For Your Classroom

“Our Entrepreneurship bachelor students are charged

with developing products, services, or campaigns that
delight customers.

Our students find this extremely difficult, and

traditionally 80% of them come up with copycats, like
umbrellas, pens or t-shirts.

This year, we have incorporated TrendWatching’s

Trend-Driven Innovation methodology into our startup
curriculum, and the number of “me-too-products” has
dropped to 40%. A staggering result. ”

Drs. Niek Ploegman

— Research Lecturer Entrepreneurship; Rotterdam
University of Applied Sciences, The Netherlands

[Niek is a TW:Premium client, with the

“Trend-Driven Innovation” book included on his class’
required reading list]
INTRODUCTION

Trend-Driven Innovation
For Your Classroom
We are about to reconfigure your students’
view of the business world, forever.

Every future CEO, startup founder, innovator and learning how to draw powerful insights from the way
marketer is (or ought to be!) obsessed by the question leading brands and disruptive startups—from Apple
of where customers are headed. And, it’s the hardest to Uber, Chipotle to Patagonia—redefine customer
question to answer. expectations.

We, at Trendwatching, have been hard at work stripping
apart what we do and why it works to help you, your
students and countless brands answer this question.
We realized that our trend and innovation methodology
is based on a powerful, counter-intuitive truth: to
discover what people want next, stop looking at
customers and start looking at businesses. That means
The following pages have been created to give you
a shortcut to understanding the foundation of our
Trend-Driven Innovation methodology, including why it
works and how you can use it to bring a fresh, powerful
perspective and approach to your curriculum and to
your students.
 START

With Trend-Driven Innovation, your students will learn:

[1] How to spot emerging consumer trends, and how

to recognize the expectation gaps that herald
opportunity.

[2] Why most professionals focus on the obvious, instead

of digging for the real opportunities, and how to
avoid this.

[3] How to turn trends and insights into better

innovations that customers will love.

Here’s to the start of your Trend-Driven Innovation Journey.

Let’s dive in!
[CONTENTS]

1 2
The Expectation Economy Trends 101

14 The Expectation Economy 22 The three fundamental trend

elements

26 Spotting your own trends

32 Building a trend framework

 3 4 5
Evaluating Trends for
Opportunity
Generating Trend-Driven
Innovation Ideas
Continuing the Journey in
the Real World

40 Three axes of adaptation 50 The Consumer Trend Canvas 62 Vaporware

42 The Consumer Trend Radar 52 In Classroom Workshops 64 Hack Days

66 Prototyping

68 Pre-Tail

70 Premium Service

72 Bring Trend-Driven Innovation

into your classroom
1
The Expectation Economy
THE 1
EXPECTATION
ECONOMY

Welcome to the economy of ever-accelerating customer

expectations, applied subconsciously and relentlessly
by customers—us—to every purchase decision,
experience and moment of attention.

Business today can feel like a constant avalanche

of new products, services and campaigns—from
competitors and non-competitors alike—flooding
into the market. Meanwhile, customers’ expectations
are only increasing at a more accelerated pace than
ever before. It’s overwhelming. How can any brand be
expected to keep up?

In the end, business success can be boiled down to a

simple formula: anticipate what your customers will want
next, and give it to them.

14
One traditional approach to doing so? Ask customers
what they want, via surveys, questionnaires, panels and
beyond. The challenge, though, in relying on these
insights is that what people often say they want, and what
they really want, are often light-years apart.

Okay, so let’s forget asking people what they want. How

about watching them? Sure, this kind of ethnographic
fieldwork can yield deep insights. On the other hand, it’s
time consuming, slow and expensive.

Wait! Problem solved! We have Big Data. Then again,

while data is often great when it comes to optimizing what YOU CAN KNOW WHAT
you’re already doing, taken alone, it rarely generates the YOUR CUSTOMERS
radical insights that can underpin something truly new. ARE GOING TO WANT
So what’s the answer? NEXT. NOT BY ASKING
THEM, WATCHING
THEM, OR CRUNCHING
THEIR DATA. INSTEAD,
BY LOOKING AT THE
INNOVATIONS THAT
THEY’RE LAVISHING
ATTENTION ON NOW.

15
THE EXPECTATION ECONOMY

But how can that be true? Why does watching, and

interrogating, innovations lead to actionable foresight
into what your customers will want next?

The answer lies in the expectations those innovations

are creating. Take Uber, for example.

As citizens of an Uberized-world, it’s easy to point to a

phenomenon that defines the Expectation Economy—
something we call “Expectation Transfer”. As you
may relate, many of us now expect ‘on demand’
service—from food delivery to tech support—thanks
to an expectation that Uber has cemented within us of
convenience and quality at the push of a button, alla
‘one touch service’.

16
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 1] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

Willingness to wait in a city, 2013 vs. 2014

Shifting Patience
1
2013
0.8 2014

COMPLETED RIDES
0.6

0.4
[FEATURE]
UBER: HOW 0.2

NEWCOMERS
TRANSFORM 4 8 12 16 20
EXPECTATION ETA (MINUTES)

Consumer expectation can sometimes Uber’s data looked at how the estimated driver arrival

seem an intangible substance: hard to see,
even harder to quantify. And that can make
it difficult to perceive the impact of new,
higher-quality entrants on expectation.
In January 2015, transportation provider Uber made
public a dataset that provides a remarkable glimpse of
the Expectation Economy in action.
time shown to users influenced their decision to complete
or cancel a planned trip. In city after city the pattern was
clear: the longer Uber had been operating in the city, the
less patient users became when it came to pick up times
(as shown above). In short, as the inhabitants of a city
became more familiar with Uber, their expectations of fast
pick-up increased. The implication, in Uber’s own words?
‘We realize we have to continually raise the bar’.
We couldn’t have put it better ourselves.

17
2
Trends 101
TRENDS 101 2
Why trends are a valuable &
foresightful unit of measure

[2.1]
The three
fundamental trend
elements
[2.2]
Spotting your own
trends
[2.3]
Building a trend
framework

20
The moment you say ‘trends’ you step into a minefield
of potential confusion. Are you talking about aging
populations, the rise of China or the next breakout
digital device? Or, are you about to forecast the next
season’s hottest color and runway style?

Not surprisingly, consumer trends are about consumers:

how they behave, what they want and how they view
the world around them.

More importantly for business professionals, trends

unlock opportunities. Understanding change—in
people’s behaviors, attitudes and expectations—gives
you the unique vantage point to deliver what people,
A CONSUMER TREND IS
customers, want. Not only now, but in the future, too. A NEW MANIFESTATION
AMONG PEOPLE—IN
BEHAVIOR, ATTITUDE,
OR EXPECTATION—OF A
FUNDAMENTAL HUMAN
NEED, WANT OR DESIRE.

21
TRENDS 101
2.1
THE FUNDAMENTAL
TREND ELEMENTS
Three core components. One point of
tension to identify and resolve.

There are three fundamental elements that drive all

trends:

[1] Basic Needs

[2] Drivers of Change

[3] Innovations

Take a look at the diagram below. If you’re simply

innovating around basic needs, without considering how
the world is changing, you’re only going to create more
of what already is. Conversely, if all you’re thinking about
is how the world is changing, and you forget basic human
needs and wants, you’ll produce fads and novelties. That’s
why you’re aiming for the sweet spot—where change
meets basic needs and creates new expectations that
YOU can serve!

E X P E C TAT I O N
GAPS

BASIC NEEDS DRIVERS

OF CHANGE

THE
SWEET
SPOT
MORE OF
N O V E LT I E S
THE SAME

INNOVATIONS

22
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 2] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

THE SECRET TO SPOTTING

TRENDS–AND BEING READY TO
ACT ON THE OPPORTUNITIES
THEY PRESENT YOU–LIES
IN IDENTIFYING POINTS OF
TENSION BETWEEN WHAT
PEOPLE WANT AND WHAT IS
CURRENTLY AVAILABLE.

23
TRENDS 101:
THE THREE TREND ELEMENTS

[1]
BASIC NEEDS
We’re all human. Trends—and behavior more broadly—
are ultimately rooted in our basic, fundamental, rarely
(if-ever) changing human needs, wants and desires, like
creativity, self-improvement, safety or status.

Identifying these basic needs and desires isn’t rocket

science or even deep social science! They are the forces
that have been shaping personal and social relations for
centuries, if not millennia. Identifying underlying human
needs is central to spotting and/or understanding any
consumer trend.

[2]
DRIVERS OF CHANGE
There are no trends without change. Switched-on
professionals constantly ask ‘What’s changing?’ And, they
look at how it might be possible to service people’s basic
human needs and wants in novel ways. To analyze change,
think in terms of shifts: long-term, macro changes such as
urban transition, aging populations and climate change.
Take these shifts, alongside triggers: more immediate
changes that drive the emergence of a trend, such as
specific technologies, political events, economic shocks,
environmental incidents and more.

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 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 2] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

[3]
INNOVATION
Innovations are not trends. That said, without examples
of customer-facing innovations that point to and tie
into a trend, a trend can’t be said to fully exist. Take,
for instance, the rise of the ‘on-demand economy’.
Without the existence and rapid growth of services like
Uber or Instacart, there’s little proof or muster that the
trend is taking shape. That’s why the third element of
every trend is innovations: the startups, new products,
services, experiences and campaigns that are resolving
points of customer tension and creating new levels of
customer expectation.

25
TRENDS 101
2.2
SPOTTING YOUR
OWN TRENDS

Now that we know what makes up a trend, it’s helpful to
have a shared definition for what a trend actually is. At
TrendWatching, we refer to a trend as a new manifestation
among people–in behavior, attitude, or expectation–of a
fundamental human need, want or desire.
From this shared understanding, let’s explore how you can
start identifying consumer trends in your classroom.
[1] Look for ‘clusters’ of multiple innovations that indicate
a number of companies putting similar bets on the future,
all while creating new levels of customer expectation.
[2] Don’t limit your search to product innovation. We
suggest looking at four types of innovation (see opposite
page). These are, of course, more clean cut in theory than
in practice. For example, in early 2015 Marriott Hotels
launched an initiative offering guests at selected hotels
and resorts free use of GoPro cameras to capture their
holiday memories. Guests were encouraged to share
their content across social media using the hashtags
#travelbrilliantly and #viajegenial in order to be featured
on the brand’s dedicated site and win prizes. This
innovation spans all the four types: supporting the vision
of travel as being about memorable experiences, while
tapping into a free, crowd-sourced business model that is
powered by a complementary rental service, in order to
generate authentic marketing messages.
[3] The more diverse the range of innovations you spot,
the more reliable your insights about future customer
needs and wants. Look for innovations that show how the
trend is playing out in different contexts. How are startups
catering to the trend? How does that differ from big
multinationals?

26
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 2] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

The four types of innovation:

VISION BUSINESS MODEL

How are the shifts driving the Is the trend unlocking whole
trend manifested in the long- new business models?
term visions of companies at
the forefront of the trend?

PRODUCT/SERVICE/ MARKETING
EXPERIENCE How are brands reflecting
What new products and the trend in their marketing
services are emerging as a and campaigns? How are
result of the trend? consumers responding?

27
TRENDS 101:
SPOTTING YOUR OWN TRENDS

Experiencing trends in the real world is a great

alternative to yet another Power Point presentation. It
helps people understand one of TrendWatching’s core
beliefs: trends are not mystical abstractions. Rather, they
are around us everywhere, every day. We just need to be
observant. When you see something novel or innovative
ask the questions: Why is this happening? What new
consumer expectations will this trigger? And, why does
it matter? What is the innovation potential it presents to
my business?

[TIP] Go on a Trend Safari and spot trends yourself.

28

We recently had the pleasure of running trend safaris in
two of the most exciting cities in Europe: in Berlin for
Autogrill, and in London for Marriott Hotels.
Through a nearly full day journey, we experienced
innovative retail experiences, culinary concepts,
exhibitions, sensory installations, quirky design shops,
startups and local entrepreneurs, new client service and
promotion approaches, innovative products and more.
Our approach? Stops are chosen to bring the consumer
trends, identified as most relevant for the client’s
business, to life. Different routes throughout the city
29
TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 2] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM
are created for different teams, each being guided by a
team leader. The participants have short chats with the
business owners to get deeper insights and discover the
challenges in running their businesses.
Included in each trend safari kit is a map, a pen and
information about the stopovers, along with Inspiration
Cards to help each participant document and translate
his/her insights from each stopover into business ideas.
TRENDS 101:
SPOTTING YOUR OWN TRENDS
Chris Stephenson, Director, Design and Development
Global Operations, Europe at Marriott International,
explains why they turned to a Trend-Driven Innovation
workshop and Trend Safari for their Operations
Academy, when 20+ directors of their worldwide
operations met in London:
WHAT ROLE DID TRENDS PLAY IN SOLVING THE
BUSINESS CHALLENGES YOU SET FOR YOUR TEAMS?
We were inspired by the trends [workshop] session, as it
provided examples from other industries that enabled us
to consider our own business challenges differently. As
a result, the concept ideas presented by the teams were
much more ambitious and represented a bigger stretch
for each of our brands.
30
WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST BENEFIT OF THE TREND
SAFARI FOR YOU AND ALL INVOLVED?
Learning about innovative concepts developed by local
entrepreneurs in other sectors was a critical part of
helping us to think about how to take a different approach
to problem solving within our own business.
WHAT WAS THE MOST SURPRISING ASPECT OF THE
TREND SAFARI FOR YOU?
Finding out how well networked local entrepreneurs are. By
collaborating together they get to take risks on innovation
that they may not otherwise be able to do alone.
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 2] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

#atgberlin

#marriottrace

31
TRENDS 101
2.3
BUILDING A TREND
FRAMEWORK
From big to small:
Mega-trends. Trends. Innovations.

A good Trend Framework allows you to put almost every
innovation you spot into context.
We feed our trend insights into the three main ‘layers’
shown in the pyramid on the opposite page. At the
bottom are hundreds of innovations, clusters of which
support the middle layer of individual trends. Above this
sits the mega-trend layer.
If our approach to spotting individual trends is bottom up
(and driven by clusters of business innovations), then our
approach to structuring our Trend Framework is top down
(and driven by the big forces shaping the future of the
consumer arena at large).
We look at two main forces when assessing our
mega-trends:
[1] Human. These are the universally relevant human
needs and wants that make up the first fundamental
element of trend analysis. They include the search for
social status, for connection, for self-improvement, for
entertainment, for reliable and trusted information and
more.
[2] Environmental. Changes in our external environments
are a fundamental element of trend analysis. Examples
include increasing transparency, the shifting contours of
global economic power, and the blurring of boundaries
between producer and consumer thanks to creative
technologies and platforms.
Whether internally or externally focused, mega-trends
are big, slow moving ‘currents’ that remain broadly stable
year-on-year, and can be applied across regions, industries

32
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 2] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

and demographics. People aren’t suddenly (if ever) going Orient these within a Trend Framework. Too abstract? Let’s
to stop wanting information, or no longer care about the bring it to life by walking through our Trend Framework as
impact of the products they consume. it currently stands.

That’s not to say mega-trends don’t ever change. In late

2014 we replaced our TRIBES & LIVES mega-trend (which
captured trends related to specific customer segments
and lifestyles) with the POST-DEMOGRAPHIC mega-trend MEGA MEGA
TREND TREND
(see p.35). This reflected the fact that traditional customer
segmentation–via conventional perspectives on gender,
income, age, family status and more–is increasingly
inadequate in a world where people are constructing their TREND TREND TREND
identities more freely than ever before.

There you have it, in a nutshell. Start by identifying

clusters of innovations. Analyze these using the
fundamental elements to uncover potential new trends. INNOVATIONS

33
TRENDS 101:
BUILD A TREND FRAMEWORK

This Trend Framework, encapsulating our 16 mega trends,

is just the tip of the iceburg. Take a look at our book,
“Trend-Driven Innovation,” for more insight into each of
these trend pillars.

34
STATUS SEEKER BET TERMENT HUMAN BR ANDS BET TER
BUSINESS
The never-ending The universal quest for The search for more
pursuit of status self-improvement authentic brands The search for a more
ethical, sustainable
consumerism

YOUNIVERSE LOCAL LOVE UBITECH INFOLUST

The desire to be The importance of The ever-greater The need for relevant
seen and served as local context pervasiveness of and actionable
unique technology information

PL AYSUMERS EPHEMER AL FUZZ YNOMICS PRICING

PANDEMONIUM
The ageless quest The scarcity of time The collapse of the
for fun and its consequences barriers between The fluidity of price
consumer and and value
producer

HELPFULL JOYNING POST- REMAPPED

DEMOGR APHIC
The demand The core instinct to The shifting
for convenient and connect with others The death of demo- dynamics of the
superior service graphic segmentation global economy
3
Evaluating Trends for Opportunity
EVALUATING 3
TRENDS FOR
OPPORTUNITY

[3.1]
Three axes of
adaptation
[3.2]
The Consumer
Trend Radar

38
You’ve already learned to spot trends. Maybe you’re even
spotting more than you can handle!

How can you now isolate that ever-crucial handful of

trends that will see you launch a new product or service
that customers love, create a campaign that gets everyone
talking, innovate your way to a new business model or
even overhaul your organization’s entire vision?

There is a core truth when it comes to consumer trends:

almost any trend can offer you powerful innovation
opportunities. Unlocking these opportunities starts with
adapting the trend for your context. To see how, let’s look
at the three key dimensions of adaptation that you can
use to do just that.

39
EVALUATING TRENDS FOR OPPORTUNITY
3.1
THREE AXES OF
ADAPTATION

[1] Trend maturity: how are the customer expectations

that inform this trend playing out now?

[2] Locality: how are the customer expectations that

inform this trend playing out in my target locality?

[3] Industry: how are the customer expectations that

inform this trend playing out in my industry?

Evaluating a trend against those three dimensions—with

examples to boot in our book, “Trend-Driven Innovation”—will
allow you to see deeper into the innovation opportunities that a
given trend offers you. And, what you learn from that evaluation
will prove invaluable when you start to prioritize the trends you’re
going to work with, using the Consumer Trend Radar.

40
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 3] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

WHENEVER YOU SPOT A TREND,

KEEP IN MIND THE THREE AXES
OF ADAPTATION: MATURITY,
LOCALITY, INDUSTRY.

41
EVALUATING TRENDS FOR OPPORTUNITY
3.2
THE CONSUMER
TREND RADAR
Prioritizing trends for your business.

The answers to those questions depend on you. More
specifically, on your organization’s goals and priorities, its
capabilities and resources, and the vision your team has,
or would like to create, for your shared future.
The Consumer Trend Radar (CTR) is a powerful tool that
facilitates this assessment and helps you build a one-page
visual, shareable trend-led strategy.
When plotting trends on the CTR, think about the
following dimensions:
[1] INNOVATION TARGET: Where will you apply the
trend?
[2] PRIORITY: When will you apply the trend?
three dimensions, you’ll move toward the beginnings of
ideation. Expect thoughts such as: ‘This trend could help
us find our way to new services that reduce waiting time,
which is an urgent priority, so I think we should apply this
trend soon’ or ‘I can really see an app now followed by a
campaign’.
Broad ideation of this kind is a natural part of setting your
trend priorities. Just remember, planning and prioritization
of trends are the key focus of your sessions with the CTR.
There will be plenty of time to move towards specific,
concrete innovation ideas when you use the Consumer
Trend Canvas, up next!

[3] RESPONSE: How intensely will you apply the trend?

Invariably, when you also consider a trend against these

42
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 3] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

THE CONSUMER TREND RADAR

E
V IC
ER VI
/S S
T

IO
UC

N
OD
PR

BRAND:

NOW NEXT BEYOND

MA
RK

L
DE
ET
IN

O
M
G

CA
ES
S
/

RESPONSE: M N
PA SI
I GN BU
Light S

Intense

Total

43
EVALUATING TRENDS FOR OPPORTUNITY:
THE CONSUMER TREND RADAR

[EXAMPLE]
TRENDWATCHING
This worked example
shows how we at CE
R VI
SE VI
S
TrendWatching /
T

IO
UC

N
recently plotted three
OD
PR

mega-trends that
REMAPPED
are important to our
future on the CTR. INFOLUST

BRAND:

NOW NEXT BEYOND

TRENDWATCHING

FUZZYNOMICS
MA
RK

L
DE
ET
IN

O
M
G

CA
ES
S
/

M I N
PA
I GN B US
S

44

FUZZYNOMICS
Driven by the democratization of
technologies, tools and platforms,
the boundaries between producers
and consumers are rapidly blurring.
BUSINESS MODEL / NEXT / TOTAL
We already crowdsource many
innovations from tw:in, our global
network of trend spotters. How
could we transform the network to
exponentially increase the number
and quality of submissions, allowing
us to provide entirely new kinds of
crowd-powered insight?
TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N
INFOLUST
Consumers will continue to embrace
tools that offer them entertaining
and useful information in new and
compelling ways.
PRODUCT-SERVICE / NOW / INTENSE
Of course, trend information is what
we’ve always been about! But this
mega-trend aligns with our aim to
surface powerful data on how our
readers interact with trends. Think
heat maps of important trends by
industry and region, user-generated
insight and more.
45
[ 3] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM
REMAPPED
The rise of a multipolar global
economy is not just expanding
consumer markets, it’s creating
new processes, structures, business
models and brands.
VISION / NEXT / TOTAL
A fundamental part of the our vision
for the months and years ahead is
that we increase our international
presence and our ability to deliver
global insight with local relevance.
A demanding and ongoing
commitment.
4
Generate Trend-Driven
Innovation Ideas
GENERATE 4
TREND-DRIVEN
INNOVATION IDEAS

[4.1]
The Consumer
Trend Canvas
[4.2]
In Classroom
Workshops

48
49
GENERATE TREND-DRIVEN INNOVATION IDEAS
4.1
THE CONSUMER
TREND CANVAS

The Consumer Trend Canvas (CTC) is an easy-to-follow,
one-page tool that walks you through a trend and helps
you move from insight to innovation.
At its core are all the elements we’ve covered so far in this
educational guide. We’ve honed both the canvas and the
underlying methodology that supports it during the 14+
years we’ve been discovering trends and making their
application more accessible. This methodology has been
battle-tested during our work with hundreds of leading
brands, agencies, consultancies, schools, nonprofits and
more, across six continents. It works.
action. It lays out the three core elements of a trend–basic
needs, drivers of change, and innovations–in order to help
you assess how these components fit together and build
new expectations. It prompts you to think about where,
how and who for you will apply the trend to create new–
and delight existing–customers.
The canvas will help you not only understand a trend
better, but also ensure that your new initiatives are deeply
grounded in what customers want, desire and expect.
Let’s see how. See opposite page to see it in action.

It works because it’s simple. It divides the process of

working with a trend into two main parts: analysis and
application. It guides you to ask the right questions. It
pushes you to examine examples of your chosen trend in

50
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 4] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

THE CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

A NA LYZE APPLY

T R E ND

INSPIRATION EMERGING INNOVATION TARGET

EXPECTATIONS

BASIC NEEDS DRIVERS OF CHANGE INNOVAT

UR I

O
YO

N
SHIFTS (long-term) TRIGGERS (short-term)

WHO

51
GENERATE TREND-DRIVEN INNOVATION IDEAS
THE CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

[TREND ]

M2P
(Mentor-To-Protégé) Humans have an innate desire to accountability or encouragement
better themselves, whether it’s their can make motivation an issue.
Customers will
productivity, fitness or mindfulness. Indeed, lack of mentor contact
embrace ways to
And self-improvement should be is cited as a prime reason for the
quickly and easily now be easier than ever: dismal completion rates by students
connect with personal First, the proliferation of tracking of MOOCs (Massive Open Online
mentors that have the technology (in running shoes, Courses).

knowledge, skills and wristbands and especially in At the same time, people expect

experience they seek. smartphones) is providing people brands to empower them, and they
with detailed and ubiquitous expect instant digital connection (as
personal data that can be used to set evidenced by brands from Tinder
goals and monitor progress. to Snapchat). Smart brands will

Second, there are now a host of meet these two expectations while
facilitating self-improvement.
platforms that have democratized
learning. However limited personal

52

INSPIRATION
Check out the businesses
that are already applying
the trend.
GOQii
FITNESS TRACKER LINKS TO TRAINER
Launched in India in 2014, the
GOQii fitness tracker connects users
directly to a real personal trainer to
push them to reach their goals. Data
from the wristband is shared with
a trainer who uses the information
to offer personalized tips and
encouragement.
TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N
CODEMENTOR
INSTANT VIDEO HELP FOR CODERS
Codementor connects those
struggling with a programming
problem with expert developers.
Launched in 2014, users post a
problem in the online marketplace,
and then connect to specialists to
work together via screen-sharing and
video and text chat.
53
[ 4] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM
RISE
TOUGH LOVE FROM NUTRITIONISTS
Rise is a dietary advisory service.
Users connect with a nutritionist
via the mobile app, and receive a
customized weight loss plan. Users
share a photo diary of their meals,
and receive feedback from their
coach, with options ranging from
‘supportive’ to ‘tough love’.
GENERATE TREND-DRIVEN INNOVATION IDEAS
THE CONSUMER TREND CANVAS

[A]
ANALYZE

A N A LY Z E

TR END

INSPIRATION EMERGING
EXPECTATIONS
M2P
RISE CODEMENTOR
GOQII

INSTANT SOCIAL
BASIC NEEDS DRIVERS OF CHANGE
CONNECTION
SHIFTS (long-term) TRIGGERS (short-term)

SELF-IMPROVEMENT ADVANCES IN
FOCUS WEARABLES
BRANDS MUST
ON HEALTHY
EMPOWER
LIVING SELF-TRACKING
CONNECTION CONSUMERS
TECH

KNOWLEDGE & ADOPTION OF

SKILL-BASED MOBILE SOCIAL
VALIDATION
ECONOMIES PLATFORMS

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[B]
APPLY

AP P LY AP P LY

INNOVATION TARGET INNOVATION TARGET

LIVE VIDEO TUTORIALS IN-GAME ASSISTANCE

1. Kitchenware manufacturer BUNDLED WITH FROM TOP PLAYERS
Pots and pans are sold with a PRODUCT PURCHASE
voucher entitling the buyer to a
personal video tutorial (via tablet
INNOVAT INNOVAT
or mobile app) with a professional UR I UR I
O

O
YO

YO
N

N
chef using the specific product. COOK WITH MEET
Personalized ‘virtual cookery school’ A CHEF THE MASTERS
packages are available as a product
extension.

2. Mobile gaming developer

WHO WHO
Create a feature where gamers can
purchase credits to receive live ASPIRING CHEFS WHO ARE
INTIMIDATED BY CERTAIN STRUGGLING GAMERS
voice-chat tips during gameplay
TECHNIQUES
from highly ranked players
(Masters). Users rank the quality of
the tips, and the Masters receive in-
game currency in return.

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GENERATE TREND-DRIVEN INNOVATION IDEAS
4.2
IN-CLASS ROOM
WORKSHOPS

If you’re interested in having one of our trend and

innovation experts lead a Trend-Driven Innovation
workshop with you and your students, please let us know!
While we can (and recommend) customizing this workshop
to your needs, here’s a topline overview of what we can
bring to your classroom.

[1] KNOW Trends, insights and innovations.

[2] FOCUS With the Consumer Trend Radar.

[3] DO With the Consumer Trend Canvas.

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KNOW FOCUS DO
Trends, insights and innovations With the Consumer Trend Radar With the Consumer Trend Canvas

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5
Continuing the journey
in the real world
CONTINUING THE 5
JOURNEY IN THE
REAL WORLD

[5.1]
Vaporware
[5.2]
Hack Days
[5.3]
Prototyping
[5.4]
Pre-tail
[5.5]
Premium Service
[5.6]
Bring Trend-Driven Innovation
into your classroom

60
61
CONTINUING THE JOURNEY IN THE REAL WORLD
VAPORWARE
Test demand with virtual
proof-of-concepts.
Now that you’ve mapped out innovation
ideas using the Consumer Trend Canvas,
it’s time to start prototyping. In this chapter,
you’ll find proven methods to move your
idea into tangible form and feedback.
Of all the new strategies this one is perhaps the hardest
for many professionals to get their heads around, as it
involves going to real customers, not just focus groups
with products that don’t exist. Yet.
Vaporware is a computing term that refers to products
that are announced but never actually manufactured.
Now we’re obviously not suggesting you intentionally
mislead customers. However, it’s never been easier to
create supporting material for a planned new product
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5.1
or business concept, thereby allowing you to gauge the
reaction before deciding whether to proceed.
One of the quickest and easiest approaches is to invest
$100 into online advertising. Make your pitch. Do people
click on the ad? If not, then perhaps the point of tension
you are resolving is less acute than you expected. Go
one step further. Create a splash page detailing your
upcoming product, and ask people to sign up to be
notified when it launches. Do they?
Alternatively, virtual ‘prototypes’ are almost free to create
and share with the world. Take advantage of this and,
pull together a beautiful video mockup of your new
concept. Once you release the video, you’ll soon discover
whether it excites people, as the two examples opposite
discovered in spectacular fashion.

KUAISOU CHOPSTICKS
‘SMART’ PRODUCT SPOOF FINDS FAVOR WITH CHINESE
CUSTOMERS
Chinese web giant Baidu originally released a video about
its contamination-sensing ‘smart chopsticks’ as an April
Fools prank. However, the video struck a chord with food
safety-conscious Chinese viewers who had been burned
by multiple recent food scandals. Indeed, the video
created so much excitement that the company developed
a working prototype which Robin Li, the company’s CEO,
presented at the Baidu 2014 World Conference. The
Kuaisou chopsticks can test the pH levels of drinking
water and detect recycled cooking oil–known locally as
‘gutter oil’–by monitoring TPMs (total polar materials),
which indicate freshness. Data is relayed to an app for
instant results.
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PHONEBLOKS
DESIGNER’S CONCEPT BECAME A GOOGLE-SUPPORTED
REALITY
Dutch designer Dave Hakkens developed Phonebloks,
a concept for a modular smartphone, which can be
upgraded with new components to reduce e-waste.
After creating a video detailing the concept he turned
to ‘crowdspeaking’ site Thunderclap–where supporters
‘donate’ social media posts, rather than money–aiming
to attract 500 supporters. Within a month, over 900,000
people had pledged their support. Motorola then
announced it would work with the Phoneblok community
on Project Ara, its open-source, modular phone effort. In
early 2015, Google (who acquired the Project Ara team)
announced the modular Spiral 2 phone would be piloted
in Puerto Rico.
CONTINUING THE JOURNEY IN THE REAL WORLD
5.2
HACK DAYS

Use trends to power a

hackathon.

The first recorded ‘hackathon’ took place in 1999, when
10 programmers gathered in Alberta to work on the
OpenBSD operating system. Since then, the practice of
bringing people together for a day, night or weekend to
focus intensely on a specific theme or problem has turned
into a phenomenon, with events hosted by students,
cities, agencies, corporates, nonprofits, governments and
more. The Facebook ‘Like’ button was invented at an
internal hackathon. British Airways organized a hackathon
on a flight from San Francisco to London in 2013. Guns
N’Roses guitarist Slash organized a ‘slashathon’ to ask fans
to think about how he could promote his new album.
perfect fuel (along with coffee and pizza!) for generating
ideas that are focused on solving people’s problems.
Before hosting a trend-driven hackathon, use the
Consumer Trend Radar to determine which trends relate
to the hackathon’s overarching objective. If you already
know the trends you want to work with, you can kick off
the day with a Consumer Trend Canvas ideation session–
as Alfa-Bank did (see opposite page)–before moving onto
the protyping and pitching phases.

Indeed, hackathons are no longer only attended by

software developers, but now often simply aim to bring
people together to ignite creative approaches and fast-
paced problem solving. Consumer trends provide the

64

[CASE STUDY]
ALFA-BANK
42 Agency, a Moscow-based advertising agency and
Alfa-Bank, the largest privately-owned bank in Russia,
organized a 24-hour trend-powered hackathon in 2014
which led to the launch of a novel bank account product.
At the start, participants were presented with several
consumer trends, including CURRENCIES OF CHANGE.
As we saw in the previous section, in this trend people
are incentivized to achieve their personal goals (such as
exercising more) with increasingly innovative, fun, and
ultimately relevant rewards. They then unpacked these
using the Consumer Trend Canvas.
Combining the emerging customer expectations around
relevance and personalization with their knowledge of
Russian consumers, one team developed a concept for
a new type of bank account. They pitched an app-based
system that syncs with fitness trackers to allow customers
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to benefit financially from exercising–by having money
moved into an account with a higher rate of interest.
The idea was launched to the public just one and a half
months after the hackathon, as ‘Alfa Activity.’ Customers
can connect their wearable fitness tracker (such as FitBit,
Jawbone UP or RunKeeper) to their bank account, and
as in the original concept, every step taken sees money
transferred from their checking account into a special
savings account paying a higher interest rate than is
otherwise publicly available.
Alfa-Bank reported that by December 2014 (9 months
after launch), more than 1 million kilometers had been
tracked by Alfa Activity customers, who were saving
at twice the rate of the bank’s average customers, and
exercising 1.5 times more than the average Moscow
resident. A win-win all round!
CONTINUING THE JOURNEY IN THE REAL WORLD
PROTOTYPING
Get Making!
As with business plans, no innovation idea survives its
first contact with people. Building a prototype will bring
your idea to life and allow you to start collecting that all-
important feedback.
There are two types of prototype you should be aiming
to create–even by the end of your ideation session or
hackathon–internal proof-of-concept/demonstrations
or more advanced customer-facing, at-least-semi-
functional products.
Internal concepts are great at building support for your
idea. They can be totally virtual (as basic as mocked-up
diagrams in Keynote), or physically built (use clay, Lego
or cardboard). These early models will obviously require
people to look beyond their current form, but putting
something in people’s hands to tinker and play with will
66
5.3
start their minds opening up to the potential possibilities.
Remember to follow design agency IDEO’s advice when
prototyping, and present colleagues or clients with
multiple prototypes. Having two or more versions spurs
discussion and avoids ‘take-it-or-leave-it’ decisions.
Also, push yourself to think beyond building just
conceptual models. Prototyping can–and for digital
services, increasingly should–also extend to launching
actual customer-facing, functional models which will
test and validate customer demand, the holy grail when
launching new ideas.
Mint Digital, a digital and product development agency
based in London and New York, runs an annual hackathon
and prototyping program they call ‘Four Days to Launch’
(4D2L), where they aim to conceive and birth entire new
 TR EN D - D R I VEN I N N O VATI O N [ 5] FO R YO U R C LA SSROOM

business ventures. By the final day, if not before, teams

need to have an operational business (not just virtual
mockups). At the very least, the new businesses should
have genuine users, with revenues if not actual profits the
real goal!

Indeed, the company has used rapid prototyping and

hackathons to launch a number of side projects-cum-mini
businesses recently. One such project is DeskBeers, a
subscription service delivering local craft beers to office
workers on Friday afternoons. Strong demand saw it spun
out as an independent company, raising approximately
$175,000 in equity crowdfunding in January 2015.

You might not plan to start a whole new venture, but it

is a powerful challenge: could you create–and attract
customers to–a new business in a matter of weeks or
even days?

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CONTINUING THE JOURNEY IN THE REAL WORLD
5.4
PRE-TAIL

Validate and build a

customer base even
before launch.

In 2014, people pledged over $1,000 a minute to yet-
unrealized projects on Kickstarter alone. For customers,
the attractions of crowdfunding platforms are obvious:
a sense of connection with the project’s creator, being
ahead of the mainstream, access to exclusive perks
and the thrill of finding a truly exciting or useful or
relevant product. Indeed, we’ve already touched on how
these crowdfunding ‘pre-tail platforms’ help drive the
Expectation Economy forward (see page 14).
But crowdfunding gets even more interesting when we
look at the opportunities it presents to Trend-Driven
Innovators. Finally, you have a method of assessing
genuine customer demand–by confirming whether
customers will actually go all the way to entering their
credit card details and commit to purchasing your
upcoming product.
That’s not to say that crowdfunding is the easy option.
Far from it. Exposing your product to the crowd
requires a level of transparency and communication
for which you need to prepare meticulously. But done
well, it can be a great route to building an early–and
evangelistic–customer base. That’s why big brands are
now joining garage entrepreneurs in pursuing ‘pre-
tail’ launch strategies. However, existing resources and
bigger budgets should make crowdfunding a strategy
that is more about generating excitement rather than
sharing risk. The idea is to make early purchasers feel like
partners, not suckers.

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[CASE STUDY]
SONY
In November 2014, the minimalist e-ink FES Watch
raised over $23,000 in its three-week campaign on the
Japanese crowdfunding site Makuake (beating its target
of $17,000). ‘Fashion Entertainments’, the project’s creator
then revealed it was in fact part of electronics giant Sony.
The brand announced that it had released the watch
under a pseudonym in order to “to test the real value of
the product”. Following this, Sony then launched its Qrio
Smartlock–a connected lock that enables the owner to
open their door with smartphone and share virtual entry
‘keys’ via social apps–on the same site. The project was
also successfully funded, raising over $200,000. Kunitake
Saso, a Customer Insight Specialist involved with both
projects, explained that “crowdfunding platforms offer
a chance to quickly see how users engage with a new
product and to better understand the potential of the idea
before launching it. This process allows Sony to act like a
nimble entrepreneur.”

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CONTINUING THE JOURNEY IN THE REAL WORLD
5.5
PREMIUM
SERVICE

Stay on top of business and consumer currents, and

be inspired by best-in-class global innovation with a
subscription to our PREMIUM database for yourself,
your department and even, with limited time access,
for your students. Our full database includes 120+
trends, 15,000+ innovation examples, ready-to-go
presentations, team collaboration support, trend and
innovation tools and more.

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“[Trend-Driven Innovation is] some of the smartest

thinking about the swiftest way to get the answers
to what drives consumers in the hypercompetitive,
hyperconnected era where the customer isn’t just
always right, they are ahead of the commercial
producer almost ever time.”

Julia Hobsbawm
— Founder, Editorial Intelligence; Honorary Visiting
Professor in Networking, Cass Business School, London

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CONTINUING THE JOURNEY IN THE REAL WORLD
5.6
TREND-DRIVEN
INNOVATION

Since this guide is an introductory snapshot of what

you can expect from our Trend-Driven Innovation
methodology and book by the same name, we
encourage you to go deeper with our full book. It
will serve as a step-by-step manual for you and your
students to build organizations that matter, products
customers love and campaigns people can’t stop
talking about. As an accredited professor, please let us
know if you’d like to receive a complimentary copy of
“Trend-Driven Innovation”.

Now it’s your turn! Start turning overwhelm into

opportunity in your classroom, and beyond, with our
full Trend-Driven Innovation methodology and book!
We’re here to support you along the way.

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 THANK YOU

Please contact Jennifer@trendwatching.com to go further.

All our best,

Henry Mason, David Mattin, Maxwell Luthy, Delia Dumitrescu, Jennifer Barckley
TrendWatching