UTS ANALISIS RUNTUN WAKTU_LARISA SRI WAHYUNI SITORUS_4203230036)

Jumlah produksi ABS

Periode (ton) st bt ft PE ABS PE EROR EROR EROR^2
1 2154
2 3436 2154 1282
-
3 2876 3268 1198 4466 55.28512 55.285118 -1590 1590 2528100
-
4 2766 3956 943 4899 77.11497 77.114967 -2133 2133 4549689
-
5 2364 4138.5 562.75 4701.25 98.86844 98.868443 -2337.3 2337.25 5462737.563
-
6 3290 4277.875 351.0625 4628.9375 40.69719 40.697188 -1338.9 1338.9375 1792753.629
7 3952 4425.85625 249.521875 4675.378125 -18.3041 18.304102 -723.38 723.378125 523275.9117
-
8 3368 4283.164688 53.41515625 4336.579844 28.75831 28.758309 -968.58 968.579844 938146.9137
-
9 4250 4310.605891 40.42817969 4351.03407 2.377272 2.3772722 -101.03 101.03407 10207.88336
10 4736 4466.523849 98.17306914 4564.696918 3.617041 3.6170414 171.303 171.303082 29344.74578
11 3985 4390.787843 11.21853139 4402.006374 -10.4644 10.464401 -417.01 417.006374 173894.3162
12 4836 4532.204462 76.31757525 4608.522037 4.703845 4.7038454 227.478 227.477963 51746.22355
13 4608.522037
14 4684.839612
15 4761.157188
16 4837.474763
17 4913.792338
18 4990.109913
- -
TOTAL 323.5489 340.19069 9210.4 10007.967 16059896.19
Metode Chow

Jumlah produksi
Periode (ton) st bt1 ft-1(alpha) ft-1(beta) ft-1 (gamma) bt2
1 2154
2 3436 2154 1282 5145.333333 4077 3436 1282
3 2876 3268 1231.6 6141.733333 5115.4 4499.6 1214.8
4 2766 3979.52 1075.576 6489.197333 5592.884 5055.096 1023.57
5 2364 4247.7672 833.37736 6192.314373 5497.83324 5081.14456 752.644
6 3290 4543.801192 672.1743496 6112.208008 5552.062716 5215.975542 618.44
7 3952 4836.782879 558.4165509 6139.754831 5674.407705 5395.19943 520.497
8 3368 4787.039601 375.9686022 5664.299673 5350.992504 5163.008203 315.153
9 4250 4889.105742 293.7978639 5574.634091 5329.802538 5182.903606 266.408
10 4736 5048.832524 253.5765393 5640.511116 5429.197333 5302.409064 240.169
11 3985 4907.186345 135.0097236 5222.209033 5109.70093 5042.196068 95.4875
12 4836 4980.337248 116.4520775 5252.058762 5155.015364 5096.789325 110.266
13 5096.789325 5090.603443 5084.417561
14 5213.241403 5200.869639 5188.497874
15 5329.69348 5311.135834 5292.578188
16 5446.145558 5421.402029 5396.658501
17 5562.597635 5531.668225 5500.738815
18 5679.049713 5641.93442 5604.819128

bt3 ABS PE (ALPHA) ABS PE (BETA ) ABS PE (GAMMA) EROR(ALPHA) ERROR(BETA)

1282 49.74776872 18.65541327 0 -1709.333333 -641

1198 113.5512286 77.8650904 56.45340751 -3265.733333 -2239.4
971.56 134.6058327 102.2011569 82.75835141 -3723.197333 -2826.884
671.9116 161.9422324 132.5648579 114.9384332 -3828.314373 -3133.83324
564.7057 85.78139841 68.75570567 58.54029002 -2822.208008 -2262.062716
 482.578 55.3581688 43.58319093 36.5182042 -2187.754831 -1722.407705
254.3366 68.17991902 58.87744965 53.29596803 -2296.299673 -1982.992504
239.0174 31.16786097 25.40711854 21.95067308 -1324.634091 -1079.802538
226.7623 19.09862998 14.63676802 11.95965084 -904.511116 -693.1973332
55.96518 31.04665076 28.22336085 26.5293869 -1237.209033 -1124.70093
104.0803 8.603365628 6.596678327 5.392665946 -416.0587618 -319.0153639

TOTAL

759.083056 577.3667904 468.3370311 -23715.25389 -18025.29633 -14611.3218

B. Perbandingan statistic deskriptif kedua metode

Jawab :
Pada Holt didapati :

MAPE 28.34922405

MSE 833.9972465
SDE 1208.300692
MPE -26.96240958
Pada Chow sendiri :

MAPE 1 MAPE 2 MAPE 3

63.25692133 48.1138992 39.02808592
C. Apakah masih terlihat pola di dalam data untuk kedua metode tersebut?

Jawab :

Ya, pada kedua dapat dilihat pola

D. Metode terbaik dan alasannya

Jawab :

Ramalan metode holt lebih baik daripada ramalan metode chow, baik menggunkana alpha, beta,gamma, sesuai soal karena memiliki
nilai MAPE paling kecil.