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A forward contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange an asset for a pre-specified price
on a specific date in the future.
Example 1
In one year’s time, Party A agrees to purchase 8,000 barrels of oil from Party B at $50 per barrel.
$40,000 USD
Party A Party B
Example 2
In one month’s time, Party A agrees to purchase $500,000 USD from Party B for $675,000 CAD.
Example 3
In five year’s time, Party A agrees to purchase 600 troy ounces of gold from Party B for $900,000 USD.
Forwards are over-the-counter contracts. Although they can be used for speculating, the
customizability makes forwards very useful for hedging.
For example, industries that heavily rely on commodities, such as an airline on jet fuel, can hedge the
price of fuel using forwards to reduce volatile prices.
Hedging VS Speculating
Futures contracts are often used for hedging; however, the liquidity of futures contracts and the ability
to leverage through margins makes futures attractive for speculating.
• Ticker: an individual code that exchanges • Cash settlement: gains and losses exchanged
assign to the commodity future in cash entirely
• Initial margin: the amount of money that
needs to be deposited as a guarantee
• Price: the agreed contract price
A major difference between forwards and futures is that futures contracts are settled daily.
A counterparty’s margin account is credited or debited as the spot price of the underlying asset changes.
If the margin account of the buyer or seller falls below a certain point, known as the minimum required
margin or secondary margin, a margin call will happen.
The counterparty is required to deposit more money into the margin account to retain their position.
Exposure: $50/bbl x 1,000 bbls x 10 contracts = $500,000 Tick: $0.01 per barrel
Initial Margin: $5,000 x 10 contracts = $50,000 Tick Value: 1,000 x $0.01 x 10 contracts = $100
Imagine that you plan to buy 1,000 barrels of oil in 1 year’s time. There are two strategies you can
consider:
Borrow money to buy the 1,000 barrels of oil Buy the futures contract for 1,000 barrels of
at the spot price and hold it for one year. oil with an expiration in one year’s time.
At the one-year mark you would pay back the The cost in this scenario would simply be the
amount and any interest. cost of the futures contract.
Let’s assume the spot price is $50/barrel, the cost of borrowing is 5%, and the cost of storing 1,000
barrels of oil is $2,000.
Let’s also assume a 1-year futures contract is priced at $55/barrel (or $55,000 per contract).
Cost = Spot Price + Carry Cost (Interest + Cost = Futures Contract Price
Storage)
Cost = $50 x 1,000 + ($50 x 1,000) x 5% + $2,000 Cost = $55,000
Cost = $54,500
If this were the case, what could an investor do to profit from this situation?
If the spot price and futures price are not in equilibrium, there is an arbitrage opportunity:
Note: small arbitrage opportunities may not be exploited because of transaction costs in practice.
The difference between the futures price and spot price is not the expected price appreciation or
depreciation of the underlying asset.
Price
Contango Market
Spot Price
Backwardation Market
Settlement
Increasing Price
Decreasing Price
An investor living in Seattle, Washington, wishes to purchase 100 troy oz of gold in June from Wisconsin.
The storage fees are 2%, the cost of insurance is 3%, and the cost of transportation is $5 per troy oz.
The investor borrows $170,000 and incurs a total interest expense of $500. The current price of gold is
$1,600/troy oz, and the futures contract is trading at $1,697/troy oz.
How much will it cost this investor to purchase 100 troy oz of gold?
Strategy Two
(Futures $169,700
Contract)
What will happen to the spot price and futures contract prices of gold?
• Crude oil (and distillates), • Steel, copper, nickel, tin • Gold, silver, platinum,
natural gas, electricity palladium
Commodity: Gold
Gold Ticker
Commodity: Gold
GC: Exchange Symbol
Commodity: Gold
J: Delivery Month
Commodity: Gold
J: Delivery Month
Commodity: Gold
0: Year
Contract Size
Price &
Contract Value
If not, the trader needs to close out their position before the
first notice day.
First Notice
Delivery Month
Futures Schedule
Bid/Ask Spread
0.30
Futures traders will receive the
0.10 best execution fills where there
0.20
0.20 is the greatest liquidity.
0.20
0.40
0.30
0.40
1.30
2.10
13.50
Open Interest
Open Interest
Spot
30%
FX Swaps
29%
Forwards
15%
An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another, also known as an FX pair.
FX that trades for T+2 (trade date plus two) settlement is called “spot”.
Example:
A trade of $1 million USD/JPY at 110.15 means that in two days’ time:
The buyer of JPY will remit The seller of JPY will remit
$1,000,000 USD. ¥110,150,000.
Currency codes fall under ISO code 4217. They are three letters long and comprised of:
US D
GBP CAD THB
Country Currency
Base Quote
Currency Currency
USD / SEK
USD / JPY
Base Quote
Currency Currency
Historically, we used the stronger currency as the base currency, but there are exceptions.
Higher Priority
Euro
Pound Sterling
Australian Dollar
Why is…
VS
USD/JPY = 110.15 USD/CAD = 1.3067
2 Decimals 4 Decimals
Remember that the “0.” is also considered a sig fig so NZDUSD is 0.6593.
The market quotes prices using the last two digits in a price.
EUR/USD = 1.1009-14
Bid/ask spread of
5 pips (points)
ON: Overnight
SP: Spot
1M: 1 Month
1 Euro in the future buys more US Dollars
1Y: 1 Year
A U.S. construction company, Buildco, signed a JPY 500 million contract to buy elevators from Liftco, a
Japanese company.
The contract will be paid in a year’s time. The USD/JPY spot rate is 110.00.
iUSD = 1.50%
USD $4.55MM $4.62MM
Forward price is the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates.
1 + i𝒒 ⋅ t
F=S
1 + i𝒃 ⋅ t
Where:
F = Forward rate
S = Spot rate
iUSD = 1.50%
USD $4.54MM $4.61MM
1 + 0.001⋅ 1
USD/JPY Spot USD/JPY Forward F = 110.00
= 110.00 =?
1 + 0.015⋅ 1
= 108.48
Forward differentials, or forward points, is the difference between the spot rate and the forward rate.
=
=
=
Forward Rates 1.3033-1.3038 Forward Rates 1.3011-1.3014
5 points 3 points
A client needs to sell forward USD $100 million for British pound sterling on January 3, 2021.
Forward Value Date January 3, 2021 275 6-Month Forward Points 32.5-34.5
A client needs to sell forward USD $100 million for British pound sterling on January 3, 2021.
• 3-month
• 6-month
• 1-year
Equity index futures allow investors to buy or sell an index today that will be settled at a future date.
Speculation Hedging
Example: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). DJIA represents a portfolio of 30 large corporate
companies such as:
For example, the CME S&P 500 contract comes in three sizes:
CME
Three Contract
Sizes Available
Micro E-mini
S&P 500 E-mini S&P 500
S&P 500
U: September
0: 2020
Quarterly
Speculating
OR Hedging
Alternate Calculation:
Since 4 ticks equals 1 index point;
500 ticks ÷ 4 ticks/index point = 125 index points
125 index points x $50 multiplier = $6,250
Decreasing Price
Rx N
Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• Fair Value of the Future = The value of the equity index future
based on the spot index plus carry costs less carry returns
• Cash Index = The term used to reflect the spot index. For the
S&P 500, it is called the S&P 500 Cash Index.
• R = Interest rate required (derived from yield curve)
• N = Number of days until expiration
• Dividends = Dividends realized until expiration (denoted as S&P
points)
If today is July 14, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
September 20, 2024?
Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 3,200
• Interest Rate: 0.30%
• Days Until Expiration: 68 (9 weeks, 5 days)
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.89%
If today is July 14, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
September 20, 2024?
Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 3,200
• Interest Rate: 0.30%
• Days Until Expiration: 68 (9 weeks, 5 days) Convert to S&P Dividend Points:
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.89%
Cash Index (3,200) x Dividend Yield (1.89%) = 60.48
68
60.48 S&P points/year x = 11.424
360
What would you do if the Equity Index
Future was trading at 3,200?
0.003 x 68
Fair Value of the Future = 3,200 x 1 + – 11.424 = 3,190.39
360
Index Arbitrage Opportunity: Index Futures Price ≠ Fair Value of the Future
If an equity index future is trading at a premium, it will trigger the bank to buy the underlying stocks in
the index and sell the index future.
• Fair Value
• Rich/Cheap
If today is July 18, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
December 20, 2024?
Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 2,915
• Interest Rate: 0.25%
• Days Until Expiration: 155 (22 weeks, 1 day)
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.52%
If today is July 18, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
December 20, 2024?
Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 2,915
• Interest Rate: 0.25%
• Days Until Expiration: 155 (22 weeks, 1 day) Convert to S&P Dividend Points:
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.52%
Cash Index (2,915) x Dividend Yield (1.52%) = 44.308
155
44.308 S&P points/year x = 19.077
360
0.0025 x 155
Fair Value of the Future = 2,915 x 1 + – 19.007 = 2,899.06
360
Money market futures are futures based on short-term interest rates (STIR).
Normally:
Contract Size x Tick Size
= Value of 1.0 pt
Thus:
5,000,000 x 0.0025
= $12,500
100 – 99.9250
= 0.075 or 7.5bps
Volume-Weighted Average
A long position:
A trader that has bought now with the
expectation that the price will rise also
expects rates to fall.
Buy the future for 99.90 Implied rates have decreased by 5bps
Sell the future for 99.95
A short position:
A trader that has sold now with the expectation
that the price will fall also expects rates to rise.
Sell the future for 99.95 Implied rates have increased by 5bps
Buy the future for 99.90
Assume that at the beginning of May, you bought 10 May Fed Fund futures contracts of $5MM each at
99.90 (implied fed funds rate of 10bps).
At the end of May on the valuation date, the EFFR is 5bps which means the contract price is 99.95.
Buyer Seller
+$2,083.50 -$2,083.50
Clearing House
An FRA is a forward contract to exchange a payment based on the rate of interest at an agreed
future date.
ACME Corp Inc. needs to borrow USD $100MM for three months starting in one month’s time. ACME will
pay interest on this loan based on LIBOR.
ACME Corp is worried that interest rates are going to rise between now and when it needs to borrow
the $100MM in one month.
t+2 t+2
The FRA ends at the settlement date when any payments are exchanged, discounted at the fixing
(settlement) rate.
ACME Corp Inc. gets the following quote from an FRA broker:
BID - ASK
3.00 - 3.25
Scenario A Scenario B
On the fixing date (one month later) 3- On the fixing date (one month later) 3-
month LIBOR is set a 3.35%. month LIBOR is set at 3.15%.
• ACME Corp makes a profit of 0.10% as it • ACME Corp takes a loss of 0.10% and must pay
receives the difference between LIBOR and the the FRA broker.
contract rate from the FRA broker.
• ACME Corp has to borrow at 3.15%.
• ACME Corp has to borrow at 3.35%.
• But the real cost of funding is: 3.15% + 0.10% =
• But the real cost of funding is: 3.35% - 0.10% = 3.25%.
3.25%.
We entered a 1 x 4 FRA at 3.25% for $100MM. Imagine the settlement rate on the fixing date one
month from now is 3.35%.
Large Corp Inc. will be borrowing $50MM in two months time for 6 months.
The FRA broker provides the following quote US$ 2x8 2.55/2.65% p.a.
Two months from now the LIBOR settlement rate is 2.80%.
What is the FRA payment?
Once you solve this question, download the answer key from the next lesson.