International Journal of Civil Engineering Research.

ISSN 2278-3652 Volume 7, Number 1 (2016), pp. 1-13

© Research India Publications
http://www.ripublication.com

Gap Acceptance Regression Model at Un-Signalized

Intersections (Major-Minor Roads) in Amman-
Jordan

Eng. Wlla Al-Mhairat

Al-Zaytoonah university of Jordan, Amman, Jordan

E-mail:Civil.eng.walaa@gmail.com, w.mhairat@zuj.edu.jo

Abstract

The main purpose of this work is to identify the most influential factors on
gap acceptance decisions and to determine the critical gap that will be
accepted by local drivers, identify parameters that affect the driver’s gap
acceptance decision under local conditions, observe the type of distribution of
local gaps accepted in Amman, Jordan and to develop a gap acceptance
microscopic model.
Provide an idea about the local gap acceptance decisions and critical values.

Key words: gap acceptance, model, intersection, capacity

1.Introduction:
The traffic flow process at unsignalized intersections is complicated since there are
many distinct vehicular movements to be accounted for and most of which conflict
with opposing vehicular volumes. The absence of adequate gap acceptance
distribution results in decreasing capacity, increasing delays and increasing potential
for traffic accidents. A driver waiting at a given way sign on a minor road and wishes
to turn into the major road stream is faced with a series of gaps. Drivers must base
their decision on the size of the gaps between the oncoming traffic. Gap acceptance
and rejection are important parameters in determining the capacity of intersections.
Gaps are either accepted or rejected depending on a number of factors like driver age
and gender, intersection geometric, acceleration capability of a vehicle and other
factors[1].
Identification of the parameters that influence gap acceptance decision is very
beneficial for traffic operation and traffic planning. The headway distribution on
major roads along with the gap acceptance behavior enables the derivation of the
potential capacity of the minor road. Thus, the results of this study analysis assist the
2 Eng. Wlla Al-Mhairat

concerned authorities to develop their corporate plans for traffic operation's

improvements. It is very important to determine the average minimum gap length
(critical gap) that will be accepted by drivers to use in analyzing gap acceptance.
Determining this gap will help in evaluating delays of vehicles on minor roads
wishing to join a major road traffic stream at unsignalized intersections. Also
shedding light on the delay of vehicles on a ramp wishing to join an expressway. So it
therefore requires the acknowledgement of the frequency of arrivals of gaps that are at
least equal to the critical gap. This in turn depends on the distribution of arrivals of
main stream vehicles at the area of merge; it is assumed that for light to medium
traffic the distribution of main stream arrival is Poisson.The application of the gap
acceptance model can contribute greatly in many fields. For example, in the
intelligent transport system (ITS), gap acceptance, merging and lane change are the
main elements [2, 3].
Indicated that Drivers with low acceptance thresholds are more likely to accept the
first gap offered to them, whereas drivers who want long gaps will often reject the lag
and several gaps before obtaining an acceptable gap. The resulting effect of this bias
is that the reported critical gap is somewhat larger than the actual critical gap[4].
Described estimation procedures for critical gaps at unsignalized intersections.
stipulated that not all gaps presented to the driver should be considered in the process
while waiting at an intersection. showed that nearly all gaps longer than 12 seconds
are accepted and, therefore, should not be considered when determining the critical
gap[5, 6].
Offered two approaches to driver’s critical gap values: the deterministic and the
probabilistic approach. The deterministic critical values are treated as a single average
value. The fundamental assumption is that drivers will accept all gaps that are larger
than the critical gap and reject all smaller gaps. Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)
has adopted the deterministic approach in the two way stop controlled roads (TWSC)
capacity formula. As an alternative, probabilistic models solved some of the
inconsistency elements in gap acceptance behavior by using a statistical treatment of
minor street drivers' gap acceptance behavior [7, 8, 9]. Explained how a long queue-
waiting time may reduce the driver's critical gap. Drivers' frustration may increase as
length of the queue and queue time increases. In addition, the pressure on the driver
that is first in line from other vehicles queued behind will encourage the driver to
accept a shorter gap. Finally, the longer the time a driver spends in queue, the better
he or she will be able to estimate the size of upcoming gaps and the driver may come
to accept a shorter gap [10, 11]. Also found evidence that drivers accept smaller lags
and gaps during peak periods than during off-peak hours. Older drivers have problems
to adequately detect, perceive and accurately judge the safety of a gap as indicated by
[12, 13, 14]. Therefore, older drivers may experience greater difficulties at non-
signalized intersections as the result of diminished visual capabilities, such as depth
and motion perception. Prior results indicated that judgments about whether a
potential collision would occur were less accurate for older drivers (40–64 years)
compared with younger drivers (18–29 years) [15, 16, 17].
Collected gap acceptance data as a function of driver age for left turn, right turn, and
through movements at stop-controlled intersections.The findings indicated that
Gap Acceptance Regression Model at Un-Signalized Intersections 3

younger drivers (20–40 years) accepted shorter gaps than older drivers (over 65 years)
[18]. Through both simulator and field measures, indicated that older drivers show
relative insensitivity to vehicle approach speed in left-turn maneuvers across the
major road traffic when compared with younger drivers. This may increase the risk of
accidents if there is a lone speeder in the traffic scheme [19, 20]. Concluded that older
drivers generally over-estimate the speed of vehicles traveling at low speeds, while
under-estimating the speed of those traveling much faster, which could explain the
over-involvement of elderly drivers in accidents at junctions. Stochastic models of the
gap-acceptance behavior of left-turn drivers on major roads at unsignalized
intersections were programmed using (SLAM II), a simulation computer language
[21].
Critical gap is the threshold by which drivers in the minor stream judge whether to
accept a gap. If the gap is larger than critical gap, drivers accept it and enter the
intersection; otherwise, drivers reject the gap and wait for the next gap. At “a priority-
controlled intersection” concluded that, critical gap is usually considered as a fixed
value or to follow a certain distribution[22, 23].

2. Data Collection:
Six unsignalized intersections in Amman city were investigated in typical days. The
intersections were chosen to be on major roads, and of high importance to all road
users; as nearby areas contain many places of interest that attract many people. These
intersections are shown in Figures (1 through 6).

Figure (1): Loop Intersection for Queen Figure (2): Loop Intersection for Istiqlal
Rania Road and Al-Madina. Road and Jordan Road. Al-Monawra
Road
4 Eng. Wlla Al-Mhairat

Figure (3): Loop Intersection for Airport Figure (4): (90º) Intersection between
Road and Mgableen Road. Zahran Road and Hashem Otbeh Road.

Figure (5): (90º) Intersection between Figure (6): (90º) Intersection between
Mecca Road and King Faisal Abd- Yarmouk Road and Abd-Alrahman
Alazeez. Road Kawakby Road.

The selected unsignalized intersections were divided into two groups: loop geometry
including three intersections, and three (90◦) intersections geometry. Those are
mentioned in Table (1).
Gap Acceptance Regression Model at Un-Signalized Intersections 5

Table (1): Roads Surveyed in the Study

Intersection Name Type of intersection

Queen Rania Loop
Istiqlal Loop
Airport Loop
Zahran (90◦)Intersection
Mecca (90◦)Intersection
Yarmouk (90◦)Intersection

3. Calculations and Results:

To obtain the critical gap in accordance with Raffs definition, the cumulative number
of accepted gaps and rejected gaps were calculated for each gap size. Graphical
representations of the previous data were made, and then the critical gap was obtained
from the intersection of the two curves (Cumulative accepted and cumulative rejected
gaps).

Figure(7): Critical Gap Determination for Figure (8): Critical Gap Determination for
Queen Rania Road in Peak Period. Queen Rania Road off Peak Period.

Figure (9): Critical Gap Determination for Figure (10): Critical Gap Determination
Istiqlal Road in Peak Period for Istiqlal Road off Peak Period.
6 Eng. Wlla Al-Mhairat

Figure (11): Critical Gap Determination Figure (12): Critical Gap Determination
for Airport Road in Peak Period. for Airport Road off Peak Period.

Figure (13): Critical Gap Determination Figure (14): Critical Gap Determination
for Zahran. Road in Peak Period. for Zahran Road off Peak Period.

Figure (15): Critical Gap Determination Figure (16): Critical Gap Determination
for Mecca. Road in Peak Period. for Mecca Road off Peak Period.
Gap Acceptance Regression Model at Un-Signalized Intersections 7

Figure (17): Critical Gap Determination Figure (18): Critical Gap Determination
for Yarmouk. Road in Peak Period. for Yarmouk Road off Peak Period.

The results of previous figures are illustrated in Table (2):

Table 2: Critical gap values for each intersection

Road Name Critical Gap Value (sec)

On-Peak Off-Peak
Queen Rania 3.3 5.5
Istiqlal 3.3 5
Airport 3.3 5
Zhran 3.1 4.5
Mecca 3.5 5
Yarmouk 3.3 5.1
Avg. (sec) 3.3 5.02

Results showed that the mean critical gap values were equal to 3.3 seconds in peak
periods and 5.02 seconds for off peak periods. The results of this study agrees with
several previous studies.

4.1 Analysis of Parameters Affecting Gap Acceptance:

Data were inspected by logistic analysis in accordance with previous studies to
determine the variables that affect gap acceptance. The results of this analysis are
shown in Table (3). Input parameters that were considered; driver age and gender, the
flow on major and minor road, the geometric of the roads, and speed of vehicles on
major road.
Table (3) shows the results through the logistic analysis. The dependent variable was
the driver decision on acceptance or rejection of a gap; the independent variables were
driver age, driver gender, traffic flow on major road, traffic flow on minor road, speed
8 Eng. Wlla Al-Mhairat

of vehicles on major road on the lane in which vehicles are merging, type of vehicles
on minor road wishing to merge, and intersection geometry type.

Table 3: The SPSS Output for the Logistic Model

Variable coefficient Significance Level -value R

Model - 0.000 0.376
Driver age -0.078 0.000 -
Driver gender 3.029 0.000 -
(male=1, Female=0)
Traffic flow on major road 0.435 0.027 -
(on-peak=1, off-peak=0)
Traffic flow on minor road 1.642 0.000 -
(on-peak=1, off-peak=0)
Vehicle speed on major road -0.110 0.000 -
Vehicle type on minor road 0.412 0.021 -
(pc=1, others =0)
Intersection geometry type 3.815 0.039 -
(Loop=1; T@ 90º=0)

Therefore, the obtained logistic model is:

D =-0.078*DA + 3.029*DG + 0.435 * F major + 1.642*F minor-0.110 * M +
0.412* VT + 3.815* IG + E
Where
D: decision to accept or reject.
DA: driver age.
DG: driver gender.
F major: traffic flow on major road.
F minor: traffic flow on minor road.
M: vehicle speed on major road.
VT: vehicle type on minor road.
IG: intersection geometry type.
E: error.

4.2 Analysis of Gap Acceptance Model:

Previous model was established to determine decision on gap acceptance. In order to
establish a model to estimate the size of the gap, multiple regression model was used
on the surveyed intersections.
Table (4) shows the results of the multiple regression analysis. The dependent
variable was to accepted gap size; the independent variables were driver age, driver
gender, traffic flow on major road, traffic flow on minor road, speed of vehicles on
major road on the lane in which vehicles are merging, type of vehicles on minor road
wishing to merge, and intersection geometry type according to [24, 25].
Gap Acceptance Regression Model at Un-Signalized Intersections 9

Table 4: The SPSS Output for the Multiple Regression Model

Variable Coefficient Significance -value R

Level
Model - 0.000 0.633
Driver age 0.090 0.000 -
Driver gender (male=1, Female=0) -0.601 0.000 -
Log(traffic flow on major road) -0.024 0.002 -
Log(traffic flow on minor road) -0.071 0.039 -
Vehicle speed on major road 0.040 0.000 -
Vehicle type on minor road (pc=1, others =0) -0.101 0.042 -
Intersection geometry type (Loop=1; T@90º=0) -0.008 0.047 -

Therefore, the obtained multiple regression model is:

AGS = 0.009*DA-0.601* DG-0.024* F major – 0.071* F minor + 0.004* M-0.101*
VT – 0.008* IG + E
Where
AGS: the accepted gap size.
DA: driver age.
DG: driver gender.
F major: the traffic flow on major road.
F minor: the traffic flow on minor road.
M: vehicle speed on major road.
VT: vehicle type on minor road.
IG: intersection geometry type.
E: error.

Applying the obtained multiple regression model on surveyed data in different

locations, for example, if;
Driver age: 60 years old.
Driver gender: male.
Vehicle speed = 60 km/hr.
Vehicle type: passenger car.
Intersection type: loop.
Gap = 6 seconds.
Traffic flow on major road =2073 veh/hr.
Traffic flow on minor road = 858 veh/hr.
Peak period.

Implementation of the previous data in the multiple regression model, the answer was
6.8 seconds. The significance levels show that the effects of the studied variables
were significant, and were less than 0.05. This means that the selected variables have
a significant effect on determining the accepted gap size.
10 Eng. Wlla Al-Mhairat

Analyzed data show that each factor in this model has an effect on the accepted gap
size. Multiple regression model shows positive sign for driver age, which means in
case of increasing in driver age; the required gap size increased.
For driver gender, model shows positive sign for female, this means that females use
larger gap size more than males, because females more cautions for ending their
waiting time. For intersection geometric factor, model shows positive sign for (90◦)
intersection and negative sign for loop geometry type. This is because merging
vehicles in (90º) intersections need larger gap size than loop type. For traffic flow on
major stream, model shows negative sign because drivers accept smaller gap size in
peak period. Vehicle type factor have negative sign for passenger car because it needs
smaller gap size compared with buses. Finally, Model shows negative sign for vehicle
speed on major road, because it shortens the accepted gap size [26].

4.3 Applications of Models:

The phenomenon of gap acceptance can be used in many important aspects such as
queue lengths, delays and road capacities. Results shown in Table (5) indicate the
existence of short queues in some roads (3-4 vehicles) and long queues (9-16
vehicles) on other roads. Despite the length of the queue the delay seems to be
significant (8-14 sec/veh). This can be explained by that roads dimensions are small in
general, and therefore, are affected significantly even by small queue.

Table 5: Summary of Results

Road Peak Period Off-Peak Period

Name Queu Delay Estimated Calculat Queu Delay Estimated Calculat
e D capacity from ed e D capacity from ed
length (sec/ve GREATER capacity length (sec/ve GREATER capacity
Qι(ve h) AMMAN Ccal. Qι(ve h) AMMAN Ccal.
h) MUNICIPALI (veh/hr) h) MUNICIPALI (veh/hr)
TY C est. TY C est.
(veh/hr) (veh/hr)
Queen 9 8.96 3700 3470 2 6.51 3700 3393
Rania
Istiqlal 16 11.52 3700 3100 9 9.16 3700 3023
Airport 3 6.86 3800 3634 2 6.2 3800 3559
Zahran 4 14.17 950 910 2 10.8 950 837
Mecca 3 13.97 845 830 2 11.82 845 755
Yarmou 4 11.89 1200 1115 1 9.05 1200 1038
k

It was noticed that the calculated capacity in peak and off-peak periods are less than
the estimated capacity obtained from (GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY), this
result explains the high levels of congestion in the studied roads.

4.4 Comparing with HCM:

Gap Acceptance Regression Model at Un-Signalized Intersections 11

Capacity values obtained from GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY and HCM

were compared and examined using the T-test. The HCM formula is shown below.
c = v*((e^ (−v*tc /3600)) / (1 – e^ (−v*tf /3600))) (1)
where:
c = capacity of minor road (veh/h).
v = flow rate for major road (veh/h).
tc = critical gap(s).
tf = follow up time(s).

Table (6) shows the results for T-test. It was noticed that the actual capacity of minor
road calculated using the HCM equation is less than the values that was obtained from
GREATER AMMAN MUNICIPALITY by ratio equal to 0.93. Also the significance
level shows that the studied variables were significant and were less than 0.05.

Table 6: The SPSS output for T-test

Number of readings Mean value Standard deviation Significance level

6 0.93 0.05 0.00

5. Conclusions
Based upon the analysis performed in this study, the following conclusions were
made:
1. The critical gaps at the six locations in Amman (the capital city of Jordan)
ranged between (3.1-3.5 seconds) for peak periods and between (4.5-5.5
seconds) for non-peak periods.
2. Gaps investigated in the study followed Poisson distribution.
3. For gap acceptance decision, a logistic model is developed. The obtained
logistic model is:
D =-0.078*DA + 3.029*DG + 0.435 * F major + 1.642*F minor-0.110 * M
+ 0.412* VT + 3.815* IG + E
4. For determination of accepted gap size, a multiple regression model is
developed. The obtained multiple regression model is:
AGS = 0.009*DA-0.601* DG-0.024* F major – 0.071* F minor + 0.004*
M-0.101* VT – 0.008* IG + E
5. The analysis indicated that there is a decrease in the roads capacities, and
increase in delays due to the absence of adequate gap acceptance. These
results require more attention from traffic engineers in solving congestion,
delays, capacities problems, and level of service. It can be concluded that
operations on ramps studied in this research may be improved by using control
system, for example, ramp metering. Ramp metering is defined as the process
of facilitating traffic flow on freeways by regulating the amount of traffic
entering the freeway through the use of control devices on entrance ramps to
allow vehicles to enter the freeway at a predetermined rate. This will ease
congestion by controlling the rate of flow of merging vehicles. This will also
12 Eng. Wlla Al-Mhairat

assist in reducing pollution and energy waste. An alternative solution is to

provide an additional lane; this will increase the capacity. Selection of most
appropriate solution will require cost-benefit analysis.

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