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Visited fivethirtyeight.com and discussed briefly.

Began M&M activity.

n=22 m&ms in the bag


% of blue ones in the bag: 18%, 33%, 22%, 25%, 9.1%
Sample variability: each bag produces different proportion of m&ms

When graphing: bag number is x axis and percentage of blue m&ms is y axis.

Red line: Expected value (center)


Green lines: standard error (spread)
tries to estimate how big on average discrepancies from the expected value are

1. Determine sample size


2. Determine sample percentage (“p hat”, % sample) 33%
3. Standard deviation of the sample 33 × 66 (from shortcut method) (proportion of 1s
[blue m&ms] times proportion of 0s [non-blue m&ms])
4. Make box model |1 0 0 1…..| billions of tickets, impossible to know true average
and standard deviation of the box

Sample:
● N=22
● %sample: 33%
● SDsample: (1-0) 33 × 67

Sample Variability:
● Center of variability (EV%)
● Spread of variability (SE%= SDbox/ 𝑛) (replace SDbox with known: SDsample. Get
10.02)

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