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Despite a declining poverty rate over the past few years, the IMF has also
projected a sharp reversal ahead, which may push almost 40% of Pakistanis
below the national poverty line. The cost of the expected economic slowdown
due to COVID-19 containment measures, invariably relying on some form of
lockdown, will mostly be borne by the estimated 24.89 million daily wage
earners, piece-rate workers, and self-employed in. These groups are more
vulnerable to pandemic-induced poverty due to a lack of access to social
protection programmes.
What didn’t work in the past
Pakistan has a long history of poverty reduction policies and interventions.
However, the persistently high poverty levels reflect the inadequacy of these
measures resulting mainly from a focus on static measures and limited
outreach. Poverty reduction programmes account for just about 2% of GDP;
due to lack of coordination, inefficient implementation, and inadequate
monitoring and evaluation, there is often duplication and fragmentation across
these programmes.
Despite deep-rooted economic inequalities and the sheer number of people
impacted, policymakers have largely steered clear of addressing the issue of
inequality. It is estimated that 40% of all children born in abject poverty will
remain in the lowest income quintile, another 40% will improve slightly from
very poor to poor, while only 10% will be able to transition out during their
lifetime[2]. Research also shows that while relatively high economic growth in
2001-04 was not pro-poor, the low growth period of 2005-10 saw better
poverty indices. This indicates that policy interventions for the poor are not all
the same; there is a need to have a more targeted approach for transitionary
and inter-generational chronic poor.
What Pakistan has done right
Early indications point to the government’s commitment to poverty reduction,
as it has pledged to reduce poverty by 6 percentage points to 19% by 2023.
Measures include increasing poverty alleviation expenditures and ensuring
that vulnerable groups such as women, children, and people with disabilities
receive needed aid.
One such measure is the integration of more than 134 fragmented and
insufficiently managed social protection programmes, and prone to political
manipulation, under ‘Ehsaas’. This is a new overarching programme launched
in 2019, built on the framework developed under the Benazir Income Support
Programme (BISP). BISP is one of South Asia’s largest cash transfer
programmes and Pakistan’s flagship social protection initiative. Launched in
2008, BISP currently caters to 5.7 million ultra-poor families via unconditional
cash transfers to women.