Livestock sector development in

Asia and sub-Saharan Africa

A comparative analysis
of the drivers of livestock
sector development

Financial support provided by the United States

Agency for International Development (USAID)
Livestock sector development in
Asia and sub-Saharan Africa
A comparative analysis
of the drivers of livestock
sector development

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

Rome, 2019
Required citation:
FAO. 2019. Africa Sustainable Livestock 2050 - Livestock sector development in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa – A comparative analysis
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Contents
Summary ......................................................................................................................... iv

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1
2. Populations and income ............................................................................................. 1
2.1 Populations ........................................................................................................... 1
2.2 Income .................................................................................................................. 2
3. Resource endowments ............................................................................................... 8
3.1 Agricultural land .................................................................................................... 8
3.2 Water .................................................................................................................... 9
3.3 Livestock.............................................................................................................. 10
4. Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 14

References ..................................................................................................................... 16
Annex 1. Socio-economic trends ................................................................................... 17
Annex 2. Natural resource endowments....................................................................... 26

iii
Summary
Africa Sustainable Livestock 2050 (ASL2050) aims to understand how Africa’s changing livestock
sector will affect public health, environment and livelihoods. ASL2050 has produced six papers
comparing livestock sector development in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These broad
overviews sharpen our understanding, highlight contrasts and similarities, test hypotheses, and
inform the decision-making process.
Comparing livestock sector development in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa:
1. Framework for comparative analysis
2. Comparative analysis of the drivers of livestock sector development
3. Comparison of sector growth and transformation
4. Comparative analysis of public health impacts
5. Comparison of livelihoods impacts
6. Comparison of environmental impacts
This paper presents and discusses data and statistics on the drivers of livestock sector
development in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These comprise population and income and
natural resource endowments, including land, water and livestock.
 The combined human populations of South, East and Southeast Asia are much larger
(3.9 billion vs. 0.8 billion in 2010) and considerably more affluent (per capita GDP of
USD 8 300 vs. USD 3 150 in 2010) than the populations of Western Africa (WAF), Eastern
Africa (EAF) and Central Africa (CAF).
 Human population growth has been, and is expected to remain, far higher in SSA than in
Asian sub-regions while per capita GDP growth between 2010 and 2030 is projected to be
higher in Asia than in SSA. With the exception of Southern Africa (SAF), per capita GDP in
SSA is projected to be around one quarter or less than that of Asian sub-regions in 2030 as
well as in 2050.
 Urban populations are growing much faster than rural populations in all Asian and SSA sub-
regions and by 2030 urban populations are predicted to be larger than rural populations in
all sub-regions except South Asia and EAF.
 Per capita consumption of livestock-derived food types is very heterogeneous across the
different sub-regions - pig meat and egg consumption are very high in East Asia, SAF has the
highest per capita consumption of ruminant (large and small) and chicken meat while South
Asians are by far the largest consumers of milk. Total annual per capita livestock meat
consumption is low (≤10 kg) in South Asia, West and East Africa.
 Asian growth in demand for ASF, both over the past and coming 20 years, has and will
remain to be largely driven by income growth while in WAF, EAF and CAF, with per capita
GDP predicted to remain comparatively modest, population growth was and will be the
main driver of demand growth.
 Despite the projected doubling of per capita GDP in WAF and EAF, annual per capita demand
for meat is projected to still be fairly low (around 15 kg) in these two sub-regions by 2030.
The largest relative per capita demand growth for meat (particularly pig and poultry) and
eggs is predicted to occur in CAF.
 Projected absolute aggregate demand growth between 2010 and 2030 for meats will be
highest in East Asia (58 MMT), followed by Southeast Asia (16 MMT), while demand is
expected to by less than 10 MMT in all other sub-regions. For milk, aggregate demand
growth between 2010 and 2030 will be highest in South Asia (44 MMT), followed by East
Africa (17 MMT), with demand growing by 6 MMT or less in all other sub-regions.
 In 2010, arable land per capita was less than 0.2 ha in the Asian sub-regions (less than 0.1ha
in East Asia) while in the sub-regions of SSA it was in the range of 0.2 to 0.3 ha. Major
differences between the two regions exist in the per capita abundance of grassland, the

iv
 average being around 0.2 ha in Asian sub-regions vs. an average of 0.8 ha across the sub-
regions of SSA.
 In 2010, 50, 60 and 33 percent of arable land was equipped for irrigation in South, East and
Southeast Asia while for WAF, EAF, CAF and SAF respective proportions were only 2, 5, 1
and 11 percent.
 Taking into account population growth, in 2050, available land resources per capita in WAF,
EAF and CAF would be similar to those of East Asia, i.e. between 0.1 and 0.2 ha of arable
land and between 0.2 and 0.3 ha of grassland per person. Bringing into production
potentially arable, non-forest and non-protected, land would only result in a major increase
in per capita land availability in Central Africa, while for all other regions the effect would
be negligible.
 Given expected human population growth, renewable freshwater will decline to
≤1 000 m3/person by 2050 in South Asia, WAF, EAF and SAF, while in East Asia water
availability will remain at around 2 000 m3/person. Renewable freshwater per capita is, and
is expected to remain, abundant in Central Africa and Southeast Asia (≥5 000 m3/person in
2050).
 Livestock resources per capita are generally higher in SSA (0.23, 0.34, 0.16, and
0.35 TLU/person in WAF, EAF, CAF and SAF) than in Asia (0.21, 0.19, and 0.14 TLU/person in
SA, EA, and SEA) while livestock densities are generally higher in Asia (1.1, 0.50, and 0.70
TLU/ha in SA, EA, and SEA) than in SSA (0.25, 0.38, 0.13, and 0.12 TLU/ha in WAF, EAF, CAF
and SAF). Ruminants account for 90 percent or more of the livestock biomass in all sub-
regions with the exception of East and Southeast Asia, where they only account for 50 and
60 percent respectively.
 With the exception of East and Southeast Asia, TLUs per capita have declined or stayed
relatively stable over the 1990–2010 period, while livestock densities have increased in all
sub-regions but Southern Africa.

Key words: livestock development, population, income, resource endowments, Asia,

sub—Saharan Africa
Authors: Joachim Otte and Ana Felis
Date of Publication: February 2018

v
1. Introduction
In the past ten years, the African continent has been one of the fastest-growing economic
regions of the world. The rate of per capita income growth in Africa is comparable or greater
to that of the Asian Tiger and Latin Puma markets and they have been nicknamed the ‘lion
markets’ (Steinfeld and Chilonda, 2006). As GDP and consumer purchasing power grow, so will
the demand for livestock products, including meat, milk, eggs. In response, producers will
significantly invest in and expand livestock production and respective value chains. These
investments will result in an increased supply of animal source foods aimed at satisfying
consumer demand. However, if uncontrolled, the anticipated expansion of livestock production
is likely to also have negative effects on public health, the environment and livelihoods, as
experience elsewhere, for instance in Asia, has shown. Understanding long-term changes in
livestock systems and their likely impacts on society is thus of paramount importance to
formulate and implement policies that ensure sustainable livestock production.
Livestock sector development is driven by a number of interrelated factors, which include rising
disposable incomes, demographic and dietary changes, availability and pressure on land and
water, and technological advances. At the same time, development of the livestock sector
affects the way society changes and significantly impacts on natural resources.
The initial conditions and rate of change and direction of livestock development vary greatly
among world regions. This paper provides a broad comparison of the main drivers of livestock
sector development in South, East and Southeast Asia vs. Western, Eastern, Central and
Southern Africa. Its objective is to shed light on what could possible future development
trajectories of the African livestock sector, given the current situation and the past
development growth and transformation of the sector in Asia.

2. Populations and income

2.1. Populations
In 2010, human populations in South, East and Southeast Asia reached 1.7, 1.6 and 0.6 billion
people respectively, while the total population of SSA amounted to around 0.8 billion (Figure
1). Population sizes of east Africa (WAF) and East Africa (EAF) were around 300 million in 2010,
while Central Africa (CAF) and Sothern Africa (SAF) have distinctly smaller human populations
of 130 and 60 million respectively. Urbanization rates of WAF and CAF were close to 40 percent
in 2010, which was similar to the rate of urbanization in South and Southeast Asia. EAF had the
lowest rate of urbanization, 20 percent, while in East Asia and Southern Africa around
60 percent of the people lived in urban areas in 2010. Urban populations grew by 70 to 130
percent between 1990 and 2010 while rural population growth was usually less than half that
of urban populations in the respective sub-region. In East Asia, rural populations even declined
by 20 percent over the 20 year period (Annex Tables A.1 and A2).

1
 Figure 1 Rural and urban populations by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: FAOSTAT (Annual Population)

Past and projected population growth rates by sub-region for three successive 20-year periods
are presented in Figure 2. Population growth rates of WAF, EAF and CAF by far exceed those of
the Asian sub-regions and SAF and are projected to be higher in the period 2030–2050 than the
population growth rates of Asian sub-regions between 1990 and 2010. Human population of
East Asia is projected to decline by five percent between 2030 and 2050 (Annex Tables A.1 and
A2).

Figure 2 Past and projected population growth (%) by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: FAOSTAT (Annual Population)

2.2. Income
Asian populations are not only larger but also more affluent than those of WAF, EAF and CAF
(Figure 3 and Table A3). In 1990, per capita GDP in East and Southeast Asia was already almost
twice as high as the 2010 per capita GDP in EAF and CAF. Likewise, 2010 poverty rates were

2
generally considerably lower in the Asian sub-regions (10 to 30 percent) than in WAF, EAF and
CAF (50 to 70 percent) (Tables A.5 and A.6).

Figure 3 Per capita GDP (PPP USD 2011) by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: Elaborated from World Bank (International Comparison Program database) and FAOSTAT data

In 2010, agriculture’s share in GDP amounted to 16, 5 and 12 percent in South, East and
Southeast Asia while in WAF and EAF agriculture contributed around 25 percent to total GDP.
By contrast, agriculture only contributed 11 and 3 percent to total GDP in CAF and SAF. With
the exception of East Asia and WAF, agriculture’s share in total GDP declined over the 1990–
2010 period indicating that non-agricultural sectors have grown faster than agriculture.
Past and projected per capita GDP growth rates by sub-region for successive 20-year periods
are presented in Figure 4. 1990–2010 per capita GDP growth was much higher in Asia (80 to
120 percent) than in SSA (0 to 40 percent), and projected 2010–2050 growth is also higher in
Asia (120 to 180 percent) than SSA (80 to 110 percent). For the 2030–2050 period, per capita
GDP growth is projected to be highest in South Asia (135 percent), followed by EAF, CAF and
WAF (100 to 120 percent) while it is predicted to be comparatively lower in Southeast Asia and
SAF (60 to 80 percent) and lowest in East Asia (20 percent).

3
 Figure 4 Past and projected per capita GDP growth (%) by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: Elaborated from SSP Public Database (SSP2 Scenario in OECD Env-Growth Model), FAOSTAT and UNDESA

Figure 5 shows past and projected per capita GDP by sub-region and 20-year period. With the
exception of SAF, per capita GDP in SSA is projected to be around one quarter or less that of
Asian sub-regions in 2030 as well as in 2050 (Tables A.7 and A8).
Asian growth in demand for ASF, both over the past and coming 20 years, has and will remain
to be largely driven by income growth while in WAF, EAF and CAF, with per capita incomes
predicted to remain comparatively modest, population growth was and will remain the
stronger driver of demand growth. The forces driving growth in demand for ASF have
implications for demand specificities – higher income consumers will not only tend to consume
more ASF but also demand higher quality products.

Figure 5 Past and projected per capita GDP (PPP USD 2005) by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: Elaborated from SSP Public Database (SSP2 Scenario in OECD Env-Growth Model), FAOSTAT and UNDESA

Relative growth (%) in per capita consumption of meat, eggs and milk between 1990 and 2010
by sub-region is presented in Figure 6. East Asia had the highest consumption growth across all

4
three types of ASF, 100 to 150 percent, followed by Southeast Asia, where growth rates were
between 50 and 100 percent. Overall, EAF had the lowest consumption growth with per capita
egg consumption declining (-13 percent) while in CAF and SAF per capita milk consumption
declined by 5 and 2 percent respectively (Tables A.9 and A.10).

Figure 6 Growth (%) between 1990 and 2010 in per capita consumption of meat (all meats
combined), eggs and milk in Asian and SSA sub-regions

Source: FAOSTAT (Food Supply – Livestock)

Absolute per capita consumption of livestock-derived food items (kg/year) by sub-region in

2010 is presented in Table 1 (Table A.9 and A.10). Pig meat and egg consumption are very high
in East Asia compared to all other sub-regions (about three times as high as in the sub-region
with the second highest per capita consumption). SAF has the highest per capita consumption
of ruminant (large and small) and chicken meat while South Asians are by far the largest
consumers of milk. In WAF and EAF, total annual per capita livestock meat consumption
amounted to a modest 10 kg in 2010.
Table 1 2010 per capita consumption (kg/year) of livestock-derived food items by Asian and
SSA sub-region
Asia SSA
ASF
S. Asia E. Asia SE. Asia WAF EAF CAF SAF
LR meat 2.5 5.4 3.8 3.3 5.7 6.7 15.4
SR meat 1.1 2.7 0.4 2.9 1.4 2.0 3.7
Pig meat 0.2 34.0 12.3 1.3 1.3 3.3 4.1
Poultry m. 3.1 13.2 11.3 2.9 1.8 7.0 29.8
Eggs 2.5 17.9 5.6 2.5 1.0 0.8 6.1
Milk 82.2 33.8 17.2 15.0 42.8 15.8 38.5
Source: FAOSTAT (Food Supply – Livestock and Fish)

Based on projected growth of per capita income and income elasticities of demand for
livestock-derived food products, FAO has estimated annual per capita demand for these food
items in 2030 (Tables 2, A.11 and A.12).

5
Table 2 Projected 2030 per capita consumption (kg/year) of livestock-derived food items by
Asian and SSA sub-region (FAT3)
Asia SSA
ASF
S. Asia E. Asia SE. Asia WAF EAF CAF SAF
LR meat 3.0 8.1 6.3 5.2 7.5 11.2 18.3
SR meat 1.6 4.1 0.7 4.3 2.7 2.1 4.4
Pig meat 0.3 53.7 19.1 2.0 2.2 10.1 5.1
Poultry m. 4.3 19.7 18.6 4.9 2.3 19.3 37.8
Eggs 3.2 21.4 6.7 3.3 1.2 1.8 7.7
Milk 101.0 38.6 20.4 24.1 54.2 16.9 66.3
Source: elaborated from FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit, FAT3

Despite the projected doubling of per capita income in WAF and EAF annual per capita demand
for meat is estimated to remain fairly modest (around 15 kg) in these two sub-regions. The
largest relative per capita demand growth for meat (particularly pig and poultry) and eggs is
predicted to occur in CAF. The largest absolute increases in annual per capita consumption
between 2010 and 2030 are projected to occur for pig meat in East Asia (20 kg) and milk in
Southern Africa (28 kg).
Combining projected per capita demand growth of livestock derived food with projections of
population growth provides estimates of aggregate demand growth (Tables 3, A.13 and A.14).
Predicted relative aggregate demand growth between 2010 and 2030 is highest for CAF,
followed by EAF and WAF. Southeast Asia is the Asian sub-region with the highest predicted
relative growth for all livestock-derived food groups while, across all sub-regions, SAF has the
lowest projected relative growth in aggregate demand.

Table 3 Projected relative 2010–2050 growth (%) in aggregate demand of livestock-derived

food by Asian and SSA sub-region
Asia SSA
ASF
S. Asia E. Asia SE. Asia WAF EAF CAF SAF
LR meat 53 54 118 174 123 465 44
SR meat 81 61 154 152 184 225 47
Pig meat 61 63 87 165 203 919 49
Poultry m. 81 104 104 208 151 918 52
Eggs 43 31 47 94 83 497 12
Milk 26 9 40 95 115 296 22
Source: elaborated from FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit, FAT3

Absolute aggregate demand growth for livestock-derived food items by sub-region, over three
20-year periods from 1990 to 2050, is displayed in Figures 7 and 8. Between 1990 and 2010,
East Asian demand growth for meats and eggs was more than triple that of any of the other
sub-regions (>60 MMT vs. <20 MMT). For the 2030–2050 period, demand growth for meats is
projected to be in the order of 5-10 MMT in all sub-regions with the exception of SAF, for which
demand growth is expected to fall below 2 MMT. With respect to milk, South Asia has had the
highest absolute growth between 1990 and 2010 and is predicted to continue to have the
highest demand growth between 2010–2030 and 2030–2050 (40 MMT and 25 MMT
respectively).
Despite the large relative growth in aggregate demand for ASF in WAF, EAF and CAF, absolute
demand growth will only be similar to that predicted for the three Asian sub-regions in the
2030–2050 period. For the period 2010–2030, Asian demand growth for ASF, particularly in
East Asia is still going to be considerably higher than that in any sub-region of SSA. Given the
much higher per capita incomes in East Asia compared to WAF, EAF and CAF, demand will not

6
only be for more but also for higher quality ASF products, thereby exerting pressures on
producers, processors and other value chain actors.

Figure 7 Past and projected absolute aggregate demand growth (million tonnes) for
livestock meats and eggs by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: 1990 and 2010 = production + net imports from FAOSTAT; 2030 and 2050 elaborated from FAO Global
Perspective Studies Unit, FAT3

Figure 8 Past and projected absolute aggregate demand growth (MMT) for milk by Asian and
SSA sub-region

Source: 1990 and 2010 demand = production + net imports from FAOSTAT; 2030 and 2050 elaborated from FAO
Global Perspective Studies Unit, FAT3

7
3. Resource endowments
Land and water are the key natural resources for agriculture and livestock production while
climate and other environmental variables, such as disease for instance, human capital,
infrastructure, technologies and institutional capacity determine the ‘efficiency’ with which
land and water can are used for livestock production to the benefit of society. The abundance
of land and water per person that needs to be supported by these resources strongly
determines land and water use choices, e.g. land and water use to produce food or feed crops.

3.1 Agricultural land

The availability and quality of ‘agricultural’ land, i.e. land that is or can be used for food
production, is a major determinant of agricultural systems and the relationship between crop
and livestock production. Within ‘agricultural’ land, FAO distinguishes between ‘arable’ land
(cropland, used to grow annual or permanent crops) and ‘permanent meadows or pastures’. In
Asia and SSA, the latter mainly comprises natural grasslands and shrublands, which can be used
for grazing livestock but are not well suited for crop production. In the following these two land
classes will be referred to as ‘arable’ land and ‘grasslands’.
In 2010, arable land per capita was less than 0.2 ha in the Asian sub-regions (less than 0.1 ha in
East Asia) while in the sub-regions of SSA it was in the range of 0.2 to 0.3 ha (Figure 9 and Tables
A.17 and A.18), i.e. slightly higher. Major differences between the two regions exist in the per
capita abundance of grassland. The abundance of grassland, which can be exploited by
herbivores, is a major factor determining the importance of pastoral systems within national
or regional agriculture. East Asia is the only Asian sub-region, in which grassland is more
abundant than arable land, per capita availability being in the order of 0.3 ha/person while in
South and Southeast Asia the respective values are 0.03 ha and 0.05 ha respectively. In SSA,
per capita availability of grassland is much higher, ranging from 0.6 ha in WAF to a high of 2.6 ha
in SAF in 2010.

Figure 9 Past and projected per capita agricultural land (ha) by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: elaborated from FAOSTAT (Land Use, Annual Populations) and Deininger and Byerlee, 2011

Taking into account population growth, in 2050, available land resources per capita in WAF,
EAF and CAF would be similar to those of East Asia, i.e. between 0.1 and 0.2 ha of arable land
and between 0.2 and 0.3 ha of grassland per person. Bringing into production potentially

8
arable, non-forest and non-protected, land (Tables A.19 and A.20) would only result in a major
increase in per capita land availability in CAF, while for all other regions the effect would be
negligible.

3.2 Water
Livestock production draws on water resources as drinking water, water to produce feed and
water for cleaning and processing. The amount of drinking water required varies from 5–50
liters per TLU1 per day and, among other, depends on the species, feed intake, level of milk
production, climate etc. However, the main water requirement for livestock production arises
from the water used to produce livestock feed and this is about 100 times the actual daily
requirements for drinking water. Livestock typically require a daily feed intake of dry matter
amounting to about 3 percent of their weight and about 500 l (0.5 m3) of water is required to
produce 1 kg dry matter (Peden et al., 2002). Thus, around 750 l of water are embedded in the
daily feed consumed by an animal of 50 kg live weight. Global average water footprints of ASFs
are high compared to the water footprints of crop-based food items, particularly when
compared per calorie (Table 4).

Table 4 Global average water footprint (green, blue and grey) of selected crop and animal
products
Product l/kg product l/kcal l/g protein
Cereals 1 644 0.51 21
Starchy roots 387 0.47 31
Pulses 4 055 1.19 19
Oil crops 2 364 0.81 16
Milk 1 020 1.82 31
Eggs 3 265 2.29 29
Chicken meat 4 325 3.00 34
Pig meat 5 988 2.15 57
SR meat 8 763 4.25 63
LR meat 15 415 10.19 112
Source: Mekonnen and Hoekstra, 2010

Per capita availability of renewable freshwater by sub-region over time is displayed in Figure
10 (Tables A.21 and A.22). Renewable freshwater per capita is, and is expected to remain,
abundant in CAF and SEA (≥5 000 m3/person in 2050). For South Asia, WAF, EAF and SAF, given
human population growth, renewable freshwater is expected to decline to ≤1 000 m3/person
by 2050 while in East Asia water availability will remain at around 2 000 m3/person/year.

1Tropical Livestock Units (TLU) are livestock numbers converted to a common unit. Commonly
used conversion factors are: cattle = 0.7, sheep = 0.1, goats = 0.1, pigs = 0.2, chicken = 0.01

9
 Figure 10 Past and projected annual per capita renewable freshwater (1 000 m3) by Asian
and SSA sub-region

Source: elaborated from AQUASTAT and FAOSTAT (Annual Populations)

As a general benchmark, countries can be classified as water scarce if there are fewer than
1 000 m3 of renewable freshwater available per person per year, and as water stressed if there
are between 1 000 and 1 667 m3 available per person per year (Falkenmark and Widstrand,
1992). By this definition, South Asia and SAF were water stressed in 2010, while by 2030 water
stress will also be felt in WAF and EAF.
In most regions of the world, agriculture accounts for the majority of water withdrawals, with
irrigated agriculture accounting for more than 70 percent of global total water withdrawals
(Siebert et al., 2010). However, large differences in water use exist between regions and per
capita water withdrawals for agriculture are much higher in Asian sub-regions (200 to
500 m3/year) than in SSA (<200 m3/year). These figures reflect the fact that in SSA crop
production is mainly rainfed while in Asia large tracts of land, used for both food and feed
production are irrigated. According to FAOSTAT, in South, East and Southeast Asia 50, 60 and
33 percent of arable land was equipped for irrigation in 2010 while for WAF, EAF, CAF and SAF
respective proportions were only 2, 5, 1 and 11 percent. On the one hand, irrigation not only
stabilizes but also increases crop yields and thereby enhances human and animal carrying
capacity of given land resources, while on the other hand it facilitates overconsumption of
water.

3.3 Livestock
Livestock resources by sub-region, expressed as TLUs per capita, are shown in Figure 12. In
2010, SAF and EAF had the highest ratio of TLUs per capita (>0.3 TLU/person) while in WAF and
South Asia the ratio was around 0.2 TLU/ person. In CAF, East Asia and Southeast Asia this ratio
was below 0.2 TLU/person. Ruminants account for 90 percent or more of the livestock biomass
in all sub-regions with the exception of East and Southeast Asia, where they only account for
50 and 60 percent respectively (pigs are particularly prominent in East Asia and poultry in
Southeast Asia). With the exception of East and Southeast Asia, TLUs per capita have declined
or stayed relatively stable over the 1990–2010 period.

10
 Figure 12 TLUs per capita by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: elaborated from FAOSTAT (Live Animals and Annual Population)

Livestock densities, i.e. TLUs per agricultural area (arable land and grassland) show a reverse
picture with higher densities in Asian sub-regions (Figure 13). In 2010, South Asia had the
highest overall livestock density (>1 TLU/ha) followed by Southeast Asia and East Asia (0.5 to
0.7 TLU/ha). In SSA, average livestock densities were highest in EAF (0.4 TLU/ha) followed by
WAF (around 0.2 TLU/ha) while they were only slightly above 0.1 TLU/ha in CAF and SAF. In
contrast to TLUs/person, over the 1990-2010 period, livestock densities have increased in all
sub-regions with the exception of SAF.

Figure 13 Livestock density (TLU/ha agricultural land) by Asian and SSA sub-region

Source: elaborated from FAOSTAT (Live Animals and Land Use)

The observed patters are to a large extent a reflection of land and water availability in the sub-
regions. In SSA, extensive grasslands can support large numbers of ruminant livestock relative
to the number of people but livestock carrying capacity is low, hence the relatively high number
of TLU/person and the low number of TLU/ha of agricultural land. South Asia has very limited
agricultural land resources per person, which are mainly used to produce food, but ruminants

11
are used to convert crop residues and by-products into human edible food, thus the high
livestock density per land area. East and Southeast Asia are tapping into global feed markets,
which has allowed these two sub-regions to significantly increase the number of TLU (mainly
pigs and chicken) per area (and per person).
Figs. 14 to 17 depict the spatial distribution of large ruminants, sheep and goats, pigs, and
chicken (TLU/km2) in Asia and SSA. Clustering of livestock production in specific areas within
sub-regions, e.g. chicken and pigs in the East of China or cattle in the Sahelian zone of Western
Africa result in areas of much higher density than the sub-regional average.

Figure 14 Large ruminant density (TLU/km2) in Africa and Asia (2010)

Figure 15 Small ruminant density (TLU/km2) in Africa and Asia (2010)

12
 Figure 16 Pig density (TLU/km2) in Africa and Asia (2010)

Figure 17 Chicken density (TLU/km2) in Africa and Asia (2010)

13
4. Conclusion
Asia and SSA differ significantly in past and projected human population growth. In the
foreseeable future, population growth rates for WAF, EAF and CAF are expected to be around
three times as high as those of the Asian sub-regions. Africa is expected to double its population
over the next 25 years, and it is the only region in the world where the working-age population
is projected to continue expanding beyond 2035. By 2035, Africa’s working-age population is
predicted to increase by 450 million people, or close to 70 percent, and the incidence of
unemployment and underemployment in much of SSA is already high today (WEF, 2017).
In contrast to population growth, Asia’s economic development over the past decades has been
far superior to that of SSA. In Asia, per capita GDP grew by 80 to 120 percent between 1990
and 2010 while in SSA per capita GDP growth ranged from 0 to 40 percent over the same
period. Projected 2010–2050 growth is also higher in Asia (120 to 180 percent) than SSA (80 to
110 percent).
An important reason for the difference between the two regions is that Asia, particularly East
and Southeast Asia, have relied on industrialization as the primary driving force of economic
development while most African economies today are still largely based on agriculture (25
percent of GDP in WAF and EAF vs. <15 percent in East and Southeast Asia), and agriculture is
still the largest employer by far. A second important limitation to Africa’s development has
been the slow growth of productivity in African agriculture. Despite its primary importance for
the economy, there has been no green revolution and growth in adjacent sectors, such as agri-
business and agricultural products processing, remains minimal (Chauvin et al., 2012; WEF,
2017).
Due to the stagnation of SSA’s economic competitiveness vis-à-vis other regions, e.g. East and
Southeast Asia, SSA is struggling to provide sufficient job opportunities to meet the needs of
the burgeoning workforce. Projecting current trends, less than 25 percent of the additional
work force can expect to find stable employment opportunities (WEF, 2017).
SSA’s lower incomes and lower prospects for per capita income growth vis-à-vis Asia determine
per capita demand and demand growth for ASFs. Over the decades 1990 to 2010, both absolute
and relative growth in per capita ASF consumption has generally been higher in Asia than in
SSA and high aggregate growth in SSA is largely a result of population growth.
For regards to ASF products, Aho (2010) presents an analysis of the relationships among per
capita incomes, consumer preferences, and demand for various types of livestock product
based on the extent of processing involved. Only the top income quintile – with annual per
capita incomes above USD 30 000 – is a viable market for high-value processed and
convenience cold chain products, while the 40 percent of consumers in the bottom income
quintiles (< USD 4/day) normally purchase ASFs in live-animal and wet markets. According to
Aho (2010) demand for (partially) processed cold chain products emerges in the middle income
quintile (app USD 8–10/day) and this income group, which largely resides in urban areas,
provides the main stimulus for livestock sector development (vs. mere growth).
High SSA population growth will not only put pressure on labour markets but also erodes SSA’s
per capita availability of agricultural resources (land and water), which are currently higher
than those in Asia. (SSA’s current ‘relative’ abundance of agricultural resources is evidenced by
the fact that 17 of 47 million ha of the land covered by transnational land deals between 2005
and 2009 lies in SSA (Rulli et al., 2013)). By 2050 however, per capita availability of arable land
in SSA is likely to be of the same order of magnitude as in Asia, while, with the exception of
CAF, per capita water resources will be similar to those of presently water-stressed South Asia
and lower than those of East Asia. The UN Development Program projects that by 2025 almost

14
half of all Africans will be living in areas of water scarcity or water stress
(<1 000 m3/person/year) (Connolly, 2014).
At present, per capita abundance of grassland in SSA is much higher than in any of the three
Asian sub-regions. Consequently, extensive pasture-based ruminant production (large and
small) features much more prominently in SSA than in Asia (in South Asia large ruminants are
predominantly fed crop residues). Although per capita availability of grassland will diminish,
grasslands will continue to represent a major share of land useable for food production in SSA.
Thus, ruminants, despite their higher GHG emissions per food energy and protein compared to
poultry and pigs, are likely to remain an important component of SSA’s food security as they
can convert human inedible sources of energy and protein to human food (Tedeschi et al.,
2015).
Densities of pigs and chickens are extraordinarily high in the eastern parts of China, the part of
the country, which also has the highest human population densities. This co-location of large
and dense human and livestock populations gives rise to major health and environmental
threats.

15
References
Aho, P. 2010. Feeding the World and the Role of Poultry. Presentation at Novus Poultry
Roundtable.
Chauvin, N.D., Mulangu, F. & Porto G. 2012. Food Production and Consumption Trends in
Sub-Saharan Africa: Prospects for the Transformation of the Agricultural Sector. UNDP
Working Paper 2012-011.
Connolly, A.J. 2014. A GLIMPSETM into the Future: A Lens through Which to Consider ‘Africa’s
Rising’. International Food and Agribusiness Management Review 17, Special Issue B:
9–18.
Deininger, K. & Byerlee, D. 2011. Rising Global Interest in Farmland - Can It Yield Sustainable
and Equitable Benefits? World Bank, Washington, DC.
Falkenmark, M. & Widstrand, C. 1992. Population and Water Resources: a Delicate Balance.
Population Bulletin (47) 3: 1–36.
Mekonnen, M.M. & Hoekstra, A.Y., 2010. The green, blue and grey water footprint of farm
animals and animal products. Value of Water Res. Rep. Ser. No. 48. UNESCO-IHE, Delft,
the Netherlands.
Peden, D., Tadesse G. & Mammo M. 2002. Improving the water productivity of livestock: An
opportunity for poverty reduction. Available at
http://www.ilri.org/publications/cdrom/integratedwater/iwmi/Documents/Papers/Do
n.htm
Rulli, M.C., Saviori, A. & D’Odorico P. 2013. Global land and water grabbing. PNAS 110(3):
892–897. doi/10.1073/pnas.1213163110
Siebert, S., Burke, J., Faures, J.M., Frenken, K., Hoogeveen, J., Döll, P. & Portmann, F.T.
2010. Groundwater use for irrigation – a global inventory. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 14:
1863–1880. doi:10.5194/hess-14-1863-2010.
Steinfeld, H. & Chilonda, P. 2006. Old players, new players. In: Livestock Report 2006. FAO,
Rome, 3–14.
Tedeschi, L.O., Muir, J.P., Riley, D.G. & Fox, D.G. 2015. The role of ruminant animals in
sustainable livestock intensification programs. International Journal of Sustainable
Development & World Ecology 22(5): 452–465. doi: 10.1080/13504509.2015.1075441
World Economic Forum. 2017. The Africa Competitiveness Report 2017. Available at:
https://www.weforum.org/reports/africa-competitiveness-report-2017

16
Annex 1. Socio-economic trends

Table A.1 Human populations (million) and relative changes by Asian Sub-region between
1990 and 2050
Population (million) Change (%)
Population
1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
Total 1 189 1 703 2 147 2 424 43 26 13
South

Rural 876 1 131 1 210 1 098 29 7 -9

Urban 316 551 875 1 214 74 59 39
Total 1 369 1 575 1 650 1 567 15 5 -5
Rural 912 728 481 355 -20 -34 -26
East

Urban 467 866 1 208 1 250 85 39 4

Total 446 597 725 792 34 21 9
S.East

Rural 304 331 320 280 9 -4 -12

Urban 140 266 403 508 90 52 26
Source: FAOSTAT (Annual Population)

Table A.2 Human populations (million) and relative changes by SSA Sub-region between 1990
and 2050
Population (million) Change (%)
Population
1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
Total 180 308 516 798 71 68 55
West

Rural 125 178 237 304 42 33 28

Urban 54 127 279 511 134 120 83
Total 198 343 579 878 73 69 52
Rural 163 262 387 491 61 48 27
East

Urban 36 81 189 379 127 134 100

Total 71 131 232 369 84 77 59
Centr.

Rural 47 73 102 124 54 39 22

Urban 23 52 108 192 130 108 78
Total 42 59 70 78 40 19 11
South

Rural 22 24 22 19 12 -10 -11

Urban 21 35 46 55 69 32 21
Source: FAOSTAT (Annual Population)

17
Table A.3 Aggregate and per capita total and agricultural GDP (million PPP USD 2011) and
absolute and relative (%) changes between 1990 and 2010 by Asian sub-region
Million PPP USD (2011) Change 1990–2010
Sub-region GDP
1990 2010 Abs %
South Total 2 707 698 8 051 768 5 344 070 197
Agriculture 680 245 1 259 903 579 658 85
Total p.c. 2 277 4 728 2 451 108
Agric. p.c. 572 740 168 29
East Total 6 344 758 19 157 570 12 812 812 202
Agriculture 323 930 1 022 696 698 766 216
Total p.c. 4 636 12 161 7 525 162
Agric. p.c. 237 649 413 174
Southeast Total 1 977 288 5 071 886 3 094 598 157
Agriculture 299 431 602 755 303 324 101
Total p.c. 4 436 8 500 4 064 92
Agric. p.c. 672 1 010 338 50
Source: Elaborated from World Bank (International Comparison Program database) and FAOSTAT data

Table A.4 Aggregate and per capita total and agricultural GDP (million PPP USD 2011) and
absolute and relative (%) changes between 1990 and 2010 by SSA sub-region
Million PPP USD (2011) Change 1990–2010
Sub-region GDP
1990 2010 Abs %
Western Total 421 939 1 071 945 650 005 154
Agriculture 102 328 270 353 168 026 164
Total p.c. 2 340 3 480 1 140 49
Agric. p.c. 568 878 310 55
Eastern Total 235 981 561 146 325 165 138
Agriculture 72 197 137 426 65 230 90
Total p.c. 1 191 1 637 447 38
Agric. p.c. 364 401 37 10
Central Total 170 285 338 437 168 152 99
Agriculture 39 069 36 907 -2 162 -6
Total p.c. 2 402 2 591 190 8
Agric. p.c. 551 283 -268 -49
Southern Total 389 624 672 882 283 258 73
Agriculture 17 915 18 214 299 2
Total p.c. 9 277 11 385 2 109 23
Agric. p.c. 427 308 -118 -28
Source: Elaborated from World Bank (International Comparison Program database) and FAOSTAT data

18
Table A.5 Poverty headcount ratio at USD 1.90 a day (PPP 2011) (% population) in 1990
(average 1988–1992) and 2010 (average 2008–2012)
Sub-region / % below USD 1.90 Change 1990–2010
country 1990 2010 Abs. %
South Asia
Bangladesh 44.0 18.5 -25.5 -58
India na 26.2
Nepal na 15.0
Pakistan 59.0 8.1 -50.9 -86
Sri Lanka 8.7 2.2 -6.5 -75
East Asia
PR China 66.6 10.1 -56.5 -85
Southeast Asia
Indonesia 57.3 16.3 -41.0 -72
Cambodia na 5.0
Lao PDR 22.9 16.7 -6.2 -27
Philippines 25.8 12.5 -13.3 -52
Thailand 10.1 0.1 -10.0 -99
Viet Nam 49.2 8.1 -41.1 -84
Source: WB WDI, 2017

Table A.6 Poverty headcount ratio at USD 1.90 a day (PPP 2011) (% population) in 1990
(average 1988–1992) and 2010 (average 2008–2012)
Sub-region / % below USD 1.90 Change 1990–2010
country 1990 2010 Abs. %
W. Africa
Burkina Faso na 55.3
Ghana 43.6 na
Mali na 49.3
Niger 78.2 50.3 -27.9 -36
Nigeria 57.1 53.5 -3.6 -6
Senegal 68.4 38.0 -30.4 -44
E. Africa
Kenya 23.1 na
Mozambique na 68.7
Tanzania 70.4 46.6 -23.8 -34
Uganda 77.6 38.1 -39.5 -51
Zambia 54.1 64.4 10.3 19
C. Africa
Angola na 30.1
CAR 84.3 66.3 -18.0 -21
Congo, Rep na 37.0
DRC na 77.1
S. Africa
Botswana na 18.2
Namibia na 22.6
RSA na 16.7
Source: WB WDI, 2017

19
Table A.7 Per capita GDP (PPP USD 2005) and relative changes in Asian Sub-regions between
1990 and 2050
Sub- Per capita GDP (PPP USD 2005) Change (%)
region 1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
South 1 498 3 348 9 563 22 465 123 186 135
East 4 957 8 619 19 338 25 017 74 124 29
S.East 2 349 4 715 10 636 19 067 101 126 79
Source: Elaborated from SSP Public Database (SSP2 Scenario in OECD Env-Growth Model), FAOSTAT and UNDESA

Table A.8 Per capita GDP (PPP USD 2005) and relative changes in SSA Sub-regions between
1990 and 2050
Sub- Per capita GDP (PPP USD 2005) Change (%)
region 1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
West 1 152 1 535 3 260 6 557 33 112 101
East 922 990 2 017 4 307 7 104 114
Central 996 895 1 623 3 357 -10 81 107
South 7 211 8 836 16 056 24 668 23 82 54
Source: Elaborated from SSP Public Database (SSP2 Scenario in OECD Env-Growth Model), FAOSTAT and UNDESA

Table A.9 Per capita consumption (accounting for imports, exports and losses) of main
livestock food items (kg/year) and absolute and relative (%) change between 1990 and 2010
by Asian sub-region
kg/capita/year Change 1990–2010
Sub-region Product
1990 2010 Abs %
South LR meat 2.9 2.5 -0.4 -13
SR meat 1.4 1.1 -0.3 -23
Pig meat 0.4 0.2 -0.1 -36
Poultry m. 0.9 3.1 2.2 242
All meats 5.6 6.9 1.3 23
Eggs 1.3 2.5 1.1 86
Milk 54.7 82.2 27.5 50
East LR meat 1.8 5.4 3.6 194
SR meat 0.9 2.7 1.7 187
Pig meat 18.8 34.0 15.2 81
Poultry m. 4.2 13.2 8.9 210
All meats 25.7 55.3 29.6 115
Eggs 7.5 17.9 10.4 140
Milk 12.8 33.8 21.0 165
Southeast LR meat 2.5 3.8 1.2 49
SR meat 0.3 0.4 0.1 41
Pig meat 6.5 12.3 5.9 90
Poultry m. 4.4 11.3 6.9 159
All meats 13.7 27.8 14.1 103
Eggs 3.4 5.6 2.2 64
Milk 9.6 17.2 7.5 78
Source: FAOSTAT (Food Supply)

20
Table A.10 Per capita consumption (accounting for imports and exports) of main livestock
food items (kg/year) and absolute and relative (%) change between 1990 and 2010 by SSA
sub-region
kg/capita/year Change 1990–2010
Sub-region Product
1990 2010 Abs %
Western LR meat 3.4 3.3 -0.1 -3
SR meat 2.1 2.9 0.8 39
Pig meat 1.0 1.3 0.3 25
Poultry m. 1.8 2.9 1.0 55
All meats 8.3 10.4 2.1 25
Eggs 2.2 2.5 0.3 13
Milk 9.0 15.0 6.1 67
Eastern LR meat 5.8 5.7 -0.1 -2
SR meat 1.7 1.4 -0.3 -17
Pig meat 1.0 1.3 0.4 36
Poultry m. 1.6 1.8 0.3 17
All meats 10.1 10.2 0.1 1
Eggs 1.1 1.0 -0.1 -13
Milk 39.8 42.8 2.9 7
Central LR meat 8.2 6.7 -1.5 -19
SR meat 1.6 2.0 0.4 22
Pig meat 1.9 3.3 1.5 79
Poultry m. 1.9 7.0 5.2 278
All meats 13.6 19.0 5.4 40
Eggs 0.6 0.8 0.3 44
Milk 16.7 15.8 -0.9 -5
Southern LR meat 16.4 15.4 -1.1 -7
SR meat 4.7 3.7 -1.0 -22
Pig meat 3.3 4.1 0.8 26
Poultry m. 13.7 29.8 16.1 117
All meats 38.1 53.0 14.9 39
Eggs 3.9 6.1 2.2 56
Milk 39.2 38.5 -0.7 -2
Source: FAOSTAT (Food Supply)

21
Table A.11 Per capita demand for ASFs (kg/year) and relative changes in Asian Sub-regions
between 1990 and 2050
Supply (kg/capita/year) Change (%)
Product
1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
LR meat 2.9 2.5 3.0 3.5 -13 20 17
SR meat 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.8 -23 45 13
South

Pig meat 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 -36 50 33

Poultry m. 0.9 3.1 4.3 4.8 242 39 12
Eggs 1.3 2.5 3.2 3.4 86 28 6
Milk 54.7 82.2 101.0 100.2 50 23 -1
LR meat 1.8 5.4 8.1 8.7 194 50 7
SR meat 0.9 2.7 4.1 4.3 187 52 5
Pig meat 18.8 34.0 53.7 59.5 81 58 11
East

Poultry m. 4.2 13.2 19.7 20.5 210 49 4

Eggs 7.5 17.9 21.4 21.6 140 20 1
Milk 12.8 33.8 38.6 35.9 165 14 -7
LR meat 2.5 3.8 6.3 7.1 49 66 13
SR meat 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 41 75 14
S.East

Pig meat 6.5 12.3 19.1 22.0 90 55 15

Poultry m. 4.4 11.3 18.6 20.3 159 65 9
Eggs 3.4 5.6 6.7 6.9 64 20 3
Milk 9.6 17.2 20.4 19.2 78 19 -6
Source: 1990 and 2010 FAOSTAT; 2030 and 2050 FAO Global Perspective Studies Unit, FAT3

22
Table A.12 Per capita demand for ASFs (kg/year) and relative changes in SSA Sub-regions
between 1990 and 2050
kg / capita / year Change (%)
Product
1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
LR meat 3.4 3.3 5.2 6.2 -3 58 19
SR meat 2.1 2.9 4.3 5.1 39 48 19
Western

Pig meat 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.4 25 54 20

Poultry m. 1.8 2.9 4.9 5.3 55 69 8
Eggs 2.2 2.5 3.3 3.4 13 32 3
Milk 9.0 15.0 24.1 25.9 67 61 7
LR meat 5.8 5.7 7.5 8.3 -2 32 11
SR meat 1.7 1.4 2.7 3.0 -17 93 11
Eastern

Pig meat 1.0 1.3 2.2 2.6 36 69 18

Poultry m. 1.6 1.8 2.3 2.5 17 28 9
Eggs 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 -13 20 8
Milk 39.8 42.8 54.2 54.3 7 27 0
LR meat 8.2 6.7 11.2 11.6 -19 67 4
SR meat 1.6 2.0 2.1 2.3 22 5 10
Central

Pig meat 1.9 3.3 10.1 10.7 79 206 6

Poultry m. 1.9 7.0 19.3 19.4 278 176 1
Eggs 0.6 0.8 1.8 1.9 44 125 6
Milk 16.7 15.8 16.9 16.4 -5 7 -3
LR meat 16.4 15.4 18.3 19.5 -7 19 7
SR meat 4.7 3.7 4.4 4.8 -22 19 9
Southern

Pig meat 3.3 4.1 5.1 5.7 26 24 12

Poultry m. 13.7 29.8 37.8 39.1 117 27 3
Eggs 3.9 6.1 7.7 8.2 56 26 6
Milk 39.2 38.5 66.3 66.0 -2 72 0
Source: 1990 and 2010 FAOSTAT; 2030 and 2050 FAO Global Perspective Studies, FAT3

23
Table A.13 Aggregate demand and demand growth (million metric tonnes) for ASFs in Asian
Sub-regions between 1990 and 2050
Aggregate demand (MMT) Growth (MMT)
Product
1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
LR meat 3.5 4.2 6.4 8.5 0.7 2.2 2.0
SR meat 1.7 1.9 3.4 4.4 0.2 1.5 0.9
South

Pig meat 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.3

Poultry m. 1.0 5.1 9.2 11.6 4.1 4.1 2.4
Eggs 1.8 4.8 6.9 8.2 3.0 2.1 1.4
Milk 77.4 172.6 216.8 242.9 95.2 44.2 26.0
LR meat 2.5 8.7 13.4 13.6 6.2 4.7 0.3
SR meat 1.3 4.2 6.8 6.7 2.9 2.6 0.0
Pig meat 26.0 54.3 88.6 93.2 28.3 34.3 4.6
East

Poultry m. 4.7 15.9 32.5 32.1 11.2 16.6 -0.4

Eggs 9.6 27.0 35.3 33.8 17.4 8.3 -1.5
Milk 20.6 58.4 63.7 56.3 37.8 5.3 -7.4
LR meat 1.1 2.1 4.6 5.6 1.0 2.5 1.1
SR meat 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1
S.East

Pig meat 3.0 7.4 13.8 17.4 4.4 6.4 3.6

Poultry m. 1.8 6.6 13.5 16.1 4.8 6.9 2.6
Eggs 1.4 3.3 4.9 5.5 1.9 1.6 0.6
Milk 4.4 10.6 14.8 15.2 6.2 4.2 0.4
Source: 1990 and 2010 = production + net imports from FAOSTAT; 2030 and 2050 elaborated from FAO Global
Perspective Studies Unit, FAT3

24
Table A.14 Aggregate demand and demand growth (million metric tonnes) for ASFs in SSA
Sub-regions between 1990 and 2050
Aggregate demand (MMT) Growth (MMT)
Product
1990 2010 2030 2050 90–10 10–30 30–50
LR meat 0.61 0.98 2.68 4.95 0.37 1.70 2.26
SR meat 0.37 0.88 2.22 4.07 0.51 1.34 1.85
Western

Pig meat 0.18 0.39 1.03 1.92 0.21 0.64 0.88

Poultry m. 0.33 0.82 2.53 4.23 0.49 1.71 1.70
Eggs 0.46 0.88 1.70 2.71 0.42 0.82 1.01
Milk 2.70 6.38 12.44 20.67 3.68 6.06 8.23
LR meat 1.13 1.95 4.34 7.29 0.82 2.39 2.94
SR meat 0.41 0.55 1.56 2.63 0.14 1.01 1.07
Eastern

Pig meat 0.19 0.42 1.27 2.28 0.23 0.85 1.01

Poultry m. 0.27 0.53 1.33 2.20 0.26 0.80 0.86
Eggs 0.25 0.38 0.69 1.14 0.13 0.31 0.45
Milk 7.32 14.57 31.38 47.68 7.25 16.81 16.29
LR meat 0.31 0.46 2.60 4.28 0.15 2.14 1.68
SR meat 0.08 0.15 0.49 0.85 0.07 0.34 0.36
Central

Pig meat 0.10 0.23 2.34 3.95 0.13 2.11 1.61

Poultry m. 0.08 0.44 4.48 7.16 0.36 4.04 2.68
Eggs 0.03 0.07 0.42 0.70 0.04 0.35 0.28
Milk 0.83 0.99 3.92 6.05 0.16 2.93 2.13
LR meat 0.69 0.89 1.28 1.52 0.20 0.39 0.24
SR meat 0.20 0.21 0.31 0.37 0.01 0.10 0.07
Southern

Pig meat 0.14 0.24 0.36 0.44 0.10 0.12 0.09

Poultry m. 0.57 1.74 2.65 3.05 1.17 0.91 0.40
Eggs 0.22 0.48 0.54 0.64 0.26 0.06 0.10
Milk 2.72 3.81 4.64 5.15 1.09 0.83 0.51
Source: 1990 and 2010 = production + net imports from FAOSTAT; 2030 and 2050 elaborated from FAO Global
Perspective Studies Unit, FAT3

25
Annex 2. Natural resource endowments
Table A.15 Land areas (1 000 ha) and absolute and relative (%) change between 1990 and
2010 by Asian sub-region
Area (1 000 ha) Change 1990–2010
Sub-region Land type
1990 2010 Abs %
South Agric. 333 490 315 779 -17 711 -5.3
Arable1 239 051 237 721 -1 330 -0.6
Grassland 94 439 78 058 -16 381 -17.4
Forest 87 995 93 406 5 412 6.2
East Agric. 642 638 638 003 -4 636 -0.7
Arable 143 388 132 093 -11 296 -7.9
Grassland 499 250 505 910 6 660 1.3
Forest 209 198 250 504 41 306 19.7
Southeast Agric. 108 052 127 573 19 522 18.1
Arable 90 320 110 694 20 374 22.6
Grassland 17 732 16 879 -853 -4.8
Forest 242 046 214 594 -27 452 -11.3
1incl. area under permanent crops
Source: FAOSTAT (Land Use)

Table A.16 Land areas (1 000 ha) and absolute and relative (%) change between 1990 and
2010 by SSA sub-region
Area (1 000 ha) Change 1990–2010
Sub-region Land type
1990 2010 Abs %
Western Agric. 243 426 282 832 39 406 16
Arable1 71 473 99 037 27 564 39
Grassland 171 953 183 795 11 842 7
Forest 85 803 70 353 -15 450 -18
Eastern Agric. 298 729 308 730 10 001 3
Arable 52 831 70 324 17 493 33
Grassland 245 898 238 406 -7 492 -3
Forest 227 183 196 249 -30 934 -14
Central Agric. 161 894 164 549 2 655 2
Arable 24 985 27 379 2 394 10
Grassland 136 909 137 170 261 0
Forest 321 562 306 378 -15 184 -5
Southern Agric. 163 842 165 109 1 267 1
Arable 14 696 14 549 -147 -1
Grassland 149 146 150 560 1 414 1
Forest 32 233 28 489 -3 744 -12
1incl. area under permanent crops
Source: FAOSTAT (Land Use)

26
Table A.17 Agricultural land area per population (ha/person) and absolute and relative (%)
change between 1990 and 2010 by Asian sub-region
ha / person Change 1990–2010
Sub-region Land type
1990 2010 Abs %
South Agric. 0.28 0.19 -0.09 -34
Arable 0.20 0.14 -0.06 -31
Grassland 0.08 0.05 -0.03 -42
East Agric. 0.47 0.40 -0.06 -14
Arable 0.10 0.08 -0.02 -20
Grassland 0.36 0.32 -0.04 -12
Southeast Agric. 0.24 0.21 -0.03 -12
Arable 0.20 0.19 -0.02 -8
Grassland 0.04 0.03 -0.01 -29
Source: elaborated from FAOSTAT (Land Use and Annual Population)

Table A.18 Agricultural land area per population (ha/person) and absolute and relative (%)
change between 1990 and 2010 by SSA sub-region
ha / person Change 1990–2010
Sub-region Land type
1990 2010 Abs %
Western Agric. 1.35 0.92 -0.43 -32
Arable 0.40 0.32 -0.07 -19
Grassland 0.95 0.60 -0.36 -37
Eastern Agric. 1.51 0.90 -0.61 -40
Arable 0.27 0.21 -0.06 -23
Grassland 1.24 0.70 -0.54 -44
Central Agric. 2.28 1.26 -1.02 -45
Arable 0.35 0.21 -0.14 -41
Grassland 1.93 1.05 -0.88 -46
Southern Agric. 3.90 2.79 -1.11 -28
Arable 0.35 0.25 -0.10 -30
Grassland 3.55 2.55 -1.00 -28
Source: elaborated from FAOSTAT (Land Use and Annual Population)

Table A.19 Total (million ha) non-protected and currently non-cultivated forest and non-
forest land areas suitable for crop production and per capita cultivable non-forest land by
Asian sub-region
Sub-region Forest area Non-forest area Non-forest ‘reserve’ land
(ha/person)
Million ha 2030 2050
South 0.0 0.0 0.000 0.000
East 10.5 2.2 0.001 0.001
Southeast 29.4 10.7 0.015 0.013
Source: Fischer and Shah, 2010, in Deininger and Byerlee, 2011

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Table A.20 Total (million ha) non-protected and currently non-cultivated forest and non-
forest land areas suitable for crop production and per capita cultivable non-forest land by SSA
sub-region
Sub-region Forest area Non-forest area Non-forest ‘reserve’ land
(ha/person)
Million ha 2030 2050
Western 1.0 7.6 0.015 0.010
Eastern 29.1 63.5 0.110 0.072
Central 272.0 242.5 1.045 0.657
Southern 0.9 3.6 0.051 0.046
Source: Fischer and Shah, 2010, in Deininger and Byerlee, 2011

Table A.21 Annual total (billion m3) and per capita renewable freshwater resources (m3) and
absolute and relative (%) change between 1990 and 2010 by Asian sub-region
Freshwater m3 / capita Change 1990–2010
Sub-region 3
(billion m ) 1990 2010 Abs %
South 2 111 1 795 1 241 -554 -31
East 3 478 2 580 2 209 -371 -14
Southeast 5 042 12 552 8 441 -4 111 -33
Source: elaborated from WB-WDI 2017 (Freshwater Resources)

Table A.22 Annual total (billion m3) and per capita renewable freshwater resources (m3) and
absolute and relative (%) change between 1990 and 2010 by SSA sub-region
Total (billion m3 / capita Change 1990–2010
Sub-region 3
m) 1990 2010 Abs %
Western 843 4 881 2 846 -2 035 -42
Eastern 867 3 776 2 547 -1 229 -33
Central 1 891 26 635 14 527 -12 107 -45
Southern 62 1 455 1 046 -409 -28
Source: elaborated from WB-WDI 2017 (Freshwater Resources)

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 CA3609EN/1/03.19
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