THE FUTURE IS HERE

THE FUTURE OF BANKING

 AGENDA
1. Introduction

2. How we work

3. Macro-trends

4. Trends

5. Springboards
INTRODUCTION
ANY QUESTIONS?
JAMES@THEFISH.CO / @JAMESWALLMAN
HOW WE FORECAST
 “The future is already here, 

it’s just not very evenly distributed.”

William Gibson
 HOW WE
FORECAST
1. Understand the
macro-trends
 HOW WE
FORECAST
1. Understand the
macro-trends

2. Investigate the
innovation
 HOW WE
FORECAST
1. Understand the
macro-trends

2. Investigate the
innovation

3. Use Diffusion of
Innovations curve
 HOW WE
FORECAST
1. Understand the
macro-trends

2. Investigate the
innovation

3. Use Diffusion of
Innovations curve
STORY OF THE SALAD
In 2002-3, McDonald’s
shares fell 56%

First quarterly loss

since 1954
Then, McDonalds
pushed healthy eating
Next, 36 consecutive
months of sales growth
The learning: salads
sell burgers and fries
THE FUTURE OF BANKING
 “The perfectly timed external forces coming from demographic,
social, economic and regulatory phenomena have contributed to
arguably the biggest revolution in the banking world in
centuries”.

Challenger Banking report, Burnmark

“Banking is necessary. 

Banks are not.”

Bill Gates
MACRO-TRENDS
 PLANET OF THE PHONES
• iPhone launched 2007
• 7.6bn people on Earth, 5.5bn over 14
• 5bn mobile phones, 3bn smartphones
• 700m iPhones, 1.8bn Google Androids,
500m Chinese Androids
Source: Benedict Evans, partner, a16z
TECHNOLOGICAL
TIMES
• AI & ML
• AR & VR
• IoT
• Blockchain

Vtime is the VR social network, with

more than 0.5m downloads
EVOLUTION OF
CAPITALISM
• From scarcity to
abundance
• From mass produced
to mass customised
• Experientialism
• Sharing economy
• The platform model
Malibu Dream Airsteam on Airbnb
 HERE COMES
EVERYBODY
Competition can come
from anywhere today.
• GAAFA entering
financial services

Dyson will invest £2bn and

release an EV in 2020
WHAT BARRIERS TO
ENTRY?
• New EU and UK
regulations is reducing
barriers to entry.
• In the UK, Open
Banking…
• In the EU, PSD2…
• Banks now have to open
up their data via APIs so
that other financial
services firms can access
client data
ACCELERATING
CHANGE
“The pace of
technological change
[is] making heads
spin”.
The Economist
TRENDS
 FINTECH
EXPLODING
Money is pouring into
fintech firms.
• £524m in the UK
• £3.6bn in California
• £1.4bn in New York
Source: Burnmark
 OPEN BANKING
Smart banks are embracing
open API banking.
• Saxo Bank opened up
their APIs in 2015, so
that partners, customers,
and fintechs can create
new ways of optimizing
their trading experiences
• solarisBank wants to
enable “n-to-n
relationships between all
parties”
 HERE COMES
EVERYBODY
• Challenger banks
• N26
• Monzo
• Neo-banks
• Moven
• Holvi
• Non-banks
 “We try to reimagine how a bank should work and we tried to
build something that is like using Uber or Spotify or any of these
apps you love to use.”

Valentin Stalf, CEO & co-founder, Number26

 “[Millennials] think of banking like they do apps:
‘What’s the best app or product or service to solve this problem
I have right now — whether that’s paying off a student loan or
buying a new car or buying a home or getting insurance?’
They’re starting to cherry-pick these services.”
Brett King, CEO, Moven
 BORDERLESS
BUSINESS
In our connected
world, borders are less
important.
• BBVA’s Holvi
• Transferwise’s new
“borderless account”
 GAAFA FINANCE
• 1/5 Europeans would
use financial products
from Google,
Facebook, and
Amazon
• Google and
Facebook let users
send money to friends
by email
Source: Fujitsu
Starling Bank is available 

via Google Home
 NON-BANKS
The long-tail of
financial services.
• Monese
• Metromile
• Myloo
 NON-BANKS
The long-tail of
financial services.
• Monese
• Metromile
• Myloo
FREE-CONOMIC
BANKING
The long-tail of
financial services.
• Revolut: zero-fee
foreign money card
• Robinhood: free
tracking and trading

Chris Anderson’s book

heralded a new price.
 A.I.F.A.s
Artificial intelligence
financial advisors make
managing money easy.
“An independent,
universal banking app
for my generation and
anyone else who wants
to make their money
work harder for them.”
Ed Maslaveckas, founder, Bud
 A.I.F.A.s
• Bud
• Pocketbook
• Tink
• YOLT
• Mint
 NEXT
GENERATION
A.I.F.A.s
A new band of fintech
startups is actively
advising its users.
• FutureAdvisor
• Moola
• Betterment
In Her, Theodore Twombly’s AI is
talking to 841 other people, and is in
love with 641 other people.
 BLOCKCHAIN
BANKING
“Blockchains could greatly
reduce the time, cost, and
risk of many transactions…
every aspect of banking…
three business areas with
the highest benefits [are]
reference data, retail
payments and consumer
lending.”
IBM & The Economist Intelligence Unit
(EIU)
SPRINGBOARDS
HOW MIGHT WE…
CREATE NEXT GENERATION UX?
HOW MIGHT WE…
DEVELOP NEXT GENERATION A.I.F.A.s?
HOW MIGHT WE…
DISRUPT OUR OWN BUSINESS?
THE FUTURE OF BANKING
THE FUTURE IS HERE
JAMES@THEFISH.CO / @JAMESWALLMAN