1NR – European Autonomy

1NR – Impact
The disadvantage outweighs and turns case

The plan prevents effective European self-defense and decks multilateralism as

the U.S. is left to expend recourses protecting Europe and their new overreliance
means we can’t appropriately check a China or Russia rise. This collapses our
ability to respond to any existential risk and ensures full scale wars between
global superpowers.

This outweighs the affirmative teams impacts – multilateral organizations must

come first, singular nations can’t solve true existential risks without collaboration
– that’s our 1NC Tocci ‘21

Timeframe is the metric for impact weighing, their impacts won’t

happen soon enough and our impacts will completely change the
path of their impacts because they will instantly signal to the rest of
the world that Europe will once again rely on the US – that instantly
triggers our existential impact and ensures they can’t solve for any of
theirs

Even if you don’t buy extinction, we turn their impacts

[x] DA turns because
[x] DA turns ____ because
[INSERT ! cards ]
 UQ
The United States has withdrawn a majority of their support to
Europe now, which has their leaders increasing their own security
commitments. However, any recommitment of US resources or to
NATO will deck the support these politicians are currently receiving
and ensure that this defense investment evaporates. Any more
support to NATO triggers the brink – that’s our 1NC link evidence.
[LINE BY LINE]
 Link
The link is 3 fold
Guaranteed tradeoff – US protection ensures that Europe stops
showing up for their own defensive measures – they won’t want to
take the bill if we’re offering
Perception – The global order is teetering on the edge –
multilateralism will be replaced by hyper nationalism if countries
believe that the United States is the only glue holding multilateral
organizations together
Great Power challenges – We lose all possibility to have enough
resources to solve the challenges to great power – this independently
links and magnifies the perception link by bringing on the threat of
great power wars
[CARDS + Line by line]
 European Autonomy
On UQ

We are winning this DA on all three parts but we’ll start with the
impacts

Remember that Europe is in a key transition period of increasing the

amount of recourses it is allocating to their defense budgets because
of decreased reliance on the US – that’s our Zhigao ‘22 1NC
evidence
That means the passage of the affirmative kills our hope of an
independent Europe and decks the efficiency of multi-lateral
organizations. And these multilateral organizations are key to stop
any large impact, as countries can’t handle key issues on their own.
That’s our Waslekar ’21 1NC evidence.

Taiwan is receiving ample US aid now but the defense is hanging in

the balance as a complex scenario – sustained U.S. support is
critical. That’s 1NC Gerichten ‘22

Onto the Link

We are so far ahead on the link that you absolutely have to evaluate a large risk of
the DA. Remember we gave you 3 ways they link to the DA: Guaranteed Tradeoff,
Perception, and Great Power Challenges. If you don’t think that all 3 links have
been properly addressed, then strongly weigh the disad. The link alone turns the
Insert reason why the link turns the aff]. If we prove
aff – [
that Europe is not going to reduce defense spending now we win.
Finally, the impact
So you weigh this disad as follows
We win on magnitude because multilateral organization is the biggest
impact and not only will it be impossible to solve any of the threats
that face humans today such as climate change or terrorism–– but
also prioritize irreversibility that’s – every other impact has a chance
of the world returning but failure to uphold these thresholds ensures
irreversible thresholds are crossed that doom the human race - vote
to save the most lives and preserve the future
We win on probability because multilateral organizational collapse is
extremely probable – Ukraine already got invaded on the boarder of
NATO countries – great powers will challenge far more countries if
we fail to deter through multi-lateral organizations
Finally the timeframe – they may suggest a multi-lateral organizations
are resilient but remember that the tipping point has been proven
time and time again and multi-lateral orgnizations are increasing now.
That’s 1NC Waslekar ‘21 - we need to act fast before it’s too late to
stop global instability from multi-lateral collapse that ensures
extinction.
(IF NO !–D read) NO IMPACT DEFENSE, WEIGHT THE IMPACT AT 100%!!!!!!