International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625

www.elsevier.com/locate/ijpvp

A stochastic computation model for the creep damage of furnace tube

Changyu Zhou*, Shandong Tu
Department of Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing University of Chemical Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210009, People's Republic of China
Received 20 May 1999; accepted 6 November 2000

Abstract
The service life of high temperature furnace tubes varies signi®cantly in engineering practice. Predicting the service life of the tubes has
thus long been a concern. Due to the dif®culties in de®ning variability of creep data, previous research has mainly concentrated on
deterministic creep damage models. In order to study the random nature of service life, a new stochastic creep damage model is proposed
in this paper. A comparison with results calculated by use of the Monte Carlo method veri®es the creep damage model. The randomness of
the creep damage is demonstrated with a calculation on HK-40 furnace tubes which provides an effective means to assess the reliability of the
furnace tubes. q 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Creep; Damage; Furnace tube; Stochastic creep damage

1. Introduction wall are computed throughout the operating history, which

Predicting the service life of furnace tubes has long been a
problem for on-site engineers. Realistic life prediction saves
money by improving methods of controlling furnace opera-
tion to minimize creep damage, and by avoiding unplanned
shutdown due to tube failure.
Traditional life prediction methods involve the calcula-
tion of stress using the mean diameter equation based upon
the design pressure for steady-state operating conditions.
The stress is then used to calculate the stress rupture life
of the furnace tubes. The maximum outside wall tempera-
ture is used, in association with the minimum rupture
strength of the material at this temperature. A safety factor
is introduced by use of a conservative estimate of outside
wall temperature to allow for possible overheating of tubes.
This approach is simple and straightforward, but it can
predict a life of 100 or even 1000 yrs, based on normal
operating stress and temperature. In contrast, actual experi-
ence often shows a life of only 5±15 yr. The major reason
for this discrepancy is that the design calculations do not
include thermal stresses and possible variations of working
conditions and material performance.
For more accurate life prediction, cyclic thermal stresses
induced by start-up/shutdown and process upsets must be
considered. A method for predicting furnace tube life was
developed to address this problem. Stress levels in the tube
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: changyu_zhou@263.net (C. Zhou).
0308-0161/01/$ - see front matter q 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0308-016 1(01)00075-8
includes both steady and cyclic operating conditions.
Following the computed stress history, creep damage in
the tube wall is calculated and cumulatively summed
throughout the history until it reaches a critical level
where tube failure is predicted. For typical furnace tube
operating conditions, material damage by reversed cyclic
plasticity is negligible.
The prediction of furnace tube life has drawn the attention
of many researchers. Boyle and Spence [1] have built up the
equations of the initial value problem for creep strains and
the mathematical analytic solution has been given. Simonen
[2], Konosu [3], Wen Ying [4] and Ling Xiang [5] and
others have made use of the ®nite element method (FEM)
to predict the damage of furnace tubes.
Although there are FEM and other methods to compute
the furnace tube creep damage, the solutions are determi-
nistic. If the results are used in engineering practice, a safety
factor should be introduced. In fact, because of the random-
ness of the material properties and operating parameters, the
creep damage of furnace tube also has randomness.
At present the major research work on stochastic creep
damage is based on the material microstructure under creep
crack growth and creep fatigue [6±8]. It is dif®cult to make
use of these results for solving engineering problems.
In this paper, based on the creep initial value problem of
the thick wall cylinder [1] and stochastic theory [9], an
integral stochastic creep damage model (SCDM) is
proposed. By use of SCDM, the randomness of the furnace
tube creep damage can be obtained which will serve as an
618 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625

effective method for the reliability evaluation of furnace depends on the creep strain which follows the creep strain
tube creep damage. matrix
8 c 9
>
> de r >
>
2. Creep damage calculation of a furnace tube >
> >
>
> dt >
 c > >
< c
>
>
=
2.1. The solution of deterministic creep damage de de u
ˆ …8†
dt >
> dt >
>
>
> >
>
Based on the analysis of Boyle and Spence [1], the solu- >
> decz >
>
>
: >
;
tion procedure for creep damage is stated as follows. The
dt
initial stress matrix {s 0} where superscript 0 denotes the
initial time is The damage equation is
8 09  
> s > dD F…s† q
>
< r> = ˆH …9†
0 dt 12D
{s } ˆ s u0 …1†
>
> >
: 0> ;
sz Zt 1
or D ˆ 1 2 {1 2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} q11 …10†
0
where subscripts r, u and z denote the radial, longitudinal
and axial. Now, where D is the creep damage factor, H and q are material
creep damage constants; F…s† is the stress function
{s 0 } ˆ {s P } 1 {s T } …2†
F…s† ˆ a 1 s e 1 a2 s 1 1 a3 s m …11†
where with s 1 being the maximum principal stress; (MPa), s m the
8 T9 average stress (MPa) and s e the Mises equivalent stress,
>
> s > (MPa). Here
< r > =
{s T } ˆ s uT …3† a1 1 a2 1 a3 ˆ 1:
>
> >
: T> ;
sz Further details are given in Appendix A.

8 P9 2.2. Veri®cation of the deterministic solution

>
> s >
< r > =
To examine the correctness and precision of the determi-
{s P } ˆ s uP …4†
>
> > nistic creep damage model (DCDM), a numerical example
: P> ;
sz is studied [1]. Calculation data are normalized. There are:
a ˆ 1; inner radius, b ˆ 2; outer radius, P ˆ 0:2; internal
with {s P } being the stress matrix induced by a internal pressure, A ˆ 1; creep coef®cient, n ˆ 5; creep exponent,
pressure; and {s T }; the thermal stress matrix induced by H ˆ 1; q ˆ 3:5; E ˆ 1; m ˆ 0:3; Dcr ˆ 0:99: In the stress
a temperature gradient. The stress at time t is then function F…s†; a 1 ˆ a3 ˆ 0; a2 ˆ 1: The comparison of the
results of FEM with the deterministic solution is shown in
{s} ˆ {R} 1 {s 0 } …5† Fig. 1.
When Dcr ˆ 0:99; the failure time calculated by FEM is
where tFEM ˆ 248:1; while the failure time computed with the
8 9 present method is tDCDM ˆ 247:186: The error is 0.4%. It
>
> sr >
< > =
{s} ˆ s u …6†
>
> >
: > ;
sz

and
8
9
>
> Rr ecr ; ecu >>
< =
c c

{R} ˆ Ru er ; eu …7†
>
>
>
>
: ;
Rz ecr ; ecu

is a residual stresss matrix [1] given in Appendix A. This Fig. 1. The creep damage evolution at outer wall and inner wall.
 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625 619

is seen from Fig. 1 that the damage trend also shows good where
agreement as time increases.
8 9
>
> 2s rT >
>
>
> >
>
>
> 2Xi >
>
3. The solution of the stochastic creep damage model ( ) >
> >
>
2s T < 2s uT =
ˆ …18†
By the Taylor series, if the variables x1 ; x2 ; ¼; xn are 2Xi >
> 2Xi >
>
>
> >
>
independent, the stochastic function is y ˆ f …x1 ; x2 ; ¼; xn † >
> >
>
[9] with
>
> 2s zT >
>
: ;
2Xi
E‰yŠ < f …x1 ; x2 ; ¼; xn †uxi ˆE…xi † …12†
and
and
8 9
n 
X 2 >
> 2s rP >
>
2f …x† >
> >
>
Var‰yŠ < uXI ˆE…Xi † Var…xi † …13† >
> 2Xi >
>
iˆ1
2xi ( ) >
> >
>
2s P < 2s uP =
ˆ …19†
Here E[.] is the mathematical expectation of the function, 2Xi >
> 2Xi >
>
>
> >
>
Var[.] is the variance of the function. >
> >
>
>
> 2s zP >
>
For creep damage D, : ;
2Xi
E‰DŠ < D …14†
By use of Eq. (5)
and     ( )
2s 2R 2s 0
n 
X 2 ˆ 1 …20†
2D 2X i 2Xi 2Xi
Var‰DŠ < uXI ˆE…Xi † Var…xi † …15†
iˆ1
2xi
where

8 9
3.1. The selection of stochastic parameters > 2s r >
>
> >
>
>
> 2Xi >
>
In damage calculations there are many parameters. They   >>
< 2s
>
>
=
2s u
include material constants, such as elastic modulus E, Pois- ˆ …21†
2X i >
> 2Xi >
>
son's ratio m , thermal expansion coef®cient a , creep and >
> >
>
> 2s
> >
>
damage constants, such as A, n, H, q etc. and operating >
: z >
;
controlling parameters, such as temperature and pressure. 2Xi
All these parameters can be considered as random variables.

8 9
3.2. Establishment of stochastic creep damage model >
> 2Rr …ecr ; ecu † >
>
>
> >
>
>
> 2 Xi >
>
From Eqs. (1)±(10), there are   >>
< 2R …ec ; ec †
>
>
=
2R u r u
8 9 ˆ …22†
>
> 2s r0 >
> 2Xi >
> 2Xi >
>
> > >
> >
>
>
> 2Xi >
> >
> 2Rz …ecr ; ecu † >
>
( ) >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
< >
= : ;
2s 0 2s u0 2Xi
ˆ …16†
2Xi >
> 2Xi >
>
>
> >
>
>
> >
>
> 2s z0
> >
>
: ; 8  9
2Xi >
> 2 decr > >
>
> >
>
> 2Xi dt > >
>
where Xi are random variables such as E, m , a , A, n, H, q, P   c  >>  c > >
2 de < 2 de u =
etc. Then ˆ …23†
2Xi dt > 2Xi dt >
> >
( ) ( ) ( ) >
> >
>
2s 0 2s P 2s T > 
> 2 de z >
c  >
ˆ 1 …17† >
> >
>
2Xi 2Xi 2Xi : ;
2Xi dt
620 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625

The damage constitutive equation is Inner radius: a ˆ 37:2 mm

Outer radius b ˆ 52:1 mm
   q
2 dD 2H F…s† …F…s†† q21 2…F…s†† Inner wall temperature Ti ˆ 8228C
ˆ 1Hq Outer wall temperature To ˆ 9028C
2Xi dt 2Xi 12D …1 2 D†q 2X i
Elastic modulus E ˆ 138215:0 2 59:7767T MPa
…F…s†† q 2D Poisson's ratio m ˆ 0:3137 1 4:952 £ 1025 T
1 Hq Thermal expansion coef®cient a ˆ 1:5 £ 1025 1 3:0 £
…1 2 D†q11 2Xi
1029 T …1=8C†
…24†
Creep and damage constants:
A ˆ 10238:71310:02784T
Zt q n ˆ 13:91 2 0:00966T
2D 2
ˆ {1 2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} q11 H ˆ 10224:78710:01644T
2Xi 0
q ˆ 6:6473 2 0:0029T
( (
Zt 2q Zt 2H
q In this example variables such as E, m , a , P, A, n, H, q, T0
 H‰F…s†Š dt 1 ‰F…s†Š q
0 2Xi 0 2Xi are selected as the random variables to check the program.
Variation coef®cients of these variables are 0.05±0.1.
)) The results of a Monte Carlo simulation solution, in
q21 2F…s† 2q
1 Hq‰F…s†Š 1 H‰F…s†Š q ln‰F…s†Š dt which the number of trials is 10000, and the stochastic
2X i 2X i
creep damage solution are shown in Table 1.
From the data in Table 1, the results of the two methods
1 Zt 1
1 {1 2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} q11 ln{1 are very close. The error in the damage value D between the
2
…1 1 q† 0 two results is from 20.22 to 4.49%, while the error of the
partial derivation 2D=2Xi is between 26.94 and 2.15%.
Zt 2q These errors are very small. The results demonstrate that
2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} (25)
0 2Xi accuracy of the stochastic creep damage program in Section
3.3 is very high.
The detailed process is shown in Appendix A.

3.3. The stochastic creep damage computation program 4. Conclusion

Based on Eqs. (12)±(23), a stochastic creep damage
analysis program has been developed. The ¯owchart is
shown in Fig. 2.
3.4. Veri®cation of stochastic creep damage solution
The furnace tube parameters for this example are [10]:
Material HK40
Operating pressure P ˆ 3:43 MPa
In this paper a new stochastic creep damage model of a
furnace tube is proposed.
Based on the stochastic creep damage model, an integral
computation program is compiled.
1. The comparison of the results obtained with a Monte
Carlo method and the stochastic creep damage computa-
tion model demonstrates that the stochastic creep damage
model is highly accurate.
2. The creep damage randomness provides an effective

Table 1
The comparison of the Monte Carlo results and stochastic creep damage results (time ˆ 44100 h, D ˆ 7:234 £ 1022 )

Stochastic Stochastic creep damage solution Monte Carlo solution Error

variable Xi
D 2D=2Xi D0 2D 0 =2Xi …D 0 2 D†=D (%) …2D 0 =2Xi 2 2D=2Xi †=
…2D=2Xi † (%)

E 7:234 £ 1022 24.568 £ 10 22 7:218 £ 1022 24:377 £ 1022 20.22 24.18

m 7:234 £ 1022 28.819 £ 10 22 7:218 £ 1022 28:767 £ 1022 20.22 20.59
a 7:234 £ 1022 9.046 £ 10 2 7:235 £ 1022 8:713 £ 102 0.01 23.68
P 7:234 £ 1022 1.216 £ 10 22 7:235 £ 1022 1.195 £ 10 22 0.01 21.73
A 7:234 £ 1022 21.687 £ 10 14 7:559 £ 1022 21:570 £ 1014 4.49 26.94
n 7:234 £ 1022 21.913 £ 10 21 7:410 £ 1022 21:888 £ 1021 2.43 21.31
H 7:234 £ 1022 2.264 £ 10 10 7:485 £ 1022 2:254 £ 1010 3.47 20.44
q 7:234 £ 1022 2.507 £ 10 7:279 £ 1022 2:463 £ 10 0.62 21.76
T0 7:234 £ 1022 4.372 £ 10 24 7:305 £ 1022 4.466 £ 10 24 0.98 2.15
 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625 621

Fig. 2. The ¯owchart of the stochastic creep damage computation.

(  2 )
means for the assessment of the creep damage reliability P b
of furnace tubes in the future. s uP ˆ 2 11 …A2†
k 21 r

P
s zP ˆ 2m …A3†
Appendix A k2 21

A.1. Deterministic equations where s uP is the hoop stress induced by pressure (MPa);
s zP , the axial stress induced by pressure (MPa); s rP , the
In Eq. (4), the stresses induced by internal pressure are as radial stress induced by pressure (MPa); P, the pressure
follows: (MPa); b, the outer radius (mm); a, the inner radius
(mm); k, the ratio of outer radius to inner radius; k ˆ
(  2 ) b=a; r, the radius at any position of tube wall (mm) and
P b m , the Poisson's ratio.
s rP ˆ 2 12 …A1†
k 21 r In Eq. (3), the thermal stress induced by temperature
622 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625

gradient through the wall is E Z r ec 2 ec

r u
Ru ˆ dr
8  2 9 2…1 2 m2 † a r
> b >
>
<   21 >
=
T Ea…DT† b r !
sr ˆ 22 ln 1 2 ln k …A4† r 2 1 a2 b2 Zb ecr 2 ecu
2…1 2 m† ln k >
> r k 21 >
> 2 2 dr
: ;
b 2 a2 r 2 a r
!
8  2 9 E…1 2 2m† 1 Zr r 2 1 a2 Z b c
> b > 2 r ecz dr 1 2 r ez dr
>
<   11 >
=
T Ea…DT† b r 2…1 2 m2 † r 2 a b 2 a2 a
su ˆ 1 2 ln 2 2 ln k …A5†
2…1 2 m† ln k >
> r k 21 >
> !
: ;
E
2 ecu 1 mecz
1 2 m2
   
Ea…DT† b 2 ln k …A14†
s zT ˆ 1 2 2 ln 2 2 …A6†
2…1 2 m† ln k r k 21
!
where s uT is the hoop stress induced by thermal stress (MPa); Em Z r ec 2 ec b2 Z b ec 2 ec
r u r u
s zT , the axial stress induced by thermal stress (MPa); s rT , Ru ˆ dr 2 2 dr
…1 2 m2 † a r b 2a a2 r
the radius stress induced by thermal stress (MPa); E, the
elastic modular of material (MPa); a , the thermal expansion Em…1 2 2m† 1 Zr E
coef®cient of material (1/8C); DT, the temperature gradient 2 2 2 2
r ecz dr 1
12m b 2a a 1 2 m2
of outer wall and inner wall DT ˆ Ti 2 To :

s0u ˆ s uP 1 s uT …A7†  ‰mecr 2 …1 2 m†ecz Š (A15)

s0z ˆ s zP 1 s zT …A8† ecz ˆ 2 ecr 1 ecu …A16†

 
s0r ˆ s rP 1 s rT …A9† dD F…s† q
ˆH …A17†
dt 12D
In Eq. (8)
  Zt 1
decr s en21 1 D ˆ 1 2 {1 2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} q11 …A18†
ˆA s 2 … s 1 s † …A10†
dt …1 2 D†n r 2 u z 0

Here the stress function F…s† is

 
decu s en211

ˆA s 2 s 1 s …A11† F…s† ˆ a 1 s e 1 a2 s 1 1 a3 s m …A19†
dt …1 2 D†n u 2 r z

where A is the material creep coef®cient and n the material where s 1 is the maximum principal stress (MPa):
creep exponent.
s 1 ˆ Max…s r ; s u ; s z † …A20†
1 q
s e ˆ p …s r 2 s u †2 1 …s u 2 s z †2 1 …s z 2 s u †2 …A12†
2 s m the average stress; MPa

In Eq. (7) 1
sm ˆ …s 1 s u 1 s z † …A21†
Z r ec 2 ec 3 r
E r u
Rr ˆ dr s e is Mises equivalent stress (MPa):
2…1 2 m2 † a r
!
r 2 2 a2 b2 Zb ecr 2 ecu a1 1 a2 1 a3 ˆ 1 …A22†
2 2 dr
b 2 a2 r 2 a r and H, q are the creep damage constants.
!
E…1 2 2m† 1 Zr r 2 2 a2 Zb c
1 r ecz dr 2 r ez dr A.2. Stochastic equations
2…1 2 m2 † r 2 a b2 2 a2 a
…A13† Stochastic variable is expressed by Xi :
 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625 623

Based on Eqs. (A1)±(A3), Based on Eqs. (A10) and (A11)

(  2 )     
2s rP 1 b 2P 2 decr s en21 2s r 1 2s u 2s z
ˆ 2 12 …A23† ˆA 2 1
2Xi k 21 r 2Xi 2Xi dt …1 2 D†n 2Xi 2 2Xi 2Xi

(  
 2 ) s en21 1 2A
2s uP 1 b 2P 1 n s r 2 … s u 1 s z †
ˆ 2 11 …A24† …1 2 D† 2 2Xi
2Xi k 21 r 2Xi
 
s en21 1
1A s 2 …s 1 s †
2s zP 2P 2m 2m 2P …1 2 D†n r 2 u z

ˆ 2 1 2 …A25†
2Xi k 2 1 2X k 2 1 2Xi  
n 2 1 2s e 2n
 1 ln s e
s e 2Xi 2Xi
Based on Eqs. (A4)±(A6)  
s en21 1
!2 1A s 2 …s 1 s †
b …1 2 D†n r 2 u z

( ! 21 )
2s rT 1 b r  
ˆ 2 2 ln 1 ln k n 2D 2n
2Xi 2 ln k r k 212  2 ln…1 2 D†
1 2 D 2Xi 2Xi
…A29†
"
aDT 2E EDT 2a aE 2…DT†     
 1 1 2 decu s en21 2s u 1 2s r 2s z
1 2 m 2Xi 1 2 m 2Xi 1 2 m 2Xi ˆA 2 1
2Xi dt …1 2 D†n 2Xi 2 2Xi 2Xi

#  
aEDT 2m s en21 1 2A
1 (A26) 1 s 2 … s 1 s †
…1 2 m†2 2Xi …1 2 D†n u 2 r z
2Xi

 
s en21 1
!2 1A s 2 …s 1 s †
b …1 2 D†n u 2 r z

( ! 11 )
2s uT 1 b r  
ˆ 1 2 ln 2 ln k n 2 1 2s e 2n
2Xi 2 ln k r k2 2 1  1 ln s e
s e 2Xi 2Xi
"  
aDT 2E EDT 2a aE 2…DT† s en21 1
 1 1 1A s 2 …s 1 s †
1 2 m 2Xi 1 2 m 2Xi 1 2 m 2Xi …1 2 D†n u 2 r z

#  
n 2D 2n
aEDT 2m  2 ln…1 2 D†
1 (A27) 1 2 D 2Xi 2Xi
…1 2 m†2 2Xi
…A30†
Based on Eq. (A12)
( ! )
2s zT 1 b 2 ln k " !
ˆ 1 2 2 ln 2 2s e 1 2s u 2s r
2Xi 2 ln k r k2 2 1 ˆ …s u 2 s r † 2
2Xi 2s e 2Xi 2Xi

" !
aDT 2E EDT 2a aE 2…DT† 2s r 2s z
 1 1 1 …s r 2 s z † 2 1 …s z 2 s u †
1 2 m 2Xi 1 2 m 2Xi 1 2 m 2Xi 2Xi 2Xi

# !#
aEDT 2m 2s z 2s u
1 (A28)  2 …A31†
…1 2 m†2 2Xi 2Xi 2Xi
624 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625

Based on Eqs. (A13)±(A16)

0 1
2ecr 2ecu 2ecr 2ecu
2Rr E BZr 2X 2 2X r 2 2 a2 b2 Zb 2Xi
2
2Xi C
B i i C
ˆ B dr 2 dr C
2Xi 2…1 2 m2 † @ a r b2 2 a2 r 2 a r A

!
1 Z r ec 2 ec r 2 2 a2 b2 Zb ecr 2 ecu 2E
r u
1 2
dr 2 2 2 2
dr
2…1 2 m † a r b 2a r a r 2Xi
!
Em Z r ec 2 ec r 2 2 a2 b2 Zb ecr 2 ecu 2m
r u
1 2
dr 2 2 dr
2
…1 2 m † a r b 2 a2 r 2 a r 2Xi
! !
E…1 2 2m† 1 Zr 2ecz r 2 2 a2 Zb 2ecz 1 2 2m 1 Zr c r 2 2 a2 Z b c 2E
1 2 2
r dr 2 2 2
r dr 1 2 2
r ez dr 2 2 2
r ez dr
2…2m † r a 2Xi b 2 a a 2Xi 2…1 2 m † r a b 2a a 2Xi
!
E…m 2 m2 2 1† 1 Zr c r 2 2 a2 Z b c 2m
1 2 2
r ez dr 2 2 r ez dr …A32†
…1 2 m † 2 r a b 2 a2 a 2Xi
0 1
2ecr 2ec 2ecr 2ecu
BZr 2 u 2
2Ru E B 2Xi 2Xi r 2 1 a2 b2 Zb 2Xi 2Xi C C
ˆ B dr 2 2 dr C
2Xi 2…1 2 m † @ a
2 r b 2a r 2 2
a r A

!
1 Z r ec 2 ec r 2 1 a2 b2 Zb ecr 2 ecu 2E
r u
1 dr 2 2 dr
2…1 2 m2 † a r b 2 a2 r 2 a r 2Xi
!
Em Zr ec 2 ec r 2 1 a2 b2 Zb ecr 2 ecu 2m
r u
1 2 2
dr 2 2 2 2
dr
…1 2 m † a r b 2a r a r 2Xi
! !
E…1 2 2m† 1 Zr 2ecz r 2 1 a2 Zb 2ecz 1 2 2m 1 Z r c r 2 1 a2 Zb c 2E
2 r dr 1 2 r dr 2 r ez dr 1 2 r ez dr
2…1 2 m2 † r 2 a 2X i b 2 a 2
a 2X i 2…1 2 m2 † r2
a b 2 a 2
a 2X i
!  
E…m 2 m 2 1† 1 Zr c
2
r 1 a Zb c
2 2
2m E c
2e u 2e c
2m
2 2 2 2
r ez dr 1 2 2
r ez dr 2 2
1 m z 1 ecu
…1 2 m † r a b 2a a 2Xi 1 2 m 2Xi 2Xi 2Xi
1
2E 2Em
2m
2 2
ecu 1 mecz 2 2 2
ecu 1 mecz …A33†
12m 2Xi …1 2 m † 2Xi
0 1
2ecr 2ec 2ecr 2ecu
2 u 2
2Ru Em B Z
B r 2Xi 2Xi b2 Zb 2X
i 2Xi C C
ˆ B dr 2 2 dr C
2Xi …1 2 m † @ a
2 r b 2a a2 r A

!
m Z r ec 2 ec b2 Z b ec 2 ec 2E
r u r u
1 dr 2 2 dr
…1 2 m2 † a r b 2 a2 a r 2Xi
!
E…1 1 m2 † Zr ecr 2 ecu b2 Zb ec 2 ec
r u 2m Em…1 2 2m† 1 Zr 2ec
1 dr 2 dr 2 r z dr
…1 2 m2 †2 a r b 2 2 a2 a r 2Xi 1 2 m2 b2 2 a2 a 2Xi
Zr  Zr 
m…1 2 2m† 1 c 2E E…m2 2 4m 1 1† 1 c 2m
2 r ez dr 2 r ez dr
1 2 m 2 b2 2 a2 a 2Xi …1 2 m2 †2 b2 2 a2 a 2Xi
 
E 2ecr 2m c 2ecz c 2m 1  c  2E
1 2
m 1 e r 2 …1 2 m † 1 e z 1 2
mer 2 …1 2 m†ecz
12m 2Xi 2Xi 2Xi 2Xi 12m 2Xi
2mE  c  2m
1 mer 2 …1 2 m†ecz …A34†
…1 2 m2 †2 2Xi
 C. Zhou, S. Tu / International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping 78 (2001) 617±625 625

 c  References
2ecz 2e r 2ecu
ˆ2 1 …A35†
2Xi 2Xi 2Xi [1] Boyle JT, Spence J. Stress analysis for creep. Southampton: Butter-
Based on Eqs. (A17) and (A18) worths and The Camelot Press Ltd, 1983.
[2] Simonen FA, Jaske CE. A computational model for predicting the life
   
2 dD 2H F…s† q …F…s†† q21 2…F…s†† of tubes used in petrochemical heater service. J Press Vessel Technol
ˆ 1Hq 1985;108(8):239±46.
2Xi dt 2Xi 1 2 D …1 2 D†q 2Xi [3] Konosu K, Maeda K. Design method of high temperature machines
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…F…s††q 2D [4] Wen Ying. The creep damage and its remaining life predicting
1 Hq
…1 2 D†q11 2Xi method of HK-40 furnace tube. A dissertation for the degree of
…A36† Master in the Nanjing Institute of Chemical Technology, 1989.
[5] Ling Xiang, Liu XH, Chen JN, Shen FZ. A FEM model for predicting
Here 2s e =2Xi is shown in Eq. (A31) the life of high temperature components. Chin Press Vessel Technol
1996; 13(5):47±51.
2s 1 2 [6] Wei RP, Masser D, Liu H, Harlow DG. Probabilistic consideration of
ˆ Max…s r ; s u ; s z † …A37†
2Xi 2Xi creep crack growth. Mater Sci Engng 1994;A189(1±2):69±76.
[7] Glinak JT, Harlow DG, Delph TJ. A probabilistic model for the
  growth of creep cracks. Engng Fracture Mech 1997;51(1):25±39.
2s m 2 1
ˆ …s r 1 s u 1 s z † [8] Harlow DG, Delph TJ. A probabilistic model for creep-fatigue failure.
2Xi 2Xi 3 J Press Vessel Technol 1997;119(1):45±51.
  [9] Dai SH, Wang MO. Reliability analysis in engineering applications.
1 2s r 2s u 2s z
ˆ 1 1 …A38† Von Norstrand Reinhold Press: New York, 1992.
3 2Xi 2Xi 2Xi [10] Roach DB, VanEcho JA. Comparison of the properties of the HK-40
and HP-45 cast heat-resistant alloys, ASTM STP 756. Am Soc Test
2D Zt 2
q Mater 1982:275±312.
ˆ {1 2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} q11
2Xi 0
( (
Zt 2q Zt 2H
q
 H‰F…s†Š dt 1 ‰F…s†Š q
0 2Xi 0 2Xi
))
q21 2F … s† 2q
1 Hq‰F…s†Š 1 H‰F…s†Š q ln‰F…s†Š dt
2X i 2X i

1 Zt 1
1 2
…1 2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} q11 ln{1
…1 1 q† 0

Zt 2q
2 …1 1 q† H‰F…s†Š q dt} (A39)
0 2Xi