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Will There Be Another Great Flood in California?

ARkstorms and Their Socioeconomic and Environmental Impacts

By Darien Valdez

Northern Californians started off their first week of 2023 with an atmospheric
river, also known as an ARkStorm, drenched much of the entire northern region and
devastated many homes, buildings, and infrastructure costing up to billions of dollars of
damages. Some of these damages were in the form of floods by large amounts of water
accumulating rapidly than it can permeate into the ground or wash away as runoff that
flooded more than half of the Central Valley. The floods also initiated mudslides in the
Sierras Mountains, Santa Cruz Mountains, Berkeley Hills, The Diablo Range, and other
hills or mountain ranges in Northern California. Other damages also included trees that
were blown off from the soil that landed on personal properties such as homes or
vehicles, estimated about more than 1000 trees have been removed due to strong
winds from the storm. Unfortunately, the ARkstorm has claimed about 22 lives during
and after the extreme event (Castleman et al. 2023).
An ARkStorm is considered to be an extreme weather event of heavy
precipitation accompanied by powerful winds. As a comparative context, this is like
California’s and other parts of the western coast of the United States own version of a
hurricane storm in the east coast. ARkstorms are formed at the intertropical
convergence zone (ITCZ), a latitudinal region of the planet roughly between 30o N. and
30o S. where evaporation is highest, and where most of the storms originate. The
accumulation of water vapor in the atmosphere is heavily concentrated as atmospheric
temperature warms, generating a cyclone. Warming intensifies wind velocities, causing
the transport of the large mass of water vapor directly to the west coast of California by
westerly winds, where the hot moist air converges into a high total column water vapor
(TCWV) that resembles a “river like” shape (see Figure 1) when it meets with cold air
(Dacre et al. 2015). The high TCWV later arrives at a topographic landmass where all
the water vapor heavily precipitates.
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Predicting ARkstorms is a very complex process of running many simulations

with climate models and understanding the physical and chemical interactions of water
vapor in the atmosphere. However, there are some indicators to determine how
probable an ARkstorm will arise and the direction it will travel. Temperature is a major
variable that correlates with the amount of water evaporated from sea surface waters. In
a physical perspective, warmer surface temperatures can hold more water vapor in the
atmosphere since the air parcel expands with heat, allowing more space for water
molecules to oscillate and remain as a gas phase since relative humidity is low in these
conditions. Referring back to TCWV, this can be tracked via satellite view since the
center of cyclones is wrapped by a warm band of air containing water that condenses
and starts to precipitate (Dacre et al. 2015). Figure 2 shows a visual representation of
how the hot air with water vapor condenses when it converges to a narrow “stream”.
Other factors include, but not limited to: ocean circulation since reduction of ocean
currents allows more surface area of water to be evaporated, increasing input of water
into the atmosphere (Hirata and Nonaka 2021); El Nino Southern Oscillation cycles
(ENSO) due to natural variability that opens to uncertainty in predicting ARkstorm
events; and the direction and velocity of wind patterns.

Utilizing climate models is an important approach to project future ARkstorms

under various scenarios of climate change from anthropogenic carbon emissions. As
mentioned earlier, ARkstorms depend on high temperatures for accumulation of large
quantities of water vapor. A group of researchers applied a Coupled Model
Intercomparison Projects Phase 5 (CMIP5) that features 2019 Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change fifth assessment report (AR5) and run simulations through 2
different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RCPs focus on the
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concentration of anthropogenic carbon emissions that contributes to global warming of

watts per square meter. The researchers use RCP 4.5 and 8.5, the numbers meaning
the average amount of solar radiation that is forced by anthropogenic greenhouse
gasses, and found that the largest amount of warming will occur in the northern
hemisphere under RCP 8.5 (business as usual) by 2100 (See Figure 3; Ruela et al.
2020). With more warming of sea surface temperatures increases more evaporation of
water at low relative humidity, which can potentially increase the strength of ARkstorms
by orders of magnitude, and also increase their frequency of occurrence.

It is expected that ARkstorms events will become more frequent and will
precipitate more volume of water if we continue to burn fossil fuels with little to no
reduction of emissions. A team of researchers gathered various data from the
Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESMLN) and ran climate models
under RCP 8.5. Under “business as usual” conditions, the researchers have found that
climate change has doubled the likelihood of an extreme event causing a catastrophic
flood in the central valley that are connected to the warming of surface temperatures
(Huang and Swain 2022, see Figure 4). It is also more probable that flooding will be
caused by a 200-400 percent increase of runoff of water from the Sierra Nevada
because of increased precipitation and decreased snow fraction. However, according to
the California Department of Water Resources (CDWR), total average snowpack depth
was estimated to be 116.5 inches, and 41.5 inches of snow water on average, breaking
historical records. Regardless if the ARkstorms reach Sierra Nevada and precipitate as
snow, runoff is still likely to occur and likely to cause flooding. In addition to this,
massive amounts of snow has already caused several damages to northern
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communities from the weight of the snow destroying rooftops and avalanches becoming
more frequent. Overall, the chances of California experiencing another megaflood event
is more probable in the next ARkstorm event.

This is not the first time California has experienced such severe weather to a
point where the outcome of heavy precipitation resulted in a megaflood. In 1862, a
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massive ARkstorm event took place in Northern California that flooded Sacramento and
many acres of farmland across the central valley. The flood was so massive that if seen
from satellite view, it would resemble a massive lake or bay. The megaflood was mostly
caused by nonstop rainfall that lasted for months, resulting in large amounts of water
accumulated in areas where water is unable to runoff. Consequently, many livestocks
were killed from the flood, crops and other large scale agriculture fields were destroyed
and were temporarily unusable, and many communities became homeless and
displaced to areas that were not affected from the flood. Below is a video from the
United States Geological Survey (USGS) that gives a dramatic, yet informative in-depth
view of California’s history of climate disaster from ARkstorms and suggestions on how
to adapt and mitigate damages.
In general, it is obvious that extreme storms are likely to cause various damages
to infrastructure, communities, and ecosystems that can range from $250 million to over
$1 billion. Damages for future ARkstorm events can be predicted by using historical
records of costs of repairs with economic data and methods while applying climate
models. In a study by Corringham et al. (2022), 14 CMIP5 global climate models under
RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were applied with 40 years of flood insurance data and found that
costs for recovery are projected to be about $2.3 billion under RCP 4.5 scenario, and
$3.2 billion under RCP 8.5 scenario, both by 2090 for the western United States. This is
because ARkstorms are expected to become orders of magnitude stronger than the
previous storms and cover a much greater area to places where these storms normally
do not reach. However, there are some recommendations for adaptation and mitigation
from damages that are cost effective and prevent the likelihood of disaster ranging in
the billions of dollars.
After recovering from previous ARkstorm related events, several county
planners, stakeholders, and other organizations of safety assessment programs have
analyzed the cost for improving infrastructure that is resistant to ARkstorms. Some
involve placing facilitative protocols to ensure the safety of the general public through
evacuation plans, emergency response calls, live communications to health and human
services, power and fuel supplies, and public flood awareness and preparedness. For
example, a team of researchers collaborated with various risk recovery and
environmental management groups developed a 3 phase response model for prioritizing
measures during an ARkstorm event (Albano et al. 2015). Phase 1 occurs at the 8th
day of ARkstorm, also known as the “priorities during preparation phase” that consist of
dissemination of information to the public and advance preparation of shelters. Phase 2
is the “priorities during response phase,” which takes place during the 18th day. It
involves prioritizing existing resources for adaptation, coordination and communication
with emergency responders, infrastructure operators, and other information centers that
are for safety reasons. Phase 3 is the final phase that deals with approaches to facilitate
recovery and to enhance resilience on the 35th day of ARkstorm. This phase involves
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community engagement with the public and further recovery management of damaged
infrastructure. Figure 5 explains more in detail from Albano et al. recommendations.

With mitigation efforts being implemented for an effective flood and ARkstorm
resistance infrastructure, there still needs to be more research about how this system
responds to climate change from anthropogenic carbon emissions, and further update
our safety procedures to be better prepared for the next extreme event. Catastrophic
damages can still be prevented as long as our adaptive and mitigative measures can
outweigh the effect of ARkstorms, and place new policies that restrict further burning of
fossil fuels, to ensure a non RCP 8.5 scenario in the future.
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References

Albano C., et al. 2015 Oct 10. Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to
identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra
Nevada mountains, USA. Natural hazards. Vol 80. pg 879-900.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-015-2003-4
California Department of Water Resources (CDWR) 2023 Mar 3. California’s snowpack
shows huge gains from recent storms.
https://water.ca.gov/News/News-Releases/2023/March-23/March-2023-Snow-Su
rvey
Castleman T., Hayley S., and Toohey G. 2023 Jan 8. Tracking the deaths from
California’s winter storms: at least 22 killed. Los Angeles times.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-01-10/tracking-the-deaths-from-cali
fornias-winter-storms
Corringham T.W., et al. 2022 Aug 12. Climate change contributions to future
atmospheric river flood damages in the Western United states. Scientific
reports. Vol. 12(13747) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-15474-2
Darce H.F., et al. 2015 Aug 1. How do atmospheric rivers form. Bulletin of the american
meteorological society. Vol. 96(8). pg 1243-1255.
https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00031.1
Hirata H. and Nonaka M. 2021. 11 – impacts of strong warm ocean currents on
development of extratropical cyclones through the warm and cold conveyor
belts: a review. Modes of climate variation. pg. 267-293.
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-818156-0.00014-9
Huang X. and Swain D. 2022 Aug 12. Climate change is increasing the risk of a
California megaflood. Science advances. Vol 8. eabq0995.
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abq0995
Ruela R. et al. 2020 April 9. Global and regional evolution of sea surface
temperature under climate change. Global and planetary change. Vol. 190.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103190
United States Geological Survey (USGS). 2018 Jan 23. ARkstorm scenario. U.S.
Department of interior. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/science-application-for-
risk-reduction/science/arkstorm-scenario#overview