DR.

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PAKISTAN AFFAIRS
LECTURE 15

DR. SANAWAR IQBAL

B.Sc (PU), B.D.S (PMC), M.S HEALTH ADMINISTRATION (IAS, PU)

PMS 2015

AD MOD 2019

DEPUTY ACCOUNT OFFICER 2020

ELECTION OFFICER 2020

CSS 2020
AC IRS

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Lecture 15
 The prevailing Social problems of Pakistan and Strategies to deal with them ,poverty ,
education , Health and Sanitation
 Pakistan’s Relations with Neighbors excluding India
 Pakistan’s Role in the Region
 Changing Security Dynamics for Pakistan: Challenges to National Security of

Pakistan

The prevailing Social problems of Pakistan and

Strategies to deal with them, poverty , education ,
Health and Sanitation
Prevailing social problems
I. Educational backwardness
II. Health Conundrum
III. Population

I. Educational backwardness

 Government is committed to achieve Goal 4 of SDGs i.e., “Quality Education”; which

stipulates equitable education, removal of discrimination, provision and up-gradation of

infrastructure, skill development for sustainable progress, universal

literacy, numeracy and enhancement of professional capacity of teachers.

 A Single National Curriculum (SNC) has been designed with the vision of one system of

education for all, in terms of curriculum, medium of instruction and a common platform of

assessment, so that all children have a fair and equal opportunity to receive high quality

education.

 The total number of enrolment during 2018-19 was recorded at 52.5 million as compared

to 51.0 million during 2017-18, which shows an increase of 2.9 percent. The

enrolment is estimated to increase to 55.0 million during 2019-20.

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 The number of institutes (both public and private) reached to 273.4 thousand during

2018-19 as compared to 262.0 thousand during 2017-18. However, the number of institutes is

estimated to increase to 279.4 thousand in 2019-20. The number of teachers during

2018-19 were 1.76 million as compared to 1.77 million during the last year.
 The number of teachers is estimated to increase to 1.80 million during 2019-20.

According to the PSLM, District Level Survey 2019-20, the literacy rate of population

(10 years and above) is stagnant at 60 percent in 2019-20 as compared to 2014-15.

Province wise analysis suggests that Punjab has the highest literacy rate, with 64 percent

followed by Sindh with 58 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Excluding Merged Areas) with

55 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Including Merged Areas) with 53 percent and

Balochistan with 46 percent.

 Public expenditures (federal & provincial governments) on education were estimated at

1.5 percent of GDP in 2019-20, as compared to 2.3 percent in 2018-19. The education related
expenditures decreased by 29.6 percent i.e., from Rs 868.0 billion to Rs 611.0 billion due to
closure of educational institutes, amid country-wide lockdown and

decrease in current expenditures (other than salaries) due to COVID-19 pandemic.

 The COVID-19 pandemic has not only created a health crisis in the country but also

adversely affected other sectors including education sector. In order to mitigate the

learning losses of students during the closure of educational institutes, the government

has launched initiatives like Tele School and Radio School to provide distance learning and

addressed provision of education to the children of far flung and remote areas during the

pandemic.

How to improve education system in Pakistan?

a) Improve infrastructure
b) Educational emergency
c) Invest at least 7% budget on education ( Paul Kennedy in PREPARING FOR THE 21ST CENTURY)
d) Improve examination system-analytical

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e) Get rid of cramming

f) Focus on technical education
g) Industry-university linkage

Health
 The COVID-19 pandemic has tested the country’s health infrastructure and identified

the need for more investment in the health sector especially for diagnostic facilities, disease

surveillance, disease prevention and spread, training of health personnel and their

protection from the pandemic, vaccine development, up-grading health care infrastructure,

emergency rooms, intensive care units, isolation wards and public awareness.

 In order to make substantial progress on Goal 3 of SDGs (Good Health and Wellbeing),

the Government of Pakistan has given priority to strengthen the health sector to further

resolve and address the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The health-related expenditure

increased by 14.3 percent from Rs 421.8 billion (1.1 percent of GDP) in

2018-19 to Rs 482.3 billion (1.2 percent of GDP) in 2019-20.

 In Pakistan, the first case of COVID-19 was confirmed on 26 February 2020, when the first

patient in Karachi tested positive. The first wave of COVID-19 claimed 6,795 lives, infected

332,186 and left behind 632 on ventilators. The government announced the second wave of

COVID-19 on 28 October 2020, when there was a sudden increase in active cases from 6,000 to

11,000 and 93 hospitalized patients were put on ventilators. The third wave of COVID-19 in

Pakistan started on 17 March 2021, when daily cases reached 3,000 with a positivity rate of 10

percent.

 Pakistan formally launched the coronavirus vaccination drive on 03 February 2021.

China has donated 1.5 million doses of the Sinopharm vaccine, which has an efficacy of 79

percent. Till 2nd June, 2021, a total of 13.0 million doses of vaccine have been received by

the Government of Pakistan and 8.3 million doses have been administered as on 5th

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June, 2021.

 The government is fully committed to increase the health coverage and provision of good

nutrition to meet the emerging demand and to develop the effective human capital.

Improvement in health sector

a) Budgetry allocation increase

b) Recruit govt drs to govt hospitals
c) Abolish nepotism, bribery in recruiting drs
d) Collaboration with developed nations
e) Sponsor drs for training in developed countries
f) Accountability of hospitals
g) Managing patient-dr ratio
h) Equal health facilities for all
Population, Labour Force and Employment

 According to the National Institute of Population Studies (NIPS) estimated

population of Pakistan is 215.25 million with a population growth rate of 1.80 percent in

20201 and

population density of 270 per Km2.

 Pakistan has an extraordinary asset in the shape of youth bulge, which means
that the largest segment of our population consists of young people. The population falling in
the age group of 15-59 years is 59 percent, whereas 27 percent is between 15-29 years. This
youth bulge can translate into economic gains only if the youth have skills consistent with the
requirements of a modern economy.
 The government has started different programmes for improving employment
opportunities

for youth such as "Prime Minister's Youth Entrepreneurship Scheme" and "Prime Minister's
Hunarmand Programme-Skills for All” etc.

 According to the "Special Survey for Evaluating Socio-Economic Impact of COVID-

19 on Wellbeing of People" conducted by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, population

working were 55.74 million, prior to COVID-19. This number declined to 35.04 million which

indicates people either lost their jobs or were not able to work. The government announced

package for construction sector and provided industrial relief, etc. Thus opening of these

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sectors, in which daily wagers were working along with fiscal stimulus and monetary

measures, helped economy to recover. Thus according to the survey in

August-October FY2021, 52.56 million resumed jobs.

Poverty

 Social protection has a central role to play in addressing the social, economic and

health dimensions of the COVID-19 crisis. The Ehsaas Emergency Cash programme

has proven to be effective in mitigating the socio-economic consequences of COVID-

19 pandemic.

 The Government has disbursed Rs 179.8 billion as one-time emergency cash

assistance to 14.8 million families at risk of extreme poverty. Since the launch of

Ehsaas, many transformative initiatives and policy reforms have effectively been

implemented nationwide. Some of the Ehsaas’ early wins across various sectors include

Ehsaas

Kafaalat, Ehsaas Emergency Cash, Ehsaas Undergraduate Scholarship, Ehsaas

Nashonuma, Ehsaas Langars, Ehsaas Interest-Free Loans, Ehsaas Amdan and several

others.
 Under Ehsaas Kafaalat Programme, the government is providing cash stipends of

Rs 2,000 monthly. Number of Kafaalat beneficiaries has been increased from 4.6 million

to 7 million. All payments are being made through the new biometric Ehsaas Digital

Payment System ensuring transparency.

 Under Ehsaas strategy, interest free loans are a major component of the National

Poverty Graduation Initiative. Since July 2019 to March 2021, a total of 1.2 million loans

(46 percent loans to women) have been disbursed amounting Rs 44.42 billion. Overall,

1,100 loan centers/branches have been established in about 110 districts by 24 partner

organizations across the country. During July-March FY2021, a total of 490,368 interest free

loans (47 percent loans to women) amounting to Rs 17.50 billion have been

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disbursed to the borrowers.

 Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF) also helps in micro-credit, water, health, education

and livelihood. Since its inception in April 2000 till March 2021, PPAF has disbursed an amount

of approximately Rs 228 billion to its Partner Organizations (POs) in 144 districts across the

country. A total of 8.4 million microcredit loans have been disbursed with 60 percent loans to

women and 80 percent financing extended to rural areas. The overall disbursements for core

operations during July-March FY2021

amounted to Rs 2.64 billion.

 Pakistan Baitul Mal (PBM) is providing financial assistance to the destitute, widows, orphans

and other needy persons at the district level. During July-March FY2021, PBM

has disbursed an amount of Rs 3.0 billion through its core projects.

 Workers Welfare Fund during July-March, FY2021 disbursed Rs 2.47 billion on 33,679

scholarship cases, while Rs 573.44 million have been utilized as marriage grants @Rs 100,000

per worker benefitting 5,736 workers' families. The WWF has also disbursed Rs 496.55 million as

a death grant @Rs 500,000 per worker, covering 994 cases of mishaps all over the country.

 EOBI provides monetary benefits to old age workers through various programmes such as Old Age

Pension, Invalidity Pension, Survivors Pension and Old Age Grant.

Pakistan’s Relations with Neighbors excluding India

 Pakistan is the second largest Muslim country in terms of population (behind Indonesia). Pakistan
is the only Muslim country known to have nuclear weapons. Pakistan is also an important member
of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC).
 Pakistan is an active member of the United Nations.
 Pakistan's relations with its neighbor, India is not good. Both countries have been fighting over the
disputed territory of Kashmir,over which they have fought two wars.
 Pakistan has also had difficult relations with neighbors Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan has had a
long and good relationship with the China.

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 Pakistan has interest over the Persian Gulf and has wide-ranging bilateral relations with the United
States and other Western countries.
 Pakistan distrusted the Soviet Union during much of the Cold War. Because of this Pakistan had
strong relations with both the United States of America and the People's Republic of China. 
Pakistan was a member of the American-sponsored CENTO and SEATO military alliances.
 Pakistans' alliance with the United States was especially close after the Soviets invaded the
neighboring country of Afghanistan.
 In 1964, Pakistan signed the Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) Pact with Turkey and
Iran, when all three countries were closely allied with the U.S., and as neighbors of the Soviet
Union, wary of perceived Soviet expansionism.
 To this day, Pakistan has had a close relationship with Turkey. RCD became defunct after the
Iranian Revolution, and a Pakistani-Turkish initiative led to the founding of the Economic
Cooperation Organization (ECO) in 1985.

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Afghanistan–Pakistan relations
 Afghanistan–Pakistan relations involve bilateral relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
 The two neighbouring countries are bordered with one another; each has declared itself an Islamic
republic and both have become members of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation.
 Relations between the two countries have been strained since 1947, when Pakistan gained
independence and Afghanistan was the sole country to vote against Pakistan's admission into the
UN.
 Afghanistan immediately armed separatist movements in the nascent Pakistan and made
irredentist claims to large swathes of Pakistani territory—which prevented the emergence of
normalised ties between the two countries.
 Further tensions have arisen with various issues related to the War in Afghanistan (1978– present),
and with the millions of Afghan refugees who have sought shelter in Pakistan since the start of that
war, water rights, the growing relations of India and Afghanistan.
 Bilateral relations between the countries have been poor, beginning immediately after Pakistan
became independent in August 1947. Afghanistan's sole vote against Pakistan's admission to the
United Nations in 1947, due to Afghan discontent with the permanency of the Durand Line.

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 Afghanistan immediately laid irredentist claims over Pashtun-dominated territories within

Pakistan,and demanded renegotiation of the border with the aim of shifting it eastwards to the
Indus River, deep within Pakistani territory.
 Shortly after Pakistani independence, Afghanistan materially supported the failed armed
secessionist movement headed by Mirz ali Khan against Pakistan.
 Afghanistan's immediate support of secessionist movements within Pakistan prevented normalised
ties from emerging between the two states
 In 1952 the government of Afghanistan published a tract in which it laid claim not only to Pashtun
territory within Pakistan, but also to the Pakistani province of Balochistan.
 Diplomatic relations were cut off between 1961 and 1963 after Afghanistan supported more
armed separatists in Pakistan, leading to skirmishes between the two states earlier in 1960, and
Pakistan's subsequent closure of the port of Karachi to Afghan transit trade.
 Mohammed Daoud Khan became President of Afghanistan in 1973, Afghanistan—with Soviet
support—again pursued a policy of arming Pashtun separatists within Pakistan.
 The Pakistani military have accused Afghanistan of sheltering various terrorist groups which launch
attacks into Pakistan,while Afghan authorities have blamed Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI,
for funding warlords and the Taliban, and for basing terrorist camps within Pakistani territory to
target Afghanistan.
 There is considerable anti-Pakistan sentiment in Afghanistan, while negative sentiment towards
the Afghan refugees is widespread in Pakistan, even in Pashtun-dominated regions.
 However, former Afghan President Hamid Karzai (in office 2004–2014) has described Pakistan and
Afghanistan as "inseparable brothers" while also alleging that Pakistan uses terrorism against
Afghanistan,which is due to the historical, religious, and ethnolinguistic connections between the
Pashtun people and other ethnic groups of both countries, as well as to trade and other ties.
 Each of the two countries features amongst the other's largest trading partners, and Pakistan
serves as a major conduit for transit trade involving landlocked Afghanistan.

Iran–Pakistan relations
 After Pakistan gained its independence in August 1947, Iran was one of the first countries to
recognize its sovereign status.
 Relations between Shi'a-majority Iran and Sunni-majority Pakistan became greatly strained due to
sectarian tensions in the 1980s, as Pakistani Shi'a Muslims claimed that they were being
discriminated against under the Sunni-biased Islamization program being imposed throughout
Pakistan by the military dictatorship government of then-President, General Muhammad Zia-
ulHaq.
 Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran and Saudi Arabia (considered the "leading state
authority" of Shi'a and Sunni Muslims, respectively) gradually began to use Pakistan as a
battleground for their proxy sectarian conflict, and Pakistan's support for the Deobandi Taliban
organization in Afghanistan during the civil wars in the 1990s became a problem for Shi'a Iran,
which opposed a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.

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 Nevertheless, both countries continue to cooperate economically where possible and are forming
alliances in a number of areas of mutual interest, such as fighting the drug trade along their
border and combating the insurgency in the Balochistan region.
 Iran has also expressed an interest in joining the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as part
of the larger Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
 Pakistan is one of the few countries where Iranian influence is positively received as per polls
conducted by the Pew Research Center. Polls have consistently shown that a very high proportion
of Pakistanis view their western neighbour positively. Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah
Khamenei has also called for the sympathy, assistance and inter-cooperation of all Muslim
nations, including Pakistan.
 Diplomatic relations between the two states have recently improved under the policies of Prime
Minister of Pakistan Imran Khan, who seeks to expand Pakistan's relationship with Iran. He has
also offered to serve as a mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran in their ongoing proxy conflict.
China–Pakistan relations
 Formal relations were established in 1950 when the Dominion of Pakistan was among the
first countries to end official diplomatic relations with the Republic of China (Taiwan) and
recognize the People's Republic of China (PRC) government on Mainland China.
 Since then, both countries have placed considerable importance on the maintenance of
an extremely close and supportive special relationship and the two countries have
regularly exchanged high-level visits resulting in a variety of agreements. The PRC has
provided economic, military, and technical assistance to Pakistan, and each country
considers the other a close strategic ally.
 Bilateral relations have evolved from an initial Chinese policy of neutrality to a
partnership with a smaller but militarily powerful Pakistan. Diplomatic relations were
established in 1950, boundary issues resolved in 1963, military assistance began in 1966,
a strategic alliance was formed in 1972, and economic co-operation began in 1979. China
has become Pakistan's largest supplier of arms and its third-largest trading partner.
 China has given Pakistan a loan of US$60 million which was later made a grant after East
Pakistan broke away. Recently, both nations have decided to cooperate in improving
Pakistan's civil nuclear power sector.
 Maintaining close relations with China is a central part of Pakistan's foreign policy. In
1986, President Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq visited China to improve diplomatic relations, and
Pakistan was one of only two countries, alongside Cuba, to offer crucial support to the
PRC after the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989.
 China and Pakistan also share close military relations, with China supplying a range of
modern armaments to the Pakistani defence forces.
 China supports Pakistan's stance on Kashmir, while Pakistan supports China on the issues
of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan.
 Military cooperation has deepened, with joint projects producing armaments ranging
from fighter jets to guided missile frigates.

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 Chinese cooperation with Pakistan has reached economic high points, with substantial
Chinese investment in Pakistani infrastructural expansion including the Pakistani
deepwater port at Gwadar.
 Both countries have an ongoing free trade agreement.
 Pakistan has served as China's main bridge to the Islamic world, and also played an
important role in bridging the communication gap between the PRC and the West by
facilitating U.S. President Richard Nixon's historic 1972 visit to China.
 The relations between Pakistan and China have been described by Pakistan's ambassador
to China as "higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, stronger than steel,
dearer than eyesight, sweeter than honey, and so on."
 According to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Pakistan is China's biggest
arms buyer, counting for nearly 47% of Chinese arms exports.
 According to a 2014 BBC World Service Poll, 75% of Pakistanis view China's influence
positively with only 15% expressing a negative view. In the Indo-Pacific region, Chinese
people hold the third most positive opinions of Pakistan's influence in the world, behind
Indonesia and Pakistan itself.
 IR scholars have observed that despite the PRC and Pakistan being "highly divergent
societies and polities with conflicting views on central global issues", the two states have
nevertheless forged a dynamic relationship over several decades – something which
supports the idea that realpolitik motivates foreign policies in the international system.
 Relations between China and Pakistan represents a striking and paradigmatic example of
how state power considerations, rather than culture, ideology, economic interest or
composition of ruling elites, can determine foreign policy behaviour – as conceptualised
by the neo-realist school of International Relations (IR) theory.

Pakistan’s Role in the Region

S-Social role
E-Economic Role
P-Political Role
T-Technological role
E-Educational role
M-Moral
B-Biological
E-Environmental
R-Regional & international

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Changing Security Dynamics for Pakistan:

Challenges to National Security
 A SERIES of recent events has led many to speculate that winds of change
pertaining to the national security paradigm may be blowing in Islamabad’s
policy corridors.
 From the Pakistan army chief’s calling on India and Pakistan to bury the past and
move on, and the exchange of letters between the two countries’ prime
ministers, to the renewed discourse on bilateral trade — despite the subsequent
backtracking — it reflects Pakistan’s apparently changing and intertwined
national security and economic diplomacy outlooks.

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 Successive governments in Pakistan, since 2008 to be precise, have struggled to

craft a brand new, comprehensive national security policy. They assigned the task
to diplomats, bureaucrats, and retired generals, who submitted the drafts to
their respective governments. While the governments, for reasons unknown,
preferred not to announce or make public those policy drafts, portions of these
made their way into the media.

 They indicated a shift from geostrategic to geo-economic considerations, and the

insertion of non-traditional and human security dimensions into the orbit of
national security. The last policy document had gone a step further by adding a
component of regional connectivity to supplement the Chinese Belt and Road
Initiative while conceiving Pakistan as a transit state.

 Although previous versions have already covered most essential elements of

national security, both internal and external, the incumbent government claims
that the policy draft it intends to put forth would be the outcome of a more
inclusive process.

 However, it is difficult to understand these ‘mysterious’ inclusive processes in

Pakistan, in particular on national security, which evade parliament and are
usually considered the exclusive domain of powerful institutions.

 Lack of parliamentary debate on the issue was also a major flaw in the previous
drafts of the national security policy. On the whole, in Pakistan, democracy or
democratic processes are hardly considered a factor in nurturing national
cohesion, building trust among communities and bringing economic prosperity to
the country.

 There is no harm in getting input from academic institutions and think tanks,
despite their sorry state of affairs in the country. At least the standing and special
committees of the lower and upper houses can be taken on board. In the end,
these committees can ensure implementation and transparency in policy
discourse. But the establishment is not a big fan of these committees and often
ridicules the ‘quality’ of the people’s representatives.

 The fate of the policy framework, which has yet to materialise, cannot be
predicted. The bureaucracy has also developed some security frameworks,
including the National Internal Security Policy, Counter Violent Extremism Policy,
and National Dialogue Policy. However, these policies have never been taken
seriously enough to be implemented.

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 The existing power structure is not capable of conceiving new ideas nor can it
implement even what it devises on its own.

 The National Action Plan is another example of this failure, with a little exception
in that parliament was taken on board, at least for its endorsement. This is the
reason NAP is still alive in memory and we recall it whenever any critical
extremism challenge arises.

 A shift in our security approach needs open discussion on public forums, media,
and in parliament.

 Developing a discourse on critical security challenges does not require rocket

science. The collective memory of a nation guides its provisions, which are largely
related to our lives, society and nation.

 Drafting may require skill and for this purpose, the bureaucracy is brought in. If
shorn of clichés and jargon, the national security discourse can be described in a
simple way.

 To handle its internal and external challenges, Pakistan needs a strong economy
and good relations with the world, especially with its neighbours. Among the
neighbours, India is the most critical challenge, mainly because of the Kashmir
issue. To deal with India, there are several courses of action possible, including
direct talks, mediation or complete disengagement.

 To defuse tensions, there are few better examples in both countries than the
efforts made by Vajpayee, Musharraf, and Mian Nawaz Sharif. If required, these
can be used as a template or they can be reinvented, but the most important
consideration is leadership.

 The relationship between India and Pakistan has passed through many ups and
downs. During the good patches it has triggered enormous optimism on both
sides, but its fundamentally conventional framework has remained intact. It is
interesting that whenever a change in national security is conceived in
Islamabad, it starts from the eastern border.

 This is natural as our political universe revolves around the threat from the
eastern side, and this is deeply rooted in our psyche.

 In that context, does there need to be a shift in Pakistan’s security approach?

Does the conventional security paradigm not serve the purpose? If so, why, and

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what kind of shift does the power elite have in mind? These questions need an
open discussion on public forums, media, and most importantly, in parliament.

 Pakistan’s political and strategic position has been subject to an international

coercive process, where its relationship with traditional allies including the US
and the Middle East has gone through a transformative phase, and India has
exploited it very well. Since its inception, Pakistan’s economy has remained
dependent on its political and strategic relationship with the world, mainly the
West, China, and the Middle East.

 Whenever global and regional political dynamics change, Pakistan’s economy

suffers. The power elites have been successful in so far as realignment and
adjusting according to their strategic needs are concerned, but they have never
seriously addressed the economic issue.

 Pakistan has to focus more on transforming its economy, which may require
good relations with India, Afghanistan and Iran. Conceiving everything in the
security perspective and putting everything in the basket of human security will
further empower the elites, which are least interested in reforming the economy,
state, and society, and more concerned about maximising the advantages to
themselves.

 The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor has become a victim of this mindset. CPEC
has great potential to transform the economy and challenge the existing means
of production, but the idea has been confined to a narrow strategic and political
context.

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