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Coenraad C. A. Labuschagne
Inaugural Lecture
6 April 2016
Health warning: if equations make you feel ill, do not look at the
next two slides.
Let T denote the fixed time of maturity of a derivative
contract and σ as the volatility of the underlying security, in
this case a stock price S.
The Black-Scholes-Merton partial differential equation
(PDE) is given by
∂f ∂f 1 ∂2f
+ rS + σ 2 S2 2 = rf
∂t ∂S 2 ∂S
where
f is the price of a derivative which depends on the stock
price St and time t ∈ [0, T].
r is a constant interest rate, known as the risk-free rate.
For a European call and put option (which are specific financial
derivatives) with strike K, the BSM PDE has solution
Vt = α S0 N (αd1 ) − Ke−r(T−t) N (αd2 )
where
S0
+ r + 12 σ 2 (T − t)
ln K
d1 = p
σ (T − t)
and √
d2 = d1 − σ T − t,
where α = 1 for a call option and α = −1 for a put option and
N (x) is the cumulative distribution function of the standard
normal distribution.
The 2008 credit crisis drove home the fact that what was
used in practice prior to the crisis as an approximation
(also called a proxy) for the theoretical notion of a risk-free
interest rate, as required by the BSM model, is totally
inadequate to yield realistic results.
The myth that banks are risk-free was disproved by the
2008 credit crisis. The default of what we used to call "too
big to fail“ banks, such as Lehman Brothers and Bear
Stearns, which defaulted in the 2008 credit crisis,
disproved the myth that banks are risk-free.
The changes forced on the BSM model by the 2008 GFC are
researched. In particular, the following problems are
considered:
What is a suitable candidate for the risk-free rate in the
South African market and how is it estimated?
Extensions of the BSM model due to improved risk
management brought about by adjustments to costs (XVA).
The Piterbarg model for option pricing as a replacement for
the BSM model.
The Piterbarg is an extension of the BSM model which takes
the posting of collateral and multiple interest rates into account.
Contributions include
Pricing of convertible bonds.
Pricing of exotic options using the Wang transform.
Establishing a connection between the Wang and
Esscher-Girsanov transforms.
Representing set-valued risk measures defined on Banach
space valued Orlicz spaces.
Extensions of the BSM model to accommodate
shortcomings emphasised by the 2008 GFC.
Modelling the stock indices using univariate conditional
volatility models.
Before enlightenment
chopping wood
carrying water.
After enlightenment
chopping wood
carrying water.
Z EN P ROVERB