This report is prepared solely for the use of Nabil Aboulzelof

4Q20 Earnings Wrap

February 2021
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4Q20 Earnings

4Q20 reported pretax profit versus AutonoE

210% 4Q20 Median = 13%

161%

3Q20 Median = 37%

2Q20 Median = 13%
160% 1Q20 Median = -4%
123%

4Q19 Median = 4%
3Q19 Median = 1%
2Q19 Median = 5%
110%
1Q19 Median = 6%
75%

4Q18 Median = -4%

41%

40%

37%

60%
32%

30%

17%

14%

12%

11%

10%

9%

8%

5%

5%

2%

0%

0%
10%
ABN 3122%

KBC -10%
-40%
UBSG

KN
BBVA

RBI
BNP
CABK

BG
ACA

SEBA
BKIA

SAN
MB

SWEDA
DANSKE
GLE

SHBA
DBK

INGA

DNB

NDA

Source: Company data, Autonomous Research estimates. 1

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4Q20 Earnings

4Q20 reported pre-provision profit versus AutonoE

100% 4Q20 Median = 3%

81%

3Q20 Median = 6%
2Q20 Median = 6%
80%
1Q20 Median = -2%
4Q19 Median = 4%
60% 3Q19 Median = 2%
2Q19 Median = 2%
1Q19 Median = 4%
36%

30%

40%
25%

20%

15%

13%

11%

20%
8%

7%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%
0%

-1%

-1%

-5%
-3%

BBVA -6%

INGA -7%

RBI -8%
-20%

-14%
UBSG

KN

UCG
ISP

BNP
CABK

BG
ACA
SEBA

ABN
BKIA
SAB

SAN
MB

SWEDA
DANSKE

GLE
SHBA

DBK

KBC
DNB

NDA

CBK
Source: Company data, Autonomous Research estimates. 2
 This report is prepared solely for the use of Nabil Aboulzelof

Earnings Revisions

AutonoE 2021E earnings revision post 4Q20

27%

30% 4Q20 Median = 5%

3Q20 Median = 3%
2Q20 Median = -1%
22%

25%
21%

1Q20 Median = 0%
19%

4Q19 Median = 0%
20%
15%

12%

15%
11%

11%
10%

5%

4%

4%
5%

2%

1%

1%

1%

0%
0%

0%
-5%

-10%

SAB-8%
UCG

UBSG

ISP
BBVA
CABK

BG

SEBA
BKIA

SAN

SWEDA
MB
DANSKE

SHBA
DBK

NDA

DNB
CBK

Source: Company data, Autonomous Research estimates. 3

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Decomposing Earnings Revisions

2021E PBT revision drivers

20.0%

15.1%
15.0%

10.0% 8.6%

5.0%
2.4%

0.0%

-1.4%
-5.0%

-7.5%
-10.0%
Revenues Costs Provisions Other Total PBT revision

Source: Company data, Autonomous Research estimates. Figures as a percentage of pretax profit. Negatives = bad, positives = good. 4
 0%

-60%
-40%
-20%
20%
40%
60%
SAB 124%

CBK 112%

HSBA 26%
KBC 15%
CABK 11%
BG 9%
CSGN 7%
INGA 6%

Median = -1%
GLE 5%

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Autonomous Research estimates.

DNB 4%
SEBA 3%
SWEDA 3%
MB 2%
NDA 2%
UBSG 1%
SAN 0%
SHBA -1%
ACA -2%
EBS -3%
DANSKE -5%
4Q20 Earnings

BKIA -6%
AutonoE 2021E earnings vs. consensus

BNP -6%
ISP -7%
KN -9%
BBVA -9%
This report is prepared solely for the use of Nabil Aboulzelof

STAN -10%
UCG -11%
RBI -14%
NWG -15%
BARC -30%
LLOY -35%
DBK -57%

ABN -139%
5
 This report is prepared solely for the use of Nabil Aboulzelof

Earnings Revisions

AutonoE 2022E earnings revision post 4Q20

12%

15%
10%

4Q20 Median = 3%
8%

10%
6%

5%

5%

5%

4%

3%
5%

3%

2%

1%

1%

-24%
1%
0%

0%

-2%

-2%
-5%

-10%

-15%

UBSG

UCG
BBVA

ISP

CABK

BG
SEBA

BKIA
SAB

SAN

SWEDA
MB
DANSKE
SHBA

DBK
DNB

NDA

CBK
Source: Company data, Autonomous Research estimates. 6
 This report is prepared solely for the use of Nabil Aboulzelof

4Q20 Capital – CET1 ratio

4Q 2020 vs. 3Q 2020 fully phased CET1 ratio

20%

18%

16% 4Q ave so far = 15.3%

14% 3Q ave = 14.6%

12%

10%
SHB

BAWAG
ING

BBVA
BNP
Commerzbank
Bankia

Cred Ag
Swedbank

Raiffeisen

Santander
SEB

Nordea
Mediobanca
Danske

Sabadell
KBC
ABN AMRO

CaixaBank
Intesa
Unicredit

Deutsche
DNB

Soc Gen
3Q 2020 4Q 2020

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Autonomous Research estimates. 7

 This report is prepared solely for the use of Nabil Aboulzelof

4Q20 Capital – CET1 ratio

Fully phased CET1 ratio

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%
ING
SHB

BBVA
BAWAG

BNP
Swedbank

Mediobanca

Bankia

Commerzbank

Cred Ag

Santander
SEB

Nordea

Raiffeisen

Sabadell
Danske

KBC
ABN AMRO

Intesa

Deutsche
DNB

Unicredit

Soc Gen
CaixaBank
4Q 2019 1Q 2020 2Q 2020 3Q 2020 4Q 2020

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Autonomous Research estimates. 8

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Summary of Q4 results

Autonomou
4Q40 Actual vs AutonoE 4Q40 Actual vs Consensus

Net Net
Revenues Costs PPP Provisions PBT profit Revenues Costs PPP Provisions PBT profit
ABN -2% -1% -5% -47% 3122% 173% -1% 2% -9% -41% 186% -182%
Bankia 9% 0% 30% -11% 123% 65% 6% 0% 19% #N/A 327% 138%
Barclays #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
BAWAG -2% -2% -1% -8% 2% 9% 0% -4% 4% -8% 9% 13%
BBVA -2% 2% -6% -23% 10% 20% -2% 0% -4% -30% 18% 28%
BNP -1% 0% -1% -11% 8% #N/A 1% 0% 4% -4% 9% #N/A
CaixaBank 11% -6% 36% -36% 30% 20% 10% -5% 33% -36% #N/A 19%
Commerzbank -2% 1% -14% -1% #N/A #N/A -1% 0% -9% 1% #N/A #N/A
Credit Agricole 3% 1% 5% -36% 161% 1100% 4% 3% 7% -35% 202% -365%
Credit Suisse #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Danske 3% 0% 11% -12% 17% 18% 1% 3% -4% -21% -1% -8%
Deutsche Bank -1% -1% 4% -45% 41% #N/A 0% -2% 31% -30% 26% #N/A
DNB 11% -1% 25% 147% 12% 40% 6% 5% 8% 33% 4% 28%
Erste #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
SHBA 4% 0% 8% -43% 11% 6% 3% 2% 5% -84% 18% 13%
HSBC #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
ING -2% 0% -7% -65% 37% 40% -1% -1% -2% -69% 78% 57%
Intesa 5% 0% 13% -32% #N/A #N/A 7% 9% 3% -19% #N/A #N/A
KBC -3% -2% -3% 45% -10% -11% -1% -2% 0% 4% -1% 0%
Lloyds #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Mediobanca 9% -2% 20% -45% 40% 33% 7% -2% 16% -49% #N/A 36%
Natixis 0% -2% 3% 5% 5% 83% 12% 5% 31% -15% 51% 55%
Nordea 1% -1% 2% -68% 5% #N/A 1% 2% 0% -70% 4% #N/A
Raiffeisen -2% 1% -8% -19% 0% -11% -3% 0% -6% -35% 45% 47%
NWG #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Sabadell 18% -1% 81% 50% #N/A #N/A 18% -2% 85% 69% #N/A #N/A
Santander 2% 0% 3% -8% 14% 9% 3% 1% 4% -8% 16% 13%
SEB 4% 0% 7% -2% 9% 11% 3% -3% 10% 8% 10% 11%
SocGen 2% 2% 2% -35% 75% #N/A 2% 1% 6% -30% 77% #N/A
StanChart #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Swedbank 2% -1% 4% 46% 0% 3% 2% -3% 7% -20% 9% 11%
UBS 1% -3% 15% -76% 32% #N/A 7% -1% 42% -59% 54% #N/A
Unicredit -1% -3% 2% -8% #N/A #N/A -1% -4% 2% -10% #N/A #N/A
Median 1% -1% 3% -15% 13% 20% 2% 0% 4% -21% 18% 13%
Average 3% -1% 9% -13% 170% 95% 3% 0% 11% -22% 57% -5%

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Autonomous Research estimates. 9

 This report is prepared solely for the use of Nabil Aboulzelof

Summary of Q3 revisions

Autonomous 2021 revision drivers Autonomous 2022 revision drivers Consensus 2021 revision

PPP Total PBT Net Income PPP Total PBT Net Income
Revenues Costs Provisions Other revision revision revision Revenues Costs Provisions Other revision revision revision
ABN #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Bankia 29% 0% -2% 0% 5% 27% 27% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1%
Barclays #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
BAWAG -1% 1% 8% 0% 0% 7% 4% -3% 4% 6% 0% 1% 7% 4%
BBVA -26% 18% 19% -8% -3% 3% 19% 5% 2% 2% -2% 4% 7% 8%
BNP #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
CaixaBank 4% 0% 0% 3% 10% 8% 22% 6% 2% -2% -1% 7% 6% 5%
Commerzbank -149% 28% 181% 0% -19% 60% 11% -45% 9% 17% 0% -21% -20% -24%
Credit Agricole #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Credit Suisse #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Danske -6% 11% 1% 1% 4% 8% 11% -5% 4% 1% 0% 0% 1% 3%
Deutsche Bank 8% -4% 3% 0% 2% 8% 21% -1% 0% 1% 0% -1% -1% 1%
DNB -1% 0% 2% 1% -1% 2% 1% 4% 0% 2% 1% 3% 6% 5%
Erste #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
SHBA 3% -5% 8% 0% -2% 5% 5% 8% -4% 0% 0% 3% 3% 3%
HSBC #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
ING #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Intesa -1% 2% -1% 0% 1% 0% 0% 2% 3% 0% 0% 3% 5% 6%
KBC #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Lloyds #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Mediobanca 3% -2% 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 2% -2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Natixis #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Nordea 2% -1% 3% 0% 1% 4% 4% 3% -1% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2%
Raiffeisen #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
NWG #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Sabadell -7% 4% 20% -23% -1% -6% -8% 15% 3% -1% -6% 8% 11% 12%
Santander 2% 0% 10% 1% 1% 13% 15% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 9% 10%
SEB 0% 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 1% 3% 0% 2% 0% 3% 5% 5%
SocGen #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
StanChart #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A
Swedbank 0% -4% 3% 0% -3% 0% 0% 2% -3% 0% 0% -2% -2% -2%
UBS 6% -4% 0% 0% 2% 2% 2% 7% -5% 0% 0% 2% 2% 1%
Unicredit -2% 0% 14% -1% -1% 10% 12% -3% 0% 1% 1% -2% -2% -2%
Median 0% 0% 3% 0% 1% 5% 5% 2% 0% 1% 0% 2% 2% 3%
Average -7% 2% 15% -1% 0% 9% 8% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 2% 2%

Source: Company data, Bloomberg, Autonomous Research estimates. 10

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General Disclaimer

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