Water International

ISSN: 0250-8060 (Print) 1941-1707 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/rwin20

Engineered rivers in arid lands: searching for

sustainability in theory and practice

Aysegül Kibaroglu, Jurgen Schmandt & George Ward

To cite this article: Aysegül Kibaroglu, Jurgen Schmandt & George Ward (2017) Engineered rivers
in arid lands: searching for sustainability in theory and practice, Water International, 42:3, 241-253,
DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2017.1309906

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2017.1309906

Published online: 12 Apr 2017.

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WATER INTERNATIONAL, 2017
VOL. 42, NO. 3, 241–253
http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2017.1309906

VIEWPOINT

Engineered rivers in arid lands: searching for sustainability in

theory and practice
a b c
Aysegül Kibaroglu , Jurgen Schmandt and George Ward
a
Department of Political Science and International Relations, Faculty of Economics, Administrative and
Social Sciences, MEF University, Istanbul, Turkey; bHouston Advanced Research Center and Lyndon B.
Johnson School of Public Affairs, University of Texas, Austin, USA; cCenter for Research in Water Resources,
University of Texas, Austin, USA

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Beginning in the early twentieth century and progressing rapidly Received 28 November 2016
since the 1950s, large-scale water works have created engineered Accepted 20 March 2017
rivers. In dry-land basins they control flooding and provide water KEYWORDS
and energy to farms, cities and industry. Yet, they face numerous Engineered rivers; arid lands;
challenges. In 2013 we formed an interdisciplinary team to study SERIDAS; Rio Grande;
future conditions of nine river basins worldwide. This paper pre- Euphrates-Tigris;
sents the methodology and interim results for two of our basins, sustainability of dry-land
the Rio Grande and the Euphrates-Tigris. We conclude with a new water resources
definition of the sustainability of engineered rivers in arid lands,
using dependable reservoir yield under drought conditions as the
central indicator.

Introduction
Scattered around the earth, primarily in the subtropics, are dry-land basins whose river
channels have been significantly modified by human constructions designed for storage
and transfer of river water. These engineered rivers share several properties. Their
primary source of water is from adjacent region(s) of differing hydro-climatology,
tropical or mountainous (or both), where plentiful precipitation has historically pro-
vided reliable streamflows from glaciers, snowpack or rainfall. Over millennia, sediment
carried by occasional, often seasonal floods has accumulated downstream, creating
fertile land. Here the climate, enforced by the subtropical high pressures, is arid or
semi-arid. This climate limits large-scale agriculture without modern engineering works
to manage the distribution of water in response to the variation in time and space of the
availability of river flow. Over the course of the last century, in many river basins across
the world, large dams and extensive distribution networks have been constructed that
massively enhance age-old irrigated agriculture. While physical conditions in these river
systems share the properties mentioned, political, social and economic features differ
widely, as do arrangements for water governance.
Rivers in arid lands have enabled food production and settlements since ancient
times. The most outstanding examples of the rise of river-dependent civilizations

CONTACT Aysegül Kibaroglu aysegul.kibaroglu@mef.edu.tr

© 2017 International Water Resources Association
242 A. KIBAROGLU ET AL.

include the Nile, Euphrates, Tigris, Indus and Yellow. Native populations in the
Americas also found ways to enable human survival in dry-land river basins, providing
food and creating rich civilizations. With modern river engineering, an even larger
range of human needs are met by rivers in arid lands, most importantly flood control,
generation of hydropower and drought management. River engineering has brought
large benefits to basin farmers, cities and the entire world. But engineered rivers in arid
lands also face risks and challenges. Thus, we ask: how sustainable are engineered rivers
in arid lands?
In our project on Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands (SERIDAS,
http://harcresearch.org/work/SERIDAS) we study nine river basins: Rio Grande/Bravo
(US/Mexico), Euphrates-Tigris (Middle East), Júcar (Spain), Limarí (Chile), Murray-
Darling (Australia), Nile (North Africa), São Francisco (Brazil), Colorado (US/Mexico)
and Yellow (China). The sections below describe our research methodology, present
preliminary findings from the Euphrates-Tigris and Rio Grande/Bravo basins, and
suggest a new definition of what makes an engineered river in arid lands sustainable.

The SERIDAS network

To examine the future of engineered rivers in arid lands, the challenges they face and
suggested response strategies, we conducted preliminary studies in the Rio Grande/
Bravo basin and, in 2013, formed an interdisciplinary network on Sustainability of
Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands. Our team of natural and social scientists studies
current and future river conditions in the nine river basins listed earlier. The team
includes one expert for each of the nine river basins, and specialists on key issues such
as sustainable water use and management, energy and food security, climate change,
reservoir sedimentation, and demographics. Figure 1 shows the location of the
SERIDAS rivers over six continents. Figure 2 lists key features of SERIDAS rivers.

Figure 1. Location of rivers in the Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands project.
Reproduced with permission from the Houston Advanced Research Center.
 WATER INTERNATIONAL 243

Figure 2. Key features of rivers in the Sustainability of Engineered Rivers in Arid Lands project.
Reproduced with permission from the Houston Advanced Research Center.

The nine river basins were selected based on four criteria. First, their basins are
home to intensive agriculture supported by large reservoirs, with inflow from distant
areas with high precipitation. Second, they represent diversity in geographical location,
socio-economic conditions and basin management. Third, our team members have
detailed knowledge of them. Fourth, team members share an interest in better under-
standing river sustainability.

Sustainability of water resources

To evaluate river challenges and develop suitable response strategies, the SERIDAS
project uses the concepts of sustainability science: linking local to global conditions;
studying issues using an interdisciplinary framework; integrating the experience of
basin stakeholders; and providing sound scientific guidance to decision makers for
implementing step-by-step programmes designed to improve sustainability (Kates et al.,
2000; National Research Council, 1999).
In 1998 the American Society of Civil Engineers published Sustainability Criteria for
Water Resource Systems (ASCE, 1998). In 1999, their definition of a sustainable water
resource was slightly refined by ASCE committee member D. P. Loucks: “Sustainable
water resource systems are those designed and managed to fully contribute to the
objectives of society, now and in the future, while maintaining their ecological, envir-
onmental and hydrological integrity” (Loucks & Gladwell, 1999). In 2015, ASCE
commented as follows: “Somewhat surprisingly, given the urgent stressors associated
with rising global temperatures and competitive demands on water, definitions of
sustainability [of water resources] have not been particularly evident in the intervening
years” (McMahon, Hilger, & Surbeck, 2015).
244 A. KIBAROGLU ET AL.

The SERIDAS methodology

Our project builds on this conceptual development and adds significant steps.

Reservoir impact assessments

We have divided the SERIDAS rivers into segments defined by successive reservoir
impact areas: the storage lake and the socio-economic impact region, which is created
and supported by water from engineered dams. So far, we have conducted reservoir
impact assessments for four reservoirs each in the Euphrates-Tigris and Rio Grande
basins (Kibaroglu & Schmandt, 2016). Each reservoir assessment describes the reser-
voir’s functions, history, governance and impacts on the regional economy and demo-
graphy. We identify the uses of the storage lake, the area supported by dam releases,
and the management and maintenance of the reservoir, as well as the economic
development – irrigated agriculture, cities and industries – that was made possible by
water from the storage lake or dam releases.
To illustrate our approach, Figure 3 shows the reservoir impact areas of two
segments of the Rio Grande. The Paso del Norte impact region is the result of the
Elephant Butte reservoir, while the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs support the Lower

Figure 3. Paso del Norte and Lower Rio Grande Valley: main reservoirs and socio-economic impact
regions in two segments of the Rio Grande. Source: Schmandt, Ward, & North (2013).
 WATER INTERNATIONAL 245

Rio Grande impact region. In each case, the impact area, thanks to the reservoir, has
vastly greater agricultural production and city growth. In our study of the Lower Rio
Grande impact area, we identified challenges and suggested responses (Kibaroglu &
Schmandt, 2016; Schmandt et al., 2000):

Challenges
● By 2030, the Lower Rio Grande will carry 26% less water.
● Each decade the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs lose 5% of storage volume to
sedimentation.
● Under drought conditions, the reservoirs are not able to satisfy existing water
rights.
● Population in the impact area will double by the year 2030.
● Agriculture will lose part of its water allocation to cities.

Responses
● The system is flexible. Small increases in irrigation efficiency can release significant
amounts of water for other uses.
● Long-term reductions in water supply of 20–40% are likely to have only a small
impact on the regional economy, provided efficient irrigation technology, less water-
intensive cropping patterns and underground distribution systems are implemented.

Developing a water-budget model

In the Rio Grande test study, we developed and tested a water-budget model
specifically designed to quantify water supply and demand in reservoir-dominated
rivers (Schmandt et al., 2000; Schmandt, Ward, & North, 2013). The model is driven
by river flows into the reservoir system (from historical data or future climate-driven
surface water projections), and past, current or future water demand for munici-
palities, industry, irrigated agriculture and the environment. The value of water-
budget modelling is to provide a quantitative basis for the exploration of alternative
future scenarios coupled with adaptive water management strategies. As Figure 4
shows, the water supply and use node (labelled Hydrology) integrates the various
study components. Using this water-budget model, we quantify the linkages between
water supply, sedimentation, environment, land use, water use and population
(Ward, 2014). We summarized our water-budget-based projections for water avail-
ability in the Rio Grande segment from the Amistad-Falcon reservoirs to the Gulf of
Mexico in the above section on reservoir-impact assessments. Here we add our
worst-case finding. The irrigation shortfall would increase to about 50% of potential
irrigation demand if extreme drought conditions and reduced Conchos deliveries,
due to internal development in this Mexican basin, are assumed (Schmandt et al.,
2000).
Our water-budget model enables the user to calculate monthly water demands
needed under the various scenarios of socio-economic development, and then
determine the surface water stresses that result from attempting to meet the
water demands. Monthly rather than annual resolution is preferable because
246 A. KIBAROGLU ET AL.

Figure 4. Water-budget model to quantify water supply and demand (Hydrology) in response to
change factors.

streamflow and water demand in arid lands change dramatically during the course
of the year.
To project future water supply and demand in SERIDAS rivers, we run the water-
budget model using existing estimates of climate change impacts, reservoir sedimenta-
tion and population growth. We then estimate what these change factors will add up to
under two future scenarios for 2040 and 2060 – Business as Usual, assuming no change
in water use practices, and Moving towards Sustainability, assuming improvements in
water use efficiency and water conservation.

Stakeholder engagement
We solicit input from water stakeholders in the reservoir impact region. In the Paso
del Norte segment of the Rio Grande, dependent on water from the Elephant Butte
reservoir (see Figure 3), we surveyed irrigation districts, city and county water
utilities, water management agencies, water planning groups and NGOs about
their views on current and future water scarcity and ways to cope with reduced
water supply (Appel, 2016). Our 22 survey respondents come from two states in the
United States (New Mexico and Texas) and one in Mexico (Chihuahua).
Stakeholders were asked about measures needed to address changing hydrological
conditions and severe droughts. They also were asked about their plans for making
their river segment more drought-resistant. Their answers are summarized in
Table 1.
We presented the survey results at a stakeholder workshop convened in May 2016 by a
local NGO, the Paso del Norte Water Taskforce, and the International Boundary and
Water Commission (Appel, 2016). Experts reported on regional population projections,
climate change impacts, reservoir sedimentation, and projected water supply and demand
 WATER INTERNATIONAL 247

Table 1. Paso del Norte stakeholder views on measures needed for coping with water scarcity.
Water governance
Irrigation districts City and county water utilities agencies Water planning agencies
Invest in efficient Improve handling of leaks and Engage less with politics Hire personnel more qualified/
irrigation efficient management of and more with actions trained on the importance
technologies groundwater sources and investments of the resource
Incentivize water Incentivize water conservation n/a Include climate change in
conservation long-term plans
Reduce transmission Encourage conservation Encourage conservation Encourage conservation
losses
Realize fallow leasing Increase system efficiencies Explore water rights for Explore water rights for the
programme the river river
Maintain Realize water conservation Practice water Conduct strategic planning for
infrastructure and and ordinances conservation future use associated with
realize water anticipated growth
conservation

in 2030. Following discussion, the Water Taskforce announced that it would use survey
and workshop results to draft an action plan for coping with increasing water scarcity.

Calculating dependable yield of reservoirs

We use the calculated yield of river water available under normal and historical drought
conditions as a critical starting point for improved reservoir and basin management.
The fundamental problem for engineered basins in arid regions is the time variability in
the natural water supply (river flow). Reservoirs are essential in engineered basins
because they retain water during surfeit periods for distribution during drought. To
reliably operate heavily engineered water systems requires a long period of record of
river flow, either from historical measurements or from long-term simulations, to meet
minimal needs during periods of low river flow or drought.
The dependable yield of a reservoir is the constant volume of withdrawn water,
met without failure, during severe drought, specifically the ‘drought of record’; it is
also called the critical drawdown period (Linsley & Franzini, 1964). This is typically
quantified by application of a water-budget model of the reservoir in which succes-
sive approximations are specified for the constant withdrawal rate. An example
determination of dependable yield for the Lower Rio Grande is shown in
Figure 5, the simulated reservoir contents for 1945–60, which includes the drought
of record. The first two estimates of the constant withdrawal clearly bound the
dependable yield, since the reservoirs meet 200 Mm3/month through the drawdown
period, but fail in early 1953 for 250 Mm3/month. Additional approximations within
these bounds converge to 229.6 Mm3/month. While dependable yield is a theoretical
construct, it is the single most important management indicator for assessing
reservoir performance, and is often used as a basis for allocation of water from a
reservoir system. We argue that it needs to be carefully monitored and recalculated
whenever natural or social conditions in the basin reduce water supply or increase
water use.
248 A. KIBAROGLU ET AL.

Figure 5. Dependable yield calculation (229.6 Mm3/month) for 1945–60 combined contents of the
Amistad and Falcón Reservoirs on the Rio Grande, in tandem operation, constant withdrawals in
million cubic metres per month.

Comparing water governance structures

In each SERIDAS river basin report we analyze the organization and work of water
management institutions and the related set of rules, practices, compacts and treaties
through which decisions on water allocation are made and implemented. We recognize
that water governance policies need to be tailored to different places and cultures, and
that governance agencies have to adapt to changing circumstances (OECD, 2015). Here,
we report on our comparison of policy arrangements in the Euphrates-Tigris and Rio
Grande basins. We wanted to find out how difficult or easy it will be for the river-basin
institutions to address river sustainability issues.

Euphrates-Tigris
The water question emerged on the regional agenda in the Euphrates-Tigris basin
when the three riparian nations, namely Iraq, Syria and Turkey, initiated major
water and land resources development projects. As the national water development
ventures progressed, mismatches between water supply and demand occurred
throughout the river basin. The ad hoc technical negotiations were unable to
prepare the ground for a comprehensive treaty on equitable and effective trans-
boundary water management. The political linkages established between trans-
boundary water issues and non-riparian security issues also exacerbated the
disagreements over water sharing and allocation. In 1987 and 1990 two bilateral
protocols – acknowledged by all riparian states as being interim agreements – were
 WATER INTERNATIONAL 249

signed following a number of high-level meetings of top officials in the basin

(Kibaroglu, 2002). However, these bilateral accords failed to include basic compo-
nents of sustainable water resources management, namely water quality manage-
ment, environmental protection and stakeholder engagement. Furthermore, both
treaties failed to address fluctuations in flow, meaning that they contained no
clauses referring to the periods of drought that occur frequently in the basin and
cause drastic changes in the flow regime that require urgent adjustment to the use
of the rivers. The water sharing protocols also lack an effective organizational
backup, at least in the form of joint monitoring of these agreements. Even though,
in the early 1980s, the Euphrates-Tigris basin countries managed to build an
institutional framework, namely the Joint Technical Committee, they did not
empower it with a clear and jointly agreed mandate. Instead, the riparian countries
continued unilateral and uncoordinated water and land development ventures. The
committee meetings did not make an effective contribution to the settlement of
the transboundary water dispute nor provide a platform for delineating the
priorities and needs of riparian nations as a basis for addressing regional water
problems (Kibaroglu & Scheumann, 2013). The riparian states had adopted com-
petitive economic development policies for food and energy security in the basin.
Hence, these water and land resources projects were carried out unilaterally and
mainly with a development focus short of sufficient care for ecosystem protection.
If they continue these uncoordinated and competitive water development projects,
this will produce more tensions in the region, as well as unsustainable use
and management of resources and the loss of ecosystems (Kibaroglu & Gürsoy,
2015).

Rio Grande
The Rio Grande/Bravo offers a different picture. There have been disputes among states
and countries, to be sure. Even now Texas is in court suing the Rio Grande Compact,
which was designed to share Rio Grande waters among Colorado, New Mexico and
Texas. During the ongoing drought in the Paso del Norte, New Mexico farmers have
increased pumping of groundwater to make up for reduced river allocations. Texas
claims that this practice reduces downstream river water. In the 1990s, Mexico fell
behind in treaty obligations to deliver Conchos water to Texas. But these disputes pale
when looking at the total of bi-national water relations between the United States and
Mexico (Schmandt et al., 2013).
Under the 1906 convention, Mexico receives 60,000 acre-feet per year to support
agriculture in Chihuahua. The main treaty dates from 1944 and regulates water
sharing and governance in both the Colorado and the Rio Grande/Bravo. In
exchange for Colorado water sent to Mexico, the US receives 350,000 acre-feet per
year from the Conchos, securing the water supply for the Lower Rio Grande. These
two countries jointly built and now administer the Amistad and Falcon reservoirs.
The 1944 treaty established a permanent institution, the International Boundary and
Water Commission (IBWC), to implement the treaty. The IBWC headquarters are
organized in Mexican and US sections, located only a few miles apart in Juárez and
El Paso, respectively. The commissioners, both professional engineers, stay in close
contact, and so do their staff members. The treaty authorizes a unique system of
250 A. KIBAROGLU ET AL.

mutually agreed Minutes, which provide an avenue for the IBWC to make progress
in areas where the treaty was unclear or has become inadequate. The system has
been used 320 times to adjust river management to changing conditions. Chitan
(2016) reviewed the long history of negotiations between Mexico and the United
States, preceding and following the 1944 treaty. He found multiple examples of
negotiators understanding problems encountered by the other side, as well as a high
level of comity to reach equitable solutions. In reviewing the Minute process, he
concluded: “The 320 minutes issued to date have set the stage for a deeper and
more proactive cooperation between Mexico and the U.S.. . . Much . . . can be done
through the minute process to ensure that the risks associated with drought and . . .
climatic events are not as acute as they could be in the absence of cooperation.”
Section G.2 of Minute 308, agreed to by the two governments in 2002, outlined this goal
for the IBWC: “Sustainable Management of the Basin: The Commission took note of the
desire of both Governments to convene a bi-national summit meeting of experts and water
users from each country for the purpose of providing the proper authorities and stake-
holders information concerning sustainable management of the Rio Grande Basin. Taking
the recommendations of the summit into account, the two Governments would consider a
bi-national sustainable management plan for the basin” (IBWC, 2002). This has not
happened yet. We urge the IBWC to follow this path and lead river organizations world-
wide in moving towards sustainable management of engineered rivers in arid lands.

Defining sustainability of water resources in engineered rivers in arid lands

We believe that following the principles of sustainability science in our study yields multiple
benefits. Linking global to regional conditions gives us the tools to evaluate and project the
basin-level impact of climate change and climate variation. Using an interdisciplinary team
helps us understand interactions between natural and social systems. Working with
stakeholders makes it possible to develop realistic improvement strategies for the sub-
basins created by reservoirs. Calculating the dependable yield of reservoirs under changing
conditions makes it possible to define an operational sustainable river future.
Based on the principles of sustainability science, and our study results so far, we
propose a measurable definition of the sustainability of engineered rivers in arid lands.
A reservoir-dominated river in arid lands is sustainable when five conditions are met:

(1) Nature’s water supply, averaged over the period of the most severe drought
experienced in the historical record, delivers a dependable yield sufficient to
meet human and ecological needs in the basin.
(2) To prepare for increased water scarcity, water managers and stakeholders jointly
and proactively search for ways to use water more efficiently.
(3) An ecologically prudent level of in-stream flow is maintained or restored.
(4) Whenever observed or projected changes in the natural system or human actions
modify river flow, the dependable yield of reservoirs is recalculated and water
management agencies, after consultation with governments and stakeholders,
adjust existing rules for water allocations to match the new level of dependable
yield of the reservoir.
 WATER INTERNATIONAL 251

(5) Reservoir impact assessments for a given river system are aggregated into a
basin-wide sustainability plan, which compares the results of reservoir assess-
ments to existing water sharing agreements between upstream and downstream
users. If adjustments are necessary, new agreements will be negotiated, which
should be based on equity considerations embodied in international law and the
history of cooperation in the basin.

Conclusion: the long road ahead

Our proposed new definition of sustainability of water resources can inform a
combined quantitative and qualitative approach to sustainable management of a
water resource, especially that of an engineered river in an arid region. To be able
to operationalize our definition, we argue that reservoir impact assessments should
be periodically conducted in heavily engineered river basins and accumulated in a
basin-wide sustainability plan. We equally emphasize that dependable yield is an
important management indicator for assessing reservoir performance, which needs
to be carefully monitored and recalculated whenever natural or social conditions
in the basin change. The water-budget model specifically designed to quantify
water supply and demand in reservoir-dominated rivers can provide a quantitative
basis for the exploration of alternative future scenarios coupled with adaptive
water-management strategies. Collecting input from water stakeholders is abso-
lutely essential, particularly in crafting measures (action plans) for coping with
water scarcity in reservoir impact regions. Likewise, comparative analysis of water
governance structures is important so that water management agencies can learn
from the experience gained elsewhere. Hopefully, this will encourage them to place
critical decisions for water sustainability high on their list of priorities.

Yet, we conclude with a few sobering remarks

Each of the proposed methods and criteria calls for a departure from the traditional
management practices of most SERIDAS basins. Their application presupposes a will-
ingness of the prevailing management culture to consider changes in their traditional
operational practices. We invite river management agencies, as well as water stake-
holders, to consider this fundamental change.
In instances where water becomes the core of, the trigger to, and a weapon in active
conflict, the goal of sustainable water supply and demand management is unattainable.
Sustainability of water resources requires stability, cooperation and peace. The sub-
state-level conflicts and illegal control of water resources and water infrastructure in the
Euphrates-Tigris deprive people of access to sufficient clean water, energy and food
resources in Syria and Iraq. We argue that the prerequisites for establishing or restoring
sustainability in a river basin include stability as well as establishing participatory,
transparent, inclusive and accountable governance structures.
252 A. KIBAROGLU ET AL.

Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the Houston Advanced Research Center, the Cynthia and
George P. Mitchell Foundation, and the Volkswagen Foundation for their intellectual and
financial support of the SERIDAS project. Aysegul Kibaroglu would like to thank the Scientific
and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) for the Post-doctoral Research
Scholarship (No. 1059B191501188) awarded to her under the TUBITAK-2219 Program.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Funding
This work was supported by the Houston Advanced Research Center, Cynthia and George P.
Mitchell Foundation and the Volkswagen Foundation.

ORCID
Aysegül Kibaroglu http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9648-5975
Jurgen Schmandt http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7139-6458
George Ward http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0767-9250

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