Notes on

Engineering Data Analysis

Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

by

Dennis Noel G. de Lara

2023-Feb-06 , 0339H

Silliman University

Philippines

1 Probability 3
1.1Discrete Vs Continuous Variables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2Experiments and Outcomes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.3Sample Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
1.4Events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

1.5Probability Definition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10
1.6Axiomatic Theory of Probability (Kolmogorov) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
1.7Probability Rules . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
1.8Counting Rules Useful in Probability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

Chapter 1

Probability

1.1 Discrete Vs Continuous Variables

Discrete Variables - they take on a finite number of specific values
type/brand of concrete

Continuous Variables - they take on an infinite number of specific values

compressive strength of concrete

1.2 Experiments and Outcomes

An experiment is any activity that will result in some kind of outcome, either discrete outcomes/quantities or
continuous outcomes/quantities.

An outcome is a specific result of an experiment, a random result or consequence of our actions and decisions, or the
activities/procedure done in the experiment.

1. Quantitative/Numerical Outcomes
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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

(a) Discrete Quantities - number of rebars for structural integrity

(b) Continuous Quantities - compressive strength of concrete
2. Qualitative/Textual Outcomes
(a) elastic or inelastic
(b) proportional or nonlinear
Compressive strength experiment. Possible outcomes:

Outcome 1 : O1 : σ = 20 MPa
Outcome 2 : O2 : σ = 25 MPa (1.1)
Outcome 3 : O3 : σ = 23 MPa

Take EM24 - Engineering Data Analysis

Outcome 1 : O1 : Pass
(1.2)
Outcome 2 : O2 : Fail

Number of Outcomes
1. 1?
2. More than 1? At least 2?
3. No. of outcomes that actually happens?
4. Which of the outcomes will happen?
5. Outcomes are CERTAIN?
6. Outcomes are RANDOM?
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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis
Nature of Outcomes
1. Mutually exclusive: Outcomes are “different” from each other. No two outcomes can occur at the same time.
2. Completely exhaustive: All possibilities are considered. Exactly one of the outcomes will occur.

1.3 Sample Space

The sample space S is the list of ALL possible outcomes of an experiment.

Experiment on Compressive Behavior of Reinforced Concrete

Compressive Stress, σ
Compressive Strain, ε
Stress-Strain Curve – sample space

A sample point is an element of the sample space.

Classical example of throwing a balanced die

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} (1.3)
Classical example of throwing a pair of balanced dice

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

S=
{
{1, 1}, {1, 2}, {1, 3}, {1, 4}, {1, 5}, {1, 6},
{2, 1}, {2, 2}, {2, 3}, {2, 4}, {2, 5}, {2, 6},
{3, 1}, {3, 2}, {3, 3}, {3, 4}, {3, 5}, {3, 6}, (1.4)
{4, 1}, {4, 2}, {4, 3}, {4, 4}, {4, 5}, {4, 6},
{5, 1}, {5, 2}, {5, 3}, {5, 4}, {5, 5}, {5, 6},
{6, 1}, {6, 2}, {6, 3}, {6, 4}, {6, 5}, {6, 6},
}

1.4 Events
An event is a combination of outcomes or sample points.

Event A: All those sample points where the σ is proportional to the ε. So we can calculate the modulus of elasticity,
or elastic modulus, or Young’s modulus.

Complementary Events
Event A: All those sample points where the σ is proportional to the ε. So we can calculate the modulus of elasticity,
or elastic modulus, or Young’s modulus.

Event B: All those sample points where the σ is not-proportional to the ε. So we can calculate the modulus of
elasticity, or elastic modulus, or Young’s modulus.

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

A ∪ B = S
(1.5)
event + complementary event = sample space

A ∪ Ac = S (1.6)

B = Ac = complementary event of A (1.7)

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis
Intersection of Events
Outcomes common to both events

A ∩ B = intersection of A and B (1.8)

Union of Events
Combination of all mutually-exclusive outcomes of both events

A ∪ B = union of A and B (1.9)

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

Mutually Exclusive Events

If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then
A∩B=∅ (1.10)
There is nothing in common between A and B.

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

Elastic Region vs Proportional Region – mutually exclusive or not?

1.5 Probability Definition

Probability is a numerical, quantitative measure of the likelihood that an event will occur; degree of chance, certainty
of something occurring.

A large number of experiments was done, N ;

Event A observed to occur n times;
The probability of A is defined as

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

n
P (A) = lim (1.11)
n→∞ N

Practical purposes
n
P (A) = (1.12)
N

Experiment repetition: Compressive strength experiment was done 20 times.

Event A: A measured compressive strength of 25MPa was observed 5 times.
The probability of having a compressive strength of 25MPa is
5
P (A) = = 25% = 0.25 (1.13)
20

1.6 Axiomatic Theory of Probability (Kolmogorov)

1. There corresponds a non-negative probability for an event A.
P (A) ≥ 0 (1.14)

2. The sample space S has a probability of 1.

P (S) = 1 (1.15)

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis
3. For mutually exclusive events A and B, the probability of A or B occurring is
P (A + B) = P (A) + P (B) (1.16)

Therefore, generalizing, for mutually exclusive events A, B, C, · · · the probability of A or B or C or · · · occurring is

P (A + B + C + · · · ) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) + · · · (1.17)

1.7 Probability Rules

Outcomes

O1 = Outcome 1
O2 = Outcome 2
O3 = Outcome 3
..
. (1.18)
Oi = Outcome i
..
.
ON = Outcome N

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

P (O1 ) = probability that outcome 1 will occur

P (O2 ) = probability that outcome 2 will occur
P (O3 ) = probability that outcome 3 will occur
..
. (1.19)
P (Oi ) = probability that outcome i will occur
..
.
P (ON ) = probability that outcome N will occur

N = total number of outcomes (1.20)

1≤i≤N (1.21)

0 ≤ P (Oi ) ≤ 1 (1.22)

P (O1 ) + P (O2 ) + P (O3 ) + · · · + P (Oi ) + · · · + P (ON ) = 1 (1.23)

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

Classical Method of Calculating Probabilities: Each outcome is equally likely as the others. Theoretical

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

1
P (O1 ) =
N
1
P (O2 ) =
N
1
P (O3 ) =
N
.. (1.24)
.
1
P (Oi ) =
N
..
.
1
P (ON ) =
N

Events

E1 = Event 1
E2 = Event 2
E3 = Event 3 (1.25)
..
.

P (E1 ) = probability that event 1 will occur

P (E2 ) = probability that event 2 will occur
P (E3 ) = probability that event 3 will occur (1.26)
..
.

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis
If E1 and E2 are mutually exclusive events, the probability of E1 or E2 occurring is

P (E1 + E2 ) = P (E1 ∪ E2 ) = P (E1 ) + P (E2 ) (1.27)

If E1 , E2 , E3 , · · · are mutually exclusive events, the probability of E1 or E2 or E3 or · · · occurring is

P (E1 + E2 + E3 + · · · ) = P (E1 ∪ E2 ∪ E3 ∪ · · · ) = P (E1 ) + P (E2 ) + P (E3 ) + · · · (1.28)

If E1 and E2 are complementary events, then

P (E1 + E2 ) = P (E1 ∪ E2 ) = P (E1 ) + P (E2 ) = 1 (1.29)

Probability of any event

0 ≤ P (E1 ) ≤ 1
0 ≤ P (E2 ) ≤ 1
0 ≤ P (E3 ) ≤ 1 (1.30)
..
.

Addition Law of Events

P (A ∪ B) = P (A) + P (B) − P (A ∩ B) (1.31)

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

P (A ∪ B ∪ C) = P (A) + P (B) + P (C) − P (A ∩ B) − P (A ∩ C) − P (B ∩ C) + P (A ∩ B ∩ C) (1.32)

Conditional Probability
The probability of event A given that event B has occurred.

P (A ∩ B)
P (A|B) = (1.33)
P (B)
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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis
The probability of event B given that event A has occurred.

P (B ∩ A)
P (B|A) = (1.34)
P (A)

Independence of Events
Events A and B are independent if the probability of A given that B has occurred (conditional probability) is not
affected, or if the probability of B given that A has occurred (conditional probability) is also not affected.
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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

P (A|B) = P (A) (1.35)

OR

P (B|A) = P (B) (1.36)

Otherwise, they are dependent events.

Multiplication Law of Events

Based on Conditional Probability

P (A ∩ B) = P (A|B) · P (B)
(1.37)
P (B ∩ A) = P (B|A) · P (A)

If A and B are independent, then

P (A ∩ B) = P (A) · P (B) (1.38)

Law of Total Probability

P (A) = P (A|B) · P (B) + P (A|Bc ) · P (Bc ) (1.39)

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Notes on
Engineering Data Analysis

1.8 Counting Rules Useful in Probability

Factorial Notation (Gamma Function)
(n)! = n · (n − 1) · (n − 2) · · · 3 · 2 · 1 (1.40)

Multiplication Rule/Fundamental Counting Principle

If task 1 can be done in m1 ways, task 2 in m2 ways, task 3 in m3 ways, and so on, the number of ways to do task 1, 2,
3, · · · would be m1 · m2 · m3

Permutation
The number of permutations (arrangement with ordering) of n objects taken r at a time is
n!
p (n, r)! = (1.41)
(n − r)!
Combination
The number of permutations (arrangement without ordering) of n objects taken r at a time is
n!
c (n, r)! = (1.42)
r! · (n − r)!

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