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RC 2022 Winning Presentation Northern Illinois Univ
RC 2022 Winning Presentation Northern Illinois Univ
1
Land Mobile Up/Cross-
Radio Sell & Fund
Dominance Acquisitions
Enhance Margins
& Cash Flows
2
COMPANY OVERVIEW
3
COMPANY HISTORY &
PORTFOLIO
Founding of
Galvin
1928 Manufacturing
First MSI Corp
Safety 1930
Radios
First FM Portfolio
1943 Two-Way Radio $8.2 billion
Worldwide 2021
Name
+ Board 11.0 Years 500%
revenue
Change 1947 Chair Tenure Return
Motorola
1950 Foundation
First Words US Commercial Land Mobile Radio Towers
Products & Systems Software & Services
From The 1969 Integration
Moon
2011 Separation
MSI
Chairman 2011
and CEO
Airwave
2016 Acquisition
4
Company ESG Industry
Relative ESG
ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL,
& GOVERNANCE ANALYSIS
E
ESG Rating Summary
S
Internal ESG Priorities
6
Company ESG Industry
Land Mobile Up/Cross-
Radio Sell & Fund
Dominance Acquisitions
Enhance Margins
& Cash Flows
INVESTMENT THESIS
7
Investment Thesis ECONOMIC MOAT
Domestic Land Mobile Radio Market Land Mobile Radio Switching Costs
Land Mobile
Radio LHX,
30%
Dominance
MSI,
70%
Figure 26: LMR
Easy Difficult
Up/Cross- Comparison
Figure 26: LMR Comparison
1,000
Sell & Fund Survey
Acquisitions Frequency of Land Mobile Radio
Recipients
Global Land Mobile Radio Market Contract Renewals
LHX, Annually
Enhance 23%
Every 2-3 years
Margins & MSI,
Cash Flows 54%
Every 3-5 years
Others,
23% Every 5+ years
8
Economic Moat Adjacency Acquisitions Favorable Margins
ADJACENCY
ACQUISITIONS
Investment Thesis
Land Mobile Land Mobile Radio Video Security & Analytics Command Center Software
Radio
Dominance
Up/Cross-
Sell & Fund
Acquisitions Number of Acquisitions since 2018 Forecasted Five-Year Market CAGR
16 30%
TYL
12 20%
Enhance
8 MSI
Margins & 10%
MSI LHX MSI
Cash Flows 4 AXON
0 0%
Land Video Command Land Video Command
Source: Bloomberg
Mobile Security & Center Mobile Security & Center
Radio Analytics Software Radio Analytics Software
9
Economic Moat Adjacency Acquisitions Favorable Margins
Investment Thesis FAVORABLE MARGINS
Profit Margins by Technology Group Forecasted Software & Services Proportional Revenue
20% 17.6%
Land Mobile
Radio
Dominance 10%
6.1%
3.8%
Up/Cross- 0%
Land Mobile Radio Peer Group
Sell & Fund
Video Peer Group
Acquisitions Forecasted Gross Margin
Command Center Peer Group
Enhance
290 BPS OPERATING
Margins &
MARGIN EXPANSION
Cash Flows
SINCE 2015
10
Economic Moat Adjacency Acquisitions Favorable Margins
FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
11
Key Performance Indicators
REVENUE &
PROFITABILITY
30%
20%
Historic
13%
Segment
Revenue
Regress on
Historic
Operating Cash Flow Allocation Drivers
Project
Segment
Revenue
12
Revenue Capital & Shareholder Leverage
Key Performance Indicators
CAPITAL INVESTMENTS &
SHAREHOLDER PAYMENTS
30%
20% Share Repurchases and Issuances (in Millions of $) Dividends Per Share
13% $300
$200
$100
-$100
13
Revenue Capital & Shareholder Leverage
Key Performance Indicators
LEVERAGE
Credit Rating Comparables
30%
20%
14
Revenue Capital & Shareholder Leverage
VALUATION
Comparative WACC
14%
12% AXON
LHX
10%
TYL
8% MSI
6% Model WACC
12/1/2015 6/1/2017 12/1/2018 6/1/2020 12/1/2021
16
WACC Sensitivity Scenario MC DDM Relative Comparison
Valuation Summary DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
SENSITIVITY
Tornado Chart
MSI
24.1%
UPSIDE
VS
S&P 500
17.4%
UPSIDE
+ 14
Analysts
17
WACC Sensitivity Scenario MC DDM Relative Comparison
Valuation Summary SUPPORTING MODELS
DCF SCENARIOS
Scenario Analysis Projected FCFF
FCFF DCF Bull Base Bear
$5,000
$4,500
Revenue CAGR 6.6% 5.7% 4.3%
$4,000
$3,500
FCFF CAGR 9.6% 9.5% 8.1% $3,000
Millions
$2,500
Terminal Growth 2.75% 2.50% 2.25% $2,000
$1,500
WACC 9.4% 9.7% 10.7% $1,000
$500
Stock Price $321 $258 $190 $0
2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
2024
2022
2023
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Upside (Downside) 53.7% 24.1% -8.2%
Base Bull Bear
18
WACC Sensitivity Scenario MC DDM Relative Comparison
Valuation Summary SUPPORTING MODELS
MONTE CARLO
MC FCFF DCF Brownian Price Paths
40%
Initial EPS Growth 15.1% 14.6% 14.0%
20
WACC Sensitivity Scenario MC DDM Relative Comparison
Valuation Summary SUPPORTING MODELS
RELATIVE
Land Video Command Target
Revenue
Mobile Security & Center Price &
Weighted
Radio Analytics Software Upside
MSI Applied
Multiple
EV/ $258
15.1x 22.2x 31.9x 20.5x
EBITDA 24.1%
$256
P/E 22.4x 28.9x 62.7x 35.8x
22.9%
21
WACC Sensitivity Scenario MC DDM Relative Comparison
Valuation Summary SUPPORTING MODELS
COMPARISON
Common-Size Metrics Monthly Factor Analysis
Profitability 0.78
Comparative Valuations
Conservatism -0.22
Momentum 0.36
24.24%
Return
22
WACC Sensitivity Scenario MC DDM Relative Comparison
INVESTMENT RISKS
23
Risk Matrix
INFLATION & SUPPLY
CHAIN
WACC COGS DSO Revenue
14.4% 10.1%
Contract-Embedded CPI Price Escalator MSI Historical Backlog
5%
3% 2022
2019
24
Inflation & Supply Chain Acquisitions, Taxes, & Regulation
Risk Matrix
INTEGRATION, TAXES, &
REGULATION
Inorganic Revenues Tax Rate SG&A Expense LMR Revenue
25
Inflation & Supply Chain Acquisitions, Taxes, & Regulation
Land Mobile Up/Cross-
Radio Sell & Fund
Dominance Acquisitions
Enhance Margins
$258 BUY & Cash Flows
RECOMMENDATION
26
Macro • Executive Committee • Base Case Ratios & Key Performance Indicators
• GDP Growth • Board of Directors • Cost of Capital
• Inflation, Yield Curve, Recession • Board of Directors Expertise • ESG Factor
• Sovereign Debt Yields • Subcommittee
• Forecasted Dollar-Value Index • Additional Officers Financial Analysis
• Ownership • Alphabet Scores
Industry • Compensation • Forecasted D/TA
• Industry Drivers • ISS Environment Report • EPS
• Cybersecurity • ISS Social Report • Current Ratio
• Public Safety Market Growth • ISS Governance Report • Comparative Dividend Yield
• PSAP by State • MSI Foundation • Historic vs. Forecasted Income
• Awards • Historic vs. Forecasted Balance Sheet
Firm • Historic vs. Forecasted Cash Flows
• Industries Competitive Positioning • Textual Analysis
• Supply Chain • Customer Survey
• Operating Segment Revenue and Margins • Technology TAM Models
• Stock Price Events • Margins by Technology Group • DCF Assumptions
• Brexit • Comparative Acquisitions • Relative Valuation
• Covid Impact • SWOT • Base Case Waterfall
• MTAC • Porter’s 5 Forces • Base Case DDM
• Acquisition Timeline • Peer Office Locations • DDM Support
• Acquisition Multiples • LHX • Base Case Discounted Cash Flow
• Possible Acquisitions • AXON • Two-Way Sensitivity
• Insider Buys/Sells • TYL
• Short Interest & RSI • YTD Return Risks
• Earnings Estimates • Holding Period Returns • Investment Risk
• Pension Funding Ratio • Stock Return Comparison • Operational Risks
• Land Mobile Radio Communications Product Line • Analyst Recommendations • Market Risks
• Video Security & Access Control Product Line • Political Risks
• Command Center Software Product Line Pro Formas • Global Risk Report
• Cybersecurity Services • Pro Forma Assumptions • Russian Invasion of Ukraine
• Land Mobile Radio Comparison • Model Updates 2022 • Announcement Returns
• Ecosystem • Base Case Income Statement • Regulatory Burden
• Command Central Suite • Base Case Income Statement Common-Size • Intellectual Property Protection
• Base Case Balance Sheet • Supply Chain Mitigation
APPENDIX
ESG • Base Case Balance Sheet Common-Size • Value-At-Risk Analysis
• ESG 2021 Review • Base Case Shares Outstanding
• ESG Goals • Base Case Debt Schedule
• ESG Performance • Base Case Cashflow Statement
MAP 27
GDP Growth
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
GDP US UK CA Terminal
GROWTH 28
Inflation Probability of US Recession
9 120 1
0.9
7 100 0.8
5
0.7
80
3 0.6
Inverted Yield Curve 1 60 0.5
• August 2019 -1
40
0.4
0.3
• Q3 Sales +7% YOY 0.2
20
• Q4 Sales +5% YOY 0.1
Recession
• Feb/Mar 2020 US Treasury Yield Curve 5/5/22 Treasury Yield Spread & Stock Price
• Q1 Sales -0% YOY 4 1.8 300
• 12 Month Recovery 2
0.8 150
100
INFLATION
1.5 0.3
50
1
0.5 -0.2 0
YIELD CURVE 0
RECESSION
Recession Yield Spread MSI
29
10-Year Sovereign Debt Yields
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
SOVEREIGN
6/1/2016 6/1/2017 6/1/2018 6/1/2019 6/1/2020 6/1/2021 6/1/2022 6/1/2023 6/1/2024
US UK CA
DEBT YIELDS 30
Forecasted Dollar-Value Index
122
117
112
107
102
97
FORECASTED 92
DOLLAR-
VALUE INDEX 31
Land Mobile Radio Global Market State and Local Public Safety Spending
(in Billions of USD) (in Billions of USD)
50 750
45
700
40
35 650
30
600
25
550
20
15 500
10
450
5
0 400
INDUSTRY
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
DRIVERS 32
Cybersecurity Cost Cybersecurity Attack Response Confidence
$15
In trillions
$10
$5
$0
2015 2025 Low High
CYBER- $40
$0
PUBLIC
SAFETY
MARKET
High Mid Low
GROWTH 34
Public Safety Answering Points (PSAP) by State
PSAP BY
STATE 35
Customer Base
Government Commercial
Utilities
INDUSTRIES
US International
36
US Federal Government
(8% Revenue)
UK Home Office
Motorola Solutions
(8% Revenue)
TD Synnex Corp
(6% Revenue)
SUPPLY CHAIN
37
Products & Systems Integration Historic Software & Services Historic Operating
Operating Margins and Revenue Margins and Revenue
15%
Millions USD
4,800 2,000 20%
SEGMENT
5%
4,200 500 5%
REVENUE 4,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0% 0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0%
MARGINS 38
MSI Falls as
Results Show
Supply Chain
$300 Constraints
MSI Soars After Beat-
MSI Gets New $1B and-Raise Quarter
$250 Investment From
MSI Outperforms as Silver Lake
Investors Are Bullish MSI Shares Rise; EPS
on Avigilon Beats
$200 Acquisition
MSI Boosts FY
Adjusted EPS View,
$150
Beats Estimates
MSI Defended by
$100 Cowen as Stock Hits
4-Month Low MSI Downgrade at
MSI 2Q Adjusted EPS JPMorgan Shows
$50 View Misses “Nowhere” Is Safe
Estimates
$0
STOCK PRICE
EVENTS 39
BREXIT Conversative
party “get
Brexit done”
UK & EU strike
$300 BREXIT on
Referendum Official Brexit deal on exit
Draft January 31,
(majority votes discussions terms
agreement 2020
to leave) with EU start
$200
$100
$0
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
BREXIT
40
Freight Costs
80% 30%
Remote Work Planned Reduction
Option for in Headquarter
Employees Office Space
COVID
IMPACT 41
MTAC Members
Leverage external expertise Help guide responsible and Software CTO &
through outside-in insights ethical development Enterprise Strategy
Responsibilities
Government
Legal
Affairs
Cyber-
Sales
security
Conduct risk assessments
MTAC
Communications Compliance
42
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
ACQUISITION
TIMELINE 43
Target Price (m) EV/EBITDA
$1,041 14.96
$445 15.32
$36 12.47
ACQUISITION
MULTIPLES 44
European presence could bolster AI-embedded crime prevention
MSI’s expansion into Western Europe solutions
Open platform enhances value and Public Safety Analytics helps solve
fosters application development cases more quickly
POSSIBLE
ACQUISITIONS 45
Sale Purchase
$2,367,676 $5,065,033
$290
$270
$250
$230
$210
$190
$170
$150
INSIDER
BUYS/SELLS 46
5 $300
4 $250
Stock Price
3
$150
2
$100
1 $50
0 $0
80
70
60
50
RSI
40
SHORT 30
20
INTEREST
& RSI 47
Q1 22 Earnings Estimates
EARNINGS
ESTIMATES 48
Pension Funding Ratio
100%
90%
80%
70%
PENSION 60%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
FUNDING LHX MSI Fully Funded Corporate DB Average At-Risk
RATIO 49
High End APX Line
APX NEXT XE All-Band P25 Smart Radio APX 1500 SINGLE-BAND P25 MOBILE APX 900 SINGLE-BAND P25 PORTABLE
RADIO-ORIGINAL RADIO
APX NEXT XE merges a touchscreen interface Designed to provide reliable communications at Designed for public works. Efficiently focused
with AI for reliable use in extreme environments. an affordable price. Rugged simplistic design including Bluetooth connection, device
Stay focused on any situation that is presented. allows for prime use for first responders. management, and software support.
Standard Line
MOTOTRBO R7 Digital Two-Way Radio XPR 5000E Mobile Two-Way Radio
Designed for skilled professionals, high- Superior audio capabilities for mobile based
performance integrated voice and date features responding unit. Loud and clear sound allows use
for efficient operations. Wi-Fi, tracking, support. in harsh environments. Advanced connectivity.
Commercial Business
MAG ONE BPR40 Portable Two-Way Radio Curve Two-Way Radio for Business
Reliable and intuitive communication available Seamless integration with other products. Allows
LAND MOBILE RADIO through eight channels and two programmable for vocal log creation, programmable button, LED
COMMUNICATIONS buttons. Low power, channel delete, and repeater
talkaround make this versatile for any use.
signal lights, and supported superior range allows
for prime use in business setting.
PRODUCT LINE
50
Fixed Video Security Systems
Solutions help find and share vital information at a
superior speed than competitors. Allowing swift and
decisive responses that keep operations, people, and
assets safe.
License Plate Recognition Camera Systems
Proven to work, day in and day out. Help detect
plates, alert to sightings, analyze location data
Avigilon Access Control Solutions and automate processes.
Real-time access to information regarding entry
points, allowing for selective admissions. Seamless
pairing with other video security solutions for
unprecedented awareness.
ACCESS
Rugged in-car video system with frictionless body-worn by body-worn products. Additionally, they provide
integration allows for wireless uploads and license trust and safety for community development and
plate detection. Ensuring safety and accountability for officers alike.
CONTROL officers and the communities they serve.
PRODUCT LINE 51
CommandCentral Community
Single place for building transparency and
collaboration between public and law enforcement
agencies
Call handling offers integration and Enables dispatchers to process critical Single view ties operations and
data sharing for multimedia content. information faster and gain insights improves situational awareness with
through reporting. location, real-time video and alerts.
COMMAND
CENTER
SOFTWARE All in one display pulls case data for
easy access and secure distribution
Solution fully integrated with Records,
offering storing, managing, redacting,
Focused on improving inmate and
officer safety, this simplified jail
PRODUCT
with judicial contacts. and transcribing of digital evidence. management system uses automation,
alerting, and increased awareness of
jail activity.
LINE 52
Advisory Services Managed Security Serrvices
Managed &
Support Services
ECOSYSTEM 55
Incident Awareness Incident Management Post-Incident Resolution
Community Emergency Voice and Real-Time Field Records & Analysis and Jail & Inmate
Engagement Call Computer- Intelligence Response and Evidence Investigation Management
Management Aided Dispatch Operations Reporting Management
COMMAND
CENTRAL
SUITE 56
Events Business Council Volunteerism
Diversity Events throughout the months Radio Support for ROTC Training
300
30
12/31/2011 12/31/2014 12/31/2017 12/31/2020 200
ESG Disclosure Score
Environmental Disclosure Score 100
Social Disclosure Score 12/31/2011 12/31/2014 12/31/2017 12/31/2020
Governance Disclosure Score
170
18%
130
14%
90
ESG 50 10%
59
Strengths
Long Tenure
Complementary Experiences
& Expertise
Weaknesses
Limited Diversity
EXECUTIVE
COMMITTEE 60
Dr Ayanna Howard
Dean of Engineering
Philosophy (D)
MBA
Electrical Engineering (M)
Engineering (B)
AI & Robotics
BOARD OF
DIRECTORS 61
Dr Ayanna Howard
BOARD OF
DIRECTORS
EXPERTISE 62
Chairman Member
SUBCOMMITTEE 63
CHIEF DIVERSITY DATA PROTECTION
OFFICER OFFICER
OFFICERS 64
Top Institutional Owners Shareholder Ownership
OWNERSHIP
65
CEO Compensation Executive Compensation
% of Stock Awards
40%
Stock Price
$200
30%
$150
20%
$100
$50 10%
$0 0%
COMPENSATION
Stock Awards as % of total Comp Stock Price
66
Management of Environmental
1 Risks and Opportunities 2 Carbon and Climate
2 Technology &
Opportunity
GHG
Emissions
ENVIRONMENT Packaging
Material
Hazardous & Non-
hazardous Waste
REPORT 67
2 Human Rights 1 Labor, Health, and Safety
1 Supply Chain
Standards
Ethical
Sourcing
Supply Chain
Standards
Training &
Development
Compensation
& Benefits
Product Safety & Supply Chain Business Ethics & Lobbying & Consultation &
Toxicity Standards Anti-corruption Political Advocacy Engagement
ISS SOCIAL Product Quality Ethical Marketing Sustainability Motivation & Policies, Systems,
REPORT
& Safety & Communication Mgmt & Oversight Accountability & Disclosures
68
10
6
8 2
2
ISS
GOVERNANCE
REPORT 69
Values Focus Areas
Annual Grants
Innovative Partners
Disaster Relief
Employee Programs
Driven Inclusive
Volunteerism
65K $800,000
Volunteer hours From Donations
MSI for Donors
FOUNDATION 70
AWARDS
71
CUSTOMER
SURVEY 72
MSI,
Others, 8%
AXON,
23%
7%
MSI,
9%
TECHNOLOGY
TAM 73
Comparative Historic Profit Margins by Technology Group
MARGINS BY
TECHNOLOGY
GROUP 74
COMPARATIVE
ACQUISITIONS
75
SWOT
76
PORTER’S 5
FORCES 77
PEER OFFICE
LOCATIONS 78
L3 HARRIS (LHX)
Chris Kubasik
60 years
Financials
CEO since June 2021 Market Cap $47.0 B
LHX executive since 2015
Vice Chair P/E Ratio (LTM) 24.70
36.80% TRA (14.90% peers) Dividend Yield (LTM) 1.84%
AXON
MSCI Rating Leader
80
TYLER TECHNOLOGIES (TYL)
Lynn Moore
52 years
Financials
CEO since May 2018 Market Cap $15.09 B
Former General Counsel
Board Member P/E Ratio (LTM) 83.25
17.25% TRA (4.91% peers)
Dividend Yield (LTM) N/A
TYL
MSCI Rating Average
81
YTD Return
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
YTD RETURN 82
Holding Period Return
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
-50%
HOLDING
PERIOD LHX AXON TYL MSI
RETURNS 83
10 Year Price Comparison
2400%
1900%
1400%
900%
400%
-100%
ANALYST
RECOMMENDATIONS
85
PRO FORMA
ASSUMPTIONS
86
Acquisitions Q4 Earnings
Ecosystem
Market Factors
Supply Chain
MODEL
UPDATES Cybersecurity
2022 87
BASE CASE
INCOME
STATEMENT 88
BASE CASE
INCOME
STATEMENT
COMMON -
SIZE 89
BASE CASE
BALANCE
SHEET 90
BASE CASE
BALANCE
SHEET
COMMON-
SIZE 91
BASE CASE
SHARES
OUTSTANDING 92
Debt Schedule (in Millions of $)
BASE CASE
DEBT
SCHEDULE 93
BASE CASE
CASHFLOW
STATEMENT 94
BASE CASE
RATIOS & KEY
PERFORMANCE
INDICATORS 95
Component Methodology
COST OF
CAPITAL 96
ESG FACTOR 97
Altman Z-Score
Piotroski F-Score
Beneish M-Score
ALPHABET
SCORES 98
Forecasted D/TA Ratio Among Peers
12.5%
D/TA
FORECASTED
D/TA 99
Earnings Per Share
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
EPS
100
Current Ratio
3.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
CURRENT 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031
RATIO 101
MSI
1.53%
LHX
1.84%
COMPARATIVE
DIVIDEND
YIELD 102
Income Statement Metrics
FORECASTED
INCOME 103
Balance Sheet Metrics
HISTORIC VS.
FORECASTED
BALANCE
SHEET 104
Statement of Cash Flow Metrics
HISTORIC VS.
FORECASTED
CASH FLOWS 105
Sentiment Dictionaries Sources
Word Count
6%
330 positive
Polarity
292 negative
TEXTUAL
ANALYSIS 106
Funding Environment
Acquisitions/Repurchases
Inflation Risk
Political Disruptions
DCF
ASSUMPTIONS 107
RELATIVE
VALUATION 108
Base Case Waterfall
$60
$50
$40
Billions
$30
$20
$10
BASE CASE $0
Enterprise Value Debt Cash Equity Value
WATERFALL
109
BASE CASE
DDM 110
DDM DCF Bull Base Bear
DDM
SUPPORT 111
BASE CASE
DISCOUNTED
CASH FLOW 112
TWO-WAY
SENSITIVITY
PRICE &
UPSIDE 113
INVESTMENT
RISKS 114
OR1: Integration Risk. MSI may experience headwinds
integrating acquisitions. Valuation Impact: Decreasing
acquisition revenues by 50% lowers our valuation by 5.18%.
Mitigation: MSI monitors acquisition success; it has
completed three divestments since 2018.
OR2: High Dividends. MSI may constrain cash by excessively
increasing dividends. Valuation Impact: 20% dividend
increase, offset from decline in acquisitions lowered the
target price by <1%. Mitigation: Our model assumes a 13%
DPS CAGR, rendering the potential impact minimal.
OR3: Aggressive Research and Development. R&D could
overly tax profits. Valuation Impact: 10% R&D spend increase
lowers our valuation by 2.25%. Mitigation: MSI adequately
monitors their return on investments for R&D, focusing on
sustainable advances in target technologies.
OR4: Labor Environment. The global workforce shortage is
negatively affecting manufacturing-heavy firms and producing
talent acquisition issues. Valuation Impact: 10% increase in
SG&A expense results in a 2.28% valuation decrease.
Mitigation: MSI invests heavily in retention and work-life
RISKS 115
MR1: Threat of New Entrants. The Video Security and
Command Center industries are more competitive than LMR.
Valuation Impact: Decreasing non-LMR sales by 10% leads to
a 2.43% target decrease. Mitigation: Earmarked OCF towards
acquisitions in competitors with attractive technologies.
MR2: Inflation. Current inflation decreases MSI’s bottom line.
Valuation Impact: Increase in WACC by 45 bps and increasing
COGS by 6% lowers are target by 14.42%. Mitigation: Inflation
is expected to fall, additionally this acts as a systematic risk.
MR3: Supply Chain and Backlog. Global supply chain
disruptions have increased backlogs. Valuation Impact: 10%
increase in DSO and decreasing LMR revenues by 10%
decreases our valuation by 10.10%. Mitigation: Diverse
supplier base, revenue mix shift.
MR4: Technological Advancement towards LTE. LTE
advancements could suppress LMR growth. Valuation Impact:
5% decrease in LMR revenues result in a 5.01% valuation
decrease. Mitigation: LXN 6000 Mobile LTE network, and
revenue shift towards service market.
MR5: Volatility. 2020-2021 experienced highest VIX levels in a
MARKET
decade. Valuation Impact: Our Value-at-Risk analysis find that
MSI shareholders experience the least downside risk
RISKS
compared to peers. Mitigation: MSI investors experienced
more hedging towards risk than peer investors. 116
PR1: UK CMA Investigation. UK has threatened to replace
MSI’s Airwave network. Valuation Impact: A 10% decrease in
UK LMR revenue decreases our valuation by <1%. Mitigation:
European diversification and Airwave contract renewal.
PR2: Tax Environment. Increasing tax rates will shrink net
income. Valuation Impact: Raising taxes to 26.5% decreases
our valuation by 8.24%. Mitigation: Leveraging foreign tax
credits, systematic risk.
PR3: Government Funding. Less government spending
decreases sales. Valuation Impact: A 5% decrease in
government related sales leads to a 4.97% valuation
decrease. Mitigation: Sticky contracts, increased emphasis on
non-governmental agencies, international presence.
PR4: Regulation. Increased regulation results in increased
compliance costs and decreases competitiveness. Valuation
Impact: A 10% increase in SG&A expense while decreasing
LMR revenue by 10% causes a valuation decrease of 12.53%.
Mitigation: Political Action Committee raised $1,055,614,
contributing $260,500 to federal political candidates 2019-
2020 (64% Republican, 36% Democrat).
POLITICAL
RISKS 117
Clear and Present Dangers Global Risk Plot
4.5
Infection diseases 58.0%
4.0
Livelihood crises 55.1%
Impact
3.5
Extreme weather events 52.7%
3.0
REPORT 118
European Locations
West East
0.88%
0.72%
0.45%
ANNOUNCEMENT
RETURNS 120
REGULATORY
BURDEN 121
INTELLECTUAL
PROPERTY
PROTECTION 122
Increase in Inventory Product Redesign
Evaluating and
55%
Exploring Substitutes
SUPPLY CHAIN
MITIGATION 123
Historic 10-Day Return Distribution
VALUE-AT-
RISK
ANALYSIS 124