Int. J. Pres. Vrs.

d Piping 69 (1YYh) 161-167

Copyright 0 1996 Elsevier Science Limited
Printed in Northern Ireland. All rights reserved
ELSEVIER 0308-0161(95)00128-X 030X-0161/96/$15.00

A new creep lifetime prediction method: the

C-project concept
Y. D. Li
Thermal Power Research Instiirrtc, Ministry of Power Industry, 80 Xing Qirlg Street, Xi’an 7100.12. China

(Received 2 November 1995: accepted 10 November 1995)

Many mathematical models have been put forward to evaluate the creep
remanent life of high temperature componentsin thermal power plants. Most
of theseolder creep life assessmentmethodsgive evaluationsby extrapolation
of removal sampletest. Uncertainties arise from: the theoretical basiswhich
doesnot delineate the whole creep process;the removal sampletest can not be
representativeof the whole component;stressstate difference betweenthe test
specimenand the real component; and the data scatter of material properties.
To avoid theseuncertainties a new method, called the C-projection concept, is
derived from the &projection concept, which describesthe whole creep
process.The method basedon the C-projection concept gives a more accurate
creep life estimation of the consideredcomponent by making direct use of
the actual dimensional measurementsof the component of interest. A life
assessment of a steampipe systemin an old Chinesepower plant is given as
an example of application. Combining this C-projection concept, replica
technique, and stressanalysis,a software called Creep Life Predictor is being
designed.Copyright 0 1996’Elsevier ScienceLtd.

1 INTRODUCTION removal sample tests have been done to extend

Since 1910 the creep problem has been
emphasised in high temperature components,
especially in thermal power plant, chemical and
mechanical industries. From 1910 to 1956’” all
those descriptions of creep curves took account
of the first two stages, the primary stage and
secondary stage according to the classification of
traditional creep theory. Complete description
including whole creep curves had not been put
forward until 1982.‘-13 In engineering applications
some methods consider the secondary stage as a
constant creep rate process without taking
account of the first and tertiary stages. The most
extensively used removal sample test from an
operated component is an engineering way of
determining the loading ability of a component.
If the extrapolation rupture stress of the removal
specimen is larger than allowable stress a residual
life of another 100000 h is given to the
component of interest.
In some old Chinese power plants several
161
the life of steam piping operating beyond its
design life. However, no one knows its real life
because of the extrapolation to the limit of
100000 h. The root causes of the situation are a
lack of a sound perfect creep theoretical basis
and this emerges as the operating condition is
complete. Engineers have to extend the com-
ponents’ life step by step for the sake of safety.
Though many useful engineering methods such as
replica have been developed to determine the
creep damage degree of a component qualita-
tively (and satisfactory results are obtained in
practical application) it is imperative to find a
way of determining the operating life of a
component quantitatively. Fortunately, during
the last decade a method called the 8-projec-
tion concept has been developed to describe
general creep behaviour and has proved to be in
good agreement with experimental results.‘-‘”
Here a new life prediction method called the
C-projection concept based on the real be-
haviours of the component of interest is derived
162
from the @projection concept. An application in
a Chinese power plant is also demonstrated.
2 THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT
2.1 Classical theories
Creep is known as time-dependent thermally
assisted deformation of components under load
(or stress). Even under constant load (or stress)
the material of a component can deform slowly
and continuously, and eventually fail. From the
phenomenon of creep we can describe the creep
strain E as a function of time t, operational
temperature T, and applied stress (load) (T, i.e.
& = fk T, 4 (1)
Variables E, t, T and cr construct a four-
dimensional space. Scientists and engineers have
persistently endeavoured to find the real function
expression of eqn (1). A well-known parameter
method which excludes the creep strain E and
takes stress cr as a parameter function is the
Larson-Miller parameter. In the L-M parameter
temperature T and rupture time t, were taken as
a group and described as a parameter of stress (T.
The L-M parameter is written as:
P(a) = T(log t, + K,) (2)
where K, is a constant. Equation (2) has been
widely used in engineering, but two problems
arise while applying it to solve practical
problems. The first is that the values of the
parameter at applied stresses must be known.
Another problem is that to obtain the values of
parameter P(a) engineers either do a removal
test or take the values of a similar material. Both
of them will inevitably cause some error because
of the representative suspicion of sample taking
0 tm
Time I
Fig. 1. Creep curves in the et plane.
Y. D. Li
and the scatter of quotation data from a similar
material.
Another way of describing eqn (1) is mapping
it into a two-dimensional problem (in the r-t
plane) by assuming that the stress u and
temperature T for a specific component are
constant. With this assumption eqn (1) is
rewritten as
E = f(t, T,, 4 = cp(t> (3)
In the E-t plane general creep curves have shapes
as shown in Fig. 1. Three stages have been
classified according to the traditional three-stage
categories, where OA, AB and BC correspond to
stages I, II and III, respectively. OA and BC are
called the primary and tertiary stages. AB is the
secondary stage or the steady creep stage with a
constant creep rate. By the three-stage
classifications many equations have been publ-
ished to describe the first two stages, with special
emphasis on stage II. They have the following
three patterns:2,6
& = E, + C,P3it (4)
.s = .5, + C,[l - exp(-C,t)] + rit
(5)
E = E, + $ In{1 + C,[l - exp( - C,t)]} + et (6)
4
All those equations define the first two stages up
to the point B in Fig. 1. No description covering
all creep processes including the tertiary stage up
to rupture was proposed until 1982. In engineer-
ing applications the Monkman-Grant
correlation,5’6 which considers the product of the
minimum creep rate .s, and rupture time t, as a
constant, is widely used to predict lifetime. A
simplification of the Monkman-Grant correlation
is:
itt, = constant (7)
It seems that if the minimum creep rate &,,, is
known the rupture time t, can easily be obtained.
Things are not always so simple in practical
engineering since there are commonly some
uncertain factors and not enough real component
failure evidence to support eqn (7). Other
methods such as hardness measurement14 are
complicated and a little more costly. In order to
take as many practical factors into account as
possible a new method with the basis of full creep
process description and the actual behaviours of
components is presented in this paper.
 A new creep lifetime prediction
2.2 Intrinsic features of general creep curves
Irrespective of those few negative creep curves’”
which are seldom presented in engineering
practice, most creep curves are shaped as shown
in Fig. 1 and have the following four salient
characteristics:
1. Creep strain I is an increasing function of
time t while applied stress u and telmpera-
ture T are constant.
2. There is one and only one point (t,,,?e,) of
inflection in a creep curve which indicates
the creep mechanism change.
3. Creep strain rate decreases from initiation
to the time t,. This implies that change
occurs in the microstructure of the material
and no void initiation process develops
before c,. The creep curve is concave
downwards.
4. Creep strain rate increases dramatically
after time t,. This shows that micro-void
initiation, coalescence, micro-cracking and
rupture eventually take place and. creep
curve becomes concave upwards.
A perfect creep description should include all the
above four inherent features. The C-projection
concept and its basis-the @projection concept-
include all the above four features. Thus the new
method suggested in this paper is a model-based
method, although the classical life prediction
methods are just data fits.
2.2 Current method
A full description of general creep curves
incuding all salient creep features mentioned in
the last section is the &projection concept put
forward by Evans et aL7 in 1982. They express the
creep strain F as a function of time t by the
following equation:
E = 8, [l - exp( - &t)] + &[exp(8,t) - l]
where 0, (i = 1,2,3,4) are functions of stress (T
and temperature T defined by:
log,,, 0, = a, + b,a + c,T + d,aT
where i = 1, 23, 4; a;, b;, cj and dj are constants
related to materials. With this e-projection most
full creep curves can be modelled. Testing eqn
method 163
(8), we find that every inherent characteristic
mentioned in the last section is included.
Differentiating eqn (7), we get the first, second
and third differentiation of strain I
de
; = 8, e2 exp(-8,t) + 03e4 exp(@,t) (10)
d2E
-= -e,e;exp(-e,t) + e,e:exp(e,t) (11)
dt2
d”E
dr-l = e,e: exp(-8,t) + e3e: exp(e,t) (12)
Since Bj are positive, as given in eqn (9), deldt is
non-negative. Thus E is an increasing function of
time t as the definition of creep. Letting
d2&/dt2 = 0, a minimum and the only one
minimum creep rate point
1 ln -4 0:
f,=-
e,+ 8,’ e,e:
is found. This is the only point of inflection
because d3.s/dt3 is not zero at this point. This
point of inflection pertains to the mechanism
change from microstructure to creep damage
with void formation. The other two characteris-
tics are easily proved. From this full creep curve
description Li and Li’6-‘x have derived a
C-projection concept which can be applied
directly to the actual component. This C-
projection concept is mathematically derived
from the e-projection concept which is hard to
apply to an actual structure. From the fact that
every high temperature component is tested at its
operational loading and temperature histories,
the lifetime could be found from the dimensional
change measurements. These dimensional meas-
urements are the real behaviours of the actual
component of interest. If enough dimensional
data has been obtained for the component under
consideration; the creep life of the component
can be estimated by solving the following
(8) equation provided the rupture strain of the
material, E,, is known.
z
E = I, = c C;t’ (14)
i=o
(9)
where Cj are coefficients related to the
geometries, operating conditions and the material
of the components considered, t is the operating
time and i is an index. In applications, an odd
164
ordered polynomial is taken as an approximation.
Equation (14) is rewritten as:
2Nt I
E, = C Cjti = &limit (15)
The error between eqns (14) and (15)
described by:
@,(- e2t)2N+2
R2?++2 = -
[2(N + l)]! e-ezpl
+ wb~)2N+2 es,p,
[2(Jv+1)]! ’ OCPC1
From eqn (16) the approximation of eqn (14)
must be an odd powered one to make the error
as small as possible. With the aid of a computer
an odd powered polynomial can be used to
predict the creep life of components if the creep
deformation of the components has been
obtained. To obtain a better estimate the
dimensional measurements (t,, r,) should be high
enough and cover a period of time not less than
t, + 50 000 h). For low alloy ferritic steels used
in a thermal power plant the first 100 000-150 000
hours dimensional changes must be well recorded
for the use of the C-projection method. The more
and longer time data you get from the
component of interest, the better prediction you
can obtain from the C-projection method.
3 APPLICATION PROCEDURES
In order to get better results from the
C-projection method the following procedures
are necessary:
1. Stress analysis is needed to determine the
critical sections (locations) of a component.
2. Creep pips must be attached to these
critical locations found in procedure 1.
3. During every off-load outage the dimen-
sional changes of these critical locations
should be periodically measured up to the
time t, + 50 000 h.
Table 1. The limiting
Initial ellipticity E,, (%)
E,,> I.4
l-4 > E,,> O-8
E,,< 0.8
Y. D. L.i
The pairs of the dimensional change data
(tj, &j) should be no less than eight.
Coefficients Cj must be calculated from
these obtained dimensional change data.
Constructing eqn (15), let &limitbe a given
is limit strain, and solve it to give the result of
creep lifetime.
7. An engineering creep strain limit of 2% and
the limits for oval sections given in Table 1
are found to provide an assessment with an
adequate margin.
(16) 8. Besides all the procedures above a replica
at these critical locations should be taken
to qualify the damage state of a real
component (such as a steam piping system).
4 SPECIAL PROBLEMS IN MAIN STEAM
PIPINGS
When eqn (15) is applied to practical piping
systems a few engineering problems may be
encountered. In eqn (14) the left-hand term E has
different meaning for various parts. For a straight
pipe E the strain is defined by
D-D
&= 2 x 100% (17)
DO
where D, is the initial diameter and D the
diameter at time t.
On applying it to a bend I should be replaced
by ellipticity E with the following definition
Dma- Dmix 100%
E=2. (18)
Dma+ Drmi
where D,, and D,i are the major and minor
diameters of the oval section of interest,
respectively. During operation the data (t,, cl)
and (tj, Ei) have been measured at every outage.
From those data Cjs in eqn (14) or (15) are
determined first. In practical use problems may
arise from the lack of initial data. They will be
dealt with in the next section.
ellipticities of oval sections for life assessment
Conditional values (%)
Conditional life limit E, Maximum life limit E,
0.X 0.0
E,,P-0 0.0
Do not use a single variable to assesscreep lifetime

Time (kh): 16.871 25.1930 41.941
Ovality (%): 1.39 1,394 1.383
4.1 Straight pipes
For a straight pipe the common problem
encountered is that no initial diameters of the
considered pipe were measured. We change the
form of eqn (15) to solve the problem.
Substituting eqn (17) into (15), we obtain
21r+ I
D--D
E, = -L-.-z = c c,t;
DC, r=o
2h;+1
0, -Do= D, c C;tj
i=o
Letting D,,+ D,,C, = D,‘,, Dl= D,C;,
(19) reduces to
2N+ I listed in Table 2. A conditional creep lifetime of
Di = c Di’t;
!=I
Equation (20) is the same equation as eqns (14)
and (15). This suggests that if the initial diameter
is not known we can neglect it by making use of
the measured data (t;, Di) (j = 1, . . . , M >
2N + 2); we can get series coefficients D/s and let
Dlimit = D X &li,il be the limiting condition to
make the assessment. Here D might be the
nominal diameter of the straight pipe of interest.
4.2 Bends
For bends, E in eqn (15) should be the ellipticity
E of the oval sections. As a free bend (without a
large bend moment applying, or the bending
moment subjected could not change the angle of
the bend) the elliptical release has been discussed
by Li and Li.lh In this situation Table 1 gives the
limiting condition of obtaining a satisfactory
result. Other problems caused by bending
moments (applied in-plane, out-of-plane) are
beyond the scope of this paper and will be dealt
with elsewhere.
Table 2. Ellipticity measurements
60.313 74.657 83.375 97.281 112.785 130.126 l-t?+08
1.376 1.377 1.38 1.389 1.368 1.367 1,366
5 CASE
Many old power plants have dimensional
measurements recorded from the 1950s. Satisfac-
tory results have been evaluated from those
data.“.lx Combined with the replica technique,
stress analysis’” and C-projection method, the
damage state of a steam piping could be assessed
qualitatively and quantitatively. A Creep Life-
time Predictor (CLP) software including all
three is now under design.
(19)
An assessment of an old Chinese power plant
is given as an example. A steam pipe made of
CSN15123 steel with a diameter of 219mm and a
wall thickness of 20.6 mm has been in use since
i >O, eqn 1960. The operating temperature is 545 & 10°C.
The ellipticity E of a bend has been recorded, as
(20) 318610 h was obtained by the C-projection
method in CLP provided a conditional ellipticity
of 0.8% was taken. The limit life of the bend was
400 515 h, corresponding to an ellipticity of zero
as shown in Fig. 2. Table 3 lists the strain
measurements of a straight pipe in the same
pipeline. With an engineering restriction of 2%
creep strain, a creep lifetime of 560 310 h was
predicted, as shown in Fig. 3.
Time t, Kh
Fig. 2. Ellipticity-time curve of a bend.
166 Y. D. Li

Table 3. The creep strain measurements in a straight pipe

Time (kh): 0.0 25.193 41.941 60.313 74.657 83.375 97.281 112.785 130.126 143.608 165.135 198.296

Strain (%): 0.0 0.018 0.039 0.039 0.047 0.061 0.065 0.086 0.096 0.114 0.144 0.168

6 DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS Table 4. A theoretical prediction

-
The material CSN15123 is the same as $C,$M,gV Stress Temperature Conditional life (h)
steel which has been studied thoroughly by (MW m
E = 0.8% E = 0.0%
Evans and Wi1shire.8 From their results and -___
C-projection concept prediction method a 77 555 320 120 413831
theoretical estimation has been made at the stress 85 552 317736 410503
of 77 MPa with a temperature of 555°C or a stress
of 85 MPa with a temperature of 552°C. The
results are expressed in Table 4 provided E, is of the component. This diminishes all the
the same as the actual bend (E, is obtained by discrepancies which arise from the differ-
extrapolation from the data in Table 2). The ent stress state, loading and temperature
stresses 77 or 85 MPa are the stresses at the high history, and data scatter of material pro-
stressed zone of a bend with an additional stress perties which are inevitable in applying
caused by ellipticity and by bending moments. other methods.
This shows that the results from theoretical 3. This method makes it easier for engineers
prediction are in good agreement compared with to supervise and manage the creep com-
the estimation from actual dimensional measure- ponents themselves.
ments by making use of the C-projection concept. 4. Combination of stress analysis, the replica
In this theory the error between eqns (8) and technique and the C-projection method
(15) can be calculated from eqn (16). For provides operators with a powerful tool for
fCr;MoAV steel the error between the predicting remanent lives of the high
expressions of the e-projection concept and the temperature components in power plants.
C-projection concept is less than 4 X lop4 when
the time is from 1.8 X lo5 to 2 X lo6 h. It seems
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