Suavizamiento exponencial de Winters

Alfa= 0.96748601
Beta= 0.08274975
Promedio 100.6 Gama= 0.99

t Yt Lt Tt St Yt est Pronóstico e
1 92.2 0.91657692
2 93.1 0.92552398
3 98.7 0.9811946
4 98.9 0.98318283
5 105.5 1.04879463
6 101.1 1.00505343
7 107.1 1.06470052
8 106.9 1.06271229
9 105.0 1.04382404
10 96.3 0.95733576
11 100.8 1.00207108
12 101.5 1.00902991
13 99.9 100.6 1.17817818 0.99235855 93.2798909 6.62
14 109.1 117.36 2.46787833 0.92961346 110.899311 - 1.80
15 111.5 113.84 1.97260941 0.97947826 113.632872 - 2.13
16 108.5 110.53 1.53589705 0.98162102 110.184444 - 1.68
17 107.8 103.09 0.79258966 1.04575409 108.947869 - 1.15
18 104.3 103.78 0.78429968 1.00502115 105.091647 - 0.79
19 102.2 96.27 0.09788712 1.06164825 102.601026 - 0.40
20 101.1 95.17 -0.00075832 1.06226942 101.141769 - 0.04
21 100.3 96.06 0.07255627 1.04414435 100.344656 - 0.04
22 105.0 109.24 1.15716772 0.96115745 105.686104 - 0.69
23 108.3 108.15 0.97143813 1.00137918 109.349036 - 1.05
24 115.1 113.91 1.36748517 1.01044045 116.317537 - 1.22
25 113.6 114.50 1.30328999 0.99213485 114.919203 - 1.32
26 109.8 118.04 1.48818627 0.93019892 111.113633 - 1.31
27 112.1 114.61 1.08164408 0.97808139 113.321165 - 1.22
28 108.3 110.50 0.65190816 0.98008616 109.111245 - 0.81
29 103.3 99.18 -0.33872487 1.04155456 103.366505 - 0.07
30 106.5 105.74 0.23161148 1.00720075 106.499984 0.00
31 100.3 94.85 -0.68844242 1.05750774 99.9658077 0.33
32 106.5 100.06 -0.20039332 1.06435265 106.076577 0.42
33 113.6 108.51 0.5152375 1.04691313 113.834517 - 0.23
34 118.5 122.82 1.65744513 0.96475119 119.647206 - 1.15
35 111.5 111.77 0.60578817 0.99759103 112.534316 - 1.03
36 114.4 113.19 0.67292818 1.01068143 115.052402 - 0.65
37 110.5 111.46 0.47377079 0.99142207 111.050291 - 0.55
38 109.2 117.22 0.91118257 0.93159455 109.882337 - 0.68
39 106.4 109.09 0.16315877 0.97538485 106.856714 - 0.46
40 106.1 108.29 0.08345471 0.97979612 106.213518 - 0.11
41 110.5 106.17 -0.09909599 1.04083449 110.474005 0.03
42 112.5 111.51 0.35157717 1.00883737 112.669762 - 0.17
43 118.1 111.68 0.3366393 1.05745087 118.462414 - 0.36
44 116.5 109.54 0.13135364 1.06355066 116.728543 - 0.23
45 119.1 113.63 0.45896341 1.04812671 119.441203 - 0.34
46 115.6 119.64 0.91807953 0.96623975 116.305833 - 0.71
47 115.8 116.23 0.55976413 0.99635448 116.503586 - 0.70
48 111.2 110.24 0.01855268 1.00868654 111.440898 - 0.24
49 110.6 111.51 0.12213307 0.99179232 110.67938 - 0.08
50 107.3 115.06 0.40569223 0.93251761 107.570658 - 0.27
51 111.9 114.75 0.34601241 0.97518088 112.261136 - 0.36
52 118.7 120.95 0.83064738 0.98137458 119.32102 - 0.62
53 118.7 114.29 0.21111944 1.03856614 119.18162 - 0.48
54 117.7 116.60 0.3842972 1.00943981 118.01674 - 0.32
2 124.110065
3 125.2347
4 123.821298
5 114.518839
6 118.470936
7 120.324908
8 118.690762
9 111.955543
10 117.45234
11 118.575458
12 125.884797
13 122.742314
ECM 1.70685944
RECM 1.30646831 Suavizamiento exponencial de Winters
EAPM 1% 140.0

120.0
𝑒^2 Abs(e) /Yt
100.0

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

-
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64

Yt Yt est Pronóstico

43.8258442 0.06626736
3.23752043 0.01649231
4.54914234 0.0191289
2.83735287 0.01552483
1.31760271 0.01064813
0.62670475 0.00759009
0.1608216 0.00392393
0.00174463 0.00041314
0.00199419 0.00044523
0.4707389 0.00653433
1.10047559 0.00968639
1.48239573 0.01057808
1.74029643 0.0116127
1.72563039 0.01196387
1.49124445 0.01089353
0.65811891 0.00749072
0.0044229 0.0006438
2.55324E-10 1.50036E-07
0.1116845 0.00333193
0.17928667 0.0039758
0.05499844 0.00206441
1.31608116 0.00968106
1.06980966 0.00927638
0.42562836 0.00570281
0.30282017 0.00498001
0.46558413 0.00624851
0.20858808 0.00429243
0.01288632 0.00106991
0.00067573 0.00023525
0.02881899 0.00150899
0.13134403 0.00306871
0.05223201 0.00196174
0.11641933 0.00286484
0.49819965 0.00610582
0.4950328 0.00607587
0.05803169 0.00216635
0.00630115 0.00071772
0.07325577 0.00252244
0.13041926 0.00322731
0.38566543 0.00523184
0.23195767 0.00405745
0.10032433 0.00269108
55 58 61 64