Tutorial for SSG 817 to be submitted October 16,

2021
GROUP A

Question 1
When testing the sensitivity of the Bluefin Tuna model with the existing policy to
changes in parameters and uncertain functions, the following trajectories are
obtained:

Which conclusion could be drawn?

a.The model is both numerically sensitive and policy sensitive
b.The model is behavior mode sensitive, but not numerically sensitive
c.The model is numerically sensitive, but not behavior mode sensitive
d.The model is numerically sensitive, but not policy sensitive

Question 2
Consider the simulation model below concerning a manufacturing company we
recently made. Remember: each final product assembled in the assembly line
requires 2 components from the component line.

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Simulation of this model generates the behavior displayed above. Which of the
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 statements below concerning the model and the corresponding behavior is
correct?
a. Although the structure and specification of the model are wrong, the behavior
generated with it are plausible and realistic.
b. This behavior is impossible. It must be caused by a numeric integration
error, i.e. an inadequate combination of integration method and time step.
c. The model was modeled in a non-protective manner in view of learning from it
and designing policies to prevent undesirable (and impossible) dynamics
from happening.
d. None of the statements above is correct

Question 3
The real cause of the current economic depression is, according to Nobel Prize
winner Paul Krug- man systemic: ‘If too many players in the economy find
themselves in debt trouble at the same time, their collective efforts to get out of
that trouble are self-defeating. If millions of troubled homeowners try to sell their
houses to pay off their mortgages – or, for that matter, if their homes are seized by
creditors, who then try to sell the foreclosed properties – the result is plunging home
prices, which puts even more homeowners underwater and leads to even more
forced sales. And if things get bad enough, the economy can suffer from deflation –
falling prices across the board – which means that the purchasing power of the dollar
rises, and hence that the real burden of debt rises even if the dollar value of debts is
falling. The latter is the main explanation of the depression we’re in right now.’
Which of the following archetypes corresponds best to this situation?

a. Eroding goals
b. Escalation
c. Tragedy of the commons
d. None of these archetypes suits this situation

Question 4
Given the model on the depletion of ‘natural gas’ displayed above: what are the

units of the variable demand gas growth if the units of gas use are m3/Y ear?

a. m3/Y ear
b. m3/Y ear2
c. m3
d. None of the previous answers is correct

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 Question 5

The causal loop diagram displayed above summarizes the structure of a model on
burglaries (HB stands for House Breaking or burglary, and OC stands for Organized
Crime). Which of the following statements about possible behaviors of the
model/system cannot be explained by this causal loop diagram:

a. The number of burglaries will go down if the number of acceptable burglaries goes
down.
b. If the chance of getting caught in neighboring countries goes down, then so will the
burglaries commit in the Netherlands, resulting in a lower number of opportunity
thefts since there are fewer opportunities for simple burglaries through increased
media attention and increased vigilance.
c. Organized crime has a strong interest in committing burglaries during peaks of
burglaries by opportunist thieves. The chance of being caught is likely to be
lowest during these peaks since the police is likely to be understaffed for the
peak in burglaries.
d. Opportunity thieves have good reasons to commit burglaries when the opportunity
is highest and vigilance is lowest, which is seasonal and dependent on media
attention given to many or large burglaries.

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 Question 6
Which of the following statements is not correct?
a. Each stock variable needs to be embedded in at least one feedback loop.
b. A dominant positive feedback loops generates reinforcing growth or decay of all
variables in it.
c. Variables in a loop are both cause and effect of changes in the values of the
variables in it.
d. Systems of two coupled negative feedback loops do not necessarily generate
converging be- havior.

Question 7

How many feedback loops are there in the stock-flow diagram displayed above?
a. 2 feedback loops: 1 positive and 1 negative
b. 6 feedback loops: 1 positive and 5 negative
c. 7 feedback loops: 2 positive and 5 negative
d. 8 feedback loops: 2 positive and 6 negative

Question 8

Consider the stock-flow structure displayed above in which inStock2 = inStock1 =

in and
out = inStock1 = inStock2. What does this structure correspond to?

a. The first tier in a bull-whip structure

b. A negative feedback loop with a delay
c. A first order material delay
d. None of the previous answers is correct

Question 9
Thedownloaded
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what is wrong?
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 a. The parameter values: such wrong behaviors are often caused by wrong
parameter values.
b. The model equations: the flows should have been specified as non-negative
flows.
c. The combination of integration method and time step: this is a numeric
integration error.
d. Nothing is wrong. If that is the model that generated this output, then it simply
is the right model behavior.

Question 10

The left hand side graph in the above figure shows the behavior of two out of three
flows of the stock-flow diagram displayed on the right. The third flow is proportional
to the Stock. Which of the following figures displays possible behaviors for the Stock
and outflow1 that could have been generated with the above structure?

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 (a) (b)

(c) (d)

GROUP C

Question 11
In densely populated urban areas (such as New York, Mexico City, or Istanbul), the
real estate demand (i.e. demand for apartments, offices, houses, etc.) is on the one
hand highly sensitive to prices. Once there is a decline in the property prices (which
happens when the real estate supply is higher than the real estate demand),
demand rises rapidly. The construction sector, on the other hand, initiates new
projects based on the demand for properties. When there is an increase in demand,
new projects are initiated immediately. Construction projects are completed with
relatively long delays of about 2-3 years.
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What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices if many

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 construction companies operate in these urban regions and they are not aware of the
construction projects initiated by others?
a. Continued increase
b. Continued decrease
c. Some form of oscillations
d. Nothing can be said given the limited information provided above

Question 12
Which of the following statements concerning MAX and MIN functions is not
correct?
a. A MAX function can be used to keep auxiliary variables from adopting
negative values.
b. A -MIN(-. . . ,0) function can be used to keep auxiliary variables from
adopting positive values.
c. MIN(MAX(. . . ,. . . ),. . . ) constructions can be used to keep auxiliary
variables within a particular interval (in other words: between a lower
bound and an upper bound).
d. MIN(MAX(. . . ,. . . ),. . . ) constructions can be used to keep auxiliary
variables outside a particular interval.

Question 13
As customer changes cause a project to fall behind, the management can
accelerate the schedule, use overtime and hire more people, forming
negative feedbacks designed to get the project back on track (solid lines).

However, each of these negative loops triggers side effects that undercut the
intended effects, forming vicious cycles (positive feedbacks, shown by the
dashed lines)

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 Draw inference from diagram above, kindly discuss each of the side effects
triggered by each of the negative loops. (12 marks)

Question 14

Manufacturing Order Fulfillment Lead Customer Acceptance Lead

Lead Time Time Time
75 days 22 days 85 days

Using the table and pie-chart above,

a. Discuss Supply Chain Strategy and design (6 marks)
b. What does the table and pie-chart above reveal in a supply chain cycle?
(6 marks)

Group D
Question 15
a. Plot a simulation diagram of how mobile telecommunication system
works. (4 marks)
b. Draw a simulation diagram of money transfer of $USD4,000 between
Zenith Bank, Lagos and Citi Bank, New York. (4 marks)
c. Using the 5 steps of modelling process design an AI to solve traffic
congestion at a particular busy junction in Yaba, Lagos. (4 marks)

Question 16
a. Develop a casual loop diagram capturing important feedbacks, both
positive and negative, to explain the preference and dominance of
PHCN in the economy over Generating set in Lagos State. (6 marks)
b. What are the likely impact of the outcome on the dynamics and
strategies for success in the Power Sector market in the next five
years in Lagos State. (6 marks)

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