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DOI: 10.1002/tie.

22325

COMMENTARY

U.S.-China trade war and competitive advantage of Vietnam

Bablu Kumar Dhar 1 | Thanh Tiep Le 2 | Tina A. Coffelt 3 |


Jakhongir Shaturaev 4
1
Mahidol University International College,
Mahidol University, Phutthamonthon, Thailand Abstract
2
Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics China has been losing international competitiveness in labor-intensive industries due
and Finance, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
3
to various factors, including the trade war with the United States and globalization.
Department of English, Iowa State University,
Ames, Iowa, USA Vietnam, however, has rapidly expanded its labor-intensive exports. The paper
4
Tashkent State University of Economics, proposes to explore the future of labor-intensive industries in Vietnam due to the
Tashkent, Uzbekistan
U.S.-China trade war. The paper examines export performance data from United
Correspondence Nation Comtrade for 10 specific labor-intensive industries that serve the U.S. market
Bablu Kumar Dhar, Mahidol University
between 2000 and 2020 to assess the possibility of Vietnam overtaking China's posi-
International College, Mahidol University,
73170, Thailand. tion as the world's largest manufacturer. Using situation analysis, the paper compares
Email: bablu.kum@mahidol.ac.th
the competitive advantage of Vietnam in labor-intensive industries due to the
Thanh Tiep Le, Ho Chi Minh City University of
Economics and Finance, Ho Chi Minh City,
U.S.-China trade war. The paper found that China's competitiveness was negatively
Vietnam. impacted for the final two periods, while Vietnam's competitive advantage increased.
Email: tieplt@uef.edu.vn

KEYWORDS
competitive advantage, labor-intensive industry, U.S.-China trade war, Vietnam

1 | I N T RO DU CT I O N manufacturing employment in the U.S. dropped by 35% between


1998 and 2010 and recovered by about 7% through 2020.
Throughout the 19th and early 20th centuries, the United Kingdom At the start of the trade war, U.S. tariffs on China were 3.1%
led the first transfer of international industry; Japan and Germany (Li, Balistreri, & Zhang, 2020). By September 2018, the average tariffs
followed after the United States in the 1950s and 1960s. In the had risen to 12.0%, with new tariffs covering nearly half of bilateral
1970s, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong became imports (Figure 1). In retaliation, the average tariff on imports from
manufacturing hubs (Deyo, 2019). Since the early 1970s, when the United States increased from 8% to 18.3% (Bown, 2021).
China began its economic reforms, trade volume between the The trade deficit between the United States and China for 2020
United States and China has proliferated. China became the world's was $310.8 billion, which is 9% smaller than 2019's deficit of $345.2
factory after its reform and opening policy in the 1980s billion. As a result of U.S. exports to China totaling $124 billion and
(Byrd, 2019). The United States and China became one of each China's imports totaling $435.5 billion, there is a trade deficit (Thanh,
other's most important trading partners after China joined the Canh, & Doytch, 2020). According to the U.S. Census Bureau, China's
World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. U.S. goods exported to trade deficit with the United States was $315.1 billion in 2012. A total
China have consistently been more remarkable than those imported of $376.3 billion was reached in 2015 and dropped to $346.8 billion
from China, with a $375.6 billion trade deficit between the two in 2016. In 2018, it reached $418.9 billion before falling to $345.2
nations in 2017 (Li & Tu, 2018). billion in 2019. China's deficit with the United States dropped
Trade imbalances result when trading partners do not trade rela- to $310.8 billion at the end of 2020, the lowest level since 2011
tively equally. In order to remain competitive, American companies will (Moosa, Ramiah, Pham, & Watson, 2020; Wang, 2020).
have to cut costs if they cannot compete with cheaper Chinese goods. As of 2019, China's exports of 10 specific labor-intensive indus-
In the United States, manufacturing jobs have declined by approxi- tries totaled $571,24 billion, accounting for 34.51% of world trade for
mately 30% since 1998 (Brodeur, Gray, Islam, & Bhuiyan, 2021; these sectors based on the United Nation (UN) Comtrade database
Kapustina, Lipková, Silin, & Drevalev, 2020). Because of this, (Charlton & Kostandini, 2021). In 2020, China's exports to the

Thunderbird Int. Bus. Rev. 2022;1–9. wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/tie © 2022 Wiley Periodicals LLC. 1
2 COMMENTARY

FIGURE 1 Change of tariff. Source: Bown (2021) [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

United States will reach $133.02 billion, almost four times what they purchasing power from other countries, it has enjoyed growth over
were in 2000. Labor-intensive industries are expected to be imported the last 35 years due to liberalization. Over the past 20 years,
into the United States for $301.20 billion by 2020 (almost double the Vietnamese exports to the United States have increased from US
amount imported in 2000). In contrast, the export proportion of the $185.54 million in 2000 to US$37.38 billion in 2020, ranking second
labor-intensive industry has declined from 36.38% in 2000 to 22.96% among labor-intensive industry exports after 2017 in comparison to
in 2019 (Lipai, Lingling, Wenling, & Junshan, 2021). China (Jong, 2022), which has expanded industrial production and is
Vietnam and China rely heavily on labor-intensive industries to less dependent on exports. According to Nomura, a Japanese invest-
create and maintain jobs. On the contrary, when the U.S.-China ment bank, Vietnam's economy has been boosted by almost 8% due
trade war was in full swing, Vietnam (as a developing country) to the shift in production caused by the U.S.-China trade war. At its
increased exports from the labor-intensive industry. From 1991 to current growth rate, Vietnam's GDP is expected to surpass
2020, Vietnam experienced an average annual growth of 6.92% Singapore's by 2029, according to a report by the Development
(Goulard, 2020). Since Vietnam's exports are influenced by Bank of Singapore (Ha & Phuc, 2019).
COMMENTARY 3

Hence, the paper intends to determine the future of Vietnam's across 79 BRI countries, accounting for 42.5% of the country's total
labor-intensive industry due to the U.S.-China trade war. In order to global export potential and 26.9% of China's untapped potential
assess whether Vietnam can overtake China's position as the world's globally. The BRI nations Poland, Austria, and the Czech Republic
largest manufacturer, this paper examines UN Comtrade's export collectively account for 17.9% of the region's untapped potential, offer-
performance statistics of 10 specific labor-intensive industries serving ing a direct route into the EU (Cameron, Cuyvers, Fu, & Viviers, 2021).
the U.S. market between 2000 and 2020. Ma, Liu, and Ge (2017) assessed the competitiveness of China
and Vietnam based on Relative Trade Advantages (RTAs) covering
trade data from 2005 to 2014 and found that Vietnam was more
2 | LITERATURE REVIEW competitive in apparel, clothing, and footwear than China. The
U.S.-China trade war opened up market opportunities for other
Compared to capital-intensive goods, industries that require a high countries, especially Vietnam, because of its low labor costs and
labor-to-capital ratio require a lower ratio of labor to capital flexible production capacity (Itakura, 2020; Tien & Anh, 2019; Tien,
(Song, 2021). The demographic dividend has contributed substantially Vu, Dung, Doan, & Duc, 2019; Wang, 2020). In 2020, the U.S. exports
to the economic growth of a country (Peterson, 2017). Labor- to Vietnam were approximately US$10 billion, a slight decrease from
intensive industry exports grew at the fastest rate in the world, US$10.9 in 2019 and an increase of 270% from 2010. Electrical
making China the fastest-growing economy (Li, Lee, Liu, & machinery, cotton, aircraft, plastic, and machinery products dominated
Wang, 2019b; Li, Liu, & Qian, 2019a). However, the Lewis Turning the list of U.S. goods that were exported more. As a result of the
Point will occur between 2020 and 2025 in China (Cai, 2021; Rozelle, trade war between the United States and China, many U.S. companies
Xia, Friesen, Vanderjack, & Cohen, 2020; Wang, Fidrmuc, Luo, & are interested in Vietnam's potential as a trading partner. 61.54% of
Luo, 2020b; Wang, Viet, Ho, Nguyen, & Nguyen, 2020a). China may U.S. firms are considering shifting operations from China to Vietnam,
be entering a new phase of economic development due to structural- making Vietnam the most frequently cited alternative among all ASEAN
demographic changes and the household registration system (Ma, countries, according to the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and
Long, Tu, Zhang, & Zheng, 2020). China introduced its Made in China East Asia (ERIA) in 2020 (Pan et al., 2021).
2025 strategy in 2015 to upgrade technology comprehensively. Since the end of the Vietnam War, the United States has been
Manufacturing relocations were pushed by cost hikes and industrial the largest market for Vietnam's exports (Siracusa & Nguyen, 2019).
restructuring. There has been some debate regarding whether China's On the other hand, China has been the largest source of imports
labor-intensive industries will lose their competitiveness internation- from Vietnam (except in 2018, when China surpassed South Korea
ally and whether Vietnam will overtake China's lead in labor-intensive in imports) (Sohn, 2019). The United States and China dominate
industry exports (Bekkevold, 2020). Vietnam's export earnings and import bills as of December 2018.
As a result of Vietnam's high population growth and healthy With nearly US$34 billion in trade surplus with the United States in
population structure, the country has made significant progress in 2018, Vietnam has a significant trade surplus with the country
economics, and many researchers have compared Vietnam with China (Van & Trung, 2021).
in terms of the development of labor-intensive industries (Vo & Despite some researchers believing Vietnam's competitiveness is
Ha, 2021). There has been high competition between Vietnam and gradually increasing, many remain convinced that China's absolute
other countries for labor-intensive industries (Dao, 2022). Deshmukh advantage cannot be overtaken by Vietnam anytime soon. Hanson
(2021) and Nordhaug (2020) found Vietnam to be an effective com- (2021) found that with less than 8% of world exports in labor-
petitor in the garment industry, where China dominated the market. intensive industries, Vietnam would not be a likely successor to China.
In his study of six ASEAN countries plus China, Japan, and Korea, Moreover, Vietnam is heavily dependent on Chinese raw materials
Daly, Das, and Yeoh (2020) found that China and Vietnam are very and equipment for manufacturing, which is a problem for its exports
competitive internationally in terms of product quality thanks to their (Huong & Shah, 2021). In the labor-intensive textile and capital-
price advantage. intensive electronics industries, Vietnam and China are falling behind
Using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index (RCA) at differ- in technical development (Chiu, Lin, & Yang, 2019). Vietnamese
ent levels, such as region, country, industry segment, and industry researchers examined the international competitiveness of Vietnam's
segment link level. Yan, Qu, Ding, and Zhan (2021) discovered that garment and textile industries and concluded that Vietnam was less
China enjoys competitive advantages in areas with extraordinary competitive than China in the four components of the Generalized
industry capabilities due to the “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI). The Double Diamond Model analysis (factor conditions; demand
BRI sparked increasing trade, investment, and infrastructure links conditions; related and supporting industries; and company strategy,
between China and the associated countries (Fardella & Prodi, 2017). structure, and competitive environment) (Gautam & Lal, 2020; Guan,
In addition to helping China's trade recovery, the BRI also allows BRI Xu, Jiang, & Jiang, 2018; Vu & Pham, 2016).
countries access to China's direct investment, which will facilitate Several of the aforementioned papers compare competitiveness
their development and/or upgrade of their infrastructure and enables between China and Vietnam for a specific sector or a few industries
China to expand its exports (Li, Lee, et al., 2019b; Li, Liu, & with high labor intensity. The literature lacks situational analysis to
Qian, 2019a). China's realistic export opportunities (REOs) are spread compare the competitive advantage of Vietnam's performance in
4 COMMENTARY

labor-intensive industries due to the U.S.-China trade war. The exist- TABLE 1 10 labor-intensive industries
ing literature raised questions regarding export performance in Two-digit SITC codes and descriptions
particular.
65 Textile yarn and fabric
81 Sanitary, plumbing, heating, lighting fixtures and fittings
82 Furniture and parts
3 | S I T U A T I O N A L A N A L Y S E S OF
83 Travel goods, handbags, and similar containers
COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE OF VIETNAM
84 Articles of apparel and clothing accessories
L A B O R - I N T E N S I V E I N D U ST R Y
85 Footwear

3.1 | Comparison of Vietnam and China 785 Cycles, scooters, and invalid carriages
893 Articles of plastic materials
In 2008, Vietnam joined the WTO, and it went on to sign FTAs with 894 Baby carriages, toys, games, and sporting goods
the United States, European Union, United Kingdom, South Korea, 895 Office and stationary supplies
China, India, Australia, and others, as well as joining the ASEAN+1
Source: UN Trade Statistics (UNTS, 2021).
FTAs, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and
the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific
Partnership (CPTPP) (Nguyen, Nguyen, Nguyen, & Nguyen, 2020). As TABLE 2 The U.S. Tariffs on China and Vietnam from 2015
to 2019
a result of Vietnam's extensive FTA network, its export competitive-
ness improved, and FDI grew. China has signed a relatively small Simple average tariff
number of FTAs (Müller & Seabra, 2019). While China strives to sign
Year Vietnam China
FTAs with more countries, it is evident that with the prevalence of
2015 5.868 5.702
trade protection, it is not easy to expedite such negotiations.
2016 5.743 5.706
Additionally, Vietnam's population has increased by 25.72% over
2017 5.674 5.551
the last two decades, from 77.63 million in 2000 to 97.6 million
2018 5.839 5.785
(Baum, 2020). While China's population grew from 1.26 billion in
2000 to 1.41 billion in 2020, its growth rate was only 12.24% during 2019 5.794 5.774

the same period (Ren, 2020). In 2000, China's labor force participation Source: World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) (2021).
was 82.58%, but in 2019, it fell to 75.88%, while Vietnam's increased
from 81.9% to 83.09% (Nguyen, 2021). Furthermore, foreign direct
investment (FDI) by labor-intensive industries companies can still be products into labor-intensive, scale-intensive, and resource-intensive
attracted to Vietnam due to its low labor costs (Ta, Le, Nguyen, based on internationally accepted standard classifications. Using SITC
Phan, & Do, 2020). From 2010 to 2019, China's minimum monthly three-digit products, Lall (2000) categorized them into resource-
wage went from 1,120 Yuan (US$172) to 2,480 Yuan (US$382) and based, low-tech, medium-tech, and high-tech products. Using the
remained unchanged through 2021—an increase of 121.43% during world input–output table (WIOT), Dietzenbacher, Los, Stehrer,
the previous decade. Vietnam's minimum wage increased from US$58 Timmer, and De Vries (2013) classified textiles, apparel, and leather as
per month in 2010 to US$192 in 2020, but it remains half the labor-intensive, wood, straw, and plaiting materials as labor-intensive,
minimum wage in China. The minimum wage in China is far above the furniture and other manufacturing as labor-intensive, and machinery
monthly wage for manufacturing industries in urban areas. Production and equipment repair and installation as labor-intensive. According
costs have increased due to the continuous wage increase in China to Hanson (2017), SITC 65, SITC 81 to 85, SITC 785, and SITC
(Nguyen, Nguyen, Nguyen, & Tran, 2021). 893 to 895 are among 10 labor-intensive industries. n order to
China and the United States are engaged in a trade war that analyze China and Vietnam's export performance, this paper uses
Vietnam can benefit from Yu (2020). The trade war has given Hanson's 10 sectors as LISs, which can be obtained easily from the
Vietnam the most advantage of growing its economy. On the con- UN Comtrade database. Table 1 provides details.
trary, China's trade costs have risen significantly during the wake of The tariff rates for 10 labor-intensive industries used by
the U.S.-China trade war (Goulard, 2020). With anti-dumping duties, the United States and Vietnam before the U.S.-China trade war
the United States increased the average tariff on China from 3.1% to were similar (Hanson, 2021; Nugroho, Irawan, & Amaliah, 2021).
8.4% in January 2018. As a result of several additional tariffs China's competitiveness reduction resulted from the additional
(10%, 25%, 15%, and 7.5% for different categories of goods), by tariffs that increased export costs. A table listing all U.S. tariffs
the end of 2020, China's average tariff rate on U.S. exports to imposed on Vietnam and China from 2015 to 2019 can be found
China increased to 26.7%. By January 2021, the average tariff on in Table 2 (WITS, 2021). In 2018 and 2019, the U.S. asserted
U.S. goods to China had dropped 18.8% (Bown, 2021). additional tariffs against Chinese exports. As a result, China has
Despite differences in definition, labor-intensive products tend to suffered from standard and adverse competitive effects for the last
converge in general. Pavitt (1984) categorized technical levels of few years.
COMMENTARY 5

F I G U R E 2 China's and China's share of world Vietnam's share of world


Vietnam's labor-intensive industry
Linear (China's share of world) Linear (Vietnam's share of world)
exports in 10 sectors [Color figure
can be viewed at 45.00% y = 0.0128x - 25.395
R² = 0.8789
wileyonlinelibrary.com] 40.00%
35.00%
30.00%
25.00%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00% y = 0.0021x - 4.1185
R² = 0.9492
5.00%
0.00%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

products exported worldwide by China and Vietnam. The regression


analysis shows that Vietnam's labor-intensive industry is steadily
growing (Y = 0.0021x 4.1185 with R2 = 0.9492) whereas Chinese
labor-intensive industry is gradually declining (Y = 0.0128x 25.395
with R2 = 0.8789).

3.2 | Comparison of Vietnam and other countries

Because of the trade war between the United States and China, the
Southeast Asian nation's economy has grown by almost 18%
(Hanson, 2021). Vietnam, however, has benefited most from the
trade friction between the United States and China. Vietnam was
among the few winners early in the U.S.-China trade war. Vietnam's
labor-intensive industry exports depend heavily on the U.S. market.
Vietnam was the second biggest exporter of labor-intensive products
to the United States in 2017, after China (Bekkevold, 2020).
According to OEC (2021), Figure 3 indicates that in 2019, the top
exports of Vietnam are Broadcasting Equipment ($42.3B), Telephones
($18.2B), Integrated Circuits ($15.5B), Textile Footwear ($10.6B), and
Leather Footwear ($6.43B), exporting mostly to United States
($63.7B), China ($40.3B), Japan ($21.2B), South Korea ($20.3B), and
Germany ($8.22B).
In Asia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia have witnessed sig-
nificant increases in their global shares of labor-intensive exports
in the last few years, but others have not (Anwar, 2021; Neak &
Sok, 2021). Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Myanmar,
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam exported 13.3% of labor-intensive
F I G U R E 3 Destination of Vietnam's Export in 2019. Source: OEC manufactured goods in 2018, compared to 7.2% in 2001 and 3.4% in
[Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
1984 (Hanson, 2021). The group includes the four large low-income
economies in South Asia that are responsible for most of the region's
economic output and the lower-income economies of Southeast Asia.
By 2019, China's labor-intensive goods manufacturing proportion is Despite its size, India has only managed to increase its global
expected to drop to 22.86% from 36.38% in 2000. Vietnamese exports export share by more than half a percentage point since 2000
reached their highest point in 2000, reaching 37.32% in 2003, then sta- (Misra & Choudhry, 2020); Pakistan's share has remained constant for
bilized at around 30%, declining to 29.26% in 2019 (Hanson, 2021). the last 35 years (Keeryo, Mumtaz, & Lakhan, 2020); and Indonesia's
Figure 2 shows the trend in the shares of labor-intensive industry share has fallen since 2000 (Wangke, 2020). In contrast, Myanmar
6 COMMENTARY

F I G U R E 4 Share of world exports in labor-intensive products ((a) selected Asian countries; (b). selected other countries). Source: Hanson
[Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

350 F I G U R E 5 The trends in


y = 7.6145x - 15063 U.S. imports from 10 labor-
300
R² = 0.9213 intensive industry in China,
250
y = 4.8929x - 9722.9 Vietnam, and the world (in US$
200 billions) [Color figure can be
R² = 0.8166
150 viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
100
y = 1.7347x - 3473.1
50 R² = 0.9453
0
-50 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

China Vietnam World


Linear (China) Linear (Vietnam) Linear (World)

and Sri Lanka are relatively small players on the global stage Figure 5 demonstrates the trend in the shares of labor-intensive
(Wijayasiri & Wijesinha, 2021). Having relatively low average incomes industry products exported by China, Vietnam, and the world. The regres-
indicates that these countries have relatively large supplies of unedu- sion analysis displays that Vietnam labor-intensive industry is steadily
cated labor, contributing to their comparative advantage in labor- growing (Y = 1.7347x 3,473.1 with R2 = 0.9453) whereas the labor-
intensive production. Figure 4 indicates that based on the top intensive industry of China (Y = 4.8929x 9,722.9 with R2 = 0.8166)
10 labor-intensive sectors, Vietnam is the top exporting country and the world are gradually declining (Y = 7.6145x 15,063 with
among 8 Asian countries that exported these goods among the top R = 0.9213).
2

14 emerging economies in 2018, shown together with their relative


comparative advantage.
The U.S.-China trade war resulted in a shift in production, 4 | CONC LU SION
according to Goulard (2020). As illustrated in Figure 5, China's
labor-intensive industry exports to the United States have almost This paper focuses on the competitiveness effect as the most crucial
matched the global export trend, except that the U.S.-China trade reason for Vietnam's high export performance and why Vietnam could
war led to a sharp decline in exports. Nevertheless, Vietnam's replace China in some of the 10 sectors studied. China's competitive-
exports to the United States from labor-intensive industries are ness was negatively affected for the final two periods, while
steadily growing. Vietnam gains the most from trade diversion, Vietnam's competitive advantage increased. In all periods except
which gains 7.9% of its GDP since trade diversion consists primar- 2015–2020, China had a more extensive scale effect than Vietnam.
ily of additional U.S. imports. Chile, Malaysia, and Argentina are Changing demand for imports from the United States is a significant
the following three top importers. Their trade diversion comes factor contributing to export fluctuations between the two countries,
mainly from China. The U.S. import substitution benefitted third- in which growth effects dominate over product structure effects.
party countries more than the China import substitution (Menon & Since the United States has continued to fight anti-China foreign pol-
Melendez, 2021). icy, China's exports to the United States have declined since the
COMMENTARY 7

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Sohn, Y. (2019). South Korea under the United States–China rivalry: City University of Economics and Finance (UEF). He is a visiting
Dynamics of the economic-security nexus in trade policymaking. The
lecturer at University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City (UEH). His
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gating foreign direct investment attractive factors of Korean direct
tion Management, and Supply Chain Management. He has pub-
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Business, 7(6), 117–125. lished several research papers in the prestigious journals such as
Thanh, S. D., Canh, N. P., & Doytch, N. (2020). Asymmetric effects of US Cogent Business & Management, Transnational Corporations Review,
monetary policy on the US bilateral trade deficit with China: A Markov International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management, Corporate
switching ARDL model approach. The Journal of Economic Asymmetries,
Governance, Benchmarking: An International Journal, International
22, e00168.
COMMENTARY 9

Journal of Emerging Markets, Management Decision, International Jakhongir Shaturaev is working as a Coordinator of the International
Journal of Logistics Management, Economic Analysis & Policy, Joint Degree Program and Assistant Professor at Tashkent State Uni-
Resources Policy, Journal of Cleaner Production. versity of Economics. He focuses on Social Science, Project
Management, Digital Economics, and Finance as his research interests.
Dr. Tina A. Coffelt (Ph.D. University of Missouri-Columbia) is an
associate professor in the Department of English at Iowa State
University. She specializes in business and interpersonal commu-
nication with research appearing in Business and Professional
How to cite this article: Dhar, B. K., Tiep Le, T., Coffelt, T. A.,
Communication Quarterly, Communication Studies, and Commu-
& Shaturaev, J. (2022). U.S.-China trade war and competitive
nication Yearbook, among others. She was a Fulbright Scholar to
advantage of Vietnam. Thunderbird International Business
Uzbekistan in 2021.
Review, 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1002/tie.22325

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