UNIVERSITY OF LAGOS

Department of System Engineering

Programme: Professional M.Sc
2019/2020 First Semester Examination
SSG 817: Systems Methodology and Dynamics
Time: 3hrs (4pm – 7pm)
Date: Saturday April 24, 2021
Continuous Assessment Test: Attempt all questions.

SECTION A

Question 1
When testing the sensitivity of the Bluefin Tuna model with the existing policy to changes
in parameters and uncertain functions, the following trajectories are obtained:

Which conclusion could be drawn?

a.The model is both numerically sensitive and policy sensitive
b.The model is behavior mode sensitive, but not numerically sensitive
c.The model is numerically sensitive, but not behavior mode sensitive
d.The model is numerically sensitive, but not policy sensitive

Question 2
Consider the simulation model below concerning a manufacturing company we recently
made. Remember: each final product assembled in the assembly line requires 2
components from the component line.

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 Simulation of this model generates the behavior displayed above. Which of the
statements below concerning the model and the corresponding behavior is correct?
a. Although the structure and specification of the model are wrong, the behavior
generated with it are plausible and realistic.
b. This behavior is impossible. It must be caused by a numeric integration error, i.e.
an inadequate combination of integration method and time step.
c. The model was modeled in a non-protective manner in view of learning from it and
designing policies to prevent undesirable (and impossible) dynamics from
happening.
d. None of the statements above is correct

Question 3
The real cause of the current economic depression is, according to Nobel Prize winner Paul
Krug- man systemic: ‘If too many players in the economy find themselves in debt trouble
at the same time, their collective efforts to get out of that trouble are self-defeating. If
millions of troubled homeowners try to sell their houses to pay off their mortgages – or, for that
matter, if their homes are seized by creditors, who then try to sell the foreclosed properties
– the result is plunging home prices, which puts even more homeowners underwater and
leads to even more forced sales. And if things get bad enough, the economy can suffer
from deflation – falling prices across the board – which means that the purchasing power of
the dollar rises, and hence that the real burden of debt rises even if the dollar value of debts is
falling. The latter is the main explanation of the depression we’re in right now.’ Which of the
following archetypes corresponds best to this situation?

a. Eroding goals
b. Escalation
c. Tragedy of the commons
d. None of these archetypes suits this situation

Question 4
Given the model on the depletion of ‘natural gas’ displayed above: what are the units of

the variable demand gas growth if the units of gas use are m3 /Y ear?

a. m3 /Y ear
b. m3 /Y ear2
c. m3
d. None of the previous answers is correct

Question
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 The causal loop diagram displayed above summarizes the structure of a model on burglaries
(HB stands for House Breaking or burglary, and OC stands for Organized Crime). Which of
the following statements about possible behaviors of the model/system cannot be
explained by this causal loop diagram:

a. The number of burglaries will go down if the number of acceptable burglaries goes
down.
b. If the chance of getting caught in neighboring countries goes down, then so will the
burglaries commit in the Netherlands, resulting in a lower number of opportunity thefts
since there are fewer opportunities for simple burglaries through increased media attention
and increased vigilance.
c. Organized crime has a strong interest in committing burglaries during peaks of
burglaries by opportunist thieves. The chance of being caught is likely to be lowest
during these peaks since the police is likely to be understaffed for the peak in
burglaries.
d. Opportunity thieves have good reasons to commit burglaries when the opportunity is
highest and vigilance is lowest, which is seasonal and dependent on media attention
given to many or large burglaries.

Question 6
Which of the following statements is not correct?
a. Each stock variable needs to be embedded in at least one feedback loop.
b. A dominant positive feedback loops generates reinforcing growth or decay of all
variables in it.
c. Variables in a loop are both cause and effect of changes in the values of the variables
in it.
d. Systems of two coupled negative feedback loops do not necessarily generate
converging be- havior.

Question
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 How many feedback loops are there in the stock-flow diagram displayed above?
a. 2 feedback loops: 1 positive and 1 negative
b. 6 feedback loops: 1 positive and 5 negative
c. 7 feedback loops: 2 positive and 5 negative
d. 8 feedback loops: 2 positive and 6 negative

Question 8

Consider the stock-flow structure displayed above in which inStock2 = inStock1 = in and
out = inStock1 = inStock2. What does this structure correspond to?

a. The first tier in a bull-whip structure

b. A negative feedback loop with a delay
c. A first order material delay
d. None of the previous answers is correct

Question 9
The runs displayed below were generated with the SD simulation model next to it: what is
wrong?

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 a. The parameter values: such wrong behaviors are often caused by wrong parameter
values.
b. The model equations: the flows should have been specified as non-negative flows.
c. The combination of integration method and time step: this is a numeric integration error.
d. Nothing is wrong. If that is the model that generated this output, then it simply is the
right model behavior.

Question 10

The left hand side graph in the above figure shows the behavior of two out of three flows of
the stock-flow diagram displayed on the right. The third flow is proportional to the Stock.
Which of the following figures displays possible behaviors for the Stock and outflow1 that
could have been generated with the above structure?

(a) (b)

(c) (d)
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 Question 11
In densely populated urban areas (such as New York, Mexico City, or Istanbul), the real
estate demand (i.e. demand for apartments, offices, houses, etc.) is on the one hand highly
sensitive to prices. Once there is a decline in the property prices (which happens when the
real estate supply is higher than the real estate demand), demand rises rapidly. The
construction sector, on the other hand, initiates new projects based on the demand for
properties. When there is an increase in demand, new projects are initiated immediately.
Construction projects are completed with relatively long delays of about 2-3 years.
What kind of dynamics would you expect to see in property prices if many construction
companies operate in these urban regions and they are not aware of the construction projects
initiated by others?
a. Continued increase
b. Continued decrease
c. Some form of oscillations
d. Nothing can be said given the limited information provided above

Question 12
Which of the following statements concerning MAX and MIN functions is not correct?
a. A MAX function can be used to keep auxiliary variables from adopting negative
values.
b. A -MIN(-. . . ,0) function can be used to keep auxiliary variables from adopting
positive values.
c. MIN(MAX(. . . ,. . . ),. . . ) constructions can be used to keep auxiliary variables within
a particular interval (in other words: between a lower bound and an upper
bound).
d. MIN(MAX(. . . ,. . . ),. . . ) constructions can be used to keep auxiliary variables
outside a particular interval.

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 Question 1
As customer changes cause a project to fall behind, the management can
accelerate the schedule, use overtime and hire more people, forming negative
feedbacks designed to get the project back on track (solid lines).

However, each of these negative loops triggers side effects that undercut the
intended effects, forming vicious cycles (positive feedbacks, shown by the
dashed lines)

Draw inference from diagram above, kindly discuss each of the side effects
triggered by each of the negative loops. (12 marks)

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 Question 2

Manufacturing Order Fulfillment Lead Customer Acceptance Lead

Lead Time Time Time
75 days 22 days 85 days

Using the table and pie-chart above,

a. Discuss Supply Chain Strategy and design (6 marks)
b. What does the table and pie-chart above reveal in a supply chain cycle?
(6 marks)

Question 3
a. Plot a simulation diagram of how mobile telecommunication system works.
(4 marks)
b. Draw a simulation diagram of money transfer of $USD4,000 between Zenith
Bank, Lagos and Citi Bank, New York. (4 marks)
c. Using the 5 steps of modelling process design an AI to solve traffic
congestion at a particular busy junction in Yaba, Lagos. (4 marks)

Question 4
a. Develop a casual loop diagram capturing important feedbacks, both
positive and negative, to explain the preference and dominance of
PHCN in the economy over Generating set in Lagos State. (6 marks)
b. What are the likely impact of the outcome on the dynamics and strategies
for success in the Power Sector market in the next five years in Lagos
State. (6 marks)

Question 5.
Using the diagram below, what are the inference from the systems dynamics in
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effects triggered by each of the negative loops. (12 marks)
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