GlobalCrossAssetFlowsTrackerMarch232023final (00002)

Global Cross Asset Flows Tracker
23 March 2023
Global Economics & Market Strategy
We Remain Overweight Equities at the Global Level

 We maintain our peak US Federal Reserve Bank (FED) Federal Funds Rate Group Chief Economist & Head,
(FFR) forecast of 5.25-5.50% with the balance of risks tilted towards a print Market Research
of 5.25%. We also maintain our view of no FFR cuts in 2023 versus market Dr Sailesh K. Jha
pricing of around 90 bps in cuts and a peak FFR of around 4.91%. We +603 9280 8880
continue to believe US fixed income markets are mis-priced. Dr.jha@rhbgroup.com
 Since we are closing in to the end of the FFR hiking cycle, remain bullish on Associate Research Analyst
Nur Qistina Ahmad Najamuddin
US and global equity markets, expect a 2H23 recovery in US and global
+603 9280 2172
growth, and expect that the dust will settle with regards to negative nur.qistina.ahmad@rhbgroup.com
sentiment towards US and global banks by mid-May, our top ideas are: 1)
sell USDSGD and USDIDR on rallies, with our core view that the USD will Wong Xian Yong
weaken against Asian currencies from 2Q23 to 4Q23. Our views to long +603 9280 2179
USDCNH, USDMYR, and USDKRW on dips haven’t worked and we take these wong.xian.yong@rhbgroup.com
trades out of our basket of trade ideas, 2) long US equities on dips, with US
Banks as proxied by the MXUSOBK Index (MSCI US Banks Index) likely to
post a total return of 10% in 2023, 3) in fixed income, we long US high yield
credit on weakness and in Southeast Asia we view credit as being relatively
more attractive compared to long duration government bonds. At the front
end of the US curve, we maintain our view to be paid and sell UST2YR bonds
at around 3.7% yield, 4) at the global level, we remain overweight equities,
market weight fixed income, and underweight cash, and 5) we prefer
developed markets (DM) over Emerging Markets (EM) on back of our
continued bearish view on China’s equity market.
 While it’s true that credit conditions are tightening in the US and has been
the case since 2Q22, we don’t anticipate the pace of tightening to accelerate
significantly for the remainder of 2023 since we don’t expect the US and
global banking system to face systemic risks this year. In our view, as
opposed to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) period, liquidity measures
introduced by the US Treasury, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
(FDIC), and FED recently are flowing thru the US banking system nicely, the
central bank’s discount window is functioning properly, the US repo and
money markets are operating normally, and stress in derivatives markets are
well contained. The bottom line is that the “plumbing” in the US banking
sector and broad financial markets are channelling liquidity to where it’s
needed the most in the economy and capital markets. In the GFC, the
plumbing was broken and this ultimately manifested itself in a global crisis.
If push comes to shove and this isn’t our base case, eg if stress in the US
and global banking system does turn out to be much worse than what we or
the US authorities expect, the policy response will be that all banking
deposits will be fully insured temporarily (a policy response that Treasury
Secretary Janet Yellen is currently denying), the FED will start cutting the
FFR, and bilateral swap lines with major global central banks will be
enlarged. The next stress we are monitoring in global markets are CoCos
and Additional Tier1 bonds issued by Asian banks.
 As expected by ourselves and the Bloomberg consensus, the FED raised the
FFR by 25 bps to 4.75-5.00%. The guidance of the FED remains data
dependent and predicated on the path of tightening credit conditions. The
main take-aways from Chairman Powell’s press conference are: 1) the
central bank doesn’t know how credit conditions will evolve and the impact
on the economy and financial markets since US banking system event risks
are very recent.
See important disclosures at the end of this report

Market Dateline / PP 19489/05/2019 (035080) 1
Global Economics & Market Strategy Global Cross Asset Flows Tracker
23 March 2023
 In the summary of economic projections, it’s most likely that the full extent of the impact of recent developments
in the US banking sector haven’t been fully incorporated, 2) following from item 1), this is the reason why the
wording “ongoing FFR increases are necessary” in the February 2 FOMC statement was changed to “may
require some additional policy measures” in today’s policy statement, 3) credit conditions have tightened more
than traditional measures suggest since these measures only contain rates and equities type variables and
don’t capture lending conditions, 4) tightening of credit conditions can substitute for rate hikes, 5) if inflation
and labour market conditions stay elevated, FFR hikes beyond what is currently indicated in the central bank’s
forecasts maybe needed, 6) no FFR cuts in 2023, 7) non-housing services component of core PCE momentum,
not much progress has been made, while goods inflation downward momentum slower than anticipated, and
housing rental prices should fall much faster based on recent observations of rental contracts, 8) quantitative
tightening (QT) policy is still intact, and 9) broadly speaking and summarizing his statements on the US banking
sector, risk of contagion from recent stress in the sector to other banks and financial markets is contained. This
is because Silicon Valley Bank (SPV) is a special case where in a large portion of deposits were uninsured and
had significant unhedged long duration positions which is a problem in a rising rates environment. This resulted
in the bank run at SPV being much faster compared to other US bank runs observed in history.
 In our view, US labour market conditions will remain resilient in 2Q23 and potentially continue to offset some of
impact on US private consumption GDP of the tightening of credit conditions in the US banking system which
has been ongoing since 2Q22 and into January 2023. Our bottoms up proprietary indicators for US domestic
demand dated March 14 suggests a mixed picture, with our conclusion being that the US economy is slowing
and will do so for much of 1H23 but will not collapse.
 Will this pace of slowing of US domestic demand conditions be enough to slow the momentum of the services
ex-housing sub-component of core PCE inflation significantly heading into the May 4 FED FOMC meeting? At
this point it doesn’t seem like it. Next week, US February core PCE inflation data will be released on March 31,
where we expect an upside surprise. In addition, watch March 25 initial jobless claims and third estimate of 4Q22
GDP on March 30, February pending home sales on March 29, and March University of Michigan sentiment
indices on March 31. Also watch FED Barkin’s speech on March 31. In the EU, watch March CPI on the 31 st. In
China, watch the official March PMI on the 31st.

23 March 2023
Figure 1: YTD 2023 total return, DM equities outperforming EM equities and bonds are under-performing
YTD 2023 Total return (%) across major indices and securities
Nasdaq 11.50
DAX 10.14
MSCI Korea 6.23
UST 10YR 3.67
MSCI Singapore 3.66
MSCI World 3.21
THB 10YR 2.91
China High Yield Bond 2.81
FTSE 2.80
S&P 500 2.54
US High Grade Credit 2.49
Convertibles 2.41
US High Yield Bond 2.16
USDKRW 1.90
IDR 10YR 1.82
MGS 10YR 1.74
MXMS 1.57
EM Bonds 1.28
China 5YR 1.13
SGD 10YR 0.95
MSCI Indonesia 0.82
EURUSD 0.71
MSCI EMI 0.53
USDJPY 0.52
USDMYR 0.36
EM FX 0.00
MSCI China -0.12
USDTHB -0.73
DXY -1.14
LMEX -1.48
USDCNH -1.51
USDSGD -1.74
USDINR -1.75
S&P/ASX 200 -2.42
USDIDR -2.97
Dow Jones -3.37
MSCI Thailand -4.29
MSCI Malaysia -6.80
MSCI India -7.87
MSCI Brazil -8.94
Brent Oil -9.41
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Above figures are on year-to-date total return from 3 Jan 2023 to 22 Mar 2023

23 March 2023
Figure 2: FED Summary of Economic Projections, core PCE inflation forecasts revised up for 2023
Source: US Federal Reserve Bank (FED), RHB Economics & Market Strategy.

23 March 2023
Figure 3: FED dot plot broadly unchanged compared to December 2022 FOMC meeting
Source: US Federal Reserve Bank (FED), RHB Economics & Market Strategy.

23 March 2023
Figure 4: US banks credit conditions had already started to deteriorating since 2Q22 and the impact on US private
consumption GDP so far has been more limited compared to the 2015-2018 hiking cycle due to robust labour market
conditions, which we think will remain the case for the better part of 2023
% Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Reporting Increased Willingness to Make Consumer Installment %QoQ
60.0 Loans 2.5
US Private Consumption Expenditure (RHS)
2.0
40.0
1.5
20.0
1.0
0.0 0.5
0.0
-20.0
-0.5
-40.0
-1.0
-60.0 -1.5
1982Q3
1983Q2
1984Q1
1984Q4
1985Q3
1986Q2
1987Q1
1987Q4
1988Q3
1989Q2
1990Q1
1990Q4
1991Q3
1992Q2
1993Q1
1993Q4
1994Q3
1995Q2
1996Q1
1996Q4
1997Q3
1998Q2
1999Q1
1999Q4
2000Q3
2001Q2
2002Q1
2002Q4
2003Q3
2004Q2
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
2013Q2
2014Q1
2014Q4
2015Q3
2016Q2
2017Q1
2017Q4
2018Q3
2019Q2
2020Q1
2020Q4
2021Q3
2022Q2
2023Q1
Source: US Federal Reserve Bank (FED), US Senior Loan Officer Survey, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is 1Q23
Figure 5: Collapse of market pricing of peak FFR is to Figure 6: Liquidity conditions in US banking sector well
aggresive supported by FED balance sheet expansion and…
% Market Pricing of Terminal FED FFR Effective Rate USD mn US FED Balance Sheet
5.8 9.0
5.6 8.9
5.4 8.8
5.2
8.7
5.0
8.6
4.8
8.5
4.6
4.4 8.4
4.2 8.3
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Feb-23
Mar-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
May-22
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jan-23
Nov-22
Oct-22
Feb-23
Feb-23
Feb-23
Feb-23
Jan-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Mar-23
Jan-23
Jan-23
Jan-23
Jan-23
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 15
Figure 8: UST market volatility (MOVE Index) still high and

Figure 7: …discount window
needs to come down to signal that markets are stabilizing
USD bn US FED discount window lending Index MOVE Index

160 300
140
250
120
200
100
80 150
60 100
40
50
20
0 0
Sep-00
Sep-19
Jul-14
Jun-02
Mar-04
Aug-07
Feb-11
Jun-21
Mar-23
May-09
Apr-16
Jan-99
Nov-05
Jan-18
Oct-12
Sep-07
Sep-13
Sep-19
Jul-08
Jul-14
Jul-20
Jun-09
Feb-11
Jun-15
Feb-17
Jun-21
Feb-23
Apr-10
Jan-12
Apr-16
Apr-22
Jan-06
Nov-06
Nov-12
Jan-18
Nov-18

23 March 2023
Figure 9: Rapid rise in gold price signalling low risk Figure 10: Momentum of oil and food prices well behaved,
appetite good for the global inflation outlook
$/Oz Gold Price Index Brent Oil Price Index
200 Global Food Price Index 6000
2500
London Metals Exchange Index (RHS)
5000
2000 150
4000
1500
100 3000
1000
2000
50
500 1000
0 0 0
Mar-04
Sep-00
Jul-14
Jun-02
Aug-07
Feb-11
Sep-19
Jun-21
Mar-23
May-09
Apr-16
Jan-99
Nov-05
Jan-18
Oct-12
Sep-11
Sep-19
Jul-10
Mar-08
Dec-13
Feb-15
Jun-17
Aug-18
Mar-23
May-09
Apr-16
Jan-07
Nov-20
Jan-22
Oct-12
Figure 11: MSCI US Banks Index has collapsed and is pricing in a crisis, which we don’t think is the case
Index MSCI US Banks Index

160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
Sep-14
Sep-22
Dec-10
Mar-14
Jul-17
Dec-18
Jun-10
Jun-11
Mar-15
Aug-15
Feb-16
Aug-16
Jun-18
Jun-19
Mar-22
Mar-23
May-12
Apr-13
May-20
Apr-21
Jan-10
Nov-11
Jan-17
Jan-18
Nov-19
Oct-12
Oct-13
Oct-20
Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 22
Figure 12: RHB government bond yield forecasts versus Bloomberg consensus forecasts
RHB Government Bond Yield Forecasts Bloomberg Consensus

10YR 10YR
Government 1H22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1H23F 2H23F Government 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24
Bond Bond
United States 2.44 2.91 3.10 3.82 3.60 – 4.10 3.00 - 3.50 United States 3.68 3.66 3.60 3.48 3.38
Malaysia 3.96 4.23 4.06 4.27 3.40 – 3.80 3.40 – 3.80 Malaysia 3.96 3.98 3.89 3.79 4.10
Singapore 2.33 2.72 2.91 3.24 2.80 - 3.00 2.80 - 3.00 Singapore 3.26 3.30 3.19 3.12 3.06
Indonesia 6.82 7.11 7.20 7.14 6.30 – 6.70 6.30 - 6.70 Indonesia 6.92 6.93 6.97 6.91 6.82
Thailand 2.98 2.86 2.60 2.95 2.50 – 2.70 2.50 - 2.70 Thailand 2.57 2.53 2.48 2.41 2.49
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Above figures are on end of period basis.

23 March 2023
Figure 13: RHB USD/Asia 1Q23 forecasts are well above Bloomberg consensus forecasts
RHB FX Forecasts Bloomberg Consensus

AxJ FX 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 2024 AxJ FX 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 2024
CNH 7.20-7.30 7.00-7.10 6.80-6.90 7.00-7.20 CNH 6.800 6.700 6.6500 6.4800
IDR 15,000-15,500 15,000 – 15,500 15,000 - 15,500 15,000 - 16,000 IDR 15,050 15,000 14,875 14,500
MYR 4.35-4.45 4.30-4.40 4.20-4.30 4.25-4.35 MYR 4.3900 4.300 4.2400 4.1200
SGD 1.30-1.35 1.30-1.35 1.30-1.35 1.25-1.30 SGD 1.3300 1.3200 1.3100 1.300
THB 35.00 - 36.00 34.50 - 35.50 33.50 - 34.50 30.00 - 34.00 THB 34.00 34.00 33.30 32.80
VND 23,000-23,500 22,500-23,000 22,500-23,000 21,500-23,500 VND 23,600 23,500 23,400 23,000
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Above figures are on end of period basis.
Note: We have revised our 2Q23 USDIDR forecast to 15,000-15,500 from 15,500-16,000.
Figure 14: Global growth data starting to surprise on the upside and inflation surprises on the upside recently
Index Citi Inflation Surprise Index- Global Citi Economic Surprise Index- Global (RHS) Index
100 150
80 100
60
50
40
0
20
-50
0
-20 -100
-40 -150
Jul-08
Dec-08
Sep-12
Jul-13
Dec-13
Sep-17
Jul-18
Dec-18
Sep-22
Feb-08
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jun-11
Feb-13
Mar-15
Aug-15
Jun-16
Feb-18
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jun-21
Feb-23
May-09
May-14
May-19
Apr-12
Oct-09
Jan-11
Nov-11
Oct-14
Jan-16
Nov-16
Apr-17
Jan-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Oct-19
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Monthly data with last data point is Feb 2023
Figure 15: Markets pricing in peak FFR of around 4.91% is

Figure 16: EM bond markets looking stable
too low and significant rate cuts in 2023 too aggresive
(bps) UST 10YR Yield Index

6.0 100
Bloomberg EM USD Aggregate Total Return
Index (inverted, RHS) 300
5.0
500
4.0
700
3.0
900
2.0
1100
1.0 1300
0.0 1500
Dec-19
Jul-14
Feb-09
Mar-10
Jun-13
Aug-15
Sep-16
Feb-22
Mar-23
Apr-11
May-12
Jan-07
Jan-08
Nov-18
Jan-21
Oct-17

23 March 2023
Figure 18: …bonds will under-perform equities on a relative

Figure 17: Global liquidity down in near-term, implies…
basis
Global Money Supply Index
Index Index Index Global Money Supply Index Index
110 Bloomberg Global Investment Grade 600
MSCI World Index (RHS)
Total Return Index (RHS) 110 3300
100 105 3100
550 2900
90 100
2700
95
80 500 2500
90
2300
70 85
2100
450 80 1900
60
75 1700
50 400 70 1500
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Aug-19
Jun-20
Feb-21
Aug-22
Aug-19
Jun-20
Feb-21
May-21
Aug-22
Jan-19
Mar-20
May-21
Mar-23
Nov-19
Mar-20
Mar-23
Apr-19
Nov-19
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-19
Apr-19
Apr-22
Nov-22
Oct-20
Oct-20
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 22
Figure 19: EM equities likely to continue to under-perform

Figure 20: Carry returns good for IDR and SGD against USD
the US
500 MSCI Emerging Markets Index

450 S&P 500 Index
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Sep-11
Jun-12
Feb-14
Dec-14
Aug-16
Jun-17
Sep-20
Jul-21
May-22
Mar-18
Mar-23
Jan-10
Nov-10
Apr-13
Jan-19
Nov-19
Oct-15
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. YTD from 3 Jan 2023 to
22 Mar 2023
Figure 21: MGS10YR not following UST10YR yields

Figure 22: US short-term inflation expectations up
recently
UST 10 YR YIELD (%) %

4.50 5.00 UST 10YR Yield US Breakeven 2 Years
6.0
MGS 10 YR YIELD (%) (RHS)
4.00
3.50 4.00 4.0
3.00 2.0
3.00
2.50
0.0
2.00
2.00
1.50 -2.0
1.00 1.00 -4.0
0.50
0.00 0.00 -6.0
Dec-06
Jul-09
Aug-08
Mar-11
Dec-12
Aug-14
Jun-15
Mar-17
Aug-20
Jun-21
Mar-23
May-10
May-16
Apr-22
Jan-06
Jan-12
Jan-18
Nov-18
Oct-19
Oct-07
Oct-13
Aug-21
Jul-22
Dec-22
Aug-20
Feb-21
Apr-22
Mar-23
May-21
Jan-22
Nov-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last
data point is Mar 22

23 March 2023
Figure 23: Upside surprises in US economic data, hence

Figure 24: Real money accounts positioning in US long
demand side pressures will keep US core CPI sticky in the
term sovereign bonds stalling
next few months
% Index USD mn Fund Flows to US Long term government % AUM
US Breakeven 2 Years
6.0 US Economics Surprise Index (RHS) 300 1400 bonds (USD mn) 2.00
Fund Flows to US long term government
200 bonds (% of AUM) (RHS) 1.50
4.0
900
100
2.0 1.00
0
0.0 400 0.50
-100
-2.0 0.00
-200
-100
-4.0 -300 -0.50
-6.0 -400 -600 -1.00
Dec-06
Jul-09
Aug-08
Mar-11
Dec-12
Aug-14
Jun-15
Mar-17
Aug-20
Jun-21
Mar-23
May-10
May-16
Nov-18
Apr-22
Jan-06
Jan-12
Jan-18
Oct-07
Oct-13
Oct-19
Sep-21
Sep-22
Jul-21
Jul-22
Mar-23
Mar-21
May-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last Source: EPFR, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 20
data point is Mar 22
Figure 26: Falling flows to DM and rising flows to EM equity

Figure 25: Falling flows to DM and EM bond funds
funds
% of AUM DM Bond Flow EM Bond Flow % of AUM

DM Equity Flow EM Equity Flow
0.30% 0.25%
0.20%
0.20%
0.15%
0.10% 0.10%
0.00% 0.05%
-0.10% 0.00%
-0.20% -0.05%
-0.10%
-0.30%
-0.15%
-0.40% -0.20%
-0.50% -0.25%
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Jan-22
Apr-22
May-22
Apr-22
May-22
Nov-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Jan-22
Jan-23
Oct-22
Oct-22
Source: EPFR, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 20 Source: EPFR, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 20
Figure 27: Positioning up again in China equities and… Figure 28: … bond funds. Drop will come soon
% of AUM EM ex-China Equity Flow % of AUM EM ex-China Bond Flow

% of AUM % of AUM
0.20% China Equity Flow (RHS) 0.80% 0.40% 2.00%
China Bond Flow (RHS)
0.60% 0.30% 1.50%
0.15%
0.20% 1.00%
0.10% 0.40%
0.10% 0.50%
0.20%
0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
0.00%
0.00% -0.10% -0.50%
-0.20% -0.20% -1.00%
-0.05% -0.40% -0.30% -1.50%
-0.10% -0.60% -0.40% -2.00%
-0.15% -0.80% -0.50% -2.50%
Sep-22
Dec-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-22
Jul-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jan-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jan-23
Jan-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jan-23
Oct-22
Nov-22
Nov-22
Oct-22
Source: EPFR, RHB Economics and Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 20 Source: EPFR, RHB Economics and Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 20

23 March 2023
Figure 30: …outlook for growth with a V-shaped recovery

Figure 29: EM equities and bonds are trading on…
being priced in for China, which will not materialize
%YoY MSCI Emerging Markets Index %YoY %YoY J.P. Morgan USD Emerging Markets High %YoY
Forecast
Yield Bond Index
Forecast
150.00 MSCI China Index 20.00
30 RHB China LEI (RHS) 10.00
RHB China LEI (RHS)
100.00 20
15.00 8.00
50.00 10
6.00
10.00 0
0.00 4.00
-10
5.00
-50.00 2.00
-20
-100.00 0.00 -30 0.00
Dec-14
Sep-15
Dec-17
Sep-18
Dec-20
Sep-21
Jun-13
Jun-16
Mar-17
Jun-19
Jun-22
Mar-14
Mar-20
Mar-23
Dec-08
Sep-09
Dec-11
Sep-12
Dec-14
Sep-15
Dec-17
Sep-18
Dec-20
Sep-21
Jun-07
Mar-08
Jun-10
Mar-11
Jun-13
Mar-14
Jun-16
Mar-17
Jun-19
Mar-20
Jun-22
Mar-23
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics and Market Strategy. Last actual data point Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics and Market Strategy. Last actual data point
is 4Q2022 and forecasted value is at 1Q2023. is 4Q2022 and forecasted value is at 1Q2023.
Figure 31: DXY Index & UST 2s10s spreads relationship Figure 32: Technical picture for USD suggests greenback
unclear weakness in the near-term
70 300 118.00 DXY Index

DXY (Inverted Scale) Upper Bollinger Band = 106.9641
75 250 Lower Bollinger Band = 101.3118
UST 10vs2 Spread (bps) (RHS) 113.00
80 200
85 150
108.00
90 100
95 50 103.00
100 0
105 -50 98.00
110 -100
93.00
115 -150
Sep-12
Dec-17
Jul-20
Aug-16
Mar-23
May-15
Jan-14
Apr-19
Nov-21
88.00
Nov-19 Jul-21 Mar-23
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy,last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 22
Figure 34: Markets are long USDMYR, but this could change
Figure 33: USDMYR upward momentum stalling
in 2Q23
2.00
4.900 USDMYR
IDR SGD MYR +3 Long USD
Upper Bollinger Band = 4.6412 1.50
Lower Bollinger Band = 4.2238 1.00
4.700
0.50
4.500 0.00
-0.50
4.300
-1.00
-1.50
4.100
-2.00 -3 Short USD
Jul-18
Feb-18
Dec-18
Mar-20
Aug-20
Jun-21
Sep-22
Feb-23
May-19
Apr-22
Jan-21
Nov-21
Oct-19
3.900
Nov-19 Jul-21 Mar-23
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 22 Source: Refinitiv, BNM, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Monthly data with last
data point is Mar 9

23 March 2023
Figure 35: MSCI World near-term correction underway, sustained recovery from some time in April onwards
Index MSCI World Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index(RHS) Index
3500 1500
1400
3000
1300
1200
2500
1100
2000 1000
900
1500
800
700
1000
600
500 500
Jul-22
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Mar-20
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Mar-19
May-19
May-20
Mar-21
May-21
Mar-22
May-22
Mar-23
Nov-22
Jan-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Figure 36: Inflows to small and mid-cap equity funds Figure 37: USD down partially causing Nasdaq Index to rise
4-Week Average (% of AUM) CCMP Nasdaq Composite Index (Inverted Scale)

Small Cap, Value 0.16% 6,000 DXY Index (RHS) 118.00
Mid Cap, Blend 0.11%
8,000 Inverse 113.00
Small Cap, Blend 0.10% relationship
10,000 working 108.00
Mid Cap, Value 0.05%
Large Cap, Value 0.01% 12,000 103.00
Large Cap, Growth -0.03% 14,000 98.00

Large Cap, Blend -0.04%
16,000 93.00
Small Cap, Growth -0.06%
18,000 88.00
Mid Cap, Growth -0.08%
Jan-19 May-20 Oct-21 Mar-23
Source: EPFR, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 15 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 22
Figure 38: Investor sentiment on global growth momentum Figure 39: US inventory to shipment ratio rising a bit, which
improving and supportive of risky assets in medium term implies global IP moderation in 1H23
50 Sentic Global Economic Sentiment Index, 4.00 US Manufacturers Inventories to Shipment Ratio (%), 3MMA
6 month ahead expectation, 3MMA (RHS)
30 Global IP,SA %MoM, 3MMA (RHS) Global IP % YoY
2.00 20.00 1.10
15.00
10 1.30
10.00
0.00
5.00 1.50
-10
0.00 1.70
-2.00 -5.00
-30
1.90
-10.00
-50 -4.00 -15.00 2.10
Jul-13
Feb-09
Aug-12
Feb-16
Dec-16
Sep-18
Aug-19
Jun-20
Mar-22
May-07
Apr-08
May-14
Apr-15
May-21
Jan-10
Nov-10
Nov-17
Jan-23
Oct-11
Dec-12
Dec-21
Jun-17
Jul-08
Sep-19
Jun-07
Feb-14
Mar-15
Aug-09
May-16
Aug-18
Jan-23
Oct-10
Nov-11
Oct-20
Source: Bloomberg, CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last
last data point is Feb 2023 for Sentic Global Economic Sentiment Index and Dec data point Jan 2023 for US Manufacturers Inventories to Shipment Ratio and Dec
2022 for Global IP 2022 for Global IP

23 March 2023
Figure 40: Global money supply falling… Figure 41: …implies global IP slowing in 1H23, not collapse
%MoM 3MMA %MoM 3MMA

Global Money Supply Index %MoM %MoM
4.0 4.0 3MMA sa Global IP Brent oil price (RHS) 3MMA sa
Global IP (RHS)
3.0 3.0 4.0 30
2.0 3.0 20
2.0
1.0 2.0 10
1.0 1.0
0.0 0
0.0 0.0
-1.0 -10
-1.0 -1.0
-2.0 -2.0 -20
-2.0 -3.0 -3.0 -30
-3.0 -4.0 -4.0 -40
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Feb-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
May-22
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Nov-22
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Dec-13
Dec-18
Aug-20
Aug-10
Jun-11
Feb-13
Aug-15
Jun-16
Feb-18
Jun-21
Feb-23
Mar-07
Jan-08
Nov-08
Apr-12
Apr-17
Apr-22
Oct-09
Oct-14
Oct-19
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last
data point is Feb 2023 for Global Money Supply Index and Dec 2022 for Global IP data point is Feb 2023 for Brent oil price and Dec 2022 for Global IP
Figure 42: US micro level demand side indicators… Figure 43: …mixed as of March 14, 2023…
Oregon Truck Stops Activity 2021 Iowa Truck Stops Activity 2021
Oregon Truck Stops Activity 2022 Iowa Truck Stops Activity 2022
40K 90K Iowa Truck Stops Activity 2023
Oregon Truck Stops Activity 2023
38K 80K
70K
36K
60K
34K
50K
32K
40K
30K 30K
Feb
Mar
May
Sep
Nov
Apr
Jun
Aug
Jul
Oct
Jan
Dec
Feb
May
Sep
Mar
Jul
Jun
Aug
Oct
Nov
Jan
Apr
Dec
Source: SpaceKnow, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 14 Source: SpaceKnow, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 14
Figure 44: … across… Figure 45: …major geographies
30K Nevada Truck Stops Activity 2021 South Carolina Truck Stops Activity 2021
Nevada Truck Stops Activity 2022 7K South Carolina Truck Stops Activity 2022
Nevada Truck Stops Activity 2023 South Carolina Truck Stops Activity 2023
6K
25K
5K
4K
20K
3K
15K 2K
1K
10K 0K
Feb
May
Sep
Mar
Jun
Jan
Apr
Jul
Aug
Oct
Nov
Dec
Feb
May
Jun
Mar
Sep
Aug
Jul
Oct
Nov
Jan
Apr
Dec
Source:SpaceKnow, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 14 Source: SpaceKnow, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 14

23 March 2023
Figure 47: …which implies Asian exports slow-down could

Figure 46: US consumer spending stabilizing…
abate in the next few months
US Retail Sales ex-Auto, sa %MoM 3MMA US Retail Sales ex-Auto, sa %MoM 3MMA
8 8 8 30
Asia ex-China exports, sa %MoM 3MMA (RHS) China Exports, sa %MoM 3MMA (RHS) 25
6 6 6
20
4 4
4 15
2 2
2 10
0 0
5
-2 -2 0 0
-4 -4 -5
-2
-6 -6 -10
-8 -8 -4
-15
-10 -10 -6 -20
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2023
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2023
Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Monthly data with last data Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Monthly data with last data
point is Feb 2023 for US Retail Sales ex-Auto and Nov 2022 for Asia ex-China point is Feb 2023 for US Retail Sales ex-Auto and Dec 2022 for China Exports
exports
Figure 48: With the exception of Korea… Figure 49: …PMI new export orders well behaved..
3MMA 3MMA China: PMI New Orders

120 South Korea: PMI New Orders 65 China: PMI New Export Orders
110 60
100 55
90 50
45
80
40
70
35
60
30
50 25
40 20
Feb-03
Jun-04
Feb-07
Jun-08
Feb-11
Jun-12
Feb-15
Jun-16
Feb-19
Jun-20
Feb-23
Oct-05
Oct-09
Oct-13
Oct-17
Oct-21
Jul-06
Sep-16
Jul-20
Mar-05
Aug-11
Mar-14
Jun-15
Feb-23
May-10
Jan-09
Nov-12
Jan-18
Apr-19
Oct-07
Oct-21
Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last data Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last data point
point is Feb 2023 is Feb 2023
Figure 50: …in major exporting economies in Asia ex- Figure 51: …with Taiwan showing some modest
Japan… improvement recently
3MMA Singapore: PMI New Orders 3MMA Taiwan: PMI New Orders
75 80 Taiwan: PMI New Export Orders
70 Singapore: PMI New Export Orders
70
65
60 60
55
50
50
45 40
40
30
35
30 20
Dec-21
Aug-99
Sep-06
Sep-13
Jul-05
Jul-12
Mar-03
Mar-10
Mar-17
Aug-19
Feb-23
May-04
May-11
May-18
Nov-00
Jan-02
Nov-07
Jan-09
Nov-14
Jan-16
Oct-20
Sep-12
Jul-13
Feb-16
Dec-16
Sep-18
Jul-19
Jun-20
Feb-22
May-14
Apr-15
Apr-21
Nov-17
Jan-23
Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last data Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last data point
point is Feb 2023 is Feb 2023

23 March 2023
Figure 53: …and some core services component still

Figure 52: US Core PCE inflation momentum picking up…
elevated, hence FED needs to keep on hiking
3MMA US PCE Core Price Index MoM SA %YoY US Core PCE Inflation
0.6
10 Core Goods
0.5
Core services less housing
0.4 Housing Services
0.3
5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
-0.1
-0.2
Sep-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Mar-18
May-18
Mar-19
May-19
Mar-20
May-20
Mar-21
May-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
-5
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last data point
data point is Jan 2023 is Jan 2023
Figure 54: US Core CPI inflation momentum picking up… Figure 55:…with housing component remaining elevated
3MMA %MoM %MoM

US CPI Urban Consumers Core MoM SA US Core CPI Inflation 3MMA
0.8 3MMA
1.5 Housing Food & Beverages 5.0
0.6 Medical Care Transport (RHS)
3.0
0.4 1.0
0.2 1.0
0.5
0.0 -1.0
-0.2 0.0
-3.0
-0.4 -0.5 -5.0
Feb-23
Feb-19
Feb-20
Feb-21
May-21
Feb-22
Mar-18
May-18
Aug-18
May-19
Aug-19
May-20
Aug-20
Aug-21
May-22
Aug-22
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Sep-13
Dec-10
Jul-16
Feb-22
Aug-14
Aug-15
Jun-17
Mar-20
Mar-21
Jan-10
May-18
Apr-19
Jan-23
Nov-11
Oct-12
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last Source: CEIC, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last data point
data point is Feb 2023 is Feb 2023
Figure 56: US supply chain congestions momentum up implies US core PCE inflation momentum up in near-term
%MoM
US Port-Inland Container Ratio US PCE Core Price Index MoM SA (RHS) %MoM
3MMA
3MMA
4.0 0.6
3.0 0.5
2.0 0.4
0.3
1.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
-1.0 0
-2.0 -0.1
-3.0 -0.2
Jul-18
Jul-17
Sep-17
Sep-18
Jul-19
Sep-19
Jul-20
Sep-20
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Mar-17
May-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
May-18
May-19
May-20
Nov-20
May-21
Jan-22
May-22
Jan-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Jan-21
Nov-21
Nov-22
Jan-23
Source: Bloomberg, SpaceKnow. RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Monthly data with last data point is Jan 2023 for US PCE Core Price Index and Mar 14 for US Port-
Inland Container Ratio

23 March 2023
Figure 58: …and low activity at ports declining as well,

Figure 57: The good news is that US supply chain suggests supply side inflation pressures receding on a
congestions easing on a trend basis… trend basis, but some short-term congestions likely as
demand remains resilient
3.1 US Port-Inland Container Ratio US Port Container Low Activity Index

45
Threshold
3.0 40
2.9 35
2.8 30
2.7 25
20
2.6
15
2.5
10
2.4 5
2.3 0
Sep-20
Sep-21
Jul-18
Jun-17
Feb-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Feb-22
Jun-22
Mar-23
Apr-20
May-21
Jan-17
Nov-18
Jan-21
Oct-17
Oct-22
Feb-21
Feb-17
Aug-17
Feb-18
Aug-18
Feb-19
Aug-19
Feb-20
Aug-20
Aug-21
Feb-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Figure 59: Momentum of core CPI inflation in Southeast

Figure 60: … Malaysia supply chain congestion easing
Asia coming down, on average, with…
%MoM 205M Malaysia Port Container Level Index
Core CPI: Malaysia Core CPI: Singapore
3MMA sa High Congestion Threshold
0.7 Core CPI: Indonesia Core CPI: Thailand 200M
0.6
0.5 195M
0.4
0.3 190M
0.2
185M
0.1
0.0 180M
-0.1
-0.2 175M
Jun-19
Aug-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Apr-19
Apr-20
Apr-21
Apr-22
Oct-19
Oct-20
Oct-21
Oct-22
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-17
Mar-18
Jul-18
Jul-21
Mar-22
Jul-22
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-20
Mar-21
Mar-23
Nov-18
Nov-17
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
Nov-22
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, Monthly data with last Source: SpaceKnow, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 17
data point as at Feb 2023 for Indonesia, Thailand and Singapore. Jan 2023 for
Malaysia.
Figure 62: …which induces some supply chain congestions

Figure 61: Economic activity in China still below trend…
globally
0.15 0.15
RHB China Industrial Harbor Change Activity RHB China Inland Containers Level Index
0.10 Index 0.10
0.05
0.05
0.00
0.00
-0.05
-0.05
-0.10
-0.10 -0.15
-0.15 -0.20
-0.20 -0.25
Sep-20
Sep-21
Sep-22
Dec-19
Mar-20
Jun-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-18
Feb-17
Aug-17
Sep-19
Aug-20
Jun-21
Mar-20
Mar-23
Jan-18
Nov-18
Apr-19
Jan-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Oct-22

23 March 2023
Figure 63: Malaysia-capital outflows from equity market… Figure 64: …and outflows from bond funds recently
USD mn USD mn RHB Propriety Indicator: Net Capital Flows to

Malaysia Net Equity Flows Malaysian Bond Market, 4 week moving average
150 40.00
30.00
100
20.00
50 10.00
0 0.00
-10.00
-50
-20.00
-100
-30.00
-150 -40.00
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-21
Dec-22
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-21
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-21
May-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Jan-21
May-21
Jan-22
May-22
Jan-23
Jan-21
Apr-22
Nov-21
Nov-22
Nov-21
Oct-22
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy,last data point is Mar 22 Source: EPFR, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 15
Figure 65: Singapore- flows to equity funds slowing… Figure 66: …and net outflows from bond funds
USD mn USD mn RHB Indicator for Net Foreign Flows to Singapore

RHB Indicator for Net Foreign Flows to Singapore
8.00 18 Bond Funds
Equity Funds
6.00 13
4.00 8
2.00
3
0.00
-2
-2.00
-7
-4.00
-6.00 -12
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-21
Jun-21
Jun-22
Feb-23
Mar-21
May-21
Aug-21
Mar-22
May-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Jan-21
Apr-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Sep-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Mar-23
May-21
Jan-21
Oct-22
Source: EPFR, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 20 Source: EPFR, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 20
Figure 67: Indonesia- net outflows from equities… Figure 68: …and inflows to bond funds
USD mn Indonesia Net Equity Flows USD mn Indonesia Net Bond Flows
400
400
200
200
0
0
-200
-200
-400
-600 -400
-800 -600
-1000 -800
Sep-21
Sep-22
Jul-21
Jul-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
May-21
May-22
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Mar-21
May-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy,last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 22

23 March 2023
Figure 69: Thailand-outflows from equities and… Figure 70: …inflows to bond market
USD mn Thailand Net Equity Flows USD mn Thailand Net Bond Flows
500 800
400
600
300
200 400
100 200
0 0
-100
-200
-200
-300 -400
-400 -600
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
Mar-21
Mar-22
Mar-23
May-21
May-22
May-21
May-22
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Jan-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy,last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Mar 22
Momentum of Flows to Bond Funds: Mixed Picture

Figure 71: Outflows from Global bond funds and… Figure 72: …inflows to US bond funds
USD (mn) Global Bond Fund Flow USD (mn) USA Bond Fund Flow
6000 20000
4000 15000
2000 10000
0 5000
-2000 0
-4000 -5000
-6000 -10000
-8000 -15000
Sep-21
Dec-21
May-21
Jun-21
Jul-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-22
Feb-23
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-22
Feb-23
Aug-21
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
May-21
Aug-21
Nov-21
Mar-22
May-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Figure 73: Flows to EM bond funds and… Figure 74: … to Asia ex-Japan bond funds down
USD (mn) Global EM Bond Fund Flow USD (mn) Asia Ex-Japan Bond Fund Flow
4000
2000
2000 1000
0
0
-1000
-2000 -2000
-3000
-4000
-4000
-6000 -5000
Jul-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
May-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
May-21
Mar-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-21
Mar-22
Apr-22
May-22
Mar-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22

23 March 2023
Figure 75: Flows to European bond funds down and to… Figure 76: … long term sovereign bond funds up
USD (mn) Western Europe Bond Fund Flow USD (mn) Long Term, Sovereign Bond Fund Flow
6000 5000
4000 4000
2000 3000
2000
0
1000
-2000
0
-4000
-1000
-6000
-2000
-8000 -3000
Jun-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Nov-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Flows to Bond Funds by Sector
Figure 77: Outflows from inflation protected bonds… Figure 78: … & from short-term bond funds
USD (mn) USD (mn) Short Term Bond Fund Flow

Inflation Protected Bond Fund Flow
3000 12000
10000
2000 8000
6000
1000 4000
0 2000
0
-1000 -2000
-4000
-2000 -6000
-8000
-3000 -10000
Jun-22
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Nov-22
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Figure 79: Flows to intermediate bond funds resilient and.. Figure 80: …flows to long term corporate bonds up
Intermediate Term Bond Fund Flow USD (mn) Long Term, Corporate Bond Fund Flow
USD (mn)
10000 4000
8000
6000
2000
4000
2000
0 0
-2000
-4000
-2000
-6000
-8000
-10000 -4000
Jul-21
Jul-21
Jul-22
Feb-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Feb-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
May-21
Mar-22
May-22
Mar-23
May-21
Mar-22
May-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
Oct-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22

23 March 2023
Figure 82: Flows to US money market funds up, eg flight to

Figure 81: Flows to investment grade bonds down
safety perhaps
USD (mn) Investment Grade Bond Fund Flow USD (mn) USA Money Market Flow
200000
3000
150000
2000
100000
1000
50000
0
0
-1000 -50000
-2000 -100000
-3000 -150000
-4000 -200000
Sep-21
Sep-22
Sep-21
Sep-22
Jul-21
Dec-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Jul-21
Aug-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Jun-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Apr-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
May-21
Apr-22
May-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
Figure 83: Outflows from European money market funds Figure 84: Flows to global equity funds down
USD (mn) Western Europe Money Market Flow USD (mn) Global Equity Fund Flow
70000
15000
60000
50000
10000
40000
30000 5000
20000
10000 0
0
-10000 -5000
-20000
-30000 -10000
Dec-22
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Jul-21
Aug-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jun-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
Flows to Equity Funds: Mixed Picture

Figure 85: Inflows to Asia ex-Japan and… Figure 86: … to European equity funds down
USD (mn) Asia Ex-Japan Equity Fund Flow USD (mn) Western Europe Equity Fund Flow
10000 6000
8000 4000
2000
6000 0
4000 -2000
-4000
2000 -6000
0 -8000
-10000
-2000 -12000
-4000 -14000
Jul-21
Aug-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Oct-21
Oct-22

23 March 2023
Figure 87: Inflows to US equity funds… Figure 88: …and outflows from EM equity funds
USD (mn) US Equity Fund Flow USD (mn) Global EM Equity Fund Flow
50000 6000
40000
4000
30000
20000 2000
10000
0 0
-10000
-2000
-20000
-30000 -4000
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
Equity Fund Flow by Sector

Figure 89: Flows to small cap equity funds and… Figure 90: …flows to large cap equity funds up
USD (mn) Small Cap Equity Fund Flow USD (mn) Large Cap Equity Fund Flow
6000 40000
4000 30000
2000 20000
0 10000
-2000 0
-4000 -10000
-6000 -20000
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Jul-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Feb-23
May-21
Aug-21
Mar-22
May-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Nov-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Jul-22
Feb-23
May-21
Aug-21
Mar-22
May-22
Aug-22
Mar-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Figure 91: Outflows from equity energy and… Figure 92: …inflows to consumer funds
USD (mn) Equity funds: Energy USD (mn) Equity funds: Consumer Goods
4000 2000
3000 1500
1000
2000 500
1000 0
0 -500
-1000
-1000 -1500
-2000 -2000
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Feb-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
May-21
Mar-22
May-22
Mar-23
May-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Mar-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22

23 March 2023
Figure 93: Flows to financial equity funds up and… Figure 94: …outflows from industrial funds
USD (mn) Equity funds: Financials USD (mn) Equity funds: Industrials
5000 1500
4000
3000 1000
2000
500
1000
0 0
-1000
-2000 -500
-3000 -1000
-4000
-5000 -1500
Jun-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
May-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
Apr-22
Apr-22
May-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Figure 95: Flows to infrastructure funds down and… Figure 96: …flows to technology funds up
USD (mn) Equity funds: Infrastructure USD (mn) Equity funds: Technology
1200 4000
1000
3000
800
600 2000
400
1000
200
0 0
-200
-1000
-400
-600 -2000
Jul-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Jul-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jul-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Sep-22
Dec-22
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
Jun-21
Aug-21
Feb-22
Mar-22
Jun-22
Aug-22
Feb-23
Mar-23
May-21
May-22
May-21
May-22
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Nov-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Apr-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Oct-21
Oct-22
Oct-21
Oct-22
Appendix: Other Useful Charts

Figure 97: YTD bond yields movements
YTD 10YR Yield YTD 2YR Yield

Change (bps) Change (bps)
United States -44.1 -48.91
United Kingdom -22.1 -5.36
Germany -11.6 2.1
China 2.3 6.2
Philippines 0.0 64.7
Malaysia -11.1 -24.3
Singapore -18.0 -0.6
India 1.1 24.5
Indonesia -3.7 52.3
South Korea 19.7 33
Taiwan 0.0 0.0
Thailand -25.7 8.8

23 March 2023
Figure 98: YTD FX movements
YTD % change YoY % change

GBPUSD 1.8429 -7.4951
EURUSD 1.7718 -1.5686
AUDUSD -1.7201 -10.5087
USDJPY 0.4893 8.8079
USDCHF -0.9394 -1.6615
USDKRW 2.6855 7.3117
USDMYR 1.1626 5.6436
USDINR -0.0952 8.5055
USDTHB -0.5057 2.7301
USDTWD -0.6348 6.9484
USDSGD -0.8273 -1.9166
USDCNH -0.9571 7.5935
USDIDR -1.4641 6.8817
USDPHP -2.1569 3.9560
PHPMYR 3.2828 1.7413
IDRMYR 2.5071 -1.2249
CNHMYR 1.9793 -1.8594
SGDMYR 1.7030 7.5238
INRMYR 1.6917 -2.3466
THBMYR 1.6247 2.8682
KRWMYR -2.5452 -1.5627

23 March 2023
Figure 99: Our econometric model suggests DJIA, inflation

Figure 100: Seasonally the USD weakens in the second
differentials between the US & DM, and nominal interest rate
quarter in most years since 1980
differentials between the US & DM helps forecast the USD
Dependent Variable : DXY Index %QoQ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Method: Least Squares Avg 2022-1980 1.70 0.24 -0.37 -0.71
Date: 12/06/22 2022 2.76 6.48 7.10 -7.67

2021 3.66 -0.85 1.94 1.53
Sample: 2014Q1- 2022Q3
2020 2.76 -1.67 -3.60 -4.21
Included observations: 35
2019 1.16 -1.19 3.38 -3.01
Variable Coefficient Probability 2018 -2.33 5.00 0.70 1.09
Dow Jones Industrial Index -0.313579 0.0029 2017 -1.82 -4.71 -2.67 -1.02
2016 -4.10 1.65 -0.71 7.07
CPI inflation differential between the US
-4.918953 0.0006 2015 8.96 -2.92 0.91 2.37
and DM
2014 0.08 -0.41 7.72 5.04
Nominal Interest rate differential between
2.660127 0.0236
the US and DM (2 period lag) 2013 4.02 0.19 -3.51 -0.23
US Current account balance (2 period lag) 0.226001 0.0000 2012 -1.46 3.32 -2.07 -0.21
VIX Index (2 period lag) -0.091607 0.0013 2011 -4.01 -2.05 5.72 2.07
2010 4.13 6.10 -8.49 0.39
Constant 9.613220 0.0000
2009 5.07 -6.20 -4.34 1.57
R-squared 0.643749 2008 -6.38 0.92 9.64 2.34
Adjusted R-squared 0.582326 2007 -0.86 -1.22 -5.13 -1.32
2006 -1.58 -5.09 1.02 -2.77
2005 3.97 5.98 0.48 1.84
2004 0.79 1.36 -1.61 -7.46
2003 -2.92 -4.20 -1.98 -6.39
2002 1.60 -10.55 0.72 -4.70
2001 7.13 1.79 -5.07 2.95
2000 3.50 1.33 6.00 -3.26
1999 6.30 2.75 -4.19 3.38
1998 1.86 -0.33 -4.94 -2.08
1997 7.49 1.00 1.51 2.62
1996 2.08 1.50 0.14 0.20
1995 -7.69 -0.39 3.32 0.56
1994 -3.90 -3.70 -1.94 0.96
1993 -0.53 1.89 -0.84 4.33
1992 7.33 -6.61 -3.13 13.88
1991 10.70 4.37 -6.38 -7.09
1990 0.65 -2.79 -5.75 -3.25
1989 6.15 3.99 -3.65 -5.33
1988 3.48 7.96 2.41 -5.29
1987 -5.88 0.77 0.34 -13.37
1986 -4.49 -5.61 -4.09 -2.97
1985 -1.51 -2.05 -9.58 -6.55
1984 -2.71 6.27 8.29 2.66
1983 4.13 2.23 2.73 2.68
1982 9.59 3.76 2.65 -3.96
1981 7.05 11.32 0.02 -2.82
1980 9.04 -8.95 0.96 5.08
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. DM refers to the EU and Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, last data point is Dec 31
Japan. Above OLS model is used to forecast the USD on a quarterly basis

23 March 2023
Figure 102: Falling Asian exports and regional currencies are

Figure 101: ADXY index stabilizing
related
Index DXY Index Index %YoY Asia ex-Japan Exports %YoY

140.00 90 3MMA ADXY Index (RHS) 3MMA
ADXY Index (Inverted scale,RHS)
60 10
95 8
120.00 50
100 6
40
100.00 4
105 30 2
20 0
80.00 110
10 -2
115 0 -4
60.00 -6
120 -10
-8
40.00 -20 -10
125
-30 -12
Dec-11
Sep-13
Dec-18
Jul-12
Feb-13
Jun-15
Jul-19
Feb-20
Sep-20
Jun-22
Mar-10
May-11
Aug-16
Mar-17
May-18
Apr-14
Jan-16
Apr-21
Jan-23
Nov-14
Nov-21
Oct-10
Oct-17
20.00 130
2005
1994
1997
1999
2001
2003
2007
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2023
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Annual data with last Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy Monthly data with
data point as at Mar 22 last data point is Feb 2023
Figure 103: Malaysian domestic corporates hoarding of

Figure 104: USDMYR down as DXY index down
USD starting to creep up a bit
MYR mn Index
Malaysia Banking System Total Foreign 4.800 USDMYR DXY Index (RHS) 118.00
250,000 Currency Deposits 5.0
USDMYR (RHS) 4.700
4.5 113.00
200,000
4.600
4.0 108.00
150,000 4.500
3.5
4.400 103.00
100,000
3.0 4.300
98.00
50,000 2.5 4.200
93.00
0 2.0 4.100
Jul-08
Jun-11
Dec-09
Sep-18
Feb-07
Mar-17
Feb-20
Aug-21
May-14
Nov-12
Jan-23
Oct-15
4.000 88.00
Jan-21 Jul-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Mar-23
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy, monthly data with last Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 22
data point is Feb 2023 for USDMYR and Jan 2023 for Malaysia Banking System
Total Foreign Currency Deposits
Figure 105: Malaysia 5YR CDS and USDMYR are related Figure 106: MY-US interest rate differential ↑, USDMYR ↓
4.800 USDMYR MY 5YR CDS (RHS) 140 USDMYR
4.700 4.800 MGS 10YR - UST 10YR Yield Spread -50.00

120
4.600 (Inverted scale) RHS
4.700
100 0.00
4.500 4.600
4.400 80 50.00
4.500
4.300 60 4.400 100.00
4.200 4.300
40 150.00
4.100 4.200
20 200.00
4.000
4.100
3.900 0
4.000 250.00
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Last data point is Mar 22

23 March 2023
Figure 107: USD interest rate swap up, USD liquidity isn’t
Figure 108: Euro Libor-OIS spread rising rapidly
impaired like in 2008
Index USD Interest Rate swap Index EURO Libor-OIS Spread

400
200
180 350
160 300
140 250
120 200
100 150
80
100
60
40 50
20 0
0 -50
Feb-08
Jun-10
Dec-13
Feb-15
Sep-19
Jul-18
Aug-11
May-17
Mar-23
Jan-07
Apr-09
Apr-16
Jan-22
Nov-20
Oct-12
Jun-16
Jun-08
Feb-11
Jun-12
Feb-15
Feb-19
Jun-20
Mar-23
Oct-09
Oct-13
Oct-17
Oct-21
Source: Bloomberg, ticker is USFOSC1 Curncy, last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, ticker is .EULIBOIS G Index, last data point is Mar 21
Figure 109: USD liquidity vs JPY starting to show some

Figure 110: UST10YR on/off the run spread volatility stable
stress
Index USDJPY OIS 1M Basis Swap Spread Index UST10YR On/Off the Run Spread Volatility
100
100
90
0
80
-100 70
-200 60
-300 50
-400 40
-500 30
-600 20
-700 10
-800 0
Jun-00
Jul-93
Dec-96
Sep-98
Dec-03
Sep-05
Jun-07
Dec-10
Sep-12
Jun-14
Dec-17
Sep-19
Jun-21
Mar-95
Mar-02
Mar-09
Mar-16
Mar-23
Jan-90
Oct-91
Mar-07
Mar-03
Mar-05
Mar-09
Mar-11
Mar-13
Mar-15
Mar-17
Mar-19
Mar-21
Mar-23
Source: Bloomberg, ticker is .JYCCBS1M G Index, last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, ticker is I11110YV Index, last data point is Mar 21
Figure 111: High beta currencies such as USDKRW,… Figure 112: …USDINR, and USDIDR…
Index Index
USDKRW Implied Volatility USDINR Implied Volatility
35 25
30
20
25
15
20
15 10
10
5
5
0 0
Jul-21
Aug-11
Dec-14
Aug-16
Mar-18
Mar-23
Apr-13
Jan-10
Nov-19
Dec-14
Jul-21
Aug-11
Aug-16
Mar-18
Mar-23
Apr-13
Jan-10
Nov-19
Source: Bloomberg, ticker is USDKRW 1M ATM VOL, last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, ticker is USDINR 1M ATM VOL, last data point is Mar 22

23 March 2023
Figure 113: …1 month implied volatility well contained Figure 114: VIX Index up recently
Index
USDIDR Implied Volatility Index Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index
35
90
30 80
25 70
60
20
50
15 40
10 30
20
5
10
0 0
Dec-14
Sep-20
Jul-21
Aug-11
Jun-12
Feb-14
Aug-16
Jun-17
Jul-21
Nov-10
May-22
Mar-23
Aug-11
Dec-14
Aug-16
Mar-18
Mar-23
Jan-10
Apr-13
Apr-18
Jan-19
Nov-19
Apr-13
Jan-10
Nov-19
Oct-15
Source: Bloomberg, ticker is USDIDR 1M ATM VOL, last data point is Mar 22 Source: Bloomberg, ticker is VIX Index, last data point is Mar 22
Figure 115: Collapse of S&P500 Index equity risk premium is partially responsible for sustained rally, which we think will
continue in 2023
15.00 S&P 500 Index QoQ (%), 3MMA Equity Risk Premium (%) (RHS) (Inverted Scale) 2.00
3.00
10.00
4.00
5.00
5.00
0.00 6.00
-5.00 7.00
8.00
-10.00
9.00
-15.00
10.00
-20.00 11.00
2005
2011
2001
2002
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017
2018
2019
2020
2020
2021
2022
2023
Figure 116: Malaysia- equity risk premium up Figure 117: Singapore-equity risk premium down
FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index QoQ (%), 3MMA 10.00 20.00

Straits Times Index QoQ (%),3MMA
10.00 Equity Risk Premium (%) (RHS) 12.00 Equity Risk Premium (%) (RHS)
10.00 5.00 15.00
5.00
8.00
0.00 10.00
0.00 6.00
4.00
-5.00 -5.00 5.00
2.00
-10.00 0.00 -10.00 0.00

2010 2013 2016 2019 2023 2010 2013 2016 2019 2023

23 March 2023
Figure 118: Indonesia- equity risk premium up Figure 119: Thailand- equity risk premium down
Jakarta Stock Exchange Index QoQ (%), 3MMA Stock Exchange of Thailand Index QoQ (%), 3MMA
15.00 Equity Risk Premium (%) (RHS) 12.00 15.00 Equity Risk Premium (%) (RHS) 20.00
10.00 10.00 10.00

15.00
5.00 8.00 5.00
0.00 6.00 0.00 10.00
-5.00 4.00 -5.00
5.00
-10.00 2.00 -10.00
-15.00 0.00 -15.00 0.00
2010 2013 2016 2019 2023 2010 2013 2016 2019 2023
Figure 120: Momentum of oil price not alarming
%MoM, 3MMA Percentage Change of Brent Oil Price
100
October Iranian Commodities OPEC Asian Global Covid-19
Financial Afghan Financial
war revolution shock 1985 collapse Pandemic
80 war
1973 1979 1986 Crisis Crisis
1997 2001 2008
60 Venezuela Arab Russia-
Kuwait Saudi
strike Spring
invasion Arabia
Iran-Iraq 2002 2010
40 1990 oil price
war 1980
OPEC war 2020
meeting Iraq Syrian
1999 war war 2011
20
2003
-20
-40
1983
1985
2012
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1984
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Monthly data with last data point is Feb 2023

23 March 2023
Figure 121: YTD 2022 total return

YTD 2022 Total return (%) across major indices and securities
Brent Oil 41.78
DXY 8.21
THB 10YR 5.43
IDR 10YR 3.25
MSCI Thailand 2.27
MSCI Brazil 1.66
MSCI Indonesia 1.57
USDSGD 1.08
MGS 10YR 0.78
China 5YR -0.17
SGD 10YR -0.89
USDTHB -3.47
USDMYR -5.25
EM FX -6.36
USDCNH -7.91
USDIDR -8.36
MSCI India -8.50
Dow Jones -8.78
MSCI Malaysia -9.68
FTSE -9.80
USDINR -10.24
US High Yield Bond -11.19
S&P/ASX 200 -11.40
LMEX -11.51
USDJPY -12.05
MSCI Singapore -13.99
UST 10YR -14.79
US High Grade Credit -16.20
EM Bonds -16.45
DAX -17.03
Convertibles -18.16
S&P 500 -19.44
MSCI World -19.46
MSCI EMI -22.37
MXMS -22.84
MSCI China -23.56
MSCI Korea -30.61
Nasdaq -33.10
Source: Bloomberg, RHB Economics & Market Strategy. Above figures are on quarter-to-date total return from 3 Jan 2022 to 31 Dec 2022

23 March 2023
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KUALA LUMPUR JAKARTA

RHB Investment Bank Bhd PT RHB Sekuritas Indonesia
Level 3A, Tower One, RHB Centre Revenue Tower, 11th Floor, District 8 - SCBD
Jalan Tun Razak Jl. Jendral Sudirman Kav 52-53
Kuala Lumpur 50400 Jakarta 12190
Malaysia Indonesia
Tel : +603 9280 8888 Tel : +6221 509 39 888
Fax : +603 9200 2216 Fax : +6221 509 39 777
SINGAPORE BANGKOK
RHB Bank Berhad (Singapore branch) RHB Securities (Thailand) PCL
90 Cecil Street 10th Floor, Sathorn Square Office Tower
#04-00 RHB Bank Building 98, North Sathorn Road, Silom
Singapore 069531 Bangrak, Bangkok 10500
Thailand
Tel: +66 2088 9999
Fax :+66 2088 9799


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Global Cross Asset Flows Tracker

Global Economics & Market Strategy

We Remain Overweight Equities at the Global Level

See important disclosures at the end of this report

See important disclosures at the end of this report

See important disclosures at the end of this report

See important disclosures at the end of this report

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 8: UST market volatility (MOVE Index) still high and

USD bn US FED discount window lending Index MOVE Index

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Index MSCI US Banks Index

RHB Government Bond Yield Forecasts Bloomberg Consensus

See important disclosures at the end of this report

RHB FX Forecasts Bloomberg Consensus

Figure 15: Markets pricing in peak FFR of around 4.91% is

(bps) UST 10YR Yield Index

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 18: …bonds will under-perform equities on a relative

Figure 19: EM equities likely to continue to under-perform

500 MSCI Emerging Markets Index

Figure 21: MGS10YR not following UST10YR yields

UST 10 YR YIELD (%) %

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 23: Upside surprises in US economic data, hence

Figure 26: Falling flows to DM and rising flows to EM equity

% of AUM DM Bond Flow EM Bond Flow % of AUM

% of AUM EM ex-China Equity Flow % of AUM EM ex-China Bond Flow

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 30: …outlook for growth with a V-shaped recovery

-100.00 0.00 -30 0.00

70 300 118.00 DXY Index

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Index MSCI World Index MSCI Emerging Markets Index(RHS) Index

4-Week Average (% of AUM) CCMP Nasdaq Composite Index (Inverted Scale)

Large Cap, Growth -0.03% 14,000 98.00

See important disclosures at the end of this report

%MoM 3MMA %MoM 3MMA

Figure 44: … across… Figure 45: …major geographies

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 47: …which implies Asian exports slow-down could

3MMA 3MMA China: PMI New Orders

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 53: …and some core services component still

3MMA %MoM %MoM

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 58: …and low activity at ports declining as well,

3.1 US Port-Inland Container Ratio US Port Container Low Activity Index

Figure 59: Momentum of core CPI inflation in Southeast

Figure 62: …which induces some supply chain congestions

See important disclosures at the end of this report

USD mn USD mn RHB Propriety Indicator: Net Capital Flows to

USD mn USD mn RHB Indicator for Net Foreign Flows to Singapore

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Momentum of Flows to Bond Funds: Mixed Picture

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Flows to Bond Funds by Sector

USD (mn) USD (mn) Short Term Bond Fund Flow

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Figure 82: Flows to US money market funds up, eg flight to

Flows to Equity Funds: Mixed Picture

See important disclosures at the end of this report

Equity Fund Flow by Sector