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The US Equities Team’s optimistic look ahead to the next decade, including the enduring power of Moore’s Law,
the potential for hyper-connected networks and how innovators will drive the circular economy
US Equities
This paper is intended solely for the use of professional investors and UK intermediaries and should
not be relied upon by any other person. It is not intended for use by retail clients.
Risk Factors
Fraser Thomson
Client Service Director
1
Contributors
2
Contents
4 6 8 10
Moore’s Law marches on Open minds Hyper-connected networks Going in circles
Investment manager Investment manager Investment manager Client director Ben James
Tom Slater considers what Kirsty Gibson describes Dave Bujnowski explains explores the scale of
the regular doubling of the hunt for companies with why the internet and the opportunity available
computing power might foundational technologies cloud computing are set to to companies that take
make possible on which wider industries supercharge the power of active roles within the
can be built human creativity circular economy
12 14 18
Bitcoin: the digital Venice Infinite progress Purpose maximisers
Investment analyst Investment manager Investment analyst
Sacha Meyers describes Gary Robinson explains why Saad Malik discusses how
how the decentralised the pace of invention should recognising what motivates
cryptocurrency Bitcoin continue to speed up workers can help companies
could pave the way to increase their chances
more creativity within the of success
financial system
3
Moore’s Law
marches on
Investment manager Tom Slater considers what the regular
doubling of computing power might make possible
It is a decade since the start of 2012, the year improving the efficiency and performance
the Olympics arrived in London and the of silicon chips. Consequently, today’s
Queen celebrated her Diamond Jubilee. iPhone 13 carries out 147 times more
calculations per second than the iPhone 4S
Back then, the financial press was outraged could back in 2012.
by the Libor scandal. It contemplated the
impact of $4/gallon petrol on the fragile US Moore’s Law is framed as a doubling of
economy. It fretted over the fiscal cliff and compute capability every 18 months. We
the impact of forthcoming tax changes. In can intuitively understand what a doubling
the stock market, following a flat year in of computer power is. What we’re very bad
2011, investors could look forward to better at understanding is what happens if compute
returns as the slow recovery from the power repeatedly doubles over 10 years.
financial crisis continued.
Along with developments in batteries,
With little attention or fanfare, Moore’s Law communications and software, the progress
marched through 2012 receiving few column that has underpinned the 147x increase in
inches. The pace at which manufacturers iPhone capability has also given us
improve computer chips had been identified autonomous vehicles, smartwatches, cloud
nearly 40 years previously and could hardly computing and cryptocurrency. It has created
be considered newsworthy. trillions of dollars of market capitalisation for
online platform companies such as Apple,
That year Intel delivered a Sandy Bridge-E Amazon and Alphabet. And it’s far from over.
Core i7 microprocessor with about 2.3 billion
transistors. However, a more profound If in 2012 you had predicted nothing more
consequence was being felt as small, than the progression and importance of
powerful and low-energy chips enabled a Moore’s Law, you could explain much of
smaller form-factor for computation. Indeed, what has happened over the subsequent
the ‘mobile transition’ became a hot topic 10 years. The lesson as investors is to
that summer and contributed to Facebook’s avoid the amygdala hijack created by
shares declining 50 per cent in value after negative stories in the daily newspapers
its IPO as investors worried it couldn’t adapt and instead focus on the predictable
to smartphones. progress that underpins many of today’s
great growth companies.
Since 2012, there have been no
headline-grabbing breakthroughs in We don’t claim to know where this will take
computer chip technology. Instead, the us by 2032, but the next 100-fold increase in
semiconductor industry has advanced to compute capability will drive change beyond
4 the same drumbeat that it did in previous the realms of science fiction.
decades: continuously miniaturising and
Moore’s Law is framed as a doubling
of compute capability every 18 months
5
Open
minds
Investment manager Kirsty Gibson describes the hunt for companies
with foundational technologies on which wider industries can be built
6
Embracing the potential of companies whose Two holdings in the strategy have built
profits may be several years off means their businesses upon the technology:
embracing uncertainty and opening your mind
to possibility. — 10x Genomics, which develops
instruments and consumables for
In his book One from Many, Visa’s founder the analysis of single cells
Dee Hock talks of minds being littered with old
furniture. The challenge is not getting new ideas — Ginkgo Bioworks, which seeks to
in but getting the old ones out. That’s because harness the power of biology to
old ideas lead to assumptions about how things make just about anything
ought to be, not what they could become. We are now considering which companies
Consider how quickly our minds jump to could be the Illuminas of the 2020s, laying the
analogies when trying to process an innovation, foundations of entirely new ways to do things.
applying it to existing business models or There’s growing evidence they may be found
products. But this might only cover a small part within fintech, where software companies are
of its potential. It’s harder to conceive of doing ‘unbundling’ and ‘re-bundling’ foundational
new things by new means. qualities of the financial system in novel and
Imagining with conviction is difficult. When potentially better ways. They may also be
John Bardeen and his colleagues invented the involved in learning, gathering and
transistor in 1947, no one predicted the iPhone. communicating, where online platforms appear
We accept that we will not predict the future, but to be enabling serendipitous gatherings of minds
we are willing to explore what might be possible. in a modern equivalent to the 18th-century
We must take our mental sweeping brushes and coffee houses of London.
try to rid our minds of old ideas, pushing each In times of change, it is also key to identify those
other to think beyond why something might not things that will remain constant. We are long
work or doesn’t fit within an existing model or term. We are growth. We have a fundamental
paradigm. We must ask what the world could belief in the asymmetry of stock market returns.
look like if a company succeeds. We look for opportunities in change. We, and
Take Illumina. When Baillie Gifford first bought you as our investors, are venturing.
the gene-sequencing company for our clients in The path for companies driving structural
2011, we had a tentative hypothesis that change may not be straight. Some paths will
sequencing could become the foundation of an weave and wend and turn out to be dead ends.
entirely new industry. Fast-forward 10 years and Others will branch out into new opportunities
this hypothesis appears to be becoming reality. and take us in directions we might not currently
be able to imagine.
8
We are living amid two great These are the fundamental software and applications – the very
infrastructure changeouts: components and core jobs of vessels for ideas and human creativity
a network, after all: to connect and ingenuity.
— the internet, upon which nodes and to transmit something
commerce, media and through them. The power of all this is expressed well
information flow in Paul Graham’s excellent essay
In other words, the following are Great Hackers. He writes: “In a
— the cloud, upon which IT is stored, critical determinants of a network’s low-tech society you don’t see much
powered, and distributed power and its ability to disrupt: variation in productivity. If you have a
Both happen to be hyper-connected tribe of nomads collecting sticks for a
— what the nodes are fire, how much more productive is the
networks. Networks whose power to
disrupt and change the world is still — what the cargo happens to be best stick gatherer going to be than the
largely untapped. worst? A factor of two? Whereas when
— what is its capacity to you hand people a complex tool like a
To understand why, let’s recall affect change computer, the variation in what they
Metcalfe’s Law. Robert Metcalfe was can do with it is enormous.”
an engineer in the early days of the To bring this to life, let’s reflect on the
internet who said that a network’s impact that the transcontinental As I read that, the question that pops
value is proportional to the square of railroad had in the US in the mid-19th to mind is: “What tool is even more
the number of its nodes – with nodes century. Its nodes were towns and complex than a computer? Where can
meaning either a participant or ports. Its cargo was freight and people. the variability be even greater?”. The
connection point that can send, All things of the material world. answer, I think, lies inside our heads
receive and/or redistribute Finite. Yet it supercharged American and hearts: imagination, creativity,
information. This law is supposed industry. No mean feat! human ingenuity.
to hold true whether it is applied to a Contrast that with the nodes and cargo Thanks to these new infrastructures,
network of landline phones or users of today’s new communication the tools are at hand for
of a social media app. infrastructures. Their nodes are, entrepreneurial-minded individuals
I’d add a wrinkle and suggest that the theoretically, every human and any to address problems that couldn’t
value of a network is also a function machine connected to them. And be dealt with before. And they can
of the capabilities (or power) of the instead of transporting people, cattle, do so by collaborating creatively and
nodes in the network AND of the and crops, they transport bits and imaginatively with others in real time
capabilities (or power) of the cargo bytes. Not merely ‘data’ but also and on a global scale in ways that were
that the network carries. not possible until now.
As a communication network grows, more unique connections become possible, increasing its value
9
Going
in circles
Client director Ben James explores the scale of the opportunity available
to companies that take active roles within the circular economy
10
“Please tell me you’re not going to talk about
ESG,” one of our clients said recently. “It’s all
anyone’s talking about. I’m getting ESG fatigue
and feel guilty for existing!”
The rise of Italian and then Flemish cities towards But Bitcoin offers a toolkit for constructing
the end of the Middle Ages was arguably responsible significantly more decentralised systems. By
for the cultural and economic rebirth of Europe we providing a means to treat money in as open and
now know as the Renaissance. decentralised a manner as the internet treats
information, Bitcoin may enable the rebuilding of
People found protection from the feudalism that many of the benefits of the walled gardens without
dominated the continent at the time. Hidden behind the need for a trusted intermediary. And the
city walls, they could more easily practise a trade or consumer internet may be only the first and most
engage in commerce. Florentine bankers would obvious candidate for overhaul.
finance weavers from Ghent, who sold their wares
throughout Europe. Together these cities amounted Harnessing the first true digital scarcity may
to a complex network of entrepreneurial individuals have tremendous implications for capital markets,
able to experiment and innovate. while the digital bridge from energy to value may
give power grids a novel way to achieve balance,
History is in fact full of such places bursting storing and releasing value and energy as consumer
with the creative interchange of free people. demand requires.
Eighteenth-century Edinburgh similarly radiated
during the Enlightenment. Today, the American All this essentially relies on openness. Anyone
West, as symbolised by Hollywood and Silicon can read the Bitcoin code to see what they’re
Valley, is a new centre of creative life. opting in to, and every member of the network
can independently send and verify transactions.
While all such places are distinct, they resemble Bitcoin is a new city state, protected by walls of
each other by having a vibrant economic and code and energy. Bitcoin is Venice. Or at least it
cultural life. We and other growth investors are has the potential to equal and perhaps surpass
optimistic about the future and thus naturally La Serenissima.
drawn to finding and financing tomorrow’s Venice.
So where might it be? It is too early to tell what creative sparks might fly
when people can circumvent traditional financial
One possibility is that it is both nowhere and and governmental monetary regimes. But given
everywhere. It might not be a geographic location that Bitcoin is the first such network that could
so much as a space anyone can join if they feel welcome the entire population of Earth, the scale
so inclined. That is perhaps the promise of the of its contribution might outdo anything we have
internet. Anyone can join a network of free creation yet seen.
and exchange.
14
Progress, as defined by growth in In Deutsch’s terms, ‘good In his 1998 paper Recombinant
wealth and wellbeing, is not explanations’ are those that are hard Growth, Harvard economist Martin
guaranteed. We tend to take it for to vary, in the sense that changing Weitzman breaks innovation into
granted because it has been a the details would ruin the theory. two phases:
consistent feature of our lives. For example, our explanation as to
why we have seasons. If you — a generation phase, where two
However, the same cannot be said assume even a small shift in the pre-existing ideas are combined
for our distant ancestors. For them, planet’s axis tilt, the expected
stasis was the norm. Indeed, the last — a processing phase, where the
outcomes change and become new idea is tested
several hundred years represent the incompatible with the evidence.
only period in which significant Weitzman points to Thomas
progress has been sustained over Knowledge creation became a Edison’s search for a filament for his
many generations. compounding process that has ‘electric candle’ as an example of
fed on itself. The more existing this combinatorial process. Edison
The late 1600s marked a turning knowledge we have, the more new
point with the Scientific tried 6,000 different materials
knowledge we can create. before settling on a carbonised strip
Revolution, the Enlightenment, and
the subsequent Industrial It is also a never-ending process. of Japanese bamboo.
Revolution. It was when the search The creation of new knowledge The wonderful thing about the
for knowledge shifted away from helps us solve existing problems. combinatorial process is that each
customs and authority towards But this, in turn, creates new fresh idea becomes fuel for further
conjecture and criticism. problems to be solved. new ideas.
People rejected mysticism in favour If we accept that the capacity The economist Matt Clancy
of testable theories. Or as the for progress is unbounded, an explores this further in his blog,
physicist David Deutsch puts it: important follow-on question is: What’s New Under The Sun?
“All progress, both theoretical and what shape might it take? Will
practical, has resulted from a single the rate of progress slow down He points out that once the
human activity: the quest for what I over time? Or remain steady? lightbulb existed, it paved the way
call good explanations.” Or even accelerate? for further inventions that used
lightbulbs as a technological
component. For example, car
headlights and helicopter spotlights.
“Combinatorial processes
grow slowly until they explode,”
The more existing he observed.
knowledge we have, the The maths behind this process is
staggering. The equation involved
more new knowledge outstrips even the exponential
we can create growth of Moore’s Law. And if
we assume that new ideas can be
created by combining more than
two existing ideas, the maths
becomes even more extreme. 15
Weitzman’s model suggests that the In this context, optimism about the future
processing of ideas eventually becomes isn’t only rational, it is self-fulfilling.
the rate-limiting factor.
It is the nature of progress that there will
Ideas grow super-exponentially, but the always be new problems to solve. And with
economy grows exponentially, which means each solution, we take a step forward. This is
the resources available to explore ideas are an exciting backdrop for investors,
limiting. Because of this, rather than entrepreneurs and the world at large.
accelerating indefinitely, progress settles
into an exponential pattern. It also implies that the key to progress,
as much as anything, is belief in infinite
This is an interesting hypothesis because it progress. Because it is our belief in the
is consistent with what we see in the GDP fallibility of our current assumptions and
growth numbers. in the solvability of problems that drives us
forward. In this context, optimism about the
Others, including Clancy, have since future isn’t only rational, it is self-fulfilling.
challenged this conclusion, suggesting
reasons why progress could yet lose steam.
But I have confidence that the combined
computational capacity of humans and
machines will continue to grow over time,
whether through AI, quantum computing Optimism about the
or technologies we have yet to imagine.
future isn’t only rational,
It is the nature of progress that there will
always be new problems to solve. And with it is self-fulfilling
each solution, we take a step forward.
16
17
Purpose maximisers,
not profit maximisers
Investment analyst Saad Malik discusses how recognising what motivates workers
can help companies increase their chance of success
18
These ‘purpose
Increasing numbers of people are turning to some
of the biggest and most complex problems and maximisers’ will need to
building systems and companies to solve them. draw on deep wells of
We call them ‘purpose maximisers’. Two
individuals spring to mind:
energy and resilience
1. Luis von Ahn, co-founder of Duolingo
The Guatemalan entrepreneur aims to develop One example is open-source software. It lets
the world’s best educational tools and make developers use a publicly available codebase to
them universally available. Duolingo’s build applications. It also allows users to contribute
language teaching app already has more than to the source code, making the software better for
42 million monthly active users, and it is all users.
working on a maths-centric follow-up.
Academic research suggests that developers
2. RJ Scaringe, founder of Rivian willingly donate ideas to open-source projects
The US engineer’s electric car company is on a because they appreciate the community’s value:
mission to keep the world adventurous. That namely, a shared sense of purpose, creative
stems from his belief that the closer you feel to problem solving and intellectual stimulation.
nature, the more likely you will be to take care
of it. Many open-source enterprise software businesses
have floated over the last two years, demonstrating
A clear sense of purpose drives both chief the model’s success, including Hashi Corp.
executives and the teams they lead. That’s good
because they face challenges that require more than B Corps are another example of purpose-structured
profit motivation alone. groups. The corporations define impact and the
service of all stakeholders as their reasons to exist.
That’s not to say that profits don’t matter. But they In doing so, they abandon the traditional
are necessary rather than sufficient: those involved dichotomy of ‘for-profit’ versus ‘non-profit’.
also require deep wells of energy and resilience.
The movement, which started in 2007, now
Daniel Pink explores this further in his book Drive. includes over 4,500 companies across more than
He challenges assumptions that profit and pay are 75 countries and virtually every industry.
the best way to motivate workers, at least when it Lemonade exemplifies this spirit. The firm uses
comes to creative, non-routine tasks. Instead, he technology and behavioural economics to make
says motivation comes from: insurance more accessible and fair.
— autonomy – the freedom to decide what task In the coming decades, we believe a growing
you do, when you do it, with whom and how awareness of our impact on the planet and the
— the pursuit of mastery – a sense that through need to address inequality, among other societal
effort and practice, you keep getting better at challenges, will drive more people and groups.
an activity They will benefit from a convergence of
technological building blocks, such as cloud
— purpose – a sense you are serving a cause computing, application development, machine
greater than yourself learning and more.
Purpose is increasingly central to how companies There is no shortage of problems to solve. But 19
structure themselves. That leads to exciting these purpose maximisers should give you a
investment opportunities. reason to be optimistic.
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