Modelling

A computer model is representation of a real-world process. A model is

created through mathematical analysis of the real world process. A
simulation is the computerized model to predict how a real life system
might behave. Details in a computer model can easily be changed to
see what e ects they would have. This is often cheaper and safe than
trying out changes on real world process.

9.1: Characteristics of modelling software

Modelling software is used to create the software model. Spreadsheets
can be used to computerized models, but there are also custom
written solutions that are used to model speci ic processes. Modelling
software will include some essential features:

- The ability to change variables within the software.

- Asking what-if questions to see what result of changing
variables might be.
- Formulas and functions to carry out the mathematical
calculations that form the basis of model.
- Automatic recalculation of formulas and functions.
- Rules that de ine how model behaves.
- Layers of abstraction so di erent parts of the model
can be viewed and analyzed separately.

An example of the use of modelling is to create a model of a roller-

coaster. Variables include the height of each drop, radius of the loops,
the starting speed of carriage, length of each section and the weight of
the carriage. Calculations will be used to de ine rules such as amount
of friction and how that will slow carriages down, the e ect of gravity
on carriages when they move up and down and the g-force will be
experienced by the passengers. What-if questions shall be asked, such
as:
- What would happen if we increased the speed by 2 km/h?
- What would happen if we increased the initial drop by 5 m?

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 9.2: The need for computer models

There are variety of reasons why models might be used, including
training, forecasting and construction. Whatever the reason, a model
must be able to answer what-if questions.

Models can be used for the purpose for training people for use of the
equipment. This could range from learning to drive a forklift truck to
lying an airplane or operating a nuclear power plant. Models are used
for training because there is less risk of injury to the trainees and
instructors in real environment. Costs are saved because real
equipment does not su er wear or tear, fuel is not required to operate
machinery and instructors do not need to be present all the time.

Models can also be used for forecasting. One of the most common
models for this purpose is weather forecasting. Patterns that have
happened in the past can be analyzed along with the current data to
predict weather might be in the future. Businesses and governments
use inancial modelling to predict what might happen to pro its or the
economy.

Climate change models consider the interactions between the

atmosphere, oceans, land, ice and sun to estimate the climate trends. It
can be used for long term predictions and it can be decades before it
will be known if the model is accurate. Models can also be used for
tra ic low. This can help with planning new roads, improving existing
roads or building shopping centers or residential areas. Models will take
into account existing tra ic movement and projected changes in a
number of vehicles expected along a route.
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 9.3: What-If analysis

This is the process of asking “what would happen if?”

Some examples of what if questions in a inancial spreadsheet model

might include:
- What happens to the total income for the month if we
increase the selling price by 20%

- What happens to our costs if we use a di erent

supplier for one of our parts.

- What happens to our total expenditure for the next ive

years if we move to new premises?

Part of what-if analysis includes the use of goal seek. It is possible to set
a goal and ind out what needs to be done to achieve the goal. Some
examples of goal-seek questions might include:
- What price do we need to sell at in order to sell 5000
items per month?
- How many items do we need to sell to break even?

9.4: Test A Spreadsheet Model

Goal Seek
When testing a spreadsheet model, it is important to
test formulas, functions, validation rules within a seeing what a variable needs to
be changed to for a goal in
spreadsheet. When testing a spreadsheet model, it
terms of output to be achieved.
is important to test all aspects of the model. This
could include:
- Formula and functions
- Validation rules
- Conditional formatting
- Form controls
- Graph and charts
- Cells and worksheet protection

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 A test plan needs to be created to test all these aspects of the

spreadsheet model. It needs to include clearly identi ied input values
and expected output values.

9.5: Evaluating the e ectiveness of spreadsheet models

There is a variety of tools within a spreadsheet that can be used to help
with modelling:
• Variables that can be changed to ask what if questions.
• Formulas and functions which de ine the rules of the
model.
• Graphs and charts which can show the a graphical
representation of the forecast.
• Conditional formatting to highlight the e ects.
• Goal seek to ind out what variables need to be changed
to achieve a given outcome.

9.6: Simulations
A simulation is the use of computerized model to predict how a real life
system might behave. As with modelling, simulations can be used for
training, forecasting and constructions.

Advantages Disadvantages
Expensive prototypes or the real thing do not The way a simulation reacts is only as good as the
need to be created in order to experiment with model it is based upon.
di erent variations and answer what-if
questions.

Changes to the model can be made very Simulation software and equipment can be very
quickly and the e ect can be seen just as expensive to purchase.
quickly.

Alternative models and designs can be used People need to be trained to use simulation
to see how they react di erently. equipment and software.
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 Uses of simulations include:

• Natural Disaster Planning: When planning for natural
disasters, people need to know what the e ects of
natural disaster might be. Simulations based on
models of natural disasters such as earthquakes,
volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, bush ires, tsunamis
can be used to see what the e ects might be.

• Pilot Training: When it comes to large aircraft, it can

cost thousands of pounds just to take o , ly and land.
This cannot be repeated too often as it will become
too costly to train pilots. Flight simulators can help by
removing fuel costs associated with the lying.

• Car Driving: Simulators can be used to help to learn

drive a car. In most countries, learner drivers start
immediately on the road having never used any of
car’s control before. They immediately have to deal
with the hazards such as other cars, pedestrians,
cyclists, potholes and dangerous junctions. In addition
to this, other drivers on the road are held up because
of the learner driver being slow and hesitant.

• Nuclear science research: Nuclear science is very

dangerous. Even a small accident can expose a
person to radiation that could cause serious
dis igurement or death. It is therefore not possible to
experiment with nuclear reactions in the real world in
the hope that something might work. Simulations can
be used to try out di erent nuclear reactions by
adjusting the coolant temperature, changing the way
control rods are used and the rate of reaction.
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