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Bosnia and Herzegovina registers improvement for 12 places on Global

Terrorism Index - an increase in right-wing terrorism in the world

Article · December 2018

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Safet Mušić
Ministry of Defense, Bosnia and Herzegovina
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 Bosnia and Herzegovina registers improvement for 12 places on Global
Terrorism Index - an increase in right-wing terrorism in the world

In December, the sixth edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which analyze
2017, was published. The report provides a comprehensive summary of key global
trends and patterns of terrorism over the past 20 years, and GTI is being developed by
the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) based on data from the Global Terrorist
Database (GTD). Data for GTD collect National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism
and Responses to Terrorism from University of Maryland. The key point of the report
for 2017 is that total number of deaths from terrorism has fallen by 27% and has
declined for the third consecutive year. The main reasons are: a fall in the intensity of
the conflict in the Middle East, the decline of ISIL and increased anti-terrorism efforts.
Furthermore, the number of terrorist attacks in 2017 decreased, which fell by 23%, but
terrorism is still prevalent and represents a major global threat. Europe had the highest
percentage improvement over last year, and with total deaths falling by 75%.

At the top of the list of countries with the highest number of terrorist attacks and the
risk of terrorism, there was no change compared to 2016, meaning it is still the first in
the list Iraq, followed by Afghanistan, Nigeria, Syria, Pakistan and Somalia.

Europe was the region with the most pronounced improvement in the impact of
terrorism and there has been a significant decline in terrorist activities, despite threats
from returnees from foreign battlefields and online radicalization. The number of
deaths from terrorism in Europe fell from 168 in 2016 to 81 in 2017. The most
significant decline were recorded in Turkey, France, Belgium and Germany, while the
increase were recorded by Great Britain, Spain, Sweden, Finland and Austria.

People with a criminal background especially susceptible to radicalization

Social alienation, lack of economic opportunities and involvement in external conflicts

are major factors associated with terrorist activities in Western Europe, North America
and other economically developed regions. There is a growing body of evidence which
indicates that people in Western Europe with a criminal background may be especially
susceptible to alignment with extremist beliefs, radicalization, and possible
recruitment by terrorist groups.

Most of the studies conducted in Western Europe find that more than 40 per cent of
foreign fighters and those arrested for terrorist activity have some form of criminal
background. The threat of far-right political terrorism is on the rise, and there were 66
deaths from terrorism caused by far-right groups and individuals. The majority of
attacks were carried out by lone actors with far-right, white nationalist, or anti-Muslim
beliefs. Some estimates suggest that over 40,000 foreign fighters have joined ISIL in
Syria and Iraq since the beginning of 2013.

Bosnia and Herzegovina

On the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is ranked as 91st,
out of 163 countries on the GTI list, where BiH is also among 94 countries that recorded
improvements in the Index. Bosnia and Herzegovina is better placed for 12 places than
last year's list. Otherwise, the Global Terrorism Index is measured by the factors that

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influence the terrorist activities, and it is divided into 7 groups according to the level of
risk to terrorism. Countries with high risk, high, medium, low, very low risk, and a
group of countries in the group without influence, and at the end of a risk-free group,
are at the highest risk of terrorism. The first high risk group includes the already
mentioned countries, which occupy the leading 6 positions on the GTI list.

As can be seen from the presented tables, Bosnia and Herzegovina belongs to a group
of countries with a very low level of risk of terrorism, and in that group of countries
from the region there are more countries from the region, such as Croatia, Montenegro,
Serbia and Macedonia, Kosovo; that belongs to a low risk group, while Slovenia is the

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only one in the group without influence. All countries in the region recorded an
improvement (which means a drop in the list) or maintained the same positions on the
list, except for Serbia, which recorded a worsening on the list (growth for 9 places).

The aforementioned global reasons are also the main reasons for the improved
outcome of Bosnia and Herzegovina (drop in the GTI list), and for this reason it should
be noted that it has greatly helped the effective operation of Intelligence-Security
Agency of Bosnia and Herzegovina (OSA-OBA BiH), State Investigation and Protection
Agency (SIPA) and other competent security institutions. Also, the amendments of the
Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina that enabled the sanctioning of accused
persons for terrorist-related activities facilitated the work of judicial institutions. What
needs to be further improved are systemic measures to prevent radicalization that can
lead to violent actions, even to terrorist activities, and to make responsible state
institutions more aware of who and in what way is dealing with terrorism-related
issues. Because in recent years there has been the appearance of a large number of
unprofessional persons who call themselves experts for terrorism, although they have
no experience in dealing with security issues through the security, police or defense
structures of the state responsible for dealing with terrorism issues. Due to the
unprofessional activity of these self-proclaimed experts through projects implemented
by some international organizations in BiH (in good faith), then through public
statements and the presentation of unverified information and other data that are not
based on scientific basis, the reputation of the state has been violated on several
occasions and have been related negative connotations for the issues of terrorism in
Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The list of Global Terrorism Index clearly showed that Bosnia and Herzegovina is in
the same category of hazards and risks from terrorism, in which most countries in the
region and even countries such as Netherlands, Austria, Czech Republic, Bulgaria,
Denmark, Poland, Hungary, Estonia, Norway, Switzerland, Slovakia, Ireland and some
other countries. Then the question arises, on what basis Bosnia and Herzegovina in
some international circles is being distinguished and persistently linked with terrorism
much more than other countries. Even the leaders of some of the countries listed in
their statements misinformed the public about the increased risk of terrorism in Bosnia
and Herzegovina, although BiH is in the same or lower risk category of terrorism than
their own countries.

Such negative campaign is significantly contributed by already mentioned self-

proclaimed experts for terrorism, who for their own interest and wealth, groundlessly
exaggerate the real danger of terrorism in BiH, thus allowing themselves uncontrolled
earnings through consulting contracts with international organizations that
implement projects for the prevention of violent extremism in Bosnia and
Herzegovina. The aforementioned facts from the Index, as well as official information
from the Council of Ministers BiH and the Ministry of Security of BiH on the situation
in the field of terrorism, unambiguously indicate that those responsible in
international organizations (primarily the IOM in BiH and OSCE Mission to BiH)
review the current way of engaging experts and associates as consultants, to do so more
transparently and obligatorily check the references and experience of the candidates
before their engagement.

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 Future trends of violent extremism

Although in 2017 there was a sharp fall in the number of deaths by terrorism in Europe,
terrorist activity remains a significant security threat. Potential future sources of
terrorism include foreign fighters returning to Europe after the collapse of ISIL in Iraq
and Syria, as well as the danger of reviving the politically motivated extreme violence
in Western Europe and North America. Some recent events have increased the fear of
right-wing terrorism, so on October 27, 2018, anti-Semitic attacker Robert Bowers
killed 11 people in a synagogue in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. The former fireman had a
criminal past, and his online profile showed the history of anti-Semitic radicalization.
The deadliest year in North America in connection with the terrorist attacks of right-
wing terrorists after 2002, was 2017, with 16 deaths in 31 incidents, and the deadliest
armed attack on the Quebec mosque in January 2017 and resulted with six dead. The
number of incidents in Western Europe is also on the rise, there were 20 attacks for 13
years until 2014, while in the past three years until 2017, 61 attacks of right-wing
terrorists were recorded.

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