Obtaining Samples of Drivers for Surveys

Author(s): D. Sheppard
Source: Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics), Vol. 21, No. 2 (1972)
, pp. 131-135
Published by: Wiley for the Royal Statistical Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2346484
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 Obtaining
SamplesofDriversforSurveys
By D. SHEPPARD

Transport
and Road ResearchLaboratory,
Crowthorne,
Berkshire

SUMMARY
The Transportand Road ResearchLaboratoryis becomingincreasingly
involvedin studiesamongdriversand it is important to be surethatthose
whoare includedarerepresentative. Samplesof driversofall kindsmaybe
required,or of specificgroupsand thispaperdiscussessomeproblemsof
Samplingwillusuallybe fromdriving
definition. licencerecordsorfromthe
roll,usedas a basisforselecting
electoral households.Therelative advantages
of varioussampling framesare discussed,withsomeexamples.

Keywords: SAMPLING; DEFINITION OF POPULATION; SAMPLING FRAMES; DRIVERS;

ELECTORAL ROLL

1. INTRODUCTION
ALTHOUGH the Transportand Road Research Laboratoryhas been involvedin a
numberof studiesamongdriverssinceitsinception,therehas beenmuchmoreofthis
kindofworkin recentyears. Manyaspectsofdrivingcan be investigated byobtaining
data fromdriversand, ifsuchenquiriesare to be reallyvaluable,it is important
to be
surethatthedriversbeingstudiedare representative ofparticulargroupsofdriversor,
ifthisis required,representative of driversas a whole.
Any enquirieswhichaim to obtaindata on drivers'opinions,attitudesor know-
ledge mustdependon puttingquestionsto drivers;enquirieswhichdeal withdriver
behaviourusuallyinvolveobservationsor questionsput to drivers;assessingvisual
acuity,intelligenceor abilityto judge speed requiresgroupsof driversto be tested
undercontrolledconditions,and even wherethe main purposeof the enquiryis to
obtain data about accidentsthat drivershave had, recordson this tend to be so
inaccessibleand unsatisfactory that it may well be betterto obtain such data by
interviewing thedriverconcerned.
An adequate samplewill be essentialforenquiriesof thisnature,thoughit will
be obvious thatthisin itselfis not enoughto guaranteea successfulenquiry. High
refusalrates, reticenceor deliberatelymisleadingrepliesto questions,or a poor
memory,can all lead to the data beingless worthwhilethan one would like.

2. DEFINING THE POPULATION

As withany samplingproblems,a decisionhas to be made about thepopulation
to be sampled. Firstthoughtswhen beginningan enquiryare oftenvague in this
respect,and initialpropositionsmay ask fora sample of good drivers,a sample of
learnerdrivers,or perhapsa sample of motor-cyclists. Refiningthisdefinition
will
depend on a numberof factors:examplesare the state of knowledgeabout the
incidenceof various importantattributes,the cost of refining
the sample and the
131

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132 APPLIED STATISTICS

facilitiesavailable for obtainingdata fromdrivers.Thus if one wishedto obtain a

sampleof driverswho had deliberately crashedinto anothervehicle,as Parry(1968)
has showncan happen,it is verydifficult to estimatewhatproportionof driversthis
would be. Likewiseit would be an expensivetechniqueif one had no optionbut to
call at a sampleof householdsin orderto obtaina randomsampleof motor-cyclists,
sincemotor-cyclists tendto be quite rare. If drivershave to be takenovera specific
test route,therewill be littlepoint in drawingsamples of people who live a long
distanceaway,foritis unlikelythattheywouldbe persuadedto comealong(Quenault,
1967).
Perhapsthe two most commonrequirements are for a sample of driversof all
kinds,or fora sample of "principalpetrolbuyers". The principalpetrolbuyeris a
usefulconceptforcommercialsurveys,wherethe aim is to obtaindetailsabout the
personwho buysthingsforthe car. Surveyscarriedout withinthe SafetyDivision
at theTransportand Road ResearchLaboratorywouldbe morelikelyto be concerned
withdriversof all kinds. Even a broad categorizationof thiskindis likelyto need
somerefining: thusin Transportand Road ResearchLaboratoryenquiriesthosewho
have not drivenfor 12 monthswould commonlybe omitted.At the Transportand
Road ResearchLaboratory,specificenquiriesmay have to do withyoungdrivers,
learnerdrivers,motor-cyclists, thoselivingwithinan area wherenewtraffic signshave
been introducedon a largescale,driverswho have committed offences,
traffic and so
on. Each of thesesub-groupsmay requirefurther refinement in that,for example,
theyhaveto be currently haveto livewithina specified
driving, limitedarea,and so on.

3. SAMPLING FRAMES AVAILABLE

Althoughit mightappear somethingof a bluntinstrument forthispurpose,the
electoralroll has frequentlybeen used by bothgovernment and commercialagencies
for selectingsamplesof Britishdrivers.Its advantagesare thatit is held centrally;
thatit is broughtup-to-dateat yearlyintervals;thatit allows stratification by area,
by sex and (ratherineffectively now) by social class (Grayet al., 1951) and thatit can
be used to obtainindirectly a sampleof households.t
A disadvantagewhichapplied untilrecently was thatpeople under20 yearswere
not listed. If driversunder20 were required,it was therefore necessaryto use the
electoralroll as a samplingframeforhouseholds. This made it necessaryto use an
interviewer to identifythehousehold,and thisis expensive.
With youngerpeople able to vote, the electoralroll is now appropriateas a
samplingframefordriversof all motorvehiclesotherthan motor-cycles:thoughit
stillhas the disadvantagethatthe listis incompletein respectof thosewho will be
able to votenextyear(i.e. 17-year-olds),and at presentthenewyoungervoters(18-20)
tendnotto be listed(as manyas one-third are notlistedin someareas). If theelectoral
roll is used as a basis for selectinghouseholdsin order to compensatefor these
deficiencies,thereis stillthe disadvantagethatany householdsof whichno member
is a Britishcitizenwill be automaticallyexcluded. If used forselectingindividuals,
thosewho are not Britishcitizenswillagain be excluded.
Withonlytwo of fiveadultsable to drive,- usingthe electoralroll is a somewhat
wastefultechniquefor selectingdrivers. Alternativesamplingframeswhich are
t As statedby P. G. Grayin his paper "More about theelectoralregister"whichwas read
at a Conference 1959,heldundertheauspicesof
on StatisticalMethodsin Social Investigation,
theGeneralApplicationsSectionof theRoyal StatisticalSociety.
SinceDecember1971,motor-cycle licencescan no longerbe obtainedbypeopleunder17.

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 OBTAINING SAMPLES OF DRIVERS FOR SURVEYS 133
availablefor government enquiriesare the drivingand vehiclelicencerecords.
Drivinglicencesareobviously appropriate forobtaining a sampleofdrivers butthey
havesomedisadvantages. A minordisadvantage is thattherearepeoplewhodrive
without a licence(thetotalof offences and allegedoffences ofthiskindwas 59,960
in Englandand Walesin 1967,as compared witha totalofsomesixteen and a half
millionpeoplewho are licensedto drive).At present, Local Authorities and post
officesissuelicencesand copiesof theseas wellas recordsrelating to thelicences
issuedarekeptat thelocalauthority offices.Thusthereis at present no singlesource
fromwhichsuchaddresses can be drawnforthecountry as a whole.However, the
setting-up ofa central licensingauthority at Swanseawillimprove thissituation.
Local authorities keepa copyofeachdriving thesein date
licenceissued,filing
orderso thatrenewal noticescan be sentoutat theappropriate time.Duplicatesof
provisional licences arekeptseparately sincetheseareonlyvalidfor4 months.Each
authority alsokeepsa cardindexofdrivers' names,inalphabetical order,though these
tendto be partlyout-of-date in thesensethatpeopleno longerlicensedto driveare
stillincluded.As thedatafora wholecounty arenormally kepttogether, stratification
intosmaller unitsis laborious,andinvolves a secondary selectionprocess(i.e.drawing
a samplefourtimesthenumber ofdrivers required ifonlyone-quarter ofthedriving
population inthecounty liveswithin theareawhichis ofinterest). Sincea fulllicence
nowlastsforthreeyears,andwithan estimated 10percentofthepopulation moving
eachyear,thechancesarehighthatthedriver concerned willno longerbe livingat
theaddressgivenon theapplication form.t
Thedriving licencerecords havea number ofspecialadvantages.Thedistinction
between provisional andfulllicencesis a usefulindication ofthedrivers' experience,
thoughithasto be remembered thatsomedrivers do notsurrender theirprovisional
licenceimmediately afterpassingthetest,thatmostdrivers wholearnttodriveduring
WorldWarII andall wholearntto drivebefore1935didnothaveto passa test,and
thatamongthosewitha provisional licenceto drivea car, somealreadyhavea
licenceto ridea motor-cycle (about10percentwhentheytaketheircar-driver test).
Theapplication forms containdetailsofthedriver's ageifheis under21 andthecopy
ofthelicencegivesdetailsofthevehicles he is entitled to drive.Somedrivers have
"general"licences whichallowthemto drivea widerangeofvehicles and,ofcourse,
ownership ofa licencetoride,say,a motor-cycle is no guarantee thatthepersonrides
one at present.Practicaldifficulties in sampling can arisebecausesomeauthorities
issuelicencesofthesameclassforslightly different groupsofvehicles, and in rare
casestherearetwocopiesofcurrently validlicencesforthesamedriver, thesecond
onebeingissuedbecausehehaslosthisfirst one. Theauthorities havetokeepdetailed
recordsof thenumberof licencesof each typeissued,whichmakesit possibleto
calculatethemagnitude of biaseswhichresultif samplesare drawnfromlicence
records andto allowforthem.
Vehiclelicencesare notideal as a sampling framefordrivers.The ownerof a
vehicleis oftena firm;manyfirms ownseveralvehiclesandthepersonfilling in the
application formmaynothimself driveanyofthevehicles.In thecaseofcommercial
andprivate vehicles theremaybemorethanonedriver pervehicle andtheir nameswill
notappearif theyare not owners.Vehiclelicenceshavesomeadvantages in that

licenceswhichwillremainvalidforthedrivers'lifetime
t The proposalto issuesubstantive will
affecttheirusefulnessforsamplingin so faras it could lead to theaddresseson thesebecoming
moreout of date.

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134 APPLIED STATISTICS
theyhaveto be renewedoncea year(themostusualcase), or at four-monthly intervals:
thusaddressesfromapplicationformsforthesewillbe moreup-to-datethanaddresses
fromapplicationformsforfulldrivinglicences.Theyhave advantageswherea group
of people who drivea specialclass of vehicleis required,forexamplemotor-cyclists
(Scott and Jackson,1968).
Drivingtestrecordscan be used in government enquiriesto obtain samplesof
learnersor newlyqualifieddrivers:the sex of the driveris recorded,togetherwith
a detailedaccountof the standardof drivingachievedduringthetest.
If saniplesof driverswho commitoffencesor have accidentsare required,data
of thiskindare knownto the police,to insurancecompaniesand to garages. None
of thesewill have detailsof all accidentsthatoccur; mostinsurancecompanies,for
commercialreasons, will not divulge details of accidentsexperiencedby named
individualsand thereare obviouspracticaldifficultiesin recovering
fulldetailsabout
an individual'saccidentor offencehistoryif this involvesa searchthroughpolice
or garagerecordsin all theareas wherehe drives.

4. EXAMPLES OF THE USE OF DIFFERENT SAMPLING FRAMES

The advantagesand disadvantagesof different samplingframeshave been listed,
but the choice betweenone or the otherdependsa greatdeal on the topic of the
enquiryand thefacilitiesavailable. Some examplesofenquiriesvaryingconsiderably
in nature,carriedout by governmentorganizations,will serve to show how the
samplingtechniquesused can varywiththe aim of theenquiry.
In thefirstenquiryto be described,some data wererequiredon theincidenceof
dangerousovertaking.This could have been done by sendingout observersto a
randomsample of roadside sites,but a quickerand cheapermethodwas required
and it was decidedto do a beforeand aftersurveyin whicha sample of motorists
were asked to reporton the numberof riskyovertakingincidentstheysaw in the
course of a day's driving.It was necessaryto do thison a country-wide basis and
withthe facilitiesavailable this had to be done by means of a postal survey.The
limitationthat the only driversinvolvedwould be 21 or over was accepted(some
9 per centof driverswould be lost because of this)and two samplesof nameswere
drawnfromtheelectoralrollsforthesurvey.The firstquestionon thequestionnaire
asked if personswho werenot driverswould returnthe questionnaireall the same,
indicatingthisfact. The responserate was about 85 per cent,using two reminder
letters.
In a studybyQuenaultet al., (1968),thesamplerequiredwas ofyoungdriversand
elderlydriverslivingneartheTransportand Road ResearchLaboratory.These were
to be asked to come into the Laboratoryto take partin a drivingexperiment.The
electorallistsfora nearbytownwereused as thesamplingframe,thenamesrequired
were selectedat the appropriatefixedintervalto provideenoughnames(1995) from
theselists,to allowfortheexpectedproportionwhowouldnotbe drivers.A vaguebut
intriguing questionnaireabout drivingwas sentby post,witha space for"age" at the
end and 89 percentreplied.Those whodroveand werein therequiredage groups(114
people) were visitedand asked if theywould take part in the experimentand 42
(40 per cent)came to theLaboratory.
In a Social Surveyenquiryby Scottand Jackson(1960) a sampleof motor-cyclists
was required.These are uncommonand drivinglicenceswouldnotbe an ideal frame
forthe purposesinceit seemedlikelythatmanywho had licencesto ride a motor-
cycle would not ride these any longer,while an unknownnumberwith the very

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 OBTAINING SAMPLES OF DRIVERS FOR SURVEYS 135

common"general"licencemightbe ridersof motor-cycles. Vehiclelicenceswere

therefore usedas thesampling frame, on theassumption thatalmostall riderswould
be ownersalso. Licensing authoritieswereselectedproportionatelyaccording to the
numberof such licencesissued. Questionnaires werethenpostedto the motor-
cyclistsselected.It will be appreciated thatthis samplingtechniqueprecluded
sending questionnairesto riderswhodo notthemselves owna motor-cycle.
An enquiry was undertaken at theTransport and Road ResearchLaboratory to
measure theeffectivenessofa leaflet withvehicle
distributed licences.Beforeandafter
interviews wereto be carriedout to determine whatchangesin knowledge and
attitudeoccurred, anda control groupwasrequired whichwouldnotgeta leaflet.In
thiscaseitwasobviously necessary tousevehiclelicencesas thesampling frame.The
enquiry wasto be onlyon a smallscale,so onecounty's records wereused:sincethe
enquiry was notto coverthewholecounty, thenumber oflicencesto be drawnwas
increased byan appropriate factorto ensurethata sufficient
number wouldliveinthe
relatively smallarea chosen. The subjectswereselectedso thatsomewouldbe
renewing a longtimebefore
theirlicences thesecondsurvey, somea shorttimebefore
it and somenotrenewing themat all during theperiodconcerned. Thusa sampleof
drivers whohadnotreceived somewhohadonerecently
a leaflet, andsomewhohad
one a longtimeago,couldbe obtained, and datafromeachofthegroupscouldbe
compared.

5. CONCLUSION
Someoftheproblems ofselectingsamplesofdrivershavebeendiscussed.Quota
methodshavenotbeenconsidered sincethesedo notinvolvesamplingframes.Some
methodsforstoringand
of theproblemsoutlinedwillbe eased as moreefficient
recovering aredeveloped
information andgovernment enquiries should
in particular
whenplansarerealizedto recorddataaboutvehicleand driving
benefit licenceson
a central
computer.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This paperis contributed of theDirector,
by permission and Road
Transport
1972.
ResearchLaboratory.CrownCopyright,

REFERENCES
GRAY, P. G., CORLETT, T. and JONES, P. (1951). The proportionof jurorsas an indexof the
economicstatusof a district.Social SurveyPaper M 60.
PARRY, M. H. (1968). Aggression on theRoad. London: Tavistock.
QUENAULT, S. W. (1967). Obtainingdrivers to takepartin experiments.Ministry of Transport
Road ResearchLaboratory, TechnicalNote TN 152.
QUENAULT, S. W., GOLBY, C. W. and PRYER, P. M. (1968). Age groupand accidentrate-driving
behaviourand attitudes.I. Ministry ofTransportRoad ResearchLaboratory, ReportLR 167.
a statistical
to youngmotor-cyclists:
SCOTT, C. and JACKSON, S. (1968). Accidents investigation-
Social SurveyReportSS 277 B.

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