehensive BS identification method for all types of roads benefit from
SLW, SPA and EB maybe by characterising road sections based on a distribution function (e.g. normal distribution)
as if an accident would be represented by a line instead of applying point objects, with the ability to identify the
interval of the distribution function around allocation of an accident depending on the speed sensitivity and the
probability of an accident for the pre-defined distribution function.

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