INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS ASSIGNMENT

on

“GAME THEORY”

By SHIV SATYA

Roll 31

Topics covered:

 Introduction and origin of the concept of Game Theory

 Components and assumptions of the theory.
 Types of Games
 Conflict, competition and Cooperation
 India China conflict through the prism of game theory
 Relevance
 Drawbacks

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 GAME THEORY

INTRODUCTION
Oxford Concise Dictionary of Politics defines Game theory in the following words: “A game
is any situation in which the outcomes (pay offs) are, the product of the interaction of
more than one rational player. It has also been defined as “a body of thought dealing with
rational decision strategies in situations of conflict and competition, when each
participant or player seeks to maximise games and minimise losses”.

This theory has been useful in analysing situations of

conflict, competition and cooperation.

ORIGIN OF THE CONCEPT OF GAME THEORY

In the thirties and forties of the last century the idea of applying games to social science
particularly in economics and politics originated in the minds of people. In 1932 P. G.
Cambray published, The Game of Politics: A Study of the Principles of British Political
Strategies. Perhaps this is the earliest and most methodical work about game theory. In
1943 Neumann and Morgenstern published Theory of Games and Economic Behaviour.

After Neumann and Morgenstern large number of scholars dealt with the subject and some of
them are—Schelling, Riker, Kaplan, Raiffa etc. Game theory was being used with increasing
frequency since 1960s. When the theory of games was used to study the power games or
strategy of each big or superpower to counteract the move of another power or rival the game
theory earned wider popularity and use. It is known that in all the games there are two or more
players or parties and each party decides its own strategy so that it can maximise benefit. But
the strategy of a party or player depends upon the decision-making, cooperation or strategy of
another party

One party cannot take any decision unilaterally. Profit or loss of the game depends upon the
selection of strategy or decision making or cooperation. There is also a place of intelligence.
After the Second World War the theory of games became, in fact, a strategic policy used for
the analysis of international politics particularly the power politics between the two
superpowers—USA and USSR.

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COMPONENTS OF GAME THEORY:

1. Players or decision makers

2. Strategies available to each player which take into account the potential behaviour of
opponents.
3. Rules governing players’ behaviour.
4. Outcome, each of which is a result of particular choices made by players at a given
point in that game
5. Pay off accrued by each player as a result of possible outcomes.

ASSUMPTIONS OF THE THEORY

1. In the first place, it has been assumed that there must be at least two players because for
any game this is the minimum requirement.’ The number of players may be greater than two
and this depends upon the nature of game and willingness of the participants.

2. Here the word player is used in special sense. Player means decision-maker. The players of
the game are concerned with the strategy or decision. Each player of the game is exclusively
interested in arriving at a decision which will be beneficial to him.

3. The dictionary meaning of strategy is a plan designed to achieve a particular long term aim
and the player of the game decides this type of strategy. Without deciding this strategy the
player is not capable of playing. The theory, therefore, assumes that in every game there is a
strategy and it is decided by the player of the game.

4. Rationality is still another assumption. It is assumed that the players of the game are guided
by rationality which means that they always act rationally.

5. Another assumption is the player is quite aware of the alternatives which exist before him
and he selects one or more than one alternatives from them. The rationality of the player
enables him to select the alternatives.

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6. While he selects the alternative/alternatives he adopts the rule of priority which means
that in order of preference he arranges the alternatives and he selects one or two which he
thinks would give him maximum pay-off.

7. Since the player is interested in pay-off he, it is quite natural, will make all sorts of attempts
and apply the strategy to maximise the benefit and minimise the loss from the game. This
approach of maximisation and minimisation is the core of game theory and it is called the
strategy.

8. The pay-off received from the game will be in full conformity with player’s own
interests or what he ardently desired. Naturally any amount of pay-off or any kind of pay-
off will not be acceptable to the player.

9. The player is quite aware that in the game there are both loss and gain or profit or loss. So
the player will decide the strategy and the strategy is what way or technique he will adopt that
will give him maximum pay-off. It means that the player is not only rational but also
intelligent.

10. In the game certain amount of uncertainty is involved. Although the player adopts
strategy, rationality and intelligence in the game all these do not guarantee that his loss will be
zero and gain will be maximum. This can never happen because of the fact that both gain and
loss are involved.

11. The strategy is an undefined term. What type of strategy is to be adopted cannot be
decided before hand. It depends on the progress of the game, attitude of other
competitors and other, factors. We have already noted that the objective of the player is to
maximise the pay-off.

But if the player is certain that this objective will never be achieved he will adopt the policy
of damage control which means to minimise the loss. The assumption of the game is
minimax policy. The term minimax may be briefly stated. By adopting strategy the player
tries to lower the quantum of loss and keep the amount gain.

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TWO PILLARS OF GAME THEORY

 Rationality
 Maximisation

The concept of rationality is associated with consistency. In other words, when a man at one
time acts rationally he will follow the same course of action.

While the rational economic man proceeds to maximise pay off, he may not achieve success
because the economic problems are complex and their solution requires the interference of
several elements or-factors which are not under the control of the rational economic man.

Under such circumstances the apprehension may occupy his mind that his maximisation of
pay-off may not be successful and in that situation will he abandon the attempt? The
exponents and interpreters of the theory are of the opinion that the rational economic man will
try to see that if gain is not maximised the loss could somehow be minimised.

TYPES OF GAME THEORY

ZERO SUM GAMES

In this category if one person gains the other person will incur loss. So what is gain to one
may be loss to the other.

If one person launches an assault upon the other person and achieves some advancement, it
means the loss to the other man. Niccolo Machiavelli in The Prince advised the prince that it
was the primary duty of any ruler to ensure the unity and integrity of the nation and to
that end the prince must make all efforts which include to launch the first attack against
his enemy and when he does that he gets benefit and the other party loses.

Let us take an example of Zero sum game from the period following the Second world war.

After the Second World War (1939-45) the world was divided into two camps—one was led
by the United States and the other by the erstwhile Soviet Union. The advancement of the
Soviet camp was tantamount to the loss of the American camp, and vice versa. This happened
during the Cold War period from fifties to the mid-seventies of the last century. After the
collapse of the Cold War the game of power died a natural death.

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The interesting aspect of the Cold War period was both the groups or parties were involved in
continuous rivalry. The victory of one party could not deter the other, rather it
encouraged and instigated the other party or group to take a new strategy or adopt of
policy that would produce favourable results.

Theory of games also involves ideological conflict. The Cold War was characterised not only
by the game of power between the two groups but also by the ideological conflict between
Soviet Union and United States. Former Soviet Union and her allies of Eastern Europe which
represented communism while America and other members of the group stood for capitalism
or liberalism.

The move of each party was designed to stall the positive arid aggressive move of another
party in respect of ideological warfare. U.S.A. used the electronic and print media’ to prove
the superiority and excellence of capitalism or liberal democracy. The Soviet Union did not
lag behind. She distributed the literature of Marx, Engels and Lenin among the people of the
Third World either at nominal price or freely.

Needless to say that in many instances America gained over Russia which meant loss for
Russia. In this model of zero-sum games the parties are America and Russia and the purpose
of each is to gain over the others.

.VARIABLE SUM GAMES

In the opinion of Karl Deutsch: “These are games in which the players not only win
something competitively from one another, but also collectively stand to gain or lose
something from an additional player. Such games are mixed- motive games for their primary
players”. Such games are generally characterized by competition and coordination. Deutsch
has cited an illustration.

In many countries revolts have been found to be erupted among the prisoners. Some
prisoners defy the order of the prison guards and try to escape from the prison. The
prison guards, to save their services, resist this move and the prisoners remain adamant
and this leads to some skirmishes. In the melee some prisoners escape and this is their
gain while others fail to do this and this is their loss.

The conflict between prisoners and prison guards has been interpreted as a type of game
theory. There is another side. Some prisoners may oppose the attempt of their co-prisoners
and this may favourably be treated by the prison authority. Here the point is no side gains
absolutely and the loss is not absolute.

In some games both parties may lose to and by different amounts or to a different
degree(negative sum game) or may even gain in different amounts(positive sum game)

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Another offshoot of the application of game theory in international politics is in order to
gain more, nations (particularly big powers) form alliances or coalitions and these are
called military alliances. The chief objective is to control international politics and each
nation takes a strategy so that its position gets enhanced.

So the rivalry among the power groups always remains a characteristic feature of world
politics and so long it is so the theory of games will continue to be a relevant factor of
international politics.

Another example of non - Zero sum game is the concept of Prisoner’s Dilemma:

 In case both the parties decide to cheat, it looks like a negative sum game
 both parties cooperating takes the case of positive sum with respect to quantum of
punishments.
 The case wherein one party breaches and the other doesn’t is not very likely in today’s
geopolitical scenario.

It illustrates the paradoxical nature of interaction between two suspicious participants with
opposing interests. The severity of the punishment that each may receive is determined not
only by their behaviour but also by the behaviour of their accomplices

CONFLICT,COMPETITION AND COOPERATION ASPECT

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 1. CONFLICT-Two countries/powers/blocks may be in direct entanglement with each
other wherein the loss of one is the gain of other.eg-territorial wars.
2. COMPETITION-The groups might be in a race to top in certain parameters, For
example China and US fight to be on the top in economic terms, forces them to go for
trade wars or different strategies vis a vis rest of the world to enhance their trade or
investments or presence.
3. COOPERATION ASPECT-The climate change is something which is a matter of
concern for the whole world. The climate can be taken care of only when the countries
cooperate with respect to shifting from conventional fuels or reducing the pollution
levels. The Paris climate deal is the perfect example wherein all the countries of the
world need to cooperate with each other to reduce their losses in terms of quality of
life of its citizens.

LOOKING AT THE CURRENT INDIA CHINA STAND OFF THROUGH

THE PRISM OF GAME THEORY

Right from the month of May we have seen a major military buildup by China is Eastern
Ladakh and around the finger areas of the Pangong Tso lake.

The matter still remains unresolved with the Chinese side not allowing the
routine patrolling of the Indian army upto finger 8 of the Pangong area and refused to get to
the status quo of the month of April.

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 Here, the concept of Game theory comes into picture as:

 The loss of any territory of India will be an addition in the Chinese territory.(zero sum
game)
 If the Chinese side starts to withdraw its troops for normalcy, there are chances that
the Indian side will capitalise on it and might even transgress in their territory.
 So, because of this lack of trust, both the sides have preferred to call for more troops
and sit eye ball to eye ball even in this harsh winter , waiting for the opponent to do
any miscalculation.
 Looking into the strategic point of view from the Indian side:on the intervening night
of 29th and 30th August , the Indian Army captured the heights lying between the
southern bank of the Pangong lake and the smaller Spanggur lake further south.Peaks
like Black top, Helmet top , Rechin La are under the Indian control.

This will serve 2 purposes:

1. Give strategic advantage to India in case of any offensive action over the Chinese
camp.
2. Give some bargaining power in the negotiations with the Chinese PLA.

AN EVALUATION OF GAME THEORY

Game theory has not only contributed to the development of models of deterrence and arms
race, but it has also provided the basis for work concerning the issue of how collaboration
among competitive states in an anarchic world could be achieved.

We see that the relevance of Game theory can be still felt in International Relations and it
will continue to develop further and build upon the scenarios worldwide. Taking cue
from the historical actions and their outcomes , it will further enhance the understanding of
this concept in future times.

DRAWBACKS

 As the number of players increase, it gets difficult to apply the logic.

 The mathematical models don’t quite fit in Qualitative scenarios.
 It provides a general rule of logic and not the winning strategy.

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