Probability is the measure of uncertainty or measure of degree of belief in a particular statement or assumption Venn Diagram: A diagram that is understood to represent the set by circular region o by parts of circular regions or their compliments with respect to a rectangle represent a space S is called the Venn Diagram A B AUB={xlxeAorx eB} ANB = {xlx © Aandx € BY A-B= {xlx @ Aand xe BY Aw A= {xix ee Sandx@ A} Cartesian Product: The cartesian product of two sets A and B is denoted by AxB is a set that contains all ordered pairs (x,y) where x € Aand y € B ie. AxB= {(x,y) IxeA andy € b} Example: LetA= 1,7} & B= 3,4,5,6) A*B = ((H,1) ,(H.2), (H.3), (H.4), (H,5), (H,6),(T1), ( (1.6)Or By Tree Diagram ibd dd faa £6 EEE Ee Random Experiment: The term experiment means a planned activity which results a set of data. Trail: A single performance of an experiment is called Trial Outcome: The results obtained from an expenment or atrial is called outcome. And experiment which produces different results even through it is repeated a large number of time under some essential conditions is called random experiment (i) The experiment can be repeated practically or theoretically any number of times. (ii) The experiment has always two or more outcome (iti) The outcome of cach repetition is unpredictable. Sample Space: Asset consisting of all possible outcomes of'a random experiment is called the sample space. A= (H7} for acoin S=[12,3,45,6} fora dice3 Event: Any subset of a sample space S is called an event A=(H) CIT} B= (146) (123456) Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events A and B of single experiment are said to be mutually exclusive or disjoint events iff they cannot occur both together. Exhaustive Events: Events are said to be exhaustive if their union make the whole sample space. A={H},B=(T) AUB= {HT} Equally likely events: Two events A and B are said to be equally likely events if they both have the same chance of occurrence or when one event is as likely to occur as to other. Permutatis A permutation is any ordered subset from a set of ‘n’ distinct objects. The number of *r’ objects selected in a definite order from ‘n' distinct is denoted by “P and givenas . al "t= Combinations: A combination is a set of *r” objects selected without the regard of their order from the set of ‘n’ objects is denoted by “CC, and given as “cet ri(a—ry) A club consist of four members. How many sample points are in a sample space When three officer's president, secretary and treasurer are chosen.Solution: Heren=4,r=3 Example: How many sample points are in a sample space S when a person draws a hand of S cards from a well shuffled pack of $2 playing cards. Solution: Here n=52,r=5 . nls) $2:51.5049.48.471_ Onan B23 31471 ase ae0. Definition of Probability: Ifa random experiment produces ‘n’ equally likely and mutually exclusive ‘events are considered favorable for the occurrence of'an even A then probability of an event is denoted by P(A) and given as 1m _no. favorable chances PUA) =F" “Totalnasy chances (i) PAs S20 (i) PIS)=Z=I (iii) Lf. A and B are two mutually events then P(AUB) = P(A}P(B) Example: A card is drawn from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Find the probability that (i) Card isa red card (ii) Card is. a diamond (ii) Card is 10 Solution: Here n= 52 (i) Let A represents the event that card és a red card. PAy= Sat(ii) Let B represent the event that card is a diamond card pB)=2=2 nus (iii) Let C represent the event that card is 10 423 pcy=2=2 3 For Information: 7 &o o+ae¢ peer = In deck of card there are total 52 card, dAce sKing Queen Jack 26 Red cards 26 Black cards 13 Heart cards 13 Diamond cards 13 Club cards Li Spade cardsExample: 6 A fair coin is tossed three times. What is the probability that at least one head appears? Solution: “The sample space for this experiment is S= (HHH, HHT, HTH, THA, HTT, THT, TTH, TTT) ‘Thus n($)=8 Let A denotes the event that at least one head appears. Then A= (HHH, HHT, HTH, THH, HTT, THT, TTH} ‘Therefore, nA) =7 mA)_7 mS) 8 Example: Iftwo fair dice are thrown, what is the probability of getting (i) A double six (it) A sum of 8 of more dots? Solution: The sample space for this experiment is S= {(1,1) (1,2) (1,3) (1,4) (1,5) (1,6) (2,1) (2.2) (2,3) (2.4) (2,5) (2,6) (3,1) (3.2) 83) BA) BS) 3,6) 4,1) 42) (43) 44) 5) 4,6) (5,1) (5.2) (5,3) 54) 45,5) (5,6) (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)} ‘Thus n(S)=36 (i) Let A represent the event that a double six appears. Then A={66) => wA)=1 ‘Therefore (ii) Let B denotes the event that a sum of $ or more dot. B= {(2,6) (3,5) (3,6) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6) (5,3) (5.4) (5,5) (5,6) (62) (6,3) (64) (6,5) (6,6) } Hence P(A) = n(B)=15 PAYExample: Ginx white balls and fourback balls which are indsingushable apart from color are placed in a bag. If six balls are taken from the bag, find the probability of their being three white and three black. Solution: Here total balls =10 White balls = 6 Black balls =4 Let 6 balls are selected at random from ten balls. The possible number if ‘outcomes in which 6 balls are selected from 10 balls. niS)="C, = aes 5 =210 Let A denote the event that three balls are white and three are black 6) eae 4 65.431 x43! 30 aa =H M4 a 32a mA) _ 80 _ 8 Therefi (A) = Ase ms ney mS) 210 21 Example: An employer wishes to hire three people from a group of 15 applicants 8 men and 7 women all of whom are equally qualified to fill the position. If he selects three at random. What is the probability that? (i) All three will be men (ii) At least one will be women Solution: The possible ways that three people are selected from 15 applicants as s ISt___15.14.13.121_ 45, sa) 320 (i) Let A.be the event that all three selected are men. The possible outcomes for this event are Ss _8765!_, _WMA)_ 36 _ 8 wa) (3 ae 3 86 = PE e455 6S(0) Let B represents the event that at least one women is selected. The total number of ways for this event are ot) 0-00) mB)= n a 1 8! aH ae ai 272 B= 3KT—3)1 ONB—O! mB)=399 sample points _B)_399_37 = FB nS) 455 6S Example: Four items are taken at random from a box of |2 items and inspected. The box is rejected if more than one item is found to be faulty. If there are three faulty items in the box, find the probability that the box is accepted. Solution: ‘The possible number of ways in which 4 items are selected from |2 items «~} Let A denotes the event that shows no faulty item or one faulty tem mml(ih) Aja — et _ 5g _t_y_ 9 _asy DG=0) HO=a) TG=Hi HO=3i mA) _378_ ‘Therefore, P(A)= aS) 95Example: A coin is tossed 4 times in succession. What is the probability of getting at least on head? Solution: The sample space for this experiment is S= (HHHH, HHHT, HHTH, HHTT, HTHH, HTHT, HTTH, HITT, THHH, THHT, THTH, THTT, TTHH, TTHT, TTTH, TTTT} nS) = 16 Let A be the event that at least one head appears. Collected by: Muhammad Saleem =~” Composed by: Muzammil Tanveer mA)=15 = P(A) = aS) 16 AA be the complement of an event A that no head appear Alternative:Example: 10 fone card is selected at random from a deck of $2 playing cards, what is the probability that the card is club oF a face ard or both Solution [Let A be the event thatthe card is club card mA) = 13, nA) _13 > P(A)= N= 74S) 7 52 Collected by: Muhammad Saleem Composed by: Muzammil Tanveer Let 47 B be the event that the card is both club and f AN B)= PAN) The probability is P(AUB)=P(A)+ P(B)-P(ANB) 3 Example: ‘An integer is chosen at random from the first 200 +ve integers. What is the probability that integer chosen is divided by 6 or by 8? Solution: The sample space is 200} Let A represent the event that integer chosen is divisible by 6. mA) 3 MS) 200 P(A) Let B represent the event that integer chosen is divisible by 8. (B) * MB) _ 25, PB) zs (ay mS) 200 Collected by: Muhammad Saleem mil TanveerLet AM B be the event that integer chosen is divisible by both 6 and8 MANB) m(S) = P(Anb)= The probability is P(AU B)= P(A)+ P(B)-P( ANB) 3325 8 50 200° 200 200 200 Pav a)=t Example: ither S or 11 A pair of dice are thrown. Find the probability of getting a total of Solution: ‘The sample space for this experiment is S= {01.1 (1.2).0,3) (1.4) (1,5) (1,6) 2.2.2) 2,3) 2.4) 2,5) 2.6)B,1) G2) 8,3) 84) B.S) B,6) (4.1) (4.2) (4,3) (4.4) (4.5) (4,6) ( ) (5,6) (6,1) (62) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5)(6.6)} n(S) = 36 A be the event that a total of S occurs (4) ,23),8.2),4,D} 4 = payed nS) 36 Let B be the event that a total of 11 occurs A 5,6) .(6,5)} n(B)=2 mB => P(s)="® nS) 36 Collected by: Muhammad Saleem” =~ Composed by: Muzammil Tanveer The events A and B are mutually exclusive as a total of S and 11 cannot both ‘occur together P(AUB) = P(A) + P(BY 4 P(AUB)=— (498) =3 6 a 6Example: 1 2 ‘Three horses A, B & C are ina race A is twice as likely to win as B and B is twice likely to win as C. What is the probability that A or B wins Solution. According to given condition P(A) = 2P(B) P(B) = 2P(C) Let P be the probability of C (C)=P Then P(B) = 2P(C)=2P P(A) = 2P(B) = 2(2P) =4P We know that sum ofall probabilities is equal to one 4P+2P+P=1 ?=1 > p-b = P(C)= => P(B)= &xajeai- 4 P(B)=— => Pl 7 Hence P(A B)= P(A)+ P(B)Example: 13 A card is drawn at random from a deck of ordinary playing cards, What is the probability that it is a diamond a face or a king? a Solution: Here (5) Let A represents the event thatthe card is diamond card wA=13 may_ 13 = ray B 4y mS) 52 Let B represents the event that the card is face card x)= 12 i) = ra) 2) mS) Collected by: Muhammad Saleem ‘Composed by: Muzammil Tanveer Let C represents the event that the card is king card mcy=4 me) _ 4 > rcte+ () mS) 52 Let 47 B represents the event that the card is king card ANB) =3 mANB)_ 3 mS) 32 = P(AnB)= Let BAVC represents the event thatthe card is king card mancy=s ya MBOC)_ 4 = r(sncjM220.4 ¢ y MS) 32 Let AC represents the event that the card is king eard nANC)=1 Let AN BOC represents the event that the card is king card nun Bnc)=1 mAQBOC)_ 1 ms) P(AUBUC)=F.A)+ AB)+AO-P(ANB)-P(BAC)- P(ANC)+P(ANBAC) = PUanBad)Example: 14 ‘Two coins are tossed, What is the conditional probability that two heads result, given that there is at least one head’? ‘Solution: ‘The sample space for this experiment is S=(HH,HT, TH, TT) = n(Sy=4 Let A represent the event that two heads appears A=(HH}) = WA)=1 i ms) 4 Let B be the event that at least one head appears Be(HT, THM) => n(B)=3 mB) 3 mS) 4 P(ANB) p(B) ANB=|HH} = n(And)=| AY) ate mn P(A) = PB) = We have to calculate P( Yq) = a) Aird! 4Question: 1 5 A man tosses two fair dice. What is the conditional probability that the sum of the two dice will be 7 given that (i) The sum is odd (ii) ‘The sum is greater than 6 (iii) The two dice had the same outcome: Solution ‘The sample space for this experiment is S= F112) (1,3) (14) (15) (1,6) (2,0) (2,2) (2,3) (2,4) (2,5) (2,6) (3,1) 3,2) (3,3) 3,4) 3,5) (3,6) (4,1) 42) (4,3) (4.4) (4,5) 4,6) (5, 1D (5,2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5)(5,6) (6,1) (6.2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)} nS) = 36 Let A be the event that the sum is 7 A= {(1,6) 2,5), G4), 4,3), 65,2), 6,0} nA) =6 > Mantas! Let B be the event that the sum ts ocd: B= C12) (1491.6) (2,1) (2,3) (2,5) (3,2) 3,4) (3,6) (4,1) 43) 4,5) (5,2) (5,4) (5,6) (6,1)(6,3) (6,3)} n(B)= 18 > p(s)= M8), Let C be the event that the sum is greater than 6 © = { (1,6) (2,5) (2,6) (3.4) (3,5) (3,6) (4,3) (4,4) (4,5) (4,6)(5,1) (5.2) (5,3) (5,4) (5,5) (5,6) (6,1) (6,2) (6,3) (6,4) (6,5) (6,6)} nC) = 21 WC) _ 217 pc) At = PC) TS) 736 "12Let D be the event that two dice has same outcome 1 6 A= (11) (2.2), 3,3), (4,4), (5,5), (6,6)} nA) =6 mD)_ 6 _1 Pr —=—=— = PTS) 3676 Ay B={(1,6),(2,5).(3.4).(4,3).(5.2).(6,1)} n(AnB)=6 rans) =f: i ANC={(1,6),(2,3).(3.4).(4.3).(5,2).(6,1)} n(Anc)=6 _MAnc) 61 MAN) =) TB T6 AND=¢ P(AMD) =0 | Pl B) Apgar af at 1 3 mang 2 ANC) 2 Mag 35 12 P(AND) Nt nay 1 617 Example: What is the probability that a randomly selected poker hand, contain exactly 3 aces, given that it contains at least 2 aces. Solution: Here total cards Total no, of ways in which 5 cards are randomly selected from 52 playing cards (=2, snt0-( < Let A be the event that exactly 3 aces appear wy-(3)(3) Let B be the event that at least 2 aces appear (IC KOIEKOC) atom (3) 4) (48) aaos (32) n(S) P(ANB)= Collected by: Muhammad Saleem —* = Composed by: Muzammil Tanveer Ayan 1nB) ( P(B)