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Journal of Infection 81 (2020) 902–910

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Journal of Infection
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jinf

Complications and mortality of typhoid fever: A global systematic


review and meta-analysis
Christian S. Marchello a, Megan Birkhold b, John A. Crump a,∗
a
Centre for International Health, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9016, New Zealand
b
Department of Surgery, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD 21201, USA

a r t i c l e i n f o s u m m a r y

Article history: Objectives: Updated estimates of the prevalence of complications and case fatality ratio (CFR) among
Accepted 29 October 2020 typhoid fever patients are needed to understand disease burden.
Available online 2 November 2020
Methods: Articles published in PubMed and Web of Science from 1 January 1980 through 29 January
Keywords: 2020 were systematically reviewed for hospital or community-based non-surgical studies that used cul-
Typhoid fever tures of normally sterile sites, and hospital surgical studies of typhoid intestinal perforation (TIP) with
Case fatality ratio intra- or post-operative findings suggestive of typhoid. Prevalence of 21 pre-selected recognized compli-
Meta-analysis cations of typhoid fever, crude and median (interquartile range) CFR, and pooled CFR estimates using a
Mortality random effects meta-analysis were calculated.
Intestinal perforation Results: Of 113 study sites, 106 (93.8%) were located in Asia and Africa, and 84 (74.3%) were non-surgical.
Among non-surgical studies, 70 (83.3%) were hospital-based. Of 10,355 confirmed typhoid patients, 2,719
(26.3%) had complications. The pooled CFR estimate among non-surgical patients was 0.9% for the Asia
region and 5.4% for the Africa region. Delay in care was significantly correlated with increased CFR in
Asia (r = 0.84; p<0.01). Among surgical studies, the median CFR of TIP was 15.5% (6.7–24.1%) per study.
Conclusions: Our findings identify considerable typhoid-associated illness and death that could be averted
with prevention measures, including typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction.
© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The British Infection Association.
This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Introduction Timely and accurate diagnosis and treatment of typhoid fever


in the community is needed to avert complications requiring hos-
Typhoid fever is caused by the organism Salmonella enterica pitalization, and death.2 Typhoid complications include typhoid
subspecies enterica serovar Typhi (Salmonella Typhi); a systematic intestinal perforation (TIP), gastrointestinal hemorrhage, hepatitis,
infection transmitted predominantly through water or food con- cholecystitis, myocarditis, shock, encephalopathy, pneumonia, and
taminated by human feces.1–3 Typhoid fever presents clinically anemia.1 , 2 TIP and gastrointestinal hemorrhage are serious com-
across a spectrum of severity with a range of symptoms and signs plications that are often fatal, even if managed surgically.8 , 9
including fever, abdominal pain, nausea, and vomiting, that make Prevention of typhoid fever by improved sanitation and in-
differentiating it from other febrile and gastrointestinal illnesses creased access to clean, safe water and food remains critical,10–12
challenging.2 The ‘gold standard’ diagnostic method for typhoid but requires substantial investment over long time scales. Typhoid
fever is the culture of blood, bone marrow, or another normally conjugate vaccine (TCV) has been pre-qualified and recommended
sterile site. However, clinical microbiology services are not widely by the World Health Organization for routine use13 and repre-
available in endemic areas and culture-based diagnosis has incom- sents a tool to prevent typhoid illness and deaths in a short time
plete sensitivity.4 Additionally, delays in diagnosis and treatment horizon, complementing progress in sanitation, water, and food
occur as a result of barriers to care, such as difficulty accessing safety improvements.14 In typhoid-endemic countries, TCV pre-
tertiary facilities because of delayed referral, distance, and the cost qualification allows for priority access and funding, removing im-
of healthcare.5–7 portant hurdles for vaccine introduction into routine immunization
schedules.15
While previous systematic reviews have examined the case fa-
tality ratio (CFR) of typhoid fever, they did not capture the substan-

Corresponding author tial number of observational studies on typhoid fever published in
E-mail address: john.crump@otago.ac.nz (J.A. Crump).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinf.2020.10.030
0163-4453/© 2020 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The British Infection Association. This is an open access article under the CC BY license
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
C.S. Marchello, M. Birkhold and J.A. Crump Journal of Infection 81 (2020) 902–910

recent years. Furthermore, some past reviews were restricted by Table 1


Inclusion and exclusion criteria for search strategy of complications and mortality
location, population, or age.10 , 16–19 In order to support country-
of typhoid fever systematic review.
level decisions on typhoid control, including TCV introduction, and
to provide contemporary estimates of morbidity and mortality, we Inclusion Exclusion
performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence
of complications and case fatality ratio (CFR) among patients with
• Non-surgical studies using culture • Case reports, case series, policy
typhoid fever. of normally sterile site specimens reports, commentaries, editorials,
• Surgical studies of intestinal and conference abstracts
Methods perforation using either: • Aggregate or summary data
◦ Gross intraoperative findings estimating case fatality ratio
with the keywords ‘terminal • Government passive surveillance
Search strategy
ileum’, ‘antimesenteric reports
perforation’, or ‘confirmed at • Used clinical indication (i.e.,
We systematically reviewed PubMed and Web of Science for laparotomy’ symptoms and signs), culture of a
published articles on the complications and mortality of typhoid ◦ Postoperative findings using non-sterile site (e.g., stool or
histopathology stains or urine), or serology to classify a
fever. Each database was searched for key words of Salmonella
immunohistochemistry to case of typhoid fever
Typhi, mortality, case fatality, died, death, complications, perfora- differentiate alternative causes • Clear denominator was not
tion, and hemorrhage (Supplementary Appendix A). Since a pre- for perforation available to calculate proportions
vious review reported on the mortality of typhoid fever prior to • Article published after 1980 but

1980,20 our search was limited to articles published from 1 Jan- data collected at any point
• Hospital- or community-based
uary 1980 through 29 January 2020. We placed no restrictions on
study designs of active household
language, country, or demographics. We followed the Preferred Re- or population-based surveillance,
porting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA; prospective observational,
Supplementary Appendix B)21 and the protocol was registered with cross-sectional, case-control,
retrospective medical record, or
PROPSERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews
control arms of clinical trials
on 10 July 2020 (CRD42020166998). Ours was a study of published
data and as such, institutional review board approval was not re-
quired. region and sub-region as classified by the United Nations (UN),24
type of normally sterile site cultured or study-specific TIP defini-
Study selection tion, whether participants were recruited from the community or
a hospital, and if the study was non-surgical or surgical.
We selected ‘non-surgical studies’ reporting the proportion of Data were abstracted for the mean and median fever, illness,
participants with Salmonella Typhi infection who had typhoid- or symptom duration prior to presentation; inclusion age and
associated complications or who died. In such studies, Salmonella age range of participants; total number of confirmed or proba-
Typhi infection was required to be ascertained by culture of a ble typhoid cases; number and type of complications; and num-
normally sterile site (e.g., blood). We also selected ‘surgical stud- ber of deaths attributed to typhoid fever. When reported, we ab-
ies’ of only participants undergoing surgery for intestinal perfo- stracted CFR data for MDR cases, defined by authors as infection
ration. Surgical studies were included if gross intraoperative find- with Salmonella Typhi resistant to chloramphenicol, ampicillin, and
ings contained the keywords ‘terminal ileum,’ ‘antimesenteric per- trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and non-MDR cases, defined by
foration,’ or ‘confirmed at laparotomy’ to assign perforations as authors as susceptible to at least one of the first-line antimicro-
TIP.8 , 9 We also accepted postoperative criteria including the use of bials. We also noted the proportion of male and female partici-
histopathology stains or immunohistochemistry to differentiate al- pants with TIP.
ternative causes for perforation (e.g., tuberculosis) and to attribute Data on duration of fever, duration of illness, and duration of
the cause of perforation to Salmonella Typhi. Consequently, we symptoms prior to treatment were used as a proxy for delays in
considered participants from non-surgical studies as having ‘con- accessing care and subsequently combined as one metric of ‘de-
firmed,’ and those from surgical studies as having ‘probable,’ ty- lay in care.’ We categorized the ages of participants into three
phoid fever. Inclusion and exclusion criteria are summarized in groups based on inclusion age and age range: ‘children’ were ≤15
Table 1. years old, ‘adults’ >15 years, and ‘mixed ages’ were studies of both
Titles and abstracts were downloaded from each database, im- children and adult participants. Complications were classified two
ported into Endnote X8 (Clarivate Analytics, Boston, MA, USA), and ways. First, we used a pre-selected list of 21 complications defined
combined into one reference list. Duplicates were removed by End- by Parry and colleagues.1 If a study mentioned any complication
note, and the de-duplicated list of articles was uploaded to the from the list, regardless of whether the study defined it as a ty-
online systematic review tool Rayyan (Qatar Computing Research phoid complication, we abstracted the data. Second, we noted sep-
Institute, Doha, Qatar) for screening.22 Each subsequent process, arately when a study specifically used the term ‘complication’ as-
including title and abstract review, full text review, and data ab- sociated with typhoid fever. We did not abstract complications fol-
straction, was performed in parallel by two authors (CSM and MB). lowing surgery nor those attributed to the surgical procedure. If
A third author (JAC) was consulted when CSM and MB were un- a study described an initial diagnosis, including pneumonia, hep-
able to resolve discrepancies through discussion. The full text of 33 atitis, and other syndromes that overlapped with complications of
studies included in a systematic review on typhoid incidence were typhoid fever from our pre-selected list, it was not recorded as a
additionally screened.23 Data were then abstracted into a shared complication due to lack of attribution to typhoid by the authors
Google Sheets spreadsheet (Google LLC, Mountain View, CA, USA). of the study. The final dataset was reviewed by a third author (JAC)
for completeness and accuracy.
Data abstraction
Data analysis
Abstracted study characteristics included the first author, pub-
lication year, article identifier (e.g., PubMed ID), year data collec- For each non-surgical study, we divided the number of each
tion started and ended, the city, district, or locality of the study, pre-selected complication by the number of confirmed typhoid

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C.S. Marchello, M. Birkhold and J.A. Crump Journal of Infection 81 (2020) 902–910

Fig. 1. Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses flow diagram of search strategy and selection of articles for mortality and complications of
typhoid fever, 1965–2018.

cases to calculate the prevalence of the specific complication. We priate diagnostic method due to inadequate description of how
divided the number of deaths attributed to typhoid fever by the a confirmed or probable typhoid case was defined was the most
total number of confirmed typhoid cases to calculate a CFR. We common reason for exclusion. We were unable to translate the lan-
calculated the median and interquartile (IQR) range CFR for stud- guage of 11 articles and we were unable to locate the full text of 10
ies across each UN region and a pooled CFR estimate using a ran- articles. A total of 109 articles were included for analysis.20 , 25–132
dom effects model meta-analysis with MetaXL (Epigear Interna-
tional version 5.3). For pooled CFR estimates, we also stratified by
UN sub-region and by age group. Among surgical studies of TIP, Study characteristics
we calculated the CFR of TIP among probable typhoid cases and
the prevalence of TIP among male and female participants. Among the 109 articles, one (0.9%) collected data in five coun-
Proportions were compared by X2 test, means by t-test, and tries,90 resulting in 113 study sites (Supplementary Appendix C).
the relationship between delay in care and CFR by Pearson’s cor- Among 113 study sites, data were collected from 1965 through
relation coefficient (r), in R version 4.0.2 (R Foundation for Sta- 2018 and from every UN region; 62 (54.9%) in Asia, 44 (38.9%) in
tistical Computing, Vienna, Austria) and considered significant if Africa, four (3.5%) in the Americas, two (1.8%) in Oceania, and one
p <0.05. We assessed bias throughout the analyses by separating (0.9%) in Europe. Eighty-four (74.3%) sites recruited non-surgical
non-surgical and surgical analyses, by stratifying by region, sub- typhoid fever participants and 29 (25.7%) were surgical studies of
region, age, and study recruitment setting, and by heterogeneity TIP. Among 84 non-surgical studies, 70 (83.3%) were hospital-based
using I2 . and 14 (16.7%) were community-based. There were 14,007 con-
firmed cases of typhoid fever with a median (IQR) of 64 (25–190)
cases per study; 12,889 (92.0%) were from hospital-based and 1,118
Results (8.0%) from community-based studies. Among 29 surgical study
sites, there were 2,926 probable cases of typhoid with a median
Our search strategy returned 6,121 articles (Fig. 1). Of 513 full of 58 (46–104) cases per study. Of the 16,933 total confirmed or
text articles reviewed, 404 were excluded. An unclear or inappro- probable cases, 11,973 (70.7%) were from Asia, 3,642 (21.5%) from

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C.S. Marchello, M. Birkhold and J.A. Crump Journal of Infection 81 (2020) 902–910

Table 2
Complications of typhoid fever, by United Nations region, 1965–2018.

Complicationsa Africa Americas Asia Oceania Totalb

n/ N (%) n/ N (%) n/ N (%) n/ N (%) n/ N (%)

Abdominal
Intestinal perforation 37 / 486 (7.6) 4/ 217 (1.8) 34 / 4,622 (0.7) 5/ 739 (0.7) 80 / 6,064 (1.3)
Gastrointestinal 11 / 320 (3.4) 0/ 0 — 87 / 2,809 (3.1) 21 / 739 (2.8) 119 / 3,868 (3.1)
hemorrhage
Hepatitis 10 / 157 (6.4) 1/ 9 (11.1) 104 / 2,389 (4.4) 17 / 739 (2.3) 132 / 3,294 (4.0)
Cholecystitis 1/ 55 (1.8) 0/ 0 — 10 / 913 (1.1) 0/ 365 (0.0) 11 / 1,333 (0.8)
Cardiovascular
Asymptomatic ND ND ND ND ND
electrocardiographic
changes
Myocarditis 2/ 191 (1.0) 0/ 0 — 30 / 1,979 (1.5) 1/ 365 (0.3) 33 / 2,535 (1.3)
Shock 0/ 14 (0.0) 0/ 0 — 59 / 3,580 (1.6) 17 / 365 (4.7) 76 / 3,959 (1.9)
Neuropsychiatric
Encephalopathy 0/ 0 — 0/ 0 — 98 / 2,460 (4.0) 4/ 365 (1.1) 102 / 2,825 (3.6)
Delirium 34 / 277 (12.3) 0/ 0 — 650 / 2,027 (32.1) 21 / 344 (5.8) 705 / 2,648 (26.6)
Psychotic states 2/ 50 (4.0) 2/ 217 (0.9) 28 / 1,438 (1.9) 0/ 0 — 32 / 1,705 (1.9)
Meningitis 6/ 347 (1.7) 1/ 9 (11.1) 13 / 1,625 (0.8) 0/ 0 — 20 / 1,981 (1.0)
Impairment of ND ND ND ND ND
coordination
Respiratory
Bronchitis 0/ 0 — 0/ 0 — 32 / 407 (7.9) 0/ 0 — 32 / 407 (7.9)
Pneumonia 4/ 191 (2.1) 7/ 226 (3.1) 43 / 1,416 (3.0) 18 / 374 (4.8) 72 / 2,207 (3.3)
Hematologic
Anemia 132 / 311 (42.4) 52 / 226 (23.0) 683 / 3,516 (19.4) 150 / 703 (21.3) 1,017 / 4,756 (21.4)
Disseminated 0/ 0 — 0/ 0 — 98 / 660 (14.8) 1/ 374 (0.3) 99 / 1,034 (9.6)
intravascular
coagulation
Other
Focal abscess 1/ 47 (2.1) 0/ 0 — 0/ 0 — 0/ 0 — 1/ 47 (2.1)
Pharyngitis ND ND ND ND ND
Miscarriage 0/ 0 — 0/ 0 — 1/ 6 (16.7) 0/ 0 — 1/ 6 (16.7)
Relapse 6/ 171 (3.5) 2/ 129 (1.6) 71 / 2,166 (3.2) 0/ 0 — 79 / 2,466 (3.2)
Chronic carriage ND ND ND ND ND
Seizure or 14 / 125 (11.2) 0/ 0 — 94 / 4,224 (2.2) 0/ 0 — 108 / 4,349 (2.5)
convulsionsc
Total complications 260 / 689 (37.7) 69 / 226 (30.5) 2,135 / 8,681 (24.6) 255 / 739 (34.5) 2,719 / 10,335 (26.3)
Total Complications 116 / 348 (33.3) 24 / 327 (7.3) 401 / 3,028 (13.2) 128 / 739 (17.3) 669 / 4,442 (15.1)
as described by study
∗a
Complications from Parry et al. Table 11 ND = No data. Data could not be abstracted as these complications were not described in any of the included articles.
∗∗b
Europe not shown due to the single study from Europe including participants diagnosed with stool and urine cultures, therefore it was not possible to distinguish
complications among those diagnosed by culture of a normally sterile site. 101 .
^cComplication not listed by Parry et al

Africa, 739 (4.4%) from Oceania, 554 (3.3%) from the Americas, and Outcomes of typhoid intestinal perforation
25 (0.1%) from Europe. Sixty-seven (59.3%) of 113 study sites re-
cruited participants of a mixed age, 35 (31.0%) recruited only chil- We identified 29 articles reporting surgical studies of TIP and
dren, and 11 (9.7%) only adults. an additional seven non-surgical studies provided data on CFR of
TIP. Among the 36 combined surgical and non-surgical studies, 12
(33.3%) were in Asia, 23 (63.9%) in Africa, and one (2.8%) in the
Typhoid fever complications Americas. There were a total of 2,971 TIP cases, of which 2,921
(98.3%) were from surgical studies and 50 (1.7%) were from non-
Of the 84 non-surgical study sites, 56 (66.7%) reported at least surgical studies. Of 2,971 TIP cases, 999 (33.6%) were in Asia, 1,967
one complication occurring from the list of pre-selected complica- (66.2%) in Africa, and 5 (0.2%) in the Americas. Of 2,971 TIP cases,
tions. Among 10,335 cases of confirmed typhoid fever, there were 433 (14.6%) died. The median CFR of TIP across the 36 studies was
2,719 (26.3%) complication events (Table 2). Delirium and anemia 15.5% (6.7–24.1%).
were the most prevalent complications, occurring in 705 (26.6%) Of 999 TIP cases in Asia, 46 (4.6%) died. The median CFR of TIP
of 2,648 and 1,017 (21.4%) of 4,756 confirmed cases, respectively. across 12 studies in Asia was 1.0% (0.0–8.4%). Of 1,967 TIP cases in
Eighty (1.3%) of 6,064 participants had TIP; 34 (0.7%) of 4,622 Africa, 387 (19.7%) died. The median CFR of TIP across 23 stud-
participants in Asia and 37 (7.6%) of 486 participants in Africa. ies in Africa was 20.0% (13.7–28.0%). Sex was available for 996
Twenty-seven (32.1%) of 84 sites described unspecified complica- (99.7%) of 999 TIP cases in Asia; 704 (70.7%) were male compared
tions for 669 (15.1%) of 4,442 confirmed cases. Asymptomatic elec- to 292 (29.3%) female (X2 =170.4; p<0.01). Sex was available for
trocardiographic changes, impairment of coordination, pharyngitis, 1,826 (92.8%) of 1,967 TIP cases in Africa; 1,210 (66.3%) were male
and chronic carriage were not reported from any of the included compared to 616 (33.7%) female (X2 =193.2; p<0.01).
non-surgical study sites. Data on miscarriage were available in one
study of pregnant women,42 occurring in one (16.7%) of six with Typhoid fever mortality
confirmed typhoid fever. Although not in the Parry et al. list of ty-
phoid complications, seizures or convulsions were reported among Seventy-nine (94.0%) of 84 non-surgical study sites reported on
108 (2.5%) of 4,349 typhoid patients. mortality. Among 13,303 confirmed typhoid cases from studies re-

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C.S. Marchello, M. Birkhold and J.A. Crump Journal of Infection 81 (2020) 902–910

Table 3
Confirmed and probable cases of typhoid fever and case fatality ratio of confirmed typhoid fever, by United Nations region, 1965–2018.

Africa Americas Asia Europe Oceania All regions

Confirmed and probable typhoid fever


Study locations 44 4 62 1 2 113
Confirmed and probable cases 3,642 554 11,973 30 739 16,938
a
Median (IQR) cases per study 50 (26–102.5) 113.5 (9.8–242.3) 79 (40–189) 369.5 (367.3–371.8) 63 (30–163)

Mortality among confirmed cases


Study locations 22 3 51 1 2 84
Confirmed cases 1,700 544 10,295 25 739 13,303
Number of deaths 77 23 90 0 60 250
CFR confirmed typhoid fever 4.5 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.1 1.9
Median CFR (IQR) 4.2 (0.0–7.1) 9.2 (4.8–15.7) 0.0 (0.0–1.5) 0.0 (0.0) 8.1 (5.3–10.8) 0.2 (0.0–4.2)
Pooled CFR (95% CI) 5.4% (2.7–8.9%) 6.7% (0.0–19.9%) 0.9% (0.6–1.3%) 0.8% (0.0–5.7%) 7.2% (0.0–20.4%) 2.0% (1.4–2.8%)

∗a
No median; IQR = interquartile range; CI = confidence interval.

porting mortality, 250 died, for a CFR of 1.9% (Table 3). The pooled Discussion
CFR estimate (95% CI; heterogeneity I2 ) among 79 studies report-
ing on mortality of confirmed typhoid fever was 2.0% (1.4–2.8%; Our systematic review of published literature from 1980
83.9%). The pooled CFR estimates for the Asia, Africa, Oceania, the through 2020 of predominantly hospitalized typhoid fever patients
Americas, and Europe regions were 0.9% (0.6–1.3%; 63.4%), 5.4% demonstrates a substantial prevalence of typhoid complications
(2.7–8.9%; 83.4%), 7.2% (0.0–20.4%; 97.2%), 6.7% (0.0–19.9%; 94.4%), and death. We estimated a CFR of 2.0%, with significant variation
and 1.0% (0.0–6.8%; incalculable), respectively. Data on outcomes by UN region. A considerable proportion of hospitalized patients
for multi-drug resistant Salmonella Typhi infection, outcomes and with typhoid experienced complications. At the same time, delays
sub-regions and sub-regional forest plots for South-eastern Asia, in care, as measured by duration of fever or illness before pre-
Southern Asia, Eastern Africa, and Western Africa, including strat- sentation, were associated with increased CFR. However, we also
ification in these sub-regions by age groups, are provided in Sup- identified significant differences in prevalence of complications and
plementary Appendix D and E, respectively. CFR between community-based and hospital-based studies, sug-
Sixty-seven (84.8%) of 79 non-surgical study sites were gesting a bias towards poorer outcomes in hospital-based studies.
hospital-based, and 12 (15.2%) were population or community- Among hospital-based non-surgical studies, the CFR of typhoid
based studies.37 , 38 , 60 , 73 , 84 , 90 , 96 , 118 Ten (83.3%) of 12 non-hospital fever was significantly higher in Africa compared to Asia. Although
study sites were located in Asia and two (16.7%) in Africa; one each there was no association between delay in care and CFR in Africa,
in Kenya37 and Burkina Faso.60 No deaths were reported among our ability to detect an association was influenced by fewer data
866 confirmed typhoid cases in the 12 non-hospital sites compared from Africa compared with Asia, where a statistically significant
to 250 (2.0%) of 12,437 hospital-based confirmed cases (X2 =16.7; positive correlation was identified. Despite Africa comprising 39%
p<0.01). The pooled CFR estimate for non-surgical hospital-based of included study sites, it accounted for only 12% of all confirmed
study sites was 2.4% (1.6–3.3%; 85.9%) compared to 0.2% (0.0– typhoid cases in our review. The limited data available on con-
0.7%; 0.0%) for non-hospital sites. The pooled CRF estimate among firmed typhoid fever cases and smaller sample sizes of African
hospital-based sites in Asia was 1.0% (0.6–1.5%; 69.7%) compared studies may be due to lower typhoid incidence,23 compounded by
to 6.2% (3.2–10.2%; 83.5%) among hospital-based sites in Africa the lack of capacity of many health care centers in Africa to obtain
(Fig. 2). and perform blood cultures.133–135 Delays were longer in hospital-
based sites compared to community-based sites, and such delays
in diagnosis, appropriate treatment, and management of complica-
Care delays and outcome tions may contribute to the higher CFR identified among hospital
studies. Others have linked duration of illness prior to hospitaliza-
Of 84 non-surgical studies, 20 (23.8%) reported a mean or me- tion with increased prevalence of typhoid complications.19
dian duration of fever, illness, or symptoms prior to care, as well Intestinal perforation was a common complication and an im-
as CFR. Two studies stratified duration of fever, one by age38 portant contributor to typhoid mortality, especially in African stud-
and the other by sex,66 for a total of 22 estimates. Of 22 esti- ies where one in five patients with TIP died. A lack of access to
mates, seven (31.8%) were from Africa,30 , 37 , 59 , 66 , 81 , 122 12 (54.6%) surgical services and resources for post-operative management and
from Asia,36 , 38 , 41 , 72 , 84 , 96 , 98 , 102 , 105 , 109 , 131 and one each (4.5%) were intensive care, if needed, likely contribute to the high CFR seen
from the Americas,97 Europe,101 and Oceania.108 Among all 22 es- among TIP patients.48 , 123 , 133 , 136 The prevalence of TIP as a compli-
timates, there was a statistically non-significant positive correla- cation of typhoid fever in non-surgical studies may be underesti-
tion of longer delay in care with increased CFR (r = 0.11; p = 0.64). mated by our review, as some such studies were often done solely
Among the 12 estimates from Asia, there was a significant positive on medical wards or in hospitals that lacked surgical facilities.
correlation between delay in care and CFR (r = 0.84; p<0.01) and a A substantial limitation of our review was the preponderance
non-significant negative correlation between delay in care and CFR of hospital-based studies. This introduced a bias towards higher
(−0.42; p = 0.35) among seven estimates from Africa. Scatterplots prevalence of complications and higher CFR. However, care seeking
for delay in care are shown in Supplementary Appendix F. behavior for febrile illnesses is not driven exclusively by severity.
Among 19 estimates in Asia and Africa, the mean (range) delay In some settings, poor transportation infrastructure, cost of health-
in care was 7.5 (2.0–16.4) days in Asia and 9.4 (6.7–11.0) days in care, and difficulty in obtaining referrals can result in the sick-
Africa (p = 0.19). Among the 17 hospital-based estimates reporting est patients not reaching care.5–7 Alternatively, community-based
delay in care metrics, the mean (range) delay was 9.3 (5.0–16.4) studies alter the outcome towards the null by enhancing typhoid
days, compared with 5.3 (2.0–10.4) days among five community- diagnosis and management, allowing early treatment before pro-
based estimates (p = 0.03).

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C.S. Marchello, M. Birkhold and J.A. Crump Journal of Infection 81 (2020) 902–910

Fig. 2. Forest plot of typhoid case fatality ratio among non-surgical hospital-based study sites in Asia and Africa, by year, 1978–2018.

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C.S. Marchello, M. Birkhold and J.A. Crump Journal of Infection 81 (2020) 902–910

gression to severe and complicated disease.137 We attempted to References


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