Eicher Motors Ltd.

Template
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data) 15M
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Mar-16
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2016A
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Revenue & Cost Metrics
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data)
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A

Revenue Metrics
2W (Royal Enfield)
Net Revenue - 2W (net excise duty, in Cr.) 671 1,049 1,702
Sales Volume - 2W (Nos.) 74,626 113,432 178,121
Average Price - 2W, in thousands 90.0 92.5 95.6
Price Growth Rate, 2W 2.8% 3.3%
Production Capacity (Nos.) 210,000
Utilization % 85%

CV (Commercial Vehicles)
Net Revenue - CV (net excise duty, in Cr.) 5016 5348 5130
Commercial Vehicles (Nos.) 49,042 48,831 41,251
Average Price - CV, in lakhs 102.3 109.5 124.4
Price Growth Rate, CV 7.1% 13.5%
CV Growth % -0.4% -15.5%

EPPL (Polaries)
No. of Dealers
Growth %
Units of Multix
Unit sold per Dealer
Price (INR Lakhs)
price inflation %
Other Income as a % of revenue

Cost Metrics
2W (Royal Enfield)
Cost of raw materials consumed 697 1,079
Purchases of stock-in-trade - 13
Change in inventories of finished goods, work-in-progress and stock-in- (21) (32)
Employee benefits expenses 79 111
COGS 755 1,171
COGS as % of revenues 72.0% 68.8%
Other expenses 148.9 218.0
(As % of revenues)
Depreciation and amortisation expenses 17.15 30.41
Finance costs 0.26 0.27
Other income
(As % of revenues)
Tax expense

CV (Commercial Vehicles)
Cost of raw materials consumed 3,314 2,875
Purchases of stock-in-trade 620 712
Change in inventories of finished goods, work-in-progress and stock-in-tr (20) 14
Employee benefits expenses 378 422
COGS 4,292 4,023
COGS as % of revenues 80.3% 78.4%
Other expenses 655.8 709.7
(As % of revenues)
Depreciation and amortisation expenses 65.02 99.63
Finance costs 3.53 7.59
Other income
(As % of revenues)
Tax expense

EPPL (Polaries)
Raw material as a % of Revenue
Employee benefits expenses growth %
Other Expense growth %
 15M

Dec-14 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22

2014A 2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

3,031 6,173 7,033 8,232 9,429 10,670 13,861 15,766

302,592 600,944 666,135 742,500 810,000 873,000 1,080,000 1,170,000
100.2 102.7 105.6 110.9 116.4 122.2 128.3 134.8
4.8% 2.5% 2.8% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
360,000 510,000 675,000 825,000 900,000 970,000 1,200,000 1,300,000
84% 118% 99% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90%

5,758 9,309.48 8,549 10,772 13,347 16,256 19,459 22,884

40,783 63,045 58,604 70,325 82,983 96,261 109,737 122,906
141.2 147.7 145.9 153.2 160.8 168.9 177.3 186.2
13.5% 4.6% -1.2% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%
-1.1% 54.6% -7.0% 20% 18% 16% 14% 12%

30 74 120 156 187 206 227

147% 62% 30% 20% 10% 10%
921 1640 2,400 2,808 2,995 3,707 4,530
31 22 20 18 16 18 20
2.02 2.28 2.50 2.70 2.86 2.98 3.10
12.5% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4%
17% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 4%

1,819 3,423 3,616

32 74 108
(43) (62) (20)
161 350 402
1,969 3,785 4,107 4,560 4,940 5,270 6,569 7,156
64.9% 61.3% 58.4% 55.4% 52.4% 49.4% 47.4% 45.4%
329.1 698.5 752.6 823.2 942.9 1067.0 1386.1 1576.6
11.3% 10.7% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0%
50.16 136.6 153.81
 1.67 2.12 3.56
178.09 227.33 251.76 288.38 326.35 423.92 482.21
2.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
538.88 720.30

3,135 5,246 4,851

915 1,767 1,503
(42) (217) 50
497 717 651
4,506 7,512 7,055 8,670 10,743 13,085 15,662 18,419
78.3% 80.7% 82.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5% 80.5%
869.4 1,029.4 819.5 1,111.8 1,377.6 1,677.9 2,008.4 2,361.9
11.1% 9.6% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3% 10.3%
169.66 300.03 269.7
8.09 10.67 18.59
42.39 57.21 60.57 75.04 91.40 109.41 128.66
0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
113.7 95.62

90% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40%

10% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
19% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6%
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Income Statement (RE)
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data)
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A

Revenue from operations (net of excise duty)

Other income
Cost of raw materials consumed
Purchases of stock-in-trade
Change in inventories of finished goods, work-in-progress and stock-in-trade
Employee benefits expenses
Total COGS
Gross Profit
Other expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation and amortisation expenses
EBIT
Finance costs
Share of profit/(loss) of joint ventures
EBT
Tax expense
(As % of EBT)
Net Profit
- Non controlling interests
- Profit for common shareholders

Wt. Ave Basic Shares Outstanding

Wt. Ave Dilutes Shares Outstanding

Basic EPS
Diluted EPS

Dividends
DPS
Total dividends paid
 15M

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22

2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

6,173.5 7,033.4 8,231.6 9,429.0 10,670.5 13,860.6 15,766.4

178.1 227.3 251.8 288.4 326.4 423.9 482.2
3,423.2 3,615.7
74.0 108.4
-62.1 -19.6
350.2 402.4
3,785.4 4,106.8 4,559.6 4,939.9 5,270.2 6,568.6 7,156.5
2,566.2 3,153.9 3,923.8 4,777.4 5,726.6 7,715.9 9,092.1
698.5 752.6 823.2 942.9 1,067.0 1,386.1 1,576.6
1,867.7 2,401.3 3,100.7 3,834.5 4,659.5 6,329.8 7,515.5
136.6 153.8 248.7 299.7 356.3 418.2 504.1
1,731.1 2,247.5 2,851.9 3,534.9 4,303.3 5,911.6 7,011.4
2.12 3.56 3.56 3.56 3.56 3.56 3.56
147.94 143.47 272.11 370.33 477.87 595.50 720.61
1,876.9 2,387.4 2,576.3 3,161.0 3,821.9 5,312.6 6,287.3
538.88 720.30 758 931 1,125 1,564 1,851
28.7% 30.2% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4% 29.4%
1,338.0 1,667.1 1,817.8 2,230.3 2,696.7 3,748.5 4,436.2
-0.4 -2.4
1,337.7 1,664.7 1,817.8 2,230.3 2,696.7 3,748.5 4,436.2

2.71370 2.71900 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72 2.72

2.72368 2.72650 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73 2.73

493.1 613.1 668.6 820.3 991.8 1,378.6 1,631.6

491.3 611.4 666.7 818.0 989.1 1,374.8 1,627.1

100 100 100 100 100 100

271.6 271.9 271.9 271.9 271.9 271.9
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Income Statement (CV)
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data)
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A

Revenue from operations (net of excise duty)

Other income
Cost of raw materials consumed
Purchases of stock-in-trade
Change in inventories of finished goods, work-in-progress and stock-in-trade
Employee benefits expenses
Total COGS
Gross Profit
Other expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation and amortisation expenses
EBIT
Finance costs
EBT
Tax expense
(As % of EBT)
Net Profit 54.40%
 15M

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22

2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

9,309.5 8,549.4 10,772.2 13,346.8 16,256.4 19,458.9 22,883.7

42.4 57.2 60.6 75.0 91.4 109.4 128.7
5,246.4 4,850.5
1,766.6 1,502.7
-217.4 50.4
716.9 651.3
7,512.5 7,054.9 8,670.5 10,742.7 13,084.6 15,662.3 18,418.8
1,839.4 1,551.7 2,162.3 2,679.1 3,263.2 3,906.1 4,593.5
1,029.4 819.5 1,111.8 1,377.6 1,677.9 2,008.4 2,361.9
810.0 732.2 1,050.5 1,301.6 1,585.3 1,897.6 2,231.6
300.0 269.7 313.7 337.7 373.2 420.8 480.6
510.0 462.5 736.8 963.9 1,212.1 1,476.9 1,751.0
10.7 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.6
499.3 443.9 718.2 945.3 1,193.5 1,458.3 1,732.4
113.7 95.6 159.1 209.4 264.4 323.1 383.8
22.8% 21.5% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2% 22.2%
385.6 348.3 559.1 735.9 929.1 1,135.2 1,348.6
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Template
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data)
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A

Revenue from operations (net of excise duty)

Other income
Total Revenues
Cost of raw materials consumed
Purchases of stock-in-trade
Change in inventories of finished goods, work-in-progress and stock-in-trade
Employee benefits expenses
Total COGS
Gross Profit
Other expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation and amortisation expenses
EBIT
Finance costs
EBT
Tax expense (at 30%)
(As % of EBT)
Net Profit
EML's share of profits 50%
 15M

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22

2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

18.6 37.3 60.1 75.9 85.8 110.4 140.4

3.2 4.5 6.0 6.1 5.1 4.4 5.6
21.8 41.8 66.1 82.0 91.0 114.9 146.0
16.7 33.6 52.9 57.4 54.6 57.4 58.4

25.7 28.2 28.8 29.4 30.0 30.6 31.2

42.4 61.8 81.7 86.8 84.6 88.0 89.6
(20.6) (20.0) (15.6) (4.8) 6.4 26.8 56.4
37.3 44.5 49.0 53.8 58.2 62.8 66.6
(57.8) (64.5) (64.5) (58.6) (51.7) (36.0) (10.2)
23.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0
(80.8) (91.5) (91.5) (85.6) (78.7) (63.0) (37.2)
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
(80.83) (91.5) (91.5) (85.6) (78.7) (63.0) (37.2)
0.19 0.35 (27.5) (25.7) (23.6) (18.9) (11.2)

(81.0) (91.89) (64.1) (60.0) (55.1) (44.1) (26.0)

Eicher Motors Ltd.
Asset Schedule
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data) 2015
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A

Royal Enfield
Property, plant and equipment 395.9
Capital work-in-progress 42.7
Investment property 5.3
Intangible assets 11.9
Intangible assets under development 16.7
Total net fixed assets 472.5

Opening balance
Additions (Capex)
Depreciation
Closing 472.5

Capex as % of revenue
Depreciation as % of Opening & Additions

Commercial Vehicles
Property, plant and equipment 1,440.8
Capital work-in-progress 124.4
Intangible assets 315.6
Intangible assets under development 142.5
Total net fixed assets 2,023.4

Opening balance
Additions (Capex)
Depreciation
Closing 2,023.4

Capex as % of revenue
Depreciation as % of Opening & Additions

Investment Schedule

Min Req cash

Cash Available for Investments
Opening Balance of Investments
Closing Balance of Investments
 15M

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22

2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

760.6 835.1
33.3 265.0
4.6 4.2
29.0 33.4
61.2 108.8
888.6 1,246.6

472.5 888.6 1,246.6 1,797.8 2,166.1 2,575.0 3,022.6

552.7 511.7 800 668.0 765.1 865.9 1,124.7
136.6 153.8 248.7 299.7 356.3 418.2 504.1
888.6 1,246.6 1797.82 2166.09 2574.96 3022.63 3643.30

9.0% 7.3% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1% 8.1%

13% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12% 12%

1,537.2 1,526.3
82.4 175.9
298.4 430.5
237.9 191.3
2,155.8 2,323.9

2,023.4 2,155.8 2,323.9 2,460.3 2,648.6 2,927.2 3,300.3

432.42 437.89 450 526.05 651.78 793.87 950.26
300.0 269.7 313.7 337.7 373.2 420.8 480.6
2,155.8 2,323.9 2,460.3 2,648.6 2,927.2 3,300.3 3,769.9

4.6% 5.1% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9% 4.9%

12% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11%

20 20 20 20 20
1,034.38 1,615.25 2,034.01 3,130.88 3,581.42
 4103.52 5137.9039 6753.1547 8787.164 11918.043
4103.52 5,137.90 6,753.15 8,787.16 11,918.04 15,499.46
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Balance Sheet
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data) 2015
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A

ASSETS
Non-current assets
Net Fixed assets 473

Investments 1,560.2
Other financial assets 62
Income tax assets (net) 13.61
Other non-current assets 183.83
Total non-current assets 2,292

Current assets
Inventories 203.96
Investments 998.6
Trade receivables 10.7
Cash and cash equivalents 17.12
Bank Balance other than cash 3.77
Loans 0
Other financial assets 3.44
Other current assets 73.0
Total current assets 1,311
Total assets 3,603

Equity and Liablities

Equity
Equity share capital 27.1
Other equity 2,728.5
Total equity 2,755.6

Liabilities
Non-current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Other financial liabilities 4.5
Provisions 13.8
Deferred tax liabilities (net) 22.0
Other non-current liabilities 0.0
Total non-current liabilities 40.3
Current liabilities
Financial liabilities
Borrowings 0
Trade payables 482.2
Other financial liabilities 33.59
Provisions 15.56
Income tax liabilities (net) 0
Other current liabilities 275.43
Total current liabilities 806.8
Total liabilities 847.1
Total equity and liabilities 3603

Inventory Days
Receivable days

Other current assets as % of revenues

Provisions as % of expenses
Payable Days
Other current liabilities as % of expenses
 15M

Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22

2016A 2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

889 1,247 1,798 2,166 2,575 3,023 3,643

2,800.8 4,103.5 5,137.9 6,753.2 8,787.2 11,918.0 15,499.5

52.57 27.56 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6
7.57 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
140.66 232.09 232.1 232.1 232.1 232.1 232.1
3,890 5,610 7,195 9,179 11,622 15,200 19,402

308.39 335.9 374.8 406.0 433.2 539.9 588.2

582.9 883.61 883.6 883.6 883.6 883.6 883.6
32.64 50.04 68 77 88 114 130
13.32 17.24 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
35.85 7.82 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8
6.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
5.64 8.83 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8 8.8
63.3 77.2 82.3 94.3 106.7 138.6 157.7
1,049 1,381 1,445 1,498 1,548 1,713 1,796
4,939 6,991 8,641 10,677 13,170 16,913 21,198

27.16 27.21 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2

3,625.9 5,317.9 6,863.7 8,822.2 11,247.0 14,723.6 18,887.9
3,653.1 5,345.1 6,891.0 8,849.4 11,274.2 14,750.8 18,915.1

5.9 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.2

29.7 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0 36.0
35.9 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8 77.8
9.6 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2
80.9 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1 144.1
 22.57 44.41 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.4 44.4
723.2 832.7 936.9 1,015.0 1,082.9 1,349.7 1,470.5
82.61 142.4 142.4 142.4 142.4 142.4 142.4
26.47 32.63 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6 32.6
0 19.35 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4
350.11 429.92 429.9 429.9 429.9 429.9 429.9
1205.0 1501.5 1605.6 1683.8 1751.6 2018.4 2139.2
1285.9 1645.6 1749.7 1827.9 1895.8 2162.6 2283.4
4939 6991 8641 10677 13170 16913 21198

29.7 29.9 30 30 30 30 30
1.9 2.6 3.0 3 3 3 3

1.0% 1.1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

69.7 74.0 75 75 75 75 75
Eicher Motors Ltd.
Cash flow Statement
(All Data in INR Crores, except per share price data) 15M
(Red=Assumption, Blue=Actual, Black=Calculation)
Date Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Mar-16
Year 2011A 2012A 2013A 2014A 2016A

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES

Profit after tax 1,338.0
Adjustments for:
Share of (profit)/loss of joint ventures -147.9
Current tax 524.7
Deferred tax charge 14.2
Depreciation and amortisation expenses 136.6
Gain on disposal of property, plant and equipment -0.1
Property, plant and equipment discarded 1.4
Dividend on unquoted non-trade current investments -1.8
Rent income -3.4
Loss on sale of property, plant and equipment 0.1
Net gain on financial instruments at fair value through profit or loss -163.0
Interest income recognised in profit or loss -4.7
Expenses recognised in respect of equity-settled share-based payments 23.3
Finance costs recognised in profit or loss 2.12
Remeasurement of defined benefit obligation -0.71
Exchange difference on conversion -0.09
Operating profit before changes in working capital 1,718.7
Changes in working capital:
Adjustments for (increase) / decrease in non-current assets:
Other financial assets -2.9
Other non-current assets -0.61
Adjustments for (increase) / decrease in current assets:
Inventories -104.4
Trade receivables -21.9
Loans -6.8
Other financial assets -1.83
Other current assets 9.7
Adjustments for increase / (decrease) in non-current liabilities:
Other financial liabilities 1.35
Provisions 15.85
Other non-current liabilities 9.55
Adjustments for increase / (decrease) in current liabilities:
Trade payables 241.0
Other financial liabilities 38.46
Provisions 10.91
Other current liabilities 74.68
Cash generated from operating activities 1,981.73
Direct taxes paid -518.65
Net cash flow from operating activities 1,463.08
CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Payment for property, plant and equipment -510.0
Proceeds from disposal of property, plant and equipment 0.6
Investment in a joint venture company -108.8
Net investment in unquoted current investments 422.3
Proceeds from unquoted non-current investments 100.0
Investment in non-current investments -1084.1
Profit on sale of unquoted current investments 58.3
Dividend on long-term unquoted from joint venture company 105.4
Dividend on unquoted current investments 1.8
Proceeds from investment in non-current fixed deposit under lien (net) 5.3
Rent received 3.3
Interest received 4.3
Net cash flow from investing activities -1001.4
CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Increase/ (decrease) in short-term borrowings (net) 0
Interest paid -2.12
Proceeds from issue of equity share capital under ESOP Scheme (including security premium) 4.81
Dividend paid -407.13
Tax on dividend paid -61.08
Net cash flow from financing activities -465.52
Net Increase/(decrease) in cash and cash equivalents (A)+(B)+(C) -3.84
Cash and cash equivalents at the beginning of the year/period 17.12
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the year/period 13.28
Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22
2017A 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E

1,667.1 1,817.8 2,230.3 2,696.7 3,748.5 4,436.2

-143.5 -272.1 -370.3 -477.9 -595.5 -720.6

678.6 758.5 930.6 1,125.2 1,564.1 1,851.0
41.7
153.8 248.7 299.7 356.3 418.2 504.1
-0.1
0.1
0.0
-2.8
0.4
-219.7
-4.0
20.5
3.56 3.56 3.56 3.56 3.56 3.56
-0.12
0.65
2,196.1 2,556.4 3,093.9 3,703.8 5,138.8 6,074.3

-6.39
2.91

-27.5 -38.9 -31.3 -27.1 -106.7 -48.3

-17.4 -17.6 -9.8 -10.2 -26.2 -15.7
6.46
-2.1
-13.9 -5.2 -12.0 -12.4 -31.9 -19.1

1.29
6.34
13.65

109.5 104.2 78.2 67.9 266.8 120.8

5.59
6.16
79.81
2,360.56 2,599.0 3,119.0 3,721.9 5,240.8 6,112.0
-651.64 -758.5 -930.6 -1,125.2 -1,564.1 -1,851.0
1,708.92 1,840.5 2,188.3 2,596.7 3,676.7 4,261.0

-547.7 -800.0 -668.0 -765.1 -865.9 -1124.7

0.7
-38.7
-242.2
417.3 272.1 370.3 477.9 595.5 720.6
-1474.0 -1034.4 -1615.3 -2034.0 -3130.9 -3581.4
102.5
0.0
0.0
24.5
2.8
2.9
-1751.9 -1562.3 -1912.9 -2321.3 -3401.2 -3985.5

44.41
-3.24 -3.56 -3.56 -3.56 -3.56 -3.56
5.74
0 -271.9 -271.9 -271.9 -271.9 -271.9
0
46.91 -275.46 -275.46 -275.46 -275.46 -275.46
3.96 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13.28 17.2 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
17.24 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0
 Calculations of Net working Capital
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Current assets 1,381 1,445 1,498 1,548 1,713 1,796
Current Liabilities 1,646 1,750 1,828 1,896 2,163 2,283
Cash and cash equivalents 25 28 28 28 28 28
NWC -290 -332 -357 -375 -477 -515
Change in NWC -43 -25 -18 -102 -38

1 2 3 4
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
PAT 1,665 1,818 2,230 2,697 3,748 4,436
Depreciation 154 249 300 356 418 504
Less: Change in NWC -43 -25 -18 -102 -38
Less: Capital expenditure 800 668 765 866 1,125
FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY 1,309 1,887 2,306 3,403 3,853
Discount Factor 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.7
DISCOUNTED CASH FLOWS 1,309 1,745 1,972 2,692 2,819
Risk free rate 5.50%
Beta 0.75
Market Return 9%
Cost of equity 8.1%
Terminal Growth Rate 3%
Last yrs. FCF 3,853
WACC 8.1%
TV 77,442
Discounted TV 56,660
PV of Cash Flows 10,538
Intrinsic value of the firm (EV) 67,198
Total level of Debt -222.82
Cash and Investments 5012.19
Equity Value 71,987
Target Price 26,475.52
 Sales
CMP Mcap EV 2018 2019
Hero Motor Corp. 3752 74,930 55,763 34,681 38,602
TVS Motors 767.7 36,418 34,705 14,977 18,661
Bajaj Autos 3280 95,178 64,463 26,070 29,801
Eicher Motors 8,232 9,429

EV/Sales 2018 2019 EV

Hero Motor Corp. 1.61 1.44 2018 17,555
TVS Motors 2.32 1.86 2019 17,184
Bajaj Autos 2.47 2.16
Average 2.13 1.82

EV/EBITDA 2018 2019 EV

Hero Motor Corp. 10.40 9.54 2018 54,365
TVS Motors 29.90 18.34 2019 48,683
Bajaj Autos 12.30 10.21
Average 17.53 12.70

P/E 2018 2019 Share Price

Hero Motor Corp. 19.70 18.80 2018 20,481
TVS Motors 51.52 29.76 2019 18,050
Bajaj Autos 20.93 17.64
Average 30.72 22.07
 EBITDA EPS
2018 2019 2018 2019
5,362 5,844 190.4 199.6
1,161 1,892 14.9 25.8
5,241 6,316 156.7 185.9
3,101 3,835 666.7 818.0

Debt Cash & Eq. Eq. Value Price Target

-222.82 5012.19 22,344 8,217.70
-222.82 5012.19 21,973 8,081.44

Debt Cash & Eq. Eq. Value Share Price

-222.82 5012.19 59,154 21,755.98
-222.82 5012.19 53,473 19,666.25