UJIAN TENGAH SEMESTER

PROGRAM S1 PRASETIYA MULYA

SEMESTER GANJIL ANGKATAN 2018

Mata Kuliah : DECISION ANALYSIS

Hari & Tanggal : Selasa, 5 Januari 2021
Waktu : 120 menit
Sifat : Open notes, no gadgets, calculator allowed

1. (25 points)
The local Kopi Lewat coffeeshop has a drive-through window. Customers in cars arrive at
the window at the rate of 10 per hour. It requires an average of 4 minutes (exponentially
distributed) to take and fill an order. The coffeeshop has a service goal of an average
waiting time in the queue of 3 minutes.
a. What model suits the current system?
b. What is the average waiting time in the queue of the current system?
c. Will the current system meet the coffeeshop’s service goal?
d. If the coffeeshop is not meeting its service goal, it can add a second drive-through
window that will reduce the service time per customer to 2.5 minutes. Calculate the
new average waiting time in the queue!
e. Will the additional window enable the coffeeshop to meet its service goal?
f. During the 2-hour morning period, the arrival rate of drive-in customers increases to
20 per hour. Will the two-window system be able to achieve the coffeeshop’s service
goal during this rush period? Do the calculation!

2. (20 points)
An ATM has an arrival rate of 20 customers per hour. The mean service rate is 60 people
per hour. Determine:
a. Determine the utilization factor!
b. What is the average time a customer spends waiting in the queueing system?
c. What is the expected number of customers in the queue?
d. What is the probability of having a 5th person in the line?
e. What is the probability of having exactly 5 customers in the line?
3. (15 points)
From 3:00 p.m. to 8:00 p.m. the local Grand Pasar Supermarket has a steady stream of
customers. Customers finish shopping and arrive at the checkout area at a rate of 70 per
hour. It is assumed that when customers arrive at the cash registers, they will divide
themselves relatively evenly so that all the checkout lines contain an equal number. The
average checkout time at a register is 7 minutes (exponentially distributed). The store
manager’s service goal is for customers to be out of the store within 12 minutes (on
average) after they complete their shopping and arrive at a cash register. How many cash
registers must the store have open to achieve the manager’s service goal?

4. (40 points)
Grace LeMans wants to purchase a new mountain bike, and she is considering three
models, the Xandu Mark III, the Yellow Hawk Z9, and the Zodiak MB5. Grace has identified
three criteria for selection on which she will base her decision: purchase price, gear action,
and weight/durability. Grace has developed the following pairwise comparison matrices
for the three criteria: Grace has done pairwise comparisons and obtained the following
results:
• In terms of purchase price, bike X is three times better than bike Y.
• In terms of purchase price, bike X is six times better than bike Z.
• In terms of purchase price, bike Y is two times better than bike Z.
• In terms of gear action, bike Y is three times better than bike X.
• In terms of gear action, bike Z is seven times better than bike X.
• In terms of gear action, bike Z is four times better than bike Y.
• In terms of weight/durability, bike X is equal to bike Z.
• In terms of weight/durability, bike X is three times better than Y.
• In terms of weight/durability, bike Z is two times better than bike Y.
Grace has prioritized her decision criteria according to the following pairwise
comparisons:
Criteria Price Gears Weight
Price 1 3 5
Gears 1/3 1 2
Weight 1/5 1/2 1
Give the pairwise comparison matrices for the three criteria and using AHP, develop an
overall ranking of the three bikes Grace is considering. (Round numbers to 4 decimal
places!)

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