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Intermediate Futures & Forwards

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Futures & Forward Contracts

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Types of Derivative Contracts

Common derivative contracts include forwards, futures, options, and swaps.

Forward Commitment Contingent Claims

Forwards Futures Swaps Options

This Course

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What Is a Forward Contract

A forward contract is an agreement between two parties to exchange an asset for a pre-specified price
on a specific date in the future.

Example 1
In one year’s time, Party A agrees to purchase 8,000 barrels of oil from Party B at $50 per barrel.

8,000 barrels of oil

$40,000 USD
Party A Party B
Example 2
In one month’s time, Party A agrees to purchase $500,000 USD from Party B for $675,000 CAD.

Example 3
In five year’s time, Party A agrees to purchase 600 troy ounces of gold from Party B for $900,000 USD.

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What Is the Purpose of a Forward Contract

Forwards are over-the-counter contracts. Although they can be used for speculating, the
customizability makes forwards very useful for hedging.

For example, industries that heavily rely on commodities, such as an airline on jet fuel, can hedge the
price of fuel using forwards to reduce volatile prices.

Hedging VS Speculating

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What Is a Futures Contract

A futures contract is similar to a forward contract. It is an agreement to exchange an underlying


asset for a pre-specified price at a specified date in the future.

The major differences include:

01 Futures contracts are traded on exchanges rather than over-the-counter

02 Futures contracts have standardized contract terms

03 Futures contracts involve margins

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What Is the Purpose of a Futures Contract

Futures contracts are often used for hedging; however, the liquidity of futures contracts and the ability
to leverage through margins makes futures attractive for speculating.

Liquidity Leverage through margins

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Futures Contract Specifications

A futures contract is an agreement to exchange a commodity for a pre-specified price at a specified


date in the future.

Today Delivery Date

• Contract size: the defined volume • Physical delivery: commodity delivered in


exchange for cash
• Tick value: the minimum price fluctuation per
contract OR

• Ticker: an individual code that exchanges • Cash settlement: gains and losses exchanged
assign to the commodity future in cash entirely
• Initial margin: the amount of money that
needs to be deposited as a guarantee
• Price: the agreed contract price

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Mechanics of the Exchange – Margins

A major difference between forwards and futures is that futures contracts are settled daily.
A counterparty’s margin account is credited or debited as the spot price of the underlying asset changes.

Counterparty A Margin Call Counterparty B

If the margin account of the buyer or seller falls below a certain point, known as the minimum required
margin or secondary margin, a margin call will happen.

The counterparty is required to deposit more money into the margin account to retain their position.

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Futures Contract – Worked Example

We are going to calculate the margin requirements


for the following contract:

Oil Futures Contract


Delivery Date 3 days from now
Futures Price $50.00 USD per barrel
Contract Size 1,000 barrels
Tick $0.01
Tick Value $10 ($0.01 tick x 1,000 barrels)
Settlement Physical Delivery
Initial Margin $5,000 The amount needed to deposit
Maintenance Margin $3,000 Minimum balance required
Number of Contracts 10 10,000 barrels (10 contracts x
1,000 barrels)

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Futures Contract – Worked Example

Exposure: $50/bbl x 1,000 bbls x 10 contracts = $500,000 Tick: $0.01 per barrel

Initial Margin: $5,000 x 10 contracts = $50,000 Tick Value: 1,000 x $0.01 x 10 contracts = $100

Maintenance Margin: $3,000 x 10 contracts = $30,000

Day 1 Day 2 Day 3 (Expiration)


Settlement Price $51.10/barrel $47.50/barrel $50.20/barrel
Beginning Margin Account $50,000 $61,000 $50,000
Tick Movement 110 -360 270
Change to Margin Account +$11,000 -$36,000 +$27,000
Total Before Margin Call $61,000 $25,000 $77,000
Margin Call $0 $25,000 Margin Call 0
Ending Margin Account $61,000 $50,000 $77,000
Deposited Amount $50,000 $75,000 $75,000
Net Gain(Loss) $11,000 -$25,000 $2,000

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Pricing Futures Contracts

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How Are Futures Prices Calculated

Imagine that you plan to buy 1,000 barrels of oil in 1 year’s time. There are two strategies you can
consider:

Strategy 1: Buy Now and Hold Strategy 2: Buy a Futures Contract

Borrow money to buy the 1,000 barrels of oil Buy the futures contract for 1,000 barrels of
at the spot price and hold it for one year. oil with an expiration in one year’s time.
At the one-year mark you would pay back the The cost in this scenario would simply be the
amount and any interest. cost of the futures contract.

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How Are Futures Prices Calculated

Let’s assume the spot price is $50/barrel, the cost of borrowing is 5%, and the cost of storing 1,000
barrels of oil is $2,000.
Let’s also assume a 1-year futures contract is priced at $55/barrel (or $55,000 per contract).

Strategy 1: Buy Now and Hold Strategy 2: Buy a Futures Contract

Cost = Spot Price + Carry Cost (Interest + Cost = Futures Contract Price
Storage)
Cost = $50 x 1,000 + ($50 x 1,000) x 5% + $2,000 Cost = $55,000
Cost = $54,500

If this were the case, what could an investor do to profit from this situation?

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How Are Futures Prices Calculated

If the spot price and futures price are not in equilibrium, there is an arbitrage opportunity:

Action Cash Position


Strategy 1: Buy and Hold
Borrow $50,000 +50,000
Cost = $54,500 Buy 1,000 barrels of oil at the spot price -50,000
Pay interest and storage costs -4,500
Sell a futures contract for 1,000 barrels +55,000
Repay the loan -50,000
Total: +$500
Strategy 2: Sell a Futures Contract
Cost = $55,000

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The Futures Price Formula

Futures Price = Spot Price + Carry Costs – Carry Return

Note: small arbitrage opportunities may not be exploited because of transaction costs in practice.

Carry Costs Carry Returns


Interest Coupons
Transport and Warehousing Dividends
Insurance Convenience (consumable assets)

• Premium to hold the underlying commodity


instead of the futures contract
• Driven by scarcity and high demand

The difference between the futures price and spot price is not the expected price appreciation or
depreciation of the underlying asset.

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Contango and Backwardation Markets

Futures Price = Spot Price + Carry Costs – Carry Return

Price

Contango Market

Spot Price

Backwardation Market

Settlement

Contango Market: Carry Cost > Carry Return


Backwardation Market: Carry Cost < Carry Return

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Commodity Futures – Crude WTI Overview

Commodity futures are typically


contango (since carry costs >
carry returns)

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Commodity Futures – Crude WTI Contracts

Increasing Price

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Equity Index Futures – FTSE 100

Equity index futures are typically


a backwardation market (since
carry costs < carry returns)

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Equity Index Futures – FTSE 100 Contracts

Decreasing Price

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Pricing Futures Example

An investor living in Seattle, Washington, wishes to purchase 100 troy oz of gold in June from Wisconsin.

The storage fees are 2%, the cost of insurance is 3%, and the cost of transportation is $5 per troy oz.
The investor borrows $170,000 and incurs a total interest expense of $500. The current price of gold is
$1,600/troy oz, and the futures contract is trading at $1,697/troy oz.

How much will it cost this investor to purchase 100 troy oz of gold?

Futures Price = Spot Price + Carry Costs – Carry Return

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Pricing Futures Example – Strategy One

Futures Price = Spot Price + Carry Costs – Carry Return

Strategy One (Cash and Carry)

Expenses Cash Position


Buy 100 troy oz of gold (100 x $1,600) -$160,000
Storage fees (2% x $160,000) -$3,200
Cost of insurance (3% x $160,000) -$4,800
Carry Costs
Cost of transportation ($5 x 100) -$500
Interest expense -$500
Total cost: -$169,000

Price/Oz: $169,000/100 = $1,690

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Pricing Futures Example – Strategy Two

Strategy Two (Buy a Future)

• Buy a futures contract


• Pay $169,700 in June ($1,697 x 100)
• Take delivery

Cost = Futures Contract Price

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Pricing Futures Example – Arbitrage

Arbitrage Strategy Cost


Cash Position
Borrow $170,000 +$170,000
Strategy One
Buy gold on the spot market -$169,000 $160,000
(Cash and
+ $9,000
Sell gold on the futures contract +$169,700 Carry)
Repay loan -$170,000
Profit: $700

Strategy Two
(Futures $169,700
Contract)

What will happen to the spot price and futures contract prices of gold?

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Commodity Futures Contracts

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Major Commodity Futures Categories

Grains and Oilseeds Softs Livestock

• Corn, wheat, oats • Lumber, cotton, sugar, • Farm animals


coffee, orange juice, (pigs, cows)
cocoa

Energy Base/Industrial Precious Metals


Metals

• Crude oil (and distillates), • Steel, copper, nickel, tin • Gold, silver, platinum,
natural gas, electricity palladium

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Futures Contract – Bloomberg Example

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Futures Contract – Ticker

Commodity: Gold
Gold Ticker

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Futures Contract – Ticker

Commodity: Gold
GC: Exchange Symbol

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Futures Contract – Ticker

Commodity: Gold
J: Delivery Month

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Futures Contract – Ticker

Commodity: Gold
J: Delivery Month

Delivery Months & Codes

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Futures Contract – Ticker

Commodity: Gold
0: Year

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Futures Contract – Contract Size

Contract Size

1,000 Troy Ounces = 10 GC Contracts

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Futures Contract – Tick Size and Value

Tick Size and Value

$0.1 x 100 Troy Oz. = $10

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Futures Contract – Price and Contract Value

Price &
Contract Value

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Futures Contract – First and Last Trade

First and Last Trade

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Futures Contract – First Notice

CME Comex gold futures require physical delivery.

First Notice Date: the futures contract buyer may be required to


take physical delivery of the commodity on the first notice date.

If not, the trader needs to close out their position before the
first notice day.

First Notice

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Futures Contract – Delivery Month

Delivery Month

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Futures Contract – Available Contracts

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Futures Contract – Available Contracts

Futures Schedule

Use the scrollbar to view


more delivery dates

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Futures Contract – Volume and Liquidity

The highest liquidity is always in


the shorter maturities with the
most market depth and size.

Liquidity in commodity futures


almost always decreases as you
go out further in maturity.
Volume

Futures traders will receive the


Highest Volume best execution fills where there
is the greatest liquidity.

Volume declines as the delivery


date gets close.

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Futures Contract – Bid/Ask Spreads

Bid/Ask Spread

0.30
Futures traders will receive the
0.10 best execution fills where there
0.20
0.20 is the greatest liquidity.
0.20
0.40
0.30
0.40
1.30
2.10
13.50

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Futures Contract – Open Interest

Open interest numbers are the


number of futures contracts that
have not yet been canceled by an
offsetting trade.

Open Interest

A contract with low volume but


a large open interest:
There are participants who are
willing to trade.

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Futures Contract – Open Interest

Open interest numbers are the


number of futures contracts that
have not yet been canceled by an
offsetting trade.

Open Interest

A contract with low volume but


a large open interest:
There are participants who are
willing to trade.

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Currency Forward Contracts

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Currency Forward Contracts Overview

Market Share by FX Products


Options
Currency Swaps 5%
2%

Spot
30%

FX Swaps
29%

Forwards
15%

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What Is an Exchange Rate

An exchange rate is the price of one currency in terms of another, also known as an FX pair.
FX that trades for T+2 (trade date plus two) settlement is called “spot”.

Example:
A trade of $1 million USD/JPY at 110.15 means that in two days’ time:

The buyer of JPY will remit The seller of JPY will remit
$1,000,000 USD. ¥110,150,000.

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How Are Currencies Identified

Currency codes fall under ISO code 4217. They are three letters long and comprised of:

US D
GBP CAD THB
Country Currency

However, the convention is not consistent anymore. A few confusing ones:

IDR vs. INR Nicknames – Swissy,


(Indonesian Rupiah EUR – Euro BRL – Brazilian Real Loonie, Kiwi, Aussie,
vs. Indian Rupee) Cable, Chunnel

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FX Pairs

Base Quote
Currency Currency

USD / SEK

USD / JPY

Base Quote
Currency Currency

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FX Pairs

Historically, we used the stronger currency as the base currency, but there are exceptions.

Higher Priority
Euro

Pound Sterling

Australian Dollar

New Zealand Dollar


Correct Quote Incorrect Quote
United States Dollar

Canadian Dollar EUR / USD USD / EUR


Swiss Franc EUR / JPY JPY / EUR
Japanese Yen
Lower Priority

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How Are FX Rates Quoted

Why is…

VS
USD/JPY = 110.15 USD/CAD = 1.3067

2 Decimals 4 Decimals

Market convention is to quote to 5 significant figures (”sig figs”).

Remember that the “0.” is also considered a sig fig so NZDUSD is 0.6593.

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Bid/Ask Spreads

The market quotes prices using the last two digits in a price.

EUR/USD = 1.1009-14
Bid/ask spread of
5 pips (points)

Big Figures (Big Figs) Pip (Point)

Largely ignored as Last digit in the price


market-makers assume
it is understood

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FX Forwards

FX forwards are agreements made today to deliver currency at some point


in the future, hence the word “forward”.
They are over-the-counter contracts with no payment or physical exchange
of funds upfront.

Trades are negotiated on No principal is exchanged FX forwards are more suited


“trade date” and settle on until the future date, known to hedging a one-time
“spot value date” (generally also as the ”delivery date”, payment rather than a
two business days from the or “forward value date”. stream of principal plus
trade date). interest payments.

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FX Forwards – ON

ON: Overnight

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FX Forwards – TN

TN: Tomorrow Next

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FX Forwards – SP

SP: Spot

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FX Forwards – SN

SN: Spot Next

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FX Forwards – 1W, 1M, 1Y

EUR/USD SP: 1.1273


1.1273 + 0.000171 = 1.127471
1W: 1 Week

1M: 1 Month
1 Euro in the future buys more US Dollars

1Y: 1 Year

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FX Forwards Example

A U.S. construction company, Buildco, signed a JPY 500 million contract to buy elevators from Liftco, a
Japanese company.
The contract will be paid in a year’s time. The USD/JPY spot rate is 110.00.

iUSD = 1.50%
USD $4.55MM $4.62MM

USD/JPY Spot USD/JPY Forward


= 110.00 =?

JPY ¥499.50MM ¥500.00MM


iJPY = 0.10%

Now t = One Year

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Calculating Forward Prices

Forward price is the relationship between exchange rates and interest rates.

Forward Exchange Rate = Spot Rate + Interest Rate Differential

1 + i𝒒 ⋅ t
F=S
1 + i𝒃 ⋅ t
Where:

F = Forward rate

S = Spot rate

i𝒒 = Simple interest rate of the quote currency

i𝐛 = Simple interest rate of the base currency

t = Tenor in years (calculated according to the appropriate day count convention)

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Calculating Forward Prices Example

iUSD = 1.50%
USD $4.54MM $4.61MM

1 + 0.001⋅ 1
USD/JPY Spot USD/JPY Forward F = 110.00
= 110.00 =?
1 + 0.015⋅ 1
= 108.48

JPY ¥499.50MM ¥500.00MM


iJPY = 0.10%

Now t = One Year

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Quoting Forward Rates

Forward differentials, or forward points, is the difference between the spot rate and the forward rate.

Spot FX rate = 110.00


Forward points = 1.52
Forward FX rate = 108.48

How to quote forward rates?

If forward points are quoted If forward points are quoted


high-low, subtract the points low-high, add the points to the
from the spot rate. spot rate.

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Quoting Forward Rates Example

GBP/USD Spot Forward Points


1.3022-1.3026 11-12

Correct Quote Incorrect Quote

Spot 1.3022-1.3026 Spot 1.3022-1.3026


+ + – –
Forward Point 0.0011 0.0012 Forward Point 0.0011 0.0012
=

=
=

=
Forward Rates 1.3033-1.3038 Forward Rates 1.3011-1.3014

5 points 3 points

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Another FX Forward Example

A client needs to sell forward USD $100 million for British pound sterling on January 3, 2021.

Dates Day Count

Transaction Date April 1, 2020 N/A Rates

Spot Value Date April 3, 2020 N/A GBP/USD Spot 1.2077-1.2079

Forward Value Date January 3, 2021 275 6-Month Forward Points 32.5-34.5

6 Months Forward October 2, 2020 182 12-Month Forward Points 37.5-40.5

12 Months Forward April 3, 2021 365

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Another FX Forward Example

A client needs to sell forward USD $100 million for British pound sterling on January 3, 2021.

0.00405 – 0.00345 0.00060 0.000003


= =
365 days – 182 days 183 points/day

Buy (Bid) Sell (Ask)


1.2077 1.2079 0.000003 x (275 – 182 days) = 0.000279
32.5 34.5
37.5 40.5
GBP/USD Spot 1.2079
6-Month Forward Points 0.00345
Additional 93 Days Points + 0.000279
Forward Rate 1.211629

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FX Forwards Exercise

Prove that you can add or


subtract the “Fwds Bid”
points to get the forward
rates for:

• 3-month
• 6-month
• 1-year

The answers will be


provided as an Excel file
following this exercise.

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Equity Index Futures Contracts

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Equity Index Futures Overview

Equity index futures allow investors to buy or sell an index today that will be settled at a future date.

Speculation Hedging

Using equity index futures to Losses on equity positions can be


predict an upward or downward mitigated by portfolio managers
price movement for an index. and investors through using equity
index futures.

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Common Stock Indexes

Equity index futures are based on various stock market indexes.

Example: Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). DJIA represents a portfolio of 30 large corporate
companies such as:

• Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)

• Coca-Cola Co. (NYSE: KO)

• Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA)

• Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT)

• Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC)

Can you name any other indexes?

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Major Stock Indexes – Bloomberg

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Major Stock Indexes – Bloomberg

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Major Stock Indexes – Bloomberg

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Selection of Equity Index Futures

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Selection of Equity Index Futures

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Index Futures Contract Sizes

For example, the CME S&P 500 contract comes in three sizes:

CME

Three Contract
Sizes Available

Micro E-mini
S&P 500 E-mini S&P 500
S&P 500

Contract multiplier: Contract multiplier: Contract multiplier:


$250 $50 $5

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Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract – Ticker

U: September
0: 2020

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Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract – Contract Size & Value

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Micro E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract – Margin Requirements

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract – Ticker

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract – Contract Size & Value

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contract – Margin Requirements

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E-Mini S&P 500 Futures Contracts

Quarterly

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How Index Futures Settle

Index futures contract cash settle as you cannot


physically deliver the index.

The cash settlement is calculated comparing the


equity index on expiration with the index “price” in the
contract.

If the price of the index on expiry > the contract price:


• The index futures buyer (who is said to be long the
index) has made a profit.
• The index futures seller (who is said to be short the
index) incurs a loss.

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Using Equity Index Futures to Speculate or Hedge

Speculating
OR Hedging

• Anticipate rise: buy (long). • Commonly used by equity


• Anticipate fall: sell (short). buy-side portfolio managers.

• Leverage with an initial margin. • Anticipate decline in equity


portfolio: short equity index
futures to hedge some risk.

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Equity Index Future Speculation Example

A trader enters into a E-mini CME S&P 500 futures contract


at a level of 3,000 expecting the S&P 500 to increase.

If the futures contract increases by 125 index points or


by 500 ticks, what would the contract value be worth and
what profit would the trader make?

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Equity Index Future Speculation Answer

A trader enters into a E-mini CME S&P futures contract at a


level of 3,000.

3,000 x $50 multiplier = $150,000


500 ticks x $12.50 tick value = $6,250
Total Contract Value = $156,250
Profit = $6,250

Alternate Calculation:
Since 4 ticks equals 1 index point;
500 ticks ÷ 4 ticks/index point = 125 index points
125 index points x $50 multiplier = $6,250

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Index Futures Contract Example

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Index Futures Contract Example – Profit

Index > Contract Price = Buyer Profits

Index in September: 13,000


Contract Index: 12,513.50
Difference = 486.50

Profit = 486.50 * 25 EUR (Contract Size)


= 12,162.50 EUR

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Calculating the Fair Value of an Equity Index Future

Futures Price = Spot Price + Carry Costs – Carry Return

Carry Costs Carry Returns


Interest Coupons
Transport and Warehousing Dividends
Insurance Convenience (consumable assets)

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Equity Index Futures – FTSE 100 Contracts

Decreasing Price

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Calculating the Fair Value of an Equity Index Future

Rx N
Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360

• Fair Value of the Future = The value of the equity index future
based on the spot index plus carry costs less carry returns
• Cash Index = The term used to reflect the spot index. For the
S&P 500, it is called the S&P 500 Cash Index.
• R = Interest rate required (derived from yield curve)
• N = Number of days until expiration
• Dividends = Dividends realized until expiration (denoted as S&P
points)

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Fair Value of Index Futures Example One

If today is July 14, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
September 20, 2024?

Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 3,200
• Interest Rate: 0.30%
• Days Until Expiration: 68 (9 weeks, 5 days)
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.89%

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Fair Value of Index Futures Answer One

If today is July 14, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
September 20, 2024?

Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 3,200
• Interest Rate: 0.30%
• Days Until Expiration: 68 (9 weeks, 5 days) Convert to S&P Dividend Points:
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.89%
Cash Index (3,200) x Dividend Yield (1.89%) = 60.48

68
60.48 S&P points/year x = 11.424
360
What would you do if the Equity Index
Future was trading at 3,200?

0.003 x 68
Fair Value of the Future = 3,200 x 1 + – 11.424 = 3,190.39
360

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Index Arbitrage

Rich(+)/Cheap(-) = Futures Price – Fair Value of the Future


= 3,200.00 – 3,190.39 = 9.61 Rich

Index Arbitrage Opportunity: Index Futures Price ≠ Fair Value of the Future

If an equity index future is trading at a premium, it will trigger the bank to buy the underlying stocks in
the index and sell the index future.

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Index Futures Calculations

Fair Future = Cash Index + Fair Value


= 3,009.74 – 11.48 = 2,998.26

Spread = Future Price – Cash Index


= 3,003.00 – 3,009.74 = -6.74

Fair Value = Fair Future – Cash Index


= 2,998.26 – 3,009.74 = -11.48

Rich(+)/Cheap(-) = Future Price – Fair Future


= 3,003.00 – 2,998.26 = 4.74 Rich

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Index Futures Calculations Example

Verify that you can calculate the following:

• Fair Value
• Rich/Cheap

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Index Futures Calculations Answer

Fair Value = Fair Future – Cash Index


= 2,986.19 – 3,009.74 = -23.55

Rich(+)/Cheap(-) = Future Price – Fair Future


= 2,993.75 – 2,986.19 = 7.56 Rich

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Fair Value of Index Futures Exercise

If today is July 18, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
December 20, 2024?

Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 2,915
• Interest Rate: 0.25%
• Days Until Expiration: 155 (22 weeks, 1 day)
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.52%

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Fair Value of Index Futures Exercise Answer

If today is July 18, 2024, what is the fair value for an S&P 500 index futures contract expiring on
December 20, 2024?

Rx N
Information: Fair Value of the Future = Cash Index x 1 + – Dividends
360
• S&P 500 Cash Index: 2,915
• Interest Rate: 0.25%
• Days Until Expiration: 155 (22 weeks, 1 day) Convert to S&P Dividend Points:
• S&P 500 Dividend Yield: 1.52%
Cash Index (2,915) x Dividend Yield (1.52%) = 44.308

155
44.308 S&P points/year x = 19.077
360

0.0025 x 155
Fair Value of the Future = 2,915 x 1 + – 19.007 = 2,899.06
360

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Interest Rate Futures and Forward
Contracts

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Money Market Futures

Money market futures are futures based on short-term interest rates (STIR).

Parties use STIR The price of STIR


futures contracts futures is inverse
to take bets on to rates
the price

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Fed Funds Futures Contract – Bloomberg Example

FF: Exchange Symbol


K: Delivery Month
0: Year

Fed Funds: Excess reserves which commercial banks keep on deposit


within the US Federal Reserve.
• Borrowed/lent between banks and other market participants
overnight.
• Short-term loans which are typically unsecured and carry low
interest rates.

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Fed Funds Futures Contract – Contract Size

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Fed Funds Futures Contract – Tick Size and Value

Normally:
Contract Size x Tick Size
= Value of 1.0 pt

Thus:
5,000,000 x 0.0025
= $12,500

But CME changed the


value to $4,167 per pt.

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Fed Funds Futures Contract – Price and Contract Value

100 – 99.9250
= 0.075 or 7.5bps

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Fed Funds Futures Contract – FOMC Meeting Schedule and Rates

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Fed Funds Futures Contract – First and Last Trade

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Futures Contract – Valuation

On the valuation date (May 29, 2020):

Contract Valuation 100 – EFFR = Price

Sum of daily EFFRs


in the month
Daily EFFR
# Days in the Month

Volume-Weighted Average

Banks & Broker-Dealers

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Long Positions in Fed Funds Futures Contracts

A long position:
A trader that has bought now with the
expectation that the price will rise also
expects rates to fall.

Today One Month Later


Contract price: 99.90 Spot price: 99.95

Buy the future for 99.90 Implied rates have decreased by 5bps
Sell the future for 99.95

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Short Positions in Fed Funds Futures Contracts

A short position:
A trader that has sold now with the expectation
that the price will fall also expects rates to rise.

Today One Month Later


Contract price: 99.95 Spot price: 99.90

Sell the future for 99.95 Implied rates have increased by 5bps
Buy the future for 99.90

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Fed Funds Futures Contracts – Profit & Loss

Assume that at the beginning of May, you bought 10 May Fed Fund futures contracts of $5MM each at
99.90 (implied fed funds rate of 10bps).
At the end of May on the valuation date, the EFFR is 5bps which means the contract price is 99.95.

$10.4175 per Tick


Change 20 Ticks 10 Contracts x $208.35
20 Ticks x $10.4175
of 0.05 (1 Tick = 0.0025) = $2,083.50
= $208.35 per Contract

Buyer Seller
+$2,083.50 -$2,083.50
Clearing House

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Forward Rate Agreements (FRA)

An FRA is a forward contract to exchange a payment based on the rate of interest at an agreed
future date.

• Over-the-counter (OTC) product (i.e., not exchange-traded)


• Used by borrowers (known as FRA buyers) to hedge against the risk of rising interest rates.
• Used by lenders (known as FRA sellers) to hedge against the risk of falling interest rates.
• Used by speculators looking to take a bet on the future direction of interest rates.
• Based on LIBOR or EURIBOR – generally traded on the future level of 3 or 6-month LIBOR.
• No transfer of principal.

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FRA Example

ACME Corp Inc. needs to borrow USD $100MM for three months starting in one month’s time. ACME will
pay interest on this loan based on LIBOR.
ACME Corp is worried that interest rates are going to rise between now and when it needs to borrow
the $100MM in one month.

ACME Corp FRA broker


Asks for a quote in “1 x 4”

“One by four” is a 3-month FRA


1 month from now

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FRA Exercise

Read the following FRA quotes and fill in the boxes.

Notation Effective or Termination or Underlying rate


Settlement Date Maturity Date from
from now now
1x7 1 month 7 months 6-month LIBOR
3x6 3 months 6 months 3-month LIBOR
6 x 12 6 months 6 months 6-month LIBOR

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Forward Rate Agreements (FRA) – Timeline

Waiting Period (1 month)


1x4 FRA
Spot Date Fixing Date

t+2 t+2

Trade Date Settlement Date Maturity Date


“Forward Start”
Contract Period (3 Months)

The FRA ends at the settlement date when any payments are exchanged, discounted at the fixing
(settlement) rate.

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FRA Example Continued

ACME Corp Inc. gets the following quote from an FRA broker:

ACME Corp FRA broker


Asks for a quote in “1 x 4”

“One by four” is a 3-month FRA


one month from now

Quote is US$ 1x4 – 3.00/3.25% p.a.

BID - ASK
3.00 - 3.25

ACME Corp buys an FRA at 3.25% on a notional principal amount of $100MM.

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FRA Example Scenarios

Scenario A Scenario B

On the fixing date (one month later) 3- On the fixing date (one month later) 3-
month LIBOR is set a 3.35%. month LIBOR is set at 3.15%.

• ACME Corp makes a profit of 0.10% as it • ACME Corp takes a loss of 0.10% and must pay
receives the difference between LIBOR and the the FRA broker.
contract rate from the FRA broker.
• ACME Corp has to borrow at 3.15%.
• ACME Corp has to borrow at 3.35%.
• But the real cost of funding is: 3.15% + 0.10% =
• But the real cost of funding is: 3.35% - 0.10% = 3.25%.
3.25%.

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Calculation of the FRA Payment

We entered a 1 x 4 FRA at 3.25% for $100MM. Imagine the settlement rate on the fixing date one
month from now is 3.35%.

The 3-month payment 90 x


0.10% x $100MM = $25,000
calculation: 360

The present value of $25,000


= $24,792.36
this payment: 90 x 0.0335
1+
360

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FRA Payment Exercise

Large Corp Inc. will be borrowing $50MM in two months time for 6 months.
The FRA broker provides the following quote US$ 2x8 2.55/2.65% p.a.
Two months from now the LIBOR settlement rate is 2.80%.
What is the FRA payment?

Once you solve this question, download the answer key from the next lesson.

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