Name: Usama Farooq Muhammadi

Student ID: 20161-21354

Section: MWE-13481

Course: Business Analytics for Decision

Making

Quiz 4
Solution
Brokenleggen
Answer 1.

The line of best fit is not fitting the data well, reflecting a low r2 value, as the data is highly seasonal. This
can be seen by the peaks and troughs in the data within one year.

Answer 2.

The June seasonal index is 1.25 meaning that unemployment in the June quarter is 25% higher than the
average quarterly level.

Answer 3.

The December seasonal index is 0.73 meaning that unemployment in the December quarter is 27%
lower than the average quarterly level.

Answer 4.

September 1998 - coded quarter (X)= 10

Y= 164.46 + 1.0163X

Y= 164.46 + 1.0163*(10)

= 174.62 Predicted unemployment for September 1998 =174.6

Residual= actual Y - predicted Y

= 241- 174.6

= 66.4 (please note that this is a large residual)

Answer 5.

De-seasonalised unemployment for September 1998 – TSCI / S = TCI (de-seasonalised data)

=241/1.36 =177.21

This de-seasonalised figure for September 1998 (177.21) is very similar to the trend estimate of 174.6.

Answer 6.

December 2001- coded quarter (X)= 23

December seasonal index = 0.73

 Y= TSCI (assume C=1, I=1)

Y= TS

Y=[164.46 + 1.0163X]*S

Y=[164.46 + 1.0163*23)]*0.73

= 137.12

Answer 7.

7. An example of an irregular effect that might influence unemployment in Brokenleggen is any of the
following and more:

Severe unexpected weather i.e., blizzard, flooding, extra-warm summer, extra-cold summer etc., one-off
promotion by competitors, war, unexpected travel problems which affect tourists visiting the town, etc.