NEURAL NETWORKS FOR RIVER
practical problems, particularly in areas where conventional
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should be evaluated against conventional methods for solving
FLOW PREOICTION a
Discussion by Richard J. Heggen5
The authors are to be congratulated for their paper. The
work is indeed encouraging. The hydrologic application makes
the technique real to those of us not in the artificial intelli-
gence arena.
Cascade-correlation appears to be an extension of dynamic
programming, albeit with less curse of dimensionality. The
schematics are similar. The forward and backward solutions
are mutual. Dynamic programming is familiar to water-re-
sources engineers. A conceptual tie between the algorithms
may more quickly incorporate neural networks in the toolkit.
The example problem is relatively trivial, given the quag-
mire of data in complex water-resources systems. Fig. 5 shows
that the power function does what it should do. The simple
example, however, serves this paper well. It illustrates so-
lution of a contained, understandable problem.
That this result appears better than the power function is
of questionable meaning. The power-function citation is 30
years old. Alternatives are plentiful. The power function is
not a standard. It may work well for a particular data set,
but why not first try an even simpler linear, decimal-weight
x apportionment?
D = xU + (1 - x)(A - M)
The single constant of (18) consumes one degree of freedom;
(5) consumes three. Error minimization is the trade-off. Eq.
(5) might yield a smaller error, however measured, than (18),
but be an inferior model because of its need for two additional
parameters. Degrees of freedom in the cascade-correlation
algorithm are elusive, but in a qualitative sense the model
consumes many. Its performance is enhanced accordingly.
If the vectors A, D, H, and M are appropriately lagged for
travel time, all the models should improve. If moving averages
or, as the authors employ, 5-day windows are used, all the
models again improve.
That the neural network comes closer on peak flows than
the power equation says as much about curve fitting nonlog-
arithmic data as about neural networks. The authors properly
note the propensity for bias at extreme events, but fail to
note that such bias can be corrected many ways. An advantage
of the neural-network approach, noted in the example, is that
the adjustment happens within the algorithm, and need not
be predefined or iterated by the analyst, as (8) and (18) would
require.
Overall, the authors present an informative argument for
hydrologic application of neural networks. Hopefully, con-
tinued studies will address more-difficult modeling tasks,
showing the approach to be effective not where conventional
methods work, but where conventional methods fail.
Closure by William J. Grenney, 6
Member, ASCE
The discussion by Richard J. Heggen further develops the
writers' proposition that new tools such as neural networks
"April, 1994, Vol. R. No.2. hy Nachimuthu Karunanithi, William J.
Grenney. Darrell Whitley. and Ken Bovee (Paper 4230).
'Assoc. Prof.. Civ. Engrg., Univ. of New Mexico. Albuquerque, NM
87131.
·Prof., Civ. Engrg.. Utah State Univ .• Logan, UT l)4322.
J. Comput. Civ. Eng., 1995, 9(4): 293-293
methods fail. The writers hope that their paper has stimulated
interest in others to explore the potential for neural-network
applications for water-resources systems.
GEOMETRIC-BASED REASONING SYSTEM
FOR. PROJECT PLANNING a
Discussion by Arkady Retik, 3 Member, ASCE
The paper by the authors is an interesting and well-pre-
sented work; nevertheless, a few points need to be clarified.
The authors mentioned that "animation helps in manually
identifying any conflict in the generated plan." What do au-
thors mean by manually? Does this mean visually? Also what
is meant by '"any conflict in the generated plan?" What is
meant by this is unclear. From the discusser's experience of
visualization of building products (Retik et al. 1990; Retik
1993) the wealth of the graphical information contained even
in a simple project (e.g. skeleton, fixtures, finishes, mechan-
(18) ical, and electrical systems) can completely blur the image of
the building under construction, preventing visual interac-
tion.
A similar problem arises with other analog and numerical
representations of all activities associated with a large or me-
dium-sized building project. The discusser's solution to this
problem is to represent the project hierarchically by work
packages, each containing a group of activities, e.g. a struc-
ture erection or finishing works of a complete building section
(segment, floor, etc.). Each of such sections may be repre-
sented separately, in more detail, with its various activities.
In this case, once the project is updated at the lowest level
the result may be seen at all higher levels. There are three
levels of hierarchy; the lowest activities are connected to the
intermediate sections, which, in turn, are connected to the
overall structure. A conventional hammock format is used
for this.
To make the picture understandable, every level can be
connected to the different set of the parametric library of the
graphical elements. For example, at the project level the li·
brary elements such as roads and approaches, storage facil-
ities, storage areas, cranes and rails, and auxiliary structures,
may be necessary for generating the project picture. The li-
brary elements can be very schematic, although providing
enough realistic visual presentation. The adjustment of the
elements to the project context may be done through the
dimension parameters once the project is set up. The actual
location of the elements during the project should be related
to the project progress similar to the activities schedule [see
Retik et al. (1990)].
The buildings and structures on the section level can be
created from simple three-dimensional (3D) parametric boxes
or prisms. Their dimensions and visualization images (color,
texture, etc.) should be variables of the composing activities
their groups (sections). The relationships between the visual
"January, 1994, Vol. S. No.1, by A. A. Morad and Y. J. Beliveau
(Paper 4510).
~Sr. Leet., Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Univ. of Strathclyde, 107 Rottenrow.
Glasgow. U.K.
JOURNAL OF COMPUTING IN CIVIL ENGINEERING / OCTOBER 1995/293