IS102 Computer as an Analysis Tool

IS102 Computer as an Analysis Tool

2016-17 Term 2 Final Exam
20 April/8:30am, 2017

INSTRUCTIONS TO CANDIDATES
 Time allowed for this examination paper is 2 hours.
 This examination paper contains TWO (2) questions and comprises Twelve (12) pages
inclusive of this instruction sheet. You are required to answer ALL questions within the
spaces provided in the examination paper.
 This is an OPEN BOOK examination.
 You are ALLOWED to use a Laptop but must DISABLE ALL NETWORK CONNECTIONS.
 There shall be NO ENQUIRY during the exam. State any assumptions if necessary when
you answer the questions.

Student Name: __________________________

Seat No

Section: G________________ Exam Venue: _____________________

Instructor Name: _______ _________________________

Marks Awarded

Question 1 12

Question 2 13

TOTAL 25

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IS102 Computer as an Analysis Tool

Question 1 (12 marks)

Out of your passion for games, you have decided to start a café at SMU called “GameNation”
with a selection of popular board games. You have set the following price scheme:
(1) For Non-SMU customers: the hourly rate is $10 if they play for less than one hour;
$8.5 from 1 hour up to 4 hours (excluding 4 hours); $6 from 4 hours up to 8 hours
(excluding 8 hours); $5 from 8 hours onwards, as shown in the “Others” column in
Column C of Table 1 (See Figure 1).
(2) For SMU customers: the corresponding hourly rates are shown likewise in the “SMU”
column in Column D of Table 1.
(3) The price will not be rounded up to the next whole hour, but prorated based on the
actual play duration. For example, for a play duration of 1 hour 30 minutes, SMU
customers would be charged $11.25 (=$7.50 + $7.50/2).

In addition, customers can buy $20 game coupons allowing them to pay for for 4 hours.
However, if customers decide to use coupons, the number of coupons used must be
sufficient to cover the entire play duration. For example, if you play 4 hours 20 minutes,
you must use two coupons. Alternatively, you can pay by the hourly rate (which is $6 per
hour for “Others” or $5.50 for “SMU” respectively). We assume that customers will compare
the two options and decide on their “preferred charge” to pay.

Figure 1

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IS102 Computer as an Analysis Tool

Part A (3 marks)
According to the template given in Table 2 (Figure1), please fill in the formulas in Row 13 to
compute the charge, without and with using coupons. Note that the formulas must work
when using the fill function down the table.
Cell Formula Marks
=E13-D13
F13 0.25

=INDEX($B$4:$D$7,MATCH(F13*24,$B$4:$B$7,1),MATCH(C13,$B$3:$D
$3,0))
G13 OR 1.0
=INDEX($C$4:$D$7,MATCH(F13*24,$B$4:$B$7,1),MATCH(C13,$C$3:$D
$3,0))
=G13*F13*24
H13 0.25

=ROUNDUP(F13*24/4,0)
I13 0.5

=I13*INDEX($C$8:$D$8,1,MATCH(C13,$C$3:$D$3,0))
J13 OR 0.75
=I13*INDEX($C$8:$D$8,1, MATCH(C13,$C$3:$D$3,0))
=MIN(H13,J13)
K13 0.25

Part B (1.5 mark)

Suppose an SMU student has only S$30, and starts to play at 16:00:00. What is the latest
time when he will have to end play? (Provide your answer in format of hh:mm:ss)

21 27 16
The latest time you will have to end is: ___________:___________ :__________

Part C (1 mark)
Suppose a customer gets lucky and wins a grand prize of $2000 for being the 100th customer
of this café. He is offered with two options: (I) take the $2000 now; or (II) take the series of
money at the end of each month for the 6 months (Month 0 to Month 5) as shown in Table
3 (Month 0 means now). Which option should he take, assuming the yearly interest is 6%?
To get the credit, you must explain how you arrive at that conclusion.

We should take the $2000 dollar now as the sum of all the reward money with the
present time as reference is $1983, less than $2000.

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Figure 2

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IS102 Computer as an Analysis Tool

Part D (1.5 marks)

Table 4 (See Figure 2) shows the Play Duration Distribution as observed at this café. It is
found that 70% of the customers are SMU customers while the rest 30% are other
customers. For both groups of customers, the distribution of their play durations and their
average play duration are shown in Column N and Column O respectively.

As the manager of this café, you want to compute the expected revenue based on the
information in Table 4. Each customer will compare their charge without coupon (Column Q)
and with coupon (Column U) and decide on their preferred charge (Column W). Based on
the customer distribution as given in Column N, provide the formula for computing the total
expected revenue from both groups of customers. Please also compute the total expected
revenue for all customers based on the customer composition as given in Column M.
Cell Formula Marks
=SUMPRODUCT(N13:N16,W13:W16)
W17 0.5

=SUMPRODUCT(N18:N21,W18:W21)
W22 0.5

=W17*0.3+W22*0.7
W23 0.5

Part E (5 marks)
To simplify implementation, you have decided to offer the same rates (to be revised in cells
E4:E7, see Table 1, keeping the coupon rate unchanged) for both groups of customers from
now on. However, you want to thank the SMU community for their support of the café by
giving SMU customers a total of 12% reduction in the revenue from this group, as given in
Cell Z22.
Complete the model for Table 1 and Table 4 to compute the expected revenue based on
revised rates. Cell Y22 is the reduction in the preferred total charge (i.e., revenue) for SMU
customers.

Cell Formula Marks

=(W22-X22)/W22
Y22 0.5

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 IS102 Computer as an Analysis Tool

Please use Solver to adjust the current hourly rates (keeping the coupon rate unchanged) in
Table 1 to provide the revised rates in Column E to achieve maximum total revenue for the
café.
Solver
Formula Marks
Setting
X23
Target Cell 0.5
By Changing
Variable E4:E7 0.5
Cells
(1) D4:D7>=E4:E7

(2) E4:E6>=E5:E7

(3) Y22 = Z22

Constraints 2
(4) E9 >=E8

Please provide the optimal solution returned by Solver in the following Table:
Cell Value Marks
5.85
E4
5.85
E5
5 1.5
E6

E7 5

X23 19.97

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Question 2 (13 marks)

Hundreds of thousands of people pass through airports every day. Proper airport security
measures are in place to ensure their safety and to prevent any threats or potentially
dangerous situations from arising. These measures attempt to minimize (or, ideally
eliminate) the chances of any dangerous items or threats entering an aircraft.

Enhancing security is not the only performance measure of airport security checks. How
long the passengers have to wait in queue is also an important consideration for the security
departments. Currently, there are two different queueing policies they can choose from.
(1) Centralized Policy (CP): All passengers join a single centralized queue to wait for
their security screening. They then go through one of the multiple security check
stations in the centralized checking area.
(2) Decentralized Policy (DP): Passengers proceed directly to their departure gate,
where they form a queue for security clearance. They then go through one single
security check station located at the gate.

Technically, the Centralized Policy can be viewed as ONE multi-server queue (multiple
security check stations serving a long centralized queue), and the Decentralized Policy can
be viewed as MULTIPLE single-server queues (single security check station serving each
individual queue). The queue at each gate under Decentralized Policy is a single-server
queue.

The security checks in the three existing terminals (T1, T2 and T3) at the Singapore Changi
Airport follow the Decentralized Policy. However, Changi Airport Terminal 4 (T4) which is
scheduled to open later this year, will likely follow the Centralized Policy.

In this question, we aim to simulate the queue(s) of security check, for the situations under
both the Centralized Policy and the Decentralized Policy.

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Assumptions:
1. The Inter-arrival Time of each passenger group (time interval between the arrivals of
passenger groups) follows an Exponential Distribution with the average value given
in Cell C4 (see Figure 3).

2. The Group Size (number of passengers in each group) is a random variable with four
possible sizes: 1, 2, 3, and 4. Table 1 Column F shows the corresponding probabilities.

3. All passengers belonging to one group will go through the security check together,
and will be screened at the same security check station sequentially.
The Regular Check Time (in minutes) for each passenger group is a random variable
that follows a normal distribution, with mean (Table 1 Column G) and standard
deviation (Table 1 Column H) that depend on the Group Size. The regular check will
take at least one minute (Cell L4). i.e., the Regular Check Time simulated less than
one minute has to be set to one minute.

4. After the regular check, some passenger groups will be randomly picked to go
through additional checks, which may include body search, dog sniffing and
ransacking of luggage. A Special Team is dedicated to such additional checks. When
the special team is available, they will randomly decide whether the passenger
group that has just ended their regular check needs the additional checks or not.
The probability of being selected for additional checks will depend on the Group Size.
Table 1 Column I shows the corresponding probabilities. When the special team is
unavailable (busy checking another passenger group), no passenger groups will
undergo additional checks.

The time for additional checks follows a uniform distribution with minimum value of
two minutes (Cell M4) and maximum value of four minutes (Cell N4). The Check End
Time for the passenger group selected for additional checks equals the Regular
Check End Time + their Additional Checks Time. The Check End Time for the
passenger group without additional checks is just the Regular Check End Time. For
example, assuming a passenger group ends the regular check at 11:00 am, and if the
group is not selected for the additional checks, the group’s Check End Time is just
11:00 am. However, if the group is selected for the additional checks, and the
Additional Checks Time is three minutes, then the group’s Check End Time is 11:03
am. In this case, the special team will be unavailable between 11:00 am and 11:03
am, and will not perform additional checks on any other passenger groups during
this period.

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Figure3

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IS102 Computer as an Analysis Tool

Part A (0.5 mark)

Complete the Lookup Table in Table 1, Column J, Row 4 to Row 7 using the information
provided in the table. The Table should be designed in such a way that we can use it to
perform LOOKUP() to get a random group size.
Cumulative Relative
Frequency (CRF)
0%
35%
65%
90%
100%
Part B (0.5 mark)
Let Cell C4 denote the average inter-arrival time of group (hh:mm:sss). Provide the formula
in Cell C16 for the simulation of inter-arrival time. Using this formula and Fill (downward),
complete the simulation for 50 groups (C16:C65).
Cell Formula Marks
=-$C$4*LN(1-RAND())
C16 OR =-$C$4*LN(RAND()) 0.5

Part C (2.5 marks)

Let Cell C10 denote the number of security check stations. We want to simulate the Group
Size in Column D, and Regular Check Time (hh:mm:ss) in Column E. Provide the formula in
Cell D16 and E16. Using these formulas and Fill (downward), complete the simulation for 50
groups (D16:E65).
Cell Formula Marks
=LOOKUP(RAND(),$J$3:$J$6,$E$4:$E$7)

D16 0.5

=MAX($L$4/60/24,NORM.INV(RAND(),LOOKUP(D16,$E$4:$E$7,$G$4:$G$
7)/60/24,LOOKUP(D16,$E$4:$E$7,$H$4:$H$7)/60/24))

E16 2

Please also fill the Cell F16 to H16. Using these formulas and Fill (downward), complete the
simulation for 50 groups (F16:H65).

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Part D (3.5 marks)

We want to simulate the Special Team Available Status (“Yes” or “No”) in Column I,
Additional Checks Status (“Yes” or “No”) in Column J, Check End Time (hh:mm:ss) in
Column K, and Special Team Available Time (hh:mm:ss) in Column L. Specifically, if a
passenger group is selected for the additional checks, its Special Team Available Time is
defined as its Check End Time (which means the special team will become available again at
its Check End Time); otherwise, if a passenger group is not selected for the additional checks,
its Special Team Available Time can be set as a dummy value of 00:00:00 (which means this
group has no impact on the availability of the special team). Please notice that we need cells
in Column L as inputs into the formula of cells in Column I.
Using these formulas and Fill (downward), complete the simulation for 50 groups (I16:L65).
Cell Formula Marks
=IF(MAX($L$15:L15)<H16,"Yes","No")
I16 1

=IF(AND(I16="Yes",RAND()<LOOKUP(D16,$E$4:$E$7,$I$4:$I$7)),"Yes","N
o")
J16 1

=IF(J16="No",H16,H16+($M$4+RAND()*($N$4-$M$4))/24/60)
K16 1

=IF(J16="No",0,K16)
L16 0.5

Please also fill the Cell M16 to O16. Using these formulas and Fill (downward), complete the
simulation for 50 groups (M16:O65). To avoid confusion, Group System Time in Column N is
the total time a passenger group spent in the security checking system. e.g., if a passenger
group arrives at 10:00:00, and finishes regular check and additional checks at 10:10:00, its
Group System Time is 10 minutes (00:10:00), regardless its group size.

Part E (3 marks)
There are various measures to quantify the service performance level of the queue. Please
provide the formulas for the following three commonly used measures:
(1) Average Wait Time per Passenger (Cell G10). Notice that we assume all people
within a same passenger group will experience the same wait time.
(2) The Proportion (in percentage) of Passengers with “Good Experience” (Cell H10),
i.e., with wait time in the queue no more than a threshold time 5 minutes (which is
specified in Cell E10).
(3) Utilization of Regular Check Stations (Cell I10), i.e., percentage of time that the
regular security check stations are busy in screening passengers.

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Cell Formula Marks

=SUMPRODUCT(D16:D65,M16:M65)/SUM(D16:D65)
G10 1

=SUMIF(M16:M65,"<="&E10,D16:D65)/SUM(D16:D65)
H10 1

=SUM(E16:E65)/(C10*(H65-H15))
I10 1

Part F (3 marks)
Now that your 50-group simulation is complete for a specific number of security check
stations and inter-arrival time for passenger group, Changi airport wants you to perform a
larger scale Monte Carlo simulation (e.g., multiple iterations). Show two sets of quantitative
summaries of your simulation results of the Average Wait Time per Passenger. Specifically,
one set of simulations for the “Centralized Policy” with the number of security check
stations as changing values (assuming inter-arrival time of group is 20 seconds). The other
set of simulations for the Decentralized Policy as a single-server queue in front of each gate
with the inter-arrival time of passenger group as changing values. Briefly discuss the
simulation results by comparing them (2-4 sentences)
Keep in mind that in the case of Decentralized Policy, because each group of passengers will
be directed to different individual gate for security check, the average inter-arrival time for
passenger group at each gate could be significantly extended compared to the case of
Centralized Policy.

Simulation of number of stations for Centralized Policy

Number of Regular Security Check Stations
1 2 3 4 5
Avg 1:07:32 0:28:46 0:16:10 0:09:50 0:06:23

Simulation of inter-arrival time for Decentralized Policy

Inter-arrival Time of Passenger Group
0:00:20 0:00:40 0:01:00 0:01:20 0:01:40
Avg 1:07:09 0:59:30 0:51:34 0:43:45 0:38:02

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END OF EXAM PAPER

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